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Ultragenyx (RARE) fair value: what the stock is really worth

As of Nov 10, 2026: fair value (intrinsic value) of Ultragenyx stock $15.98, price $16.14, that is 1.0% below the price, quality 40 out of 100. Rating: fairly valued. The value is an estimate: none of our valuation models currently carries, it draws on revenue and assets compared with similar companies. Updated daily.

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Healthcare US

U Ultragenyx logo Thin data Nov 11, 2026

Ultragenyx

RARE · US
Fairly valued, weak quality

The stock costs about what our calculation considers fair.

Fair value $15.98 · Fairly valued
Quality 40/100
Mixed Growth (revenue 5y +19.9 %/yr in USD)
Negative equity (buybacks among others)
Mixed vs. peers (4/7)
Insiders sold $799,222 (6M)
Loss-making · -71.8% net margin (TTM)
Negative free cash flow
Narrow moat 13/100 · thin data
Thin data
Estimate
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What runs behind every stock

26 valuation models 8 families, DCF to NCAV 37 quality factors margins, balance sheet, cashflow, debt 6 AI factors moat, what no ratio measures 2,000+ data points verified, per stock, median

69 individual criteria per stock, every one traceable See the method →

Price vs Fair Value

$102.40 $12.88 Fair Value $15.98 Aug 2021 Nov 2026

White line = price, green steps = our fair value per fiscal year. As of Nov 11, 2026.

How to read this chart

60‑month range $12.88 – $102.40 · fair‑value band $11.99 – $19.98 · the $16.14 price screens above the $15.98 fair value. Green steps = our fair value per fiscal year (point-in-time, no hindsight). As of Nov 11, 2026.

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Company profile

Ultragenyx Pharmaceutical Inc., a biopharmaceutical company, focuses on the identification, acquisition, development, and commercialization of novel products for the treatment of rare and ultra-rare genetic diseases in North America, Latin America, Europe, the Middle East, Africa, and the Asia-Pacific.

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Its biologic products include Crysvita (burosumab), an antibody targeting fibroblast growth factor 23 for the treatment of X-linked hypophosphatemia, as well as tumor-induced osteomalacia; Mepsevii, an enzyme replacement therapy for the treatment of children and adults with Mucopolysaccharidosis VII; Dojolvi for the treatment of long-chain fatty acid oxidation disorders; and Evkeeza (evinacumab) for the treatment of homozygous familial hypercholesterolemia.

The company's products candidates that are in Phase 3 clinical trials include UX143, a human monoclonal antibody for the treatment of osteogenesis imperfecta; UX111, an AAV9 gene therapy product candidate for the treatment of patients with Sanfilippo syndrome type A, or MPS IIIA, a rare lysosomal storage disease; DTX401, an adeno-associated virus 8 (AAV8) gene therapy clinical candidate for the treatment of patients with glycogen storage disease type Ia; DTX301, an AAV8 gene therapy for the treatment of patients with ornithine transcarbamylase; and GTX-102, an antisense oligonucleotide for the treatment of Angelman syndrome.

It also develops UX701 that is in Phase 2 clinical trial for the treatment of Wilson disease; and UX053 for the treatment of glycogen storage disease type III. Ultragenyx Pharmaceutical Inc. has collaboration and license agreement with Kyowa Kirin Co., Ltd.; Saint Louis University; Baylor Research Institute; REGENXBIO Inc.; GeneTx; Mereo; University of Pennsylvania; Solid Biosciences Inc.; Regeneron; Abeona; and Arcturus Therapeutics Holdings Inc. The company was incorporated in 2010 and is headquartered in Novato, California.

Stock analysis

Ultragenyx (RARE) currently trades at $16.14, while our estimate is $15.98, so the stock looks roughly fairly valued today (gap 1.0%).

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Valuation

None of our valuation models currently carries for this company, usually because of losses or heavy investment. The estimate draws on revenue and assets compared with similar companies and is less precise than a model-based fair value.

Scenario range: $11.99 (bear) to $19.98 (bull), the price of $16.14 sits inside it. Bear and bull are the same models on cautious and optimistic assumptions, a range, not a price target.

Quality & growth

The Quality Score stands at 40/100 (below-average quality), in the Healthcare sector.

Mixed Growth: Revenue is growing, but margins or cash flow do not fully confirm the trend.

Ultragenyx reported revenue of $673M in FY2025 versus $351M in FY2021, a compound +17.6%/yr. Reported net income was −$575M in FY2025.

Key figures

Market cap $1.6B Small · P/S ratio 2.29 · EPS (TTM) $−5.17 · Net margin −71.8% · Return on equity −608% · Return on assets (EBIT) −35.2% (5-year average) · Operating margin −63.6% · Revenue (TTM) $730M.

Competitive moat

Our AI-assisted moat analysis scores the competitive advantage at 13 out of 100 (low confidence).

What moves the price

The share trades about 56% below its 52-week high and 25% above its 52-week low, currently below its 200-day average.

For context, the median of 10 Healthcare peers we cover trades at −7% fair-value upside, at −1%, RARE screens cheaper than that median.

Fair Value

Bear $11.99 Fair Value $15.98 Bull $19.98
Price $16.14 · Downside -1.0%
Estimate. None of our valuation models currently carries for this company, usually because of losses or heavy investment. The estimate draws on revenue and assets compared with similar companies and is less precise than a model-based fair value.

Quality Score breakdown

Overall quality 40/100

It rates the business: profits, how they develop, real cash, balance sheet, investing and share count.

Profitability 23
How much profit the company makes from its sales and capital
Quality Growth 69
Are margins and returns getting better?
Cashflow 7
Do the profits arrive as real cash?
Financial strength 49
Debt, balance sheet and risk of trouble
Investment 100
Does it invest with discipline instead of growing at any price?
Low Volatility 50
How calm the share price moves, does not count
Price momentum 0
Price momentum of the last 3 to 12 months, does not count
Near the 52-week high 7
Distance to the 52-week high, does not count
New shares 23
Buys back shares or issues new ones?

Open the full quality analysis →

Insider trades

In the last 6 months, 5 officers or directors sold shares worth $799,222 and none bought.

  • SaleHoward HornChief Financial Officer10× since Dec 10, 2025: 49,815 shares, avg. $23.88$1.2MOct 15, 2026
  • SaleTheodore Alan HuizengaSVP, Chief Accounting Officer4× since Dec 29, 2025: 3,161 shares, avg. $18.92$59,795Sep 15, 2026
  • SaleKarah Herdman ParschauerEVP and Chief Legal Officer4× since Mar 2, 2026: 21,460 shares, avg. $22.73$487,891Aug 3, 2026
  • SaleCorazon (Corsee) D. SandersDirector2,000 shares at $25.05$50,100Jun 15, 2026
  • SaleShehnaaz SulimanDirector5,740 shares at $25.12$144,189May 18, 202610b5-1 plan
  • SaleEric CrombezEVP and Chief Medical Officer2× since Mar 2, 2026: 7,373 shares, avg. $22.90$168,847May 5, 2026
  • SaleEmil D KakkisPresident & CEO, Director54,404 shares at $22.80$1.2MMar 2, 2026
  • SaleErik HarrisEVP & Chief Commercial Officer10,539 shares at $22.80$240,289Mar 2, 2026
  • SaleJohn Richard PinionOfficer10,029 shares at $22.80$228,661Mar 2, 2026

Plus 7 other filings such as grants, option exercises or tax withholding. They are not market purchases or sales.

Sales are often planned (taxes, diversification, 10b5-1 plans). Purchases with their own money are seen as the stronger sign. For information only: not part of the quality score or Fair Value.

Source: SEC Form 4, as of Nov 10, 2026. All filings at the SEC ↗

Revenue & earnings trend

Growth Quality ⓘGrowth is valuable only when reinvestment earns attractive returns (Aswath Damodaran): sustainable growth depends on return on capital, reinvestment and efficiency. Basis: total company revenue over the periods shown on the cards (3Y/5Y/all years), not per share, so a merger can show up as a growth jump; per-share earnings growth is in the value-creation card. 34/100
Revenue is growing, but margins or cash flow do not fully confirm the trend.
Revenue growth 1 year
+20.1%
Revenue growth 3 years ⓘMeasures the company's TOTAL revenue from reported annual statements: compound average growth per year (CAGR) from the fiscal year 3, 5 or N years back to the most recent comparable fiscal year. Not per share: buybacks do not change this number, and a merger can appear as a growth jump. Per-share growth (which does include buybacks) is in the value-creation card.
+22.8%
Revenue growth 5 years ⓘMeasures the company's TOTAL revenue from reported annual statements: compound average growth per year (CAGR) from the fiscal year 3, 5 or N years back to the most recent comparable fiscal year. Not per share: buybacks do not change this number, and a merger can appear as a growth jump. Per-share growth (which does include buybacks) is in the value-creation card.
+19.9%
Start year 2020 (pandemic)
Revenue growth 9 years ⓘMeasures the company's TOTAL revenue from reported annual statements: compound average growth per year (CAGR) from the fiscal year 3, 5 or N years back to the most recent comparable fiscal year. Not per share: buybacks do not change this number, and a merger can appear as a growth jump. Per-share growth (which does include buybacks) is in the value-creation card.
+158.0%
Profit margin (trend) ⓘOperating margin then vs now, from reported annual statements. A falling margin after a boom year is the classic peak-earnings signal: the growth rate then leans on an inflated base.
−121.8% (2020) → −79.5% (2025)
What shareholders gained per year ⓘWe only publish this rate when it is defensible. Reason: fiscal 2025 is a loss year, no rate is defined from a loss
not computed

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Peer GroupⓘHow this stock ranks against its industry: the green marker is this stock, the band is the typical 25–75% peer range, and the tick is the median.Biotechnology · 849 stocks

Beats the industry median on 4/7 measures
A mixed picture versus its industry peers.
Valuation
Quality Score 40 · Above median
Fair Value upside −1.0% · Top 25%
Profitability
Return on equity (12 months) Negative equity ⓘThe company's equity is below zero, for example after large share buybacks. A ratio to negative equity has no meaning, so we show no number here and do not rank it against the peer group.
Return on assets −37.5% · Below median
Net margin (12 months) −71.8% · Bottom 25%
Operating margin (12 months) −63.6% · Bottom 25%
Growth and dividend
Revenue growth (quarter YoY) 8.1% · Above median
Balance sheet
Debt / equity Negative equity ⓘThe company's equity is below zero, for example after large share buybacks. A ratio to negative equity has no meaning, so we show no number here and do not rank it against the peer group.

Valuation Multiplesvs Biotechnology median · lower = cheaper

P/B Negative equity ⓘThe company's equity is below zero, for example after large share buybacks. A ratio to negative equity has no meaning, so we show no number here and do not rank it against the peer group.
P/S (12 months) 2.25× · Cheapest 25%

Strength profile in five axes (Snowflake)

VALUEFUTUREPASTHEALTHDIVIDEND
This stock
VALUEFUTUREPASTHEALTHDIVIDEND
Sector peers
VALUE (fair-value potential)32 · sector 0
FUTURE (revenue growth)41 · sector 0
PAST (return on equity)0 · sector 0
HEALTH (low debt)0 · sector 96
DIVIDEND (yield)0 · sector 20

PAST 0: with negative equity (buybacks among others) return on equity is not meaningfully computable.

Context: sector, industry, market

Values & ESG

Does this company touch areas you may want to avoid? The classification is inferred from sector and industry.

None of the checked exposures detected

Similar stocks

10 more Biotechnology stocks, each showing price versus our Fair Value estimate.

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Regeneron Pharmaceuticals, Inc REGN $916.06 $1,275 +39% vs RARE
Samsung Biologics Co 207940 1,468,000 KRW 1,661,000 KRW +13% vs RARE
Vertex Pharmaceuticals Incorporated VRTX $547.89 $601.80 +10% vs RARE
Genmab A/S GMAB kr 3,581 kr 3,880 +8% vs RARE
argenx SE ARGX $971.55 $908.40 −7% vs RARE
CSL Limited CSL A$201.68 A$181.40 −10% vs RARE
Moderna, Inc MRNA $250.83 $158.70 −37% vs RARE
BeOne Medicines AG 6160 HK$252.20 HK$152.80 −39% vs RARE
Celltrion, Inc 068270 203,000 KRW 74,945 KRW −63% vs RARE
Royalty Pharma plc RPRX $69.45 $19.01 −73% vs RARE

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Ultragenyx: fair value per Fair Value Calculator

Cite: Fair Value Calculator (2026). "Ultragenyx Fair Value". https://www.fairvalue-calculator.com/stock/RARE

Frequently asked questions

Is Ultragenyx (RARE) overvalued or undervalued?
As of Nov 11, 2026, our estimate of fair value is $15.98 versus a price of $16.14, about 1% lower (fairly valued).
What is the fair value of RARE?
Our estimate for Ultragenyx is $15.98 (as of Nov 11, 2026), built from audited fundamentals. The current price: $16.14.
What is the quality score of RARE?
Ultragenyx has a Quality Score of 40/100. It measures business quality (profitability, growth, cash flow, balance-sheet strength, investment discipline, share issuance). Market factors such as price momentum and volatility do not enter the number; they are shown separately in the detail view.
What is the price target for Ultragenyx (RARE)?
Our calculated price target is the estimate of $15.98 (as of Nov 11, 2026). Cautious scenario $11.99, optimistic scenario $19.98. It is an estimate from revenue and assets compared with similar companies, because none of our valuation models currently carries, not an analyst target.
What is the Ultragenyx stock forecast for 2026?
Our estimate puts fair value at $15.98, about 1% lower versus a price of $16.14 (fairly valued). Cautious scenario $11.99, optimistic scenario $19.98. The calculation is refreshed regularly with new filings.
What is the revenue of Ultragenyx (RARE)?
Ultragenyx reported trailing-twelve-month revenue of about $730M (latest available figure, as of Nov 11, 2026).
What is the intrinsic value of Ultragenyx (RARE)?
Intrinsic value and fair value mean the same thing: what the business is worth on its numbers, independent of the share price. For Ultragenyx it is $15.98 per share (as of Nov 11, 2026), against a price of $16.14.
Is Ultragenyx stock overvalued or undervalued in 2026?
As of Nov 11, 2026, RARE trades above its calculated fair value: price $16.14, fair value $15.98, a gap of about −1% (fairly valued). The calculation is refreshed with each new quarterly report, so the verdict can change during the year.
Is fair value the same as the market price of RARE?
No. The price is what the market pays today ($16.14); the fair value is what the company's own numbers justify ($15.98). For Ultragenyx the two are $0.1600 per share apart. That gap is exactly why we show both numbers side by side.
How much is Ultragenyx worth?
The market values Ultragenyx at about $1.6B (market capitalisation, as of Nov 11, 2026). Per share that is $16.14; our models calculate a fair value of $15.98 per share.
What do the bullish and bearish scenarios say about RARE?
Our models span a range for Ultragenyx: cautious scenario $11.99, base $15.98, optimistic $19.98 per share (as of Nov 11, 2026, price $16.14). The range comes from different growth and margin assumptions, not from analyst opinions.
How solid is the balance sheet of Ultragenyx (RARE)?
Balance-sheet figures for Ultragenyx (as of Nov 11, 2026): negative equity, so no return on equity and no debt-to-equity ratio. They feed the Quality Score of 40/100, which measures business quality independently of the share price.
How far is RARE from its 52-week high?
Ultragenyx trades at $16.14, about 56% below its 52-week high of $36.54 and 25% above the low of $12.88 (as of Nov 10, 2026). Distance from the high says nothing about value: that is what the fair value of $15.98 is for.
Which stocks are comparable to Ultragenyx?
From the same area (Healthcare) we also value Vertex Pharmaceuticals Incorporated, Moderna, Inc, Regeneron Pharmaceuticals, Inc, CSL Limited, among others. Each of them has its own fair-value calculation on this site using the same models, so the comparison is like for like.
Is Ultragenyx stock attractive at the current price?
The data as of Nov 11, 2026: price $16.14, calculated fair value $15.98 (−1%), Quality Score 40/100. Whether that fits your horizon and risk tolerance is your call. We provide the calculation, not investment advice.
Is it still worth investing in stocks now?
The global stock market currently sits 15.1% above its aggregate fair value. Ultragenyx itself currently trades above fair value. An expensive market is no reason to stay out and no reason to buy everything at once: keep a broad savings plan running, buy single stocks only with money you can do without, and hold part of your money liquid while the market is high. The full picture including sectors is on is it worth investing now.
What is the share price of Ultragenyx (RARE)?
The closing price on Nov 10, 2026 was $16.14. Our estimate is $15.98, about 1% lower (fairly valued). We carry closing prices from our data provider, not a live tick.
What should I pay attention to with Ultragenyx right now?
The price sits close to our fair value, market and models broadly agree here, little valuation tension. Evidence is limited here (fewer models, shorter history), so the fair value is a rougher estimate than usual.

Key figures of Ultragenyx

How large is the market capitalisation of Ultragenyx (RARE)?
The market capitalisation of Ultragenyx is $1.6B. The stock-market value of the whole company: share price times number of shares. It is what the market asks for the entire business today.
What is the P/S ratio of Ultragenyx (RARE)?
The price-to-sales ratio of Ultragenyx is 2.29 (last twelve months). Price to sales: market value relative to yearly revenue. Useful when profit is thin or distorted.
What are the earnings per share of Ultragenyx (RARE)?
Earnings per share at Ultragenyx are $−5.17. Earnings per share over the last twelve months: total profit spread across every single share.
What is the net margin of Ultragenyx (RARE)?
The net margin of Ultragenyx is −71.8% (last twelve months). How much of every unit of revenue ends up as profit. 10% means 10 cents of profit per dollar of sales.
What is the return on equity of Ultragenyx (RARE)?
The return on equity (ROE) of Ultragenyx is −608% (last twelve months). Profit relative to shareholders' equity, how efficiently the company works with its owners' money.
What is the EBIT return on assets of Ultragenyx (RARE)?
On an EBIT basis the return on assets of Ultragenyx is −35.2% (avg 5y). Operating profit (EBIT) relative to everything the company owns, as a multi-year average. It describes the business model rather than one good or bad year.
What is the operating margin of Ultragenyx (RARE)?
The operating margin of Ultragenyx is −63.6% (last twelve months). Profit from the core business (before interest and taxes) relative to revenue.
How fast is revenue growing at Ultragenyx (RARE)?
Revenue at Ultragenyx is growing +8.1% versus a year earlier (3y avg +22.8%). How much revenue grew versus a year earlier (YoY). The 3-year average next to it puts the single year in context.
How much free cash flow does Ultragenyx (RARE) generate?
The free cash flow of Ultragenyx is −$472M (fiscal year 2025). The cash truly left after running and investing in the business, this is what pays dividends and buybacks.
How much net debt does Ultragenyx (RARE) carry?
The net debt of Ultragenyx is $842M (fiscal year 2025). Debt minus cash on hand. The note shows how many years of free cash flow could in theory pay it off.
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