Ultragenyx (RARE) fair value: what the stock is really worth
We calculate from audited financials what Ultragenyx is really worth. The fair value tells you whether the price is too high or too low, the quality score (0 to 100) how solid the business behind it is. 26 models, 37 quality factors, updated daily.
Valuation from Jun 23, 2026. With the latest figures (losses, negative cash flow), a fair value can no longer be calculated.
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Price vs Fair Value
White line = price, green steps = our fair value per fiscal year, dashed = 300-day average. As of Jun 23, 2026.
How to read this chart
60‑month range $12.88 – $102.40 · fair‑value band $17.94 – $29.90 · the $14.88 price screens below the $23.92 fair value. Green steps = our fair value per fiscal year (point-in-time, no hindsight). Dashed = 300-day average. As of Jun 23, 2026.
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Ultragenyx Pharmaceutical Inc., a biopharmaceutical company, focuses on the identification, acquisition, development, and commercialization of novel products for the treatment of rare and ultra-rare genetic diseases in North America, Latin America, Europe, the Middle East, Africa, and the Asia-Pacific.
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Ultragenyx Pharmaceutical Inc., a biopharmaceutical company, focuses on the identification, acquisition, development, and commercialization of novel products for the treatment of rare and ultra-rare genetic diseases in North America, Latin America, Europe, the Middle East, Africa, and the Asia-Pacific. Its biologic products include Crysvita (burosumab), an antibody targeting fibroblast growth factor 23 for the treatment of X-linked hypophosphatemia, as well as tumor-induced osteomalacia; Mepsevii, an enzyme replacement therapy for the treatment of children and adults with Mucopolysaccharidosis VII; Dojolvi for the treatment of long-chain fatty acid oxidation disorders; and Evkeeza (evinacumab) for the treatment of homozygous familial hypercholesterolemia. The company's products candidates that are in Phase 3 clinical trials include UX143, a human monoclonal antibody for the treatment of osteogenesis imperfecta; UX111, an AAV9 gene therapy product candidate for the treatment of patients with Sanfilippo syndrome type A, or MPS IIIA, a rare lysosomal storage disease; DTX401, an adeno-associated virus 8 (AAV8) gene therapy clinical candidate for the treatment of patients with glycogen storage disease type Ia; DTX301, an AAV8 gene therapy for the treatment of patients with ornithine transcarbamylase; and GTX-102, an antisense oligonucleotide for the treatment of Angelman syndrome. It also develops UX701 that is in Phase 2 clinical trial for the treatment of Wilson disease; and UX053 for the treatment of glycogen storage disease type III. Ultragenyx Pharmaceutical Inc. has collaboration and license agreement with Kyowa Kirin Co., Ltd.; Saint Louis University; Baylor Research Institute; REGENXBIO Inc.; GeneTx; Mereo; University of Pennsylvania; Solid Biosciences Inc.; Regeneron; Abeona; and Arcturus Therapeutics Holdings Inc. The company was incorporated in 2010 and is headquartered in Novato, California.
Stock analysis
Ultragenyx (RARE) currently trades at $14.88, while our model-based Fair Value estimate is $23.92, implying the stock looks roughly 37.8% undervalued today.
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Valuation
How firm this estimate is: it rests on 3 models at a data quality of 94/100, which puts the evidence level at low.
Scenario range: $17.94 (bear) to $29.90 (bull), the price of $14.88 sits below it. Bear and bull are the same models on cautious and optimistic assumptions, a range, not a price target.
Quality & growth
The Quality Score stands at 36/100 (below-average quality), in the Healthcare sector.
Mixed Growth: Revenue is growing, but margins or cash flow do not fully confirm the trend.
Ultragenyx reported revenue of $673M in FY2025 versus $351M in FY2021, a compound +17.6%/yr. Reported net income was −$575M in FY2025.
Key figures
Market cap $3.0B · P/S ratio 4.44 · EPS (TTM) $−6.10 · Net margin −85.4% · Return on equity −608% · Return on assets (EBIT) −35.2% · Operating margin −102% · Revenue (TTM) $670M.
Competitive moat
Our AI-assisted moat analysis scores the competitive advantage at 43 out of 100 (low confidence).
What moves the price
The share trades about 59% below its 52-week high and 16% above its 52-week low, currently below its 200-day average.
For context, the median of 10 Healthcare peers we cover trades at −5% fair-value upside, at 61%, RARE screens cheaper than that median.
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Growth Quality ⓘGrowth is valuable only when reinvestment earns attractive returns (Aswath Damodaran): sustainable growth depends on return on capital, reinvestment and efficiency. Basis: total company revenue over the periods shown on the cards (3Y/5Y/all years), not per share, so a merger can show up as a growth jump; per-share earnings growth is in the value-creation card.34/100
Revenue is growing, but margins or cash flow do not fully confirm the trend.
Revenue growth 1 year
+20.1%
Revenue growth 3 years ⓘMeasures the company's TOTAL revenue from reported annual statements: compound average growth per year (CAGR) from the fiscal year 3, 5 or N years back to the most recent comparable fiscal year. Not per share: buybacks do not change this number, and a merger can appear as a growth jump. Per-share growth (which does include buybacks) is in the value-creation card.
+22.8%
Revenue growth 5 years ⓘMeasures the company's TOTAL revenue from reported annual statements: compound average growth per year (CAGR) from the fiscal year 3, 5 or N years back to the most recent comparable fiscal year. Not per share: buybacks do not change this number, and a merger can appear as a growth jump. Per-share growth (which does include buybacks) is in the value-creation card.
+19.9%
Start year 2020 (pandemic)
Revenue growth 9 years ⓘMeasures the company's TOTAL revenue from reported annual statements: compound average growth per year (CAGR) from the fiscal year 3, 5 or N years back to the most recent comparable fiscal year. Not per share: buybacks do not change this number, and a merger can appear as a growth jump. Per-share growth (which does include buybacks) is in the value-creation card.
+158.0%
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Profit margin (trend) ⓘOperating margin then vs now, from reported annual statements. A falling margin after a boom year is the classic peak-earnings signal: the growth rate then leans on an inflated base.
−121.8% (2020) → −79.5% (2025)
What shareholders gained per year ⓘWe only publish this rate when it is defensible. Reason: fiscal 2025 is a loss year, no rate is defined from a loss
News mood ⓘNews mood, the average tone of recent news (86 articles), rated against how stocks are usually covered. 🚀 Hype = unusually upbeat · 🙂 Positive = above average · 😐 Neutral = typical · 🙁 Negative = below average · 😨 Very negative = unusually downbeat. It reflects the tone of coverage, not our valuation.Neutral
Recent news coverage is roughly neutral, about typical for how stocks are covered.
Price, fair value, quality and upside side by side.
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Peer GroupⓘHow this stock ranks against its industry: the green marker is this stock, the band is the typical 25–75% peer range, and the tick is the median.Biotechnology · 651 stocks
Beats the industry median on 1/7 measures
Overall it trails its industry peers.
Valuation
Quality Score36 · Below median
Fair Value upside+53% · Top 25%
Profitability
Return on equity (TTM)Negative equity ⓘThe company's equity is below zero, for example after large share buybacks. A ratio to negative equity has no meaning, so we show no number here and do not rank it against the peer group.
Return on assets−25% · Below median
Net margin (TTM)−91% · Bottom 25%
Operating margin (TTM)−102% · Bottom 25%
Growth and dividend
Revenue growth−2% · Below median
Balance sheet
Debt / equityNegative equity ⓘThe company's equity is below zero, for example after large share buybacks. A ratio to negative equity has no meaning, so we show no number here and do not rank it against the peer group.
Valuation Multiplesvs Biotechnology median · lower = cheaper
P/BNegative equity ⓘThe company's equity is below zero, for example after large share buybacks. A ratio to negative equity has no meaning, so we show no number here and do not rank it against the peer group.
P/S (TTM)4.44× · Pricier than median
Strength profile in five axes (Snowflake)
This stockSector peers
VALUE (fair-value potential)100· sector 0
FUTURE (revenue growth)0· sector 0
PAST (return on equity)0· sector 0
HEALTH (low debt)0· sector 97
DIVIDEND (yield)0· sector 23
PAST 0: with negative equity (buybacks among others) return on equity is not meaningfully computable.
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Cite: Fair Value Calculator (2026). "Ultragenyx Fair Value". https://www.fairvalue-calculator.com/stock/RARE
Frequently asked questions
Is Ultragenyx (RARE) overvalued or undervalued?
As of Jun 23, 2026, our model estimates a fair value of $23.92 versus a price of $14.88, about +61% upside (undervalued).
What is the fair value of RARE?
Our model-based fair value for Ultragenyx is $23.92 (as of Jun 23, 2026), built from audited fundamentals. The current price: $14.88.
What is the quality score of RARE?
Ultragenyx has a Quality Score of 36/100. It measures business quality (profitability, growth, cash flow, balance-sheet strength, investment discipline, share issuance). Market factors such as price momentum and volatility do not enter the number; they are shown separately in the detail view.
What is the price target for Ultragenyx (RARE)?
Our model-based price target is the fair value of $23.92 (as of Jun 23, 2026) from 3 valuation models. Cautious scenario $17.94, optimistic scenario $29.90. It is a calculation from audited fundamentals, not an analyst target.
What is the Ultragenyx stock forecast for 2026?
Our models put fair value at $23.92, about +61% upside versus a price of $14.88 (undervalued). Cautious scenario $17.94, optimistic scenario $29.90. The calculation is refreshed regularly with new filings.
What is the revenue of Ultragenyx (RARE)?
Ultragenyx reported trailing-twelve-month revenue of about $670M (latest available figure, as of Jun 23, 2026).
What is the intrinsic value of Ultragenyx (RARE)?
Intrinsic value and fair value mean the same thing: what the business is worth on its numbers, independent of the share price. For Ultragenyx it is $23.92 per share (as of Jun 23, 2026), against a price of $14.88. It is the blended result of 3 valuation models (cash flow, earnings, asset, dividend).
Is Ultragenyx stock overvalued or undervalued in 2026?
As of Jun 23, 2026, RARE trades below its calculated fair value: price $14.88, fair value $23.92, a gap of about +61% (undervalued). The calculation is refreshed with each new quarterly report, so the verdict can change during the year.
Is fair value the same as the market price of RARE?
No. The price is what the market pays today ($14.88); the fair value is what the company's own numbers justify ($23.92). For Ultragenyx the two are $9.04 per share apart. That gap is exactly why we show both numbers side by side.
How much is Ultragenyx worth?
The market values Ultragenyx at about $3.0B (market capitalisation, as of Jun 23, 2026). Per share that is $14.88; our models calculate a fair value of $23.92 per share.
What do the bullish and bearish scenarios say about RARE?
Our models span a range for Ultragenyx: cautious scenario $17.94, base $23.92, optimistic $29.90 per share (as of Jun 23, 2026, price $14.88). The range comes from different growth and margin assumptions, not from analyst opinions.
How solid is the balance sheet of Ultragenyx (RARE)?
Balance-sheet figures for Ultragenyx (as of Jun 23, 2026): negative equity, so no return on equity and no debt-to-equity ratio. They feed the Quality Score of 36/100, which measures business quality independently of the share price.
How far is RARE from its 52-week high?
Ultragenyx trades at $14.88, about 59% below its 52-week high of $36.54 and 16% above the low of $12.88 (as of Sep 23, 2026). Distance from the high says nothing about value: that is what the fair value of $23.92 is for.
Which stocks are comparable to Ultragenyx?
From the same area (Healthcare) we also value Vertex Pharmaceuticals Incorporated, Regeneron Pharmaceuticals, Inc, argenx SE, Samsung Biologics Co, among others. Each of them has its own fair-value calculation on this site using the same models, so the comparison is like for like.
Is Ultragenyx stock attractive at the current price?
The data as of Jun 23, 2026: price $14.88, calculated fair value $23.92 (+61%), Quality Score 36/100, from 3 models. Whether that fits your horizon and risk tolerance is your call. We provide the calculation, not investment advice.
How is the fair value of RARE calculated?
We run Ultragenyx through 3 models from four families: discounted cash flow, earnings models, asset and balance-sheet models, and dividend models. Every model gets the same audited fundamentals; the result is the weighted average of $23.92, with the spread shown as a cautious and an optimistic scenario.
Is it still worth investing in stocks now?
The global stock market currently sits 14.1 % above its aggregate fair value. Ultragenyx currently trades 61 % below its own fair value, and the market average says nothing about that. An expensive market is no reason to stay out and no reason to buy everything at once: keep a broad savings plan running, buy single stocks only with money you can do without, and hold part of your money liquid while the market is high. The full picture including sectors is on is it worth investing now.
What is the share price of Ultragenyx (RARE)?
The closing price on Sep 23, 2026 was $14.88. Our model-based fair value is $23.92, about +61% upside (undervalued). We carry closing prices from our data provider, not a live tick.
What should I pay attention to with Ultragenyx right now?
The large discount to fair value meets weak quality (36/100). That raises the risk this is a value trap rather than a bargain. The price is below even our cautious bear case ($17.94). The market is more pessimistic than our downside scenario. The large gap to fair value rests on thin data (low evidence): fewer applicable models and a shorter history. Read it with extra caution.
Key figures of Ultragenyx
How large is the market capitalisation of Ultragenyx (RARE)?
The market capitalisation of Ultragenyx is $3.0B. The stock-market value of the whole company: share price times number of shares. It is what the market asks for the entire business today.
What is the P/S ratio of Ultragenyx (RARE)?
The price-to-sales ratio of Ultragenyx is 4.44 (last twelve months). Price to sales: market value relative to yearly revenue. Useful when profit is thin or distorted.
What are the earnings per share of Ultragenyx (RARE)?
Earnings per share at Ultragenyx are $−6.10. Earnings per share over the last twelve months: total profit spread across every single share.
What is the net margin of Ultragenyx (RARE)?
The net margin of Ultragenyx is −85.4% (fiscal year 2025). How much of every unit of revenue ends up as profit. 10% means 10 cents of profit per dollar of sales.
What is the return on equity of Ultragenyx (RARE)?
The return on equity (ROE) of Ultragenyx is −608% (last twelve months). Profit relative to shareholders' equity, how efficiently the company works with its owners' money.
What is the EBIT return on assets of Ultragenyx (RARE)?
On an EBIT basis the return on assets of Ultragenyx is −35.2% (avg 5y). Operating profit (EBIT) relative to everything the company owns, as a multi-year average. It describes the business model rather than one good or bad year.
What is the operating margin of Ultragenyx (RARE)?
The operating margin of Ultragenyx is −102% (last twelve months). Profit from the core business (before interest and taxes) relative to revenue.
How fast is revenue growing at Ultragenyx (RARE)?
Revenue at Ultragenyx is growing −2.2% versus a year earlier (3y avg +22.8%). How much revenue grew versus a year earlier (YoY). The 3-year average next to it puts the single year in context.
How much free cash flow does Ultragenyx (RARE) generate?
The free cash flow of Ultragenyx is −$472M (fiscal year 2025). The cash truly left after running and investing in the business, this is what pays dividends and buybacks.
How much net debt does Ultragenyx (RARE) carry?
The net debt of Ultragenyx is $842M (fiscal year 2025). Debt minus cash on hand. The note shows how many years of free cash flow could in theory pay it off.
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Thin data
Jun 23, 2026