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Realfiction Holding AB (REALFI) fair value: what the stock is really worth

As of Oct 2, 2026: fair value of Realfiction Holding AB SEK 1.35, price SEK 2.35, upside -42.6%, quality 26 out of 100. Calculated from audited financials with 26 valuation models and 37 quality factors, updated daily.

  1. Fair value above price? No
  2. Good quality? No
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Technology · SE · ISIN SE0009920994

RH Thin data Jul 16, 2026

Realfiction Holding AB

REALFI · ST

Weakest SetupStrongly overvalued and low quality.

!Fair value kr 1.35 · Strongly overvalued (−42.6%)
!Quality 26/100
!Weak Growth (revenue 5y −14.8 %/yr)
!Low debt · negative free cash flow
!Trails peers (1/7)
!Narrow moat 12/100
!Evidence only low, so the estimate is less certain
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What runs behind every stock

26 valuation models 8 families, DCF to NCAV 37 quality factors margins, balance sheet, cashflow, debt 6 AI factors moat, what no ratio measures 2,000+ data points verified, per stock, median

69 individual criteria per stock, every one traceable See the method →

Price vs Fair Value

kr 145.95 kr 2.34 Fair Value kr 1.35 Jul 2021 Oct 2026

White line = price, green steps = our fair value per fiscal year, dashed = 300-day average. As of Jul 16, 2026.

How to read this chart

60‑month range kr 2.34 – kr 145.95 · fair‑value band kr 1.01 – kr 2.02 · the kr 2.35 price screens above the kr 1.35 fair value. Green steps = our fair value per fiscal year (point-in-time, no hindsight). Dashed = 300-day average. As of Jul 16, 2026.

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Company profile

Realfiction Holding AB (publ) manufactures and sells mixed reality solutions worldwide.

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Realfiction Holding AB (publ) manufactures and sells mixed reality solutions worldwide. The company offers DeepFrame, a mixed-reality display system that merges the real and virtual world; Dreamoc POP3, a display to create attention around a campaign or product launch; Dreamoc HD3.2, a platform for grabbing attention in commercial setting; and Dreamoc XL5, a high-quality 3D holographic display that creates an eye-catching visual experience. It also provides Dreamoc XXL3, a mixed reality display to create attention for large objects at airports or in shopping malls; and Dreamoc Diamond, a display solution for events and brand activations in shopping malls, trade fairs, and other traffic locations. Realfiction Holding AB (publ) was founded in 2008 and is based in Helsingborg, Sweden.

Stock analysis

Realfiction Holding AB (REALFI) currently trades at kr 2.35, while our model-based Fair Value estimate is kr 1.35, 42.6% below the price, so the stock looks overvalued today.

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Valuation

How firm this estimate is: it rests on 1 models at a data quality of 95/100, which puts the evidence level at low.

Scenario range: kr 1.01 (bear) to kr 2.02 (bull), the price of kr 2.35 sits above it. Bear and bull are the same models on cautious and optimistic assumptions, a range, not a price target.

Quality & growth

The Quality Score stands at 26/100 (below-average quality), in the Technology sector.

Weak Growth: Revenue is shrinking: the last year, the last three and the last five years are all negative.

Realfiction Holding AB reported revenue of 4.3M SEK in FY2025 versus 12.6M SEK in FY2021, a compound −23.7%/yr. Reported net income was −25.3M SEK in FY2025.

Key figures

Market cap 57.3M SEK (≈ $5.7M) · P/S ratio 13.6 · EPS (TTM) kr −1.03 · Return on equity −56.7% · Return on assets (EBIT) −15.0% · Operating margin −659% · Revenue (TTM) 4.2M SEK · Revenue growth (YoY) −7.2%.

Competitive moat

Our AI-assisted moat analysis scores the competitive advantage at 41 out of 100 (low confidence).

What moves the price

The share trades about 57% below its 52-week high and 520% above its 52-week low, currently below its 200-day average.

For context, the median of 10 Technology peers we cover trades at −21% fair-value upside, at −43%, REALFI screens richer than that median.

Fair Value models

Bear kr 1.01 Fair Value kr 1.35 Bull kr 2.02
Model ⓘEach model values the company its own way (discounted cash flow, earnings, assets, dividends). The fair value above is their evidence-weighted blend, not the output of a single model. Bear ⓘBear = the cautious scenario: the same model computed with conservative anchors (lower growth, margins and valuation multiples). Together with Bull it frames a plausible valuation range, not a price target.BaseBull ⓘBull = the optimistic scenario: the same model computed with favourable anchors (higher growth, margins and valuation multiples). Together with Bear it frames a plausible valuation range, not a price target. If a model's bull case is above four times its base value, the table shows that limit with a > sign (like the overall Bull above): beyond it no assumption holds. Evidence ⓘEvidence = how well-backed THIS model's estimate is for this stock (0–100): how complete and reliable its input data are, and how well the model fits the company. The final Fair Value is an evidence-weighted blend, so better-evidenced models count more. Green ≥70, amber 50–69, grey below 50.
Highest evidence
NCAV (Graham) kr 1.01 kr 1.35 kr 2.02 54
All 1 models by family
Asset-Based
NCAV (Graham) kr 1.01 kr 1.35 kr 2.02 54

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Quality Score breakdown

Overall quality 26/100

Of which business quality 28 · Market factors (momentum, volatility) 11

Profitability 0
Margins and returns on capital today
Quality Growth 0
Are margins and returns improving?
Cashflow 6
Earnings quality: real cash, not paper profit
Fin. Strength 68
Balance sheet, leverage, solvency risk
Investment 80
Disciplined investing over empire-building
Low Volatility 38
Calm price path (market factor)
Momentum 0
Price trend over the last 3–12 months (market factor)
52W Momentum 0
Distance to the 52-week high (market factor)
Net Issuance 30
Share count: buybacks or dilution?

Open the full quality analysis →

Revenue & earnings trend

Growth Quality ⓘGrowth is valuable only when reinvestment earns attractive returns (Aswath Damodaran): sustainable growth depends on return on capital, reinvestment and efficiency. Basis: total company revenue over the periods shown on the cards (3Y/5Y/all years), not per share, so a merger can show up as a growth jump; per-share earnings growth is in the value-creation card. 0/100
Revenue is shrinking: the last year, the last three and the last five years are all negative.
Revenue growth 1 year
−77.1%
Revenue growth 3 years ⓘMeasures the company's TOTAL revenue from reported annual statements: compound average growth per year (CAGR) from the fiscal year 3, 5 or N years back to the most recent comparable fiscal year. Not per share: buybacks do not change this number, and a merger can appear as a growth jump. Per-share growth (which does include buybacks) is in the value-creation card.
−33.0%
Revenue growth 5 years ⓘMeasures the company's TOTAL revenue from reported annual statements: compound average growth per year (CAGR) from the fiscal year 3, 5 or N years back to the most recent comparable fiscal year. Not per share: buybacks do not change this number, and a merger can appear as a growth jump. Per-share growth (which does include buybacks) is in the value-creation card.
−14.8%
Start year 2020 (pandemic). Over 10 years: −15.2% a year
Revenue growth 10 years ⓘMeasures the company's TOTAL revenue from reported annual statements: compound average growth per year (CAGR) from the fiscal year 3, 5 or N years back to the most recent comparable fiscal year. Not per share: buybacks do not change this number, and a merger can appear as a growth jump. Per-share growth (which does include buybacks) is in the value-creation card.
−15.2%
Profit margin (trend) ⓘOperating margin then vs now, from reported annual statements. A falling margin after a boom year is the classic peak-earnings signal: the growth rate then leans on an inflated base.
−99.4% (2020) → −622.3% (2025)
What shareholders gained per year ⓘWe only publish this rate when it is defensible. Reason: fiscal 2025 is a loss year, no rate is defined from a loss
not computed

REALFI screens overvalued: fair value 43% below the price. Compare with Dell Technologies Inc →

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Peer GroupⓘHow this stock ranks against its industry: the green marker is this stock, the band is the typical 25–75% peer range, and the tick is the median.Computer Hardware · 199 stocks

Beats the industry median on 1/6 measures
Overall it trails its industry peers.
Valuation
Quality Score 28 · Bottom 25%
Fair Value upside +200.0% · Top 25%
Profitability
Return on assets −20.9% · Bottom 25%
Growth and dividend
Revenue growth −7.2% · Bottom 25%
Balance sheet
Debt / equity 0.25× · Highest 25%

Valuation Multiplesvs Computer Hardware median · lower = cheaper

P/B 0.12× · book value is mostly goodwill ⓘGoodwill and other intangible assets are larger than the equity. The book value mainly reflects prices paid for past acquisitions, so we do not rank this P/B against the peer group.
P/S (TTM) 1.36× · Pricier than median

Strength profile in five axes (Snowflake)

VALUEFUTUREPASTHEALTHDIVIDEND
This stock
VALUEFUTUREPASTHEALTHDIVIDEND
Sector peers
VALUE (fair-value potential)100 · sector 0
FUTURE (revenue growth)0 · sector 72
PAST (return on equity)0 · sector 32
HEALTH (low debt)88 · sector 97
DIVIDEND (yield)0 · sector 47

Context: sector, industry, market

Values & ESG

Does this company touch areas you may want to avoid? The classification is inferred from sector and industry.

None of the checked exposures detected

Similar stocks

10 more Computer Hardware stocks, each showing price versus our Fair Value estimate.

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Dell Technologies Inc DELL $539.59 $195.72 −64%
Arista Networks, Inc ANET $203.59 $161.24 −21%
Seagate Technology Holdings STX $922.34 $220.46 −76%
Western Digital Corporation WDC $453.23 $182.63 −60%
Wiwynn Corporation 6669 2,115 TWD 997.81 TWD −53%
Lenovo Group 0992 HK$37.16 HK$33.71 −9%
Hangzhou Hikvision Digital Technology Co 002415 ¥32.63 ¥46.76 +43%
Everpure, Inc P $126.00 $51.34 −59%
Super Micro Computer, Inc SMCI $41.92 $45.03 +7%
HP Inc HPQ $31.32 $52.70 +68%

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Realfiction Holding AB · Fair Value
kr 1.35 −43%Fair Value
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Cite: Fair Value Calculator (2026). "Realfiction Holding AB Fair Value". https://www.fairvalue-calculator.com/stock/REALFI

Frequently asked questions

Is Realfiction Holding AB (REALFI) overvalued or undervalued?
As of Jul 16, 2026, our model estimates a fair value of kr 1.35 versus a price of kr 2.35, about −43% upside (overvalued).
What is the fair value of REALFI?
Our model-based fair value for Realfiction Holding AB is kr 1.35 (as of Jul 16, 2026), built from audited fundamentals. The current price: kr 2.35.
What is the quality score of REALFI?
Realfiction Holding AB has a Quality Score of 26/100. It measures business quality (profitability, growth, cash flow, balance-sheet strength, investment discipline, share issuance). Market factors such as price momentum and volatility do not enter the number; they are shown separately in the detail view.
What is the price target for Realfiction Holding AB (REALFI)?
Our model-based price target is the fair value of kr 1.35 (as of Jul 16, 2026) from 1 valuation models. Cautious scenario kr 1.01, optimistic scenario kr 2.02. It is a calculation from audited fundamentals, not an analyst target.
What is the Realfiction Holding AB stock forecast for 2026?
Our models put fair value at kr 1.35, about −43% upside versus a price of kr 2.35 (overvalued). Cautious scenario kr 1.01, optimistic scenario kr 2.02. The calculation is refreshed regularly with new filings.
What is the revenue of Realfiction Holding AB (REALFI)?
Realfiction Holding AB reported trailing-twelve-month revenue of about 4.2M SEK (latest available figure, as of Jul 16, 2026).
What is the intrinsic value of Realfiction Holding AB (REALFI)?
Intrinsic value and fair value mean the same thing: what the business is worth on its numbers, independent of the share price. For Realfiction Holding AB it is kr 1.35 per share (as of Jul 16, 2026), against a price of kr 2.35. It is the blended result of 1 valuation models (cash flow, earnings, asset, dividend).
Is Realfiction Holding AB stock overvalued or undervalued in 2026?
As of Jul 16, 2026, REALFI trades above its calculated fair value: price kr 2.35, fair value kr 1.35, a gap of about −43% (overvalued). The calculation is refreshed with each new quarterly report, so the verdict can change during the year.
Is fair value the same as the market price of REALFI?
No. The price is what the market pays today (kr 2.35); the fair value is what the company's own numbers justify (kr 1.35). For Realfiction Holding AB the two are kr 1.00 per share apart. That gap is exactly why we show both numbers side by side.
How much is Realfiction Holding AB worth?
The market values Realfiction Holding AB at about 57.3M SEK (market capitalisation, as of Jul 16, 2026). Per share that is kr 2.35; our models calculate a fair value of kr 1.35 per share.
What do the bullish and bearish scenarios say about REALFI?
Our models span a range for Realfiction Holding AB: cautious scenario kr 1.01, base kr 1.35, optimistic kr 2.02 per share (as of Jul 16, 2026, price kr 2.35). The range comes from different growth and margin assumptions, not from analyst opinions.
How solid is the balance sheet of Realfiction Holding AB (REALFI)?
Balance-sheet figures for Realfiction Holding AB (as of Jul 16, 2026): return on equity −56.7%, debt of 0.25 per unit of equity. They feed the Quality Score of 26/100, which measures business quality independently of the share price.
How far is REALFI from its 52-week high?
Realfiction Holding AB trades at kr 2.35, about 57% below its 52-week high of kr 5.48 and 520% above the low of kr 0.3790 (as of Oct 2, 2026). Distance from the high says nothing about value: that is what the fair value of kr 1.35 is for.
Which stocks are comparable to Realfiction Holding AB?
From the same area (Technology) we also value Dell Technologies Inc, Arista Networks, Inc, Seagate Technology Holdings, Western Digital Corporation, among others. Each of them has its own fair-value calculation on this site using the same models, so the comparison is like for like.
Is Realfiction Holding AB stock attractive at the current price?
The data as of Jul 16, 2026: price kr 2.35, calculated fair value kr 1.35 (−43%), Quality Score 26/100, from 1 models. Whether that fits your horizon and risk tolerance is your call. We provide the calculation, not investment advice.
How is the fair value of REALFI calculated?
We run Realfiction Holding AB through 1 models from four families: discounted cash flow, earnings models, asset and balance-sheet models, and dividend models. Every model gets the same audited fundamentals; the result is the weighted average of kr 1.35, with the spread shown as a cautious and an optimistic scenario.
Is it still worth investing in stocks now?
The global stock market currently sits 14.5 % above its aggregate fair value. Realfiction Holding AB itself currently trades above fair value. An expensive market is no reason to stay out and no reason to buy everything at once: keep a broad savings plan running, buy single stocks only with money you can do without, and hold part of your money liquid while the market is high. The full picture including sectors is on is it worth investing now.
What is the share price of Realfiction Holding AB (REALFI)?
The closing price on Oct 2, 2026 was kr 2.35. Our model-based fair value is kr 1.35, about −43% upside (overvalued). We carry closing prices from our data provider, not a live tick.
What should I pay attention to with Realfiction Holding AB right now?
The price sits above even our optimistic bull case (kr 2.02). The favourable scenario is already priced in. Weak quality (26/100) and above fair value at the same time, the margin of safety is missing on both counts. The large gap to fair value rests on thin data (low evidence): fewer applicable models and a shorter history. Read it with extra caution. A fairly wide model range (kr 1.01 to kr 2.02) leaves room in how you read the outcome.

Key figures of Realfiction Holding AB

How large is the market capitalisation of Realfiction Holding AB (REALFI)?
The market capitalisation of Realfiction Holding AB is 57.3M SEK (≈ $5.7M). The stock-market value of the whole company: share price times number of shares. It is what the market asks for the entire business today.
What is the P/S ratio of Realfiction Holding AB (REALFI)?
The price-to-sales ratio of Realfiction Holding AB is 13.6 (last twelve months). Price to sales: market value relative to yearly revenue. Useful when profit is thin or distorted.
What are the earnings per share of Realfiction Holding AB (REALFI)?
Earnings per share at Realfiction Holding AB are kr −1.03. Earnings per share over the last twelve months: total profit spread across every single share.
What is the return on equity of Realfiction Holding AB (REALFI)?
The return on equity (ROE) of Realfiction Holding AB is −56.7% (last twelve months). Profit relative to shareholders' equity, how efficiently the company works with its owners' money.
What is the EBIT return on assets of Realfiction Holding AB (REALFI)?
On an EBIT basis the return on assets of Realfiction Holding AB is −15.0% (avg 5y). Operating profit (EBIT) relative to everything the company owns, as a multi-year average. It describes the business model rather than one good or bad year.
What is the operating margin of Realfiction Holding AB (REALFI)?
The operating margin of Realfiction Holding AB is −659% (last twelve months). Profit from the core business (before interest and taxes) relative to revenue.
How fast is revenue growing at Realfiction Holding AB (REALFI)?
Revenue at Realfiction Holding AB is growing −7.2% versus a year earlier (3y avg −33.0%). How much revenue grew versus a year earlier (YoY). The 3-year average next to it puts the single year in context.
How much free cash flow does Realfiction Holding AB (REALFI) generate?
The free cash flow of Realfiction Holding AB is −19.7M SEK (fiscal year 2025). The cash truly left after running and investing in the business, this is what pays dividends and buybacks.
How much net cash does Realfiction Holding AB (REALFI) hold?
Realfiction Holding AB holds more cash than debt, 1.9M SEK net (fiscal year 2025). The company holds more cash than debt, a safety cushion.
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