Realfiction Holding (REALFI) Fair Value & Analysis
Technology · SE · Market cap 57.3M SEK
Fair value as of: Jul 16, 2026
From 1 valuation models · updated 25 days ago
Share price +6.8% over the past month.
Below-average quality, and screening another 46% overvalued on our models.
What matters now
- The price sits above even our optimistic bull case (kr 2.02). The favourable scenario is already priced in.
- Weak quality (26/100) and above fair value at the same time, the margin of safety is missing on both counts.
- The large gap to fair value rests on thin data (low evidence): fewer applicable models and a shorter history. Read it with extra caution.
- A fairly wide model range (kr 1.01 to kr 2.02) leaves room in how you read the outcome.
Price vs Fair Value (5 years)
White line = price, green steps = our fair value per fiscal year, dashed = 300-day average. As of Jul 16, 2026.
How to read this chart
60‑month range kr 2.24 – kr 25.00 · fair‑value band kr 1.01 – kr 2.02 · the kr 2.52 price screens above the kr 1.35 fair value. Green steps = our fair value per fiscal year (point-in-time, no hindsight). Dashed = 300-day average. As of Jul 16, 2026.
Analysis
Realfiction Holding (REALFI) currently trades at kr 2.52, while our model-based Fair Value estimate is kr 1.35, implying the stock looks roughly 46.4% overvalued today. The Quality Score stands at 26/100 (below-average quality), in the Technology sector. Bear case: priced above our estimate, the market already discounts strong expectations. Bull case: above-average quality can justify a premium, the entry price still matters most (evidence: low).
Trailing-twelve-month revenue stands at 4.2M SEK. Revenue declined 7.2% year over year. It earns a return on equity of -56.7%. The balance sheet holds a net cash position of 1.9M SEK. Fundamentals as of Jul 16, 2026
Our scenario range runs from kr 1.01 (bear case) to kr 2.02 (bull case); at kr 2.52, the current price sits above that range. Bear and bull are the same models run on conservative and optimistic assumptions (margins, growth, valuation multiples), so a plausible valuation range, not a price target. The share trades about 72% below its 52-week high and 51% above its 52-week low, currently below its 200-day average. For context, the median of 10 Technology peers we cover trades at -67% fair-value upside, at -46%, REALFI screens cheaper than that median.
Fair Value models
Each model estimates fair value its own way; the Fair Value above is the evidence-weighted blend. Evidence (0–100) measures how completely this model’s inputs are available: well-fed models carry more weight in the blend. The spread across models is intentional, each one stresses a different value driver; dividend models, for instance, come out structurally low when payout is small.
All 1 models by family
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Key figures & financial health
More key figures
Figures from reported company fundamentals · as of Jul 16, 2026. TTM = trailing twelve months.
Quality Score breakdown
Of which business quality 28 · Market factors (momentum, volatility) 18
Non-valuation factor families (profitability, growth, cashflow, financial strength, momentum …), each academically grounded. Valuation itself sits in the Fair Value and is deliberately excluded here to avoid double-counting.
About the company
Realfiction Holding AB (publ) manufactures and sells mixed reality solutions worldwide. The company offers DeepFrame, a mixed-reality display system that merges the real and virtual world; Dreamoc POP3, a display to create attention around a campaign or product launch; Dreamoc HD3.2, a platform for grabbing attention in commercial setting; and Dreamoc XL5, …
Full company description
Realfiction Holding AB (publ) manufactures and sells mixed reality solutions worldwide. The company offers DeepFrame, a mixed-reality display system that merges the real and virtual world; Dreamoc POP3, a display to create attention around a campaign or product launch; Dreamoc HD3.2, a platform for grabbing attention in commercial setting; and Dreamoc XL5, a high-quality 3D holographic display that creates an eye-catching visual experience. It also provides Dreamoc XXL3, a mixed reality display to create attention for large objects at airports or in shopping malls; and Dreamoc Diamond, a display solution for events and brand activations in shopping malls, trade fairs, and other traffic locations. Realfiction Holding AB (publ) was founded in 2008 and is based in Helsingborg, Sweden.
Company description, as reported by the company or data provider.
Revenue & earnings trend
FY2021 – FY2025 · reported fiscal years
Realfiction Holding reported revenue of kr 4.3M in FY2025 versus kr 12.6M in FY2021, a compound −23.7%/yr. Reported net income was −kr 25.3M in FY2025.
REALFI screens 46% overvalued. Compare with Compal Electronics, Inc →
Peer Group
Computer Hardware · 215 stocks
How this stock ranks against its industry: the green marker is this stock, the band is the typical 25–75% peer range, and the tick is the median.
Valuation Multiples vs Computer Hardware median · lower = cheaper
Snowflake
Five quick dimensions, each 0 to 100: VALUE (fair-value potential), FUTURE (revenue growth), PAST (return on equity), HEALTH (low debt), DIVIDEND (yield). Green = this stock, grey = typical sector peer.
VALUE 0: the price sits above our fair-value range.
Values & ESG
Does this company touch areas you may want to avoid? The classification is inferred from sector and industry.
ESG scores are not available for this stock yet. Values and ESG data are contextual and can differ between providers.
Similar stocks
10 more Computer Hardware stocks, each showing price versus our Fair Value estimate (as of Jul 16, 2026).
| Stock | Price | Fair Value | vs Fair Value |
|---|---|---|---|
| Compal Electronics, Inc CEIR | $0.0310 | $0.0276 | -11% |
| Dell Technologies Inc DELL | $434.97 | $163.87 | -62% |
| Arista Networks, Inc ANET | $168.56 | $43.74 | -74% |
| Western Digital Corporation WDC | $513.84 | $74.05 | -86% |
| Wiwynn Corporation 6669 | 4,685 TWD | 1,559 TWD | -67% |
| Hangzhou Hikvision Digital Technology Co 002415 | ¥34.12 | ¥30.11 | -12% |
| Quanta Computer Inc 2382 | 373.50 TWD | 297.22 TWD | -20% |
| Shenzhen Longsys Electronics Co 301308 | ¥587.60 | ¥60.86 | -90% |
| Lenovo Group 0992 | HK$23.16 | HK$3.07 | -87% |
| Dawning Information Industry Co 603019 | ¥106.13 | ¥28.88 | -73% |
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Frequently asked questions
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How we calculate Fair Value
Each company is valued through a stack of independent intrinsic-value models (DCF variants, residual-income, multiples and more), blended into one family-balanced consensus and weighted by how much trustworthy data backs it. A separate quality layer scores the fundamentals. Every input is real reported data, nothing guessed.
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