OMV AG PK (OMVKY) fair value: what the stock is really worth
As of Oct 2, 2026: fair value of OMV AG PK $15.97, price $19.96, upside -20.0%, quality 60 out of 100. Calculated from audited financials with 26 valuation models and 37 quality factors, updated daily.
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Price vs Fair Value
White line = price, green steps = our fair value per fiscal year, dashed = 300-day average. As of Oct 3, 2026.
How to read this chart
60‑month range $5.72 – $20.94 · fair‑value band $13.94 – $19.76 · the $19.96 price screens above the $15.97 fair value. Green steps = our fair value per fiscal year (point-in-time, no hindsight). Dashed = 300-day average. As of Oct 3, 2026.
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OMV operates as an oil, gas, and chemicals company in Austria, Belgium, Germany, New Zealand, Norway, Romania, the United Arab Emirates, the rest of Central and Eastern Europe, the rest of Europe, and internationally. It operates through Chemicals, Fuels & Feedstock, and Energy segments.
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OMV operates as an oil, gas, and chemicals company in Austria, Belgium, Germany, New Zealand, Norway, Romania, the United Arab Emirates, the rest of Central and Eastern Europe, the rest of Europe, and internationally. It operates through Chemicals, Fuels & Feedstock, and Energy segments. The company provides advanced and circular polyolefin solutions, and base chemicals, as well as engages in the recycling of plastics. It also refines and markets crude oil and other feedstock; and operates refineries, filling stations, gas storage facilities, and gas-fired power plant. In addition, the company engages in the exploration, development, and production crude oil, natural gas liquids, and natural gas; development of energy sources, such as geothermal projects; Carbon Capture and Storage; provision and renewable power solutions, as well as sale, trade, and logistics of natural gas. OMV was incorporated in 1956 and is headquartered in Vienna, Austria.
Stock analysis
OMV AG PK (OMVKY) currently trades at $19.96, while our model-based Fair Value estimate is $15.97, 20.0% below the price, so the stock looks overvalued today.
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Valuation
Bull case: the DCF Models group reads highest at a median of $18.74 per share, and 7 of the 23 models we run sit above the $19.96 price.
Bear case: the Earnings-Based group reads lowest at $7.73, and 16 of the 23 models stay below the price. Evidence for this calculation is high.
Scenario range: $13.94 (bear) to $19.76 (bull), the price of $19.96 sits above it. Bear and bull are the same models on cautious and optimistic assumptions, a range, not a price target.
Quality & growth
The Quality Score stands at 60/100 (solid quality), in the Energy sector.
Weak Growth: Revenue growth is inconsistent: the periods point in different directions, so there is no trend to rely on.
OMV AG PK reported revenue of €24.3B in FY2025 versus €35.6B in FY2021, a compound −9.1%/yr. Reported net income was €1.1B in FY2025, compounding −16.2%/yr from FY2021.
Key figures
Market cap $20.9B · P/E ratio 19.4 · P/S ratio 0.86 · EPS (TTM) $1.03 · Net margin 4.4% · Return on equity 6.8% · Return on assets (EBIT) 11.4% · Operating margin 15.8%.
Competitive moat
Our AI-assisted moat analysis scores the competitive advantage at 48 out of 100 (medium confidence).
What moves the price
The share trades about 5% below its 52-week high and 71% above its 52-week low, currently above its 200-day average.
For context, the median of 10 Energy peers we cover trades at −13% fair-value upside, at −20%, OMVKY screens richer than that median.
Fair Value models
Bear $13.94Fair Value $15.97Bull $19.76
Model ⓘEach model values the company its own way (discounted cash flow, earnings, assets, dividends). The fair value above is their evidence-weighted blend, not the output of a single model.Bear ⓘBear = the cautious scenario: the same model computed with conservative anchors (lower growth, margins and valuation multiples). Together with Bull it frames a plausible valuation range, not a price target.BaseBull ⓘBull = the optimistic scenario: the same model computed with favourable anchors (higher growth, margins and valuation multiples). Together with Bear it frames a plausible valuation range, not a price target. If a model's bull case is above four times its base value, the table shows that limit with a > sign (like the overall Bull above): beyond it no assumption holds.Evidence ⓘEvidence = how well-backed THIS model's estimate is for this stock (0–100): how complete and reliable its input data are, and how well the model fits the company. The final Fair Value is an evidence-weighted blend, so better-evidenced models count more. Green ≥70, amber 50–69, grey below 50.
Growth Quality ⓘGrowth is valuable only when reinvestment earns attractive returns (Aswath Damodaran): sustainable growth depends on return on capital, reinvestment and efficiency. Basis: total company revenue over the periods shown on the cards (3Y/5Y/all years), not per share, so a merger can show up as a growth jump; per-share earnings growth is in the value-creation card.40/100
Revenue growth is inconsistent: the periods point in different directions, so there is no trend to rely on.
Revenue growth 1 year
−28.5%
Revenue growth 3 years ⓘMeasures the company's TOTAL revenue from reported annual statements: compound average growth per year (CAGR) from the fiscal year 3, 5 or N years back to the most recent comparable fiscal year. Not per share: buybacks do not change this number, and a merger can appear as a growth jump. Per-share growth (which does include buybacks) is in the value-creation card.
−26.9%
Revenue growth 5 years ⓘMeasures the company's TOTAL revenue from reported annual statements: compound average growth per year (CAGR) from the fiscal year 3, 5 or N years back to the most recent comparable fiscal year. Not per share: buybacks do not change this number, and a merger can appear as a growth jump. Per-share growth (which does include buybacks) is in the value-creation card.
+8.0%
Start year 2020 (pandemic). Over 10 years: +0.8% a year
Revenue growth 20 years ⓘMeasures the company's TOTAL revenue from reported annual statements: compound average growth per year (CAGR) from the fiscal year 3, 5 or N years back to the most recent comparable fiscal year. Not per share: buybacks do not change this number, and a merger can appear as a growth jump. Per-share growth (which does include buybacks) is in the value-creation card.
+2.2%
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’25
What shareholders gained per year (last 5 years) (mathematically smoothed) ⓘWhat the business itself delivers per year: earnings growth per share plus the dividend yield. This is what you get IF the market keeps valuing the stock the same way: it contains no assumption about the market changing its mind. Computed per share, so buybacks count and a merger does not pass as growth. For a company that pays no dividend it is pure earnings growth per share. Period: earnings growth per share as CAGR over the last 5 reported fiscal years (annual statements), plus the current dividend yield. The start value is the median of the three years around the start, so a single crisis year (a pandemic or a write-down) does not distort the rate. Smoothed = median of all growth paths between the years of the window (trend line on the logarithm of earnings per share): a single extreme year cannot distort the rate. The reported figure stays in the tooltip.
+4.9%
Earnings growth per share plus dividend.
Earnings per share, growth per year+4.9%
Dividend (yield on the price)0.0%
Pace: 5 vs 10 years ⓘTwo data points, not a trend model: earnings growth per share over the last 5 fiscal years against the last 10. Labelled "steady" when both rates are within 3 percentage points of each other, otherwise picking up or flattening. Shown only when ten years of history exist.20.8% vs 27.1%, slowing
Profit margin 2020 to 2025 ⓘOperating margin then vs now, from reported annual statements. A falling margin after a boom year is the classic peak-earnings signal: the growth rate then leans on an inflated base.9% → 15%
2025 sits 179% above its own trend. The rate follows the median trend of the last 5 years, not that single year.
Start year 2020 (pandemic)
Growth Forecast
Little optimism in the price
The price assumes less growth than the company has delivered so far and less than analysts expect.
What the price assumes ⓘThis turns our valuation around: instead of asking what the share is worth, it asks what growth the current price requires. It uses the cash the company keeps after all spending (free cash flow), the same discount rate as our models, five years of growth, then slowing evenly to 2 % a year by year ten. Compared with the analysts' sales forecasts extended to the same five years (at least three analysts, for context only, it does not enter the Fair Value): within 3 percentage points counts as "in line" (amber), below that little optimism (green), above that a lot of optimism (red).
−22.8%
Yearly growth needed for the next five years to justify today's price.
What forecasts expect ⓘAnalysts publish sales forecasts for the next two fiscal years. For the years after that, growth slows evenly to 2 % a year by year ten (2 % is the long-run rate our models use). Projected years are marked as such.
−1.8%
Yearly sales growth analysts expect, extended to five years.
After inflation (figures in EUR, euro area: IMF forecast 2.2% a year to 2030, 2.6% from 2016 to 2025) that is about −24.5% a year for the price and −3.9% for the forecasts.
News mood ⓘNews mood, the average tone of recent news (77 articles), rated against how stocks are usually covered. 🚀 Hype = unusually upbeat · 🙂 Positive = above average · 😐 Neutral = typical · 🙁 Negative = below average · 😨 Very negative = unusually downbeat. It reflects the tone of coverage, not our valuation.Neutral
Recent news coverage is roughly neutral, about typical for how stocks are covered.
Price, fair value, quality and upside side by side.
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Peer GroupⓘHow this stock ranks against its industry: the green marker is this stock, the band is the typical 25–75% peer range, and the tick is the median.Oil & Gas Integrated · 45 stocks
Beats the industry median on 11/15 measures
Overall it ranks above its industry peers.
Valuation
Quality Score60 · Above median
Fair Value upside−17.0% · Above median
Profitability
Return on equity (TTM)6.8% · Bottom 25%
Return on assets4.8% · Below median
Net margin (TTM)10.3% · Above median
Operating margin (TTM)15.8% · Above median
Growth and dividend
Revenue growth−4.1% · Bottom 25%
Dividend yield (TTM)15.8% · Top 25%
Balance sheet
Debt / equity0.25× · Below median
Valuation Multiplesvs Oil & Gas Integrated median · lower = cheaper
For bloggers, editors and developers: paste this into your site or blog (a “Custom HTML” block in WordPress), it shows the current fair value and links back here. Free, plain HTML, and welcome. Full data streams (CSV/JSON) at /developers.
Cite: Fair Value Calculator (2026). "OMV AG PK Fair Value". https://www.fairvalue-calculator.com/stock/OMVKY
Frequently asked questions
Is OMV AG PK (OMVKY) overvalued or undervalued?
As of Oct 3, 2026, our model estimates a fair value of $15.97 versus a price of $19.96, about −20% upside (overvalued).
What is the fair value of OMVKY?
Our model-based fair value for OMV AG PK is $15.97 (as of Oct 3, 2026), built from audited fundamentals. The current price: $19.96.
What is the quality score of OMVKY?
OMV AG PK has a Quality Score of 60/100. It measures business quality (profitability, growth, cash flow, balance-sheet strength, investment discipline, share issuance). Market factors such as price momentum and volatility do not enter the number; they are shown separately in the detail view.
What is the price target for OMV AG PK (OMVKY)?
Our model-based price target is the fair value of $15.97 (as of Oct 3, 2026) from 23 valuation models. Cautious scenario $13.94, optimistic scenario $19.76. It is a calculation from audited fundamentals, not an analyst target.
What is the OMV AG PK stock forecast for 2026?
Our models put fair value at $15.97, about −20% upside versus a price of $19.96 (overvalued). Cautious scenario $13.94, optimistic scenario $19.76. The calculation is refreshed regularly with new filings.
What is the revenue of OMV AG PK (OMVKY)?
OMV AG PK reported trailing-twelve-month revenue of about €23.4B (latest available figure, as of Oct 3, 2026).
What growth is priced into OMV AG PK (OMVKY)?
For today's price to be fair in a discounted-cash-flow model, OMV AG PK would have to grow free cash flow by -22.8 % per year for five years (discount rate 8.1 %, then slowing evenly to 2 % perpetual growth by year ten). Over the last 5 years revenue grew +8.0 % per year. As of Oct 3, 2026.
What discount rate (WACC) does the fair value of OMVKY use?
Our models discount OMV AG PK at 8.1 %: a base by market capitalisation (large), damped by beta 0.21, country premium for USA. The same rate applies in all 26 models.
What is a reverse DCF?
A reverse DCF turns the usual calculation around. Instead of deriving a value from assumptions, it takes today's price as given and asks: what free-cash-flow growth would a company have to deliver for exactly this price to be fair? The result is not a forecast but the expectation already priced in. For OMV AG PK that is -22.8 % per year a year over ten years, using the same discount rate (8.1 %) and the same formula as our fair value.
How much growth has OMV AG PK (OMVKY) delivered so far?
Over the past 5 years revenue at OMV AG PK grew +8.0 % a year. The price currently implies -22.8 % per year free-cash-flow growth a year. Comparing the two shows how much confidence is in the price: if it demands more than has been delivered, the business has to accelerate for the maths to work.
How fast is the sector of OMV AG PK (OMVKY) growing?
The median revenue growth in the sector is +9.3 % a year. That is the yardstick for the growth priced into OMV AG PK (-22.8 % per year a year): it shows whether the expectation is within the usual range or beyond it.
What is the free cash flow yield of OMV AG PK (OMVKY)?
The free-cash-flow yield on the price is 23.63 %: that much free cash flow OMV AG PK produces per unit of market value. When it exceeds the discount rate of our models (8.1 %), the business already earns more than its cost of capital demands, and the price needs little additional growth.
What is the intrinsic value of OMV AG PK (OMVKY)?
Intrinsic value and fair value mean the same thing: what the business is worth on its numbers, independent of the share price. For OMV AG PK it is $15.97 per share (as of Oct 3, 2026), against a price of $19.96. It is the blended result of 23 valuation models (cash flow, earnings, asset, dividend).
Is OMV AG PK stock overvalued or undervalued in 2026?
As of Oct 3, 2026, OMVKY trades above its calculated fair value: price $19.96, fair value $15.97, a gap of about −20% (overvalued). The calculation is refreshed with each new quarterly report, so the verdict can change during the year.
Is fair value the same as the market price of OMVKY?
No. The price is what the market pays today ($19.96); the fair value is what the company's own numbers justify ($15.97). For OMV AG PK the two are $3.99 per share apart. That gap is exactly why we show both numbers side by side.
How much is OMV AG PK worth?
The market values OMV AG PK at about $20.9B (market capitalisation, as of Oct 3, 2026). Per share that is $19.96; our models calculate a fair value of $15.97 per share.
What do the bullish and bearish scenarios say about OMVKY?
Our models span a range for OMV AG PK: cautious scenario $13.94, base $15.97, optimistic $19.76 per share (as of Oct 3, 2026, price $19.96). The range comes from different growth and margin assumptions, not from analyst opinions.
What is the P/E ratio of OMVKY?
OMV AG PK trades at a price-to-earnings ratio of 19.4 (as of Oct 3, 2026). A P/E on its own says little: it compares the price with ONE year of profit, while our fair value of $15.97 is built from several models across several years. Other multiples: PEG 0.8, P/B 0.9, P/S 0.9, EV/EBITDA 4.0.
What is the PEG ratio of OMVKY?
The PEG ratio of OMV AG PK is 0.80 (P/E divided by earnings growth, as of Oct 3, 2026). That is below 1, so growth is priced more cheaply than the earnings multiple alone suggests.
How solid is the balance sheet of OMV AG PK (OMVKY)?
Balance-sheet figures for OMV AG PK (as of Oct 3, 2026): return on equity 6.8%, debt of 0.25 per unit of equity. They feed the Quality Score of 60/100, which measures business quality independently of the share price.
How far is OMVKY from its 52-week high?
OMV AG PK trades at $19.96, about 5% below its 52-week high of $20.94 and 71% above the low of $11.66 (as of Oct 2, 2026). Distance from the high says nothing about value: that is what the fair value of $15.97 is for.
Which stocks are comparable to OMV AG PK?
From the same area (Energy) we also value Saudi Arabian Oil Company, Exxon Mobil Corporation, Chevron Corporation, PetroChina Company, among others. Each of them has its own fair-value calculation on this site using the same models, so the comparison is like for like.
Is OMV AG PK stock attractive at the current price?
The data as of Oct 3, 2026: price $19.96, calculated fair value $15.97 (−20%), Quality Score 60/100, from 23 models. Whether that fits your horizon and risk tolerance is your call. We provide the calculation, not investment advice.
How is the fair value of OMVKY calculated?
We run OMV AG PK through 23 models from four families: discounted cash flow, earnings models, asset and balance-sheet models, and dividend models. Every model gets the same audited fundamentals; the result is the weighted average of $15.97, with the spread shown as a cautious and an optimistic scenario.
Is it still worth investing in stocks now?
The global stock market currently sits 14.5 % above its aggregate fair value. OMV AG PK itself currently trades above fair value. An expensive market is no reason to stay out and no reason to buy everything at once: keep a broad savings plan running, buy single stocks only with money you can do without, and hold part of your money liquid while the market is high. The full picture including sectors is on is it worth investing now.
What is the share price of OMV AG PK (OMVKY)?
The closing price on Oct 2, 2026 was $19.96. Our model-based fair value is $15.97, about −20% upside (overvalued). We carry closing prices from our data provider, not a live tick.
What should I pay attention to with OMV AG PK right now?
Solid but not exceptional quality (60/100) and above fair value, neither a clear bargain nor a standout compounder. The price sits above our optimistic bull case: the favourable scenario is already priced in. The data supports the verdict: every model runs on fully documented inputs.
Where does the earnings growth of OMV AG PK (OMVKY) come from?
Earnings per share at OMV AG PK grew +6.1 % a year from 2013 to 2024. Broken into its drivers: revenue per share −5.7 %, EBIT margin +13.3 %, tax rate −4.1 %, residual (interest, one-offs) +3.5 %. The four rates multiply to the earnings growth rate, they do not add up. Start and end are three-year averages so a single exceptional year does not distort the result.
Key figures of OMV AG PK
How large is the market capitalisation of OMV AG PK (OMVKY)?
The market capitalisation of OMV AG PK is $20.9B. The stock-market value of the whole company: share price times number of shares. It is what the market asks for the entire business today.
What is the P/S ratio of OMV AG PK (OMVKY)?
The price-to-sales ratio of OMV AG PK is 0.86 (P/E × margin). Price to sales: market value relative to yearly revenue. Useful when profit is thin or distorted.
What are the earnings per share of OMV AG PK (OMVKY)?
Earnings per share at OMV AG PK are $1.03 (price ÷ EPS = P/E 19.4). Earnings per share over the last twelve months: total profit spread across every single share.
What is the net margin of OMV AG PK (OMVKY)?
The net margin of OMV AG PK is 4.4% (fiscal year 2025). How much of every unit of revenue ends up as profit. 10% means 10 cents of profit per dollar of sales.
What is the return on equity of OMV AG PK (OMVKY)?
The return on equity (ROE) of OMV AG PK is 6.8% (last twelve months). Profit relative to shareholders' equity, how efficiently the company works with its owners' money.
What is the EBIT return on assets of OMV AG PK (OMVKY)?
On an EBIT basis the return on assets of OMV AG PK is 11.4% (avg 5y). Operating profit (EBIT) relative to everything the company owns, as a multi-year average. It describes the business model rather than one good or bad year.
What is the operating margin of OMV AG PK (OMVKY)?
The operating margin of OMV AG PK is 15.8% (last twelve months). Profit from the core business (before interest and taxes) relative to revenue.
How fast is revenue growing at OMV AG PK (OMVKY)?
Revenue at OMV AG PK is growing −4.1% versus a year earlier (3y avg −26.9%). How much revenue grew versus a year earlier (YoY). The 3-year average next to it puts the single year in context.
How fast are earnings growing at OMV AG PK (OMVKY)?
Earnings per share at OMV AG PK are growing +934% versus a year earlier. How much earnings per share grew versus a year earlier.
How much net debt does OMV AG PK (OMVKY) carry?
The net debt of OMV AG PK is €1.8B (fiscal year 2025, ≈ 1.3 yrs of FCF). Debt minus cash on hand. The note shows how many years of free cash flow could in theory pay it off.
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Broad data
Oct 3, 2026