Ovintiv Inc (OVV) Fair Value & Analysis
Energy · US · Market cap $15.9B
Ovintiv Inc
OVV · US
Fair value as of: Jul 18, 2026
From 24 valuation models · updated 20 days ago
Fair value updated Jul 18, 2026, revised from $50.60 to $50.86 (+0.5%) since Jun 24, 2026. Share price +8.9% over the past month.
A solid business, but screening 15% overvalued on our models.
What matters now
- Solid but not exceptional quality (59/100) and above fair value, neither a clear bargain nor a standout compounder.
- A fairly wide model range ($37.23 to $75.05) leaves room in how you read the outcome.
Price vs Fair Value (5 years)
White line = price, green steps = our fair value per fiscal year, dashed = 300-day average. As of Jul 18, 2026.
How to read this chart
60‑month range $20.01 – $63.13 · fair‑value band $37.23 – $75.05 · the $59.86 price screens above the $50.86 fair value. Green steps = our fair value per fiscal year (point-in-time, no hindsight). Dashed = 300-day average. As of Jul 18, 2026.
Analysis
Ovintiv Inc (OVV) currently trades at $59.86, while our model-based Fair Value estimate is $50.86, implying the stock looks roughly 15.0% overvalued today. We read business quality at 59/100 (solid quality), in the Energy sector. Bear case: priced above our estimate, the market already discounts strong expectations. Bull case: above-average quality can justify a premium, the entry price still matters most (evidence: high).
Over the trailing twelve months, Ovintiv Inc generated revenue of $8.9B at a net margin of 8.7%. Revenue grew 8.5% year over year. It earns a return on equity of 7.1%. Net debt stands at $7.5B. Fundamentals as of Jul 18, 2026
Our scenario range runs from $37.23 (bear case) to $75.05 (bull case); at $59.86, the current price sits within that range. Bear and bull are the same models run on conservative and optimistic assumptions (margins, growth, valuation multiples), so a plausible valuation range, not a price target. The share trades about 6% below its 52-week high and 71% above its 52-week low, currently above its 200-day average. For context, the median of 10 Energy peers we cover trades at -26% fair-value upside, at -15%, OVV screens cheaper than that median.
Fair Value models
Each model estimates fair value its own way; the Fair Value above is the evidence-weighted blend. Evidence (0–100) measures how completely this model’s inputs are available: well-fed models carry more weight in the blend. The spread across models is intentional, each one stresses a different value driver; dividend models, for instance, come out structurally low when payout is small.
All 24 models by family
Widest divergence: Multiples ($75.13) versus Dividend Discount ($11.01). Highest evidence: Growth DCF (80).
Key figures & financial health
More key figures
Figures from reported company fundamentals · as of Jul 18, 2026. TTM = trailing twelve months.
Quality Score breakdown
Of which business quality 50 · Market factors (momentum, volatility) 78
Non-valuation factor families (profitability, growth, cashflow, financial strength, momentum …), each academically grounded. Valuation itself sits in the Fair Value and is deliberately excluded here to avoid double-counting.
About the company
Ovintiv Inc., together with its subsidiaries, operates as an oil and natural gas exploration and production company in North America. The company operates through USA Operations and Canadian Operations segments.
Full company description
Ovintiv Inc., together with its subsidiaries, operates as an oil and natural gas exploration and production company in North America. The company operates through USA Operations and Canadian Operations segments. It is involved in the exploration, development, production, and marketing of oil, NGLs, natural gas and other related activities in the Permian in West Texas and Anadarko in West-central Oklahoma in the United States, as well as in northwest Alberta and northeast British Columbia. The company was formerly known as Encana Corporation and changed its name to Ovintiv Inc. in January 2020. Ovintiv Inc. was incorporated in 2020 and is based in Denver, Colorado.
Company description, as reported by the company or data provider.
Revenue & earnings trend
FY2021 – FY2025 · reported fiscal years
Ovintiv Inc reported revenue of $8.7B in FY2025 versus $8.7B in FY2021, a compound +0.2%/yr. Reported net income was $1.2B in FY2025, compounding −3.2%/yr from FY2021.
OVV screens 15% overvalued. Compare with CNOOC Limited →
Recent news
External third-party headlines (Yahoo Finance, Reuters and others), not an editorial selection.
- Ovintiv (OVV) Earnings And 2026 Guidance Put Its Valuation Back In Focus
- How Investors May Respond To Ovintiv (OVV) Q2 Earnings Beat, Guidance Update, And Capital Returns
- Why Ovintiv's Permian and Montney Assets Matter for Investors Today
- Ovintiv Positioned for Valuation Upside as Portfolio Strength, Returns Improve, RBC Says
Peer Group
Oil & Gas E&P · 316 stocks
How this stock ranks against its industry: the green marker is this stock, the band is the typical 25–75% peer range, and the tick is the median.
Valuation Multiples vs Oil & Gas E&P median · lower = cheaper
Snowflake
Five quick dimensions, each 0 to 100: VALUE (fair-value potential), FUTURE (revenue growth), PAST (return on equity), HEALTH (low debt), DIVIDEND (yield). Green = this stock, grey = typical sector peer.
Insider activity: 44/100
Values & ESG
Does this company touch areas you may want to avoid? The classification is inferred from sector and industry.
ESG scores are not available for this stock yet. Values and ESG data are contextual and can differ between providers.
Similar stocks
10 more Oil & Gas E&P stocks, each showing price versus our Fair Value estimate (as of Jul 18, 2026).
| Stock | Price | Fair Value | vs Fair Value |
|---|---|---|---|
| CNOOC Limited 600938 | ¥28.97 | ¥32.55 | +12% |
| ConocoPhillips explores for, COP | $109.04 | $91.79 | -16% |
| Canadian Natural Resources Limited CNQ | $42.86 | $31.54 | -26% |
| EOG Resources, Inc EOG | $139.89 | $130.19 | -7% |
| Occidental Petroleum Corporation OXY | $54.86 | $30.68 | -44% |
| Diamondback Energy, Inc FANG | $183.39 | $106.12 | -42% |
| Devon Energy Corporation DVN | $43.83 | $27.06 | -38% |
| Woodside Energy Group WDS | A$30.46 | A$20.71 | -32% |
| EQT Corporation EQT | $48.85 | $42.85 | -12% |
| Texas Pacific Land Corporation TPL | $415.70 | $79.20 | -81% |
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How we calculate Fair Value
Each company is valued through a stack of independent intrinsic-value models (DCF variants, residual-income, multiples and more), blended into one family-balanced consensus and weighted by how much trustworthy data backs it. A separate quality layer scores the fundamentals. Every input is real reported data, nothing guessed.
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