PGE Polska Grupa Energetyczna SA (PGE) fair value: what the stock is really worth
As of Sep 29, 2026: fair value of PGE Polska Grupa Energetyczna SA PLN 20.66, price PLN 14.27, upside +44.8%, quality 46 out of 100. Calculated from audited financials with 26 valuation models and 37 quality factors, updated daily.
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Price vs Fair Value
White line = price, green steps = our fair value per fiscal year, dashed = 300-day average. As of Sep 27, 2026.
How to read this chart
60‑month range 4.74 PLN – 14.41 PLN · fair‑value band 13.28 PLN – 31.47 PLN · the 14.27 PLN price screens below the 20.66 PLN fair value. Green steps = our fair value per fiscal year (point-in-time, no hindsight). 1 fiscal year is left out: there the valuation rested on only a fraction of the usual models. Dashed = 300-day average. As of Sep 27, 2026.
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PGE Polska Grupa Energetyczna S.A. engages in the production and distribution of electricity and heat in Poland. It operates through Renewables, Gas-fired Generation, Coal Energy, District Heating, Distribution, Railway Energy Services, Supply, and Other Activities segments.
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PGE Polska Grupa Energetyczna S.A. engages in the production and distribution of electricity and heat in Poland. It operates through Renewables, Gas-fired Generation, Coal Energy, District Heating, Distribution, Railway Energy Services, Supply, and Other Activities segments. The Renewables segment engages in generation of electricity in pumped-storage power plants and from renewable sources. Its Gas-fired Generation segment produces electricity from gas-fired units. The Coal Energy segment includes lignite mining and electricity generation from conventional sources. Its District Heating segment engages in combined heat and power (CHP) generation and heat transmission and distribution. The Distribution segment involves in the management of local distribution networks and the transmission of electricity. Its Railway Energy Services segment engages in distribution and sales of electricity to railway companies and railway-related customers, sales of fuels, maintenance and upgrading of overhead lines, and other electricity-related services. The Supply segment involves in electricity and gas trading on wholesale markets, CO2 emission rights trading, trading in energy origin rights arising from certificates of origin, and the purchase and supply of fuels, as well as the sales of electricity and services to end-users PGE Polska Grupa Energetyczna S.A. was founded in 1990 and is based in Lublin, Poland.
Stock analysis
PGE Polska Grupa Energetyczna SA (PGE) currently trades at 14.27 PLN, while our model-based Fair Value estimate is 20.66 PLN, implying the stock looks roughly 30.9% undervalued today.
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Valuation
Bull case: the DCF Models group reads highest at a median of 22.61 PLN per share, and 8 of the 10 models we run sit above the 14.27 PLN price.
Bear case: the Multiples group reads lowest at 10.81 PLN, and 2 of the 10 models stay below the price. Evidence for this calculation is medium.
Scenario range: 13.28 PLN (bear) to 31.47 PLN (bull), the price of 14.27 PLN sits inside it. Bear and bull are the same models on cautious and optimistic assumptions, a range, not a price target.
Quality & growth
The Quality Score stands at 46/100 (below-average quality), in the Utilities sector.
Weak Growth: Revenue growth is inconsistent: the periods point in different directions, so there is no trend to rely on.
PGE Polska Grupa Energetyczna SA reported revenue of 61.4B PLN in FY2025 versus 52.7B PLN in FY2021, a compound +3.9%/yr. Reported net income was −3.5B PLN in FY2025.
Key figures
Market cap 32.0B PLN (≈ $8.3B) · P/E ratio 4.2 · P/S ratio 0.46 · EPS (TTM) 3.40 PLN · Net margin −5.7% · Return on equity 18.0% · Return on assets (EBIT) 0.9% · Operating margin 17.4%.
Competitive moat
Our AI-assisted moat analysis scores the competitive advantage at 42 out of 100 (low confidence).
What moves the price
The share trades about 1% below its 52-week high and 70% above its 52-week low, currently above its 200-day average.
For context, the median of 10 Utilities peers we cover trades at −31% fair-value upside, at 45%, PGE screens cheaper than that median.
Fair Value models
Bear 13.28 PLNFair Value 20.66 PLNBull 31.47 PLN
Model ⓘEach model values the company its own way (discounted cash flow, earnings, assets, dividends). The fair value above is their evidence-weighted blend, not the output of a single model. Based on fiscal year 2025 figures (about 9 months old). Earnings retained since then (2.53 PLN per share) are deliberately not added.Bear ⓘBear = the cautious scenario: the same model computed with conservative anchors (lower growth, margins and valuation multiples). Together with Bull it frames a plausible valuation range, not a price target.BaseBull ⓘBull = the optimistic scenario: the same model computed with favourable anchors (higher growth, margins and valuation multiples). Together with Bear it frames a plausible valuation range, not a price target. If a model's bull case is above four times its base value, the table shows that limit with a > sign (like the overall Bull above): beyond it no assumption holds.Evidence ⓘEvidence = how well-backed THIS model's estimate is for this stock (0–100): how complete and reliable its input data are, and how well the model fits the company. The final Fair Value is an evidence-weighted blend, so better-evidenced models count more. Green ≥70, amber 50–69, grey below 50.
Growth Quality ⓘGrowth is valuable only when reinvestment earns attractive returns (Aswath Damodaran): sustainable growth depends on return on capital, reinvestment and efficiency. Basis: total company revenue over the periods shown on the cards (3Y/5Y/all years), not per share, so a merger can show up as a growth jump; per-share earnings growth is in the value-creation card.40/100
Revenue growth is inconsistent: the periods point in different directions, so there is no trend to rely on.
Revenue growth 1 year
−4.7%
Revenue growth 3 years ⓘMeasures the company's TOTAL revenue from reported annual statements: compound average growth per year (CAGR) from the fiscal year 3, 5 or N years back to the most recent comparable fiscal year. Not per share: buybacks do not change this number, and a merger can appear as a growth jump. Per-share growth (which does include buybacks) is in the value-creation card.
−5.8%
Revenue growth 5 years ⓘMeasures the company's TOTAL revenue from reported annual statements: compound average growth per year (CAGR) from the fiscal year 3, 5 or N years back to the most recent comparable fiscal year. Not per share: buybacks do not change this number, and a merger can appear as a growth jump. Per-share growth (which does include buybacks) is in the value-creation card.
+6.1%
Start year 2020 (pandemic). Over 10 years: +8.0% a year
Revenue growth 19 years ⓘMeasures the company's TOTAL revenue from reported annual statements: compound average growth per year (CAGR) from the fiscal year 3, 5 or N years back to the most recent comparable fiscal year. Not per share: buybacks do not change this number, and a merger can appear as a growth jump. Per-share growth (which does include buybacks) is in the value-creation card.
+5.0%
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Profit margin (trend) ⓘOperating margin then vs now, from reported annual statements. A falling margin after a boom year is the classic peak-earnings signal: the growth rate then leans on an inflated base.
3.1% (2020) → −4.1% (2025)
What shareholders gained per year ⓘWe only publish this rate when it is defensible. Reason: fiscal 2025 is a loss year, no rate is defined from a loss
not computed
Growth Forecast
A lot of optimism in the price
The price assumes about as much growth as the company has delivered so far and more than analysts expect.
What the price assumes ⓘThis turns our valuation around: instead of asking what the share is worth, it asks what growth the current price requires. It uses the cash the company keeps after all spending (free cash flow), the same discount rate as our models, five years of growth, then slowing evenly to 2 % a year by year ten. Compared with the analysts' sales forecasts extended to the same five years (at least three analysts, for context only, it does not enter the Fair Value): within 3 percentage points counts as "in line" (amber), below that little optimism (green), above that a lot of optimism (red).
+8.5%
Yearly growth needed for the next five years to justify today's price.
What forecasts expect ⓘAnalysts publish sales forecasts for the next two fiscal years. For the years after that, growth slows evenly to 2 % a year by year ten (2 % is the long-run rate our models use). Projected years are marked as such.
+0.2%
Yearly sales growth analysts expect, extended to five years.
After inflation (Poland: IMF forecast 3.1% a year to 2030, 4.6% from 2016 to 2025) that is about +5.2% a year for the price and −2.9% for the forecasts.
Compare PGE Polska Grupa Energetyczna SA with another stock
Price, fair value, quality and upside side by side.
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Peer GroupⓘHow this stock ranks against its industry: the green marker is this stock, the band is the typical 25–75% peer range, and the tick is the median.Utilities - Regulated Electric · 152 stocks
Beats the industry median on 12/14 measures
Overall it ranks above its industry peers.
Valuation
Quality Score46 · Above median
Fair Value upside+44.8% · Top 25%
Profitability
Return on equity (TTM)18.0% · Top 25%
Return on assets5.0% · Above median
Net margin (TTM)12.1% · Above median
Operating margin (TTM)17.4% · Below median
Growth and dividend
Revenue growth10.6% · Above median
Balance sheet
Debt / equity0.28× · Lowest 25%
Valuation Multiplesvs Utilities - Regulated Electric median · lower = cheaper
For bloggers, editors and developers: paste this into your site or blog (a “Custom HTML” block in WordPress), it shows the current fair value and links back here. Free, plain HTML, and welcome. Full data streams (CSV/JSON) at /developers.
Cite: Fair Value Calculator (2026). "PGE Polska Grupa Energetyczna SA Fair Value". https://www.fairvalue-calculator.com/stock/PGE
Frequently asked questions
Is PGE Polska Grupa Energetyczna SA (PGE) overvalued or undervalued?
As of Sep 27, 2026, our model estimates a fair value of 20.66 PLN versus a price of 14.27 PLN, about +45% upside (undervalued).
What is the fair value of PGE?
Our model-based fair value for PGE Polska Grupa Energetyczna SA is 20.66 PLN (as of Sep 27, 2026), built from audited fundamentals. The current price: 14.27 PLN.
What is the quality score of PGE?
PGE Polska Grupa Energetyczna SA has a Quality Score of 46/100. It measures business quality (profitability, growth, cash flow, balance-sheet strength, investment discipline, share issuance). Market factors such as price momentum and volatility do not enter the number; they are shown separately in the detail view.
What is the price target for PGE Polska Grupa Energetyczna SA (PGE)?
Our model-based price target is the fair value of 20.66 PLN (as of Sep 27, 2026) from 10 valuation models. Cautious scenario 13.28 PLN, optimistic scenario 31.47 PLN. It is a calculation from audited fundamentals, not an analyst target.
What is the PGE Polska Grupa Energetyczna SA stock forecast for 2026?
Our models put fair value at 20.66 PLN, about +45% upside versus a price of 14.27 PLN (undervalued). Cautious scenario 13.28 PLN, optimistic scenario 31.47 PLN. The calculation is refreshed regularly with new filings.
What is the revenue of PGE Polska Grupa Energetyczna SA (PGE)?
PGE Polska Grupa Energetyczna SA reported trailing-twelve-month revenue of about 63.2B PLN (latest available figure, as of Sep 27, 2026).
What growth is priced into PGE Polska Grupa Energetyczna SA (PGE)?
For today's price to be fair in a discounted-cash-flow model, PGE Polska Grupa Energetyczna SA would have to grow free cash flow by +8.5 % per year for five years (discount rate 10.2 %, then slowing evenly to 2 % perpetual growth by year ten). Over the last 5 years revenue grew +6.1 % per year. As of Sep 27, 2026.
What discount rate (WACC) does the fair value of PGE use?
Our models discount PGE Polska Grupa Energetyczna SA at 10.2 %: a base by market capitalisation (mid), damped by beta 0.83, country premium for Poland. The same rate applies in all 26 models.
What is a reverse DCF?
A reverse DCF turns the usual calculation around. Instead of deriving a value from assumptions, it takes today's price as given and asks: what free-cash-flow growth would a company have to deliver for exactly this price to be fair? The result is not a forecast but the expectation already priced in. For PGE Polska Grupa Energetyczna SA that is +8.5 % per year a year over ten years, using the same discount rate (10.2 %) and the same formula as our fair value.
How much growth has PGE Polska Grupa Energetyczna SA (PGE) delivered so far?
Over the past 5 years revenue at PGE Polska Grupa Energetyczna SA grew +6.1 % a year. The price currently implies +8.5 % per year free-cash-flow growth a year. Comparing the two shows how much confidence is in the price: if it demands more than has been delivered, the business has to accelerate for the maths to work.
How fast is the sector of PGE Polska Grupa Energetyczna SA (PGE) growing?
The median revenue growth in the sector is +2.8 % a year. That is the yardstick for the growth priced into PGE Polska Grupa Energetyczna SA (+8.5 % per year a year): it shows whether the expectation is within the usual range or beyond it.
What is the free cash flow yield of PGE Polska Grupa Energetyczna SA (PGE)?
The free-cash-flow yield on the price is 6.07 %: that much free cash flow PGE Polska Grupa Energetyczna SA produces per unit of market value. When it exceeds the discount rate of our models (10.2 %), the business already earns more than its cost of capital demands, and the price needs little additional growth.
What is the intrinsic value of PGE Polska Grupa Energetyczna SA (PGE)?
Intrinsic value and fair value mean the same thing: what the business is worth on its numbers, independent of the share price. For PGE Polska Grupa Energetyczna SA it is 20.66 PLN per share (as of Sep 27, 2026), against a price of 14.27 PLN. It is the blended result of 10 valuation models (cash flow, earnings, asset, dividend).
Is PGE Polska Grupa Energetyczna SA stock overvalued or undervalued in 2026?
As of Sep 27, 2026, PGE trades below its calculated fair value: price 14.27 PLN, fair value 20.66 PLN, a gap of about +45% (undervalued). The calculation is refreshed with each new quarterly report, so the verdict can change during the year.
Is fair value the same as the market price of PGE?
No. The price is what the market pays today (14.27 PLN); the fair value is what the company's own numbers justify (20.66 PLN). For PGE Polska Grupa Energetyczna SA the two are 6.39 PLN per share apart. That gap is exactly why we show both numbers side by side.
How much is PGE Polska Grupa Energetyczna SA worth?
The market values PGE Polska Grupa Energetyczna SA at about 32.0B PLN (market capitalisation, as of Sep 27, 2026). Per share that is 14.27 PLN; our models calculate a fair value of 20.66 PLN per share.
What do the bullish and bearish scenarios say about PGE?
Our models span a range for PGE Polska Grupa Energetyczna SA: cautious scenario 13.28 PLN, base 20.66 PLN, optimistic 31.47 PLN per share (as of Sep 27, 2026, price 14.27 PLN). The range comes from different growth and margin assumptions, not from analyst opinions.
What is the P/E ratio of PGE?
PGE Polska Grupa Energetyczna SA trades at a price-to-earnings ratio of 4.2 (as of Sep 27, 2026). A P/E on its own says little: it compares the price with ONE year of profit, while our fair value of 20.66 PLN is built from several models across several years. Other multiples: PEG 1.8, P/B 0.8, P/S 0.5, EV/EBITDA 2.7.
What is the PEG ratio of PGE?
The PEG ratio of PGE Polska Grupa Energetyczna SA is 1.79 (P/E divided by earnings growth, as of Sep 27, 2026). That is above 1, so the growth is already paid for in the price.
How solid is the balance sheet of PGE Polska Grupa Energetyczna SA (PGE)?
Balance-sheet figures for PGE Polska Grupa Energetyczna SA (as of Sep 27, 2026): return on equity 18.0%, debt of 0.28 per unit of equity. They feed the Quality Score of 46/100, which measures business quality independently of the share price.
How far is PGE from its 52-week high?
PGE Polska Grupa Energetyczna SA trades at 14.27 PLN, about 1% below its 52-week high of 14.41 PLN and 70% above the low of 8.40 PLN (as of Sep 29, 2026). Distance from the high says nothing about value: that is what the fair value of 20.66 PLN is for.
Which stocks are comparable to PGE Polska Grupa Energetyczna SA?
From the same area (Utilities) we also value NextEra Energy, Inc, The Southern Company, Duke Energy Corporation, American Electric Power Company, among others. Each of them has its own fair-value calculation on this site using the same models, so the comparison is like for like.
Is PGE Polska Grupa Energetyczna SA stock attractive at the current price?
The data as of Sep 27, 2026: price 14.27 PLN, calculated fair value 20.66 PLN (+45%), Quality Score 46/100, from 10 models. Whether that fits your horizon and risk tolerance is your call. We provide the calculation, not investment advice.
How is the fair value of PGE calculated?
We run PGE Polska Grupa Energetyczna SA through 10 models from four families: discounted cash flow, earnings models, asset and balance-sheet models, and dividend models. Every model gets the same audited fundamentals; the result is the weighted average of 20.66 PLN, with the spread shown as a cautious and an optimistic scenario.
Is it still worth investing in stocks now?
The global stock market currently sits 15.9 % above its aggregate fair value. PGE Polska Grupa Energetyczna SA currently trades 31 % below its own fair value, and the market average says nothing about that. An expensive market is no reason to stay out and no reason to buy everything at once: keep a broad savings plan running, buy single stocks only with money you can do without, and hold part of your money liquid while the market is high. The full picture including sectors is on is it worth investing now.
What is the share price of PGE Polska Grupa Energetyczna SA (PGE)?
The closing price on Sep 29, 2026 was 14.27 PLN. Our model-based fair value is 20.66 PLN, about +45% upside (undervalued). We carry closing prices from our data provider, not a live tick.
What should I pay attention to with PGE Polska Grupa Energetyczna SA right now?
Solid quality (46/100) at a price below fair value, the discount is the argument here, not the business quality. A fairly wide model range (13.28 PLN to 31.47 PLN) leaves room in how you read the outcome.
Key figures of PGE Polska Grupa Energetyczna SA
How large is the market capitalisation of PGE Polska Grupa Energetyczna SA (PGE)?
The market capitalisation of PGE Polska Grupa Energetyczna SA is 32.0B PLN (≈ $8.3B). The stock-market value of the whole company: share price times number of shares. It is what the market asks for the entire business today.
What is the P/S ratio of PGE Polska Grupa Energetyczna SA (PGE)?
The price-to-sales ratio of PGE Polska Grupa Energetyczna SA is 0.46 (last twelve months). Price to sales: market value relative to yearly revenue. Useful when profit is thin or distorted.
What are the earnings per share of PGE Polska Grupa Energetyczna SA (PGE)?
Earnings per share at PGE Polska Grupa Energetyczna SA are 3.40 PLN (price ÷ EPS = P/E 4.2). Earnings per share over the last twelve months: total profit spread across every single share.
What is the net margin of PGE Polska Grupa Energetyczna SA (PGE)?
The net margin of PGE Polska Grupa Energetyczna SA is −5.7% (fiscal year 2025). How much of every unit of revenue ends up as profit. 10% means 10 cents of profit per dollar of sales.
What is the return on equity of PGE Polska Grupa Energetyczna SA (PGE)?
The return on equity (ROE) of PGE Polska Grupa Energetyczna SA is 18.0% (last twelve months). Profit relative to shareholders' equity, how efficiently the company works with its owners' money.
What is the EBIT return on assets of PGE Polska Grupa Energetyczna SA (PGE)?
On an EBIT basis the return on assets of PGE Polska Grupa Energetyczna SA is 0.9% (avg 5y). Operating profit (EBIT) relative to everything the company owns, as a multi-year average. It describes the business model rather than one good or bad year.
What is the operating margin of PGE Polska Grupa Energetyczna SA (PGE)?
The operating margin of PGE Polska Grupa Energetyczna SA is 17.4% (last twelve months). Profit from the core business (before interest and taxes) relative to revenue.
How fast is revenue growing at PGE Polska Grupa Energetyczna SA (PGE)?
Revenue at PGE Polska Grupa Energetyczna SA is growing +10.6% versus a year earlier (3y avg −5.8%). How much revenue grew versus a year earlier (YoY). The 3-year average next to it puts the single year in context.
How fast are earnings growing at PGE Polska Grupa Energetyczna SA (PGE)?
Earnings per share at PGE Polska Grupa Energetyczna SA are growing −20.4% versus a year earlier. How much earnings per share grew versus a year earlier.
How much net debt does PGE Polska Grupa Energetyczna SA (PGE) carry?
The net debt of PGE Polska Grupa Energetyczna SA is 2.6B PLN (fiscal year 2025, ≈ 1.3 yrs of FCF). Debt minus cash on hand. The note shows how many years of free cash flow could in theory pay it off.
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