Shell plc (R6C) fair value: what the stock is really worth
As of Aug 20, 2026: fair value of Shell plc €57.64, price €40.29, upside +43.1%, quality 68 out of 100. Calculated from audited financials with 26 valuation models and 37 quality factors, updated daily.
69 individual criteria per stock, every one traceableSee the method →
Price vs Fair Value
White line = price, green steps = our fair value per fiscal year, dashed = 300-day average. As of Oct 13, 2026.
How to read this chart
60‑month range €15.36 – €41.04 · fair‑value band €42.39 – €72.05 · the €40.29 price screens below the €57.64 fair value. Green steps = our fair value per fiscal year (point-in-time, no hindsight). Dashed = 300-day average. As of Oct 13, 2026.
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Shell plc operates as an energy and petrochemical company worldwide. The company operates through Integrated Gas, Upstream, Oil Products, Chemicals segments.
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It explores for and extracts crude oil, natural gas, and natural gas liquids; markets and transports oil and gas; produces gas-to-liquids fuels and other products; and operates upstream and midstream infrastructure necessary to deliver gas to market.
The company also markets and trades natural gas, liquefied natural gas (LNG), crude oil, electricity, carbon-emission rights; and markets and sells LNG as a fuel for heavy-duty vehicles and marine vessels.
In addition, it trades in and refines crude oil and other feed stocks, such as gasoline, diesel, heating oil, aviation fuel, marine fuel, biofuel, lubricants, bitumen, and sulphur; produces and sells petrochemicals for industrial use; and manages oil sands activities.
Further, the company produces base chemicals comprising ethylene, propylene, and aromatics, as well as intermediate chemicals, such as styrene monomer, propylene oxide, solvents, detergent alcohols, ethylene oxide, and ethylene glycol.
The company was formerly known as Royal Dutch Shell plc and changed its name to Shell plc in January 2022. Shell plc was founded in 1907 and is headquartered in The Hague, the Netherlands.
Stock analysis
Shell plc (R6C) currently trades at €40.29, while our model-based Fair Value estimate is €57.64, implying the stock looks roughly 30.1% undervalued today.
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Valuation
Bull case: the Growth DCF group reads highest at a median of €62.44 per share, and 18 of the 24 models we run sit above the €40.29 price.
Bear case: the Dividend Discount group reads lowest at €14.13, and 6 of the 24 models stay below the price. Data coverage for this calculation is high.
Scenario range: €42.39 (bear) to €72.05 (bull), the price of €40.29 sits below it. Bear and bull are the same models on cautious and optimistic assumptions, a range, not a price target.
Quality & growth
The Quality Score stands at 68/100 (solid quality), in the Energy sector.
Weak Growth: Revenue growth is inconsistent: the periods point in different directions, so there is no trend to rely on.
Shell plc reported revenue of $262B in FY2021 versus $305B in FY2017, a compound −3.8%/yr. Reported net income was $20.1B in FY2021, compounding +11.6%/yr from FY2017.
Key figures
Market cap €174B · P/E ratio 42.7 · P/S ratio 3.28 · EPS (TTM) €0.5330 · Dividend yield 2.0% · Net margin 7.7% · Return on equity 3.1% · Return on assets (EBIT) 3.2%.
Competitive moat
Our AI-assisted moat analysis scores the competitive advantage at 28 out of 100 (medium confidence).
What moves the price
The share trades about 2% below its 52-week high and 36% above its 52-week low, currently above its 200-day average.
For context, the median of 10 Energy peers we cover trades at −13% fair-value upside, at 43%, R6C screens cheaper than that median.
Fair Value models
Bear€42.39Fair Value €57.64Bull€72.05
Price €40.29 · Upside +43.1%
Model ⓘEach model values the company its own way (discounted cash flow, earnings, assets, dividends). The fair value above is their evidence-weighted blend, not the output of a single model.Bear ⓘBear = the cautious scenario: the same model computed with conservative anchors (lower growth, margins and valuation multiples). Together with Bull it frames a plausible valuation range, not a price target.BaseBull ⓘBull = the optimistic scenario: the same model computed with favourable anchors (higher growth, margins and valuation multiples). Together with Bear it frames a plausible valuation range, not a price target. If a model's bull case is above four times its base value, the table shows that limit with a > sign (like the overall Bull above): beyond it no assumption holds.Coverage ⓘCoverage = how well-backed THIS model's estimate is for this stock (0–100): how complete and reliable its input data are, and how well the model fits the company. The final Fair Value is an evidence-weighted blend, so better-evidenced models count more. Green ≥70, amber 50–69, grey below 50.
Growth Quality ⓘGrowth is valuable only when reinvestment earns attractive returns (Aswath Damodaran): sustainable growth depends on return on capital, reinvestment and efficiency. Basis: total company revenue over the periods shown on the cards (3Y/5Y/all years), not per share, so a merger can show up as a growth jump; per-share earnings growth is in the value-creation card.40/100
Revenue growth is inconsistent: the periods point in different directions, so there is no trend to rely on.
Revenue growth 1 year
+44.8%
Revenue growth 3 years ⓘMeasures the company's TOTAL revenue from reported annual statements: compound average growth per year (CAGR) from the fiscal year 3, 5 or N years back to the most recent comparable fiscal year. Not per share: buybacks do not change this number, and a merger can appear as a growth jump. Per-share growth (which does include buybacks) is in the value-creation card.
−12.4%
Revenue growth 5 years ⓘMeasures the company's TOTAL revenue from reported annual statements: compound average growth per year (CAGR) from the fiscal year 3, 5 or N years back to the most recent comparable fiscal year. Not per share: buybacks do not change this number, and a merger can appear as a growth jump. Per-share growth (which does include buybacks) is in the value-creation card.
+2.3%
Revenue growth 23 years ⓘMeasures the company's TOTAL revenue from reported annual statements: compound average growth per year (CAGR) from the fiscal year 3, 5 or N years back to the most recent comparable fiscal year. Not per share: buybacks do not change this number, and a merger can appear as a growth jump. Per-share growth (which does include buybacks) is in the value-creation card.
+4.6%
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What shareholders gained per year (last 5 years) ⓘWhat the business itself delivers per year: earnings growth per share plus the dividend yield. This is what you get IF the market keeps valuing the stock the same way: it contains no assumption about the market changing its mind. Computed per share, so buybacks count and a merger does not pass as growth. For a company that pays no dividend it is pure earnings growth per share. Period: earnings growth per share as CAGR over the last 5 reported fiscal years (annual statements), plus the current dividend yield. The start value is the median of the three years around the start, so a single crisis year (a pandemic or a write-down) does not distort the rate. Basis: adjusted.
+19.6%
Earnings growth per share plus dividend.
Earnings per share, growth per year+17.6%
Dividend (yield on the price)2.0%
Pace: 5 vs 10 years ⓘTwo data points, not a trend model: earnings growth per share over the last 5 fiscal years against the last 10. Labelled "steady" when both rates are within 3 percentage points of each other, otherwise picking up or flattening. Shown only when ten years of history exist.33.9% vs −5.2%, picking up
Profit margin 2016 to 2021 ⓘOperating margin then vs now, from reported annual statements. A falling margin after a boom year is the classic peak-earnings signal: the growth rate then leans on an inflated base.1% → 9%
⚠ Revenue per share shrinking 6.2%/yr over ~10Y (margins eroding too) ⓘStructural-decline marker: revenue PER SHARE has fallen over the last decade (robust median trend, not a single year). Backtested across 2005 to 2017, such businesses trailed the market by about 2.5 percentage points per year. Display only: it does not change the fair value or the quality score.
Growth Forecast
Little optimism in the price
The price assumes less growth than the company has delivered so far.
What the price assumes ⓘThis turns our valuation around: instead of asking what the share is worth, it asks what growth the current price requires. It uses the cash the company keeps after all spending (free cash flow), the same discount rate as our models, five years of growth, then slowing evenly to 2 % a year by year ten. Compared with the analysts' sales forecasts extended to the same five years (at least three analysts, for context only, it does not enter the Fair Value): within 3 percentage points counts as "in line" (amber), below that little optimism (green), above that a lot of optimism (red).
−21.9%
The company could shrink this much every year for the next five years and today's price would still be justified.
What forecasts expect
n/a
No analyst forecast available.
After inflation (figures in USD, USA: IMF forecast 2.4% a year to 2030, 3.1% from 2016 to 2025) that is about −23.7% a year for the price.
Price, fair value, quality and upside side by side.
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Peer GroupⓘHow this stock ranks against its industry: the green marker is this stock, the band is the typical 25–75% peer range, and the tick is the median.Oil & Gas Integrated · 43 stocks
Beats the industry median on 7/15 measures
A mixed picture versus its industry peers.
Valuation
Quality Score68 · Top 25%
Fair Value upside−14.3% · Above median
Profitability
Return on equity (12 months)3.1% · Bottom 25%
Return on assets5.0% · Above median
Net margin (12 months)2.1% · Bottom 25%
Operating margin (12 months)−4.0% · Bottom 25%
Growth and dividend
Revenue growth36.4% · Above median
Dividend yield (12 months)2.0% · Bottom 25%
Balance sheet
Debt / equity0.33× · Above median
Valuation Multiplesvs Oil & Gas Integrated median · lower = cheaper
For bloggers, editors and developers: paste this into your site or blog (a “Custom HTML” block in WordPress), it shows the current fair value and links back here. Free, plain HTML, and welcome. Full data streams (CSV/JSON) at /developers.
Cite: Fair Value Calculator (2026). "Shell plc Fair Value". https://www.fairvalue-calculator.com/stock/R6C
Frequently asked questions
Is Shell plc (R6C) overvalued or undervalued?
As of Oct 13, 2026, our model estimates a fair value of €57.64 versus the last price from Aug 20, 2026 of €40.29, about +43% upside (undervalued).
What is the fair value of R6C?
Our model-based fair value for Shell plc is €57.64 (as of Oct 13, 2026), built from audited fundamentals. Last price (from Aug 20, 2026): €40.29.
What is the quality score of R6C?
Shell plc has a Quality Score of 68/100. It measures business quality (profitability, growth, cash flow, balance-sheet strength, investment discipline, share issuance). Market factors such as price momentum and volatility do not enter the number; they are shown separately in the detail view.
What is the price target for Shell plc (R6C)?
Our model-based price target is the fair value of €57.64 (as of Oct 13, 2026) from 24 valuation models. Cautious scenario €42.39, optimistic scenario €72.05. It is a calculation from audited fundamentals, not an analyst target.
What is the Shell plc stock forecast for 2026?
Our models put fair value at €57.64, about +43% upside versus the last price from Aug 20, 2026 of €40.29 (undervalued). Cautious scenario €42.39, optimistic scenario €72.05. The calculation is refreshed regularly with new filings.
What is the revenue of Shell plc (R6C)?
Shell plc reported trailing-twelve-month revenue of about $220B (latest available figure, as of Oct 13, 2026).
Does Shell plc pay a dividend?
Shell plc currently shows a dividend yield of about 2.04% relative to its recent price (as of Oct 13, 2026).
What growth is priced into Shell plc (R6C)?
For today's price to be fair in a discounted-cash-flow model, Shell plc would have to grow free cash flow by -21.9 % per year for five years (discount rate 9.1 %, then slowing evenly to 2 % perpetual growth by year ten). Over the last 5 years revenue grew +2.3 % per year. As of Oct 13, 2026.
What discount rate (WACC) does the fair value of R6C use?
Our models discount Shell plc at 9.1 %: a base by market capitalisation (large), damped by beta 1.05, country premium for Germany. The same rate applies in all 26 models.
What is a reverse DCF?
A reverse DCF turns the usual calculation around. Instead of deriving a value from assumptions, it takes today's price as given and asks: what free-cash-flow growth would a company have to deliver for exactly this price to be fair? The result is not a forecast but the expectation already priced in. For Shell plc that is -21.9 % per year a year over ten years, using the same discount rate (9.1 %) and the same formula as our fair value.
How much growth has Shell plc (R6C) delivered so far?
Over the past 5 years revenue at Shell plc grew +2.3 % a year. The price currently implies -21.9 % per year free-cash-flow growth a year. Comparing the two shows how much confidence is in the price: if it demands more than has been delivered, the business has to accelerate for the maths to work.
How fast is the sector of Shell plc (R6C) growing?
The median revenue growth in the sector is +11.6 % a year. That is the yardstick for the growth priced into Shell plc (-21.9 % per year a year): it shows whether the expectation is within the usual range or beyond it.
What is the free cash flow yield of Shell plc (R6C)?
The free-cash-flow yield on the price is 35.76 %: that much free cash flow Shell plc produces per unit of market value. When it exceeds the discount rate of our models (9.1 %), the business already earns more than its cost of capital demands, and the price needs little additional growth.
What is the intrinsic value of Shell plc (R6C)?
Intrinsic value and fair value mean the same thing: what the business is worth on its numbers, independent of the share price. For Shell plc it is €57.64 per share (as of Oct 13, 2026), against a price of €40.29. It is the blended result of 24 valuation models (cash flow, earnings, asset, dividend).
Is Shell plc stock overvalued or undervalued in 2026?
As of Oct 13, 2026, R6C trades below its calculated fair value: price €40.29, fair value €57.64, a gap of about +43% (undervalued). The calculation is refreshed with each new quarterly report, so the verdict can change during the year.
Is fair value the same as the market price of R6C?
No. The price is what the market pays today (€40.29); the fair value is what the company's own numbers justify (€57.64). For Shell plc the two are €17.35 per share apart. That gap is exactly why we show both numbers side by side.
How much is Shell plc worth?
The market values Shell plc at about €174B (market capitalisation, as of Oct 13, 2026). Per share that is €40.29; our models calculate a fair value of €57.64 per share.
What do the bullish and bearish scenarios say about R6C?
Our models span a range for Shell plc: cautious scenario €42.39, base €57.64, optimistic €72.05 per share (as of Oct 13, 2026, price €40.29). The range comes from different growth and margin assumptions, not from analyst opinions.
What is the P/E ratio of R6C?
Shell plc trades at a price-to-earnings ratio of 42.7 (as of Oct 13, 2026). A P/E on its own says little: it compares the price with ONE year of profit, while our fair value of €57.64 is built from several models across several years. Excluding one-off items of fiscal year 2021 it is 3.2 (reported 42.7). Other multiples: PEG 1.4, P/B 1.1, P/S 0.9, EV/EBITDA 7.0.
What is the PEG ratio of R6C?
The PEG ratio of Shell plc is 1.43 (P/E divided by earnings growth, as of Oct 13, 2026). That is above 1, so the growth is already paid for in the price.
How solid is the balance sheet of Shell plc (R6C)?
Balance-sheet figures for Shell plc (as of Oct 13, 2026): return on equity 3.1%, debt of 0.33 per unit of equity. They feed the Quality Score of 68/100, which measures business quality independently of the share price.
How far is R6C from its 52-week high?
Shell plc trades at €40.29, about 2% below its 52-week high of €41.04 and 36% above the low of €29.64 (as of Aug 20, 2026). Distance from the high says nothing about value: that is what the fair value of €57.64 is for.
Which stocks are comparable to Shell plc?
From the same area (Energy) we also value Saudi Arabian Oil Company, Exxon Mobil Corporation, Chevron Corporation, PetroChina Company, among others. Each of them has its own fair-value calculation on this site using the same models, so the comparison is like for like.
Is Shell plc stock attractive at the current price?
The data as of Oct 13, 2026: price €40.29, calculated fair value €57.64 (+43%), Quality Score 68/100, from 24 models. Whether that fits your horizon and risk tolerance is your call. We provide the calculation, not investment advice.
How is the fair value of R6C calculated?
We run Shell plc through 24 models from four families: discounted cash flow, earnings models, asset and balance-sheet models, and dividend models. Every model gets the same audited fundamentals; the result is the weighted average of €57.64, with the spread shown as a cautious and an optimistic scenario.
Is it still worth investing in stocks now?
The global stock market currently sits 14.4 % above its aggregate fair value. Shell plc currently trades 30 % below its own fair value, and the market average says nothing about that. An expensive market is no reason to stay out and no reason to buy everything at once: keep a broad savings plan running, buy single stocks only with money you can do without, and hold part of your money liquid while the market is high. The full picture including sectors is on is it worth investing now.
What is the share price of Shell plc (R6C)?
The latest price we hold is from Aug 20, 2026 and stands at €40.29. Our model-based fair value is €57.64, about +43% upside (undervalued). We carry closing prices from our data provider, not a live tick.
What should I pay attention to with Shell plc right now?
The price is below even our cautious bear case (€42.39). The market is more pessimistic than our downside scenario. Solid quality (68/100) at a price below fair value, the discount is the argument here, not the business quality.
Where does the earnings growth of Shell plc (R6C) come from?
Earnings per share at Shell plc grew −6.7 % a year from 2010 to 2021. Broken into its drivers: revenue per share −6.8 %, EBIT margin −1.9 %, tax rate +2.0 %, residual (interest, one-offs) −0.1 %. The four rates multiply to the earnings growth rate, they do not add up. Start and end are three-year averages so a single exceptional year does not distort the result.
Key figures of Shell plc
How large is the market capitalisation of Shell plc (R6C)?
The market capitalisation of Shell plc is €174B. The stock-market value of the whole company: share price times number of shares. It is what the market asks for the entire business today.
What is the P/S ratio of Shell plc (R6C)?
The price-to-sales ratio of Shell plc is 3.28 (P/E × margin). Price to sales: market value relative to yearly revenue. Useful when profit is thin or distorted.
What are the earnings per share of Shell plc (R6C)?
Earnings per share at Shell plc are €0.5330 (price ÷ EPS = P/E 42.7). Earnings per share over the last twelve months: total profit spread across every single share.
What is the dividend yield of Shell plc (R6C)?
The dividend yield of Shell plc is 2.0% (payout 27.4%, on adjusted earnings, reported 31.1%). Yearly dividend relative to the share price. 3% pays 3 per 100 invested. Below: how much of profit is used for it.
What is the net margin of Shell plc (R6C)?
The net margin of Shell plc is 7.7% (fiscal year 2021). How much of every unit of revenue ends up as profit. 10% means 10 cents of profit per dollar of sales.
What is the return on equity of Shell plc (R6C)?
The return on equity (ROE) of Shell plc is 3.1% (last twelve months). Profit relative to shareholders' equity, how efficiently the company works with its owners' money.
What is the EBIT return on assets of Shell plc (R6C)?
On an EBIT basis the return on assets of Shell plc is 3.2% (avg 5y). Operating profit (EBIT) relative to everything the company owns, as a multi-year average. It describes the business model rather than one good or bad year.
What is the operating margin of Shell plc (R6C)?
The operating margin of Shell plc is −4.0% (last twelve months). Profit from the core business (before interest and taxes) relative to revenue.
How fast is revenue growing at Shell plc (R6C)?
Revenue at Shell plc is growing +36.4% versus a year earlier (3y avg −12.4%). How much revenue grew versus a year earlier (YoY). The 3-year average next to it puts the single year in context.
How fast are earnings growing at Shell plc (R6C)?
Earnings per share at Shell plc are growing −91.8% versus a year earlier. How much earnings per share grew versus a year earlier.
How much net debt does Shell plc (R6C) carry?
The net debt of Shell plc is $52.1B (fiscal year 2021, ≈ 2.0 yrs of FCF). Debt minus cash on hand. The note shows how many years of free cash flow could in theory pay it off.
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Broad data
Oct 13, 2026