Guararapes Confecções S.A. (RIAA3) fair value: what the stock is really worth
As of Sep 24, 2026: fair value of Guararapes Confecções S.A. BRL 20.34, price BRL 6.78, upside +200.0%, quality 65 out of 100. Calculated from audited financials with 26 valuation models and 37 quality factors, updated daily.
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Price vs Fair Value
White line = price, green steps = our fair value per fiscal year, dashed = 300-day average. As of Sep 24, 2026.
How to read this chart
60‑month range R$2.56 – R$14.62 · fair‑value band R$10.08 – R$33.93 · the R$6.78 price screens below the R$20.34 fair value. Green steps = our fair value per fiscal year (point-in-time, no hindsight). Dashed = 300-day average. As of Sep 24, 2026.
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Guararapes Confecções S.A., together with its subsidiaries, manufactures, distributes, and sells clothing for general and personal use, and other related products through a chain of retail points and e-commerce in Brazil. It also offers financial services, including digital accounts, cards, loans, insurance, and assistance.
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Guararapes Confecções S.A., together with its subsidiaries, manufactures, distributes, and sells clothing for general and personal use, and other related products through a chain of retail points and e-commerce in Brazil. It also offers financial services, including digital accounts, cards, loans, insurance, and assistance. In addition, it owns and operates the Shopping Midway mall located in Natal, as well as offers parking management services. The company was founded in 1947 and is based in São Paulo, Brazil.
Stock analysis
Guararapes Confecções S.A. (RIAA3) currently trades at R$6.78, while our model-based Fair Value estimate is R$20.34, implying the stock looks roughly 66.7% undervalued today.
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Valuation
Bull case: the Growth Earnings group reads highest at a median of R$48.31 per share, and 26 of the 26 models we run sit above the R$6.78 price.
Bear case: the Asset-Based group reads lowest at R$7.14, and 0 of the 26 models stay below the price. Evidence for this calculation is low.
Scenario range: R$10.08 (bear) to R$33.93 (bull), the price of R$6.78 sits below it. Bear and bull are the same models on cautious and optimistic assumptions, a range, not a price target.
Quality & growth
The Quality Score stands at 65/100 (solid quality), in the Consumer Cyclical sector.
Expensive Growth: The company is growing, but growth may require heavy reinvestment or weak cash conversion.
Guararapes Confecções S.A. reported revenue of R$10.5B in FY2025 versus R$8.5B in FY2022, a compound +7.5%/yr. Reported net income was R$1.5B in FY2025, compounding +205.0%/yr from FY2022. FY2022 was a trough year, so the rate overstates the trend.
Key figures
Market cap R$4.3B (≈ $829M) · P/E ratio 2.3 · P/S ratio 0.32 · EPS (TTM) R$3.01 · Net margin 14.1% · Return on equity 28.2% · Return on assets (EBIT) 6.6% · Operating margin 3.0%.
Competitive moat
Our AI-assisted moat analysis scores the competitive advantage at 51 out of 100 (low confidence).
What moves the price
The share trades about 35% below its 52-week high and 8% above its 52-week low, currently below its 200-day average.
For context, the median of 10 Consumer Cyclical peers we cover trades at −1% fair-value upside, at 200%, RIAA3 screens cheaper than that median.
Fair Value models
Bear R$10.08Fair Value R$20.34Bull R$33.93
Model ⓘEach model values the company its own way (discounted cash flow, earnings, assets, dividends). The fair value above is their evidence-weighted blend, not the output of a single model. Based on fiscal year 2025 figures (about 9 months old). Earnings retained since then (R$0.0250 per share) are deliberately not added.Bear ⓘBear = the cautious scenario: the same model computed with conservative anchors (lower growth, margins and valuation multiples). Together with Bull it frames a plausible valuation range, not a price target.BaseBull ⓘBull = the optimistic scenario: the same model computed with favourable anchors (higher growth, margins and valuation multiples). Together with Bear it frames a plausible valuation range, not a price target.Evidence ⓘEvidence = how well-backed THIS model's estimate is for this stock (0–100): how complete and reliable its input data are, and how well the model fits the company. The final Fair Value is an evidence-weighted blend, so better-evidenced models count more. Green ≥70, amber 50–69, grey below 50.
Growth Quality ⓘGrowth is valuable only when reinvestment earns attractive returns (Aswath Damodaran): sustainable growth depends on return on capital, reinvestment and efficiency. Basis: total company revenue over the periods shown on the cards (3Y/5Y/all years), not per share, so a merger can show up as a growth jump; per-share earnings growth is in the value-creation card.62/100
The company is growing, but growth may require heavy reinvestment or weak cash conversion.
Revenue growth 1 year
+9.0%
Revenue growth 3 years ⓘMeasures the company's TOTAL revenue from reported annual statements: compound average growth per year (CAGR) from the fiscal year 3, 5 or N years back to the most recent comparable fiscal year. Not per share: buybacks do not change this number, and a merger can appear as a growth jump. Per-share growth (which does include buybacks) is in the value-creation card.
+7.5%
’22
’23
’24
’25
Profit margin (trend) ⓘOperating margin then vs now, from reported annual statements. A falling margin after a boom year is the classic peak-earnings signal: the growth rate then leans on an inflated base.
3.4% (2022) → 22.6% (2025)
What shareholders gained per year ⓘWe only publish this rate when it is defensible. Reason: rate outside our plausibility band
not computed
Growth Forecast
Little optimism in the price
The price assumes less growth than the company has delivered so far and less than analysts expect.
What the price assumes ⓘThis turns our valuation around: instead of asking what the share is worth, it asks what growth the current price requires. It uses the cash the company keeps after all spending (free cash flow), the same discount rate as our models, five years of growth, then slowing evenly to 2 % a year by year ten. Compared with the analysts' sales forecasts extended to the same five years (at least three analysts, for context only, it does not enter the Fair Value): within 3 percentage points counts as "in line" (amber), below that little optimism (green), above that a lot of optimism (red).
+3.2%
Yearly growth needed for the next five years to justify today's price.
What forecasts expect ⓘAnalysts publish sales forecasts for the next two fiscal years. For the years after that, growth slows evenly to 2 % a year by year ten (2 % is the long-run rate our models use). Projected years are marked as such.
+6.4%
Yearly sales growth analysts expect, extended to five years.
After inflation (Brazil: IMF forecast 3.3% a year to 2030, 5.4% from 2016 to 2025) that is about −0.1% a year for the price and +3.0% for the forecasts.
Compare Guararapes Confecções S.A. with another stock
Price, fair value, quality and upside side by side.
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Peer GroupⓘHow this stock ranks against its industry: the green marker is this stock, the band is the typical 25–75% peer range, and the tick is the median.Apparel Manufacturing · 228 stocks
Beats the industry median on 12/15 measures
Overall it ranks above its industry peers.
Valuation
Quality Score65 · Top 25%
Fair Value upside+200% · Top 25%
Profitability
Return on equity (TTM)28% · Top 25%
Return on assets4% · Above median
Net margin (TTM)14% · Top 25%
Operating margin (TTM)3% · Below median
Growth and dividend
Revenue growth5% · Above median
Dividend yield (TTM)33.5% · Top 25%
Balance sheet
Debt / equity0.37× · Highest 25%
Valuation Multiplesvs Apparel Manufacturing median · lower = cheaper
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Is Guararapes Confecções S.A. (RIAA3) overvalued or undervalued?
As of Sep 24, 2026, our model estimates a fair value of R$20.34 versus a price of R$6.78, about +200% upside (undervalued).
What is the fair value of RIAA3?
Our model-based fair value for Guararapes Confecções S.A. is R$20.34 (as of Sep 24, 2026), built from audited fundamentals. The current price: R$6.78.
What is the quality score of RIAA3?
Guararapes Confecções S.A. has a Quality Score of 65/100. It measures business quality (profitability, growth, cash flow, balance-sheet strength, investment discipline, share issuance). Market factors such as price momentum and volatility do not enter the number; they are shown separately in the detail view.
What is the price target for Guararapes Confecções S.A. (RIAA3)?
Our model-based price target is the fair value of R$20.34 (as of Sep 24, 2026) from 26 valuation models. Cautious scenario R$10.08, optimistic scenario R$33.93. It is a calculation from audited fundamentals, not an analyst target.
What is the Guararapes Confecções S.A. stock forecast for 2026?
Our models put fair value at R$20.34, about +200% upside versus a price of R$6.78 (undervalued). Cautious scenario R$10.08, optimistic scenario R$33.93. The calculation is refreshed regularly with new filings.
What is the revenue of Guararapes Confecções S.A. (RIAA3)?
Guararapes Confecções S.A. reported trailing-twelve-month revenue of about R$10.6B (latest available figure, as of Sep 24, 2026).
What growth is priced into Guararapes Confecções S.A. (RIAA3)?
For today's price to be fair in a discounted-cash-flow model, Guararapes Confecções S.A. would have to grow free cash flow by +3.2 % per year for five years (discount rate 12.7 %, then slowing evenly to 2 % perpetual growth by year ten). Over the last 3 years revenue grew +7.5 % per year. As of Sep 24, 2026.
What discount rate (WACC) does the fair value of RIAA3 use?
Our models discount Guararapes Confecções S.A. at 12.7 %: a base by market capitalisation (small), damped by beta 0.57, country premium for Brazil. The same rate applies in all 26 models.
What is a reverse DCF?
A reverse DCF turns the usual calculation around. Instead of deriving a value from assumptions, it takes today's price as given and asks: what free-cash-flow growth would a company have to deliver for exactly this price to be fair? The result is not a forecast but the expectation already priced in. For Guararapes Confecções S.A. that is +3.2 % per year a year over ten years, using the same discount rate (12.7 %) and the same formula as our fair value.
How much growth has Guararapes Confecções S.A. (RIAA3) delivered so far?
Over the past 3 years revenue at Guararapes Confecções S.A. grew +7.5 % a year. The price currently implies +3.2 % per year free-cash-flow growth a year. Comparing the two shows how much confidence is in the price: if it demands more than has been delivered, the business has to accelerate for the maths to work.
How fast is the sector of Guararapes Confecções S.A. (RIAA3) growing?
The median revenue growth in the sector is +5.9 % a year. That is the yardstick for the growth priced into Guararapes Confecções S.A. (+3.2 % per year a year): it shows whether the expectation is within the usual range or beyond it.
What is the free cash flow yield of Guararapes Confecções S.A. (RIAA3)?
The free-cash-flow yield on the price is 10.34 %: that much free cash flow Guararapes Confecções S.A. produces per unit of market value. When it exceeds the discount rate of our models (12.7 %), the business already earns more than its cost of capital demands, and the price needs little additional growth.
What is the intrinsic value of Guararapes Confecções S.A. (RIAA3)?
Intrinsic value and fair value mean the same thing: what the business is worth on its numbers, independent of the share price. For Guararapes Confecções S.A. it is R$20.34 per share (as of Sep 24, 2026), against a price of R$6.78. It is the blended result of 26 valuation models (cash flow, earnings, asset, dividend).
Is Guararapes Confecções S.A. stock overvalued or undervalued in 2026?
As of Sep 24, 2026, RIAA3 trades below its calculated fair value: price R$6.78, fair value R$20.34, a gap of about +200% (undervalued). The calculation is refreshed with each new quarterly report, so the verdict can change during the year.
Is fair value the same as the market price of RIAA3?
No. The price is what the market pays today (R$6.78); the fair value is what the company's own numbers justify (R$20.34). For Guararapes Confecções S.A. the two are R$13.56 per share apart. That gap is exactly why we show both numbers side by side.
How much is Guararapes Confecções S.A. worth?
The market values Guararapes Confecções S.A. at about R$4.3B (market capitalisation, as of Sep 24, 2026). Per share that is R$6.78; our models calculate a fair value of R$20.34 per share.
What do the bullish and bearish scenarios say about RIAA3?
Our models span a range for Guararapes Confecções S.A.: cautious scenario R$10.08, base R$20.34, optimistic R$33.93 per share (as of Sep 24, 2026, price R$6.78). The range comes from different growth and margin assumptions, not from analyst opinions.
What is the P/E ratio of RIAA3?
Guararapes Confecções S.A. trades at a price-to-earnings ratio of 2.3 (as of Sep 24, 2026). A P/E on its own says little: it compares the price with ONE year of profit, while our fair value of R$20.34 is built from several models across several years. Other multiples: PEG 0.5, P/B 0.8, P/S 0.4, EV/EBITDA 4.9.
What is the PEG ratio of RIAA3?
The PEG ratio of Guararapes Confecções S.A. is 0.54 (P/E divided by earnings growth, as of Sep 24, 2026). That is below 1, so growth is priced more cheaply than the earnings multiple alone suggests.
How solid is the balance sheet of Guararapes Confecções S.A. (RIAA3)?
Balance-sheet figures for Guararapes Confecções S.A. (as of Sep 24, 2026): return on equity 28.2%, debt of 0.37 per unit of equity. They feed the Quality Score of 65/100, which measures business quality independently of the share price.
How far is RIAA3 from its 52-week high?
Guararapes Confecções S.A. trades at R$6.78, about 35% below its 52-week high of R$10.43 and 8% above the low of R$6.26 (as of Sep 24, 2026). Distance from the high says nothing about value: that is what the fair value of R$20.34 is for.
Which stocks are comparable to Guararapes Confecções S.A.?
From the same area (Consumer Cyclical) we also value Ralph Lauren Corporation, Moncler S.p.A, Gildan Activewear Inc, LPP SA, among others. Each of them has its own fair-value calculation on this site using the same models, so the comparison is like for like.
Is Guararapes Confecções S.A. stock attractive at the current price?
The data as of Sep 24, 2026: price R$6.78, calculated fair value R$20.34 (+200%), Quality Score 65/100, from 26 models. Whether that fits your horizon and risk tolerance is your call. We provide the calculation, not investment advice.
How is the fair value of RIAA3 calculated?
We run Guararapes Confecções S.A. through 26 models from four families: discounted cash flow, earnings models, asset and balance-sheet models, and dividend models. Every model gets the same audited fundamentals; the result is the weighted average of R$20.34, with the spread shown as a cautious and an optimistic scenario.
Is it still worth investing in stocks now?
The global stock market currently sits 14.0 % above its aggregate fair value. Guararapes Confecções S.A. currently trades 200 % below its own fair value, and the market average says nothing about that. An expensive market is no reason to stay out and no reason to buy everything at once: keep a broad savings plan running, buy single stocks only with money you can do without, and hold part of your money liquid while the market is high. The full picture including sectors is on is it worth investing now.
What is the share price of Guararapes Confecções S.A. (RIAA3)?
The closing price on Sep 24, 2026 was R$6.78. Our model-based fair value is R$20.34, about +200% upside (undervalued). We carry closing prices from our data provider, not a live tick.
What should I pay attention to with Guararapes Confecções S.A. right now?
The price is below even our cautious bear case (R$10.08). The market is more pessimistic than our downside scenario. The model range is unusually wide (R$10.08 to R$33.93). The outcome hinges heavily on assumptions, so read the point estimate with caution. The large gap to fair value rests on thin data (low evidence): fewer applicable models and a shorter history. Read it with extra caution. Solid quality (65/100) at a price below fair value, the discount is the argument here, not the business quality.
Key figures of Guararapes Confecções S.A.
How large is the market capitalisation of Guararapes Confecções S.A. (RIAA3)?
The market capitalisation of Guararapes Confecções S.A. is R$4.3B (≈ $829M). The stock-market value of the whole company: share price times number of shares. It is what the market asks for the entire business today.
What is the P/S ratio of Guararapes Confecções S.A. (RIAA3)?
The price-to-sales ratio of Guararapes Confecções S.A. is 0.32 (P/E × margin). Price to sales: market value relative to yearly revenue. Useful when profit is thin or distorted.
What are the earnings per share of Guararapes Confecções S.A. (RIAA3)?
Earnings per share at Guararapes Confecções S.A. are R$3.01 (price ÷ EPS = P/E 2.3). Earnings per share over the last twelve months: total profit spread across every single share.
What is the net margin of Guararapes Confecções S.A. (RIAA3)?
The net margin of Guararapes Confecções S.A. is 14.1% (fiscal year 2025). How much of every unit of revenue ends up as profit. 10% means 10 cents of profit per dollar of sales.
What is the return on equity of Guararapes Confecções S.A. (RIAA3)?
The return on equity (ROE) of Guararapes Confecções S.A. is 28.2% (last twelve months). Profit relative to shareholders' equity, how efficiently the company works with its owners' money.
What is the EBIT return on assets of Guararapes Confecções S.A. (RIAA3)?
On an EBIT basis the return on assets of Guararapes Confecções S.A. is 6.6% (avg 4y). Operating profit (EBIT) relative to everything the company owns, as a multi-year average. It describes the business model rather than one good or bad year.
What is the operating margin of Guararapes Confecções S.A. (RIAA3)?
The operating margin of Guararapes Confecções S.A. is 3.0% (last twelve months). Profit from the core business (before interest and taxes) relative to revenue.
How fast is revenue growing at Guararapes Confecções S.A. (RIAA3)?
Revenue at Guararapes Confecções S.A. is growing +5.3% versus a year earlier (3y avg +7.5%). How much revenue grew versus a year earlier (YoY). The 3-year average next to it puts the single year in context.
How fast are earnings growing at Guararapes Confecções S.A. (RIAA3)?
Earnings per share at Guararapes Confecções S.A. are growing +412% versus a year earlier. How much earnings per share grew versus a year earlier.
How much net debt does Guararapes Confecções S.A. (RIAA3) carry?
The net debt of Guararapes Confecções S.A. is R$1.0B (fiscal year 2025, ≈ 3.0 yrs of FCF). Debt minus cash on hand. The note shows how many years of free cash flow could in theory pay it off.
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