PayPay Corporation American Depository Shares (PAYP) fair value: what the stock is really worth
As of Nov 10, 2026: fair value (intrinsic value) of PayPay Corporation American Depository Shares stock $44.77, price $14.99, upside +198.7%, quality 54 out of 100. Rating: strongly undervalued. Calculated from audited financials with 25 of our 26 valuation models and 37 quality factors, updated daily.
69 individual criteria per stock, every one traceableSee the method →
Price vs Fair Value
White line = price, green steps = our fair value per fiscal year. As of Nov 10, 2026.
How to read this chart
8‑month range $12.37 – $24.56 · fair‑value band $28.14 – $58.20 · the $14.99 price screens below the $44.77 fair value. As of Nov 10, 2026.
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PayPay Corporation, a financial technology company, provides a digital finance platform with services that inlclude easy-to-use payments and other financial services in Japan. The company operates through two segments, Payment and Financial Service.
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The Payment segment provides payment settlement and related services through its PayPay app; and payment credit services, such as revolving and installment payment options and cash advances.
The Financial service segment offers internet banking, securities intermediary, PayPay Point investment-related, and loan management services.
It also provides PayPay settlement, PayPay balance and PayPay credit payment, PayPay balance, PayPay credit, payments using linked services, payments using PayPay bank app, utility bill and tax payments, payment credit, revolving and installment payment option, cash advance, and acquiring services; and in financial services comprising internet banking, deposit accounts and remittance, lending, securities intermediary, foreign exchange transaction, digital securities, app-based investment, PayPay securities app, automated investing, CFD trading, PayPay point management, and loan management services through credit engine.
In addition, the company offers other value-added services for users and enterprises, such as insurance and marketing services that merchants have the option to subscribe. It serves users and merchants through PayPay brand names.
The company was incorporated in 2018 and is headquartered in Shinjuku, Japan.
Stock analysis
PayPay Corporation American Depository Shares (PAYP) currently trades at $14.99, while our model-based Fair Value estimate is $44.77, implying the stock looks roughly 67% undervalued today.
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Valuation
Bull case: the Growth DCF group reads highest at a median of $70.11 per share, and 18 of the 25 models we run sit above the $14.99 price.
Bear case: the Economic Profit group reads lowest at $10.64, and 7 of the 25 models stay below the price. Data coverage for this calculation is medium.
Scenario range: $28.14 (bear) to $58.20 (bull), the price of $14.99 sits below it. Bear and bull are the same models on cautious and optimistic assumptions, a range, not a price target.
Quality & growth
The Quality Score stands at 54/100 (solid quality), in the Technology sector.
Healthy Growth: Revenue growth appears healthy and is supported by profitability and cash-flow quality.
PayPay Corporation American Depository Shares reported revenue of ¥404B in FY2026 versus ¥197B in FY2023, a compound +27.0%/yr. Reported net income was ¥122B in FY2026.
Key figures
Market cap $10.2B Large · P/E ratio 23.4 · P/S ratio 7.08 · EPS (TTM) $0.6400 · Dividend yield 0.0% · Net margin 30.2% · Return on equity 18.8% · Return on assets (EBIT) 0.5% (4-year average).
Competitive moat
Our AI-assisted moat analysis scores the competitive advantage at 67 out of 100 (medium confidence).
What moves the price
The last reported earnings sit well below what analysts expect (earnings in transition, for example after write-downs or an earnings dip); whether the stock is cheap or expensive hinges on the expected recovery actually arriving. Read the fair value with that caveat.
For context, the median of 10 Technology peers we cover trades at −11% fair-value upside, at 199%, PAYP screens cheaper than that median.
Fair Value models
Bear$28.14Fair Value $44.77Bull$58.20
Price $14.99 · Upside +198.7%
Model ⓘEach model values the company its own way (discounted cash flow, earnings, assets, dividends). The fair value above starts from their evidence-weighted blend, not from a single model. In cyclical trough or peak years, after dilution or a stock split it is adjusted afterwards, so it can sit above or below the models. Based on fiscal year 2026 figures (about 7 months old). Earnings retained since then ($0.3945 per share) are deliberately not added.Bear ⓘBear = the cautious scenario: the same model computed with conservative anchors (lower growth, margins and valuation multiples). Together with Bull it frames a plausible valuation range, not a price target.BaseBull ⓘBull = the optimistic scenario: the same model computed with favourable anchors (higher growth, margins and valuation multiples). Together with Bear it frames a plausible valuation range, not a price target. If a model's bull case is above four times its base value, the table shows that limit with a > sign (like the overall Bull above): beyond it no assumption holds.Coverage ⓘCoverage = how well-backed THIS model's estimate is for this stock (0–100): how complete and reliable its input data are, and how well the model fits the company. The final Fair Value is an evidence-weighted blend, so better-evidenced models count more. Green ≥70, amber 50–69, grey below 50.
In the last 6 months, no officer or director bought or sold shares on the open market.
Plus 5 other filings such as grants, option exercises or tax withholding. They are not market purchases or sales.
Sales are often planned (taxes, diversification, 10b5-1 plans). Purchases with their own money are seen as the stronger sign. For information only: not part of the quality score or Fair Value.
Growth Quality ⓘGrowth is valuable only when reinvestment earns attractive returns (Aswath Damodaran): sustainable growth depends on return on capital, reinvestment and efficiency. Basis: total company revenue over the periods shown on the cards (3Y/5Y/all years), not per share, so a merger can show up as a growth jump; per-share earnings growth is in the value-creation card.100/100
Revenue growth appears healthy and is supported by profitability and cash-flow quality.
Revenue growth 1 year
+38.2%
Revenue growth 3 years ⓘMeasures the company's TOTAL revenue from reported annual statements: compound average growth per year (CAGR) from the fiscal year 3, 5 or N years back to the most recent comparable fiscal year. Not per share: buybacks do not change this number, and a merger can appear as a growth jump. Per-share growth (which does include buybacks) is in the value-creation card.
+27.0%
’23
’24
’25
’26
Profit margin (trend) ⓘOperating margin then vs now, from reported annual statements. A falling margin after a boom year is the classic peak-earnings signal: the growth rate then leans on an inflated base.
−10.4% (2023) → 21.0% (2026)
What shareholders gained per year ⓘWe only publish this rate when it is defensible. Reason: no profitable base year
not computed
Growth Forecast
Little optimism in the price
The price assumes less growth than the company has delivered so far and less than analysts expect.
What the price assumes ⓘThis turns our valuation around: instead of asking what the share is worth, it asks what growth the current price requires. It uses the cash the company keeps after all spending (free cash flow), the same discount rate as our models, five years of growth, then slowing evenly to 2 % a year by year ten. Compared with the analysts' sales forecasts extended to the same five years (at least three analysts, for context only, it does not enter the Fair Value): within 3 percentage points counts as "in line" (amber), below that little optimism (green), above that a lot of optimism (red).
−11.4%
The company could shrink this much every year for the next five years and today's price would still be justified.
What forecasts expect ⓘAnalysts publish sales forecasts for the next two fiscal years. For the years after that, growth slows evenly to 2 % a year by year ten (2 % is the long-run rate our models use). Projected years are marked as such.
+15.4%
Yearly sales growth analysts expect, extended to five years.
After inflation (figures in JPY, Japan: IMF forecast 2.1% a year to 2030, 1.3% from 2016 to 2025) that is about −13.2% a year for the price and +13.0% for the forecasts.
News mood ⓘNews mood, the average tone of recent news (59 articles), rated against how stocks are usually covered. 🚀 Hype = unusually upbeat · 🙂 Positive = above average · 😐 Neutral = typical · 🙁 Negative = below average · 😨 Very negative = unusually downbeat. It reflects the tone of coverage, not our valuation.Neutral
Recent news coverage is roughly neutral, about typical for how stocks are covered.
AI conclusion: Network effects and shared data let PayPay deepen payment users into credit services, yet high leverage constrains operational flexibility.
Main risk: Rivals such as Rakuten Pay, d払い and JR East's teppay might capture users through lower merchant fees, transit integrations or point campaigns, squeezing PayPay's ability to maintain or raise take rates on its QR payments platform.
Bull case: PayPay could deepen its ecosystem with credit, banking and data synergies to retain users and merchants despite rival offerings.
Bear case: Intensifying competition from named rivals or regulatory hurdles around its crypto partnership might limit user growth and compress margins on core payment services.
PayPay grows by pulling payment users deeper into credit and other services via network effects and shared data. Our models see the shares as undervalued on that runway, yet rivals could still slow its ability to raise take rates. Does the ecosystem lock-in deliver more lasting profit lift than competitive pressure takes away?
Compare PayPay Corporation American Depository Shares with another stock
Price, fair value, quality and upside side by side.
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Peer GroupⓘHow this stock ranks against its industry: the green marker is this stock, the band is the typical 25–75% peer range, and the tick is the median.Software - Infrastructure · 410 stocks
Beats the industry median on 8/15 measures
A mixed picture versus its industry peers.
Valuation
Quality Score54 · Above median
Fair Value upside+198.7% · Top 25%
Profitability
Return on equity (12 months)18.8% · Top 25%
Return on assets2.4% · Above median
Net margin (12 months)15.8% · Top 25%
Operating margin (12 months)28.1% · Top 25%
Growth and dividend
Revenue growth (quarter YoY)28.4% · Top 25%
Dividend yield (12 months)0.0% · Bottom 25%
Balance sheet
Debt / equity1.24× · Highest 25%
Valuation Multiplesvs Software - Infrastructure median · lower = cheaper
For bloggers, editors and developers: paste this into your site or blog (a “Custom HTML” block in WordPress), it shows the current fair value and links back here. Free, plain HTML, and welcome. Full data streams (CSV/JSON) at /developers.
Cite: Fair Value Calculator (2026). "PayPay Corporation American Depository Shares Fair Value". https://www.fairvalue-calculator.com/stock/PAYP
Frequently asked questions
Is PayPay Corporation American Depository Shares (PAYP) overvalued or undervalued?
As of Nov 10, 2026, our model estimates a fair value of $44.77 versus a price of $14.99, about +199% upside (undervalued).
What is the fair value of PAYP?
Our model-based fair value for PayPay Corporation American Depository Shares is $44.77 (as of Nov 10, 2026), built from audited fundamentals. The current price: $14.99.
What is the quality score of PAYP?
PayPay Corporation American Depository Shares has a Quality Score of 54/100. It measures business quality (profitability, growth, cash flow, balance-sheet strength, investment discipline, share issuance). Market factors such as price momentum and volatility do not enter the number; they are shown separately in the detail view.
What is the price target for PayPay Corporation American Depository Shares (PAYP)?
Our model-based price target is the fair value of $44.77 (as of Nov 10, 2026) from 25 valuation models. Cautious scenario $28.14, optimistic scenario $58.20. It is a calculation from audited fundamentals, not an analyst target.
What is the PayPay Corporation American Depository Shares stock forecast for 2026?
Our models put fair value at $44.77, about +199% upside versus a price of $14.99 (undervalued). Cautious scenario $28.14, optimistic scenario $58.20. The calculation is refreshed regularly with new filings.
What is the revenue of PayPay Corporation American Depository Shares (PAYP)?
PayPay Corporation American Depository Shares reported trailing-twelve-month revenue of about ¥428B (latest available figure, as of Nov 10, 2026).
Does PayPay Corporation American Depository Shares pay a dividend?
PayPay Corporation American Depository Shares currently shows a dividend yield of 0.02% relative to its recent price (as of Nov 10, 2026).
How much is the dividend of PayPay Corporation American Depository Shares (PAYP)?
PayPay Corporation American Depository Shares has a dividend yield of 0.0%.
What growth is priced into PayPay Corporation American Depository Shares (PAYP)?
For today's price to be fair in a discounted-cash-flow model, PayPay Corporation American Depository Shares would have to grow free cash flow by -11.4 % per year for five years (discount rate 9.7 %, then slowing evenly to 2 % perpetual growth by year ten). Over the last 3 years revenue grew +27.0 % per year. As of Nov 10, 2026.
What discount rate (WACC) does the fair value of PAYP use?
Our models discount PayPay Corporation American Depository Shares at 9.7 %: a base by market capitalisation (mid), country premium for USA. The same rate applies in all 26 models.
What is a reverse DCF?
A reverse DCF turns the usual calculation around. Instead of deriving a value from assumptions, it takes today's price as given and asks: what free-cash-flow growth would a company have to deliver for exactly this price to be fair? The result is not a forecast but the expectation already priced in. For PayPay Corporation American Depository Shares that is -11.4 % per year for five years, then slowing evenly to 2 % by year ten, using the same discount rate (9.7 %) and the same formula as our fair value.
How much growth has PayPay Corporation American Depository Shares (PAYP) delivered so far?
Over the past 3 years revenue at PayPay Corporation American Depository Shares grew +27.0 % a year. The price currently implies free-cash-flow growth of -11.4 % per year. Comparing the two shows how much confidence is in the price: if it demands more than has been delivered, the business has to accelerate for the maths to work.
How fast is the sector of PayPay Corporation American Depository Shares (PAYP) growing?
The median revenue growth in the sector is +15.6 % a year. That is the yardstick for the growth priced into PayPay Corporation American Depository Shares (-11.4 % per year): it shows whether the expectation is within the usual range or beyond it.
What is the free cash flow yield of PayPay Corporation American Depository Shares (PAYP)?
The free-cash-flow yield on the price is 17.90 %: that much free cash flow PayPay Corporation American Depository Shares produces per unit of market value. When it exceeds the discount rate of our models (9.7 %), the business already earns more than its cost of capital demands, and the price needs little additional growth.
What is the intrinsic value of PayPay Corporation American Depository Shares (PAYP)?
Intrinsic value and fair value mean the same thing: what the business is worth on its numbers, independent of the share price. For PayPay Corporation American Depository Shares it is $44.77 per share (as of Nov 10, 2026), against a price of $14.99. It is the blended result of 25 valuation models in 8 families (DCF Models, Earnings-Based, Dividend Discount, Multiples, Asset-Based, Growth DCF, Economic Profit, Growth Earnings).
Is PayPay Corporation American Depository Shares stock overvalued or undervalued in 2026?
As of Nov 10, 2026, PAYP trades below its calculated fair value: price $14.99, fair value $44.77, a gap of about +199% (undervalued). The calculation is refreshed with each new quarterly report, so the verdict can change during the year.
Is fair value the same as the market price of PAYP?
No. The price is what the market pays today ($14.99); the fair value is what the company's own numbers justify ($44.77). For PayPay Corporation American Depository Shares the two are $29.78 per share apart. That gap is exactly why we show both numbers side by side.
How much is PayPay Corporation American Depository Shares worth?
The market values PayPay Corporation American Depository Shares at about $10.2B (market capitalisation, as of Nov 10, 2026). Per share that is $14.99; our models calculate a fair value of $44.77 per share.
What do the bullish and bearish scenarios say about PAYP?
Our models span a range for PayPay Corporation American Depository Shares: cautious scenario $28.14, base $44.77, optimistic $58.20 per share (as of Nov 10, 2026, price $14.99). The range comes from different growth and margin assumptions, not from analyst opinions.
What is the P/E ratio of PAYP?
PayPay Corporation American Depository Shares trades at a price-to-earnings ratio of 23.4 (as of Nov 10, 2026). A P/E on its own says little: it compares the price with ONE year of profit, while our fair value of $44.77 is built from several models across several years. Other multiples: PEG 1.7, P/B 4.1, P/S 3.8, EV/EBITDA 15.2.
What is the PEG ratio of PAYP?
The PEG ratio of PayPay Corporation American Depository Shares is 1.70 (P/E divided by earnings growth, as of Nov 10, 2026). That is above 1, so the growth is already paid for in the price.
How solid is the balance sheet of PayPay Corporation American Depository Shares (PAYP)?
Balance-sheet figures for PayPay Corporation American Depository Shares (as of Nov 10, 2026): return on equity 18.8%, debt of 1.24 per unit of equity. They feed the Quality Score of 54/100, which measures business quality independently of the share price.
Which stocks are comparable to PayPay Corporation American Depository Shares?
From the same area (Technology) we also value Microsoft Corporation, Oracle Corporation, Palantir Technologies Inc, Palo Alto Networks, Inc, among others. Each of them has its own fair-value calculation on this site using the same models, so the comparison is like for like.
Is PayPay Corporation American Depository Shares stock attractive at the current price?
The data as of Nov 10, 2026: price $14.99, calculated fair value $44.77 (+199%), Quality Score 54/100, from 25 models. Whether that fits your horizon and risk tolerance is your call. We provide the calculation, not investment advice.
How is the fair value of PAYP calculated?
We run PayPay Corporation American Depository Shares through 25 models from 8 families: DCF Models, Earnings-Based, Dividend Discount, Multiples, Asset-Based, Growth DCF, Economic Profit, Growth Earnings. Every model gets the same audited fundamentals; the fair value of $44.77 builds on their evidence-weighted average, with the spread shown as a cautious and an optimistic scenario.
Is it still worth investing in stocks now?
The global stock market currently sits 15.1% above its aggregate fair value. PayPay Corporation American Depository Shares currently trades 67% below its own fair value, and the market average says nothing about that. An expensive market is no reason to stay out and no reason to buy everything at once: keep a broad savings plan running, buy single stocks only with money you can do without, and hold part of your money liquid while the market is high. The full picture including sectors is on is it worth investing now.
What is the share price of PayPay Corporation American Depository Shares (PAYP)?
The closing price on Nov 10, 2026 was $14.99. Our model-based fair value is $44.77, about +199% upside (undervalued). We carry closing prices from our data provider, not a live tick.
What should I pay attention to with PayPay Corporation American Depository Shares right now?
The price is below even our cautious bear case ($28.14). The market is more pessimistic than our downside scenario. Solid quality (54/100) at a price below fair value, the discount is the argument here, not the business quality. A fairly wide model range ($28.14 to $58.20) leaves room in how you read the outcome.
Key figures of PayPay Corporation American Depository Shares
How large is the market capitalisation of PayPay Corporation American Depository Shares (PAYP)?
The market capitalisation of PayPay Corporation American Depository Shares is $10.2B. The stock-market value of the whole company: share price times number of shares. It is what the market asks for the entire business today.
What is the P/S ratio of PayPay Corporation American Depository Shares (PAYP)?
The price-to-sales ratio of PayPay Corporation American Depository Shares is 7.08 (P/E × margin). Price to sales: market value relative to yearly revenue. Useful when profit is thin or distorted.
What are the earnings per share of PayPay Corporation American Depository Shares (PAYP)?
Earnings per share at PayPay Corporation American Depository Shares are $0.6400 (price ÷ EPS = P/E 23.4). Earnings per share over the last twelve months: total profit spread across every single share.
What is the dividend yield of PayPay Corporation American Depository Shares (PAYP)?
The dividend yield of PayPay Corporation American Depository Shares is 0.0% (payout 0.5%). Yearly dividend relative to the share price. 3% pays 3 per 100 invested. Below: how much of profit is used for it.
What is the net margin of PayPay Corporation American Depository Shares (PAYP)?
The net margin of PayPay Corporation American Depository Shares is 30.2% (fiscal year 2026). How much of every unit of revenue ends up as profit. 10% means 10 cents of profit per dollar of sales.
What is the return on equity of PayPay Corporation American Depository Shares (PAYP)?
The return on equity (ROE) of PayPay Corporation American Depository Shares is 18.8% (last twelve months). Profit relative to shareholders' equity, how efficiently the company works with its owners' money.
What is the EBIT return on assets of PayPay Corporation American Depository Shares (PAYP)?
On an EBIT basis the return on assets of PayPay Corporation American Depository Shares is 0.5% (avg 4y). Operating profit (EBIT) relative to everything the company owns, as a multi-year average. It describes the business model rather than one good or bad year.
What is the operating margin of PayPay Corporation American Depository Shares (PAYP)?
The operating margin of PayPay Corporation American Depository Shares is 28.1% (last twelve months). Profit from the core business (before interest and taxes) relative to revenue.
How fast is revenue growing at PayPay Corporation American Depository Shares (PAYP)?
Revenue at PayPay Corporation American Depository Shares is growing +28.4% versus a year earlier (3y avg +27.0%). How much revenue grew versus a year earlier (YoY). The 3-year average next to it puts the single year in context.
How fast are earnings growing at PayPay Corporation American Depository Shares (PAYP)?
Earnings per share at PayPay Corporation American Depository Shares are growing −77.7% versus a year earlier. How much earnings per share grew versus a year earlier.
How much net debt does PayPay Corporation American Depository Shares (PAYP) carry?
The net debt of PayPay Corporation American Depository Shares is ¥212B (fiscal year 2026, ≈ 0.7 yrs of FCF). Debt minus cash on hand. The note shows how many years of free cash flow could in theory pay it off.
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Nov 10, 2026