Tien Phong Securities Corp (ORS) fair value: what the stock is really worth
As of Sep 24, 2026: fair value of Tien Phong Securities Corp VND 8,845, price VND 13,400, upside -34.0%, quality 43 out of 100. Calculated from audited financials with 26 valuation models and 37 quality factors, updated daily.
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Price vs Fair Value
White line = price, green steps = our fair value per fiscal year, dashed = 300-day average. As of Sep 24, 2026.
How to read this chart
17‑month range 7,450 VND – 16,600 VND · fair‑value band 6,634 VND – 11,056 VND · the 13,400 VND price screens above the 8,845 VND fair value. Green steps = our fair value per fiscal year (point-in-time, no hindsight). Dashed = 300-day average. As of Sep 24, 2026.
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Tien Phong Securities Corporation engages in the provision of brokerage and asset management services in Vietnam. It operates through Brokerage and Customer Service; Proprietary Trading of Listed Shares; Private Bond Trading; Financial Advisory; and General Management segments.
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Tien Phong Securities Corporation engages in the provision of brokerage and asset management services in Vietnam. It operates through Brokerage and Customer Service; Proprietary Trading of Listed Shares; Private Bond Trading; Financial Advisory; and General Management segments. The company provides securities services for brokerage, financial and investment consultancy, depository, trading, custody, trust, and underwriting. Tien Phong Securities Corporation was formerly known as Phuong Dong Securities Joint Stock Company. The company was founded in 2006 and is headquartered in Hanoi, Vietnam. Tien Phong Securities Corporation operates as a subsidiary of Tien Phong Commercial Joint Stock Bank.
Stock analysis
Tien Phong Securities Corp (ORS) currently trades at 13,400 VND, while our model-based Fair Value estimate is 8,845 VND, implying the stock looks roughly 51.5% overvalued today.
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Valuation
How firm this estimate is: it rests on 21 models at a data quality of 95/100, which puts the evidence level at low.
Scenario range: 6,634 VND (bear) to 11,056 VND (bull), the price of 13,400 VND sits above it. Bear and bull are the same models on cautious and optimistic assumptions, a range, not a price target.
Quality & growth
The Quality Score stands at 43/100 (below-average quality), in the Financial Services sector.
Weak Growth: Revenue is shrinking: the last year, the last three and the last five years are all negative.
Tien Phong Securities Corp reported revenue of 307B VND in FY2025 versus 1.1T VND in FY2021, a compound −26.7%/yr. Reported net income was 118B VND in FY2025, compounding −13.4%/yr from FY2021.
Key figures
Market cap 8.4T VND · P/E ratio 31.4 · P/S ratio 12.1 · EPS (TTM) 426.73 VND · Net margin 38.6% · Return on equity 16.5% · Return on assets (EBIT) 7.1% · Operating margin 80.5%.
Competitive moat
Our AI-assisted moat analysis scores the competitive advantage at 42 out of 100 (low confidence).
What moves the price
The share trades about 17% below its 52-week high and 10% above its 52-week low, currently below its 200-day average.
For context, the median of 10 Financial Services peers we cover trades at −20% fair-value upside, at −34%, ORS screens richer than that median.
Fair Value models
Bear 6,634 VNDFair Value 8,845 VNDBull 11,056 VND
Model ⓘEach model values the company its own way (discounted cash flow, earnings, assets, dividends). The fair value above is their evidence-weighted blend, not the output of a single model. Based on fiscal year 2025 figures (about 9 months old). Earnings retained since then (313.33 VND per share) are deliberately not added.Bear ⓘBear = the cautious scenario: the same model computed with conservative anchors (lower growth, margins and valuation multiples). Together with Bull it frames a plausible valuation range, not a price target.BaseBull ⓘBull = the optimistic scenario: the same model computed with favourable anchors (higher growth, margins and valuation multiples). Together with Bear it frames a plausible valuation range, not a price target.Evidence ⓘEvidence = how well-backed THIS model's estimate is for this stock (0–100): how complete and reliable its input data are, and how well the model fits the company. The final Fair Value is an evidence-weighted blend, so better-evidenced models count more. Green ≥70, amber 50–69, grey below 50.
Growth Quality ⓘGrowth is valuable only when reinvestment earns attractive returns (Aswath Damodaran): sustainable growth depends on return on capital, reinvestment and efficiency. Basis: total company revenue over the periods shown on the cards (3Y/5Y/all years), not per share, so a merger can show up as a growth jump; per-share earnings growth is in the value-creation card.40/100
Revenue is shrinking: the last year, the last three and the last five years are all negative.
Revenue growth 1 year
−71.3%
Revenue growth 3 years ⓘMeasures the company's TOTAL revenue from reported annual statements: compound average growth per year (CAGR) from the fiscal year 3, 5 or N years back to the most recent comparable fiscal year. Not per share: buybacks do not change this number, and a merger can appear as a growth jump. Per-share growth (which does include buybacks) is in the value-creation card.
−42.3%
Revenue growth 5 years ⓘMeasures the company's TOTAL revenue from reported annual statements: compound average growth per year (CAGR) from the fiscal year 3, 5 or N years back to the most recent comparable fiscal year. Not per share: buybacks do not change this number, and a merger can appear as a growth jump. Per-share growth (which does include buybacks) is in the value-creation card.
−4.4%
Start year 2020 (pandemic)
’20
’21
’22
’23
’24
’25
What shareholders gained per year (last 3 years), in VND ⓘWhat the business itself delivers per year: earnings growth per share plus the dividend yield. This is what you get IF the market keeps valuing the stock the same way: it contains no assumption about the market changing its mind. Computed per share, so buybacks count and a merger does not pass as growth. For a company that pays no dividend it is pure earnings growth per share. Period: earnings growth per share as CAGR over the last 3 reported fiscal years (annual statements), plus the current dividend yield. The start value is the median of the three years around the start, so a single crisis year (a pandemic or a write-down) does not distort the rate. Measured in VND: this currency has depreciated against the euro and dollar over the long run, so part of the nominal rate is currency erosion that never reaches a EUR/USD investor.
−36.1%
Earnings growth per share plus dividend.
Earnings per share, growth per year−36.1%
Dividend (yield on the price)0.0%
Profit margin 2020 to 2025 ⓘOperating margin then vs now, from reported annual statements. A falling margin after a boom year is the classic peak-earnings signal: the growth rate then leans on an inflated base.35% → 174%
Growth Forecast
Little optimism in the price
The price assumes less growth than the company has delivered so far.
What the price assumes ⓘThis turns our valuation around: instead of asking what the share is worth, it asks what growth the current price requires. It uses the cash the company keeps after all spending (free cash flow), the same discount rate as our models, five years of growth, then slowing evenly to 2 % a year by year ten. Compared with the analysts' sales forecasts extended to the same five years (at least three analysts, for context only, it does not enter the Fair Value): within 3 percentage points counts as "in line" (amber), below that little optimism (green), above that a lot of optimism (red).
−9.9%
Yearly growth needed for the next five years to justify today's price.
What forecasts expect
n/a
No analyst forecast available.
After inflation (Vietnam: IMF forecast 4.1% a year to 2030, 3.1% from 2016 to 2025) that is about −13.4% a year for the price.
Compare Tien Phong Securities Corp with another stock
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Peer GroupⓘHow this stock ranks against its industry: the green marker is this stock, the band is the typical 25–75% peer range, and the tick is the median.Capital Markets · 462 stocks
Beats the industry median on 5/10 measures
A mixed picture versus its industry peers.
Valuation
Quality Score43 · Below median
Fair Value upside−34% · Below median
Profitability
Return on equity (TTM)16% · Above median
Return on assets7% · Top 25%
Net margin (TTM)27% · Above median
Operating margin (TTM)81% · Top 25%
Growth and dividend
Revenue growth−51% · Bottom 25%
Balance sheet
Debt / equity0.57× · Highest 25%
Valuation Multiplesvs Capital Markets median · lower = cheaper
P/E (TTM)31.4× · Priciest 25%
P/FCF0.0× · Cheapest 25%
Strength profile in five axes (Snowflake)
This stockSector peers
VALUE (fair-value potential)0· sector 27
FUTURE (revenue growth)0· sector 85
PAST (return on equity)66· sector 30
HEALTH (low debt)72· sector 95
DIVIDEND (yield)0· sector 41
VALUE 0: the price sits above our fair-value range.
For bloggers, editors and developers: paste this into your site or blog (a “Custom HTML” block in WordPress), it shows the current fair value and links back here. Free, plain HTML, and welcome. Full data streams (CSV/JSON) at /developers.
Is Tien Phong Securities Corp (ORS) overvalued or undervalued?
As of Sep 24, 2026, our model estimates a fair value of 8,845 VND versus a price of 13,400 VND, about −34% upside (overvalued).
What is the fair value of ORS?
Our model-based fair value for Tien Phong Securities Corp is 8,845 VND (as of Sep 24, 2026), built from audited fundamentals. The current price: 13,400 VND.
What is the quality score of ORS?
Tien Phong Securities Corp has a Quality Score of 43/100. It measures business quality (profitability, growth, cash flow, balance-sheet strength, investment discipline, share issuance). Market factors such as price momentum and volatility do not enter the number; they are shown separately in the detail view.
What is the price target for Tien Phong Securities Corp (ORS)?
Our model-based price target is the fair value of 8,845 VND (as of Sep 24, 2026) from 2 valuation models. Cautious scenario 6,634 VND, optimistic scenario 11,056 VND. It is a calculation from audited fundamentals, not an analyst target.
What is the Tien Phong Securities Corp stock forecast for 2026?
Our models put fair value at 8,845 VND, about −34% upside versus a price of 13,400 VND (overvalued). Cautious scenario 6,634 VND, optimistic scenario 11,056 VND. The calculation is refreshed regularly with new filings.
What growth is priced into Tien Phong Securities Corp (ORS)?
For today's price to be fair in a discounted-cash-flow model, Tien Phong Securities Corp would have to grow free cash flow by -9.9 % per year for five years (discount rate 14.9 %, then slowing evenly to 2 % perpetual growth by year ten). Over the last 5 years revenue grew -4.4 % per year. As of Sep 24, 2026.
What discount rate (WACC) does the fair value of ORS use?
Our models discount Tien Phong Securities Corp at 14.9 %: a base by market capitalisation (small), country premium for Vietnam. The same rate applies in all 26 models.
What is a reverse DCF?
A reverse DCF turns the usual calculation around. Instead of deriving a value from assumptions, it takes today's price as given and asks: what free-cash-flow growth would a company have to deliver for exactly this price to be fair? The result is not a forecast but the expectation already priced in. For Tien Phong Securities Corp that is -9.9 % per year a year over ten years, using the same discount rate (14.9 %) and the same formula as our fair value.
How much growth has Tien Phong Securities Corp (ORS) delivered so far?
Over the past 5 years revenue at Tien Phong Securities Corp grew -4.4 % a year. The price currently implies -9.9 % per year free-cash-flow growth a year. Comparing the two shows how much confidence is in the price: if it demands more than has been delivered, the business has to accelerate for the maths to work.
How fast is the sector of Tien Phong Securities Corp (ORS) growing?
The median revenue growth in the sector is +7.0 % a year. That is the yardstick for the growth priced into Tien Phong Securities Corp (-9.9 % per year a year): it shows whether the expectation is within the usual range or beyond it.
What is the free cash flow yield of Tien Phong Securities Corp (ORS)?
The free-cash-flow yield on the price is 23.55 %: that much free cash flow Tien Phong Securities Corp produces per unit of market value. When it exceeds the discount rate of our models (14.9 %), the business already earns more than its cost of capital demands, and the price needs little additional growth.
What is the intrinsic value of Tien Phong Securities Corp (ORS)?
Intrinsic value and fair value mean the same thing: what the business is worth on its numbers, independent of the share price. For Tien Phong Securities Corp it is 8,845 VND per share (as of Sep 24, 2026), against a price of 13,400 VND. It is the blended result of 2 valuation models (cash flow, earnings, asset, dividend).
Is Tien Phong Securities Corp stock overvalued or undervalued in 2026?
As of Sep 24, 2026, ORS trades above its calculated fair value: price 13,400 VND, fair value 8,845 VND, a gap of about −34% (overvalued). The calculation is refreshed with each new quarterly report, so the verdict can change during the year.
Is fair value the same as the market price of ORS?
No. The price is what the market pays today (13,400 VND); the fair value is what the company's own numbers justify (8,845 VND). For Tien Phong Securities Corp the two are 4,555 VND per share apart. That gap is exactly why we show both numbers side by side.
How much is Tien Phong Securities Corp worth?
The market values Tien Phong Securities Corp at about 8.4T VND (market capitalisation, as of Sep 24, 2026). Per share that is 13,400 VND; our models calculate a fair value of 8,845 VND per share.
What do the bullish and bearish scenarios say about ORS?
Our models span a range for Tien Phong Securities Corp: cautious scenario 6,634 VND, base 8,845 VND, optimistic 11,056 VND per share (as of Sep 24, 2026, price 13,400 VND). The range comes from different growth and margin assumptions, not from analyst opinions.
What is the P/E ratio of ORS?
Tien Phong Securities Corp trades at a price-to-earnings ratio of 31.4 (as of Sep 24, 2026). A P/E on its own says little: it compares the price with ONE year of profit, while our fair value of 8,845 VND is built from several models across several years.
How solid is the balance sheet of Tien Phong Securities Corp (ORS)?
Balance-sheet figures for Tien Phong Securities Corp (as of Sep 24, 2026): return on equity 16.5%, debt of 0.57 per unit of equity. They feed the Quality Score of 43/100, which measures business quality independently of the share price.
How far is ORS from its 52-week high?
Tien Phong Securities Corp trades at 13,400 VND, about 17% below its 52-week high of 16,050 VND and 10% above the low of 12,200 VND (as of Sep 24, 2026). Distance from the high says nothing about value: that is what the fair value of 8,845 VND is for.
Which stocks are comparable to Tien Phong Securities Corp?
From the same area (Financial Services) we also value Morgan Stanley, a financial holding company,, The Goldman Sachs Group, The Charles Schwab Corporation, Interactive Brokers Group, among others. Each of them has its own fair-value calculation on this site using the same models, so the comparison is like for like.
Is Tien Phong Securities Corp stock attractive at the current price?
The data as of Sep 24, 2026: price 13,400 VND, calculated fair value 8,845 VND (−34%), Quality Score 43/100, from 2 models. Whether that fits your horizon and risk tolerance is your call. We provide the calculation, not investment advice.
How is the fair value of ORS calculated?
We run Tien Phong Securities Corp through 2 models from four families: discounted cash flow, earnings models, asset and balance-sheet models, and dividend models. Every model gets the same audited fundamentals; the result is the weighted average of 8,845 VND, with the spread shown as a cautious and an optimistic scenario.
Is it still worth investing in stocks now?
The global stock market currently sits 13.2 % above its aggregate fair value. Tien Phong Securities Corp itself currently trades above fair value. An expensive market is no reason to stay out and no reason to buy everything at once: keep a broad savings plan running, buy single stocks only with money you can do without, and hold part of your money liquid while the market is high. The full picture including sectors is on is it worth investing now.
What is the share price of Tien Phong Securities Corp (ORS)?
The closing price on Sep 24, 2026 was 13,400 VND. Our model-based fair value is 8,845 VND, about −34% upside (overvalued). We carry closing prices from our data provider, not a live tick.
What should I pay attention to with Tien Phong Securities Corp right now?
The price sits above even our optimistic bull case (11,056 VND). The favourable scenario is already priced in. Weak quality (43/100) and above fair value at the same time, the margin of safety is missing on both counts. The large gap to fair value rests on thin data (low evidence): fewer applicable models and a shorter history. Read it with extra caution. For a financial, book-value and earnings-based methods matter more than a cash-flow DCF, which fits banks and insurers poorly.
Key figures of Tien Phong Securities Corp
How large is the market capitalisation of Tien Phong Securities Corp (ORS)?
The market capitalisation of Tien Phong Securities Corp is 8.4T VND. The stock-market value of the whole company: share price times number of shares. It is what the market asks for the entire business today.
What is the P/S ratio of Tien Phong Securities Corp (ORS)?
The price-to-sales ratio of Tien Phong Securities Corp is 12.1 (P/E × margin). Price to sales: market value relative to yearly revenue. Useful when profit is thin or distorted.
What are the earnings per share of Tien Phong Securities Corp (ORS)?
Earnings per share at Tien Phong Securities Corp are 426.73 VND (price ÷ EPS = P/E 31.4). Earnings per share over the last twelve months: total profit spread across every single share.
What is the net margin of Tien Phong Securities Corp (ORS)?
The net margin of Tien Phong Securities Corp is 38.6% (fiscal year 2025). How much of every unit of revenue ends up as profit. 10% means 10 cents of profit per dollar of sales.
What is the return on equity of Tien Phong Securities Corp (ORS)?
The return on equity (ROE) of Tien Phong Securities Corp is 16.5% (last twelve months). Profit relative to shareholders' equity, how efficiently the company works with its owners' money.
What is the EBIT return on assets of Tien Phong Securities Corp (ORS)?
On an EBIT basis the return on assets of Tien Phong Securities Corp is 7.1% (avg 5y). Operating profit (EBIT) relative to everything the company owns, as a multi-year average. It describes the business model rather than one good or bad year.
What is the operating margin of Tien Phong Securities Corp (ORS)?
The operating margin of Tien Phong Securities Corp is 80.5% (last twelve months). Profit from the core business (before interest and taxes) relative to revenue.
How fast is revenue growing at Tien Phong Securities Corp (ORS)?
Revenue at Tien Phong Securities Corp is growing −51.1% versus a year earlier (3y avg −42.3%). How much revenue grew versus a year earlier (YoY). The 3-year average next to it puts the single year in context.
How fast are earnings growing at Tien Phong Securities Corp (ORS)?
Earnings per share at Tien Phong Securities Corp are growing −4.1% versus a year earlier. How much earnings per share grew versus a year earlier.
How much net debt does Tien Phong Securities Corp (ORS) carry?
The net debt of Tien Phong Securities Corp is 393B VND (fiscal year 2025, ≈ 0.2 yrs of FCF). Debt minus cash on hand. The note shows how many years of free cash flow could in theory pay it off.
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