Origin Energy Limited (OGFGY) Fair Value & Analysis
Utilities · US · Market cap $13.4B
Origin Energy Limited
OGFGY · US
Fair value as of: Jul 21, 2026
From 16 valuation models · updated 4 days ago
Fair value updated Jul 21, 2026, revised from $7.14 to $7.26 (+1.7%) since Jun 24, 2026. Share price −4.6% over the past month.
Price vs Fair Value (12 months)
12‑month range $5.54 – $9.70 · fair‑value band $5.45 – $9.08 · the $7.25 price screens below the $7.26 fair value. As of Jul 21, 2026.
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Origin Energy Limited (OGFGY) currently trades at $7.25, while our model-based Fair Value estimate is $7.26, implying the stock looks roughly 0.1% fairly valued today. We read business quality at 48/100 (below-average quality), in the Utilities sector. Bull case: trading below our estimate, it may offer upside if the fundamentals hold. Bear case: a low price can be a value trap when quality is weak or the data is thin (evidence: high), always confirm before acting.
Over the trailing twelve months, Origin Energy Limited generated revenue of $16.5B at a net margin of 6.2%. Revenue declined 9.0% year over year. It earns a return on equity of 10.2%. Net debt stands at $4.7B. Fundamentals as of Jul 21, 2026
Our scenario range runs from $5.45 (bear case) to $9.08 (bull case); at $7.25, the current price sits within that range. The share trades about 25% below its 52-week high and 9% above its 52-week low, currently below its 200-day average. For context, the median of 10 Utilities peers we cover trades at -32% fair-value upside, at 0%, OGFGY screens cheaper than that median.
Key figures & financial health
More key figures
Figures from reported company fundamentals (EODHD) · as of Jul 21, 2026. TTM = trailing twelve months.
About the company
Origin Energy Limited, an integrated energy company, engages in the exploration and production of natural gas, electricity generation, wholesale and retail sale of electricity and gas, and sale of liquefied natural gas in Australia and internationally. The company operates through Energy Markets, Share of Octopus Energy, and Integrated Gas segments. Its exploration and production portfolio includes the Bowen and Surat basins in Queensland; the Browse basin in Western Australia; and the Cooper-Eromanga basins in Queensland. The company also generates electricity from coal, wind, and solar; sells electricity, natural gas, and LPG; and provides GreenPower products. In addition, it sells, installs, repairs, and maintains solar photovoltaic systems and battery solutions; and offers internet products and services to residential and business customers. Further, the company engages in the e-mobility business. Origin Energy Limited was incorporated in 1946 and is based in Barangaroo, Australia.
Revenue & earnings trend
FY2021 – FY2025 · reported fiscal years
Origin Energy Limited reported revenue of $17.1B in FY2025 versus $11.9B in FY2021, a compound +9.6%/yr. Reported net income was $1.5B in FY2025.
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Recent news
- Origin Energy and Landis+Gyr bring large-scale smart gas technology to Australian homes and businesses
- Origin Energy Flags Lower LNG Revenue and Cuts Octopus Earnings Outlook
- Weak Statutory Earnings May Not Tell The Whole Story For Origin Energy (ASX:ORG)
- Origin Energy Limited Recorded A 6.3% Miss On Revenue: Analysts Are Revisiting Their Models
External third-party headlines (Yahoo Finance, Reuters and others), not an editorial selection, not financial advice.
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| RWE Aktiengesellschaft generates and 1RWE | €56.66 | €29.64 | -48% |
| SSE plc SSEZY | $30.78 | $20.80 | -32% |
| Brookfield Infrastructure Partners L.P. BIPUN | C$51.40 | C$42.92 | -16% |
| EnBW Energie Baden-Württemberg AG EBK | €70.20 | €54.43 | -22% |
| EDP, S.A EDPFY | $50.70 | $44.55 | -12% |
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How we calculate Fair Value
Each company is valued through a stack of independent intrinsic-value models (DCF variants, residual-income, multiples and more), blended into one family-balanced consensus and weighted by how much trustworthy data backs it. A separate quality layer scores the fundamentals. Every input is real reported data, nothing guessed.
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Not financial advice · no buy/sell recommendation. Model-based estimates are not certainties; their reliability depends on data quality and assumptions.