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Origin Energy Limited (OGFGF) fair value: what the stock is really worth
As of Oct 2, 2026: fair value of Origin Energy Limited $5.47, price $8.44, upside -35.2%, quality 52 out of 100. Calculated from audited financials with 26 valuation models and 37 quality factors, updated daily.
- Fair value above price? No
- Good quality? Yes
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Broad data
Sep 23, 2026
Broad data
Sep 23, 2026
Origin Energy Limited
OGFGF · USStretched ValuationStrong overvaluation with only moderate quality.
!Fair value $5.47 · Strongly overvalued (−35.2%)
!Quality 52/100
!Mixed Growth (revenue 5y +5.8 %/yr)
!Thin margins · 6.2% net margin (TTM)
!Low debt · negative free cash flow
!7.1% dividend yield · Pays more than it earns
!Moderate moat 48/100
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What runs behind every stock
26
valuation models
8 families, DCF to NCAV
37
quality factors
margins, balance sheet, cashflow, debt
6
AI factors
moat, what no ratio measures
2,000+
data points
verified, per stock, median
69 individual criteria per stock, every one traceable See the method →
Price vs Fair Value
White line = price, green steps = our fair value per fiscal year, dashed = 300-day average. As of Sep 23, 2026.
How to read this chart
60‑month range $1.08 – $9.07 · fair‑value band $4.10 – $10.37 · the $8.44 price screens above the $5.47 fair value. Dashed = 300-day average. As of Sep 23, 2026.
Company profile
Origin Energy Limited, an integrated energy company, engages in the exploration and production of natural gas, electricity generation, wholesale and retail sale of electricity and gas, and sale of liquefied natural gas in Australia and internationally. The company operates through Energy Markets, Share of Octopus Energy, and Integrated Gas segments.
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Origin Energy Limited, an integrated energy company, engages in the exploration and production of natural gas, electricity generation, wholesale and retail sale of electricity and gas, and sale of liquefied natural gas in Australia and internationally. The company operates through Energy Markets, Share of Octopus Energy, and Integrated Gas segments. Its exploration and production portfolio includes the Bowen and Surat basins in Queensland; the Browse basin in Western Australia; and the Cooper-Eromanga basins in Queensland. The company also generates electricity from coal, wind, and solar; sells electricity, natural gas, and LPG; and provides GreenPower products. In addition, it sells, installs, repairs, and maintains solar photovoltaic systems and battery solutions; and offers internet products and services to residential and business customers. Further, the company engages in the e-mobility business. Origin Energy Limited was incorporated in 1946 and is based in Barangaroo, Australia.
Stock analysis
Origin Energy Limited (OGFGF) currently trades at $8.44, while our model-based Fair Value estimate is $5.47, 35.2% below the price, so the stock looks overvalued today.
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Valuation
Bull case: the Growth Earnings group reads highest at a median of $7.81 per share, and 1 of the 17 models we run sit above the $8.44 price.
Bear case: the DCF Models group reads lowest at $1.67, and 16 of the 17 models stay below the price. Evidence for this calculation is high.
Scenario range: $4.10 (bear) to $10.37 (bull), the price of $8.44 sits inside it. Bear and bull are the same models on cautious and optimistic assumptions, a range, not a price target.
Quality & growth
The Quality Score stands at 52/100 (solid quality), in the Utilities sector.
Mixed Growth: Revenue is growing, but margins or cash flow do not fully confirm the trend.
Origin Energy Limited reported revenue of A$17.1B in FY2025 versus A$11.9B in FY2021, a compound +9.6%/yr. Reported net income was A$1.5B in FY2025.
Key figures
Market cap $14.5B · P/E ratio 19.2 · P/S ratio 1.66 · EPS (TTM) $0.4200 · Dividend yield 7.1% · Net margin 8.6% · Return on equity 10.2% · Return on assets (EBIT) 1.7%.
Competitive moat
Our AI-assisted moat analysis scores the competitive advantage at 51 out of 100 (medium confidence).
What moves the price
The share trades about 7% below its 52-week high and 25% above its 52-week low, currently above its 200-day average.
For context, the median of 10 Utilities peers we cover trades at −47% fair-value upside, at −35%, OGFGF screens cheaper than that median.
Fair Value models
Bear $4.10
Fair Value $5.47
Bull $10.37
Model ⓘEach model values the company its own way (discounted cash flow, earnings, assets, dividends). The fair value above is their evidence-weighted blend, not the output of a single model.
Bear ⓘBear = the cautious scenario: the same model computed with conservative anchors (lower growth, margins and valuation multiples). Together with Bull it frames a plausible valuation range, not a price target.BaseBull ⓘBull = the optimistic scenario: the same model computed with favourable anchors (higher growth, margins and valuation multiples). Together with Bear it frames a plausible valuation range, not a price target. If a model's bull case is above four times its base value, the table shows that limit with a > sign (like the overall Bull above): beyond it no assumption holds.
Evidence ⓘEvidence = how well-backed THIS model's estimate is for this stock (0–100): how complete and reliable its input data are, and how well the model fits the company. The final Fair Value is an evidence-weighted blend, so better-evidenced models count more. Green ≥70, amber 50–69, grey below 50.
Highest evidence
Residual Income
$4.00
$4.98
$6.85
76
EPV
$1.61
$2.16
$2.64
74
ROIC Compounder
$1.61
$2.16
$2.64
72
All 17 models by family
DCF Models
Owner Earnings
$0.4700
$1.67
$3.51
70
Earnings-Based
Graham-Dodd
$4.06
$12.68
$16.87
65
Lynch FV
$2.76
$3.94
$5.13
61
PEG = 1.0
$2.76
$3.94
$5.13
57
EPV
$1.61
$2.16
$2.64
74
Dividend Discount
Gordon GGM
$3.67
$7.64
$12.12
66
DDM Multi-Stage
$3.67
$6.08
$8.02
66
Multiples
P/E Multiple
$6.28
$8.37
$10.46
63
P/S Multiple
$6.22
$8.30
$10.37
58
P/B Multiple
$5.41
$7.21
$9.01
55
EV/EBIT
$1.26
$2.25
$3.23
63
EV/EBITDA
$0.6800
$1.47
$2.25
64
EV/Revenue
$1.89
$3.43
$4.96
52
Asset-Based
NCAV (Graham)
$2.00
$2.68
$4.01
54
Economic Profit
Residual Income
$4.00
$4.98
$6.85
76
ROIC Compounder
$1.61
$2.16
$2.64
72
Growth Earnings
Growth-Adj P/E
$5.47
$7.81
$10.16
67
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Set up alert →Quality Score breakdown
Overall quality
52/100
Of which business quality 48 · Market factors (momentum, volatility) 67
Profitability
47
Margins and returns on capital today
Quality Growth
45
Are margins and returns improving?
Cashflow
5
Earnings quality: real cash, not paper profit
Fin. Strength
44
Balance sheet, leverage, solvency risk
Investment
88
Disciplined investing over empire-building
Low Volatility
50
Calm price path (market factor)
Momentum
62
Price trend over the last 3–12 months (market factor)
52W Momentum
96
Distance to the 52-week high (market factor)
Net Issuance
86
Share count: buybacks or dilution?
Revenue & earnings trend
Growth Quality ⓘGrowth is valuable only when reinvestment earns attractive returns (Aswath Damodaran): sustainable growth depends on return on capital, reinvestment and efficiency. Basis: total company revenue over the periods shown on the cards (3Y/5Y/all years), not per share, so a merger can show up as a growth jump; per-share earnings growth is in the value-creation card.
31/100
Revenue is growing, but margins or cash flow do not fully confirm the trend.
Revenue growth 1 year
+7.1%
Revenue growth 3 years ⓘMeasures the company's TOTAL revenue from reported annual statements: compound average growth per year (CAGR) from the fiscal year 3, 5 or N years back to the most recent comparable fiscal year. Not per share: buybacks do not change this number, and a merger can appear as a growth jump. Per-share growth (which does include buybacks) is in the value-creation card.
+6.0%
Revenue growth 5 years ⓘMeasures the company's TOTAL revenue from reported annual statements: compound average growth per year (CAGR) from the fiscal year 3, 5 or N years back to the most recent comparable fiscal year. Not per share: buybacks do not change this number, and a merger can appear as a growth jump. Per-share growth (which does include buybacks) is in the value-creation card.
+5.8%
Start year 2020 (pandemic). Over 10 years: +4.0% a year
Revenue growth 28 years ⓘMeasures the company's TOTAL revenue from reported annual statements: compound average growth per year (CAGR) from the fiscal year 3, 5 or N years back to the most recent comparable fiscal year. Not per share: buybacks do not change this number, and a merger can appear as a growth jump. Per-share growth (which does include buybacks) is in the value-creation card.
+11.1%
’14
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’25
What shareholders gained per year (last 5 years) ⓘWhat the business itself delivers per year: earnings growth per share plus the dividend yield. This is what you get IF the market keeps valuing the stock the same way: it contains no assumption about the market changing its mind. Computed per share, so buybacks count and a merger does not pass as growth. For a company that pays no dividend it is pure earnings growth per share. Period: earnings growth per share as CAGR over the last 5 reported fiscal years (annual statements), plus the current dividend yield. The start value is the median of the three years around the start, so a single crisis year (a pandemic or a write-down) does not distort the rate.
+25.6%
Earnings growth per share plus dividend.
Earnings per share, growth per year+18.5%
Dividend (yield on the price)7.1%
Pace: 5 vs 10 years ⓘTwo data points, not a trend model: earnings growth per share over the last 5 fiscal years against the last 10. Labelled "steady" when both rates are within 3 percentage points of each other, otherwise picking up or flattening. Shown only when ten years of history exist.18.5% vs 6.0%, picking up
Profit margin 2019 to 2025 ⓘOperating margin then vs now, from reported annual statements. A falling margin after a boom year is the classic peak-earnings signal: the growth rate then leans on an inflated base.12% → 6%
Start year 2020 (pandemic)
⚠ Revenue per share shrinking 2.1%/yr over ~10Y (margins eroding too) ⓘStructural-decline marker: revenue PER SHARE has fallen over the last decade (robust median trend, not a single year). Backtested across 2005 to 2017, such businesses trailed the market by about 2.5 percentage points per year. Display only: it does not change the fair value or the quality score.
OGFGF screens overvalued: fair value 35% below the price. Compare with Iberdrola, S.A →
Earlier news
News mood ⓘNews mood, the average tone of recent news (97 articles), rated against how stocks are usually covered. 🚀 Hype = unusually upbeat · 🙂 Positive = above average · 😐 Neutral = typical · 🙁 Negative = below average · 😨 Very negative = unusually downbeat. It reflects the tone of coverage, not our valuation.
Negative
Recent news coverage is more negative than average.
- Origin Energy GAAP EPS of $0.91, revenue of $15.57B
- Origin Energy Profit Rises Despite Weaker LNG Earnings
- Origin Energy and Landis+Gyr bring large-scale smart gas technology to Australian homes and businesses
- Origin Energy Flags Lower LNG Revenue and Cuts Octopus Earnings Outlook
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Peer GroupⓘHow this stock ranks against its industry: the green marker is this stock, the band is the typical 25–75% peer range, and the tick is the median.Utilities - Diversified · 49 stocks
Beats the industry median on 7/13 measures
A mixed picture versus its industry peers.
Valuation Multiplesvs Utilities - Diversified median · lower = cheaper
Context: sector, industry, market
- Is the Energy sector expensive or cheap?
- P/E, EV/EBITDA and margins by industry (reference tables)
- Undervalued stocks: Energy
- Undervalued stocks: US Stocks
- Valuation of the USA market
Values & ESG
Does this company touch areas you may want to avoid? The classification is inferred from sector and industry.
None of the checked exposures detected
Similar stocks
10 more Utilities - Diversified stocks, each showing price versus our Fair Value estimate.
| Stock | Price | Fair Value | vs Fair Value |
|---|---|---|---|
| Iberdrola, S.A IBE | €20.73 | €9.92 | −52% |
| Enel SpA ENEL | €8.67 | €3.30 | −62% |
| Engie SA ENGI | €22.52 | €20.64 | −8% |
| RWE Aktiengesellschaft generates and RWE | €59.10 | €43.37 | −27% |
| Sempra SRE | $78.05 | $43.34 | −44% |
| E.ON SE EOAN | €17.02 | €8.95 | −47% |
| ACWA Power Company 2082 | 171.00 SAR | 27.47 SAR | −84% |
| Brookfield Infrastructure Partners L.P. BIP | $35.79 | $18.02 | −50% |
| EnBW Energie Baden-Württemberg AG EBK | €68.00 | €21.11 | −69% |
| EDP, S.A EDP | €4.84 | €3.81 | −21% |
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Frequently asked questions
Is Origin Energy Limited (OGFGF) overvalued or undervalued?
As of Sep 23, 2026, our model estimates a fair value of $5.47 versus a price of $8.44, about −35% upside (overvalued).
What is the fair value of OGFGF?
Our model-based fair value for Origin Energy Limited is $5.47 (as of Sep 23, 2026), built from audited fundamentals. The current price: $8.44.
What is the quality score of OGFGF?
Origin Energy Limited has a Quality Score of 52/100. It measures business quality (profitability, growth, cash flow, balance-sheet strength, investment discipline, share issuance). Market factors such as price momentum and volatility do not enter the number; they are shown separately in the detail view.
What is the price target for Origin Energy Limited (OGFGF)?
Our model-based price target is the fair value of $5.47 (as of Sep 23, 2026) from 17 valuation models. Cautious scenario $4.10, optimistic scenario $10.37. It is a calculation from audited fundamentals, not an analyst target.
What is the Origin Energy Limited stock forecast for 2026?
Our models put fair value at $5.47, about −35% upside versus a price of $8.44 (overvalued). Cautious scenario $4.10, optimistic scenario $10.37. The calculation is refreshed regularly with new filings.
What is the revenue of Origin Energy Limited (OGFGF)?
Origin Energy Limited reported trailing-twelve-month revenue of about A$16.5B (latest available figure, as of Sep 23, 2026).
Does Origin Energy Limited pay a dividend?
Origin Energy Limited currently shows a dividend yield of about 7.11% relative to its recent price (as of Sep 23, 2026).
What is the intrinsic value of Origin Energy Limited (OGFGF)?
Intrinsic value and fair value mean the same thing: what the business is worth on its numbers, independent of the share price. For Origin Energy Limited it is $5.47 per share (as of Sep 23, 2026), against a price of $8.44. It is the blended result of 17 valuation models (cash flow, earnings, asset, dividend).
Is Origin Energy Limited stock overvalued or undervalued in 2026?
As of Sep 23, 2026, OGFGF trades above its calculated fair value: price $8.44, fair value $5.47, a gap of about −35% (overvalued). The calculation is refreshed with each new quarterly report, so the verdict can change during the year.
Is fair value the same as the market price of OGFGF?
No. The price is what the market pays today ($8.44); the fair value is what the company's own numbers justify ($5.47). For Origin Energy Limited the two are $2.97 per share apart. That gap is exactly why we show both numbers side by side.
How much is Origin Energy Limited worth?
The market values Origin Energy Limited at about $14.5B (market capitalisation, as of Sep 23, 2026). Per share that is $8.44; our models calculate a fair value of $5.47 per share.
What do the bullish and bearish scenarios say about OGFGF?
Our models span a range for Origin Energy Limited: cautious scenario $4.10, base $5.47, optimistic $10.37 per share (as of Sep 23, 2026, price $8.44). The range comes from different growth and margin assumptions, not from analyst opinions.
What is the P/E ratio of OGFGF?
Origin Energy Limited trades at a price-to-earnings ratio of 19.2 (as of Sep 23, 2026). A P/E on its own says little: it compares the price with ONE year of profit, while our fair value of $5.47 is built from several models across several years. Other multiples: P/B 1.4, P/S 0.9, EV/EBITDA 13.9.
How solid is the balance sheet of Origin Energy Limited (OGFGF)?
Balance-sheet figures for Origin Energy Limited (as of Sep 23, 2026): return on equity 10.2%, debt of 0.44 per unit of equity. They feed the Quality Score of 52/100, which measures business quality independently of the share price.
How far is OGFGF from its 52-week high?
Origin Energy Limited trades at $8.44, about 7% below its 52-week high of $9.07 and 25% above the low of $6.73 (as of Oct 2, 2026). Distance from the high says nothing about value: that is what the fair value of $5.47 is for.
Which stocks are comparable to Origin Energy Limited?
From the same area (Utilities) we also value Iberdrola, S.A, Enel SpA, Engie SA, RWE Aktiengesellschaft generates and, among others. Each of them has its own fair-value calculation on this site using the same models, so the comparison is like for like.
Is Origin Energy Limited stock attractive at the current price?
The data as of Sep 23, 2026: price $8.44, calculated fair value $5.47 (−35%), Quality Score 52/100, from 17 models. Whether that fits your horizon and risk tolerance is your call. We provide the calculation, not investment advice.
How is the fair value of OGFGF calculated?
We run Origin Energy Limited through 17 models from four families: discounted cash flow, earnings models, asset and balance-sheet models, and dividend models. Every model gets the same audited fundamentals; the result is the weighted average of $5.47, with the spread shown as a cautious and an optimistic scenario.
Is it still worth investing in stocks now?
The global stock market currently sits 14.5 % above its aggregate fair value. Origin Energy Limited itself currently trades above fair value. An expensive market is no reason to stay out and no reason to buy everything at once: keep a broad savings plan running, buy single stocks only with money you can do without, and hold part of your money liquid while the market is high. The full picture including sectors is on is it worth investing now.
What is the share price of Origin Energy Limited (OGFGF)?
The closing price on Oct 2, 2026 was $8.44. Our model-based fair value is $5.47, about −35% upside (overvalued). We carry closing prices from our data provider, not a live tick.
What should I pay attention to with Origin Energy Limited right now?
Solid but not exceptional quality (52/100) and above fair value, neither a clear bargain nor a standout compounder. A fairly wide model range ($4.10 to $10.37) leaves room in how you read the outcome.
Key figures of Origin Energy Limited
How large is the market capitalisation of Origin Energy Limited (OGFGF)?
The market capitalisation of Origin Energy Limited is $14.5B. The stock-market value of the whole company: share price times number of shares. It is what the market asks for the entire business today.
What is the P/S ratio of Origin Energy Limited (OGFGF)?
The price-to-sales ratio of Origin Energy Limited is 1.66 (P/E × margin). Price to sales: market value relative to yearly revenue. Useful when profit is thin or distorted.
What are the earnings per share of Origin Energy Limited (OGFGF)?
Earnings per share at Origin Energy Limited are $0.4200 (price ÷ EPS = P/E 19.2). Earnings per share over the last twelve months: total profit spread across every single share.
What is the dividend yield of Origin Energy Limited (OGFGF)?
The dividend yield of Origin Energy Limited is 7.1% (payout 143%). Yearly dividend relative to the share price. 3% pays 3 per 100 invested. Below: how much of profit is used for it.
What is the net margin of Origin Energy Limited (OGFGF)?
The net margin of Origin Energy Limited is 8.6% (fiscal year 2025). How much of every unit of revenue ends up as profit. 10% means 10 cents of profit per dollar of sales.
What is the return on equity of Origin Energy Limited (OGFGF)?
The return on equity (ROE) of Origin Energy Limited is 10.2% (last twelve months). Profit relative to shareholders' equity, how efficiently the company works with its owners' money.
What is the EBIT return on assets of Origin Energy Limited (OGFGF)?
On an EBIT basis the return on assets of Origin Energy Limited is 1.7% (avg 5y). Operating profit (EBIT) relative to everything the company owns, as a multi-year average. It describes the business model rather than one good or bad year.
What is the operating margin of Origin Energy Limited (OGFGF)?
The operating margin of Origin Energy Limited is 7.7% (last twelve months). Profit from the core business (before interest and taxes) relative to revenue.
How fast is revenue growing at Origin Energy Limited (OGFGF)?
Revenue at Origin Energy Limited is growing −9.0% versus a year earlier (3y avg +6.0%). How much revenue grew versus a year earlier (YoY). The 3-year average next to it puts the single year in context.
How fast are earnings growing at Origin Energy Limited (OGFGF)?
Earnings per share at Origin Energy Limited are growing −45.3% versus a year earlier. How much earnings per share grew versus a year earlier.
How much free cash flow does Origin Energy Limited (OGFGF) generate?
The free cash flow of Origin Energy Limited is −A$1.0B (fiscal year 2025). The cash truly left after running and investing in the business, this is what pays dividends and buybacks.
How much net debt does Origin Energy Limited (OGFGF) carry?
The net debt of Origin Energy Limited is A$4.7B (fiscal year 2025). Debt minus cash on hand. The note shows how many years of free cash flow could in theory pay it off.
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