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Origin Energy Limited (OGFGF) Fair Value & Analysis

Utilities · US · Market cap $14.3B

Price$7.92
Fair Value$7.14
Upside-9.8%
Quality95/100
Evidence: High Range $5.36 – $8.93

Analysis

Origin Energy Limited (OGFGF) currently trades at $7.92, while our model-based Fair Value estimate is $7.14 — implying the stock looks roughly 9.8% overvalued today. We read business quality at 95/100 (high quality), in the Utilities sector. Bear case: priced above our estimate, the market already discounts strong expectations. Bull case: above-average quality can justify a premium — the entry price still matters most (evidence: high).

About the company

Origin Energy Limited, an integrated energy company, engages in the exploration and production of natural gas, electricity generation, wholesale and retail sale of electricity and gas, and sale of liquefied natural gas in Australia and internationally. The company operates through Energy Markets, Share of Octopus Energy, and Integrated Gas segments. Its exploration and production portfolio includes the Bowen and Surat basins in Queensland; the Browse basin in Western Australia; and the Cooper-Eromanga basins in Queensland. The company also generates electricity from coal, wind, and solar; sells electricity, natural gas, and LPG; and provides GreenPower products. In addition, it sells, installs, repairs, and maintains solar photovoltaic systems and battery solutions; and offers internet products and services to residential and business customers. Further, the company engages in the e-mobility business. Origin Energy Limited was incorporated in 1946 and is based in Barangaroo, Australia.

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How we calculate Fair Value

Each company is valued through a stack of independent intrinsic-value models (DCF variants, residual-income, multiples and more), blended into one family-balanced consensus and weighted by how much trustworthy data backs it. A separate quality layer scores the fundamentals. Every input is real reported data — nothing guessed.

Educational research only · not financial advice · no buy/sell recommendation. Model-based estimates are not certainties; their reliability depends on data quality and assumptions.