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Raízen S.A. (RAIZ4) Fair Value & Analysis

Utilities · BR · Market cap R$3.4B (≈ $669M) · ISIN BRRAIZACNPR6

What is Raízen S.A. really worth?

RS Raízen S.A. RAIZ4 · SA
PriceR$0.2700
Fair ValueR$0.7600
Upside+181.5%
Quality40/100

Below-average quality, trading 64% below our fair value of R$0.7600.

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Risks

!Weak Growth (revenue 5y +20.4 %/yr)
!Loss-making · -12.0% net margin
!Negative equity (buybacks among others) · negative free cash flow
!Trails peers (2/8)
!Narrow moat 14/100
!Evidence only low, so the estimate is less certain
!The models disagree: range R$0.1520 to R$1.97
!Weak on dividend: 8 out of 100
Evidence: Low Range R$0.1520 – R$1.97

Fair value as of: Aug 22, 2026

From 3 valuation models · updated 13 days ago

Fair value updated Aug 22, 2026, revised from R$0.8300 to R$0.7600 (−8.4%) since Aug 13, 2026. Share price −3.6% over the past month.

What runs behind every stock

69 individual criteria per stock, every one traceable See the method →

What matters now

  • The large discount to fair value meets weak quality (40/100). That raises the risk this is a value trap rather than a bargain.
  • The model range is unusually wide (R$0.1520 to R$1.97). The outcome hinges heavily on assumptions, so read the point estimate with caution.
  • The large gap to fair value rests on thin data (low evidence): fewer applicable models and a shorter history. Read it with extra caution.

Price vs Fair Value (5 years)

R$6.52 R$0.2200 Fair Value R$0.7600 Aug 2021 Sep 2026

White line = price, green steps = our fair value per fiscal year, dashed = 300-day average. As of Aug 22, 2026.

How to read this chart

60‑month range R$0.2200 – R$6.52 · fair‑value band R$0.1520 – R$1.97 · the R$0.2700 price screens below the R$0.7600 fair value. Dashed = 300-day average. As of Aug 22, 2026.

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Analysis

Raízen S.A. (RAIZ4) currently trades at R$0.2700, while our model-based Fair Value estimate is R$0.7600, implying the stock looks roughly 64.5% undervalued today. The Quality Score stands at 40/100 (below-average quality), in the Utilities sector. How firm this estimate is: it rests on 3 models at a data quality of 96/100, which puts the evidence level at low.

Over the trailing twelve months, Raízen S.A. generated revenue of R$232B at a net margin of −9.6%. Revenue declined 9.7% year over year. Net debt stands at R$60.3B. Fundamentals as of Aug 22, 2026

Our scenario range runs from R$0.1520 (bear case) to R$1.97 (bull case); at R$0.2700, the current price sits within that range. Bear and bull are the same models run on conservative and optimistic assumptions (margins, growth, valuation multiples), so a plausible valuation range, not a price target. For context, the median of 10 Utilities peers we cover trades at −12% fair-value upside, at 181%, RAIZ4 screens cheaper than that median.

Fair Value models

Each model estimates fair value its own way; the Fair Value above is the evidence-weighted, family-balanced blend. Evidence (0–100) measures how completely this model’s inputs are available: well-fed models carry more weight in the blend. The spread across models is intentional, each one stresses a different value driver; dividend models, for instance, come out structurally low when payout is small. Every input is real reported data, nothing guessed.

Model Bear Bear = the cautious scenario: the same model computed with conservative anchors (lower growth, margins and valuation multiples). Together with Bull it frames a plausible valuation range, not a price target.BaseBull Bull = the optimistic scenario: the same model computed with favourable anchors (higher growth, margins and valuation multiples). Together with Bear it frames a plausible valuation range, not a price target. Evidence
Highest evidence
Gordon GGM R$0.0009 R$0.0027 R$0.0036 67
DDM Multi-Stage R$0.0009 R$0.0027 R$0.0027 67
EV/EBITDA R$0.6035 R$0.7600 R$0.9165 67
All 3 models by family
Dividend Discount
Gordon GGM R$0.0009 R$0.0027 R$0.0036 67
DDM Multi-Stage R$0.0009 R$0.0027 R$0.0027 67
Multiples
EV/EBITDA R$0.6035 R$0.7600 R$0.9165 67

Widest divergence: Multiples (R$0.7600) versus Dividend Discount (R$0.0027). Highest evidence: Gordon GGM (67).

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Key figures & financial health

EPS (TTM) R$−2.62
Dividend yield 0.4%
Net margin −12.0% FY2026
Return on equity −548% TTM
Return on assets (EBIT) 3.9% avg 5y
Operating margin 0.4% TTM
More key figures
Growth
Revenue (TTM) R$226B TTM
Revenue growth (YoY) −11.1% 3y avg −2.8%
EPS growth (YoY) +64.3%
Balance sheet & cash flow
Free cash flow −R$14.9B FY2026
Net debt R$60.3B FY2026

Figures from reported company fundamentals · as of Aug 22, 2026. TTM = trailing twelve months.

Quality Score breakdown

Overall quality 40/100

Of which business quality 37 · Market factors (momentum, volatility) 15

Profitability 30
Margins and returns on capital today
Quality Growth 38
Are margins and returns improving?
Cashflow 2
Earnings quality: real cash, not paper profit
Fin. Strength 19
Balance sheet, leverage, solvency risk
Investment 97
Disciplined investing over empire-building
Low Volatility 50
Calm price path (market factor)
Momentum 1
Price trend over the last 3–12 months (market factor)
52W Momentum 0
Distance to the 52-week high (market factor)
Net Issuance 81
Buybacks instead of dilution

Non-valuation factor families (profitability, growth, cashflow, financial strength, momentum …), each academically grounded. Valuation itself sits in the Fair Value and is deliberately excluded here to avoid double-counting.

All values are scores from 0 to 100 (100 = best against fixed, research-based bands), not percentages. The three market factors (momentum, 52-week proximity, low volatility) are displayed but carry zero weight in the headline number: market sentiment is not a business property.

About the company

Raízen S.A. operates as an integrated energy company in Brazil, Argentina, rest of Latin America, North America, Asia, Europe, and internationally. The company trades in and markets fossil fuels and franchises network of service stations under the Shell brand name.

Full company description

Raízen S.A. operates as an integrated energy company in Brazil, Argentina, rest of Latin America, North America, Asia, Europe, and internationally. The company trades in and markets fossil fuels and franchises network of service stations under the Shell brand name. It also engages in the production, origination, marketing, and trading of ethanol and sugar; production and marketing of bioenergy, solar energy, and biogas; production and sale of automotive and industrial lubricants; and resale and marketing of electrical energy. In addition, the company provides financial products and services; port operation services; petroleum refining services; and equity interest in other companies. Further, it operates convenience and proximity stores. Raízen S.A. company was incorporated in 1961 and is headquartered in Rio de Janeiro, Brazil.

Company description, as reported by the company or data provider.

Revenue & earnings trend

FY2022 – FY2026 · reported fiscal years

Raízen S.A. reported revenue of R$226B in FY2026 versus R$191B in FY2022, a compound +4.2%/yr. Reported net income was −R$27.0B in FY2026.

Growth Quality 38/100
Revenue growth is weak, negative or inconsistent.
Latest Revenue (FY 2026)
R$226B
Latest YoY
−11.5%
Avg. revenue growth/yr (3Y) Measures the company's TOTAL revenue from reported annual statements: compound average growth per year (CAGR) from the fiscal year 3, 5 or N years back to the most recent comparable fiscal year. Not per share: buybacks do not change this number, and a merger can appear as a growth jump.
−2.8%
Avg. revenue growth/yr (5Y) Measures the company's TOTAL revenue from reported annual statements: compound average growth per year (CAGR) from the fiscal year 3, 5 or N years back to the most recent comparable fiscal year. Not per share: buybacks do not change this number, and a merger can appear as a growth jump.
+20.4%
Avg. revenue growth/yr (13Y) Measures the company's TOTAL revenue from reported annual statements: compound average growth per year (CAGR) from the fiscal year 3, 5 or N years back to the most recent comparable fiscal year. Not per share: buybacks do not change this number, and a merger can appear as a growth jump.
+13.5%
Value creation/yr We only publish this rate when it is defensible. Reason: fiscal 2026 is a loss year, no rate is defined from a loss
not computed
Revenue +4.2%/yr
FY22 R$191B
FY23 R$246B
FY24 R$220B
FY25 R$255B
FY26 R$226B
Net income
FY22 R$3.1B
FY23 R$2.4B
FY24 R$521M
FY25 −R$4.3B
FY26 −R$27.0B

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Cite: Fair Value Calculator (2026). "Raízen S.A. Fair Value". https://www.fairvalue-calculator.com/stock/RAIZ4

Peer Group

Utilities - Renewable · 219 stocks

How this stock ranks against its industry: the green marker is this stock, the band is the typical 25–75% peer range, and the tick is the median.

Quality Score 40 · Below median
Fair Value upside +182% · Top 25%
Return on assets −3% · Bottom 25%
Net margin (TTM) −12% · Bottom 25%
Operating margin (TTM) 0% · Below median
Revenue growth −11% · Below median
Dividend yield (TTM) 0.4% · Bottom 25%

Strength profile in five axes (Snowflake)

Five quick dimensions, each 0 to 100: VALUE (fair-value potential), FUTURE (revenue growth), PAST (return on equity), HEALTH (low debt), DIVIDEND (yield). Green = this stock, grey = typical sector peer.

VALUEFUTUREPASTHEALTHDIVIDEND
This stock
VALUEFUTUREPASTHEALTHDIVIDEND
Sector peers
VALUE100 · sector 7
FUTURE0 · sector 0
PAST0 · sector 11
HEALTH100 · sector 69
DIVIDEND8 · sector 44

PAST 0: with negative equity (buybacks among others) return on equity is not meaningfully computable.

Values & ESG

Does this company touch areas you may want to avoid? The classification is inferred from sector and industry.

None of the checked exposures detected

Similar stocks

10 more Utilities - Renewable stocks, each showing price versus our Fair Value estimate (as of Aug 22, 2026).

Stock Price Fair Value vs Fair Value
China Yangtze Power Co 600900 ¥27.96 ¥25.13 −10%
Ørsted A/S ORSTED kr 139.25 kr 31.40 −77%
Huaneng Lancang River Hydropower Inc 600025 ¥9.79 ¥5.57 −43%
Adani Green Energy Limited ADANIGREEN ₹1,319 ₹169.61 −87%
AXIA Energia SA AXIAP $10.74 $9.49 −12%
VERBUND AG OEWA €57.00 €66.19 +16%
BEPUN BEPUN C$45.05 C$42.83 −5%
BEP BEP $31.27 $70.40 +125%
Fortum Oyj FORTUM €19.80 €13.55 −32%
China Longyuan Power Group 001289 ¥15.92 ¥7.55 −53%

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Frequently asked questions

Is Raízen S.A. (RAIZ4) overvalued or undervalued?
As of Aug 22, 2026, our model estimates a fair value of R$0.7600 versus a price of R$0.2700, about +181% upside (undervalued).
What is the fair value of RAIZ4?
Our model-based fair value for Raízen S.A. is R$0.7600 (as of Aug 22, 2026), built from audited fundamentals. The current price: R$0.2700.
What is the quality score of RAIZ4?
Raízen S.A. has a Quality Score of 40/100. It measures business quality (profitability, growth, cash flow, balance-sheet strength, investment discipline, share issuance). Market factors such as price momentum and volatility do not enter the number; they are shown separately in the detail view.
What is the revenue of Raízen S.A. (RAIZ4)?
Raízen S.A. reported trailing-twelve-month revenue of about R$232B (latest available figure, as of Aug 22, 2026).
What is the net profit margin of RAIZ4?
The net profit margin of Raízen S.A. is about −9.6%, meaning it is currently running at a net loss. Based on the latest reported figures.
Does Raízen S.A. pay a dividend?
Raízen S.A. currently shows a dividend yield of about 0.41% relative to its recent price (as of Aug 22, 2026).
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