Omada Health, Inc (OMDA) Fair Value & Analysis
Healthcare · US · Market cap $1.0B
Omada Health, Inc
OMDA · US
Fair value as of: Jul 17, 2026
From 7 valuation models · updated 24 days ago
Fair value updated Jul 17, 2026, revised from $17.39 to $7.44 (−57.2%) since Jun 24, 2026. Share price +3.0% over the past month.
A solid business, but screening 69% overvalued on our models.
What matters now
- The price sits above even our optimistic bull case ($8.55). The favourable scenario is already priced in.
- The large gap to fair value rests on thin data (low evidence): fewer applicable models and a shorter history. Read it with extra caution.
- Solid but not exceptional quality (58/100) and above fair value, neither a clear bargain nor a standout compounder.
Price vs Fair Value (14 months)
White line = price, green steps = our fair value per fiscal year. As of Jul 17, 2026.
How to read this chart
14‑month range $10.94 – $26.78 · fair‑value band $6.33 – $8.55 · the $23.67 price screens above the $7.44 fair value. Green steps = our fair value per fiscal year (point-in-time, no hindsight). As of Jul 17, 2026.
Analysis
Omada Health, Inc (OMDA) currently trades at $23.67, while our model-based Fair Value estimate is $7.44, implying the stock looks roughly 68.6% overvalued today. The Quality Score stands at 58/100 (solid quality), in the Healthcare sector. Bear case: priced above our estimate, the market already discounts strong expectations. Bull case: above-average quality can justify a premium, the entry price still matters most (evidence: low).
Over the trailing twelve months, Omada Health, Inc generated revenue of $283M at a net margin of -2.2%. Revenue grew 42.0% year over year. It earns a return on equity of -4.3%. The balance sheet holds a net cash position of $222M. Fundamentals as of Jul 17, 2026
Our scenario range runs from $6.33 (bear case) to $8.55 (bull case); at $23.67, the current price sits above that range. Bear and bull are the same models run on conservative and optimistic assumptions (margins, growth, valuation multiples), so a plausible valuation range, not a price target. The share trades about 12% below its 52-week high and 130% above its 52-week low, currently above its 200-day average. For context, the median of 10 Healthcare peers we cover trades at -53% fair-value upside, at -69%, OMDA screens richer than that median.
Fair Value models
Each model estimates fair value its own way; the Fair Value above is the evidence-weighted blend. Evidence (0–100) measures how completely this model’s inputs are available: well-fed models carry more weight in the blend. The spread across models is intentional, each one stresses a different value driver; dividend models, for instance, come out structurally low when payout is small.
All 7 models by family
Widest divergence: Growth DCF ($9.34) versus Asset-Based ($2.59). Highest evidence: Growth DCF (80).
Key figures & financial health
More key figures
Figures from reported company fundamentals · as of Jul 17, 2026. TTM = trailing twelve months.
Quality Score breakdown
Of which business quality 63 · Market factors (momentum, volatility) 56
Non-valuation factor families (profitability, growth, cashflow, financial strength, momentum …), each academically grounded. Valuation itself sits in the Fair Value and is deliberately excluded here to avoid double-counting.
About the company
Omada Health, Inc., together with its subsidiary, Physera, Inc., provides a range of virtual care programs in the United States.
Full company description
Omada Health, Inc., together with its subsidiary, Physera, Inc., provides a range of virtual care programs in the United States. The company offers cardiometabolic programs for prediabetes, diabetes, and hypertension; a physical therapy program to address musculoskeletal conditions; other support programs for members taking glucagon-like peptide-1 agonists in its cardiometabolic program; and weight management programs, as well as various behavioral health support programs. It also delivers virtual care. The company offers its programs for employers, health plans and systems, and pharmacy benefits managers through its direct sales force and channel partners. The company was incorporated in 2011 and is headquartered in South San Francisco, California.
Company description, as reported by the company or data provider.
Revenue & earnings trend
FY2022 – FY2025 · reported fiscal years
Omada Health, Inc reported revenue of $260M in FY2025 versus $89.2M in FY2022, a compound +42.9%/yr. Reported net income was −$12.8M in FY2025.
OMDA screens 69% overvalued. Compare with Veeva Systems Inc →
Peer Group
Health Information Services · 127 stocks
How this stock ranks against its industry: the green marker is this stock, the band is the typical 25–75% peer range, and the tick is the median.
Valuation Multiples vs Health Information Services median · lower = cheaper
Snowflake
Five quick dimensions, each 0 to 100: VALUE (fair-value potential), FUTURE (revenue growth), PAST (return on equity), HEALTH (low debt), DIVIDEND (yield). Green = this stock, grey = typical sector peer.
VALUE 0: the price sits above our fair-value range.
Insider activity: 42/100
Values & ESG
Does this company touch areas you may want to avoid? The classification is inferred from sector and industry.
ESG scores are not available for this stock yet. Values and ESG data are contextual and can differ between providers.
Similar stocks
10 more Health Information Services stocks, each showing price versus our Fair Value estimate (as of Jul 17, 2026).
| Stock | Price | Fair Value | vs Fair Value |
|---|---|---|---|
| Veeva Systems Inc VEEV | $190.12 | $95.12 | -50% |
| Pro Medicus Limited PME | A$194.84 | A$23.74 | -88% |
| BrightSpring Health Services, Inc BTSG | $68.16 | $21.31 | -69% |
| HealthEquity, Inc HQY | $97.67 | $56.63 | -42% |
| Hinge Health, Inc HNGE | $88.80 | $24.03 | -73% |
| 10x Genomics, Inc TXG | $45.75 | $17.18 | -62% |
| Waystar Holding WAY | $22.69 | $12.86 | -43% |
| Doximity, Inc DOCS | $22.21 | $17.18 | -23% |
| Privia Health Group PRVA | $28.10 | $5.30 | -81% |
| Inventurus Knowledge Solutions Limited IKS | ₹1,846 | ₹860.28 | -53% |
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How we calculate Fair Value
Each company is valued through a stack of independent intrinsic-value models (DCF variants, residual-income, multiples and more), blended into one family-balanced consensus and weighted by how much trustworthy data backs it. A separate quality layer scores the fundamentals. Every input is real reported data, nothing guessed.
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