ONL Fair Value & Analysis
Real Estate · US · Market cap $163M
ONL
ONL · US
Fair value as of: Jul 27, 2026
From 4 valuation models · updated 14 days ago
Fair value updated Jul 27, 2026, revised from $6.85 to $6.50 (−5.1%) since Jun 26, 2026. Share price +1.1% over the past month.
Below-average quality, screening 131% undervalued on our models.
What matters now
- The large discount to fair value meets weak quality (33/100). That raises the risk this is a value trap rather than a bargain.
- The price is below even our cautious bear case ($3.39). The market is more pessimistic than our downside scenario.
- The model range is unusually wide ($3.39 to $9.61). The outcome hinges heavily on assumptions, so read the point estimate with caution.
- The large gap to fair value rests on thin data (low evidence): fewer applicable models and a shorter history. Read it with extra caution.
Price vs Fair Value (5 years)
White line = price, green steps = our fair value per fiscal year, dashed = 300-day average. As of Jul 27, 2026.
How to read this chart
57‑month range $1.47 – $24.56 · fair‑value band $3.39 – $9.61 · the $2.82 price screens below the $6.50 fair value. Dashed = 300-day average. As of Jul 27, 2026.
Analysis
ONL (ONL) currently trades at $2.82, while our model-based Fair Value estimate is $6.50, implying the stock looks roughly 130.5% undervalued today. The Quality Score stands at 33/100 (below-average quality), in the Real Estate sector. Bull case: trading below our estimate, it may offer upside if the fundamentals hold. Bear case: a low price can be a value trap when quality is weak or the data is thin (evidence: low), always confirm before acting.
Trailing-twelve-month revenue stands at $134M. Revenue declined 3.9% year over year. It earns a return on equity of -21.0%. Net debt stands at $460M. Fundamentals as of Jul 27, 2026
Our scenario range runs from $3.39 (bear case) to $9.61 (bull case); at $2.82, the current price sits below that range. Bear and bull are the same models run on conservative and optimistic assumptions (margins, growth, valuation multiples), so a plausible valuation range, not a price target. The share trades about 7% below its 52-week high and 51% above its 52-week low, currently above its 200-day average. For context, the median of 10 Real Estate peers we cover trades at -20% fair-value upside, at 131%, ONL screens cheaper than that median.
Fair Value models
Each model estimates fair value its own way; the Fair Value above is the evidence-weighted blend. Evidence (0–100) measures how completely this model’s inputs are available: well-fed models carry more weight in the blend. The spread across models is intentional, each one stresses a different value driver; dividend models, for instance, come out structurally low when payout is small.
All 4 models by family
Widest divergence: Multiples ($10.77) versus Dividend Discount ($1.75). Highest evidence: Gordon GGM (70).
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Key figures & financial health
More key figures
Figures from reported company fundamentals · as of Jul 27, 2026. TTM = trailing twelve months.
Quality Score breakdown
Of which business quality 35 · Market factors (momentum, volatility) 48
Non-valuation factor families (profitability, growth, cashflow, financial strength, momentum …), each academically grounded. Valuation itself sits in the Fair Value and is deliberately excluded here to avoid double-counting.
About the company
Orion Office REIT specializes in the ownership, acquisition and management of a diversified portfolio of mission-critical and corporate headquarters office buildings in high-quality suburban markets across the U.S. The portfolio is leased primarily on a single-tenant net lease basis to creditworthy tenants.
Full company description
Orion Office REIT specializes in the ownership, acquisition and management of a diversified portfolio of mission-critical and corporate headquarters office buildings in high-quality suburban markets across the U.S. The portfolio is leased primarily on a single-tenant net lease basis to creditworthy tenants. The company's team of experienced industry leaders employs a proven, cycle-tested investment evaluation framework which serves as the lens through which capital allocation decisions are made for the current portfolio and future acquisitions.
Company description, as reported by the company or data provider.
Revenue & earnings trend
FY2021 – FY2025 · reported fiscal years
ONL reported revenue of $148M in FY2025 versus $79.7M in FY2021, a compound +16.7%/yr. Reported net income was −$139M in FY2025.
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Peer Group
REIT - Office · 75 stocks
How this stock ranks against its industry: the green marker is this stock, the band is the typical 25–75% peer range, and the tick is the median.
Valuation Multiples vs REIT - Office median · lower = cheaper
Snowflake
Five quick dimensions, each 0 to 100: VALUE (fair-value potential), FUTURE (revenue growth), PAST (return on equity), HEALTH (low debt), DIVIDEND (yield). Green = this stock, grey = typical sector peer.
Values & ESG
Does this company touch areas you may want to avoid? The classification is inferred from sector and industry.
ESG scores are not available for this stock yet. Values and ESG data are contextual and can differ between providers.
Similar stocks
10 more REIT - Office stocks, each showing price versus our Fair Value estimate (as of Jul 27, 2026).
| Stock | Price | Fair Value | vs Fair Value |
|---|---|---|---|
| MERLIN Properties SOCIMI, S.A MRL | €15.23 | €6.46 | -58% |
| BXP, Inc BXP | $69.11 | $53.27 | -23% |
| Vornado Realty Trust VNORP | $51.75 | $41.59 | -20% |
| Alexandria Real Estate Equities, Inc ARE | $50.12 | $59.48 | +19% |
| Hudson Pacific Properties, Inc HPP | $15.38 | $4.60 | -70% |
| Mapletree Pan Asia Commercial Trust N2IU | 1.28 SGD | 1.14 SGD | -11% |
| Cousins Properties Incorporated CUZ | $32.15 | $17.62 | -45% |
| Kilroy Realty Corporation KRC | $39.42 | $40.37 | +2% |
| Keppel DC REIT AJBU | 2.20 SGD | 1.68 SGD | -24% |
| DEXUS DXS | A$5.64 | A$4.49 | -20% |
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Frequently asked questions
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How we calculate Fair Value
Each company is valued through a stack of independent intrinsic-value models (DCF variants, residual-income, multiples and more), blended into one family-balanced consensus and weighted by how much trustworthy data backs it. A separate quality layer scores the fundamentals. Every input is real reported data, nothing guessed.
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