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Pan African Resources PLC (PAN) fair value: what the stock is really worth
As of Oct 15, 2026: fair value of Pan African Resources PLC ZAR 48.99, price ZAR 25.62, upside +91.2%, quality 54 out of 100. Calculated from audited financials with 26 valuation models and 37 quality factors, updated daily.
- Fair value above price? Yes
- Good quality? Yes
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PA
Broad data
Oct 16, 2026
Broad data
Oct 16, 2026
Pan African Resources PLC
PAN · JSEClearly undervaluedStrong Fair Value upside, but quality is only moderate.
The stock costs 48% less than our calculation considers fair.
Fair value R48.99 · Strongly undervalued (+91.2%)
Highly profitable · 30.9% net margin (TTM)
Low debt
Generates free cash flow
Wide moat 100/100
Broad data
Quality 54/100
Expensive Growth (revenue 5y +25.7 %/yr in USD)
⟳ Cyclical
Watch Pan African Resources PLC for free: we tell you when fair value or trend changes.
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What runs behind every stock
26
valuation models
8 families, DCF to NCAV
37
quality factors
margins, balance sheet, cashflow, debt
6
AI factors
moat, what no ratio measures
2,000+
data points
verified, per stock, median
69 individual criteria per stock, every one traceable See the method →
Price vs Fair Value
White line = price, green steps = our fair value per fiscal year, dashed = 300-day average. As of Oct 16, 2026.
How to read this chart
60‑month range R2.67 – R38.81 · fair‑value band R34.78 – R79.95 · the R25.62 price screens below the R48.99 fair value. Dashed = 300-day average. As of Oct 16, 2026.
Company profile
Pan African Resources PLC engages in the mining, extraction, production, and sale of gold in South Africa.
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Its flagship projects include the Barberton Mines that consists of three underground mines, including Fairview, Sheba, and Consort located in the Barberton Greenstone Belt; and Elikhulu tailings retreatment plant in Southern Africa.
Pan African Resources PLC is headquartered in Johannesburg, South Africa.
Stock analysis
Pan African Resources PLC (PAN) currently trades at R25.62, while our model-based Fair Value estimate is R48.99, implying the stock looks roughly 47.7% undervalued today.
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Valuation
Bull case: the Growth Earnings group reads highest at a median of R92.59 per share, and 20 of the 26 models we run sit above the R25.62 price.
Bear case: the Asset-Based group reads lowest at R5.53, and 6 of the 26 models stay below the price. Data coverage for this calculation is high.
Scenario range: R34.78 (bear) to R79.95 (bull), the price of R25.62 sits below it. Bear and bull are the same models on cautious and optimistic assumptions, a range, not a price target.
Quality & growth
The Quality Score stands at 54/100 (solid quality), in the Basic Materials sector.
Expensive Growth: The company is growing, but growth may require heavy reinvestment or weak cash conversion.
Pan African Resources PLC reported revenue of $1.2B in FY2026 versus $376M in FY2022, a compound +32.4%/yr. Reported net income was $357M in FY2026, compounding +47.7%/yr from FY2022.
Key figures
Market cap 51.9B ZAC · P/E ratio 8.6 · P/S ratio 2.66 · EPS (TTM) R2.98 · Dividend yield 0.1% · Net margin 30.9% · Return on equity 45.1% · Return on assets (EBIT) 22.9%.
What moves the price
The share trades about 34% below its 52-week high and 38% above its 52-week low, currently below its 200-day average.
For context, the median of 10 Basic Materials peers we cover trades at 10% fair-value upside, at 91%, PAN screens cheaper than that median.
Fair Value models
Bear R34.78
Fair Value R48.99
Bull R79.95
Model ⓘEach model values the company its own way (discounted cash flow, earnings, assets, dividends). The fair value above is their evidence-weighted blend, not the output of a single model. Based on fiscal year 2026 figures (about 4 months old). Earnings retained since then (0.8735 ZAR per share) are deliberately not added.
Bear ⓘBear = the cautious scenario: the same model computed with conservative anchors (lower growth, margins and valuation multiples). Together with Bull it frames a plausible valuation range, not a price target.BaseBull ⓘBull = the optimistic scenario: the same model computed with favourable anchors (higher growth, margins and valuation multiples). Together with Bear it frames a plausible valuation range, not a price target. If a model's bull case is above four times its base value, the table shows that limit with a > sign (like the overall Bull above): beyond it no assumption holds.
Coverage ⓘCoverage = how well-backed THIS model's estimate is for this stock (0–100): how complete and reliable its input data are, and how well the model fits the company. The final Fair Value is an evidence-weighted blend, so better-evidenced models count more. Green ≥70, amber 50–69, grey below 50.
Best data coverage
FCF DCF
R45.33
R69.49
R144.82
76
Growth DCF
R42.60
R76.14
R141.78
75
EPV
R36.20
R41.83
R46.68
74
All 26 models by family
DCF Models
FCF DCF
R45.33
R69.49
R144.82
76
Owner Earnings
R26.10
R57.18
R120.01
71
5Y Revenue Exit
R20.98
R31.04
R51.70
71
5Y EBITDA Exit
R40.20
R69.91
R128.12
72
5Y P/E Exit
R40.06
R86.64
R149.74
68
10Y Revenue Exit
R28.21
R49.97
R60.31
67
10Y EBITDA Exit
R42.34
R90.42
R173.23
64
10Y P/E Exit
R42.24
R90.11
R167.89
60
Earnings-Based
Graham-Dodd
R19.29
R134.52
R188.78
63
Lynch FV
R56.02
R80.02
R104.03
61
PEG = 1.0
R56.02
R80.02
R104.03
57
EPV
R36.20
R41.83
R46.68
74
Dividend Discount
Gordon GGM
R1.62
R3.22
R4.88
67
DDM Multi-Stage
R1.62
R2.78
R3.40
67
Multiples
P/E Multiple
R36.17
R48.22
R60.28
63
P/S Multiple
R10.33
R13.78
R17.22
58
P/B Multiple
R18.56
R24.74
R30.93
55
EV/EBIT
R46.30
R61.55
R76.80
66
EV/EBITDA
R36.92
R49.04
R61.17
67
EV/Revenue
R10.20
R14.33
R18.46
54
Asset-Based
NCAV (Graham)
R4.12
R5.53
R8.25
54
Growth DCF
Growth DCF
R42.60
R76.14
R141.78
75
Rev-Margin DCF
R21.67
R35.51
R62.46
70
Economic Profit
Residual Income
R17.64
R30.32
R83.32
66
ROIC Compounder
R44.14
R60.96
R82.85
71
Growth Earnings
Growth-Adj P/E
R64.81
R92.59
R120.37
67
Quality Score breakdown
Overall quality
54/100
It rates the business: profits, how they develop, real cash, balance sheet, investing and share count.
Profitability
84
How much profit the company makes from its sales and capital
Quality Growth
100
Are margins and returns getting better?
Cashflow
79
Do the profits arrive as real cash?
Financial strength
84
Debt, balance sheet and risk of trouble
Investment
2
Does it invest with discipline instead of growing at any price?
Low Volatility
47
How calm the share price moves, does not count
Momentum
47
Price trend of the last 3 to 12 months, does not count
Near the 52-week high
44
Distance to the 52-week high, does not count
New shares
73
Buys back shares or issues new ones?
Revenue & earnings trend
Growth Quality ⓘGrowth is valuable only when reinvestment earns attractive returns (Aswath Damodaran): sustainable growth depends on return on capital, reinvestment and efficiency. Basis: total company revenue over the periods shown on the cards (3Y/5Y/all years), not per share, so a merger can show up as a growth jump; per-share earnings growth is in the value-creation card.
62/100
The company is growing, but growth may require heavy reinvestment or weak cash conversion.
Revenue growth 1 year
+114.1%
Revenue growth 3 years ⓘMeasures the company's TOTAL revenue from reported annual statements: compound average growth per year (CAGR) from the fiscal year 3, 5 or N years back to the most recent comparable fiscal year. Not per share: buybacks do not change this number, and a merger can appear as a growth jump. Per-share growth (which does include buybacks) is in the value-creation card.
+53.2%
Revenue growth 5 years ⓘMeasures the company's TOTAL revenue from reported annual statements: compound average growth per year (CAGR) from the fiscal year 3, 5 or N years back to the most recent comparable fiscal year. Not per share: buybacks do not change this number, and a merger can appear as a growth jump. Per-share growth (which does include buybacks) is in the value-creation card.
+25.7%
Start year 2021 (pandemic). Over 10 years: +17.8% a year
Revenue growth 12 years ⓘMeasures the company's TOTAL revenue from reported annual statements: compound average growth per year (CAGR) from the fiscal year 3, 5 or N years back to the most recent comparable fiscal year. Not per share: buybacks do not change this number, and a merger can appear as a growth jump. Per-share growth (which does include buybacks) is in the value-creation card.
+18.3%
’15
’16
’17
’18
’19
’20
’21
’22
’23
’24
’25
’26
What shareholders gained per year (last 5 years) (mathematically smoothed) ⓘWhat the business itself delivers per year: earnings growth per share plus the dividend yield. This is what you get IF the market keeps valuing the stock the same way: it contains no assumption about the market changing its mind. Computed per share, so buybacks count and a merger does not pass as growth. For a company that pays no dividend it is pure earnings growth per share. Period: earnings growth per share as CAGR over the last 5 reported fiscal years (annual statements), plus the current dividend yield. The start value is the median of the three years around the start, so a single crisis year (a pandemic or a write-down) does not distort the rate. Smoothed = median of all growth paths between the years of the window (trend line on the logarithm of earnings per share): a single extreme year cannot distort the rate. The reported figure stays in the tooltip.
+29.9%
Earnings growth per share plus dividend.
Earnings per share, growth per year+29.8%
Dividend (yield on the price)0.1%
Pace: 5 vs 10 years ⓘTwo data points, not a trend model: earnings growth per share over the last 5 fiscal years against the last 10. Labelled "steady" when both rates are within 3 percentage points of each other, otherwise picking up or flattening. Shown only when ten years of history exist.35.4% vs 29.8%, picking up
Profit margin 2021 to 2026 ⓘOperating margin then vs now, from reported annual statements. A falling margin after a boom year is the classic peak-earnings signal: the growth rate then leans on an inflated base.30% → 47%
2026 sits 325% above its own trend. The rate follows the median trend of the last 5 years, not that single year.
Pace: the 5-year rate starts in 2021 (pandemic)
Growth Forecast
A lot of optimism in the price
The price assumes less growth than the company has delivered so far and more than analysts expect.
What the price assumes ⓘThis turns our valuation around: instead of asking what the share is worth, it asks what growth the current price requires. It uses the cash the company keeps after all spending (free cash flow), the same discount rate as our models, five years of growth, then slowing evenly to 2 % a year by year ten. Compared with the analysts' sales forecasts extended to the same five years (at least three analysts, for context only, it does not enter the Fair Value): within 3 percentage points counts as "in line" (amber), below that little optimism (green), above that a lot of optimism (red).
+0.8%
Yearly growth needed for the next five years to justify today's price.
What forecasts expect ⓘAnalysts publish sales forecasts for the next two fiscal years. For the years after that, growth slows evenly to 2 % a year by year ten (2 % is the long-run rate our models use). Projected years are marked as such.
−15.5%
Yearly sales growth analysts expect, extended to five years.
After inflation (figures in USD, USA: IMF forecast 2.4% a year to 2030, 3.1% from 2016 to 2025) that is about −1.5% a year for the price and −17.5% for the forecasts.
Forecast 2027 (sales)−20.5%
Projected 2028 (sales)−18.0%
Projected 2029 (sales)−15.5%
Projected 2030 (sales)−13.0%
Projected 2031 (sales)−10.5%
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Peer GroupⓘHow this stock ranks against its industry: the green marker is this stock, the band is the typical 25–75% peer range, and the tick is the median.Gold · 213 stocks
Beats the industry median on 9/13 measures
Overall it ranks above its industry peers.
Valuation Multiplesvs Gold median · lower = cheaper
Context: sector, industry, market
- Is the Materials sector expensive or cheap?
- P/E, EV/EBITDA and margins by industry (reference tables)
Values & ESG
Does this company touch areas you may want to avoid? The classification is inferred from sector and industry.
None of the checked exposures detected
Similar stocks
10 more Gold stocks, each showing price versus our Fair Value estimate.
| Stock | Price | Fair Value | vs Fair Value | Compare |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Kinross Gold Corporation KGC | $23.34 | $51.30 | +120% | vs PAN |
| Zijin Mining Group 601899 | ¥30.22 | ¥44.45 | +47% | vs PAN |
| Pan American Silver Corp PAAS | $45.71 | $59.13 | +29% | vs PAN |
| Agnico Eagle Mines Limited AEM | $188.18 | $219.71 | +17% | vs PAN |
| Newmont Corporation NEM | $115.59 | $127.15 | +10% | vs PAN |
| Franco-Nevada Corporation FNV | $244.85 | $269.34 | +10% | vs PAN |
| Royal Gold, Inc RGLD | $236.91 | $260.60 | +10% | vs PAN |
| AngloGold Ashanti plc AU | $93.44 | $88.60 | −5% | vs PAN |
| Shandong Gold Mining Co 600547 | ¥26.54 | ¥23.61 | −11% | vs PAN |
| Wheaton Precious Metals Corp WPM | $138.11 | $87.78 | −36% | vs PAN |
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Frequently asked questions
Is Pan African Resources PLC (PAN) overvalued or undervalued?
As of Oct 16, 2026, our model estimates a fair value of R48.99 versus a price of R25.62, about +91% upside (undervalued).
What is the fair value of PAN?
Our model-based fair value for Pan African Resources PLC is R48.99 (as of Oct 16, 2026), built from audited fundamentals. The current price: R25.62.
What is the quality score of PAN?
Pan African Resources PLC has a Quality Score of 54/100. It measures business quality (profitability, growth, cash flow, balance-sheet strength, investment discipline, share issuance). Market factors such as price momentum and volatility do not enter the number; they are shown separately in the detail view.
What is the price target for Pan African Resources PLC (PAN)?
Our model-based price target is the fair value of R48.99 (as of Oct 16, 2026) from 26 valuation models. Cautious scenario R34.78, optimistic scenario R79.95. It is a calculation from audited fundamentals, not an analyst target.
What is the Pan African Resources PLC stock forecast for 2026?
Our models put fair value at R48.99, about +91% upside versus a price of R25.62 (undervalued). Cautious scenario R34.78, optimistic scenario R79.95. The calculation is refreshed regularly with new filings.
What is the revenue of Pan African Resources PLC (PAN)?
Pan African Resources PLC reported trailing-twelve-month revenue of about $1.2B (latest available figure, as of Oct 16, 2026).
Does Pan African Resources PLC pay a dividend?
Pan African Resources PLC currently shows a dividend yield of about 0.11% relative to its recent price (as of Oct 16, 2026).
What growth is priced into Pan African Resources PLC (PAN)?
For today's price to be fair in a discounted-cash-flow model, Pan African Resources PLC would have to grow free cash flow by +0.8 % per year for five years (discount rate 12.6 %, then slowing evenly to 2 % perpetual growth by year ten). Over the last 5 years revenue grew +25.7 % per year. As of Oct 16, 2026.
What discount rate (WACC) does the fair value of PAN use?
Our models discount Pan African Resources PLC at 12.6 %: a base by market capitalisation (mid), damped by beta 0.76, country premium for South Africa. The same rate applies in all 26 models.
What is a reverse DCF?
A reverse DCF turns the usual calculation around. Instead of deriving a value from assumptions, it takes today's price as given and asks: what free-cash-flow growth would a company have to deliver for exactly this price to be fair? The result is not a forecast but the expectation already priced in. For Pan African Resources PLC that is +0.8 % per year a year over ten years, using the same discount rate (12.6 %) and the same formula as our fair value.
How much growth has Pan African Resources PLC (PAN) delivered so far?
Over the past 5 years revenue at Pan African Resources PLC grew +25.7 % a year. The price currently implies +0.8 % per year free-cash-flow growth a year. Comparing the two shows how much confidence is in the price: if it demands more than has been delivered, the business has to accelerate for the maths to work.
How fast is the sector of Pan African Resources PLC (PAN) growing?
The median revenue growth in the sector is +9.2 % a year. That is the yardstick for the growth priced into Pan African Resources PLC (+0.8 % per year a year): it shows whether the expectation is within the usual range or beyond it.
What is the free cash flow yield of Pan African Resources PLC (PAN)?
The free-cash-flow yield on the price is 10.83 %: that much free cash flow Pan African Resources PLC produces per unit of market value. When it exceeds the discount rate of our models (12.6 %), the business already earns more than its cost of capital demands, and the price needs little additional growth.
What is the intrinsic value of Pan African Resources PLC (PAN)?
Intrinsic value and fair value mean the same thing: what the business is worth on its numbers, independent of the share price. For Pan African Resources PLC it is R48.99 per share (as of Oct 16, 2026), against a price of R25.62. It is the blended result of 26 valuation models (cash flow, earnings, asset, dividend).
Is Pan African Resources PLC stock overvalued or undervalued in 2026?
As of Oct 16, 2026, PAN trades below its calculated fair value: price R25.62, fair value R48.99, a gap of about +91% (undervalued). The calculation is refreshed with each new quarterly report, so the verdict can change during the year.
Is fair value the same as the market price of PAN?
No. The price is what the market pays today (R25.62); the fair value is what the company's own numbers justify (R48.99). For Pan African Resources PLC the two are R23.37 per share apart. That gap is exactly why we show both numbers side by side.
How much is Pan African Resources PLC worth?
The market values Pan African Resources PLC at about 51.9B ZAC (market capitalisation, as of Oct 16, 2026). Per share that is R25.62; our models calculate a fair value of R48.99 per share.
What do the bullish and bearish scenarios say about PAN?
Our models span a range for Pan African Resources PLC: cautious scenario R34.78, base R48.99, optimistic R79.95 per share (as of Oct 16, 2026, price R25.62). The range comes from different growth and margin assumptions, not from analyst opinions.
What is the P/E ratio of PAN?
Pan African Resources PLC trades at a price-to-earnings ratio of 8.6 (as of Oct 16, 2026). A P/E on its own says little: it compares the price with ONE year of profit, while our fair value of R48.99 is built from several models across several years. Other multiples: P/B 4.6, P/S 3.0, EV/EBITDA 5.7.
How solid is the balance sheet of Pan African Resources PLC (PAN)?
Balance-sheet figures for Pan African Resources PLC (as of Oct 16, 2026): return on equity 43.6%, debt of 0.19 per unit of equity. They feed the Quality Score of 54/100, which measures business quality independently of the share price.
How far is PAN from its 52-week high?
Pan African Resources PLC trades at R25.62, about 34% below its 52-week high of R38.81 and 38% above the low of R18.58 (as of Oct 15, 2026). Distance from the high says nothing about value: that is what the fair value of R48.99 is for.
Which stocks are comparable to Pan African Resources PLC?
From the same area (Basic Materials) we also value Newmont Corporation, Zijin Mining Group, Agnico Eagle Mines Limited, Wheaton Precious Metals Corp, among others. Each of them has its own fair-value calculation on this site using the same models, so the comparison is like for like.
Is Pan African Resources PLC stock attractive at the current price?
The data as of Oct 16, 2026: price R25.62, calculated fair value R48.99 (+91%), Quality Score 54/100, from 26 models. Whether that fits your horizon and risk tolerance is your call. We provide the calculation, not investment advice.
How is the fair value of PAN calculated?
We run Pan African Resources PLC through 26 models from four families: discounted cash flow, earnings models, asset and balance-sheet models, and dividend models. Every model gets the same audited fundamentals; the result is the weighted average of R48.99, with the spread shown as a cautious and an optimistic scenario.
Is it still worth investing in stocks now?
The global stock market currently sits 13.8 % above its aggregate fair value. Pan African Resources PLC currently trades 48 % below its own fair value, and the market average says nothing about that. An expensive market is no reason to stay out and no reason to buy everything at once: keep a broad savings plan running, buy single stocks only with money you can do without, and hold part of your money liquid while the market is high. The full picture including sectors is on is it worth investing now.
What is the share price of Pan African Resources PLC (PAN)?
The closing price on Oct 15, 2026 was R25.62. Our model-based fair value is R48.99, about +91% upside (undervalued). We carry closing prices from our data provider, not a live tick.
What should I pay attention to with Pan African Resources PLC right now?
The price is below even our cautious bear case (R34.78). The market is more pessimistic than our downside scenario. Solid quality (54/100) at a price below fair value, the discount is the argument here, not the business quality. A fairly wide model range (R34.78 to R79.95) leaves room in how you read the outcome.
Key figures of Pan African Resources PLC
How large is the market capitalisation of Pan African Resources PLC (PAN)?
The market capitalisation of Pan African Resources PLC is 51.9B ZAC. The stock-market value of the whole company: share price times number of shares. It is what the market asks for the entire business today.
What is the P/S ratio of Pan African Resources PLC (PAN)?
The price-to-sales ratio of Pan African Resources PLC is 2.66 (P/E × margin). Price to sales: market value relative to yearly revenue. Useful when profit is thin or distorted.
What are the earnings per share of Pan African Resources PLC (PAN)?
Earnings per share at Pan African Resources PLC are R2.98 (price ÷ EPS = P/E 8.6). Earnings per share over the last twelve months: total profit spread across every single share.
What is the dividend yield of Pan African Resources PLC (PAN)?
The dividend yield of Pan African Resources PLC is 0.1% (payout 0.9%). Yearly dividend relative to the share price. 3% pays 3 per 100 invested. Below: how much of profit is used for it.
What is the net margin of Pan African Resources PLC (PAN)?
The net margin of Pan African Resources PLC is 30.9% (fiscal year 2026). How much of every unit of revenue ends up as profit. 10% means 10 cents of profit per dollar of sales.
What is the return on equity of Pan African Resources PLC (PAN)?
The return on equity (ROE) of Pan African Resources PLC is 45.1% (last twelve months). Profit relative to shareholders' equity, how efficiently the company works with its owners' money.
What is the EBIT return on assets of Pan African Resources PLC (PAN)?
On an EBIT basis the return on assets of Pan African Resources PLC is 22.9% (avg 5y). Operating profit (EBIT) relative to everything the company owns, as a multi-year average. It describes the business model rather than one good or bad year.
What is the operating margin of Pan African Resources PLC (PAN)?
The operating margin of Pan African Resources PLC is 43.2% (last twelve months). Profit from the core business (before interest and taxes) relative to revenue.
How fast is revenue growing at Pan African Resources PLC (PAN)?
Revenue at Pan African Resources PLC is growing +90.9% versus a year earlier (3y avg +53.2%). How much revenue grew versus a year earlier (YoY). The 3-year average next to it puts the single year in context.
How fast are earnings growing at Pan African Resources PLC (PAN)?
Earnings per share at Pan African Resources PLC are growing +124% versus a year earlier. How much earnings per share grew versus a year earlier.
How much net debt does Pan African Resources PLC (PAN) carry?
The net debt of Pan African Resources PLC is $140M (fiscal year 2025, ≈ 0.4 yrs of FCF). Debt minus cash on hand. The note shows how many years of free cash flow could in theory pay it off.
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