Vaxcyte Inc (PCVX) fair value: what the stock is really worth
As of Oct 2, 2026: fair value of Vaxcyte Inc $8.51, price $56.48, upside -84.9%, quality 18 out of 100. Calculated from audited financials with 26 valuation models and 37 quality factors, updated daily.
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Price vs Fair Value
White line = price, green steps = our fair value per fiscal year, dashed = 300-day average. As of Sep 28, 2026.
How to read this chart
60‑month range $17.46 – $117.93 · fair‑value band $5.62 – $10.64 · the $56.48 price screens above the $8.51 fair value. Dashed = 300-day average. As of Sep 28, 2026.
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Vaxcyte, Inc., a clinical-stage vaccine innovation company, develops conjugate and novel protein vaccines to prevent or treat bacterial infectious diseases. Its lead vaccine candidate is VAX-24, a 24-valent carrier-sparing investigational pneumococcal conjugate vaccine (PCV) for the prevention of invasive pneumococcal disease (IPD) in infants.
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Vaxcyte, Inc., a clinical-stage vaccine innovation company, develops conjugate and novel protein vaccines to prevent or treat bacterial infectious diseases. Its lead vaccine candidate is VAX-24, a 24-valent carrier-sparing investigational pneumococcal conjugate vaccine (PCV) for the prevention of invasive pneumococcal disease (IPD) in infants. The company also develops VAX-31, a 31-valent, carrier-sparing investigational PCV for the prevention of IPD in adults and children; VAX-A1, a novel conjugate vaccine candidate to prevent disease caused by Group A Streptococcus; VAX-PG, a novel protein vaccine candidate targeting the keystone pathogen responsible for periodontitis; VAX-GI, a novel preclinical vaccine candidate for the treatment of dysentery and shigellosis, which is caused by Shigella bacteria; and VAX-XL, a third-generation pneumococcal conjugate vaccine. The company was formerly known as SutroVax, Inc. and changed its name to Vaxcyte, Inc. in May 2020. Vaxcyte, Inc. was incorporated in 2013 and is headquartered in San Carlos, California.
Stock analysis
Vaxcyte Inc (PCVX) currently trades at $56.48, while our model-based Fair Value estimate is $8.51, 84.9% below the price, so the stock looks overvalued today.
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Valuation
How firm this estimate is: it rests on 1 models at a data quality of 96/100, which puts the evidence level at low.
Scenario range: $5.62 (bear) to $10.64 (bull), the price of $56.48 sits above it. Bear and bull are the same models on cautious and optimistic assumptions, a range, not a price target.
Quality & growth
The Quality Score stands at 18/100 (below-average quality), in the Healthcare sector.
Vaxcyte Inc reported revenue of $0 in FY2025 versus $0 in FY2021. Reported net income was −$767M in FY2025.
Key figures
Market cap $8.2B · EPS (TTM) $−7.63 · Return on equity −36.5% · Return on assets (EBIT) −27.0% · Free cash flow −$669M · Net debt $54.9M.
Competitive moat
Our AI-assisted moat analysis scores the competitive advantage at 42 out of 100 (low confidence).
What moves the price
The share trades about 11% below its 52-week high and 41% above its 52-week low, currently above its 200-day average.
For context, the median of 10 Healthcare peers we cover trades at 10% fair-value upside, at −85%, PCVX screens richer than that median.
Fair Value models
Bear $5.62Fair Value $8.51Bull $10.64
Model ⓘEach model values the company its own way (discounted cash flow, earnings, assets, dividends). The fair value above is their evidence-weighted blend, not the output of a single model.Bear ⓘBear = the cautious scenario: the same model computed with conservative anchors (lower growth, margins and valuation multiples). Together with Bull it frames a plausible valuation range, not a price target.BaseBull ⓘBull = the optimistic scenario: the same model computed with favourable anchors (higher growth, margins and valuation multiples). Together with Bear it frames a plausible valuation range, not a price target. If a model's bull case is above four times its base value, the table shows that limit with a > sign (like the overall Bull above): beyond it no assumption holds.Evidence ⓘEvidence = how well-backed THIS model's estimate is for this stock (0–100): how complete and reliable its input data are, and how well the model fits the company. The final Fair Value is an evidence-weighted blend, so better-evidenced models count more. Green ≥70, amber 50–69, grey below 50.
News mood ⓘNews mood, the average tone of recent news (87 articles), rated against how stocks are usually covered. 🚀 Hype = unusually upbeat · 🙂 Positive = above average · 😐 Neutral = typical · 🙁 Negative = below average · 😨 Very negative = unusually downbeat. It reflects the tone of coverage, not our valuation.Positive
Recent news coverage is more positive than average.
Price, fair value, quality and upside side by side.
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Peer GroupⓘHow this stock ranks against its industry: the green marker is this stock, the band is the typical 25–75% peer range, and the tick is the median.Biotechnology · 629 stocks
Beats the industry median on 2/6 measures
Overall it trails its industry peers.
Valuation
Quality Score26 · Bottom 25%
Fair Value upside−84.8% · Bottom 25%
Profitability
Return on assets−22.6% · Below median
Operating margin (TTM)0.0% · Above median
Growth and dividend
Revenue growth0.0% · Above median
Valuation Multiplesvs Biotechnology median · lower = cheaper
P/B3.02× · Pricier than median
Strength profile in five axes (Snowflake)
This stockSector peers
VALUE (fair-value potential)0· sector 0
FUTURE (revenue growth)0· sector 0
PAST (return on equity)0· sector 0
HEALTH (low debt)100· sector 97
DIVIDEND (yield)0· sector 22
VALUE 0: the price sits above our fair-value range.
For bloggers, editors and developers: paste this into your site or blog (a “Custom HTML” block in WordPress), it shows the current fair value and links back here. Free, plain HTML, and welcome. Full data streams (CSV/JSON) at /developers.
Cite: Fair Value Calculator (2026). "Vaxcyte Inc Fair Value". https://www.fairvalue-calculator.com/stock/PCVX
Frequently asked questions
Is Vaxcyte Inc (PCVX) overvalued or undervalued?
As of Sep 28, 2026, our model estimates a fair value of $8.51 versus a price of $56.48, about −85% upside (overvalued).
What is the fair value of PCVX?
Our model-based fair value for Vaxcyte Inc is $8.51 (as of Sep 28, 2026), built from audited fundamentals. The current price: $56.48.
What is the quality score of PCVX?
Vaxcyte Inc has a Quality Score of 18/100. It measures business quality (profitability, growth, cash flow, balance-sheet strength, investment discipline, share issuance). Market factors such as price momentum and volatility do not enter the number; they are shown separately in the detail view.
What is the price target for Vaxcyte Inc (PCVX)?
Our model-based price target is the fair value of $8.51 (as of Sep 28, 2026) from 1 valuation models. Cautious scenario $5.62, optimistic scenario $10.64. It is a calculation from audited fundamentals, not an analyst target.
What is the Vaxcyte Inc stock forecast for 2026?
Our models put fair value at $8.51, about −85% upside versus a price of $56.48 (overvalued). Cautious scenario $5.62, optimistic scenario $10.64. The calculation is refreshed regularly with new filings.
What is the intrinsic value of Vaxcyte Inc (PCVX)?
Intrinsic value and fair value mean the same thing: what the business is worth on its numbers, independent of the share price. For Vaxcyte Inc it is $8.51 per share (as of Sep 28, 2026), against a price of $56.48. It is the blended result of 1 valuation models (cash flow, earnings, asset, dividend).
Is Vaxcyte Inc stock overvalued or undervalued in 2026?
As of Sep 28, 2026, PCVX trades above its calculated fair value: price $56.48, fair value $8.51, a gap of about −85% (overvalued). The calculation is refreshed with each new quarterly report, so the verdict can change during the year.
Is fair value the same as the market price of PCVX?
No. The price is what the market pays today ($56.48); the fair value is what the company's own numbers justify ($8.51). For Vaxcyte Inc the two are $47.97 per share apart. That gap is exactly why we show both numbers side by side.
How much is Vaxcyte Inc worth?
The market values Vaxcyte Inc at about $8.2B (market capitalisation, as of Sep 28, 2026). Per share that is $56.48; our models calculate a fair value of $8.51 per share.
What do the bullish and bearish scenarios say about PCVX?
Our models span a range for Vaxcyte Inc: cautious scenario $5.62, base $8.51, optimistic $10.64 per share (as of Sep 28, 2026, price $56.48). The range comes from different growth and margin assumptions, not from analyst opinions.
How solid is the balance sheet of Vaxcyte Inc (PCVX)?
Balance-sheet figures for Vaxcyte Inc (as of Sep 28, 2026): return on equity −36.5%. They feed the Quality Score of 18/100, which measures business quality independently of the share price.
How far is PCVX from its 52-week high?
Vaxcyte Inc trades at $56.48, about 11% below its 52-week high of $63.30 and 41% above the low of $40.13 (as of Oct 2, 2026). Distance from the high says nothing about value: that is what the fair value of $8.51 is for.
Which stocks are comparable to Vaxcyte Inc?
From the same area (Healthcare) we also value Vertex Pharmaceuticals Incorporated, Regeneron Pharmaceuticals, Inc, argenx SE, CSL Limited, among others. Each of them has its own fair-value calculation on this site using the same models, so the comparison is like for like.
Is Vaxcyte Inc stock attractive at the current price?
The data as of Sep 28, 2026: price $56.48, calculated fair value $8.51 (−85%), Quality Score 18/100, from 1 models. Whether that fits your horizon and risk tolerance is your call. We provide the calculation, not investment advice.
How is the fair value of PCVX calculated?
We run Vaxcyte Inc through 1 models from four families: discounted cash flow, earnings models, asset and balance-sheet models, and dividend models. Every model gets the same audited fundamentals; the result is the weighted average of $8.51, with the spread shown as a cautious and an optimistic scenario.
Is it still worth investing in stocks now?
The global stock market currently sits 14.5 % above its aggregate fair value. Vaxcyte Inc itself currently trades above fair value. An expensive market is no reason to stay out and no reason to buy everything at once: keep a broad savings plan running, buy single stocks only with money you can do without, and hold part of your money liquid while the market is high. The full picture including sectors is on is it worth investing now.
What is the share price of Vaxcyte Inc (PCVX)?
The closing price on Oct 2, 2026 was $56.48. Our model-based fair value is $8.51, about −85% upside (overvalued). We carry closing prices from our data provider, not a live tick.
What should I pay attention to with Vaxcyte Inc right now?
The price sits above even our optimistic bull case ($10.64). The favourable scenario is already priced in. Weak quality (18/100) and above fair value at the same time, the margin of safety is missing on both counts. The large gap to fair value rests on thin data (low evidence): fewer applicable models and a shorter history. Read it with extra caution. A fairly wide model range ($5.62 to $10.64) leaves room in how you read the outcome.
Key figures of Vaxcyte Inc
How large is the market capitalisation of Vaxcyte Inc (PCVX)?
The market capitalisation of Vaxcyte Inc is $8.2B. The stock-market value of the whole company: share price times number of shares. It is what the market asks for the entire business today.
What are the earnings per share of Vaxcyte Inc (PCVX)?
Earnings per share at Vaxcyte Inc are $−7.63. Earnings per share over the last twelve months: total profit spread across every single share.
What is the return on equity of Vaxcyte Inc (PCVX)?
The return on equity (ROE) of Vaxcyte Inc is −36.5% (last twelve months). Profit relative to shareholders' equity, how efficiently the company works with its owners' money.
What is the EBIT return on assets of Vaxcyte Inc (PCVX)?
On an EBIT basis the return on assets of Vaxcyte Inc is −27.0% (avg 5y). Operating profit (EBIT) relative to everything the company owns, as a multi-year average. It describes the business model rather than one good or bad year.
How much free cash flow does Vaxcyte Inc (PCVX) generate?
The free cash flow of Vaxcyte Inc is −$669M (fiscal year 2025). The cash truly left after running and investing in the business, this is what pays dividends and buybacks.
How much net debt does Vaxcyte Inc (PCVX) carry?
The net debt of Vaxcyte Inc is $54.9M (fiscal year 2025). Debt minus cash on hand. The note shows how many years of free cash flow could in theory pay it off.
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Thin data
Sep 28, 2026