Alfa Holdings S.A (RPAD3) fair value: what the stock is really worth
As of Nov 12, 2026: fair value (intrinsic value) of Alfa Holdings S.A stock BRL 8.46, price BRL 7.20, upside +17.5%, quality 71 out of 100. Rating: undervalued. Calculated from audited financials with 12 of our 26 valuation models and 37 quality factors, updated daily.
69 individual criteria per stock, every one traceableSee the method →
Price vs Fair Value
White line = price, green steps = our fair value per fiscal year. As of Nov 14, 2026.
How to read this chart
60‑month range R$1.43 – R$9.91 · fair‑value band R$8.46 – R$9.08 · the R$7.20 price screens below the R$8.46 fair value. Green steps = our fair value per fiscal year (point-in-time, no hindsight). As of Nov 14, 2026.
Follow Alfa Holdings in your weekly email
Every Wednesday you see whether Alfa Holdings is on track or worth a review, plus price against fair value. Free, up to 3 stocks.
We send you a confirmation link. Unsubscribe with one click.
Alfa Holdings S.A. engages in the provision of financial products in Brazil. It also engages in the provision of credit to legal entities and individuals, private banking, wealth management, asset management, investment banking, and insurance.
Show moreShow less
The company was formerly known as Real S.A. and changed its name to Alfa Holdings S.A. in April 1999. Alfa Holdings S.A. was incorporated in 1959 and is based in São Paulo, Brazil. Alfa Holdings S.A. operates as a subsidiary of Banco Safra S.A.
Stock analysis
Alfa Holdings S.A (RPAD3) currently trades at R$7.20, while our model-based Fair Value estimate is R$8.46, implying the stock looks roughly 15% undervalued today.
Show more
Valuation
Bull case: the Earnings-Based group reads highest at a median of R$40.15 per share, and 6 of the 12 models we run sit above the R$7.20 price.
Bear case: the Dividend Discount group reads lowest at R$1.03, and 6 of the 12 models stay below the price. Data coverage for this calculation is high.
Scenario range: R$8.46 (bear) to R$9.08 (bull), the price of R$7.20 sits below it. Bear and bull are the same models on cautious and optimistic assumptions, a range, not a price target.
Quality & growth
The Quality Score stands at 71/100 (solid quality), in the Industrials sector.
Mixed Growth: Revenue is growing, but margins or cash flow do not fully confirm the trend.
Alfa Holdings S.A reported revenue of R$71.8M in FY2025 versus R$1.4M in FY2021, a compound +169.4%/yr. Reported net income was R$82.2M in FY2025, compounding +43.5%/yr from FY2021.
Key figures
Market cap R$610M (≈ $108M) Micro · P/E ratio 8.9 · P/S ratio 10.2 · EPS (TTM) R$0.8400 · Dividend yield 1.4% · Net margin 115% · Return on equity 7.4% · Return on assets (EBIT) 0.9% (5-year average).
Competitive moat
Our AI-assisted moat analysis scores the competitive advantage at 52 out of 100 (low confidence).
What moves the price
The share trades about 4% below its 52-week high and 46% above its 52-week low, currently above its 200-day average.
For context, the median of 10 Industrials peers we cover trades at 6% fair-value upside, at 18%, RPAD3 screens cheaper than that median.
Fair Value models
BearR$8.46Fair Value R$8.46BullR$9.08
Price R$7.20 · Upside +17.5%
Model ⓘEach model values the company its own way (discounted cash flow, earnings, assets, dividends). The fair value above starts from their evidence-weighted blend, not from a single model. In cyclical trough or peak years, after dilution or a stock split it is adjusted afterwards, so it can sit above or below the models. Based on fiscal year 2025 figures (about 10 months old). Earnings retained since then (R$0.7318 per share) are deliberately not added.Bear ⓘBear = the cautious scenario: the same model computed with conservative anchors (lower growth, margins and valuation multiples). Together with Bull it frames a plausible valuation range, not a price target.BaseBull ⓘBull = the optimistic scenario: the same model computed with favourable anchors (higher growth, margins and valuation multiples). Together with Bear it frames a plausible valuation range, not a price target. If a model's bull case is above four times its base value, the table shows that limit with a > sign (like the overall Bull above): beyond it no assumption holds.Coverage ⓘCoverage = how well-backed THIS model's estimate is for this stock (0–100): how complete and reliable its input data are, and how well the model fits the company. The final Fair Value is an evidence-weighted blend, so better-evidenced models count more. Green ≥70, amber 50–69, grey below 50.
Growth Quality ⓘGrowth is valuable only when reinvestment earns attractive returns (Aswath Damodaran): sustainable growth depends on return on capital, reinvestment and efficiency. Basis: total company revenue over the periods shown on the cards (3Y/5Y/all years), not per share, so a merger can show up as a growth jump; per-share earnings growth is in the value-creation card.67/100
Revenue is growing, but margins or cash flow do not fully confirm the trend.
Revenue growth 1 year
+10,020.0%
Revenue growth 3 years ⓘMeasures the company's TOTAL revenue from reported annual statements: compound average growth per year (CAGR) from the fiscal year 3, 5 or N years back to the most recent comparable fiscal year. Not per share: buybacks do not change this number, and a merger can appear as a growth jump. Per-share growth (which does include buybacks) is in the value-creation card.
+109.8%
Revenue growth 5 years ⓘMeasures the company's TOTAL revenue from reported annual statements: compound average growth per year (CAGR) from the fiscal year 3, 5 or N years back to the most recent comparable fiscal year. Not per share: buybacks do not change this number, and a merger can appear as a growth jump. Per-share growth (which does include buybacks) is in the value-creation card.
+167.6%
Start year 2020 (pandemic)
’13
’14
’15
’16
’17
’18
’19
’20
’21
’22
’24
’25
What shareholders gained per year (last 5 years), in BRL ⓘWhat the business itself delivers per year: earnings growth per share plus the dividend yield. This is what you get IF the market keeps valuing the stock the same way: it contains no assumption about the market changing its mind. Computed per share, so buybacks count and a merger does not pass as growth. For a company that pays no dividend it is pure earnings growth per share. Period: earnings growth per share as CAGR over the last 5 reported fiscal years (annual statements), plus the current dividend yield. The start value is the median of the three years around the start, so a single crisis year (a pandemic or a write-down) does not distort the rate. Basis: EBIT basis. Measured in BRL: this currency has depreciated against the euro and dollar over the long run, so part of the nominal rate is currency erosion that never reaches a EUR/USD investor.
≈ +10.9%
Earnings growth per share plus dividend.
Earnings per share, growth per year+9.5%
Dividend (yield on the price)1.4%
Pace: 5 vs 10 years ⓘTwo data points, not a trend model: earnings growth per share over the last 5 fiscal years against the last 10. Labelled "steady" when both rates are within 3 percentage points of each other, otherwise picking up or flattening. Shown only when ten years of history exist.19.8% vs 4.9%, picking up
Profit margin 2020 to 2025 ⓘOperating margin then vs now, from reported annual statements. A falling margin after a boom year is the classic peak-earnings signal: the growth rate then leans on an inflated base.−866% → 98%
Pace: the 5-year rate starts in 2020 (pandemic)
⚠ Rate on operating basis: 2025 sits 98% above its own trend.
Growth Forecast
Little optimism in the price
The price assumes less growth than the company has delivered so far.
What the price assumes ⓘThis turns our valuation around: instead of asking what the share is worth, it asks what growth the current price requires. It uses the cash the company keeps after all spending (free cash flow), the same discount rate as our models, five years of growth, then slowing evenly to 2 % a year by year ten. Compared with the analysts' sales forecasts extended to the same five years (at least three analysts, for context only, it does not enter the Fair Value): within 3 percentage points counts as "in line" (amber), below that little optimism (green), above that a lot of optimism (red).
+32.0%
Yearly growth needed for the next five years to justify today's price.
What forecasts expect
n/a
No analyst forecast available.
After inflation (Brazil: IMF forecast 3.3% a year to 2030, 5.4% from 2016 to 2025) that is about +27.8% a year for the price.
Price, fair value, quality and upside side by side.
Free, no sign-up
Peer GroupⓘHow this stock ranks against its industry: the green marker is this stock, the band is the typical 25–75% peer range, and the tick is the median.Conglomerates · 351 stocks
Beats the industry median on 10/13 measures
Overall it ranks above its industry peers.
Valuation
Quality Score71 · Top 25%
Fair Value upside+17.5% · Above median
Profitability
Return on equity (12 months)7.4% · Above median
Return on assets8.0% · Top 25%
Net margin (12 months)114.6% · Top 25%
Operating margin (12 months)0.0% · Bottom 25%
Growth and dividend
Revenue growth (quarter YoY)470.2% · Top 25%
Dividend yield (12 months)1.4% · Below median
Valuation Multiplesvs Conglomerates median · lower = cheaper
P/E (12 months)8.9× · Cheaper than median
P/B0.11× · Cheapest 25%
P/S (12 months)13.86× · Priciest 25%
Price / free cash flow (fiscal year)8.1× · Cheaper than median
For bloggers, editors and developers: paste this into your site or blog (a “Custom HTML” block in WordPress), it shows the current fair value and links back here. Free, plain HTML, and welcome. Full data streams (CSV/JSON) at /developers.
Is Alfa Holdings S.A (RPAD3) overvalued or undervalued?
As of Nov 14, 2026, our model estimates a fair value of R$8.46 versus a price of R$7.20, about +18% upside (undervalued).
What is the fair value of RPAD3?
Our model-based fair value for Alfa Holdings S.A is R$8.46 (as of Nov 14, 2026), built from audited fundamentals. The current price: R$7.20.
What is the quality score of RPAD3?
Alfa Holdings S.A has a Quality Score of 71/100. It measures business quality (profitability, growth, cash flow, balance-sheet strength, investment discipline, share issuance). Market factors such as price momentum and volatility do not enter the number; they are shown separately in the detail view.
What is the price target for Alfa Holdings S.A (RPAD3)?
Our model-based price target is the fair value of R$8.46 (as of Nov 14, 2026) from 12 valuation models. Cautious scenario R$8.46, optimistic scenario R$9.08. It is a calculation from audited fundamentals, not an analyst target.
What is the Alfa Holdings S.A stock forecast for 2026?
Our models put fair value at R$8.46, about +18% upside versus a price of R$7.20 (undervalued). Cautious scenario R$8.46, optimistic scenario R$9.08. The calculation is refreshed regularly with new filings.
Does Alfa Holdings S.A pay a dividend?
Alfa Holdings S.A currently shows a dividend yield of 1.38% relative to its recent price (as of Nov 14, 2026).
How much is the dividend of Alfa Holdings S.A (RPAD3)?
Alfa Holdings S.A has a dividend yield of 1.4%.
What growth is priced into Alfa Holdings S.A (RPAD3)?
For today's price to be fair in a discounted-cash-flow model, Alfa Holdings S.A would have to grow free cash flow by +32.0 % per year for five years (discount rate 14.2 %, then slowing evenly to 2 % perpetual growth by year ten). Over the last 5 years revenue grew +167.6 % per year. As of Nov 14, 2026.
What discount rate (WACC) does the fair value of RPAD3 use?
Our models discount Alfa Holdings S.A at 14.2 %: a base by market capitalisation (micro), damped by beta 0.09, country premium for Brazil. The same rate applies in all 26 models.
What is a reverse DCF?
A reverse DCF turns the usual calculation around. Instead of deriving a value from assumptions, it takes today's price as given and asks: what free-cash-flow growth would a company have to deliver for exactly this price to be fair? The result is not a forecast but the expectation already priced in. For Alfa Holdings S.A that is +32.0 % per year for five years, then slowing evenly to 2 % by year ten, using the same discount rate (14.2 %) and the same formula as our fair value.
How much growth has Alfa Holdings S.A (RPAD3) delivered so far?
Over the past 5 years revenue at Alfa Holdings S.A grew +167.6 % a year. The price currently implies free-cash-flow growth of +32.0 % per year. Comparing the two shows how much confidence is in the price: if it demands more than has been delivered, the business has to accelerate for the maths to work.
How fast is the sector of Alfa Holdings S.A (RPAD3) growing?
The median revenue growth in the sector is +7.9 % a year. That is the yardstick for the growth priced into Alfa Holdings S.A (+32.0 % per year): it shows whether the expectation is within the usual range or beyond it.
What is the free cash flow yield of Alfa Holdings S.A (RPAD3)?
The free-cash-flow yield on the price is 2.19 %: that much free cash flow Alfa Holdings S.A produces per unit of market value. When it exceeds the discount rate of our models (14.2 %), the business already earns more than its cost of capital demands, and the price needs little additional growth.
What is the intrinsic value of Alfa Holdings S.A (RPAD3)?
Intrinsic value and fair value mean the same thing: what the business is worth on its numbers, independent of the share price. For Alfa Holdings S.A it is R$8.46 per share (as of Nov 14, 2026), against a price of R$7.20. It is the blended result of 12 valuation models in 7 families (DCF Models, Earnings-Based, Dividend Discount, Multiples, Asset-Based, Growth DCF, Economic Profit).
Is Alfa Holdings S.A stock overvalued or undervalued in 2026?
As of Nov 14, 2026, RPAD3 trades below its calculated fair value: price R$7.20, fair value R$8.46, a gap of about +18% (undervalued). The calculation is refreshed with each new quarterly report, so the verdict can change during the year.
Is fair value the same as the market price of RPAD3?
No. The price is what the market pays today (R$7.20); the fair value is what the company's own numbers justify (R$8.46). For Alfa Holdings S.A the two are R$1.26 per share apart. That gap is exactly why we show both numbers side by side.
How much is Alfa Holdings S.A worth?
The market values Alfa Holdings S.A at about R$610M (market capitalisation, as of Nov 14, 2026). Per share that is R$7.20; our models calculate a fair value of R$8.46 per share.
What do the bullish and bearish scenarios say about RPAD3?
Our models span a range for Alfa Holdings S.A: cautious scenario R$8.46, base R$8.46, optimistic R$9.08 per share (as of Nov 14, 2026, price R$7.20). The range comes from different growth and margin assumptions, not from analyst opinions.
What is the P/E ratio of RPAD3?
Alfa Holdings S.A trades at a price-to-earnings ratio of 8.9 (as of Nov 14, 2026). A P/E on its own says little: it compares the price with ONE year of profit, while our fair value of R$8.46 is built from several models across several years. Median P/E at fiscal year-end, 8 fiscal years (2017 to 2025), reported earnings: 12.1. Other multiples: P/B 0.1, P/S 13.9, EV/EBITDA 1.2.
How solid is the balance sheet of Alfa Holdings S.A (RPAD3)?
Balance-sheet figures for Alfa Holdings S.A (as of Nov 14, 2026): return on equity 7.4%. They feed the Quality Score of 71/100, which measures business quality independently of the share price.
How far is RPAD3 from its 52-week high?
Alfa Holdings S.A trades at R$7.20, about 4% below its 52-week high of R$7.50 and 46% above the low of R$4.93 (as of Nov 12, 2026). Distance from the high says nothing about value: that is what the fair value of R$8.46 is for.
Which stocks are comparable to Alfa Holdings S.A?
From the same area (Industrials) we also value 3M Company, Honeywell International Inc, Swire Pacific Limited, SGH Limited, among others. Each of them has its own fair-value calculation on this site using the same models, so the comparison is like for like.
Is Alfa Holdings S.A stock attractive at the current price?
The data as of Nov 14, 2026: price R$7.20, calculated fair value R$8.46 (+18%), Quality Score 71/100, from 12 models. Whether that fits your horizon and risk tolerance is your call. We provide the calculation, not investment advice.
How is the fair value of RPAD3 calculated?
We run Alfa Holdings S.A through 12 models from 7 families: DCF Models, Earnings-Based, Dividend Discount, Multiples, Asset-Based, Growth DCF, Economic Profit. Every model gets the same audited fundamentals; the fair value of R$8.46 builds on their evidence-weighted average, with the spread shown as a cautious and an optimistic scenario.
Is it still worth investing in stocks now?
The global stock market currently sits 13.9% above its aggregate fair value. Alfa Holdings S.A currently trades 15% below its own fair value, and the market average says nothing about that. An expensive market is no reason to stay out and no reason to buy everything at once: keep a broad savings plan running, buy single stocks only with money you can do without, and hold part of your money liquid while the market is high. The full picture including sectors is on is it worth investing now.
What is the share price of Alfa Holdings S.A (RPAD3)?
The closing price on Nov 12, 2026 was R$7.20. Our model-based fair value is R$8.46, about +18% upside (undervalued). We carry closing prices from our data provider, not a live tick.
What should I pay attention to with Alfa Holdings S.A right now?
The price is below even our cautious bear case (R$8.46). The market is more pessimistic than our downside scenario. The models converge in a tight band (R$8.46 to R$9.08), unusually little disagreement for a valuation.
Key figures of Alfa Holdings S.A
How large is the market capitalisation of Alfa Holdings S.A (RPAD3)?
The market capitalisation of Alfa Holdings S.A is R$610M (≈ $108M). The stock-market value of the whole company: share price times number of shares. It is what the market asks for the entire business today.
What is the P/S ratio of Alfa Holdings S.A (RPAD3)?
The price-to-sales ratio of Alfa Holdings S.A is 10.2 (P/E × margin). Price to sales: market value relative to yearly revenue. Useful when profit is thin or distorted.
What are the earnings per share of Alfa Holdings S.A (RPAD3)?
Earnings per share at Alfa Holdings S.A are R$0.8400 (price ÷ EPS = P/E 8.9). Earnings per share over the last twelve months: total profit spread across every single share.
What is the dividend yield of Alfa Holdings S.A (RPAD3)?
The dividend yield of Alfa Holdings S.A is 1.4% (payout 11.8%). Yearly dividend relative to the share price. 3% pays 3 per 100 invested. Below: how much of profit is used for it.
What is the net margin of Alfa Holdings S.A (RPAD3)?
The net margin of Alfa Holdings S.A is 115% (fiscal year 2025). How much of every unit of revenue ends up as profit. 10% means 10 cents of profit per dollar of sales.
What is the return on equity of Alfa Holdings S.A (RPAD3)?
The return on equity (ROE) of Alfa Holdings S.A is 7.4% (last twelve months). Profit relative to shareholders' equity, how efficiently the company works with its owners' money.
What is the EBIT return on assets of Alfa Holdings S.A (RPAD3)?
On an EBIT basis the return on assets of Alfa Holdings S.A is 0.9% (avg 5y). Operating profit (EBIT) relative to everything the company owns, as a multi-year average. It describes the business model rather than one good or bad year.
How fast is revenue growing at Alfa Holdings S.A (RPAD3)?
Revenue at Alfa Holdings S.A is growing +470% versus a year earlier (3y avg +110%). How much revenue grew versus a year earlier (YoY). The 3-year average next to it puts the single year in context.
How fast are earnings growing at Alfa Holdings S.A (RPAD3)?
Earnings per share at Alfa Holdings S.A are growing −35.0% versus a year earlier. How much earnings per share grew versus a year earlier.
How much net cash does Alfa Holdings S.A (RPAD3) hold?
Alfa Holdings S.A holds more cash than debt, R$207K net (fiscal year 2025). The company holds more cash than debt, a safety cushion.
Free · no account needed
Watch Alfa Holdings S.A in the live analysis
One click puts Alfa Holdings S.A on your watchlist: fair value and trend at a glance, plus comparison, the diversification check and the 27,000+ stock screener.
Broad data
Nov 14, 2026