Permian Basin Royalty Trust (PBT) fair value: what the stock is really worth
As of Sep 23, 2026: fair value of Permian Basin Royalty Trust $4.00, price $33.12, upside -87.9%, quality 59 out of 100. Calculated from audited financials with 26 valuation models and 37 quality factors, updated daily.
Structural break:
The valuation model sees a lasting decline in earnings power for this stock, the confidence band is broken. Treat the target with caution.
Stretched ValuationStrong overvaluation with only moderate quality.
!Fair value $4.00 · Strongly overvalued (−88%)
!Quality 59/100
!Weak Growth(revenue 5y +6.0 %/yr)
✓Highly profitable · 88.6% net margin (TTM)
!negative free cash flow
·0.94% dividend yield
✓Ranks above peers(6/10)
✓Wide moat83/100
!Insider activity40/100
!Evidence only low, so the estimate is less certain
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Price vs Fair Value
White line = price, green steps = our fair value per fiscal year, dashed = 300-day average. As of Sep 23, 2026.
How to read this chart
60‑month range $3.84 – $36.11 · fair‑value band $2.47 – $5.37 · the $33.12 price screens above the $4.00 fair value. Dashed = 300-day average. As of Sep 23, 2026.
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Permian Basin Royalty Trust holds royalty interests in various oil and gas properties in the United States. The company holds a 75% net overriding royalty interest in the Waddell Ranch properties located in Crane County, Texas, as well as a 95% net overriding royalty interest in the Texas Royalty properties located in 33 counties across Texas.
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Permian Basin Royalty Trust holds royalty interests in various oil and gas properties in the United States. The company holds a 75% net overriding royalty interest in the Waddell Ranch properties located in Crane County, Texas, as well as a 95% net overriding royalty interest in the Texas Royalty properties located in 33 counties across Texas. Its Texas Royalty properties comprise approximately 125 separate royalty interests containing approximately 51,000 net producing acres. The company was founded in 1980 and is based in Dallas, Texas.
Stock analysis
Permian Basin Royalty Trust (PBT) currently trades at $33.12, while our model-based Fair Value estimate is $4.00, implying the stock looks roughly 727.8% overvalued today.
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Valuation
Bull case: the Earnings-Based group reads highest at a median of $4.59 per share, and 4 of the 13 models we run sit above the $33.12 price.
Bear case: the Dividend Discount group reads lowest at $3.26, and 9 of the 13 models stay below the price. Evidence for this calculation is low.
Scenario range: $2.47 (bear) to $5.37 (bull), the price of $33.12 sits above it. Bear and bull are the same models on cautious and optimistic assumptions, a range, not a price target.
Quality & growth
The Quality Score stands at 59/100 (solid quality), in the Energy sector.
Weak Growth: Revenue growth is inconsistent: the periods point in different directions, so there is no trend to rely on.
Permian Basin Royalty Trust reported revenue of $16.1M in FY2025 versus $11.8M in FY2021, a compound +8.1%/yr. Reported net income was $14.3M in FY2025, compounding +7.5%/yr from FY2021.
Key figures
Market cap $1.5B · P/E ratio 106.8 · P/S ratio 94.7 · EPS (TTM) $0.3100 · Dividend yield 0.9% · Net margin 88.7% · Return on equity 90.4% · Return on assets (EBIT) 736%.
Competitive moat
Our AI-assisted moat analysis scores the competitive advantage at 32 out of 100 (low confidence).
What moves the price
The share trades about 8% below its 52-week high and 102% above its 52-week low, currently above its 200-day average.
For context, the median of 10 Energy peers we cover trades at −11% fair-value upside, at −88%, PBT screens richer than that median.
Fair Value models
The price assumes far more growth than our models allow for, so the models scatter widely ($0.0100 to $39.87). Read the Fair Value as a cautious anchor, not a price target; the Growth Forecast section shows what the price assumes.
Bear $2.47Fair Value $4.00Bull $5.37
Model ⓘEach model values the company its own way (discounted cash flow, earnings, assets, dividends). The fair value above is their evidence-weighted blend, not the output of a single model.Bear ⓘBear = the cautious scenario: the same model computed with conservative anchors (lower growth, margins and valuation multiples). Together with Bull it frames a plausible valuation range, not a price target.BaseBull ⓘBull = the optimistic scenario: the same model computed with favourable anchors (higher growth, margins and valuation multiples). Together with Bear it frames a plausible valuation range, not a price target.Evidence ⓘEvidence = how well-backed THIS model's estimate is for this stock (0–100): how complete and reliable its input data are, and how well the model fits the company. The final Fair Value is an evidence-weighted blend, so better-evidenced models count more. Green ≥70, amber 50–69, grey below 50.
Growth Quality ⓘGrowth is valuable only when reinvestment earns attractive returns (Aswath Damodaran): sustainable growth depends on return on capital, reinvestment and efficiency. Basis: total company revenue over the periods shown on the cards (3Y/5Y/all years), not per share, so a merger can show up as a growth jump; per-share earnings growth is in the value-creation card.40/100
Revenue growth is inconsistent: the periods point in different directions, so there is no trend to rely on.
Revenue growth 1 year
−40.5%
Revenue growth 3 years ⓘMeasures the company's TOTAL revenue from reported annual statements: compound average growth per year (CAGR) from the fiscal year 3, 5 or N years back to the most recent comparable fiscal year. Not per share: buybacks do not change this number, and a merger can appear as a growth jump. Per-share growth (which does include buybacks) is in the value-creation card.
−33.3%
Revenue growth 5 years ⓘMeasures the company's TOTAL revenue from reported annual statements: compound average growth per year (CAGR) from the fiscal year 3, 5 or N years back to the most recent comparable fiscal year. Not per share: buybacks do not change this number, and a merger can appear as a growth jump. Per-share growth (which does include buybacks) is in the value-creation card.
+6.0%
Start year 2020 (pandemic). Over 10 years: −1.0% a year
Revenue growth 36 years ⓘMeasures the company's TOTAL revenue from reported annual statements: compound average growth per year (CAGR) from the fiscal year 3, 5 or N years back to the most recent comparable fiscal year. Not per share: buybacks do not change this number, and a merger can appear as a growth jump. Per-share growth (which does include buybacks) is in the value-creation card.
−0.9%
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What shareholders gained per year (last 5 years) ⓘWhat the business itself delivers per year: earnings growth per share plus the dividend yield. This is what you get IF the market keeps valuing the stock the same way: it contains no assumption about the market changing its mind. Computed per share, so buybacks count and a merger does not pass as growth. For a company that pays no dividend it is pure earnings growth per share. Period: earnings growth per share as CAGR over the last 5 reported fiscal years (annual statements), plus the current dividend yield. The start value is the median of the three years around the start, so a single crisis year (a pandemic or a write-down) does not distort the rate.
+6.4%
Earnings growth per share plus dividend.
Earnings per share, growth per year+5.5%
Dividend (yield on the price)0.9%
Pace: 5 vs 10 years ⓘTwo data points, not a trend model: earnings growth per share over the last 5 fiscal years against the last 10. Labelled "steady" when both rates are within 3 percentage points of each other, otherwise picking up or flattening. Shown only when ten years of history exist.6% vs −3%, picking up
Profit margin 2020 to 2025 ⓘOperating margin then vs now, from reported annual statements. A falling margin after a boom year is the classic peak-earnings signal: the growth rate then leans on an inflated base.91% → 89%
Start year 2020 (pandemic)
⚠ Revenue per share shrinking 4.2%/yr over ~10Y (margins intact) ⓘStructural-decline marker: revenue PER SHARE has fallen over the last decade (robust median trend, not a single year). Backtested across 2005 to 2017, such businesses trailed the market by about 2.5 percentage points per year. Display only: it does not change the fair value or the quality score.
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Peer GroupⓘHow this stock ranks against its industry: the green marker is this stock, the band is the typical 25–75% peer range, and the tick is the median.Oil & Gas Midstream · 86 stocks
Beats the industry median on 6/10 measures
Overall it ranks above its industry peers.
Valuation
Quality Score59 · Top 25%
Fair Value upside−88% · Bottom 25%
Profitability
Return on equity (TTM)90% · Top 25%
Net margin (TTM)89% · Top 25%
Operating margin (TTM)85% · Top 25%
Growth and dividend
Revenue growth16% · Above median
Dividend yield (TTM)0.9% · Bottom 25%
Valuation Multiplesvs Oil & Gas Midstream median · lower = cheaper
P/E (TTM)106.8× · Priciest 25%
P/S (TTM)92.85× · Priciest 25%
PEG1.12× · Cheapest 25%
Strength profile in five axes (Snowflake)
This stockSector peers
VALUE (fair-value potential)0· sector 24
FUTURE (revenue growth)81· sector 57
PAST (return on equity)100· sector 45
HEALTH (low debt)0· sector 54
DIVIDEND (yield)19· sector 81
VALUE 0: the price sits above our fair-value range.
For bloggers, editors and developers: paste this into your site or blog (a “Custom HTML” block in WordPress), it shows the current fair value and links back here. Free, plain HTML, and welcome. Full data streams (CSV/JSON) at /developers.
Is Permian Basin Royalty Trust (PBT) overvalued or undervalued?
As of Sep 23, 2026, our model estimates a fair value of $4.00 versus a price of $33.12, about −88% upside (overvalued).
What is the fair value of PBT?
Our model-based fair value for Permian Basin Royalty Trust is $4.00 (as of Sep 23, 2026), built from audited fundamentals. The current price: $33.12.
What is the quality score of PBT?
Permian Basin Royalty Trust has a Quality Score of 59/100. It measures business quality (profitability, growth, cash flow, balance-sheet strength, investment discipline, share issuance). Market factors such as price momentum and volatility do not enter the number; they are shown separately in the detail view.
What is the price target for Permian Basin Royalty Trust (PBT)?
Our model-based price target is the fair value of $4.00 (as of Sep 23, 2026) from 13 valuation models. Cautious scenario $2.47, optimistic scenario $5.37. It is a calculation from audited fundamentals, not an analyst target.
What is the Permian Basin Royalty Trust stock forecast for 2026?
Our models put fair value at $4.00, about −88% upside versus a price of $33.12 (overvalued). Cautious scenario $2.47, optimistic scenario $5.37. The calculation is refreshed regularly with new filings.
What is the revenue of Permian Basin Royalty Trust (PBT)?
Permian Basin Royalty Trust reported trailing-twelve-month revenue of about $16.6M (latest available figure, as of Sep 23, 2026).
Does Permian Basin Royalty Trust pay a dividend?
Permian Basin Royalty Trust currently shows a dividend yield of about 0.94% relative to its recent price (as of Sep 23, 2026).
What is the intrinsic value of Permian Basin Royalty Trust (PBT)?
Intrinsic value and fair value mean the same thing: what the business is worth on its numbers, independent of the share price. For Permian Basin Royalty Trust it is $4.00 per share (as of Sep 23, 2026), against a price of $33.12. It is the blended result of 13 valuation models (cash flow, earnings, asset, dividend).
Is Permian Basin Royalty Trust stock overvalued or undervalued in 2026?
As of Sep 23, 2026, PBT trades above its calculated fair value: price $33.12, fair value $4.00, a gap of about −88% (overvalued). The calculation is refreshed with each new quarterly report, so the verdict can change during the year.
Is fair value the same as the market price of PBT?
No. The price is what the market pays today ($33.12); the fair value is what the company's own numbers justify ($4.00). For Permian Basin Royalty Trust the two are $29.12 per share apart. That gap is exactly why we show both numbers side by side.
How much is Permian Basin Royalty Trust worth?
The market values Permian Basin Royalty Trust at about $1.5B (market capitalisation, as of Sep 23, 2026). Per share that is $33.12; our models calculate a fair value of $4.00 per share.
What do the bullish and bearish scenarios say about PBT?
Our models span a range for Permian Basin Royalty Trust: cautious scenario $2.47, base $4.00, optimistic $5.37 per share (as of Sep 23, 2026, price $33.12). The range comes from different growth and margin assumptions, not from analyst opinions.
What is the P/E ratio of PBT?
Permian Basin Royalty Trust trades at a price-to-earnings ratio of 106.8 (as of Sep 23, 2026). A P/E on its own says little: it compares the price with ONE year of profit, while our fair value of $4.00 is built from several models across several years. Other multiples: PEG 1.1, P/S 92.9.
What is the PEG ratio of PBT?
The PEG ratio of Permian Basin Royalty Trust is 1.12 (P/E divided by earnings growth, as of Sep 23, 2026). That is above 1, so the growth is already paid for in the price.
How solid is the balance sheet of Permian Basin Royalty Trust (PBT)?
Balance-sheet figures for Permian Basin Royalty Trust (as of Sep 23, 2026): return on equity 90.4%. They feed the Quality Score of 59/100, which measures business quality independently of the share price.
How far is PBT from its 52-week high?
Permian Basin Royalty Trust trades at $33.12, about 8% below its 52-week high of $36.11 and 102% above the low of $16.42 (as of Sep 23, 2026). Distance from the high says nothing about value: that is what the fair value of $4.00 is for.
Which stocks are comparable to Permian Basin Royalty Trust?
From the same area (Energy) we also value Enbridge Inc, The Williams Companies, Inc, Enterprise Products Partners L.P., Kinder Morgan, Inc, among others. Each of them has its own fair-value calculation on this site using the same models, so the comparison is like for like.
Is Permian Basin Royalty Trust stock attractive at the current price?
The data as of Sep 23, 2026: price $33.12, calculated fair value $4.00 (−88%), Quality Score 59/100, from 13 models. Whether that fits your horizon and risk tolerance is your call. We provide the calculation, not investment advice.
How is the fair value of PBT calculated?
We run Permian Basin Royalty Trust through 13 models from four families: discounted cash flow, earnings models, asset and balance-sheet models, and dividend models. Every model gets the same audited fundamentals; the result is the weighted average of $4.00, with the spread shown as a cautious and an optimistic scenario.
Is it still worth investing in stocks now?
The global stock market currently sits 14.1 % above its aggregate fair value. Permian Basin Royalty Trust itself currently trades above fair value. An expensive market is no reason to stay out and no reason to buy everything at once: keep a broad savings plan running, buy single stocks only with money you can do without, and hold part of your money liquid while the market is high. The full picture including sectors is on is it worth investing now.
What is the share price of Permian Basin Royalty Trust (PBT)?
The closing price on Sep 23, 2026 was $33.12. Our model-based fair value is $4.00, about −88% upside (overvalued). We carry closing prices from our data provider, not a live tick.
What should I pay attention to with Permian Basin Royalty Trust right now?
The price sits above even our optimistic bull case ($5.37). The favourable scenario is already priced in. The large gap to fair value rests on thin data (low evidence): fewer applicable models and a shorter history. Read it with extra caution. Solid but not exceptional quality (59/100) and above fair value, neither a clear bargain nor a standout compounder. A fairly wide model range ($2.47 to $5.37) leaves room in how you read the outcome.
Where does the earnings growth of Permian Basin Royalty Trust (PBT) come from?
Earnings per share at Permian Basin Royalty Trust grew −4.7 % a year from 2012 to 2023. Broken into its drivers: revenue per share −4.6 %, EBIT margin −0.1 %, tax rate +0.0 %, residual (interest, one-offs) +0.0 %. The four rates multiply to the earnings growth rate, they do not add up. Start and end are three-year averages so a single exceptional year does not distort the result.
Key figures of Permian Basin Royalty Trust
How large is the market capitalisation of Permian Basin Royalty Trust (PBT)?
The market capitalisation of Permian Basin Royalty Trust is $1.5B. The stock-market value of the whole company: share price times number of shares. It is what the market asks for the entire business today.
What is the P/S ratio of Permian Basin Royalty Trust (PBT)?
The price-to-sales ratio of Permian Basin Royalty Trust is 94.7 (P/E × margin). Price to sales: market value relative to yearly revenue. Useful when profit is thin or distorted.
What are the earnings per share of Permian Basin Royalty Trust (PBT)?
Earnings per share at Permian Basin Royalty Trust are $0.3100 (price ÷ EPS = P/E 106.8). Earnings per share over the last twelve months: total profit spread across every single share.
What is the dividend yield of Permian Basin Royalty Trust (PBT)?
The dividend yield of Permian Basin Royalty Trust is 0.9% (payout 101%). Yearly dividend relative to the share price. 3% pays 3 per 100 invested. Below: how much of profit is used for it.
What is the net margin of Permian Basin Royalty Trust (PBT)?
The net margin of Permian Basin Royalty Trust is 88.7% (fiscal year 2025). How much of every unit of revenue ends up as profit. 10% means 10 cents of profit per dollar of sales.
What is the return on equity of Permian Basin Royalty Trust (PBT)?
The return on equity (ROE) of Permian Basin Royalty Trust is 90.4% (last twelve months). Profit relative to shareholders' equity, how efficiently the company works with its owners' money.
What is the EBIT return on assets of Permian Basin Royalty Trust (PBT)?
On an EBIT basis the return on assets of Permian Basin Royalty Trust is 736% (avg 5y). Operating profit (EBIT) relative to everything the company owns, as a multi-year average. It describes the business model rather than one good or bad year.
What is the operating margin of Permian Basin Royalty Trust (PBT)?
The operating margin of Permian Basin Royalty Trust is 84.8% (last twelve months). Profit from the core business (before interest and taxes) relative to revenue.
How fast is revenue growing at Permian Basin Royalty Trust (PBT)?
Revenue at Permian Basin Royalty Trust is growing +16.2% versus a year earlier (3y avg −33.3%). How much revenue grew versus a year earlier (YoY). The 3-year average next to it puts the single year in context.
How fast are earnings growing at Permian Basin Royalty Trust (PBT)?
Earnings per share at Permian Basin Royalty Trust are growing +16.6% versus a year earlier. How much earnings per share grew versus a year earlier.
How much free cash flow does Permian Basin Royalty Trust (PBT) generate?
The free cash flow of Permian Basin Royalty Trust is −$58.0M (fiscal year 2023). The cash truly left after running and investing in the business, this is what pays dividends and buybacks.
How much net cash does Permian Basin Royalty Trust (PBT) hold?
Permian Basin Royalty Trust holds more cash than debt, $1.7B net (fiscal year 2025). The company holds more cash than debt, a safety cushion.
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Thin data
Sep 23, 2026