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Data-driven stock valuation

Shell plc (R6C) fair value: what the stock is really worth

We calculate from audited financials what Shell plc is really worth. The fair value tells you whether the price is too high or too low, the quality score (0 to 100) how solid the business behind it is. 26 models, 37 quality factors, updated daily, free.

  1. Compare price with fair valuebelow fair value = cheap, above = expensive
  2. Check the quality50 and up solid, 75 and up strong
  3. Watch it or check another stockalert when fair value or trend changes

Energy · DE · Market cap €174B

At a glance

SP Shell plc R6C · XETRA
Price from Aug 20, 2026€40.29
Fair Value€58.52
Upside+45.3%
Quality67/100

A solid business, trading 31% below our fair value of €58.52.

As of Sep 2, 2026, the fair value of Shell plc is €58.52 per share against a price of €40.29, so the fair value sits 45% above the price. A model estimate from reported figures, not an analyst target.

!Weak Growth (revenue 5y +2.3 %/yr)
!Thin margins · 2.1% net margin
Low debt · generates free cash flow
·2.04% dividend yield
!Trails peers (4/15)
!Narrow moat 24/100
!Weak on past: 12 out of 100
Evidence: High Range €41.05 to €74.06

Fair value as of: Sep 2, 2026

From 24 valuation models · updated 5 days ago

Fair value updated Sep 2, 2026, revised from €58.13 to €58.52 (+0.7%) since Aug 27, 2026. Share price +5.5% over the past month.

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What runs behind every stock

69 individual criteria per stock, every one traceable See the method →

What matters now

  • Solid quality (67/100) at a price below fair value, the discount is the argument here, not the business quality.
  • A fairly wide model range (€41.05 to €74.06) leaves room in how you read the outcome.

Price vs Fair Value (5 years)

€41.04 €15.36 Fair Value €58.52 Jun 2021 Aug 2026

White line = price, green steps = our fair value per fiscal year, dashed = 300-day average. As of Sep 2, 2026.

How to read this chart

60‑month range €15.36 – €41.04 · fair‑value band €41.05 – €74.06 · the €40.29 price screens below the €58.52 fair value. Green steps = our fair value per fiscal year (point-in-time, no hindsight). Dashed = 300-day average. As of Sep 2, 2026.

Full chart & analysis →

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Analysis

Shell plc (R6C) currently trades at €40.29, while our model-based Fair Value estimate is €58.52, implying the stock looks roughly 31.2% undervalued today. The Quality Score stands at 67/100 (solid quality), in the Energy sector. Bull case: the Growth DCF group reads highest at a median of €70.16 per share, and 19 of the 24 models we run sit above the €40.29 price. Bear case: the Dividend Discount group reads lowest at €15.88, and 5 of the 24 models stay below the price. Evidence for this calculation is high.

Over the trailing twelve months, Shell plc generated revenue of €220B at a net margin of 2.1%. Revenue grew 36.4% year over year. It earns a return on equity of 3.1%. Net debt stands at €52.1B. Fundamentals as of Sep 2, 2026

Scenario range: €41.05 (bear) to €74.06 (bull), the price of €40.29 sits below it. Bear and bull are the same models on cautious and optimistic assumptions, a range, not a price target. For context, the median of 10 Energy peers we cover trades at −28% fair-value upside, at 45%, R6C screens cheaper than that median.

Fair Value models

Each model values the company its own way; the fair value above is the evidence-weighted blend. Evidence (0 to 100) shows how complete a model's inputs are. How we calculate →

Model Bear Bear = the cautious scenario: the same model computed with conservative anchors (lower growth, margins and valuation multiples). Together with Bull it frames a plausible valuation range, not a price target.BaseBull Bull = the optimistic scenario: the same model computed with favourable anchors (higher growth, margins and valuation multiples). Together with Bear it frames a plausible valuation range, not a price target. Evidence
Highest evidence
FCF DCF best evidence €58.05 €81.14 €126.12 80
Growth DCF €60.76 €83.30 €123.62 78
Owner Earnings €62.68 €87.46 €135.75 76
All 24 models by family
DCF Models
FCF DCF best evidence €58.05 €81.14 €126.12 80
Owner Earnings €62.68 €87.46 €135.75 76
5Y Revenue Exit €47.19 €68.71 €100.68 72
5Y EBITDA Exit €47.73 €69.63 €99.33 75
5Y P/E Exit €46.39 €67.33 €93.04 71
10Y Revenue Exit €49.58 €67.66 €87.48 68
10Y EBITDA Exit €51.23 €68.25 €86.65 70
10Y P/E Exit €50.41 €66.78 €82.74 65
Earnings-Based
Graham-Dodd €33.33 €48.59 €57.32 67
EPV €25.38 €30.44 €34.87 74
Dividend Discount
Gordon GGM €14.00 €15.88 €18.27 69
DDM Multi-Stage €14.00 €18.19 €23.65 67
Multiples
P/E Multiple €51.46 €68.62 €85.77 63
P/S Multiple €57.39 €76.51 €95.64 58
P/B Multiple €56.61 €75.47 €94.34 55
EV/EBIT €35.74 €49.32 €62.91 66
EV/EBITDA €48.98 €66.98 €84.97 67
EV/Revenue €44.43 €65.62 €86.81 53
Asset-Based
NCAV (Graham) €20.97 €28.09 €41.93 54
Growth DCF
Growth DCF €60.76 €83.30 €123.62 78
Rev-Margin DCF €47.19 €70.16 €99.13 73
Economic Profit
Residual Income €38.53 €45.12 €86.90 72
ROIC Compounder €25.38 €30.44 €34.87 72
Growth Earnings
Growth-Adj P/E €37.03 €52.89 €68.76 67

Widest divergence: Growth DCF (€70.16) versus Dividend Discount (€15.88). Highest evidence: FCF DCF (80).

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Key figures & financial health

P/E ratio 42.7 as of Aug 12, 2026
P/S ratio 3.28 P/E × margin
EPS (TTM) €0.5330 price ÷ EPS = P/E 42.7
Dividend yield 2.0% payout 154%
Net margin 7.7% FY2021
Return on equity 3.1% TTM
More key figures
Profitability
Return on assets (EBIT) 3.2% avg 5y
Operating margin −4.0% TTM
Growth
Revenue (TTM) €220B TTM
Revenue growth (YoY) +36.4% 3y avg −12.4%
EPS growth (YoY) −91.8%
Balance sheet & cash flow
Free cash flow €26.1B FY2021
Net debt €52.1B FY2021 · ≈ 2.0 yrs of FCF

Figures from reported company fundamentals · as of Sep 2, 2026. TTM = trailing twelve months.

Quality Score breakdown

Overall quality 67/100

Of which business quality 65 · Market factors (momentum, volatility) 66

Profitability 38
Margins and returns on capital today
Quality Growth 100
Are margins and returns improving?
Cashflow 63
Earnings quality: real cash, not paper profit
Fin. Strength 43
Balance sheet, leverage, solvency risk
Investment 90
Disciplined investing over empire-building
Low Volatility 71
Calm price path (market factor)
Momentum 62
Price trend over the last 3–12 months (market factor)
52W Momentum 66
Distance to the 52-week high (market factor)
Net Issuance 88
Buybacks instead of dilution

Non-valuation factor families (profitability, growth, cashflow, financial strength, momentum …), each academically grounded. Valuation itself sits in the Fair Value and is deliberately excluded here to avoid double-counting.

All values are scores from 0 to 100 (100 = best against fixed, research-based bands), not percentages. The three market factors (momentum, 52-week proximity, low volatility) are displayed but carry zero weight in the headline number: market sentiment is not a business property.

About the company

Shell plc operates as an energy and petrochemical company worldwide. The company operates through Integrated Gas, Upstream, Oil Products, Chemicals segments.

Full company description

Shell plc operates as an energy and petrochemical company worldwide. The company operates through Integrated Gas, Upstream, Oil Products, Chemicals segments. It explores for and extracts crude oil, natural gas, and natural gas liquids; markets and transports oil and gas; produces gas-to-liquids fuels and other products; and operates upstream and midstream infrastructure necessary to deliver gas to market. The company also markets and trades natural gas, liquefied natural gas (LNG), crude oil, electricity, carbon-emission rights; and markets and sells LNG as a fuel for heavy-duty vehicles and marine vessels. In addition, it trades in and refines crude oil and other feed stocks, such as gasoline, diesel, heating oil, aviation fuel, marine fuel, biofuel, lubricants, bitumen, and sulphur; produces and sells petrochemicals for industrial use; and manages oil sands activities. Further, the company produces base chemicals comprising ethylene, propylene, and aromatics, as well as intermediate chemicals, such as styrene monomer, propylene oxide, solvents, detergent alcohols, ethylene oxide, and ethylene glycol. The company was formerly known as Royal Dutch Shell plc and changed its name to Shell plc in January 2022. Shell plc was founded in 1907 and is headquartered in The Hague, the Netherlands.

Company description, as reported by the company or data provider.

Revenue & earnings trend

FY2017 – FY2021 · reported fiscal years

Shell plc reported revenue of $262B in FY2021 versus $305B in FY2017, a compound −3.8%/yr. Reported net income was $20.1B in FY2021, compounding +11.6%/yr from FY2017.

Growth Quality 40/100
Revenue growth is weak, negative or inconsistent.
Latest Revenue (FY 2021)
€262B
Latest YoY
+44.8%
Avg. revenue growth/yr (3Y) Measures the company's TOTAL revenue from reported annual statements: compound average growth per year (CAGR) from the fiscal year 3, 5 or N years back to the most recent comparable fiscal year. Not per share: buybacks do not change this number, and a merger can appear as a growth jump.
−12.4%
Avg. revenue growth/yr (5Y) Measures the company's TOTAL revenue from reported annual statements: compound average growth per year (CAGR) from the fiscal year 3, 5 or N years back to the most recent comparable fiscal year. Not per share: buybacks do not change this number, and a merger can appear as a growth jump.
+2.3%
Avg. revenue growth/yr (23Y) Measures the company's TOTAL revenue from reported annual statements: compound average growth per year (CAGR) from the fiscal year 3, 5 or N years back to the most recent comparable fiscal year. Not per share: buybacks do not change this number, and a merger can appear as a growth jump.
+4.6%
Value creation/yr (5Y) Earnings growth per share (CAGR 5 years, adjusted) plus dividend yield: value created per share and year.
+20.3%
Earnings growth per share plus dividend yield: the value created per share and year.
Earnings growth per share+18.3%
Dividend yield2.0%
Trend Two data points, not a trend model: earnings growth per share over the last 5 fiscal years against the last 10. Labelled "steady" when both rates are within 3 percentage points of each other, otherwise picking up or flattening. Shown only when ten years of history exist.5Y 33.9% vs 10Y −5.2%, picking up
Operating margin (EBIT) Operating margin then vs now, from reported annual statements. A falling margin after a boom year is the classic peak-earnings signal: the growth rate then leans on an inflated base.1.0% (2016) → 8.5% (2021) · rising
Worst earnings drop116% (2020) (loss year, drop beyond 100%) · in EUR
⚠ Revenue per share shrinking 6.2%/yr over ~10Y (margins eroding too) Structural-decline marker: revenue PER SHARE has fallen over the last decade (robust median trend, not a single year). Backtested across 2005 to 2017, such businesses trailed the market by about 2.5 percentage points per year. Display only: it does not change the fair value or the quality score.
Revenue −3.8%/yr
FY17 $305B
FY18 $388B
FY19 $345B
FY20 $181B
FY21 $262B
Net income +11.6%/yr
FY17 $13.0B
FY18 $23.4B
FY19 $15.8B
FY20 −$21.7B
FY21 $20.1B
Character of growth · EPS growth decomposed (2010-2021) −6.7 % p.a.
Revenue per share −6.8 %

of which total revenue −4.0 % · buybacks/dilution −2.9 %

EBIT margin −1.9 %
Tax rate +2.0 %
Residual (interest, one-offs) −0.1 %

Annual growth per factor. These are factors, not summands: multiplied they give the EPS growth rate, added they do not quite. Start and end points are 3-year averages (details on hover).

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Cite: Fair Value Calculator (2026). "Shell plc Fair Value". https://www.fairvalue-calculator.com/stock/R6C

Peer Group

Oil & Gas Integrated · 53 stocks

How this stock ranks against its industry: the green marker is this stock, the band is the typical 25–75% peer range, and the tick is the median.

Valuation
Quality Score 67 · Top 25%
Fair Value upside −1% · Above median
Profitability
Return on equity (TTM) 3% · Bottom 25%
Return on assets −1% · Bottom 25%
Net margin (TTM) 2% · Bottom 25%
Operating margin (TTM) −4% · Bottom 25%
Growth and dividend
Revenue growth 36% · Top 25%
Dividend yield (TTM) 2.0% · Bottom 25%
Balance sheet
Debt / equity 0.33× · Above median

Valuation Multiples vs Oil & Gas Integrated median · lower = cheaper

P/E (TTM) 42.7× · Priciest 25%
P/B 1.18× · Cheaper than median
P/S (TTM) 0.92× · Pricier than median
P/FCF 7.8× · Pricier than median
EV/EBITDA 7.3× · Priciest 25%
PEG 1.43× · Pricier than median

What the price implies (reverse DCF)

The inverse question: what free-cash-flow growth must Shell plc deliver for ten years so that today's price is fair in our DCF model? Same formula, same discount rate as the fair value.

Implied FCF growth, 10 years-19.8 % per year
Achieved revenue growth, 5 years+2.3 % p.a.
Sector median revenue growth+1.5 %
FCF yield on price40.20 %
Discount rate (WACC) in the models8.6 %

The price demands less growth than the company recently delivered: even a weaker business would justify the price. Ranking of the largest stocks →

Context: sector, industry, market

Strength profile in five axes (Snowflake)

Five quick dimensions, each 0 to 100: VALUE (fair-value potential), FUTURE (revenue growth), PAST (return on equity), HEALTH (low debt), DIVIDEND (yield). Green = this stock, grey = typical sector peer.

VALUEFUTUREPASTHEALTHDIVIDEND
This stock
VALUEFUTUREPASTHEALTHDIVIDEND
Sector peers
VALUE32 · sector 5
FUTURE100 · sector 12
PAST12 · sector 43
HEALTH83 · sector 86
DIVIDEND41 · sector 75

Values & ESG

Does this company touch areas you may want to avoid? The classification is inferred from sector and industry.

Oil & gas

Similar stocks

10 more Oil & Gas Integrated stocks, each showing price versus our Fair Value estimate (as of Sep 2, 2026).

Stock Price Fair Value vs Fair Value
Exxon Mobil Corporation XOM $159.47 $88.98 −44%
Chevron Corporation CVX $208.60 $90.66 −57%
PetroChina Company 601857 ¥11.17 ¥15.47 +38%
TotalEnergies SE TOTB €75.55 €69.02 −9%
Petróleo Brasileiro S.A XPBRA €7.74 €2.06 −73%
China Petroleum & Chemical Corporation 600028 ¥5.52 ¥4.59 −17%
Equinor ASA EQNR kr 395.90 kr 338.01 −15%
Suncor Energy Inc SU C$94.21 C$59.11 −37%
Eni S.p.A E $55.12 $32.53 −41%
Imperial Oil Limited IMO $130.51 $94.61 −28%

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Frequently asked questions

Is Shell plc (R6C) overvalued or undervalued?
As of Sep 2, 2026, our model estimates a fair value of €58.52 versus the last price from Aug 20, 2026 of €40.29, about +45% upside (undervalued).
What is the fair value of R6C?
Our model-based fair value for Shell plc is €58.52 (as of Sep 2, 2026), built from audited fundamentals. Last price (from Aug 20, 2026): €40.29.
What is the quality score of R6C?
Shell plc has a Quality Score of 67/100. It measures business quality (profitability, growth, cash flow, balance-sheet strength, investment discipline, share issuance). Market factors such as price momentum and volatility do not enter the number; they are shown separately in the detail view.
What is the price target for Shell plc (R6C)?
Our model-based price target is the fair value of €58.52 (as of Sep 2, 2026) from 24 valuation models. Cautious scenario €41.05, optimistic scenario €74.06. It is a calculation from audited fundamentals, not an analyst target.
What is the Shell plc stock forecast for 2026?
Our models put fair value at €58.52, about +45% upside versus the last price from Aug 20, 2026 of €40.29 (undervalued). Cautious scenario €41.05, optimistic scenario €74.06. The calculation is refreshed regularly with new filings.
What is the revenue of Shell plc (R6C)?
Shell plc reported trailing-twelve-month revenue of about €220B (latest available figure, as of Sep 2, 2026).
What is the net profit margin of R6C?
The net profit margin of Shell plc is about 2.1%, meaning it keeps roughly 2.1% of revenue as net income. Based on the latest reported figures.
Does Shell plc pay a dividend?
Shell plc currently shows a dividend yield of about 2.04% relative to its recent price (as of Sep 2, 2026).
What growth is priced into Shell plc (R6C)?
For today's price to be fair in a discounted-cash-flow model, Shell plc would have to grow free cash flow by -19.8 % per year for ten years (discount rate 8.6 %, then 2 % perpetual growth). Over the last 5 years revenue grew +2.3 % per year. As of Sep 2, 2026.
What discount rate (WACC) does the fair value of R6C use?
Our models discount Shell plc at 8.6 %: a base by market capitalisation (mega), damped by beta 1.04. The same rate applies in all 26 models.
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