Otsuka Holdings Co Ltd (OTSKY) fair value: what the stock is really worth
As of Oct 16, 2026: fair value of Otsuka Holdings Co Ltd $45.96, price $38.64, upside +18.9%, quality 68 out of 100. Calculated from audited financials with 26 valuation models and 37 quality factors, updated daily.
69 individual criteria per stock, every one traceableSee the method →
Price vs Fair Value
White line = price, green steps = our fair value per fiscal year, dashed = 300-day average. As of Oct 14, 2026.
How to read this chart
60‑month range $13.76 – $40.45 · fair‑value band $29.60 – $57.21 · the $38.64 price screens below the $45.96 fair value. Green steps = our fair value per fiscal year (point-in-time, no hindsight). Dashed = 300-day average. As of Oct 14, 2026.
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Otsuka Holdings Co., Ltd. engages in the pharmaceuticals, nutraceuticals, consumer products, and other businesses worldwide.
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It develops pharmaceutical products in the fields of psychiatry, neurology, oncology, cardiovascular and renal system, autoimmune space digestive system, ophthalmology, and diagnostics, as well as intravenous solutions and medical devices.
It also provides clinical testing, medical equipment and tools, food products, cosmetics, functional food products, chemical products, soft drinks, beverages, analytical and measurement equipment, nutritional products, vehicle headlight testers, synthetic resin molded products, paper products, quasi-drugs, household products, and packaging materials and electronic parts.
In addition, it offers IT solutions; adhesive tapes; flaky titanate and compounds; infusion and clinical nutrition products; hydrazine; plant-based food products; reinsurance underwriting services; wine; stable isotopes; food supplements; software and services for management of mental healthcare systems; anticancer drugs; terracess; bio-pesticides; dietetic food products; spring and mineral water; and polyolefin foams.
Further, it engages in the warehousing and transport, medical device operational management, shared service, environmental health management, and venture capital and incubation businesses; rental of medical devices and related products; purchase and sale of agricultural products; import and export trading business; tuberculosis research and development activities; rental of space and office businesses; manufacturing and development of xenotransplantation products; and processing and marketing of functional films, as well as planning, design, production, and construction of ceramic boards and arts, ceramic walls, reliefs, terracotta, ceramic OT and portraits, and ceramic sign boards; and operation of travel agency, and Hotel Ridge and California Table.
The company was founded in 1921 and is headquartered in Chiyoda, Japan.
Stock analysis
Otsuka Holdings Co Ltd ADR (OTSKY) currently trades at $38.64, while our model-based Fair Value estimate is $45.96, implying the stock looks roughly 15.9% undervalued today.
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Valuation
Bull case: the Multiples group reads highest at a median of $47.05 per share, and 17 of the 26 models we run sit above the $38.64 price.
Bear case: the Dividend Discount group reads lowest at $7.12, and 9 of the 26 models stay below the price. Data coverage for this calculation is high.
Scenario range: $29.60 (bear) to $57.21 (bull), the price of $38.64 sits inside it. Bear and bull are the same models on cautious and optimistic assumptions, a range, not a price target.
Quality & growth
The Quality Score stands at 68/100 (solid quality), in the Healthcare sector.
Healthy Growth: Revenue growth appears healthy and is supported by profitability and cash-flow quality.
Otsuka Holdings Co Ltd ADR reported revenue of ¥2.6T in FY2025 versus ¥1.5T in FY2021, a compound +14.6%/yr. Reported net income was ¥381B in FY2025, compounding +32.0%/yr from FY2021.
Key figures
Market cap $40.7B · P/E ratio 16.4 · P/S ratio 2.41 · EPS (TTM) $2.36 · Dividend yield 1.5% · Net margin 14.7% · Return on equity 13.4% · Return on assets (EBIT) 6.7%.
Competitive moat
Our AI-assisted moat analysis scores the competitive advantage at 65 out of 100 (medium confidence).
What moves the price
The share trades about 4% below its 52-week high and 48% above its 52-week low, currently above its 200-day average.
For context, the median of 10 Healthcare peers we cover trades at −5% fair-value upside, at 19%, OTSKY screens cheaper than that median.
Fair Value models
Bear$29.60Fair Value $45.96Bull$57.21
Price $38.64 · Upside +18.9%
Model ⓘEach model values the company its own way (discounted cash flow, earnings, assets, dividends). The fair value above is their evidence-weighted blend, not the output of a single model.Bear ⓘBear = the cautious scenario: the same model computed with conservative anchors (lower growth, margins and valuation multiples). Together with Bull it frames a plausible valuation range, not a price target.BaseBull ⓘBull = the optimistic scenario: the same model computed with favourable anchors (higher growth, margins and valuation multiples). Together with Bear it frames a plausible valuation range, not a price target. If a model's bull case is above four times its base value, the table shows that limit with a > sign (like the overall Bull above): beyond it no assumption holds.Coverage ⓘCoverage = how well-backed THIS model's estimate is for this stock (0–100): how complete and reliable its input data are, and how well the model fits the company. The final Fair Value is an evidence-weighted blend, so better-evidenced models count more. Green ≥70, amber 50–69, grey below 50.
Growth Quality ⓘGrowth is valuable only when reinvestment earns attractive returns (Aswath Damodaran): sustainable growth depends on return on capital, reinvestment and efficiency. Basis: total company revenue over the periods shown on the cards (3Y/5Y/all years), not per share, so a merger can show up as a growth jump; per-share earnings growth is in the value-creation card.97/100
Revenue growth appears healthy and is supported by profitability and cash-flow quality.
Revenue growth 1 year
+11.1%
Revenue growth 3 years ⓘMeasures the company's TOTAL revenue from reported annual statements: compound average growth per year (CAGR) from the fiscal year 3, 5 or N years back to the most recent comparable fiscal year. Not per share: buybacks do not change this number, and a merger can appear as a growth jump. Per-share growth (which does include buybacks) is in the value-creation card.
+14.2%
Revenue growth 5 years ⓘMeasures the company's TOTAL revenue from reported annual statements: compound average growth per year (CAGR) from the fiscal year 3, 5 or N years back to the most recent comparable fiscal year. Not per share: buybacks do not change this number, and a merger can appear as a growth jump. Per-share growth (which does include buybacks) is in the value-creation card.
+12.7%
Start year 2020 (pandemic). Over 10 years: +6.0% a year
Revenue growth 17 years ⓘMeasures the company's TOTAL revenue from reported annual statements: compound average growth per year (CAGR) from the fiscal year 3, 5 or N years back to the most recent comparable fiscal year. Not per share: buybacks do not change this number, and a merger can appear as a growth jump. Per-share growth (which does include buybacks) is in the value-creation card.
+6.0%
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What shareholders gained per year (last 5 years), in JPY (mathematically smoothed) ⓘWhat the business itself delivers per year: earnings growth per share plus the dividend yield. This is what you get IF the market keeps valuing the stock the same way: it contains no assumption about the market changing its mind. Computed per share, so buybacks count and a merger does not pass as growth. For a company that pays no dividend it is pure earnings growth per share. Period: earnings growth per share as CAGR over the last 5 reported fiscal years (annual statements), plus the current dividend yield. The start value is the median of the three years around the start, so a single crisis year (a pandemic or a write-down) does not distort the rate. Smoothed = median of all growth paths between the years of the window (trend line on the logarithm of earnings per share): a single extreme year cannot distort the rate. The reported figure stays in the tooltip. Measured in JPY: this currency has depreciated against the euro and dollar over the long run, so part of the nominal rate is currency erosion that never reaches a EUR/USD investor.
+22.8%
Earnings growth per share plus dividend.
Earnings per share, growth per year+21.3%
Dividend (yield on the price)1.5%
Pace: 5 vs 10 years ⓘTwo data points, not a trend model: earnings growth per share over the last 5 fiscal years against the last 10. Labelled "steady" when both rates are within 3 percentage points of each other, otherwise picking up or flattening. Shown only when ten years of history exist.25.1% vs 15.4%, picking up
Profit margin 2020 to 2025 ⓘOperating margin then vs now, from reported annual statements. A falling margin after a boom year is the classic peak-earnings signal: the growth rate then leans on an inflated base.14% → 17%
2025 sits 191% above its own trend. The rate follows the median trend of the last 5 years, not that single year.
Pace: the 5-year rate starts in 2020 (pandemic)
Growth Forecast
A lot of optimism in the price
The price assumes less growth than the company has delivered so far and more than analysts expect.
What the price assumes ⓘThis turns our valuation around: instead of asking what the share is worth, it asks what growth the current price requires. It uses the cash the company keeps after all spending (free cash flow), the same discount rate as our models, five years of growth, then slowing evenly to 2 % a year by year ten. Compared with the analysts' sales forecasts extended to the same five years (at least three analysts, for context only, it does not enter the Fair Value): within 3 percentage points counts as "in line" (amber), below that little optimism (green), above that a lot of optimism (red).
+6.5%
Yearly growth needed for the next five years to justify today's price.
What forecasts expect ⓘAnalysts publish sales forecasts for the next two fiscal years. For the years after that, growth slows evenly to 2 % a year by year ten (2 % is the long-run rate our models use). Projected years are marked as such.
+3.0%
Yearly sales growth analysts expect, extended to five years.
After inflation (figures in JPY, Japan: IMF forecast 2.1% a year to 2030, 1.3% from 2016 to 2025) that is about +4.3% a year for the price and +0.9% for the forecasts.
AI conclusion: High gross margins and cash conversion give modest support, while the main weakness is the lack of clear public evidence for a durable moat and limited governance data.
Main risk: If the renal pipeline fails to deliver material expansion the business would remain dependent on existing core segments with limited growth visibility.
Otsuka just completed the rolling sBLA submission for its IgA nephropathy treatment toward full US approval and calls the asset a key medium- to long-term growth driver. The 2026 earnings outlook stays unchanged. Our models see the business as undervalued. Will the renal pipeline step create material expansion beyond existing operations, or will core segments continue to dominate results?
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Peer GroupⓘHow this stock ranks against its industry: the green marker is this stock, the band is the typical 25–75% peer range, and the tick is the median.Drug Manufacturers - General · 74 stocks
Beats the industry median on 13/14 measures
Overall it ranks above its industry peers.
Valuation
Quality Score68 · Above median
Fair Value upside+20.6% · Above median
Profitability
Return on equity (12 months)13.4% · Above median
Return on assets9.1% · Above median
Net margin (12 months)15.5% · Above median
Operating margin (12 months)20.5% · Above median
Growth and dividend
Revenue growth17.4% · Top 25%
Dividend yield (12 months)1.5% · Below median
Balance sheet
Debt / equity0.03× · Below median
Valuation Multiplesvs Drug Manufacturers - General median · lower = cheaper
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Cite: Fair Value Calculator (2026). "Otsuka Holdings Co Ltd ADR Fair Value". https://www.fairvalue-calculator.com/stock/OTSKY
Frequently asked questions
Is Otsuka Holdings Co Ltd (OTSKY) overvalued or undervalued?
As of Oct 14, 2026, our model estimates a fair value of $45.96 versus a price of $38.64, about +19% upside (undervalued).
What is the fair value of OTSKY?
Our model-based fair value for Otsuka Holdings Co Ltd ADR is $45.96 (as of Oct 14, 2026), built from audited fundamentals. The current price: $38.64.
What is the quality score of OTSKY?
Otsuka Holdings Co Ltd ADR has a Quality Score of 68/100. It measures business quality (profitability, growth, cash flow, balance-sheet strength, investment discipline, share issuance). Market factors such as price momentum and volatility do not enter the number; they are shown separately in the detail view.
What is the price target for Otsuka Holdings Co Ltd (OTSKY)?
Our model-based price target is the fair value of $45.96 (as of Oct 14, 2026) from 26 valuation models. Cautious scenario $29.60, optimistic scenario $57.21. It is a calculation from audited fundamentals, not an analyst target.
What is the Otsuka Holdings Co Ltd ADR stock forecast for 2026?
Our models put fair value at $45.96, about +19% upside versus a price of $38.64 (undervalued). Cautious scenario $29.60, optimistic scenario $57.21. The calculation is refreshed regularly with new filings.
What is the revenue of Otsuka Holdings Co Ltd (OTSKY)?
Otsuka Holdings Co Ltd ADR reported trailing-twelve-month revenue of about ¥2.6T (latest available figure, as of Oct 14, 2026).
Does Otsuka Holdings Co Ltd ADR pay a dividend?
Otsuka Holdings Co Ltd ADR currently shows a dividend yield of about 1.52% relative to its recent price (as of Oct 14, 2026).
What growth is priced into Otsuka Holdings Co Ltd (OTSKY)?
For today's price to be fair in a discounted-cash-flow model, Otsuka Holdings Co Ltd ADR would have to grow free cash flow by +6.5 % per year for five years (discount rate 9.2 %, then slowing evenly to 2 % perpetual growth by year ten). Over the last 5 years revenue grew +12.7 % per year. As of Oct 14, 2026.
What discount rate (WACC) does the fair value of OTSKY use?
Our models discount Otsuka Holdings Co Ltd ADR at 9.2 %: a base by market capitalisation (large), country premium for USA. The same rate applies in all 26 models.
What is a reverse DCF?
A reverse DCF turns the usual calculation around. Instead of deriving a value from assumptions, it takes today's price as given and asks: what free-cash-flow growth would a company have to deliver for exactly this price to be fair? The result is not a forecast but the expectation already priced in. For Otsuka Holdings Co Ltd ADR that is +6.5 % per year a year over ten years, using the same discount rate (9.2 %) and the same formula as our fair value.
How much growth has Otsuka Holdings Co Ltd (OTSKY) delivered so far?
Over the past 5 years revenue at Otsuka Holdings Co Ltd ADR grew +12.7 % a year. The price currently implies +6.5 % per year free-cash-flow growth a year. Comparing the two shows how much confidence is in the price: if it demands more than has been delivered, the business has to accelerate for the maths to work.
How fast is the sector of Otsuka Holdings Co Ltd (OTSKY) growing?
The median revenue growth in the sector is +5.6 % a year. That is the yardstick for the growth priced into Otsuka Holdings Co Ltd ADR (+6.5 % per year a year): it shows whether the expectation is within the usual range or beyond it.
What is the free cash flow yield of Otsuka Holdings Co Ltd (OTSKY)?
The free-cash-flow yield on the price is 5.15 %: that much free cash flow Otsuka Holdings Co Ltd ADR produces per unit of market value. When it exceeds the discount rate of our models (9.2 %), the business already earns more than its cost of capital demands, and the price needs little additional growth.
What is the intrinsic value of Otsuka Holdings Co Ltd (OTSKY)?
Intrinsic value and fair value mean the same thing: what the business is worth on its numbers, independent of the share price. For Otsuka Holdings Co Ltd ADR it is $45.96 per share (as of Oct 14, 2026), against a price of $38.64. It is the blended result of 26 valuation models (cash flow, earnings, asset, dividend).
Is Otsuka Holdings Co Ltd ADR stock overvalued or undervalued in 2026?
As of Oct 14, 2026, OTSKY trades below its calculated fair value: price $38.64, fair value $45.96, a gap of about +19% (undervalued). The calculation is refreshed with each new quarterly report, so the verdict can change during the year.
Is fair value the same as the market price of OTSKY?
No. The price is what the market pays today ($38.64); the fair value is what the company's own numbers justify ($45.96). For Otsuka Holdings Co Ltd ADR the two are $7.32 per share apart. That gap is exactly why we show both numbers side by side.
How much is Otsuka Holdings Co Ltd ADR worth?
The market values Otsuka Holdings Co Ltd ADR at about $40.7B (market capitalisation, as of Oct 14, 2026). Per share that is $38.64; our models calculate a fair value of $45.96 per share.
What do the bullish and bearish scenarios say about OTSKY?
Our models span a range for Otsuka Holdings Co Ltd ADR: cautious scenario $29.60, base $45.96, optimistic $57.21 per share (as of Oct 14, 2026, price $38.64). The range comes from different growth and margin assumptions, not from analyst opinions.
What is the P/E ratio of OTSKY?
Otsuka Holdings Co Ltd ADR trades at a price-to-earnings ratio of 16.4 (as of Oct 14, 2026). A P/E on its own says little: it compares the price with ONE year of profit, while our fair value of $45.96 is built from several models across several years. Other multiples: P/B 2.1, P/S 2.4, EV/EBITDA 10.1.
How solid is the balance sheet of Otsuka Holdings Co Ltd (OTSKY)?
Balance-sheet figures for Otsuka Holdings Co Ltd ADR (as of Oct 14, 2026): return on equity 13.4%, debt of 0.03 per unit of equity. They feed the Quality Score of 68/100, which measures business quality independently of the share price.
How far is OTSKY from its 52-week high?
Otsuka Holdings Co Ltd ADR trades at $38.64, about 4% below its 52-week high of $40.45 and 48% above the low of $26.07 (as of Oct 16, 2026). Distance from the high says nothing about value: that is what the fair value of $45.96 is for.
Which stocks are comparable to Otsuka Holdings Co Ltd ADR?
From the same area (Healthcare) we also value Eli Lilly and Company, Johnson & Johnson,, AbbVie Inc, Roche Holding, among others. Each of them has its own fair-value calculation on this site using the same models, so the comparison is like for like.
Is Otsuka Holdings Co Ltd ADR stock attractive at the current price?
The data as of Oct 14, 2026: price $38.64, calculated fair value $45.96 (+19%), Quality Score 68/100, from 26 models. Whether that fits your horizon and risk tolerance is your call. We provide the calculation, not investment advice.
How is the fair value of OTSKY calculated?
We run Otsuka Holdings Co Ltd ADR through 26 models from four families: discounted cash flow, earnings models, asset and balance-sheet models, and dividend models. Every model gets the same audited fundamentals; the result is the weighted average of $45.96, with the spread shown as a cautious and an optimistic scenario.
Is it still worth investing in stocks now?
The global stock market currently sits 14.4 % above its aggregate fair value. Otsuka Holdings Co Ltd ADR currently trades 16 % below its own fair value, and the market average says nothing about that. An expensive market is no reason to stay out and no reason to buy everything at once: keep a broad savings plan running, buy single stocks only with money you can do without, and hold part of your money liquid while the market is high. The full picture including sectors is on is it worth investing now.
What is the share price of Otsuka Holdings Co Ltd (OTSKY)?
The closing price on Oct 16, 2026 was $38.64. Our model-based fair value is $45.96, about +19% upside (undervalued). We carry closing prices from our data provider, not a live tick.
What should I pay attention to with Otsuka Holdings Co Ltd ADR right now?
A fairly wide model range ($29.60 to $57.21) leaves room in how you read the outcome. The price sits in the lower half of our model range, the side with the larger margin of safety. The data supports the verdict: every model runs on fully documented inputs.
Where does the earnings growth of Otsuka Holdings Co Ltd (OTSKY) come from?
Earnings per share at Otsuka Holdings Co Ltd ADR grew +11.2 % a year from 2014 to 2025. Broken into its drivers: revenue per share +5.7 %, EBIT margin +1.9 %, tax rate +2.7 %, residual (interest, one-offs) +0.5 %. The four rates multiply to the earnings growth rate, they do not add up. Start and end are three-year averages so a single exceptional year does not distort the result.
Key figures of Otsuka Holdings Co Ltd ADR
How large is the market capitalisation of Otsuka Holdings Co Ltd (OTSKY)?
The market capitalisation of Otsuka Holdings Co Ltd ADR is $40.7B. The stock-market value of the whole company: share price times number of shares. It is what the market asks for the entire business today.
What is the P/S ratio of Otsuka Holdings Co Ltd (OTSKY)?
The price-to-sales ratio of Otsuka Holdings Co Ltd ADR is 2.41 (P/E × margin). Price to sales: market value relative to yearly revenue. Useful when profit is thin or distorted.
What are the earnings per share of Otsuka Holdings Co Ltd (OTSKY)?
Earnings per share at Otsuka Holdings Co Ltd ADR are $2.36 (price ÷ EPS = P/E 16.4). Earnings per share over the last twelve months: total profit spread across every single share.
What is the dividend yield of Otsuka Holdings Co Ltd (OTSKY)?
The dividend yield of Otsuka Holdings Co Ltd ADR is 1.5% (payout 24.9%). Yearly dividend relative to the share price. 3% pays 3 per 100 invested. Below: how much of profit is used for it.
What is the net margin of Otsuka Holdings Co Ltd (OTSKY)?
The net margin of Otsuka Holdings Co Ltd ADR is 14.7% (fiscal year 2025). How much of every unit of revenue ends up as profit. 10% means 10 cents of profit per dollar of sales.
What is the return on equity of Otsuka Holdings Co Ltd (OTSKY)?
The return on equity (ROE) of Otsuka Holdings Co Ltd ADR is 13.4% (last twelve months). Profit relative to shareholders' equity, how efficiently the company works with its owners' money.
What is the EBIT return on assets of Otsuka Holdings Co Ltd (OTSKY)?
On an EBIT basis the return on assets of Otsuka Holdings Co Ltd ADR is 6.7% (avg 5y). Operating profit (EBIT) relative to everything the company owns, as a multi-year average. It describes the business model rather than one good or bad year.
What is the operating margin of Otsuka Holdings Co Ltd (OTSKY)?
The operating margin of Otsuka Holdings Co Ltd ADR is 20.5% (last twelve months). Profit from the core business (before interest and taxes) relative to revenue.
How fast is revenue growing at Otsuka Holdings Co Ltd (OTSKY)?
Revenue at Otsuka Holdings Co Ltd ADR is growing +17.4% versus a year earlier (3y avg +14.2%). How much revenue grew versus a year earlier (YoY). The 3-year average next to it puts the single year in context.
How fast are earnings growing at Otsuka Holdings Co Ltd (OTSKY)?
Earnings per share at Otsuka Holdings Co Ltd ADR are growing +32.9% versus a year earlier. How much earnings per share grew versus a year earlier.
How much net cash does Otsuka Holdings Co Ltd (OTSKY) hold?
Otsuka Holdings Co Ltd ADR holds more cash than debt, ¥307B net (fiscal year 2025). The company holds more cash than debt, a safety cushion.
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Broad data
Oct 14, 2026