Oshkosh Corporation (OSK) fair value: what the stock is really worth
As of Oct 2, 2026: fair value of Oshkosh Corporation $150, price $134, upside +11.9%, quality 40 out of 100. Calculated from audited financials with 26 valuation models and 37 quality factors, updated daily.
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Price vs Fair Value
White line = price, green steps = our fair value per fiscal year, dashed = 300-day average. As of Sep 27, 2026.
How to read this chart
60‑month range $65.88 – $177.16 · fair‑value band $101.26 – $229.19 · the $133.85 price screens below the $149.82 fair value. Green steps = our fair value per fiscal year (point-in-time, no hindsight). 1 fiscal year is left out: there the valuation rested on only a fraction of the usual models. Dashed = 300-day average. As of Sep 27, 2026.
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Oshkosh Corporation provides purpose-built vehicles and equipment worldwide. The company operates through three segments: Access, Vocational, and Transport segment.
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Oshkosh Corporation provides purpose-built vehicles and equipment worldwide. The company operates through three segments: Access, Vocational, and Transport segment. The Access segment designs and manufactures aerial work platform and telehandlers for use in construction, industrial, and maintenance applications; and towing and recovery equipment, which includes carriers, wreckers, and rotators, as well as provides financing and leasing solutions, including rental fleet loans, leases, and floor plan and retail financing. This segment also offers equipment installation and sale of chassis and service parts, as well as offers parts and accessories. The Transport segment engages in the manufacture and sale of heavy, medium, and light tactical wheeled vehicles and related services for defense; and hauling combat vehicles, missile systems, ammunition, fuel, and troops and cargos. The Vocational segment offers custom and commercial firefighting equipment, fire apparatus, and emergency vehicles, including pumpers, aerial platform, ladder and tiller trucks, and tankers; light, medium, and heavy-duty rescue vehicles; and wildland rough terrain response other emergency response vehicles. This segment also produces and sells aircraft rescue and firefighting vehicles; airport ground support equipment; baggage, airport facility and operations, and equipment-monitoring technology services; refuse and recycling collection vehicles and components; and IMT-branded field service vehicles and truck-mounted cranes, frontline communications-branded simulators, command vehicles and other communication vehicles, and front-discharge concrete mixer vehicles. The company sells its products through direct sales representatives, dealers, and distributors. The company was formerly known as Oshkosh Truck Corporation. Oshkosh Corporation was founded in 1915 and is headquartered in Oshkosh, Wisconsin.
Stock analysis
Oshkosh Corporation (OSK) currently trades at $133.85, while our model-based Fair Value estimate is $149.82, implying the stock looks roughly 10.7% undervalued today.
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Valuation
Bull case: the DCF Models group reads highest at a median of $212.29 per share, and 19 of the 26 models we run sit above the $133.85 price.
Bear case: the Dividend Discount group reads lowest at $31.63, and 7 of the 26 models stay below the price. Evidence for this calculation is medium.
Scenario range: $101.26 (bear) to $229.19 (bull), the price of $133.85 sits inside it. Bear and bull are the same models on cautious and optimistic assumptions, a range, not a price target.
Quality & growth
The Quality Score stands at 40/100 (below-average quality), in the Industrials sector.
Mixed Growth: Revenue is growing, but margins or cash flow do not fully confirm the trend.
Oshkosh Corporation reported revenue of $10.4B in FY2025 versus $7.7B in FY2021, a compound +7.7%/yr. Reported net income was $647M in FY2025, compounding +8.2%/yr from FY2021.
Key figures
Market cap $9.0B · P/E ratio 15.2 · P/S ratio 0.95 · EPS (TTM) $8.79 · Dividend yield 1.6% · Net margin 6.2% · Return on equity 13.3% · Return on assets (EBIT) 8.4%.
Competitive moat
Our AI-assisted moat analysis scores the competitive advantage at 50 out of 100 (low confidence).
What moves the price
The share trades about 24% below its 52-week high and 14% above its 52-week low, currently below its 200-day average.
For context, the median of 10 Industrials peers we cover trades at 10% fair-value upside, at 12%, OSK screens cheaper than that median.
Fair Value models
Bear $101.26Fair Value $149.82Bull $229.19
Model ⓘEach model values the company its own way (discounted cash flow, earnings, assets, dividends). The fair value above is their evidence-weighted blend, not the output of a single model. Based on fiscal year 2025 figures (about 9 months old). Earnings retained since then ($5.06 per share) are deliberately not added.Bear ⓘBear = the cautious scenario: the same model computed with conservative anchors (lower growth, margins and valuation multiples). Together with Bull it frames a plausible valuation range, not a price target.BaseBull ⓘBull = the optimistic scenario: the same model computed with favourable anchors (higher growth, margins and valuation multiples). Together with Bear it frames a plausible valuation range, not a price target. If a model's bull case is above four times its base value, the table shows that limit with a > sign (like the overall Bull above): beyond it no assumption holds.Evidence ⓘEvidence = how well-backed THIS model's estimate is for this stock (0–100): how complete and reliable its input data are, and how well the model fits the company. The final Fair Value is an evidence-weighted blend, so better-evidenced models count more. Green ≥70, amber 50–69, grey below 50.
Growth Quality ⓘGrowth is valuable only when reinvestment earns attractive returns (Aswath Damodaran): sustainable growth depends on return on capital, reinvestment and efficiency. Basis: total company revenue over the periods shown on the cards (3Y/5Y/all years), not per share, so a merger can show up as a growth jump; per-share earnings growth is in the value-creation card.72/100
Revenue is growing, but margins or cash flow do not fully confirm the trend.
Revenue growth 1 year
−2.9%
Revenue growth 3 years ⓘMeasures the company's TOTAL revenue from reported annual statements: compound average growth per year (CAGR) from the fiscal year 3, 5 or N years back to the most recent comparable fiscal year. Not per share: buybacks do not change this number, and a merger can appear as a growth jump. Per-share growth (which does include buybacks) is in the value-creation card.
+8.0%
Revenue growth 5 years ⓘMeasures the company's TOTAL revenue from reported annual statements: compound average growth per year (CAGR) from the fiscal year 3, 5 or N years back to the most recent comparable fiscal year. Not per share: buybacks do not change this number, and a merger can appear as a growth jump. Per-share growth (which does include buybacks) is in the value-creation card.
+8.7%
Start year 2020 (pandemic). Over 10 years: +5.5% a year
Revenue growth 40 years ⓘMeasures the company's TOTAL revenue from reported annual statements: compound average growth per year (CAGR) from the fiscal year 3, 5 or N years back to the most recent comparable fiscal year. Not per share: buybacks do not change this number, and a merger can appear as a growth jump. Per-share growth (which does include buybacks) is in the value-creation card.
+9.2%
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What shareholders gained per year (last 5 years) ⓘWhat the business itself delivers per year: earnings growth per share plus the dividend yield. This is what you get IF the market keeps valuing the stock the same way: it contains no assumption about the market changing its mind. Computed per share, so buybacks count and a merger does not pass as growth. For a company that pays no dividend it is pure earnings growth per share. Period: earnings growth per share as CAGR over the last 5 reported fiscal years (annual statements), plus the current dividend yield. The start value is the median of the three years around the start, so a single crisis year (a pandemic or a write-down) does not distort the rate. Basis: adjusted.
−19.3%
Earnings growth per share plus dividend.
Earnings per share, growth per year−20.9%
Dividend (yield on the price)1.6%
Pace: 5 vs 10 years ⓘTwo data points, not a trend model: earnings growth per share over the last 5 fiscal years against the last 10. Labelled "steady" when both rates are within 3 percentage points of each other, otherwise picking up or flattening. Shown only when ten years of history exist.−24.0% vs −5.1%, slowing
Profit margin 2020 to 2025 ⓘOperating margin then vs now, from reported annual statements. A falling margin after a boom year is the classic peak-earnings signal: the growth rate then leans on an inflated base.7% → 9%
Start year 2020 (pandemic)
Growth Forecast
A lot of optimism in the price
The price assumes more growth than the company has delivered so far and more than analysts expect.
What the price assumes ⓘThis turns our valuation around: instead of asking what the share is worth, it asks what growth the current price requires. It uses the cash the company keeps after all spending (free cash flow), the same discount rate as our models, five years of growth, then slowing evenly to 2 % a year by year ten. Compared with the analysts' sales forecasts extended to the same five years (at least three analysts, for context only, it does not enter the Fair Value): within 3 percentage points counts as "in line" (amber), below that little optimism (green), above that a lot of optimism (red).
+38.8%
Yearly growth needed for the next five years to justify today's price.
What forecasts expect ⓘAnalysts publish sales forecasts for the next two fiscal years. For the years after that, growth slows evenly to 2 % a year by year ten (2 % is the long-run rate our models use). Projected years are marked as such.
+5.9%
Yearly sales growth analysts expect, extended to five years.
After inflation (USA: IMF forecast 2.4% a year to 2030, 3.1% from 2016 to 2025) that is about +35.6% a year for the price and +3.5% for the forecasts.
News mood ⓘNews mood, the average tone of recent news (98 articles), rated against how stocks are usually covered. 🚀 Hype = unusually upbeat · 🙂 Positive = above average · 😐 Neutral = typical · 🙁 Negative = below average · 😨 Very negative = unusually downbeat. It reflects the tone of coverage, not our valuation.Positive
Recent news coverage is more positive than average.
Price, fair value, quality and upside side by side.
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Peer GroupⓘHow this stock ranks against its industry: the green marker is this stock, the band is the typical 25–75% peer range, and the tick is the median.Farm & Heavy Construction Machinery · 145 stocks
Beats the industry median on 4/11 measures
Overall it trails its industry peers.
Valuation
Quality Score40 · Bottom 25%
Fair Value upside+14.5% · Above median
Profitability
Return on equity (TTM)13.3% · Above median
Return on assets5.4% · Above median
Net margin (TTM)5.5% · Below median
Operating margin (TTM)3.6% · Bottom 25%
Growth and dividend
Revenue growth0.2% · Below median
Dividend yield (TTM)1.6% · Below median
Balance sheet
Debt / equity0.24× · Above median
Valuation Multiplesvs Farm & Heavy Construction Machinery median · lower = cheaper
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Cite: Fair Value Calculator (2026). "Oshkosh Corporation Fair Value". https://www.fairvalue-calculator.com/stock/OSK
Frequently asked questions
Is Oshkosh Corporation (OSK) overvalued or undervalued?
As of Sep 27, 2026, our model estimates a fair value of $149.82 versus a price of $133.85, about +12% upside (undervalued).
What is the fair value of OSK?
Our model-based fair value for Oshkosh Corporation is $149.82 (as of Sep 27, 2026), built from audited fundamentals. The current price: $133.85.
What is the quality score of OSK?
Oshkosh Corporation has a Quality Score of 40/100. It measures business quality (profitability, growth, cash flow, balance-sheet strength, investment discipline, share issuance). Market factors such as price momentum and volatility do not enter the number; they are shown separately in the detail view.
What is the price target for Oshkosh Corporation (OSK)?
Our model-based price target is the fair value of $149.82 (as of Sep 27, 2026) from 26 valuation models. Cautious scenario $101.26, optimistic scenario $229.19. It is a calculation from audited fundamentals, not an analyst target.
What is the Oshkosh Corporation stock forecast for 2026?
Our models put fair value at $149.82, about +12% upside versus a price of $133.85 (undervalued). Cautious scenario $101.26, optimistic scenario $229.19. The calculation is refreshed regularly with new filings.
What is the revenue of Oshkosh Corporation (OSK)?
Oshkosh Corporation reported trailing-twelve-month revenue of about $10.4B (latest available figure, as of Sep 27, 2026).
Does Oshkosh Corporation pay a dividend?
Oshkosh Corporation currently shows a dividend yield of about 1.57% relative to its recent price (as of Sep 27, 2026).
What growth is priced into Oshkosh Corporation (OSK)?
For today's price to be fair in a discounted-cash-flow model, Oshkosh Corporation would have to grow free cash flow by +38.8 % per year for five years (discount rate 10.3 %, then slowing evenly to 2 % perpetual growth by year ten). Over the last 5 years revenue grew +8.7 % per year. As of Sep 27, 2026.
What discount rate (WACC) does the fair value of OSK use?
Our models discount Oshkosh Corporation at 10.3 %: a base by market capitalisation (mid), damped by beta 1.23, country premium for USA. The same rate applies in all 26 models.
What is a reverse DCF?
A reverse DCF turns the usual calculation around. Instead of deriving a value from assumptions, it takes today's price as given and asks: what free-cash-flow growth would a company have to deliver for exactly this price to be fair? The result is not a forecast but the expectation already priced in. For Oshkosh Corporation that is +38.8 % per year a year over ten years, using the same discount rate (10.3 %) and the same formula as our fair value.
How much growth has Oshkosh Corporation (OSK) delivered so far?
Over the past 5 years revenue at Oshkosh Corporation grew +8.7 % a year. The price currently implies +38.8 % per year free-cash-flow growth a year. Comparing the two shows how much confidence is in the price: if it demands more than has been delivered, the business has to accelerate for the maths to work.
How fast is the sector of Oshkosh Corporation (OSK) growing?
The median revenue growth in the sector is +7.3 % a year. That is the yardstick for the growth priced into Oshkosh Corporation (+38.8 % per year a year): it shows whether the expectation is within the usual range or beyond it.
What is the free cash flow yield of Oshkosh Corporation (OSK)?
The free-cash-flow yield on the price is 1.24 %: that much free cash flow Oshkosh Corporation produces per unit of market value. When it exceeds the discount rate of our models (10.3 %), the business already earns more than its cost of capital demands, and the price needs little additional growth.
What is the intrinsic value of Oshkosh Corporation (OSK)?
Intrinsic value and fair value mean the same thing: what the business is worth on its numbers, independent of the share price. For Oshkosh Corporation it is $149.82 per share (as of Sep 27, 2026), against a price of $133.85. It is the blended result of 26 valuation models (cash flow, earnings, asset, dividend).
Is Oshkosh Corporation stock overvalued or undervalued in 2026?
As of Sep 27, 2026, OSK trades below its calculated fair value: price $133.85, fair value $149.82, a gap of about +12% (undervalued). The calculation is refreshed with each new quarterly report, so the verdict can change during the year.
Is fair value the same as the market price of OSK?
No. The price is what the market pays today ($133.85); the fair value is what the company's own numbers justify ($149.82). For Oshkosh Corporation the two are $15.97 per share apart. That gap is exactly why we show both numbers side by side.
How much is Oshkosh Corporation worth?
The market values Oshkosh Corporation at about $9.0B (market capitalisation, as of Sep 27, 2026). Per share that is $133.85; our models calculate a fair value of $149.82 per share.
What do the bullish and bearish scenarios say about OSK?
Our models span a range for Oshkosh Corporation: cautious scenario $101.26, base $149.82, optimistic $229.19 per share (as of Sep 27, 2026, price $133.85). The range comes from different growth and margin assumptions, not from analyst opinions.
What is the P/E ratio of OSK?
Oshkosh Corporation trades at a price-to-earnings ratio of 15.2 (as of Sep 27, 2026). A P/E on its own says little: it compares the price with ONE year of profit, while our fair value of $149.82 is built from several models across several years. Other multiples: PEG 6.5.
What is the PEG ratio of OSK?
The PEG ratio of Oshkosh Corporation is 6.51 (P/E divided by earnings growth, as of Sep 27, 2026). That is above 1, so the growth is already paid for in the price.
How solid is the balance sheet of Oshkosh Corporation (OSK)?
Balance-sheet figures for Oshkosh Corporation (as of Sep 27, 2026): return on equity 13.3%, debt of 0.24 per unit of equity. They feed the Quality Score of 40/100, which measures business quality independently of the share price.
How far is OSK from its 52-week high?
Oshkosh Corporation trades at $133.85, about 24% below its 52-week high of $177.16 and 14% above the low of $117.67 (as of Oct 2, 2026). Distance from the high says nothing about value: that is what the fair value of $149.82 is for.
Which stocks are comparable to Oshkosh Corporation?
From the same area (Industrials) we also value Caterpillar Inc, Deere & Company, PACCAR Inc, Daimler Truck Holding, among others. Each of them has its own fair-value calculation on this site using the same models, so the comparison is like for like.
Is Oshkosh Corporation stock attractive at the current price?
The data as of Sep 27, 2026: price $133.85, calculated fair value $149.82 (+12%), Quality Score 40/100, from 26 models. Whether that fits your horizon and risk tolerance is your call. We provide the calculation, not investment advice.
How is the fair value of OSK calculated?
We run Oshkosh Corporation through 26 models from four families: discounted cash flow, earnings models, asset and balance-sheet models, and dividend models. Every model gets the same audited fundamentals; the result is the weighted average of $149.82, with the spread shown as a cautious and an optimistic scenario.
Is it still worth investing in stocks now?
The global stock market currently sits 14.5 % above its aggregate fair value. Oshkosh Corporation currently trades 11 % below its own fair value, and the market average says nothing about that. An expensive market is no reason to stay out and no reason to buy everything at once: keep a broad savings plan running, buy single stocks only with money you can do without, and hold part of your money liquid while the market is high. The full picture including sectors is on is it worth investing now.
What is the share price of Oshkosh Corporation (OSK)?
The closing price on Oct 2, 2026 was $133.85. Our model-based fair value is $149.82, about +12% upside (undervalued). We carry closing prices from our data provider, not a live tick.
What should I pay attention to with Oshkosh Corporation right now?
A fairly wide model range ($101.26 to $229.19) leaves room in how you read the outcome. The price sits in the lower half of our model range, the side with the larger margin of safety. Read the verdict with care: some models are missing inputs, so the estimate scatters more than usual.
Where does the earnings growth of Oshkosh Corporation (OSK) come from?
Earnings per share at Oshkosh Corporation grew +2.1 % a year from 2014 to 2025. Broken into its drivers: revenue per share −3.0 %, EBIT margin +3.6 %, tax rate +0.9 %, residual (interest, one-offs) +0.7 %. The four rates multiply to the earnings growth rate, they do not add up. Start and end are three-year averages so a single exceptional year does not distort the result.
Key figures of Oshkosh Corporation
How large is the market capitalisation of Oshkosh Corporation (OSK)?
The market capitalisation of Oshkosh Corporation is $9.0B. The stock-market value of the whole company: share price times number of shares. It is what the market asks for the entire business today.
What is the P/S ratio of Oshkosh Corporation (OSK)?
The price-to-sales ratio of Oshkosh Corporation is 0.95 (P/E × margin). Price to sales: market value relative to yearly revenue. Useful when profit is thin or distorted.
What are the earnings per share of Oshkosh Corporation (OSK)?
Earnings per share at Oshkosh Corporation are $8.79 (price ÷ EPS = P/E 15.2). Earnings per share over the last twelve months: total profit spread across every single share.
What is the dividend yield of Oshkosh Corporation (OSK)?
The dividend yield of Oshkosh Corporation is 1.6% (payout 23.9%). Yearly dividend relative to the share price. 3% pays 3 per 100 invested. Below: how much of profit is used for it.
What is the net margin of Oshkosh Corporation (OSK)?
The net margin of Oshkosh Corporation is 6.2% (fiscal year 2025). How much of every unit of revenue ends up as profit. 10% means 10 cents of profit per dollar of sales.
What is the return on equity of Oshkosh Corporation (OSK)?
The return on equity (ROE) of Oshkosh Corporation is 13.3% (last twelve months). Profit relative to shareholders' equity, how efficiently the company works with its owners' money.
What is the EBIT return on assets of Oshkosh Corporation (OSK)?
On an EBIT basis the return on assets of Oshkosh Corporation is 8.4% (avg 5y). Operating profit (EBIT) relative to everything the company owns, as a multi-year average. It describes the business model rather than one good or bad year.
What is the operating margin of Oshkosh Corporation (OSK)?
The operating margin of Oshkosh Corporation is 3.6% (last twelve months). Profit from the core business (before interest and taxes) relative to revenue.
How fast is revenue growing at Oshkosh Corporation (OSK)?
Revenue at Oshkosh Corporation is growing +0.2% versus a year earlier (3y avg +8.0%). How much revenue grew versus a year earlier (YoY). The 3-year average next to it puts the single year in context.
How fast are earnings growing at Oshkosh Corporation (OSK)?
Earnings per share at Oshkosh Corporation are growing −60.5% versus a year earlier. How much earnings per share grew versus a year earlier.
How much net debt does Oshkosh Corporation (OSK) carry?
The net debt of Oshkosh Corporation is $1.1B (fiscal year 2025, ≈ 1.7 yrs of FCF). Debt minus cash on hand. The note shows how many years of free cash flow could in theory pay it off.
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Some data
Sep 27, 2026