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Data-driven stock valuation

Raízen S.A. (RAIZ4) fair value: what the stock is really worth

As of Oct 23, 2026: fair value (intrinsic value) of Raízen S.A. stock BRL 1.10, price BRL 0.43, upside +155.8%, quality 41 out of 100. Rating: strongly undervalued. Calculated from audited financials with 26 valuation models and 37 quality factors, updated daily.

  1. Fair value above price? Yes
  2. Good quality? No
  3. Keep an eye on it?Free in your watchlist: 5 stocks without an account, 10 with one Yes, for free

Utilities · BR · ISIN BRRAIZACNPR6

RS Raízen S.A. logo Thin data Oct 26, 2026

Raízen S.A.

RAIZ4 · SA

Cheap, value-trap riskThe stock looks deeply undervalued, but low quality raises value-trap risk.

The stock costs 61% less than our calculation considers fair.

Fair value R$1.10 · Strongly undervalued (61%)
Quality 41/100
Negative equity (buybacks among others)
Weak Growth (revenue 3y −2.8 %/yr in BRL)
Loss-making · -11.8% net margin (TTM)
Negative free cash flow
Trails peers (3/8)
Narrow moat 17/100 · thin data
Thin data
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What runs behind every stock

26 valuation models 8 families, DCF to NCAV 37 quality factors margins, balance sheet, cashflow, debt 6 AI factors moat, what no ratio measures 2,000+ data points verified, per stock, median

69 individual criteria per stock, every one traceable See the method →

Price vs Fair Value

R$6.52 R$0.2200 Fair Value R$1.10 Aug 2021 Oct 2026

White line = price, green steps = our fair value per fiscal year, dashed = 300-day average. As of Oct 26, 2026.

How to read this chart

60‑month range R$0.2200 – R$6.52 · fair‑value band R$0.2200 – R$2.83 · the R$0.4300 price screens below the R$1.10 fair value. Dashed = 300-day average. As of Oct 26, 2026.

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Company profile

Raízen S.A. operates as an integrated energy company in Brazil, Argentina, rest of Latin America, North America, Asia, Europe, and internationally. The company trades in and markets fossil fuels and franchises network of service stations under the Shell brand name.

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It also engages in the production, origination, marketing, and trading of ethanol and sugar; production and marketing of bioenergy, solar energy, and biogas; production and sale of automotive and industrial lubricants; and resale and marketing of electrical energy.

In addition, the company provides financial products and services; port operation services; petroleum refining services; and equity interest in other companies. Further, it operates convenience and proximity stores.

Raízen S.A. company was incorporated in 1961 and is headquartered in Rio de Janeiro, Brazil.

Stock analysis

Raízen S.A. (RAIZ4) currently trades at R$0.4300, while our model-based Fair Value estimate is R$1.10, implying the stock looks roughly 60.9% undervalued today.

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Valuation

How firm this estimate is: it rests on 3 models at a data quality of 95/100, which puts the data coverage at low.

Scenario range: R$0.2200 (bear) to R$2.83 (bull), the price of R$0.4300 sits inside it. Bear and bull are the same models on cautious and optimistic assumptions, a range, not a price target.

Quality & growth

The Quality Score stands at 41/100 (below-average quality), in the Utilities sector.

Weak Growth: Revenue growth is inconsistent: the periods point in different directions, so there is no trend to rely on.

Raízen S.A. reported revenue of R$226B in FY2026 versus R$191B in FY2022, a compound +4.2%/yr. Reported net income was −R$27.0B in FY2026.

Key figures

Market cap R$4.4B (≈ $889M) Small · EPS (TTM) R$−2.53 · Dividend yield 0.5% · Net margin −11.8% · Return on equity −840% · Return on assets (EBIT) 3.9% · Operating margin 4.3% · Revenue (TTM) R$228B.

Competitive moat

Our AI-assisted moat analysis scores the competitive advantage at 17 out of 100 (low confidence).

What moves the price

The share trades about 60% below its 52-week high and 95% above its 52-week low, currently below its 200-day average.

For context, the median of 10 Utilities peers we cover trades at −35% fair-value upside, at 156%, RAIZ4 screens cheaper than that median.

Fair Value models

Bear R$0.2200 Fair Value R$1.10 Bull R$2.83
Price R$0.4300 · Upside +155.8%
Model ⓘEach model values the company its own way (discounted cash flow, earnings, assets, dividends). The fair value above starts from their evidence-weighted blend, not from a single model. In cyclical trough or peak years, after dilution or a stock split it is adjusted afterwards, so it can sit above or below the models. Bear ⓘBear = the cautious scenario: the same model computed with conservative anchors (lower growth, margins and valuation multiples). Together with Bull it frames a plausible valuation range, not a price target.BaseBull ⓘBull = the optimistic scenario: the same model computed with favourable anchors (higher growth, margins and valuation multiples). Together with Bear it frames a plausible valuation range, not a price target. If a model's bull case is above four times its base value, the table shows that limit with a > sign (like the overall Bull above): beyond it no assumption holds. Coverage ⓘCoverage = how well-backed THIS model's estimate is for this stock (0–100): how complete and reliable its input data are, and how well the model fits the company. The final Fair Value is an evidence-weighted blend, so better-evidenced models count more. Green ≥70, amber 50–69, grey below 50.
Best data coverage
EV/EBITDA n/a R$1.10 R$2.83 62
All 1 models by family
Multiples
EV/EBITDA n/a R$1.10 R$2.83 62

Open the full fair value analysis →

Quality Score breakdown

Overall quality 41/100

It rates the business: profits, how they develop, real cash, balance sheet, investing and share count.

Profitability 30
How much profit the company makes from its sales and capital
Quality Growth 38
Are margins and returns getting better?
Cashflow 2
Do the profits arrive as real cash?
Financial strength 19
Debt, balance sheet and risk of trouble
Investment 97
Does it invest with discipline instead of growing at any price?
Low Volatility 50
How calm the share price moves, does not count
Momentum 39
Price trend of the last 3 to 12 months, does not count
Near the 52-week high 12
Distance to the 52-week high, does not count
New shares 81
Buys back shares or issues new ones?

Open the full quality analysis →

Revenue & earnings trend

Growth Quality ⓘGrowth is valuable only when reinvestment earns attractive returns (Aswath Damodaran): sustainable growth depends on return on capital, reinvestment and efficiency. Basis: total company revenue over the periods shown on the cards (3Y/5Y/all years), not per share, so a merger can show up as a growth jump; per-share earnings growth is in the value-creation card. 38/100
Revenue growth is inconsistent: the periods point in different directions, so there is no trend to rely on.
Revenue growth 1 year
−11.5%
Revenue growth 3 years ⓘMeasures the company's TOTAL revenue from reported annual statements: compound average growth per year (CAGR) from the fiscal year 3, 5 or N years back to the most recent comparable fiscal year. Not per share: buybacks do not change this number, and a merger can appear as a growth jump. Per-share growth (which does include buybacks) is in the value-creation card.
−2.8%
Revenue growth 5 years ⓘMeasures the company's TOTAL revenue from reported annual statements: compound average growth per year (CAGR) from the fiscal year 3, 5 or N years back to the most recent comparable fiscal year. Not per share: buybacks do not change this number, and a merger can appear as a growth jump. Per-share growth (which does include buybacks) is in the value-creation card.
+20.4%
Start year 2021 (pandemic). Over 10 years: +13.5% a year
Revenue growth 13 years ⓘMeasures the company's TOTAL revenue from reported annual statements: compound average growth per year (CAGR) from the fiscal year 3, 5 or N years back to the most recent comparable fiscal year. Not per share: buybacks do not change this number, and a merger can appear as a growth jump. Per-share growth (which does include buybacks) is in the value-creation card.
+13.5%
Profit margin (trend) ⓘOperating margin then vs now, from reported annual statements. A falling margin after a boom year is the classic peak-earnings signal: the growth rate then leans on an inflated base.
1.9% (2021) → −1.1% (2026)
What shareholders gained per year ⓘWe only publish this rate when it is defensible. Reason: fiscal 2026 is a loss year, no rate is defined from a loss
not computed

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Peer GroupⓘHow this stock ranks against its industry: the green marker is this stock, the band is the typical 25–75% peer range, and the tick is the median.Utilities - Renewable · 203 stocks

Beats the industry median on 3/8 measures
Overall it trails its industry peers.
Valuation
Quality Score 41 · Below median
Fair Value upside +155.8% · Top 25%
Profitability
Return on equity (12 months) Negative equity ⓘThe company's equity is below zero, for example after large share buybacks. A ratio to negative equity has no meaning, so we show no number here and do not rank it against the peer group.
Return on assets −25.7% · Bottom 25%
Net margin (12 months) −11.8% · Bottom 25%
Operating margin (12 months) 4.3% · Below median
Growth and dividend
Revenue growth (quarter YoY) 4.0% · Above median
Dividend yield (12 months) 0.5% · Bottom 25%
Balance sheet
Debt / equity Negative equity ⓘThe company's equity is below zero, for example after large share buybacks. A ratio to negative equity has no meaning, so we show no number here and do not rank it against the peer group.

Valuation Multiplesvs Utilities - Renewable median · lower = cheaper

P/B Negative equity ⓘThe company's equity is below zero, for example after large share buybacks. A ratio to negative equity has no meaning, so we show no number here and do not rank it against the peer group.
P/S (12 months) 0.02× · Cheapest 25%

Strength profile in five axes (Snowflake)

VALUEFUTUREPASTHEALTHDIVIDEND
This stock
VALUEFUTUREPASTHEALTHDIVIDEND
Sector peers
VALUE (fair-value potential)100 · sector 24
FUTURE (revenue growth)20 · sector 8
PAST (return on equity)0 · sector 13
HEALTH (low debt)0 · sector 70
DIVIDEND (yield)9 · sector 43

PAST 0: with negative equity (buybacks among others) return on equity is not meaningfully computable.

Context: sector, industry, market

Values & ESG

Does this company touch areas you may want to avoid? The classification is inferred from sector and industry.

None of the checked exposures detected

Similar stocks

10 more Utilities - Renewable stocks, each showing price versus our Fair Value estimate.

Stock Price Fair Value vs Fair Value Compare
China Yangtze Power Co 600900 ¥29.57 ¥32.53 +10% vs RAIZ4
SDIC Power Holdings 600886 ¥15.92 ¥17.51 +10% vs RAIZ4
VERBUND AG VER €68.50 €66.45 −3% vs RAIZ4
China Three Gorges Renewables (Group) Co 600905 ¥3.36 ¥2.40 −29% vs RAIZ4
Fortum Oyj FORTUM €22.91 €14.83 −35% vs RAIZ4
Huaneng Lancang River Hydropower Inc 600025 ¥10.36 ¥4.45 −57% vs RAIZ4
Public Power Corporation PPC €23.08 €7.56 −67% vs RAIZ4
EDP Renewables, S.A EDPR €12.09 €3.67 −70% vs RAIZ4
Ørsted A/S ORSTED kr 131.60 kr 33.25 −75% vs RAIZ4
Adani Green Energy Limited ADANIGREEN ₹1,259 ₹170.50 −86% vs RAIZ4

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Raízen S.A. · Fair Value
R$1.10 +61%Fair Value
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Cite: Fair Value Calculator (2026). "Raízen S.A. Fair Value". https://www.fairvalue-calculator.com/stock/RAIZ4

Frequently asked questions

Is Raízen S.A. (RAIZ4) overvalued or undervalued?
As of Oct 26, 2026, our model estimates a fair value of R$1.10 versus a price of R$0.4300, about +156% upside (undervalued).
What is the fair value of RAIZ4?
Our model-based fair value for Raízen S.A. is R$1.10 (as of Oct 26, 2026), built from audited fundamentals. The current price: R$0.4300.
What is the quality score of RAIZ4?
Raízen S.A. has a Quality Score of 41/100. It measures business quality (profitability, growth, cash flow, balance-sheet strength, investment discipline, share issuance). Market factors such as price momentum and volatility do not enter the number; they are shown separately in the detail view.
What is the price target for Raízen S.A. (RAIZ4)?
Our model-based price target is the fair value of R$1.10 (as of Oct 26, 2026) from 1 valuation models. Cautious scenario R$0.2200, optimistic scenario R$2.83. It is a calculation from audited fundamentals, not an analyst target.
What is the Raízen S.A. stock forecast for 2026?
Our models put fair value at R$1.10, about +156% upside versus a price of R$0.4300 (undervalued). Cautious scenario R$0.2200, optimistic scenario R$2.83. The calculation is refreshed regularly with new filings.
What is the revenue of Raízen S.A. (RAIZ4)?
Raízen S.A. reported trailing-twelve-month revenue of about R$228B (latest available figure, as of Oct 26, 2026).
Does Raízen S.A. pay a dividend?
Raízen S.A. currently shows a dividend yield of 0.47% relative to its recent price (as of Oct 26, 2026).
What is the intrinsic value of Raízen S.A. (RAIZ4)?
Intrinsic value and fair value mean the same thing: what the business is worth on its numbers, independent of the share price. For Raízen S.A. it is R$1.10 per share (as of Oct 26, 2026), against a price of R$0.4300. It is the blended result of 1 valuation models (cash flow, earnings, asset, dividend).
Is Raízen S.A. stock overvalued or undervalued in 2026?
As of Oct 26, 2026, RAIZ4 trades below its calculated fair value: price R$0.4300, fair value R$1.10, a gap of about +156% (undervalued). The calculation is refreshed with each new quarterly report, so the verdict can change during the year.
Is fair value the same as the market price of RAIZ4?
No. The price is what the market pays today (R$0.4300); the fair value is what the company's own numbers justify (R$1.10). For Raízen S.A. the two are R$0.6700 per share apart. That gap is exactly why we show both numbers side by side.
How much is Raízen S.A. worth?
The market values Raízen S.A. at about R$4.4B (market capitalisation, as of Oct 26, 2026). Per share that is R$0.4300; our models calculate a fair value of R$1.10 per share.
What do the bullish and bearish scenarios say about RAIZ4?
Our models span a range for Raízen S.A.: cautious scenario R$0.2200, base R$1.10, optimistic R$2.83 per share (as of Oct 26, 2026, price R$0.4300). The range comes from different growth and margin assumptions, not from analyst opinions.
How solid is the balance sheet of Raízen S.A. (RAIZ4)?
Balance-sheet figures for Raízen S.A. (as of Oct 26, 2026): negative equity, so no return on equity and no debt-to-equity ratio. They feed the Quality Score of 41/100, which measures business quality independently of the share price.
How far is RAIZ4 from its 52-week high?
Raízen S.A. trades at R$0.4300, about 60% below its 52-week high of R$1.08 and 95% above the low of R$0.2200 (as of Oct 23, 2026). Distance from the high says nothing about value: that is what the fair value of R$1.10 is for.
Which stocks are comparable to Raízen S.A.?
From the same area (Utilities) we also value China Yangtze Power Co, Huaneng Lancang River Hydropower Inc, Ørsted A/S, VERBUND AG, among others. Each of them has its own fair-value calculation on this site using the same models, so the comparison is like for like.
Is Raízen S.A. stock attractive at the current price?
The data as of Oct 26, 2026: price R$0.4300, calculated fair value R$1.10 (+156%), Quality Score 41/100, from 1 models. Whether that fits your horizon and risk tolerance is your call. We provide the calculation, not investment advice.
How is the fair value of RAIZ4 calculated?
We run Raízen S.A. through 1 models from four families: discounted cash flow, earnings models, asset and balance-sheet models, and dividend models. Every model gets the same audited fundamentals; the result is the weighted average of R$1.10, with the spread shown as a cautious and an optimistic scenario.
Is it still worth investing in stocks now?
The global stock market currently sits 12.7 % above its aggregate fair value. Raízen S.A. currently trades 61 % below its own fair value, and the market average says nothing about that. An expensive market is no reason to stay out and no reason to buy everything at once: keep a broad savings plan running, buy single stocks only with money you can do without, and hold part of your money liquid while the market is high. The full picture including sectors is on is it worth investing now.
What is the share price of Raízen S.A. (RAIZ4)?
The closing price on Oct 23, 2026 was R$0.4300. Our model-based fair value is R$1.10, about +156% upside (undervalued). We carry closing prices from our data provider, not a live tick.
What should I pay attention to with Raízen S.A. right now?
The large discount to fair value meets weak quality (41/100). That raises the risk this is a value trap rather than a bargain. The model range is unusually wide (R$0.2200 to R$2.83). The outcome hinges heavily on assumptions, so read the point estimate with caution. The large gap to fair value rests on thin data (low evidence): fewer applicable models and a shorter history. Read it with extra caution.

Key figures of Raízen S.A.

How large is the market capitalisation of Raízen S.A. (RAIZ4)?
The market capitalisation of Raízen S.A. is R$4.4B (≈ $889M). The stock-market value of the whole company: share price times number of shares. It is what the market asks for the entire business today.
What are the earnings per share of Raízen S.A. (RAIZ4)?
Earnings per share at Raízen S.A. are R$−2.53. Earnings per share over the last twelve months: total profit spread across every single share.
What is the dividend yield of Raízen S.A. (RAIZ4)?
The dividend yield of Raízen S.A. is 0.5%. Yearly dividend relative to the share price. 3% pays 3 per 100 invested. Below: how much of profit is used for it.
What is the net margin of Raízen S.A. (RAIZ4)?
The net margin of Raízen S.A. is −11.8% (last twelve months). How much of every unit of revenue ends up as profit. 10% means 10 cents of profit per dollar of sales.
What is the return on equity of Raízen S.A. (RAIZ4)?
The return on equity (ROE) of Raízen S.A. is −840% (last twelve months). Profit relative to shareholders' equity, how efficiently the company works with its owners' money.
What is the EBIT return on assets of Raízen S.A. (RAIZ4)?
On an EBIT basis the return on assets of Raízen S.A. is 3.9% (avg 5y). Operating profit (EBIT) relative to everything the company owns, as a multi-year average. It describes the business model rather than one good or bad year.
What is the operating margin of Raízen S.A. (RAIZ4)?
The operating margin of Raízen S.A. is 4.3% (last twelve months). Profit from the core business (before interest and taxes) relative to revenue.
How fast is revenue growing at Raízen S.A. (RAIZ4)?
Revenue at Raízen S.A. is growing +4.0% versus a year earlier (3y avg −2.8%). How much revenue grew versus a year earlier (YoY). The 3-year average next to it puts the single year in context.
How fast are earnings growing at Raízen S.A. (RAIZ4)?
Earnings per share at Raízen S.A. are growing +64.3% versus a year earlier. How much earnings per share grew versus a year earlier.
How much free cash flow does Raízen S.A. (RAIZ4) generate?
The free cash flow of Raízen S.A. is −R$14.9B (fiscal year 2026). The cash truly left after running and investing in the business, this is what pays dividends and buybacks.
How much net debt does Raízen S.A. (RAIZ4) carry?
The net debt of Raízen S.A. is R$60.3B (fiscal year 2026). Debt minus cash on hand. The note shows how many years of free cash flow could in theory pay it off.
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