Raízen S.A. (RAIZ4) Fair Value & Analysis
Utilities · BR · Market cap R$3.4B (≈ $669M) · ISIN BRRAIZACNPR6
What is Raízen S.A. really worth?
Below-average quality, trading 64% below our fair value of R$0.7600.
Risks
Fair value as of: Aug 22, 2026
From 3 valuation models · updated 13 days ago
Fair value updated Aug 22, 2026, revised from R$0.8300 to R$0.7600 (−8.4%) since Aug 13, 2026. Share price −3.6% over the past month.
What runs behind every stock
69 individual criteria per stock, every one traceable See the method →
What matters now
- The large discount to fair value meets weak quality (40/100). That raises the risk this is a value trap rather than a bargain.
- The model range is unusually wide (R$0.1520 to R$1.97). The outcome hinges heavily on assumptions, so read the point estimate with caution.
- The large gap to fair value rests on thin data (low evidence): fewer applicable models and a shorter history. Read it with extra caution.
Price vs Fair Value (5 years)
White line = price, green steps = our fair value per fiscal year, dashed = 300-day average. As of Aug 22, 2026.
How to read this chart
60‑month range R$0.2200 – R$6.52 · fair‑value band R$0.1520 – R$1.97 · the R$0.2700 price screens below the R$0.7600 fair value. Dashed = 300-day average. As of Aug 22, 2026.
Analysis
Raízen S.A. (RAIZ4) currently trades at R$0.2700, while our model-based Fair Value estimate is R$0.7600, implying the stock looks roughly 64.5% undervalued today. The Quality Score stands at 40/100 (below-average quality), in the Utilities sector. How firm this estimate is: it rests on 3 models at a data quality of 96/100, which puts the evidence level at low.
Over the trailing twelve months, Raízen S.A. generated revenue of R$232B at a net margin of −9.6%. Revenue declined 9.7% year over year. Net debt stands at R$60.3B. Fundamentals as of Aug 22, 2026
Our scenario range runs from R$0.1520 (bear case) to R$1.97 (bull case); at R$0.2700, the current price sits within that range. Bear and bull are the same models run on conservative and optimistic assumptions (margins, growth, valuation multiples), so a plausible valuation range, not a price target. For context, the median of 10 Utilities peers we cover trades at −12% fair-value upside, at 181%, RAIZ4 screens cheaper than that median.
Fair Value models
Each model estimates fair value its own way; the Fair Value above is the evidence-weighted, family-balanced blend. Evidence (0–100) measures how completely this model’s inputs are available: well-fed models carry more weight in the blend. The spread across models is intentional, each one stresses a different value driver; dividend models, for instance, come out structurally low when payout is small. Every input is real reported data, nothing guessed.
All 3 models by family
Widest divergence: Multiples (R$0.7600) versus Dividend Discount (R$0.0027). Highest evidence: Gordon GGM (67).
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Key figures & financial health
More key figures
Figures from reported company fundamentals · as of Aug 22, 2026. TTM = trailing twelve months.
Quality Score breakdown
Of which business quality 37 · Market factors (momentum, volatility) 15
Non-valuation factor families (profitability, growth, cashflow, financial strength, momentum …), each academically grounded. Valuation itself sits in the Fair Value and is deliberately excluded here to avoid double-counting.
All values are scores from 0 to 100 (100 = best against fixed, research-based bands), not percentages. The three market factors (momentum, 52-week proximity, low volatility) are displayed but carry zero weight in the headline number: market sentiment is not a business property.
About the company
Raízen S.A. operates as an integrated energy company in Brazil, Argentina, rest of Latin America, North America, Asia, Europe, and internationally. The company trades in and markets fossil fuels and franchises network of service stations under the Shell brand name.
Full company description
Raízen S.A. operates as an integrated energy company in Brazil, Argentina, rest of Latin America, North America, Asia, Europe, and internationally. The company trades in and markets fossil fuels and franchises network of service stations under the Shell brand name. It also engages in the production, origination, marketing, and trading of ethanol and sugar; production and marketing of bioenergy, solar energy, and biogas; production and sale of automotive and industrial lubricants; and resale and marketing of electrical energy. In addition, the company provides financial products and services; port operation services; petroleum refining services; and equity interest in other companies. Further, it operates convenience and proximity stores. Raízen S.A. company was incorporated in 1961 and is headquartered in Rio de Janeiro, Brazil.
Company description, as reported by the company or data provider.
Revenue & earnings trend
FY2022 – FY2026 · reported fiscal years
Raízen S.A. reported revenue of R$226B in FY2026 versus R$191B in FY2022, a compound +4.2%/yr. Reported net income was −R$27.0B in FY2026.
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Peer Group
Utilities - Renewable · 219 stocks
How this stock ranks against its industry: the green marker is this stock, the band is the typical 25–75% peer range, and the tick is the median.
Strength profile in five axes (Snowflake)
Five quick dimensions, each 0 to 100: VALUE (fair-value potential), FUTURE (revenue growth), PAST (return on equity), HEALTH (low debt), DIVIDEND (yield). Green = this stock, grey = typical sector peer.
PAST 0: with negative equity (buybacks among others) return on equity is not meaningfully computable.
Values & ESG
Does this company touch areas you may want to avoid? The classification is inferred from sector and industry.
Similar stocks
10 more Utilities - Renewable stocks, each showing price versus our Fair Value estimate (as of Aug 22, 2026).
| Stock | Price | Fair Value | vs Fair Value |
|---|---|---|---|
| China Yangtze Power Co 600900 | ¥27.96 | ¥25.13 | −10% |
| Ørsted A/S ORSTED | kr 139.25 | kr 31.40 | −77% |
| Huaneng Lancang River Hydropower Inc 600025 | ¥9.79 | ¥5.57 | −43% |
| Adani Green Energy Limited ADANIGREEN | ₹1,319 | ₹169.61 | −87% |
| AXIA Energia SA AXIAP | $10.74 | $9.49 | −12% |
| VERBUND AG OEWA | €57.00 | €66.19 | +16% |
| BEPUN BEPUN | C$45.05 | C$42.83 | −5% |
| BEP BEP | $31.27 | $70.40 | +125% |
| Fortum Oyj FORTUM | €19.80 | €13.55 | −32% |
| China Longyuan Power Group 001289 | ¥15.92 | ¥7.55 | −53% |
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