PGE Polska Grupa Energetyczna S.A (PGE) Fair Value & Analysis
Utilities · PL · Market cap 21.0B PLN
Fair value as of: Aug 13, 2026
From 12 valuation models · updated yesterday
Fair value updated Aug 13, 2026, revised from 16.83 PLN to 14.32 PLN (−14.9%) since Jul 12, 2026. Share price +15.4% over the past month.
Below-average quality, screening 33% undervalued on our models.
What matters now
- The large discount to fair value meets weak quality (39/100). That raises the risk this is a value trap rather than a bargain.
- A fairly wide model range (9.03 PLN to 22.29 PLN) leaves room in how you read the outcome.
Price vs Fair Value (5 years)
White line = price, green steps = our fair value per fiscal year, dashed = 300-day average. As of Aug 13, 2026.
How to read this chart
60‑month range 4.74 PLN – 12.65 PLN · fair‑value band 9.03 PLN – 22.29 PLN · the 10.79 PLN price screens below the 14.32 PLN fair value. Green steps = our fair value per fiscal year (point-in-time, no hindsight). Dashed = 300-day average. As of Aug 13, 2026.
Analysis
PGE Polska Grupa Energetyczna S.A (PGE) currently trades at 10.79 PLN, while our model-based Fair Value estimate is 14.32 PLN, implying the stock looks roughly 32.7% undervalued today. The Quality Score stands at 39/100 (below-average quality), in the Utilities sector. Bull case: trading below our estimate, it may offer upside if the fundamentals hold. Bear case: a low price can be a value trap when quality is weak or the data is thin (evidence: medium), always confirm before acting.
Over the trailing twelve months, PGE Polska Grupa Energetyczna S.A generated revenue of 61.7B PLN at a net margin of -6.4%. Revenue grew 1.7% year over year. It earns a return on equity of -8.1%. Net debt stands at 2.6B PLN. Fundamentals as of Aug 13, 2026
Our scenario range runs from 9.03 PLN (bear case) to 22.29 PLN (bull case); at 10.79 PLN, the current price sits within that range. Bear and bull are the same models run on conservative and optimistic assumptions (margins, growth, valuation multiples), so a plausible valuation range, not a price target. The share trades about 15% below its 52-week high and 31% above its 52-week low, currently above its 200-day average. For context, the median of 10 Utilities peers we cover trades at -27% fair-value upside, at 33%, PGE screens cheaper than that median.
Fair Value models
Each model estimates fair value its own way; the Fair Value above is the evidence-weighted blend. Evidence (0–100) measures how completely this model’s inputs are available: well-fed models carry more weight in the blend. The spread across models is intentional, each one stresses a different value driver; dividend models, for instance, come out structurally low when payout is small.
All 12 models by family
Widest divergence: DCF Models (16.03 PLN) versus Dividend Discount (0.0200 PLN). Highest evidence: Growth DCF (80).
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Key figures & financial health
More key figures
Figures from reported company fundamentals · as of Aug 13, 2026. TTM = trailing twelve months.
Quality Score breakdown
Of which business quality 38 · Market factors (momentum, volatility) 45
Non-valuation factor families (profitability, growth, cashflow, financial strength, momentum …), each academically grounded. Valuation itself sits in the Fair Value and is deliberately excluded here to avoid double-counting.
About the company
PGE Polska Grupa Energetyczna S.A. engages in the production and distribution of electricity and heat in Poland. It operates through Renewables, Gas-fired Generation, Coal Energy, District Heating, Distribution, Railway Energy Services, Supply, and Other Activities segments.
Full company description
PGE Polska Grupa Energetyczna S.A. engages in the production and distribution of electricity and heat in Poland. It operates through Renewables, Gas-fired Generation, Coal Energy, District Heating, Distribution, Railway Energy Services, Supply, and Other Activities segments. The Renewables segment engages in generation of electricity in pumped-storage power plants and from renewable sources. Its Gas-fired Generation segment produces electricity from gas-fired units. The Coal Energy segment includes lignite mining and electricity generation from conventional sources. Its District Heating segment engages in combined heat and power (CHP) generation and heat transmission and distribution. The Distribution segment involves in the management of local distribution networks and the transmission of electricity. Its Railway Energy Services segment engages in distribution and sales of electricity to railway companies and railway-related customers, sales of fuels, maintenance and upgrading of overhead lines, and other electricity-related services. The Supply segment involves in electricity and gas trading on wholesale markets, CO2 emission rights trading, trading in energy origin rights arising from certificates of origin, and the purchase and supply of fuels, as well as the sales of electricity and services to end-users PGE Polska Grupa Energetyczna S.A. was founded in 1990 and is based in Lublin, Poland.
Company description, as reported by the company or data provider.
Revenue & earnings trend
FY2021 – FY2025 · reported fiscal years
PGE Polska Grupa Energetyczna S.A reported revenue of 61.4B PLN in FY2025 versus 52.7B PLN in FY2021, a compound +3.9%/yr. Reported net income was −3.5B PLN in FY2025.
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Peer Group
Utilities - Regulated Electric · 149 stocks
How this stock ranks against its industry: the green marker is this stock, the band is the typical 25–75% peer range, and the tick is the median.
Valuation Multiples vs Utilities - Regulated Electric median · lower = cheaper
Snowflake
Five quick dimensions, each 0 to 100: VALUE (fair-value potential), FUTURE (revenue growth), PAST (return on equity), HEALTH (low debt), DIVIDEND (yield). Green = this stock, grey = typical sector peer.
Values & ESG
Does this company touch areas you may want to avoid? The classification is inferred from sector and industry.
ESG scores are not available for this stock yet. Values and ESG data are contextual and can differ between providers.
Similar stocks
10 more Utilities - Regulated Electric stocks, each showing price versus our Fair Value estimate (as of Aug 13, 2026).
| Stock | Price | Fair Value | vs Fair Value |
|---|---|---|---|
| NextEra Energy, Inc NEE | $85.78 | $32.94 | -62% |
| The Southern Company SO | $92.52 | $58.81 | -36% |
| Duke Energy Corporation DUK | $123.19 | $74.89 | -39% |
| National Grid plc NGG | 61,175 ARS | 44,886 ARS | -27% |
| NTPC Limited NTPC | ₹339.45 | ₹375.02 | +10% |
| CEZ, a. s. CEZ | 244.80 PLN | 167.29 PLN | -32% |
| Power Grid Corporation POWERGRID | ₹269.45 | ₹252.77 | -6% |
| China National Nuclear Power Co 601985 | ¥8.81 | ¥6.73 | -24% |
| CLP Holdings 0002 | HK$77.90 | HK$42.12 | -46% |
| Tenaga Nasional Berhad 5347 | 14.58 MYR | 14.72 MYR | +1% |
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Frequently asked questions
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How we calculate Fair Value
Each company is valued through a stack of independent intrinsic-value models (DCF variants, residual-income, multiples and more), blended into one family-balanced consensus and weighted by how much trustworthy data backs it. A separate quality layer scores the fundamentals. Every input is real reported data, nothing guessed.
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