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Roche Holding (RHHVF) fair value: what the stock is really worth
We calculate from audited financials what Roche Holding is really worth. The fair value tells you whether the price is too high or too low, the quality score (0 to 100) how solid the business behind it is. 26 models, 37 quality factors, updated daily.
- Fair value above price? No
- Good quality? Yes
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Broad data
Sep 13, 2026
Broad data
Sep 13, 2026
Roche Holding
RHHVF · USGreat Company, Expensive PriceHigh Quality, but the stock trades above estimated Fair Value.
!Fair value $380.64 · Overvalued (−12%)
✓Quality 75/100
!Weak Growth (revenue 5y +1.7 %/yr)
✓Highly profitable · 20.3% net margin (TTM)
✓Moderate debt · generates free cash flow
·2.27% dividend yield
✓Wide moat 93/100
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What runs behind every stock
26
valuation models
8 families, DCF to NCAV
37
quality factors
margins, balance sheet, cashflow, debt
6
AI factors
moat, what no ratio measures
2,000+
data points
verified, per stock, median
69 individual criteria per stock, every one traceable See the method →
Price vs Fair Value
White line = price, green steps = our fair value per fiscal year, dashed = 300-day average. As of Sep 13, 2026.
How to read this chart
60‑month range $218.92 – $472.85 · fair‑value band $254.73 – $615.72 · the $430.78 price screens above the $380.64 fair value. Green steps = our fair value per fiscal year (point-in-time, no hindsight). Dashed = 300-day average. As of Sep 13, 2026.
Company profile
Roche Holding AG engages in the pharmaceuticals and diagnostics businesses in Europe, North America, Latin America, Asia, Africa, Australia, and New Zealand.
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Roche Holding AG engages in the pharmaceuticals and diagnostics businesses in Europe, North America, Latin America, Asia, Africa, Australia, and New Zealand. The company offers pharma solutions in the therapeutic areas of anaemia, blood and solid tumors, dermatology, haematology, infectious diseases, inflammatory and autoimmune, neurological disorders, ophthalmology, respiratory disorders, and transplantation. It also provides in vitro tests for the diagnosis of various diseases, such as cancer, diabetes, Covid-19, hepatitis, human papillomavirus, and others; diagnostic instruments; and digital health solutions. The company was founded in 1896 and is based in Basel, Switzerland.
Stock analysis
Roche Holding (RHHVF) currently trades at $430.78, while our model-based Fair Value estimate is $380.64, implying the stock looks roughly 13.2% overvalued today.
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Valuation
Bull case: the Multiples group reads highest at a median of $317.83 per share, and 0 of the 22 models we run sit above the $430.78 price.
Bear case: the Economic Profit group reads lowest at $198.04, and 22 of the 22 models stay below the price. Evidence for this calculation is high.
Scenario range: $254.73 (bear) to $615.72 (bull), the price of $430.78 sits inside it. Bear and bull are the same models on cautious and optimistic assumptions, a range, not a price target.
Quality & growth
The Quality Score stands at 75/100 (high quality), in the Healthcare sector.
Weak Growth: Revenue growth is weak: less than 2 % a year.
Roche Holding reported revenue of CHF 63.4B in FY2025 versus CHF 62.8B in FY2021, a compound +0.2%/yr. Reported net income was CHF 12.9B in FY2025, compounding −1.9%/yr from FY2021.
Key figures
Market cap $343B · P/E ratio 19.4 · P/S ratio 3.94 · EPS (TTM) $19.87 · Dividend yield 2.3% · Net margin 20.3% · Return on equity 37.3% · Return on assets (EBIT) 17.6%.
Competitive moat
Our AI-assisted moat analysis scores the competitive advantage at 74 out of 100 (medium confidence).
What moves the price
The share trades about 9% below its 52-week high and 48% above its 52-week low, currently above its 200-day average.
For context, the median of 10 Healthcare peers we cover trades at 1% fair-value upside, at −12%, RHHVF screens richer than that median.
Fair Value models
Bear $254.73
Fair Value $380.64
Bull $615.72
Model ⓘEach model values the company its own way (discounted cash flow, earnings, assets, dividends). The fair value above is their evidence-weighted blend, not the output of a single model. Based on fiscal year 2025 figures (about 8 months old). Earnings retained since then ($7.09 per share) are deliberately not added.
Bear ⓘBear = the cautious scenario: the same model computed with conservative anchors (lower growth, margins and valuation multiples). Together with Bull it frames a plausible valuation range, not a price target.BaseBull ⓘBull = the optimistic scenario: the same model computed with favourable anchors (higher growth, margins and valuation multiples). Together with Bear it frames a plausible valuation range, not a price target.
Evidence ⓘEvidence = how well-backed THIS model's estimate is for this stock (0–100): how complete and reliable its input data are, and how well the model fits the company. The final Fair Value is an evidence-weighted blend, so better-evidenced models count more. Green ≥70, amber 50–69, grey below 50.
Highest evidence
FCF DCF
$170.44
$248.73
$402.62
79
Growth DCF
$179.25
$256.22
$395.94
78
Owner Earnings
$130.45
$193.26
$316.71
75
All 22 models by family
DCF Models
FCF DCF
$170.44
$248.73
$402.62
79
Owner Earnings
$130.45
$193.26
$316.71
75
5Y Revenue Exit
$155.52
$240.45
$363.79
72
5Y EBITDA Exit
$225.25
$359.34
$536.20
74
5Y P/E Exit
$211.60
$336.06
$483.67
70
10Y Revenue Exit
$153.77
$230.20
$317.88
67
10Y EBITDA Exit
$203.15
$310.64
$434.14
68
10Y P/E Exit
$194.57
$294.89
$398.71
64
Earnings-Based
Graham-Dodd
$127.13
$218.27
$266.77
67
EPV
$195.89
$236.05
$271.75
74
Multiples
P/E Multiple
$308.48
$411.31
$514.13
63
P/S Multiple
$238.37
$317.83
$397.28
58
P/B Multiple
$185.57
$247.43
$309.29
55
EV/EBIT
$310.22
$424.20
$538.18
66
EV/EBITDA
$301.49
$412.55
$523.62
67
EV/Revenue
$161.41
$244.18
$326.94
53
Asset-Based
NCAV (Graham)
$27.49
$36.84
$54.98
54
Growth DCF
Growth DCF
$179.25
$256.22
$395.94
78
Rev-Margin DCF
$155.52
$243.85
$353.70
72
Economic Profit
Residual Income
$138.76
$198.04
$1,833
64
ROIC Compounder
$200.20
$246.98
$296.53
72
Growth Earnings
Growth-Adj P/E
$217.45
$310.65
$403.84
67
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Set up alert →Quality Score breakdown
Overall quality
75/100
Of which business quality 70 · Market factors (momentum, volatility) 64
Profitability
77
Margins and returns on capital today
Quality Growth
49
Are margins and returns improving?
Cashflow
77
Earnings quality: real cash, not paper profit
Fin. Strength
64
Balance sheet, leverage, solvency risk
Investment
70
Disciplined investing over empire-building
Low Volatility
69
Calm price path (market factor)
Momentum
55
Price trend over the last 3–12 months (market factor)
52W Momentum
72
Distance to the 52-week high (market factor)
Net Issuance
83
Share count: buybacks or dilution?
Revenue & earnings trend
Growth Quality ⓘGrowth is valuable only when reinvestment earns attractive returns (Aswath Damodaran): sustainable growth depends on return on capital, reinvestment and efficiency. Basis: total company revenue over the periods shown on the cards (3Y/5Y/all years), not per share, so a merger can show up as a growth jump; per-share earnings growth is in the value-creation card.
40/100
Revenue growth is weak: less than 2 % a year.
Revenue growth 1 year
+1.5%
Revenue growth 3 years ⓘMeasures the company's TOTAL revenue from reported annual statements: compound average growth per year (CAGR) from the fiscal year 3, 5 or N years back to the most recent comparable fiscal year. Not per share: buybacks do not change this number, and a merger can appear as a growth jump. Per-share growth (which does include buybacks) is in the value-creation card.
+0.0%
Revenue growth 5 years ⓘMeasures the company's TOTAL revenue from reported annual statements: compound average growth per year (CAGR) from the fiscal year 3, 5 or N years back to the most recent comparable fiscal year. Not per share: buybacks do not change this number, and a merger can appear as a growth jump. Per-share growth (which does include buybacks) is in the value-creation card.
+1.7%
Revenue growth 11 years ⓘMeasures the company's TOTAL revenue from reported annual statements: compound average growth per year (CAGR) from the fiscal year 3, 5 or N years back to the most recent comparable fiscal year. Not per share: buybacks do not change this number, and a merger can appear as a growth jump. Per-share growth (which does include buybacks) is in the value-creation card.
+2.1%
’14
’15
’16
’17
’18
’19
’20
’21
’22
’23
’24
’25
What shareholders gained per year (last 5 years) ⓘWhat the business itself delivers per year: earnings growth per share plus the dividend yield. This is what you get IF the market keeps valuing the stock the same way: it contains no assumption about the market changing its mind. Computed per share, so buybacks count and a merger does not pass as growth. For a company that pays no dividend it is pure earnings growth per share. Period: earnings growth per share as CAGR over the last 5 reported fiscal years (annual statements), plus the current dividend yield. The start value is the median of the three years around the start, so a single crisis year (a pandemic or a write-down) does not distort the rate.
+2.2%
Earnings growth per share plus dividend.
Earnings per share, growth per year−0.1%
Dividend (yield on the price)2.3%
Profit margin 2020 to 2025 ⓘOperating margin then vs now, from reported annual statements. A falling margin after a boom year is the classic peak-earnings signal: the growth rate then leans on an inflated base.32% → 29%
Growth Forecast
A lot of optimism in the price
The price assumes more growth than the company has delivered so far and more than analysts expect.
What the price assumes ⓘThis turns our valuation around: instead of asking what the share is worth, it asks what growth the current price requires. It uses the cash the company keeps after all spending (free cash flow), the same discount rate as our models, five years of growth, then slowing evenly to 2 % a year by year ten. Compared with the analysts' sales forecasts extended to the same five years (at least three analysts, for context only, it does not enter the Fair Value): within 3 percentage points counts as "in line" (amber), below that little optimism (green), above that a lot of optimism (red).
+10.0%
Yearly growth needed for the next five years to justify today's price.
What forecasts expect ⓘAnalysts publish sales forecasts for the next two fiscal years. For the years after that, growth slows evenly to 2 % a year by year ten (2 % is the long-run rate our models use). Projected years are marked as such.
+2.6%
Yearly sales growth analysts expect, extended to five years.
Forecast 2026 (sales)−1.3%
Forecast 2027 (sales)+4.0%
Projected 2028 (sales)+3.8%
Projected 2029 (sales)+3.5%
Projected 2030 (sales)+3.3%
RHHVF screens 13% overvalued. Compare with Eli Lilly and Company →
Recent news
News mood ⓘNews mood, the average tone of recent news (100 articles), rated against how stocks are usually covered. 🚀 Hype = unusually upbeat · 🙂 Positive = above average · 😐 Neutral = typical · 🙁 Negative = below average · 😨 Very negative = unusually downbeat. It reflects the tone of coverage, not our valuation.
Positive
Recent news coverage is more positive than average.
- Roche’s collaborator MediLink announces phase III data for Tam-Peli showing significantly improved overall survival in Chinese patient popul
- Roche Gets FDA Priority Tag for Enspryng in Rare Autoimmune Disorder
Compare Roche Holding with another stock
Price, fair value, quality and upside side by side.
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Peer GroupⓘHow this stock ranks against its industry: the green marker is this stock, the band is the typical 25–75% peer range, and the tick is the median.Drug Manufacturers - General · 72 stocks
Beats the industry median on 10/15 measures
Overall it ranks above its industry peers.
Valuation Multiplesvs Drug Manufacturers - General median · lower = cheaper
Context: sector, industry, market
- Is the Health Care sector expensive or cheap?
- P/E, EV/EBITDA and margins by industry (reference tables)
- Undervalued stocks: US Stocks
- Valuation of the USA market
Values & ESG
Does this company touch areas you may want to avoid? The classification is inferred from sector and industry.
None of the checked exposures detected
Similar stocks
10 more Drug Manufacturers - General stocks, each showing price versus our Fair Value estimate.
| Stock | Price | Fair Value | vs Fair Value |
|---|---|---|---|
| Eli Lilly and Company LLY | $1,116 | $778.94 | −30% |
| Johnson & Johnson, JNJ | $265.58 | $169.04 | −36% |
| AbbVie Inc ABBV | $257.12 | $259.66 | +1% |
| Merck & Co MRK | €124.22 | €101.89 | −18% |
| Novartis AG NVS | $137.16 | $138.70 | +1% |
| Novo Nordisk A/S NOVOB | kr 276.45 | kr 409.46 | +48% |
| Amgen Inc AMGN | $377.35 | $415.09 | +10% |
| Gilead Sciences, Inc GILD | $143.72 | $198.51 | +38% |
| Pfizer Inc PFE | $27.72 | $20.39 | −26% |
| Bristol-Myers Squibb Company BMY | $63.64 | $75.98 | +19% |
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Frequently asked questions
Is Roche Holding (RHHVF) overvalued or undervalued?
As of Sep 13, 2026, our model estimates a fair value of $380.64 versus a price of $430.78, about −12% upside (overvalued).
What is the fair value of RHHVF?
Our model-based fair value for Roche Holding is $380.64 (as of Sep 13, 2026), built from audited fundamentals. The current price: $430.78.
What is the quality score of RHHVF?
Roche Holding has a Quality Score of 75/100. It measures business quality (profitability, growth, cash flow, balance-sheet strength, investment discipline, share issuance). Market factors such as price momentum and volatility do not enter the number; they are shown separately in the detail view.
What is the price target for Roche Holding (RHHVF)?
Our model-based price target is the fair value of $380.64 (as of Sep 13, 2026) from 22 valuation models. Cautious scenario $254.73, optimistic scenario $615.72. It is a calculation from audited fundamentals, not an analyst target.
What is the Roche Holding stock forecast for 2026?
Our models put fair value at $380.64, about −12% upside versus a price of $430.78 (overvalued). Cautious scenario $254.73, optimistic scenario $615.72. The calculation is refreshed regularly with new filings.
What is the revenue of Roche Holding (RHHVF)?
Roche Holding reported trailing-twelve-month revenue of about $63.4B (latest available figure, as of Sep 13, 2026).
Does Roche Holding pay a dividend?
Roche Holding currently shows a dividend yield of about 2.27% relative to its recent price (as of Sep 13, 2026).
What growth is priced into Roche Holding (RHHVF)?
For today's price to be fair in a discounted-cash-flow model, Roche Holding would have to grow free cash flow by +10.0 % per year for five years (discount rate 7.6 %, then slowing evenly to 2 % perpetual growth by year ten). Over the last 5 years revenue grew +1.7 % per year. As of Sep 13, 2026.
What discount rate (WACC) does the fair value of RHHVF use?
Our models discount Roche Holding at 7.6 %: a base by market capitalisation (mega), damped by beta 0.33, country premium for USA. The same rate applies in all 26 models.
What is a reverse DCF?
A reverse DCF turns the usual calculation around. Instead of deriving a value from assumptions, it takes today's price as given and asks: what free-cash-flow growth would a company have to deliver for exactly this price to be fair? The result is not a forecast but the expectation already priced in. For Roche Holding that is +10.0 % per year a year over ten years, using the same discount rate (7.6 %) and the same formula as our fair value.
How much growth has Roche Holding (RHHVF) delivered so far?
Over the past 5 years revenue at Roche Holding grew +1.7 % a year. The price currently implies +10.0 % per year free-cash-flow growth a year. Comparing the two shows how much confidence is in the price: if it demands more than has been delivered, the business has to accelerate for the maths to work.
How fast is the sector of Roche Holding (RHHVF) growing?
The median revenue growth in the sector is +4.3 % a year. That is the yardstick for the growth priced into Roche Holding (+10.0 % per year a year): it shows whether the expectation is within the usual range or beyond it.
What is the free cash flow yield of Roche Holding (RHHVF)?
The free-cash-flow yield on the price is 3.81 %: that much free cash flow Roche Holding produces per unit of market value. When it exceeds the discount rate of our models (7.6 %), the business already earns more than its cost of capital demands, and the price needs little additional growth.
What is the intrinsic value of Roche Holding (RHHVF)?
Intrinsic value and fair value mean the same thing: what the business is worth on its numbers, independent of the share price. For Roche Holding it is $380.64 per share (as of Sep 13, 2026), against a price of $430.78. It is the blended result of 22 valuation models (cash flow, earnings, asset, dividend).
Is Roche Holding stock overvalued or undervalued in 2026?
As of Sep 13, 2026, RHHVF trades above its calculated fair value: price $430.78, fair value $380.64, a gap of about −12% (overvalued). The calculation is refreshed with each new quarterly report, so the verdict can change during the year.
Is fair value the same as the market price of RHHVF?
No. The price is what the market pays today ($430.78); the fair value is what the company's own numbers justify ($380.64). For Roche Holding the two are $50.14 per share apart. That gap is exactly why we show both numbers side by side.
How much is Roche Holding worth?
The market values Roche Holding at about $343B (market capitalisation, as of Sep 13, 2026). Per share that is $430.78; our models calculate a fair value of $380.64 per share.
What do the bullish and bearish scenarios say about RHHVF?
Our models span a range for Roche Holding: cautious scenario $254.73, base $380.64, optimistic $615.72 per share (as of Sep 13, 2026, price $430.78). The range comes from different growth and margin assumptions, not from analyst opinions.
What is the P/E ratio of RHHVF?
Roche Holding trades at a price-to-earnings ratio of 19.4 (as of Sep 13, 2026). A P/E on its own says little: it compares the price with ONE year of profit, while our fair value of $380.64 is built from several models across several years. Other multiples: PEG 1.4, P/B 8.2, P/S 4.9, EV/EBITDA 13.8.
What is the PEG ratio of RHHVF?
The PEG ratio of Roche Holding is 1.36 (P/E divided by earnings growth, as of Sep 13, 2026). That is above 1, so the growth is already paid for in the price.
How solid is the balance sheet of Roche Holding (RHHVF)?
Balance-sheet figures for Roche Holding (as of Sep 13, 2026): return on equity 37.3%, debt of 0.72 per unit of equity. They feed the Quality Score of 75/100, which measures business quality independently of the share price.
How far is RHHVF from its 52-week high?
Roche Holding trades at $430.78, about 9% below its 52-week high of $475.98 and 48% above the low of $291.37 (as of Sep 13, 2026). Distance from the high says nothing about value: that is what the fair value of $380.64 is for.
Which stocks are comparable to Roche Holding?
From the same area (Healthcare) we also value Eli Lilly and Company, Johnson & Johnson,, AbbVie Inc, Merck & Co, among others. Each of them has its own fair-value calculation on this site using the same models, so the comparison is like for like.
Is Roche Holding stock attractive at the current price?
The data as of Sep 13, 2026: price $430.78, calculated fair value $380.64 (−12%), Quality Score 75/100, from 22 models. Whether that fits your horizon and risk tolerance is your call. We provide the calculation, not investment advice.
How is the fair value of RHHVF calculated?
We run Roche Holding through 22 models from four families: discounted cash flow, earnings models, asset and balance-sheet models, and dividend models. Every model gets the same audited fundamentals; the result is the weighted average of $380.64, with the spread shown as a cautious and an optimistic scenario.
Is it still worth investing in stocks now?
The global stock market currently sits 15.8 % above its aggregate fair value. Roche Holding itself currently trades above fair value. An expensive market is no reason to stay out and no reason to buy everything at once: keep a broad savings plan running, buy single stocks only with money you can do without, and hold part of your money liquid while the market is high. The full picture including sectors is on is it worth investing now.
What should I pay attention to with Roche Holding right now?
A fairly wide model range ($254.73 to $615.72) leaves room in how you read the outcome. The price sits in the lower half of our model range, the side with the larger margin of safety. The data supports the verdict: every model runs on fully documented inputs.
Key figures of Roche Holding
How large is the market capitalisation of Roche Holding (RHHVF)?
The market capitalisation of Roche Holding is $343B. The stock-market value of the whole company: share price times number of shares. It is what the market asks for the entire business today.
What is the P/S ratio of Roche Holding (RHHVF)?
The price-to-sales ratio of Roche Holding is 3.94 (P/E × margin). Price to sales: market value relative to yearly revenue. Useful when profit is thin or distorted.
What are the earnings per share of Roche Holding (RHHVF)?
Earnings per share at Roche Holding are $19.87 (price ÷ EPS = P/E 19.4). Earnings per share over the last twelve months: total profit spread across every single share.
What is the dividend yield of Roche Holding (RHHVF)?
The dividend yield of Roche Holding is 2.3% (payout 49.3%). Yearly dividend relative to the share price. 3% pays 3 per 100 invested. Below: how much of profit is used for it.
What is the net margin of Roche Holding (RHHVF)?
The net margin of Roche Holding is 20.3% (fiscal year 2025). How much of every unit of revenue ends up as profit. 10% means 10 cents of profit per dollar of sales.
What is the return on equity of Roche Holding (RHHVF)?
The return on equity (ROE) of Roche Holding is 37.3% (last twelve months). Profit relative to shareholders' equity, how efficiently the company works with its owners' money.
What is the EBIT return on assets of Roche Holding (RHHVF)?
On an EBIT basis the return on assets of Roche Holding is 17.6% (avg 5y). Operating profit (EBIT) relative to everything the company owns, as a multi-year average. It describes the business model rather than one good or bad year.
What is the operating margin of Roche Holding (RHHVF)?
The operating margin of Roche Holding is 30.0% (last twelve months). Profit from the core business (before interest and taxes) relative to revenue.
How fast is revenue growing at Roche Holding (RHHVF)?
Revenue at Roche Holding is growing −0.4% versus a year earlier (3y avg +0.0%). How much revenue grew versus a year earlier (YoY). The 3-year average next to it puts the single year in context.
How fast are earnings growing at Roche Holding (RHHVF)?
Earnings per share at Roche Holding are growing +171% versus a year earlier. How much earnings per share grew versus a year earlier.
How much net debt does Roche Holding (RHHVF) carry?
The net debt of Roche Holding is $26.1B (fiscal year 2025, ≈ 2.0 yrs of FCF). Debt minus cash on hand. The note shows how many years of free cash flow could in theory pay it off.
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