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RLI Corp (RLI) fair value: what the stock is really worth

As of Sep 23, 2026: fair value of RLI Corp $40.33, price $56.85, upside -29.1%, quality 69 out of 100. Calculated from audited financials with 26 valuation models and 37 quality factors, updated daily.

  1. Fair value above price? No
  2. Good quality? Yes
  3. Add to watchlist

Financial Services · US · ISIN US7496071074

RC RLI Corp logo Broad data Sep 23, 2026

RLI Corp

RLI · US

Overvalued / MonitorQuality is not strong enough to offset the price risk.

!Fair value $40.33 · Overvalued (−29%)
✓Quality 69/100
✓Healthy Growth (revenue 5y +13.8 %/yr)
✓Highly profitable · 20.8% net margin (TTM)
✓Low debt · generates free cash flow
·1.13% dividend yield
!Mixed vs. peers (6/15)
✓Wide moat 70/100
!Insider activity 45/100
!Weak on future: 20 out of 100
!Weak on dividend: 23 out of 100
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What runs behind every stock

26 valuation models 8 families, DCF to NCAV 37 quality factors margins, balance sheet, cashflow, debt 6 AI factors moat, what no ratio measures 2,000+ data points verified, per stock, median

69 individual criteria per stock, every one traceable See the method →

Price vs Fair Value

$87.12 $43.93 Fair Value $40.33 Jun 2021 Sep 2026

White line = price, green steps = our fair value per fiscal year, dashed = 300-day average. As of Sep 23, 2026.

How to read this chart

60‑month range $43.93 – $87.12 · fair‑value band $28.36 – $50.42 · the $56.85 price screens above the $40.33 fair value. Green steps = our fair value per fiscal year (point-in-time, no hindsight). Dashed = 300-day average. As of Sep 23, 2026.

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Company profile

RLI Corp., an insurance holding company, provides property, casualty, and surety insurance products.

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RLI Corp., an insurance holding company, provides property, casualty, and surety insurance products. Its Casualty segment provides commercial excess, personal umbrella, general liability, transportation, and management liability coverages; professional liability and workers' compensation for office-based professional coverages; commercial automobile liability and physical damage insurance to local, intermediate and long haul truckers, public transportation entities, and other specialty commercial automobile risks; incidental related insurance coverages; inland marine coverages; directors and officers liability insurance, fiduciary liability and coverages, employment practice liability, public and private businesses risk, and home business insurance products. This segment also offers coverages for security guards and environmental liability for underground storage tanks, contractors and asbestos, and environmental remediation specialists; and professional liability coverages for errors and omission coverage for small to medium-sized design, technical, computer, and miscellaneous professionals. The company's Property segment offers commercial property insurance, such as fire, wind, difference in conditions, earthquake, flood, and collapse coverages; insurance for office buildings, apartments, condominiums, and industrial and mercantile structures; and cargo, hull, protection and indemnity, marine liability, inland marine, homeowners' and dwelling fire, and other property insurance products. Its Surety segment provides commercial surety bonds for medium and large-sized businesses; small bonds for businesses and individuals; and bonds for small to medium-sized contractors. The company offers reinsurance coverages. It markets its products through branch offices, wholesale and retail brokers, carrier partners, and underwriting and independent agents. RLI Corp. was incorporated in 1965 and is headquartered in Peoria, Illinois.

Stock analysis

RLI Corp (RLI) currently trades at $56.85, while our model-based Fair Value estimate is $40.33, implying the stock looks roughly 41.0% overvalued today.

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Valuation

Bull case: the Dividend Discount group reads highest at a median of $39.50 per share, and 1 of the 6 models we run sit above the $56.85 price.

Bear case: the Asset-Based group reads lowest at $12.96, and 5 of the 6 models stay below the price. Evidence for this calculation is high.

Scenario range: $28.36 (bear) to $50.42 (bull), the price of $56.85 sits above it. Bear and bull are the same models on cautious and optimistic assumptions, a range, not a price target.

Quality & growth

The Quality Score stands at 69/100 (solid quality), in the Financial Services sector.

Healthy Growth: Revenue growth appears healthy and is supported by profitability and cash-flow quality.

RLI Corp reported revenue of $1.9B in FY2025 versus $1.2B in FY2021, a compound +12.3%/yr. Reported net income was $403M in FY2025, compounding +9.6%/yr from FY2021.

Key figures

Market cap $5.2B · P/E ratio 13.3 · P/S ratio 2.84 · EPS (TTM) $4.29 · Dividend yield 1.1% · Net margin 21.4% · Return on equity 23.2% · Return on assets (EBIT) 9.2%.

Competitive moat

Our AI-assisted moat analysis scores the competitive advantage at 57 out of 100 (low confidence).

What moves the price

The share trades about 15% below its 52-week high and 19% above its 52-week low, currently below its 200-day average.

For context, the median of 10 Financial Services peers we cover trades at −12% fair-value upside, at −29%, RLI screens richer than that median.

Fair Value models

Bear $28.36 Fair Value $40.33 Bull $50.42
Model ⓘEach model values the company its own way (discounted cash flow, earnings, assets, dividends). The fair value above is their evidence-weighted blend, not the output of a single model. Based on fiscal year 2025 figures (about 9 months old). Earnings retained since then ($2.67 per share) are deliberately not added. Bear ⓘBear = the cautious scenario: the same model computed with conservative anchors (lower growth, margins and valuation multiples). Together with Bull it frames a plausible valuation range, not a price target.BaseBull ⓘBull = the optimistic scenario: the same model computed with favourable anchors (higher growth, margins and valuation multiples). Together with Bear it frames a plausible valuation range, not a price target. Evidence ⓘEvidence = how well-backed THIS model's estimate is for this stock (0–100): how complete and reliable its input data are, and how well the model fits the company. The final Fair Value is an evidence-weighted blend, so better-evidenced models count more. Green ≥70, amber 50–69, grey below 50.
Highest evidence
Gordon GGM $23.08 $45.98 $69.63 67
DDM Multi-Stage $23.08 $39.50 $48.54 67
Residual Income $26.38 $32.91 $99.03 65
All 6 models by family
Dividend Discount
Gordon GGM $23.08 $45.98 $69.63 67
DDM Multi-Stage $23.08 $39.50 $48.54 67
Multiples
P/E Multiple $42.77 $57.03 $71.29 63
P/B Multiple $20.31 $27.08 $33.85 55
Asset-Based
NCAV (Graham) $9.67 $12.96 $19.34 54
Economic Profit
Residual Income $26.38 $32.91 $99.03 65

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Quality Score breakdown

Overall quality 69/100

Of which business quality 67 · Market factors (momentum, volatility) 53

Profitability 49
Margins and returns on capital today
Quality Growth 62
Are margins and returns improving?
Cashflow 92
Earnings quality: real cash, not paper profit
Fin. Strength 58
Balance sheet, leverage, solvency risk
Investment 61
Disciplined investing over empire-building
Low Volatility 87
Calm price path (market factor)
Momentum 42
Price trend over the last 3–12 months (market factor)
52W Momentum 35
Distance to the 52-week high (market factor)
Net Issuance 82
Share count: buybacks or dilution?

Open the full quality analysis →

Revenue & earnings trend

Growth Quality ⓘGrowth is valuable only when reinvestment earns attractive returns (Aswath Damodaran): sustainable growth depends on return on capital, reinvestment and efficiency. Basis: total company revenue over the periods shown on the cards (3Y/5Y/all years), not per share, so a merger can show up as a growth jump; per-share earnings growth is in the value-creation card. 100/100
Revenue growth appears healthy and is supported by profitability and cash-flow quality.
Revenue growth 1 year
+6.3%
Revenue growth 3 years ⓘMeasures the company's TOTAL revenue from reported annual statements: compound average growth per year (CAGR) from the fiscal year 3, 5 or N years back to the most recent comparable fiscal year. Not per share: buybacks do not change this number, and a merger can appear as a growth jump. Per-share growth (which does include buybacks) is in the value-creation card.
+3.5%
Revenue growth 5 years ⓘMeasures the company's TOTAL revenue from reported annual statements: compound average growth per year (CAGR) from the fiscal year 3, 5 or N years back to the most recent comparable fiscal year. Not per share: buybacks do not change this number, and a merger can appear as a growth jump. Per-share growth (which does include buybacks) is in the value-creation card.
+13.8%
Start year 2020 (pandemic). Over 10 years: +9.0% a year
Revenue growth 40 years ⓘMeasures the company's TOTAL revenue from reported annual statements: compound average growth per year (CAGR) from the fiscal year 3, 5 or N years back to the most recent comparable fiscal year. Not per share: buybacks do not change this number, and a merger can appear as a growth jump. Per-share growth (which does include buybacks) is in the value-creation card.
+8.6%
What shareholders gained per year (last 5 years) ⓘWhat the business itself delivers per year: earnings growth per share plus the dividend yield. This is what you get IF the market keeps valuing the stock the same way: it contains no assumption about the market changing its mind. Computed per share, so buybacks count and a merger does not pass as growth. For a company that pays no dividend it is pure earnings growth per share. Period: earnings growth per share as CAGR over the last 5 reported fiscal years (annual statements), plus the current dividend yield. The start value is the median of the three years around the start, so a single crisis year (a pandemic or a write-down) does not distort the rate.
+1.7%
Earnings growth per share plus dividend.
Earnings per share, growth per year+0.6%
Dividend (yield on the price)1.1%
Pace: 5 vs 10 years ⓘTwo data points, not a trend model: earnings growth per share over the last 5 fiscal years against the last 10. Labelled "steady" when both rates are within 3 percentage points of each other, otherwise picking up or flattening. Shown only when ten years of history exist.1% vs 11%, slowing
Profit margin 2020 to 2025 ⓘOperating margin then vs now, from reported annual statements. A falling margin after a boom year is the classic peak-earnings signal: the growth rate then leans on an inflated base.19% → 28%
Start year 2020 (pandemic)

Growth Forecast

Little optimism in the price
The price assumes less growth than the company has delivered so far and less than analysts expect.
What the price assumes ⓘThis turns our valuation around: instead of asking what the share is worth, it asks what growth the current price requires. It uses the cash the company keeps after all spending (free cash flow), the same discount rate as our models, five years of growth, then slowing evenly to 2 % a year by year ten. Compared with the analysts' sales forecasts extended to the same five years (at least three analysts, for context only, it does not enter the Fair Value): within 3 percentage points counts as "in line" (amber), below that little optimism (green), above that a lot of optimism (red).
−8.3%
Yearly growth needed for the next five years to justify today's price.
What forecasts expect ⓘAnalysts publish sales forecasts for the next two fiscal years. For the years after that, growth slows evenly to 2 % a year by year ten (2 % is the long-run rate our models use). Projected years are marked as such.
+2.3%
Yearly sales growth analysts expect, extended to five years.
After inflation (USA: IMF forecast 2.4% a year to 2030, 3.1% from 2016 to 2025) that is about −10.4% a year for the price and −0.1% for the forecasts.
Forecast 2026 (sales)−4.9%
Forecast 2027 (sales)+4.6%
Projected 2028 (sales)+4.3%
Projected 2029 (sales)+4.0%
Projected 2030 (sales)+3.6%

RLI screens 41% overvalued. Compare with The Progressive Corporation →

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Peer GroupⓘHow this stock ranks against its industry: the green marker is this stock, the band is the typical 25–75% peer range, and the tick is the median.Insurance - Property & Casualty · 119 stocks

Beats the industry median on 6/15 measures
A mixed picture versus its industry peers.
Valuation
Quality Score 69 · Top 25%
Fair Value upside −29% · Below median
Profitability
Return on equity (TTM) 23% · Top 25%
Return on assets 5% · Top 25%
Net margin (TTM) 21% · Top 25%
Operating margin (TTM) 16% · Above median
Growth and dividend
Revenue growth 4% · Below median
Dividend yield (TTM) 1.1% · Bottom 25%
Balance sheet
Debt / equity 0.06× · Below median

Valuation Multiplesvs Insurance - Property & Casualty median · lower = cheaper

P/E (TTM) 13.3× · Pricier than median
P/B 2.95× · Priciest 25%
P/S (TTM) 2.76× · Priciest 25%
P/FCF 8.6× · Pricier than median
EV/EBITDA 10.3× · Priciest 25%
PEG 1.73× · Pricier than median

Strength profile in five axes (Snowflake)

VALUEFUTUREPASTHEALTHDIVIDEND
This stock
VALUEFUTUREPASTHEALTHDIVIDEND
Sector peers
VALUE (fair-value potential)0 · sector 20
FUTURE (revenue growth)20 · sector 32
PAST (return on equity)93 · sector 56
HEALTH (low debt)97 · sector 91
DIVIDEND (yield)23 · sector 50

VALUE 0: the price sits above our fair-value range.

Context: sector, industry, market

Values & ESG

Does this company touch areas you may want to avoid? The classification is inferred from sector and industry.

None of the checked exposures detected

Similar stocks

10 more Insurance - Property & Casualty stocks, each showing price versus our Fair Value estimate.

Stock Price Fair Value vs Fair Value
The Progressive Corporation PGR $206.94 $160.25 −23%
Chubb Limited CB $335.77 $234.73 −30%
The Travelers Companies, Inc TRV $362.01 $274.42 −24%
The Allstate Corporation ALL $229.50 $316.11 +38%
The People's Insurance Company 601319 ¥8.07 ¥9.25 +15%
PICC Property and Casualty Company 2328 HK$16.84 HK$18.92 +12%
Intact Financial Corporation IFC C$254.29 C$167.46 −34%
Fairfax Financial Holdings FFH C$2,260 C$3,226 +43%
Cincinnati Financial Corporation CINF $165.83 $146.70 −12%
W. R. Berkley Corporation WRB $68.17 $47.08 −31%

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Cite: Fair Value Calculator (2026). "RLI Corp Fair Value". https://www.fairvalue-calculator.com/stock/RLI

Frequently asked questions

Is RLI Corp (RLI) overvalued or undervalued?
As of Sep 23, 2026, our model estimates a fair value of $40.33 versus a price of $56.85, about −29% upside (overvalued).
What is the fair value of RLI?
Our model-based fair value for RLI Corp is $40.33 (as of Sep 23, 2026), built from audited fundamentals. The current price: $56.85.
What is the quality score of RLI?
RLI Corp has a Quality Score of 69/100. It measures business quality (profitability, growth, cash flow, balance-sheet strength, investment discipline, share issuance). Market factors such as price momentum and volatility do not enter the number; they are shown separately in the detail view.
What is the price target for RLI Corp (RLI)?
Our model-based price target is the fair value of $40.33 (as of Sep 23, 2026) from 6 valuation models. Cautious scenario $28.36, optimistic scenario $50.42. It is a calculation from audited fundamentals, not an analyst target.
What is the RLI Corp stock forecast for 2026?
Our models put fair value at $40.33, about −29% upside versus a price of $56.85 (overvalued). Cautious scenario $28.36, optimistic scenario $50.42. The calculation is refreshed regularly with new filings.
What is the revenue of RLI Corp (RLI)?
RLI Corp reported trailing-twelve-month revenue of about $1.9B (latest available figure, as of Sep 23, 2026).
Does RLI Corp pay a dividend?
RLI Corp currently shows a dividend yield of about 1.13% relative to its recent price (as of Sep 23, 2026).
What growth is priced into RLI Corp (RLI)?
For today's price to be fair in a discounted-cash-flow model, RLI Corp would have to grow free cash flow by -8.3 % per year for five years (discount rate 8.5 %, then slowing evenly to 2 % perpetual growth by year ten). Over the last 5 years revenue grew +13.8 % per year. As of Sep 23, 2026.
What discount rate (WACC) does the fair value of RLI use?
Our models discount RLI Corp at 8.5 %: a base by market capitalisation (mid), damped by beta 0.33, country premium for USA. The same rate applies in all 26 models.
What is a reverse DCF?
A reverse DCF turns the usual calculation around. Instead of deriving a value from assumptions, it takes today's price as given and asks: what free-cash-flow growth would a company have to deliver for exactly this price to be fair? The result is not a forecast but the expectation already priced in. For RLI Corp that is -8.3 % per year a year over ten years, using the same discount rate (8.5 %) and the same formula as our fair value.
How much growth has RLI Corp (RLI) delivered so far?
Over the past 5 years revenue at RLI Corp grew +13.8 % a year. The price currently implies -8.3 % per year free-cash-flow growth a year. Comparing the two shows how much confidence is in the price: if it demands more than has been delivered, the business has to accelerate for the maths to work.
How fast is the sector of RLI Corp (RLI) growing?
The median revenue growth in the sector is +8.4 % a year. That is the yardstick for the growth priced into RLI Corp (-8.3 % per year a year): it shows whether the expectation is within the usual range or beyond it.
What is the free cash flow yield of RLI Corp (RLI)?
The free-cash-flow yield on the price is 11.61 %: that much free cash flow RLI Corp produces per unit of market value. When it exceeds the discount rate of our models (8.5 %), the business already earns more than its cost of capital demands, and the price needs little additional growth.
What is the intrinsic value of RLI Corp (RLI)?
Intrinsic value and fair value mean the same thing: what the business is worth on its numbers, independent of the share price. For RLI Corp it is $40.33 per share (as of Sep 23, 2026), against a price of $56.85. It is the blended result of 6 valuation models (cash flow, earnings, asset, dividend).
Is RLI Corp stock overvalued or undervalued in 2026?
As of Sep 23, 2026, RLI trades above its calculated fair value: price $56.85, fair value $40.33, a gap of about −29% (overvalued). The calculation is refreshed with each new quarterly report, so the verdict can change during the year.
Is fair value the same as the market price of RLI?
No. The price is what the market pays today ($56.85); the fair value is what the company's own numbers justify ($40.33). For RLI Corp the two are $16.52 per share apart. That gap is exactly why we show both numbers side by side.
How much is RLI Corp worth?
The market values RLI Corp at about $5.2B (market capitalisation, as of Sep 23, 2026). Per share that is $56.85; our models calculate a fair value of $40.33 per share.
What do the bullish and bearish scenarios say about RLI?
Our models span a range for RLI Corp: cautious scenario $28.36, base $40.33, optimistic $50.42 per share (as of Sep 23, 2026, price $56.85). The range comes from different growth and margin assumptions, not from analyst opinions.
What is the P/E ratio of RLI?
RLI Corp trades at a price-to-earnings ratio of 13.3 (as of Sep 23, 2026). A P/E on its own says little: it compares the price with ONE year of profit, while our fair value of $40.33 is built from several models across several years. Other multiples: PEG 1.7, P/B 3.0, P/S 2.8, EV/EBITDA 10.3.
What is the PEG ratio of RLI?
The PEG ratio of RLI Corp is 1.73 (P/E divided by earnings growth, as of Sep 23, 2026). That is above 1, so the growth is already paid for in the price.
How solid is the balance sheet of RLI Corp (RLI)?
Balance-sheet figures for RLI Corp (as of Sep 23, 2026): return on equity 23.2%, debt of 0.06 per unit of equity. They feed the Quality Score of 69/100, which measures business quality independently of the share price.
How far is RLI from its 52-week high?
RLI Corp trades at $56.85, about 15% below its 52-week high of $66.62 and 19% above the low of $47.60 (as of Sep 23, 2026). Distance from the high says nothing about value: that is what the fair value of $40.33 is for.
Which stocks are comparable to RLI Corp?
From the same area (Financial Services) we also value The Progressive Corporation, Chubb Limited, The Travelers Companies, Inc, The Allstate Corporation, among others. Each of them has its own fair-value calculation on this site using the same models, so the comparison is like for like.
Is RLI Corp stock attractive at the current price?
The data as of Sep 23, 2026: price $56.85, calculated fair value $40.33 (−29%), Quality Score 69/100, from 6 models. Whether that fits your horizon and risk tolerance is your call. We provide the calculation, not investment advice.
How is the fair value of RLI calculated?
We run RLI Corp through 6 models from four families: discounted cash flow, earnings models, asset and balance-sheet models, and dividend models. Every model gets the same audited fundamentals; the result is the weighted average of $40.33, with the spread shown as a cautious and an optimistic scenario.
Is it still worth investing in stocks now?
The global stock market currently sits 14.1 % above its aggregate fair value. RLI Corp itself currently trades above fair value. An expensive market is no reason to stay out and no reason to buy everything at once: keep a broad savings plan running, buy single stocks only with money you can do without, and hold part of your money liquid while the market is high. The full picture including sectors is on is it worth investing now.
What is the share price of RLI Corp (RLI)?
The closing price on Sep 23, 2026 was $56.85. Our model-based fair value is $40.33, about −29% upside (overvalued). We carry closing prices from our data provider, not a live tick.
What should I pay attention to with RLI Corp right now?
The price sits above even our optimistic bull case ($50.42). The favourable scenario is already priced in. Solid but not exceptional quality (69/100) and above fair value, neither a clear bargain nor a standout compounder. For a financial, book-value and earnings-based methods matter more than a cash-flow DCF, which fits banks and insurers poorly.
Where does the earnings growth of RLI Corp (RLI) come from?
Earnings per share at RLI Corp grew +11.2 % a year from 2014 to 2025. Broken into its drivers: revenue per share +8.4 %, EBIT margin +1.3 %, tax rate +1.3 %, residual (interest, one-offs) −0.1 %. The four rates multiply to the earnings growth rate, they do not add up. Start and end are three-year averages so a single exceptional year does not distort the result.

Key figures of RLI Corp

How large is the market capitalisation of RLI Corp (RLI)?
The market capitalisation of RLI Corp is $5.2B. The stock-market value of the whole company: share price times number of shares. It is what the market asks for the entire business today.
What is the P/S ratio of RLI Corp (RLI)?
The price-to-sales ratio of RLI Corp is 2.84 (P/E × margin). Price to sales: market value relative to yearly revenue. Useful when profit is thin or distorted.
What are the earnings per share of RLI Corp (RLI)?
Earnings per share at RLI Corp are $4.29 (price ÷ EPS = P/E 13.3). Earnings per share over the last twelve months: total profit spread across every single share.
What is the dividend yield of RLI Corp (RLI)?
The dividend yield of RLI Corp is 1.1% (payout 14.9%). Yearly dividend relative to the share price. 3% pays 3 per 100 invested. Below: how much of profit is used for it.
What is the net margin of RLI Corp (RLI)?
The net margin of RLI Corp is 21.4% (fiscal year 2025). How much of every unit of revenue ends up as profit. 10% means 10 cents of profit per dollar of sales.
What is the return on equity of RLI Corp (RLI)?
The return on equity (ROE) of RLI Corp is 23.2% (last twelve months). Profit relative to shareholders' equity, how efficiently the company works with its owners' money.
What is the EBIT return on assets of RLI Corp (RLI)?
On an EBIT basis the return on assets of RLI Corp is 9.2% (avg 5y). Operating profit (EBIT) relative to everything the company owns, as a multi-year average. It describes the business model rather than one good or bad year.
What is the operating margin of RLI Corp (RLI)?
The operating margin of RLI Corp is 15.9% (last twelve months). Profit from the core business (before interest and taxes) relative to revenue.
How fast is revenue growing at RLI Corp (RLI)?
Revenue at RLI Corp is growing +4.0% versus a year earlier (3y avg +3.5%). How much revenue grew versus a year earlier (YoY). The 3-year average next to it puts the single year in context.
How fast are earnings growing at RLI Corp (RLI)?
Earnings per share at RLI Corp are growing −12.2% versus a year earlier. How much earnings per share grew versus a year earlier.
How much net debt does RLI Corp (RLI) carry?
The net debt of RLI Corp is $48.4M (fiscal year 2025, ≈ 0.1 yrs of FCF). Debt minus cash on hand. The note shows how many years of free cash flow could in theory pay it off.
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