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Panca Global Securities Tbk (PEGE) fair value: what the stock is really worth

As of Sep 24, 2026: fair value of Panca Global Securities Tbk IDR 18, price IDR 139, upside -86.9%, quality 52 out of 100. Calculated from audited financials with 26 valuation models and 37 quality factors, updated daily.

  1. Fair value above price? No
  2. Good quality? Yes
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Financial Services · ID · ISIN ID1000101405

PG Thin data Sep 24, 2026

Panca Global Securities Tbk

PEGE · JK

Stretched ValuationStrong overvaluation with only moderate quality.

!Fair value 18.22 IDR · Strongly overvalued (−87%)
!Quality 52/100
!Weak Growth (revenue 3y −32.2 %/yr)
!negative free cash flow
!Trails peers (1/6)
!Narrow moat 41/100
!Evidence only low, so the estimate is less certain
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What runs behind every stock

26 valuation models 8 families, DCF to NCAV 37 quality factors margins, balance sheet, cashflow, debt 6 AI factors moat, what no ratio measures 2,000+ data points verified, per stock, median

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Price vs Fair Value

1,875 IDR 67.00 IDR Fair Value 18.22 IDR Apr 2021 Sep 2026

White line = price, green steps = our fair value per fiscal year, dashed = 300-day average. As of Sep 24, 2026.

How to read this chart

60‑month range 67.00 IDR – 1,875 IDR · fair‑value band 18.07 IDR – 20.30 IDR · the 139.00 IDR price screens above the 18.22 IDR fair value. Green steps = our fair value per fiscal year (point-in-time, no hindsight). Dashed = 300-day average. As of Sep 24, 2026.

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Company profile

PT Panca Global Kapital Tbk engages in the securities brokerage and underwriting services in Indonesia. It is also involved in general trading, services, development, and investment. The company was formerly known as PT Panca Global Securities Tbk and changed its name to PT Panca Global Kapital Tbk in March 2018.

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PT Panca Global Kapital Tbk engages in the securities brokerage and underwriting services in Indonesia. It is also involved in general trading, services, development, and investment. The company was formerly known as PT Panca Global Securities Tbk and changed its name to PT Panca Global Kapital Tbk in March 2018. PT Panca Global Kapital Tbk was founded in 1999 and is based in Jakarta, Indonesia.

Stock analysis

Panca Global Securities Tbk (PEGE) currently trades at 139.00 IDR, while our model-based Fair Value estimate is 18.22 IDR, implying the stock looks roughly 662.8% overvalued today.

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Valuation

Bull case: the Asset-Based group reads highest at a median of 32.27 IDR per share, and 0 of the 6 models we run sit above the 139.00 IDR price.

Bear case: the Earnings-Based group reads lowest at 18.89 IDR, and 6 of the 6 models stay below the price. Evidence for this calculation is low.

Scenario range: 18.07 IDR (bear) to 20.30 IDR (bull), the price of 139.00 IDR sits above it. Bear and bull are the same models on cautious and optimistic assumptions, a range, not a price target.

Quality & growth

The Quality Score stands at 52/100 (solid quality), in the Financial Services sector.

Weak Growth: Revenue is shrinking: the last year, the last three and the last five years are all negative.

Panca Global Securities Tbk reported revenue of 12.7B IDR in FY2025 versus −84.0B IDR in FY2021. Reported net income was −35.4B IDR in FY2025.

Key figures

Market cap 394B IDR (≈ $22.0M) · EPS (TTM) −17.20 IDR · Return on equity −30.3% · Return on assets (EBIT) −20.5% · Operating margin 122% · Revenue (TTM) −12.2B IDR · Revenue growth (YoY) −86.8% · EPS growth (YoY) −98.7%.

Competitive moat

Our AI-assisted moat analysis scores the competitive advantage at 42 out of 100 (low confidence).

What moves the price

The share trades about 53% below its 52-week high and 56% above its 52-week low, currently below its 200-day average.

For context, the median of 10 Financial Services peers we cover trades at −17% fair-value upside, at −87%, PEGE screens richer than that median.

Fair Value models

Bear 18.07 IDR Fair Value 18.22 IDR Bull 20.30 IDR
Model ⓘEach model values the company its own way (discounted cash flow, earnings, assets, dividends). The fair value above is their evidence-weighted blend, not the output of a single model. Bear ⓘBear = the cautious scenario: the same model computed with conservative anchors (lower growth, margins and valuation multiples). Together with Bull it frames a plausible valuation range, not a price target.BaseBull ⓘBull = the optimistic scenario: the same model computed with favourable anchors (higher growth, margins and valuation multiples). Together with Bear it frames a plausible valuation range, not a price target. Evidence ⓘEvidence = how well-backed THIS model's estimate is for this stock (0–100): how complete and reliable its input data are, and how well the model fits the company. The final Fair Value is an evidence-weighted blend, so better-evidenced models count more. Green ≥70, amber 50–69, grey below 50.
Highest evidence
EPV 18.58 IDR 18.89 IDR 19.15 IDR 70
ROIC Compounder 18.58 IDR 18.89 IDR 19.15 IDR 70
EV/EBITDA 19.16 IDR 20.00 IDR 20.84 IDR 64
All 6 models by family
Earnings-Based
EPV 18.58 IDR 18.89 IDR 19.15 IDR 70
Multiples
EV/EBIT 18.78 IDR 19.49 IDR 20.20 IDR 63
EV/EBITDA 19.16 IDR 20.00 IDR 20.84 IDR 64
EV/Revenue 18.80 IDR 19.73 IDR 20.66 IDR 52
Asset-Based
NCAV (Graham) 24.08 IDR 32.27 IDR 48.16 IDR 51
Economic Profit
ROIC Compounder 18.58 IDR 18.89 IDR 19.15 IDR 70

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Quality Score breakdown

Overall quality 52/100

Of which business quality 47 · Market factors (momentum, volatility) 36

Profitability 2
Margins and returns on capital today
Quality Growth 33
Are margins and returns improving?
Cashflow 1
Earnings quality: real cash, not paper profit
Fin. Strength 97
Balance sheet, leverage, solvency risk
Investment 100
Disciplined investing over empire-building
Low Volatility 11
Calm price path (market factor)
Momentum 49
Price trend over the last 3–12 months (market factor)
52W Momentum 41
Distance to the 52-week high (market factor)
Net Issuance 82
Share count: buybacks or dilution?

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Revenue & earnings trend

Growth Quality ⓘGrowth is valuable only when reinvestment earns attractive returns (Aswath Damodaran): sustainable growth depends on return on capital, reinvestment and efficiency. Basis: total company revenue over the periods shown on the cards (3Y/5Y/all years), not per share, so a merger can show up as a growth jump; per-share earnings growth is in the value-creation card. 0/100
Revenue is shrinking: the last year, the last three and the last five years are all negative.
Revenue growth 1 year
−33.8%
Revenue growth 3 years ⓘMeasures the company's TOTAL revenue from reported annual statements: compound average growth per year (CAGR) from the fiscal year 3, 5 or N years back to the most recent comparable fiscal year. Not per share: buybacks do not change this number, and a merger can appear as a growth jump. Per-share growth (which does include buybacks) is in the value-creation card.
−32.2%
Revenue growth 19 years ⓘMeasures the company's TOTAL revenue from reported annual statements: compound average growth per year (CAGR) from the fiscal year 3, 5 or N years back to the most recent comparable fiscal year. Not per share: buybacks do not change this number, and a merger can appear as a growth jump. Per-share growth (which does include buybacks) is in the value-creation card.
−2.6%
Profit margin (trend) ⓘOperating margin then vs now, from reported annual statements. A falling margin after a boom year is the classic peak-earnings signal: the growth rate then leans on an inflated base.
3.8% (2019) → −205.1% (2024)
What shareholders gained per year ⓘWe only publish this rate when it is defensible. Reason: fiscal 2025 is a loss year, no rate is defined from a loss
not computed

PEGE screens 663% overvalued. Compare with Morgan Stanley, a financial holding company, →

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Peer GroupⓘHow this stock ranks against its industry: the green marker is this stock, the band is the typical 25–75% peer range, and the tick is the median.Capital Markets · 460 stocks

Beats the industry median on 1/5 measures
Overall it trails its industry peers.
Valuation
Quality Score 51 · Below median
Fair Value upside −87% · Bottom 25%
Profitability
Return on assets −26% · Bottom 25%
Operating margin (TTM) 122% · Top 25%
Growth and dividend
Revenue growth −87% · Bottom 25%

Context: sector, industry, market

Values & ESG

Does this company touch areas you may want to avoid? The classification is inferred from sector and industry.

None of the checked exposures detected

Similar stocks

10 more Capital Markets stocks, each showing price versus our Fair Value estimate.

Stock Price Fair Value vs Fair Value
Morgan Stanley, a financial holding company, MS $196.32 $314.07 +60%
The Goldman Sachs Group GS $923.29 $766.86 −17%
The Charles Schwab Corporation SCHW $99.49 $118.07 +19%
Interactive Brokers Group IBKR $89.82 $23.27 −74%
Robinhood Markets, Inc HOOD $122.70 $47.73 −61%
Macquarie Group MQG A$242.55 A$80.51 −67%
CITIC Securities Company 600030 ¥26.79 ¥18.35 −32%
Guotai Haitong Securities Co 601211 ¥17.67 ¥19.29 +9%
East Money Information Co 300059 ¥18.77 ¥4.94 −74%
CSC Financial Co 601066 ¥23.67 ¥39.83 +68%

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Panca Global Securities Tbk · Fair Value
18.22 IDR −663%Fair Value
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Cite: Fair Value Calculator (2026). "Panca Global Securities Tbk Fair Value". https://www.fairvalue-calculator.com/stock/PEGE

Frequently asked questions

Is Panca Global Securities Tbk (PEGE) overvalued or undervalued?
As of Sep 24, 2026, our model estimates a fair value of 18.22 IDR versus a price of 139.00 IDR, about −87% upside (overvalued).
What is the fair value of PEGE?
Our model-based fair value for Panca Global Securities Tbk is 18.22 IDR (as of Sep 24, 2026), built from audited fundamentals. The current price: 139.00 IDR.
What is the quality score of PEGE?
Panca Global Securities Tbk has a Quality Score of 52/100. It measures business quality (profitability, growth, cash flow, balance-sheet strength, investment discipline, share issuance). Market factors such as price momentum and volatility do not enter the number; they are shown separately in the detail view.
What is the price target for Panca Global Securities Tbk (PEGE)?
Our model-based price target is the fair value of 18.22 IDR (as of Sep 24, 2026) from 6 valuation models. Cautious scenario 18.07 IDR, optimistic scenario 20.30 IDR. It is a calculation from audited fundamentals, not an analyst target.
What is the Panca Global Securities Tbk stock forecast for 2026?
Our models put fair value at 18.22 IDR, about −87% upside versus a price of 139.00 IDR (overvalued). Cautious scenario 18.07 IDR, optimistic scenario 20.30 IDR. The calculation is refreshed regularly with new filings.
What is the intrinsic value of Panca Global Securities Tbk (PEGE)?
Intrinsic value and fair value mean the same thing: what the business is worth on its numbers, independent of the share price. For Panca Global Securities Tbk it is 18.22 IDR per share (as of Sep 24, 2026), against a price of 139.00 IDR. It is the blended result of 6 valuation models (cash flow, earnings, asset, dividend).
Is Panca Global Securities Tbk stock overvalued or undervalued in 2026?
As of Sep 24, 2026, PEGE trades above its calculated fair value: price 139.00 IDR, fair value 18.22 IDR, a gap of about −87% (overvalued). The calculation is refreshed with each new quarterly report, so the verdict can change during the year.
Is fair value the same as the market price of PEGE?
No. The price is what the market pays today (139.00 IDR); the fair value is what the company's own numbers justify (18.22 IDR). For Panca Global Securities Tbk the two are 120.78 IDR per share apart. That gap is exactly why we show both numbers side by side.
How much is Panca Global Securities Tbk worth?
The market values Panca Global Securities Tbk at about 394B IDR (market capitalisation, as of Sep 24, 2026). Per share that is 139.00 IDR; our models calculate a fair value of 18.22 IDR per share.
What do the bullish and bearish scenarios say about PEGE?
Our models span a range for Panca Global Securities Tbk: cautious scenario 18.07 IDR, base 18.22 IDR, optimistic 20.30 IDR per share (as of Sep 24, 2026, price 139.00 IDR). The range comes from different growth and margin assumptions, not from analyst opinions.
How solid is the balance sheet of Panca Global Securities Tbk (PEGE)?
Balance-sheet figures for Panca Global Securities Tbk (as of Sep 24, 2026): return on equity −30.3%. They feed the Quality Score of 52/100, which measures business quality independently of the share price.
How far is PEGE from its 52-week high?
Panca Global Securities Tbk trades at 139.00 IDR, about 53% below its 52-week high of 296.00 IDR and 56% above the low of 89.00 IDR (as of Sep 24, 2026). Distance from the high says nothing about value: that is what the fair value of 18.22 IDR is for.
Which stocks are comparable to Panca Global Securities Tbk?
From the same area (Financial Services) we also value Morgan Stanley, a financial holding company,, The Goldman Sachs Group, The Charles Schwab Corporation, Interactive Brokers Group, among others. Each of them has its own fair-value calculation on this site using the same models, so the comparison is like for like.
Is Panca Global Securities Tbk stock attractive at the current price?
The data as of Sep 24, 2026: price 139.00 IDR, calculated fair value 18.22 IDR (−87%), Quality Score 52/100, from 6 models. Whether that fits your horizon and risk tolerance is your call. We provide the calculation, not investment advice.
How is the fair value of PEGE calculated?
We run Panca Global Securities Tbk through 6 models from four families: discounted cash flow, earnings models, asset and balance-sheet models, and dividend models. Every model gets the same audited fundamentals; the result is the weighted average of 18.22 IDR, with the spread shown as a cautious and an optimistic scenario.
Is it still worth investing in stocks now?
The global stock market currently sits 14.0 % above its aggregate fair value. Panca Global Securities Tbk itself currently trades above fair value. An expensive market is no reason to stay out and no reason to buy everything at once: keep a broad savings plan running, buy single stocks only with money you can do without, and hold part of your money liquid while the market is high. The full picture including sectors is on is it worth investing now.
What is the share price of Panca Global Securities Tbk (PEGE)?
The closing price on Sep 24, 2026 was 139.00 IDR. Our model-based fair value is 18.22 IDR, about −87% upside (overvalued). We carry closing prices from our data provider, not a live tick.
What should I pay attention to with Panca Global Securities Tbk right now?
The price sits above even our optimistic bull case (20.30 IDR). The favourable scenario is already priced in. The large gap to fair value rests on thin data (low evidence): fewer applicable models and a shorter history. Read it with extra caution. Solid but not exceptional quality (52/100) and above fair value, neither a clear bargain nor a standout compounder. The models converge in a tight band (18.07 IDR to 20.30 IDR), unusually little disagreement for a valuation.

Key figures of Panca Global Securities Tbk

How large is the market capitalisation of Panca Global Securities Tbk (PEGE)?
The market capitalisation of Panca Global Securities Tbk is 394B IDR (≈ $22.0M). The stock-market value of the whole company: share price times number of shares. It is what the market asks for the entire business today.
What are the earnings per share of Panca Global Securities Tbk (PEGE)?
Earnings per share at Panca Global Securities Tbk are −17.20 IDR. Earnings per share over the last twelve months: total profit spread across every single share.
What is the return on equity of Panca Global Securities Tbk (PEGE)?
The return on equity (ROE) of Panca Global Securities Tbk is −30.3% (last twelve months). Profit relative to shareholders' equity, how efficiently the company works with its owners' money.
What is the EBIT return on assets of Panca Global Securities Tbk (PEGE)?
On an EBIT basis the return on assets of Panca Global Securities Tbk is −20.5% (avg 5y). Operating profit (EBIT) relative to everything the company owns, as a multi-year average. It describes the business model rather than one good or bad year.
What is the operating margin of Panca Global Securities Tbk (PEGE)?
The operating margin of Panca Global Securities Tbk is 122% (last twelve months). Profit from the core business (before interest and taxes) relative to revenue.
How much revenue does Panca Global Securities Tbk (PEGE) generate?
Panca Global Securities Tbk generates revenue of −12.2B IDR (last twelve months). Revenue of the last twelve months (TTM), the most recent full year, not the calendar year.
How fast is revenue growing at Panca Global Securities Tbk (PEGE)?
Revenue at Panca Global Securities Tbk is growing −86.8% versus a year earlier (3y avg −32.2%). How much revenue grew versus a year earlier (YoY). The 3-year average next to it puts the single year in context.
How fast are earnings growing at Panca Global Securities Tbk (PEGE)?
Earnings per share at Panca Global Securities Tbk are growing −98.7% versus a year earlier. How much earnings per share grew versus a year earlier.
How much free cash flow does Panca Global Securities Tbk (PEGE) generate?
The free cash flow of Panca Global Securities Tbk is −18.6B IDR (fiscal year 2025). The cash truly left after running and investing in the business, this is what pays dividends and buybacks.
How much net cash does Panca Global Securities Tbk (PEGE) hold?
Panca Global Securities Tbk holds more cash than debt, 49.4B IDR net (fiscal year 2025). The company holds more cash than debt, a safety cushion.
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