Prairie Provident Resources Inc (PPR) Fair Value & Analysis
Energy · CA · Market cap C$17.1M
Fair value as of: Jun 23, 2026
From 4 valuation models · updated 49 days ago
Share price +40.0% over the past month.
Below-average quality, screening 65% undervalued on our models.
What matters now
- The large discount to fair value meets weak quality (7/100). That raises the risk this is a value trap rather than a bargain.
- The price is below even our cautious bear case (C$0.6035). The market is more pessimistic than our downside scenario.
- The large gap to fair value rests on thin data (low evidence): fewer applicable models and a shorter history. Read it with extra caution.
Price vs Fair Value (5 years)
White line = price, green steps = our fair value per fiscal year, dashed = 300-day average. As of Jun 23, 2026.
How to read this chart
60‑month range C$0.3400 – C$9.45 · fair‑value band C$0.6035 – C$1.00 · the C$0.4900 price screens below the C$0.8075 fair value. Green steps = our fair value per fiscal year (point-in-time, no hindsight). Dashed = 300-day average. As of Jun 23, 2026.
Analysis
Prairie Provident Resources Inc (PPR) currently trades at C$0.4900, while our model-based Fair Value estimate is C$0.8075, implying the stock looks roughly 64.8% undervalued today. The Quality Score stands at 7/100 (below-average quality), in the Energy sector. Bull case: trading below our estimate, it may offer upside if the fundamentals hold. Bear case: a low price can be a value trap when quality is weak or the data is thin (evidence: low), always confirm before acting.
Over the trailing twelve months, Prairie Provident Resources Inc generated revenue of C$36.9M at a net margin of -38.1%. Revenue declined 26.9% year over year. Net debt stands at C$44.4M. Fundamentals as of Jun 23, 2026
Our scenario range runs from C$0.6035 (bear case) to C$1.00 (bull case); at C$0.4900, the current price sits below that range. Bear and bull are the same models run on conservative and optimistic assumptions (margins, growth, valuation multiples), so a plausible valuation range, not a price target. The share trades about 62% below its 52-week high and 63% above its 52-week low, currently below its 200-day average. For context, the median of 10 Energy peers we cover trades at -26% fair-value upside, at 65%, PPR screens cheaper than that median.
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Key figures & financial health
More key figures
Figures from reported company fundamentals · as of Jun 23, 2026. TTM = trailing twelve months.
Quality Score breakdown
Of which business quality 11 · Market factors (momentum, volatility) 28
Non-valuation factor families (profitability, growth, cashflow, financial strength, momentum …), each academically grounded. Valuation itself sits in the Fair Value and is deliberately excluded here to avoid double-counting.
About the company
Prairie Provident Resources Inc. engages in the exploration, development, and production of oil and natural gas properties in Canada.
Full company description
Prairie Provident Resources Inc. engages in the exploration, development, and production of oil and natural gas properties in Canada. Its principal properties comprise its 78%-owned Michichi Area covering an area of 188,028 gross acres located northeast of Calgary in southeastern Alberta; and its 90%-owned Princess Area covering an area of 18,612 gross acres located northwest of Medicine Hat in southern Alberta. Prairie Provident Resources Inc. is headquartered in Calgary, Canada.
Company description, as reported by the company or data provider.
Revenue & earnings trend
FY2021 – FY2025 · reported fiscal years
Prairie Provident Resources Inc reported revenue of C$36.9M in FY2025 versus C$74.8M in FY2021, a compound −16.2%/yr. Reported net income was −C$14.1M in FY2025.
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Peer Group
Oil & Gas E&P · 316 stocks
How this stock ranks against its industry: the green marker is this stock, the band is the typical 25–75% peer range, and the tick is the median.
Valuation Multiples vs Oil & Gas E&P median · lower = cheaper
Snowflake
Five quick dimensions, each 0 to 100: VALUE (fair-value potential), FUTURE (revenue growth), PAST (return on equity), HEALTH (low debt), DIVIDEND (yield). Green = this stock, grey = typical sector peer.
PAST 0: with negative equity (buybacks among others) return on equity is not meaningfully computable.
Insider activity: 30/100
Values & ESG
Does this company touch areas you may want to avoid? The classification is inferred from sector and industry.
ESG scores are not available for this stock yet. Values and ESG data are contextual and can differ between providers.
Similar stocks
10 more Oil & Gas E&P stocks, each showing price versus our Fair Value estimate (as of Jun 23, 2026).
| Stock | Price | Fair Value | vs Fair Value |
|---|---|---|---|
| CNOOC Limited 600938 | ¥28.97 | ¥32.55 | +12% |
| ConocoPhillips explores for, COP | $109.04 | $91.79 | -16% |
| Canadian Natural Resources Limited CNQ | $42.86 | $31.54 | -26% |
| EOG Resources, Inc EOG | $139.89 | $130.19 | -7% |
| Occidental Petroleum Corporation OXY | $54.86 | $30.68 | -44% |
| Diamondback Energy, Inc FANG | $183.39 | $106.12 | -42% |
| Devon Energy Corporation DVN | $43.83 | $27.06 | -38% |
| Woodside Energy Group WDS | A$30.46 | A$20.71 | -32% |
| EQT Corporation EQT | $48.85 | $42.85 | -12% |
| Texas Pacific Land Corporation TPL | $415.70 | $79.20 | -81% |
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Frequently asked questions
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How we calculate Fair Value
Each company is valued through a stack of independent intrinsic-value models (DCF variants, residual-income, multiples and more), blended into one family-balanced consensus and weighted by how much trustworthy data backs it. A separate quality layer scores the fundamentals. Every input is real reported data, nothing guessed.
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