Okasan Securities Group (OKN) fair value: what the stock is really worth
As of Oct 1, 2026: fair value of Okasan Securities Group €7.73, price €6.90, upside +12.0%, quality 60 out of 100. Calculated from audited financials with 26 valuation models and 37 quality factors, updated daily.
In Frankfurt, only 1 of the last 21 trading days (30 days) had any turnover. On the other days the price is an indicative quote without trading, so we do not list this stock in the radar. It stays reachable through search.
OSSome dataSep 30, 2026
Okasan Securities Group
OKN · F
UndervaluedThe stock appears undervalued with acceptable quality.
✓Fair value €7.73 · Undervalued (+12.0%)
✓Quality 60/100
✓Healthy Growth(revenue 5y +8.3 %/yr)
✓Highly profitable · 26.6% net margin (TTM)
✓Low debt · generates free cash flow
✓3.1% dividend yield · Well covered
✓Ranks above peers(13/13)
✓Wide moat70/100
!Evidence only medium, so the estimate is less certain
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Price vs Fair Value
White line = price, green steps = our fair value per fiscal year, dashed = 300-day average. As of Sep 30, 2026.
How to read this chart
60‑month range €1.87 – €7.05 · fair‑value band €5.80 – €9.66 · the €6.90 price screens below the €7.73 fair value. Dashed = 300-day average. As of Sep 30, 2026.
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Okasan Securities Group Inc., together with its subsidiaries, engages in securities business in Japan.
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Okasan Securities Group Inc., together with its subsidiaries, engages in securities business in Japan. The company offers asset management; intermediation of securities transactions, handling of public offerings, handling of private placements of securities, and other; and securities trading services, such as buying and selling of securities, and brokerage of buying. It also engages in information processing services; administrative support; and real estate management businesses. The company was formerly known as Okasan Holdings, Inc. and changed its name to Okasan Securities Group Inc. in October 2008. Okasan Securities Group Inc. was founded in 1923 and is headquartered in Tokyo, Japan.
Stock analysis
Okasan Securities Group (OKN) currently trades at €6.90, while our model-based Fair Value estimate is €7.73, implying the stock looks roughly 10.7% undervalued today.
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Valuation
Bull case: the DCF Models group reads highest at a median of €14.83 per share, and 8 of the 12 models we run sit above the €6.90 price.
Bear case: the Dividend Discount group reads lowest at €1.79, and 4 of the 12 models stay below the price. Evidence for this calculation is medium.
Scenario range: €5.80 (bear) to €9.66 (bull), the price of €6.90 sits inside it. Bear and bull are the same models on cautious and optimistic assumptions, a range, not a price target.
Quality & growth
The Quality Score stands at 60/100 (solid quality), in the Financial Services sector.
Healthy Growth: Revenue growth appears healthy and is supported by profitability and cash-flow quality.
Okasan Securities Group reported revenue of ¥100B in FY2026 versus ¥83.9B in FY2022, a compound +4.6%/yr. Reported net income was ¥21.4B in FY2026, compounding +20.7%/yr from FY2022.
Key figures
Market cap €1.4B · P/E ratio 11.7 · P/S ratio 2.49 · EPS (TTM) €0.5900 · Dividend yield 3.1% · Net margin 21.3% · Return on equity 12.7% · Return on assets (EBIT) 2.4%.
Competitive moat
Our AI-assisted moat analysis scores the competitive advantage at 51 out of 100 (low confidence).
What moves the price
The share trades about 2% below its 52-week high and 97% above its 52-week low, currently above its 200-day average.
For context, the median of 10 Financial Services peers we cover trades at −15% fair-value upside, at 12%, OKN screens cheaper than that median.
Fair Value models
Bear €5.80Fair Value €7.73Bull €9.66
Model ⓘEach model values the company its own way (discounted cash flow, earnings, assets, dividends). The fair value above is their evidence-weighted blend, not the output of a single model.Bear ⓘBear = the cautious scenario: the same model computed with conservative anchors (lower growth, margins and valuation multiples). Together with Bull it frames a plausible valuation range, not a price target.BaseBull ⓘBull = the optimistic scenario: the same model computed with favourable anchors (higher growth, margins and valuation multiples). Together with Bear it frames a plausible valuation range, not a price target. If a model's bull case is above four times its base value, the table shows that limit with a > sign (like the overall Bull above): beyond it no assumption holds.Evidence ⓘEvidence = how well-backed THIS model's estimate is for this stock (0–100): how complete and reliable its input data are, and how well the model fits the company. The final Fair Value is an evidence-weighted blend, so better-evidenced models count more. Green ≥70, amber 50–69, grey below 50.
Growth Quality ⓘGrowth is valuable only when reinvestment earns attractive returns (Aswath Damodaran): sustainable growth depends on return on capital, reinvestment and efficiency. Basis: total company revenue over the periods shown on the cards (3Y/5Y/all years), not per share, so a merger can show up as a growth jump; per-share earnings growth is in the value-creation card.87/100
Revenue growth appears healthy and is supported by profitability and cash-flow quality.
Revenue growth 1 year
+19.3%
Revenue growth 3 years ⓘMeasures the company's TOTAL revenue from reported annual statements: compound average growth per year (CAGR) from the fiscal year 3, 5 or N years back to the most recent comparable fiscal year. Not per share: buybacks do not change this number, and a merger can appear as a growth jump. Per-share growth (which does include buybacks) is in the value-creation card.
+14.8%
Revenue growth 5 years ⓘMeasures the company's TOTAL revenue from reported annual statements: compound average growth per year (CAGR) from the fiscal year 3, 5 or N years back to the most recent comparable fiscal year. Not per share: buybacks do not change this number, and a merger can appear as a growth jump. Per-share growth (which does include buybacks) is in the value-creation card.
+8.3%
Start year 2021 (pandemic). Over 10 years: +2.1% a year
Revenue growth 12 years ⓘMeasures the company's TOTAL revenue from reported annual statements: compound average growth per year (CAGR) from the fiscal year 3, 5 or N years back to the most recent comparable fiscal year. Not per share: buybacks do not change this number, and a merger can appear as a growth jump. Per-share growth (which does include buybacks) is in the value-creation card.
+0.0%
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What shareholders gained per year (last 5 years), in JPY (mathematically smoothed) ⓘWhat the business itself delivers per year: earnings growth per share plus the dividend yield. This is what you get IF the market keeps valuing the stock the same way: it contains no assumption about the market changing its mind. Computed per share, so buybacks count and a merger does not pass as growth. For a company that pays no dividend it is pure earnings growth per share. Period: earnings growth per share as CAGR over the last 5 reported fiscal years (annual statements), plus the current dividend yield. The start value is the median of the three years around the start, so a single crisis year (a pandemic or a write-down) does not distort the rate. Smoothed = median of all growth paths between the years of the window (trend line on the logarithm of earnings per share): a single extreme year cannot distort the rate. The reported figure stays in the tooltip. Measured in JPY: this currency has depreciated against the euro and dollar over the long run, so part of the nominal rate is currency erosion that never reaches a EUR/USD investor.
+31.5%
Earnings growth per share plus dividend.
Earnings per share, growth per year+28.4%
Dividend (yield on the price)3.1%
Pace: 5 vs 10 years ⓘTwo data points, not a trend model: earnings growth per share over the last 5 fiscal years against the last 10. Labelled "steady" when both rates are within 3 percentage points of each other, otherwise picking up or flattening. Shown only when ten years of history exist.28.5% vs 7.3%, picking up
Profit margin 2014 to 2019 ⓘOperating margin then vs now, from reported annual statements. A falling margin after a boom year is the classic peak-earnings signal: the growth rate then leans on an inflated base.33% → 3%
2026 sits 85% above its own trend. The rate follows the median trend of the last 5 years, not that single year.
Start year 2021 (pandemic)
Growth Forecast
Little optimism in the price
The price assumes less growth than the company has delivered so far.
What the price assumes ⓘThis turns our valuation around: instead of asking what the share is worth, it asks what growth the current price requires. It uses the cash the company keeps after all spending (free cash flow), the same discount rate as our models, five years of growth, then slowing evenly to 2 % a year by year ten. Compared with the analysts' sales forecasts extended to the same five years (at least three analysts, for context only, it does not enter the Fair Value): within 3 percentage points counts as "in line" (amber), below that little optimism (green), above that a lot of optimism (red).
−17.3%
Yearly growth needed for the next five years to justify today's price.
What forecasts expect
n/a
No analyst forecast available.
After inflation (figures in JPY, Japan: IMF forecast 2.1% a year to 2030, 1.3% from 2016 to 2025) that is about −19.0% a year for the price.
Compare Okasan Securities Group with another stock
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Peer GroupⓘHow this stock ranks against its industry: the green marker is this stock, the band is the typical 25–75% peer range, and the tick is the median.Capital Markets · 456 stocks
Beats the industry median on 13/13 measures
Overall it ranks above its industry peers.
Valuation
Quality Score61 · Above median
Fair Value upside+11.2% · Above median
Profitability
Return on equity (TTM)12.7% · Above median
Return on assets1.9% · Above median
Net margin (TTM)26.6% · Above median
Operating margin (TTM)35.6% · Above median
Growth and dividend
Revenue growth66.6% · Top 25%
Dividend yield (TTM)3.1% · Above median
Balance sheet
Debt / equity0.03× · Below median
Valuation Multiplesvs Capital Markets median · lower = cheaper
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Cite: Fair Value Calculator (2026). "Okasan Securities Group Fair Value". https://www.fairvalue-calculator.com/stock/OKN
Frequently asked questions
Is Okasan Securities Group (OKN) overvalued or undervalued?
As of Sep 30, 2026, our model estimates a fair value of €7.73 versus a price of €6.90, about +12% upside (undervalued).
What is the fair value of OKN?
Our model-based fair value for Okasan Securities Group is €7.73 (as of Sep 30, 2026), built from audited fundamentals. The current price: €6.90.
What is the quality score of OKN?
Okasan Securities Group has a Quality Score of 60/100. It measures business quality (profitability, growth, cash flow, balance-sheet strength, investment discipline, share issuance). Market factors such as price momentum and volatility do not enter the number; they are shown separately in the detail view.
What is the price target for Okasan Securities Group (OKN)?
Our model-based price target is the fair value of €7.73 (as of Sep 30, 2026) from 12 valuation models. Cautious scenario €5.80, optimistic scenario €9.66. It is a calculation from audited fundamentals, not an analyst target.
What is the Okasan Securities Group stock forecast for 2026?
Our models put fair value at €7.73, about +12% upside versus a price of €6.90 (undervalued). Cautious scenario €5.80, optimistic scenario €9.66. The calculation is refreshed regularly with new filings.
What is the revenue of Okasan Securities Group (OKN)?
Okasan Securities Group reported trailing-twelve-month revenue of about ¥104B (latest available figure, as of Sep 30, 2026).
Does Okasan Securities Group pay a dividend?
Okasan Securities Group currently shows a dividend yield of about 3.10% relative to its recent price (as of Sep 30, 2026).
What growth is priced into Okasan Securities Group (OKN)?
For today's price to be fair in a discounted-cash-flow model, Okasan Securities Group would have to grow free cash flow by -17.3 % per year for five years (discount rate 10.1 %, then slowing evenly to 2 % perpetual growth by year ten). Over the last 5 years revenue grew +8.3 % per year. As of Sep 30, 2026.
What discount rate (WACC) does the fair value of OKN use?
Our models discount Okasan Securities Group at 10.1 %: a base by market capitalisation (small), damped by beta 0.66, country premium for Germany. The same rate applies in all 26 models.
What is a reverse DCF?
A reverse DCF turns the usual calculation around. Instead of deriving a value from assumptions, it takes today's price as given and asks: what free-cash-flow growth would a company have to deliver for exactly this price to be fair? The result is not a forecast but the expectation already priced in. For Okasan Securities Group that is -17.3 % per year a year over ten years, using the same discount rate (10.1 %) and the same formula as our fair value.
How much growth has Okasan Securities Group (OKN) delivered so far?
Over the past 5 years revenue at Okasan Securities Group grew +8.3 % a year. The price currently implies -17.3 % per year free-cash-flow growth a year. Comparing the two shows how much confidence is in the price: if it demands more than has been delivered, the business has to accelerate for the maths to work.
How fast is the sector of Okasan Securities Group (OKN) growing?
The median revenue growth in the sector is +9.2 % a year. That is the yardstick for the growth priced into Okasan Securities Group (-17.3 % per year a year): it shows whether the expectation is within the usual range or beyond it.
What is the free cash flow yield of Okasan Securities Group (OKN)?
The free-cash-flow yield on the price is 24.24 %: that much free cash flow Okasan Securities Group produces per unit of market value. When it exceeds the discount rate of our models (10.1 %), the business already earns more than its cost of capital demands, and the price needs little additional growth.
What is the intrinsic value of Okasan Securities Group (OKN)?
Intrinsic value and fair value mean the same thing: what the business is worth on its numbers, independent of the share price. For Okasan Securities Group it is €7.73 per share (as of Sep 30, 2026), against a price of €6.90. It is the blended result of 12 valuation models (cash flow, earnings, asset, dividend).
Is Okasan Securities Group stock overvalued or undervalued in 2026?
As of Sep 30, 2026, OKN trades below its calculated fair value: price €6.90, fair value €7.73, a gap of about +12% (undervalued). The calculation is refreshed with each new quarterly report, so the verdict can change during the year.
Is fair value the same as the market price of OKN?
No. The price is what the market pays today (€6.90); the fair value is what the company's own numbers justify (€7.73). For Okasan Securities Group the two are €0.8300 per share apart. That gap is exactly why we show both numbers side by side.
How much is Okasan Securities Group worth?
The market values Okasan Securities Group at about €1.4B (market capitalisation, as of Sep 30, 2026). Per share that is €6.90; our models calculate a fair value of €7.73 per share.
What do the bullish and bearish scenarios say about OKN?
Our models span a range for Okasan Securities Group: cautious scenario €5.80, base €7.73, optimistic €9.66 per share (as of Sep 30, 2026, price €6.90). The range comes from different growth and margin assumptions, not from analyst opinions.
What is the P/E ratio of OKN?
Okasan Securities Group trades at a price-to-earnings ratio of 11.7 (as of Sep 30, 2026). A P/E on its own says little: it compares the price with ONE year of profit, while our fair value of €7.73 is built from several models across several years. Other multiples: P/B 1.1, P/S 2.4.
How solid is the balance sheet of Okasan Securities Group (OKN)?
Balance-sheet figures for Okasan Securities Group (as of Sep 30, 2026): return on equity 12.7%, debt of 0.03 per unit of equity. They feed the Quality Score of 60/100, which measures business quality independently of the share price.
How far is OKN from its 52-week high?
Okasan Securities Group trades at €6.90, about 2% below its 52-week high of €7.05 and 97% above the low of €3.51 (as of Oct 1, 2026). Distance from the high says nothing about value: that is what the fair value of €7.73 is for.
Which stocks are comparable to Okasan Securities Group?
From the same area (Financial Services) we also value Morgan Stanley, a financial holding company,, The Goldman Sachs Group, The Charles Schwab Corporation, Interactive Brokers Group, among others. Each of them has its own fair-value calculation on this site using the same models, so the comparison is like for like.
Is Okasan Securities Group stock attractive at the current price?
The data as of Sep 30, 2026: price €6.90, calculated fair value €7.73 (+12%), Quality Score 60/100, from 12 models. Whether that fits your horizon and risk tolerance is your call. We provide the calculation, not investment advice.
How is the fair value of OKN calculated?
We run Okasan Securities Group through 12 models from four families: discounted cash flow, earnings models, asset and balance-sheet models, and dividend models. Every model gets the same audited fundamentals; the result is the weighted average of €7.73, with the spread shown as a cautious and an optimistic scenario.
Is it still worth investing in stocks now?
The global stock market currently sits 14.5 % above its aggregate fair value. Okasan Securities Group currently trades 11 % below its own fair value, and the market average says nothing about that. An expensive market is no reason to stay out and no reason to buy everything at once: keep a broad savings plan running, buy single stocks only with money you can do without, and hold part of your money liquid while the market is high. The full picture including sectors is on is it worth investing now.
What is the share price of Okasan Securities Group (OKN)?
The closing price on Oct 1, 2026 was €6.90. Our model-based fair value is €7.73, about +12% upside (undervalued). We carry closing prices from our data provider, not a live tick.
What should I pay attention to with Okasan Securities Group right now?
For a financial, book-value and earnings-based methods matter more than a cash-flow DCF, which fits banks and insurers poorly. The price sits in the lower half of our model range, the side with the larger margin of safety. Read the verdict with care: some models are missing inputs, so the estimate scatters more than usual.
Key figures of Okasan Securities Group
How large is the market capitalisation of Okasan Securities Group (OKN)?
The market capitalisation of Okasan Securities Group is €1.4B. The stock-market value of the whole company: share price times number of shares. It is what the market asks for the entire business today.
What is the P/S ratio of Okasan Securities Group (OKN)?
The price-to-sales ratio of Okasan Securities Group is 2.49 (P/E × margin). Price to sales: market value relative to yearly revenue. Useful when profit is thin or distorted.
What are the earnings per share of Okasan Securities Group (OKN)?
Earnings per share at Okasan Securities Group are €0.5900 (price ÷ EPS = P/E 11.7). Earnings per share over the last twelve months: total profit spread across every single share.
What is the dividend yield of Okasan Securities Group (OKN)?
The dividend yield of Okasan Securities Group is 3.1% (payout 36.3%). Yearly dividend relative to the share price. 3% pays 3 per 100 invested. Below: how much of profit is used for it.
What is the net margin of Okasan Securities Group (OKN)?
The net margin of Okasan Securities Group is 21.3% (fiscal year 2026). How much of every unit of revenue ends up as profit. 10% means 10 cents of profit per dollar of sales.
What is the return on equity of Okasan Securities Group (OKN)?
The return on equity (ROE) of Okasan Securities Group is 12.7% (last twelve months). Profit relative to shareholders' equity, how efficiently the company works with its owners' money.
What is the EBIT return on assets of Okasan Securities Group (OKN)?
On an EBIT basis the return on assets of Okasan Securities Group is 2.4% (avg 5y). Operating profit (EBIT) relative to everything the company owns, as a multi-year average. It describes the business model rather than one good or bad year.
What is the operating margin of Okasan Securities Group (OKN)?
The operating margin of Okasan Securities Group is 35.6% (last twelve months). Profit from the core business (before interest and taxes) relative to revenue.
How fast is revenue growing at Okasan Securities Group (OKN)?
Revenue at Okasan Securities Group is growing +66.6% versus a year earlier (3y avg +14.8%). How much revenue grew versus a year earlier (YoY). The 3-year average next to it puts the single year in context.
How fast are earnings growing at Okasan Securities Group (OKN)?
Earnings per share at Okasan Securities Group are growing +367% versus a year earlier. How much earnings per share grew versus a year earlier.
How much net debt does Okasan Securities Group (OKN) carry?
The net debt of Okasan Securities Group is ¥432B (fiscal year 2026, ≈ 7.3 yrs of FCF). Debt minus cash on hand. The note shows how many years of free cash flow could in theory pay it off.
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