Alfa Holdings S.A (RPAD3) fair value: what the stock is really worth
As of Sep 21, 2026: fair value of Alfa Holdings S.A BRL 8.46, price BRL 7.50, upside +12.8%, quality 68 out of 100. Calculated from audited financials with 26 valuation models and 37 quality factors, updated daily.
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Alfa Holdings S.A. engages in the provision of financial products in Brazil. It also engages in the provision of credit to legal entities and individuals, private banking, wealth management, asset management, investment banking, and insurance. The company was formerly known as Real S.A. and changed its name to Alfa Holdings S.A. in April 1999.
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Alfa Holdings S.A. engages in the provision of financial products in Brazil. It also engages in the provision of credit to legal entities and individuals, private banking, wealth management, asset management, investment banking, and insurance. The company was formerly known as Real S.A. and changed its name to Alfa Holdings S.A. in April 1999. Alfa Holdings S.A. was incorporated in 1959 and is based in São Paulo, Brazil. Alfa Holdings S.A. operates as a subsidiary of Banco Safra S.A.
Stock analysis
Alfa Holdings S.A (RPAD3) currently trades at R$7.50, while our model-based Fair Value estimate is R$8.46, implying the stock looks roughly 11.3% undervalued today.
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Valuation
Bull case: the Earnings-Based group reads highest at a median of R$33.97 per share, and 8 of the 12 models we run sit above the R$7.50 price.
Bear case: the Dividend Discount group reads lowest at R$1.17, and 4 of the 12 models stay below the price. Evidence for this calculation is high.
Quality & growth
The Quality Score stands at 68/100 (solid quality), in the Industrials sector.
Mixed Growth: Revenue is growing, but margins or cash flow do not fully confirm the trend.
Alfa Holdings S.A reported revenue of R$71.8M in FY2025 versus R$1.4M in FY2021, a compound +169.4%/yr. Reported net income was R$82.2M in FY2025, compounding +43.5%/yr from FY2021.
Key figures
Market cap R$635M (≈ $123M) · P/E ratio 4.5 · P/S ratio 5.21 · EPS (TTM) R$1.43 · Dividend yield 1.6% · Net margin 115% · Return on equity 8.7% · Return on assets (EBIT) 0.9%.
Competitive moat
Our AI-assisted moat analysis scores the competitive advantage at 44 out of 100 (low confidence).
What moves the price
The share trades at its 52-week high and 52% above its 52-week low, currently above its 200-day average.
For context, the median of 10 Industrials peers we cover trades at 38% fair-value upside, at 13%, RPAD3 screens richer than that median.
Fair Value models
Bear R$8.46Fair Value R$8.46Bull R$8.46
Model ⓘEach model values the company its own way (discounted cash flow, earnings, assets, dividends). The fair value above is their evidence-weighted blend, not the output of a single model. Based on fiscal year 2025 figures (about 9 months old). Earnings retained since then (R$1.05 per share) are deliberately not added.Bear ⓘBear = the cautious scenario: the same model computed with conservative anchors (lower growth, margins and valuation multiples). Together with Bull it frames a plausible valuation range, not a price target.BaseBull ⓘBull = the optimistic scenario: the same model computed with favourable anchors (higher growth, margins and valuation multiples). Together with Bear it frames a plausible valuation range, not a price target.Evidence ⓘEvidence = how well-backed THIS model's estimate is for this stock (0–100): how complete and reliable its input data are, and how well the model fits the company. The final Fair Value is an evidence-weighted blend, so better-evidenced models count more. Green ≥70, amber 50–69, grey below 50.
Growth Quality ⓘGrowth is valuable only when reinvestment earns attractive returns (Aswath Damodaran): sustainable growth depends on return on capital, reinvestment and efficiency. Basis: total company revenue over the periods shown on the cards (3Y/5Y/all years), not per share, so a merger can show up as a growth jump; per-share earnings growth is in the value-creation card.67/100
Revenue is growing, but margins or cash flow do not fully confirm the trend.
Revenue growth 1 year
+10,020.0%
Revenue growth 3 years ⓘMeasures the company's TOTAL revenue from reported annual statements: compound average growth per year (CAGR) from the fiscal year 3, 5 or N years back to the most recent comparable fiscal year. Not per share: buybacks do not change this number, and a merger can appear as a growth jump. Per-share growth (which does include buybacks) is in the value-creation card.
+109.8%
Revenue growth 5 years ⓘMeasures the company's TOTAL revenue from reported annual statements: compound average growth per year (CAGR) from the fiscal year 3, 5 or N years back to the most recent comparable fiscal year. Not per share: buybacks do not change this number, and a merger can appear as a growth jump. Per-share growth (which does include buybacks) is in the value-creation card.
+167.6%
Start year 2020 (pandemic). Over 10 years: +81.1% a year
Revenue growth 21 years ⓘMeasures the company's TOTAL revenue from reported annual statements: compound average growth per year (CAGR) from the fiscal year 3, 5 or N years back to the most recent comparable fiscal year. Not per share: buybacks do not change this number, and a merger can appear as a growth jump. Per-share growth (which does include buybacks) is in the value-creation card.
−5.6%
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What shareholders gained per year (last 5 years), in BRL ⓘWhat the business itself delivers per year: earnings growth per share plus the dividend yield. This is what you get IF the market keeps valuing the stock the same way: it contains no assumption about the market changing its mind. Computed per share, so buybacks count and a merger does not pass as growth. For a company that pays no dividend it is pure earnings growth per share. Period: earnings growth per share as CAGR over the last 5 reported fiscal years (annual statements), plus the current dividend yield. The start value is the median of the three years around the start, so a single crisis year (a pandemic or a write-down) does not distort the rate. Basis: EBIT basis. Measured in BRL: this currency has depreciated against the euro and dollar over the long run, so part of the nominal rate is currency erosion that never reaches a EUR/USD investor.
≈ +11.1%
Earnings growth per share plus dividend.
Earnings per share, growth per year+9.5%
Dividend (yield on the price)1.6%
Pace: 5 vs 10 years ⓘTwo data points, not a trend model: earnings growth per share over the last 5 fiscal years against the last 10. Labelled "steady" when both rates are within 3 percentage points of each other, otherwise picking up or flattening. Shown only when ten years of history exist.20% vs 5%, picking up
Profit margin 2020 to 2025 ⓘOperating margin then vs now, from reported annual statements. A falling margin after a boom year is the classic peak-earnings signal: the growth rate then leans on an inflated base.−866% → 98%
Start year 2020 (pandemic)
⚠ Rate on operating basis: 2025 sits 98% above its own trend.
Growth Forecast
Little optimism in the price
The price assumes less growth than the company has delivered so far.
What the price assumes ⓘThis turns our valuation around: instead of asking what the share is worth, it asks what growth the current price requires. It uses the cash the company keeps after all spending (free cash flow), the same discount rate as our models, five years of growth, then slowing evenly to 2 % a year by year ten. Compared with the analysts' sales forecasts extended to the same five years (at least three analysts, for context only, it does not enter the Fair Value): within 3 percentage points counts as "in line" (amber), below that little optimism (green), above that a lot of optimism (red).
+33.1%
Yearly growth needed for the next five years to justify today's price.
What forecasts expect
n/a
No analyst forecast available.
After inflation (Brazil: IMF forecast 3.3% a year to 2030, 5.4% from 2016 to 2025) that is about +28.9% a year for the price.
Price, fair value, quality and upside side by side.
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Peer GroupⓘHow this stock ranks against its industry: the green marker is this stock, the band is the typical 25–75% peer range, and the tick is the median.Conglomerates · 378 stocks
Beats the industry median on 8/13 measures
Overall it ranks above its industry peers.
Valuation
Quality Score70 · Top 25%
Fair Value upside+13% · Above median
Profitability
Return on equity (TTM)9% · Above median
Return on assets0% · Bottom 25%
Net margin (TTM)115% · Top 25%
Operating margin (TTM)0% · Below median
Growth and dividend
Revenue growth470% · Top 25%
Dividend yield (TTM)1.6% · Below median
Valuation Multiplesvs Conglomerates median · lower = cheaper
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Is Alfa Holdings S.A (RPAD3) overvalued or undervalued?
As of Sep 24, 2026, our model estimates a fair value of R$8.46 versus a price of R$7.50, about +13% upside (undervalued).
What is the fair value of RPAD3?
Our model-based fair value for Alfa Holdings S.A is R$8.46 (as of Sep 24, 2026), built from audited fundamentals. The current price: R$7.50.
What is the quality score of RPAD3?
Alfa Holdings S.A has a Quality Score of 68/100. It measures business quality (profitability, growth, cash flow, balance-sheet strength, investment discipline, share issuance). Market factors such as price momentum and volatility do not enter the number; they are shown separately in the detail view.
What is the price target for Alfa Holdings S.A (RPAD3)?
Our model-based price target is the fair value of R$8.46 (as of Sep 24, 2026) from 12 valuation models. It is a calculation from audited fundamentals, not an analyst target.
What is the Alfa Holdings S.A stock forecast for 2026?
Our models put fair value at R$8.46, about +13% upside versus a price of R$7.50 (undervalued). The calculation is refreshed regularly with new filings.
Does Alfa Holdings S.A pay a dividend?
Alfa Holdings S.A currently shows a dividend yield of about 1.59% relative to its recent price (as of Sep 24, 2026).
What growth is priced into Alfa Holdings S.A (RPAD3)?
For today's price to be fair in a discounted-cash-flow model, Alfa Holdings S.A would have to grow free cash flow by +33.1 % per year for five years (discount rate 14.2 %, then slowing evenly to 2 % perpetual growth by year ten). Over the last 5 years revenue grew +167.6 % per year. As of Sep 24, 2026.
What discount rate (WACC) does the fair value of RPAD3 use?
Our models discount Alfa Holdings S.A at 14.2 %: a base by market capitalisation (micro), damped by beta 0.07, country premium for Brazil. The same rate applies in all 26 models.
What is a reverse DCF?
A reverse DCF turns the usual calculation around. Instead of deriving a value from assumptions, it takes today's price as given and asks: what free-cash-flow growth would a company have to deliver for exactly this price to be fair? The result is not a forecast but the expectation already priced in. For Alfa Holdings S.A that is +33.1 % per year a year over ten years, using the same discount rate (14.2 %) and the same formula as our fair value.
How much growth has Alfa Holdings S.A (RPAD3) delivered so far?
Over the past 5 years revenue at Alfa Holdings S.A grew +167.6 % a year. The price currently implies +33.1 % per year free-cash-flow growth a year. Comparing the two shows how much confidence is in the price: if it demands more than has been delivered, the business has to accelerate for the maths to work.
How fast is the sector of Alfa Holdings S.A (RPAD3) growing?
The median revenue growth in the sector is +4.7 % a year. That is the yardstick for the growth priced into Alfa Holdings S.A (+33.1 % per year a year): it shows whether the expectation is within the usual range or beyond it.
What is the free cash flow yield of Alfa Holdings S.A (RPAD3)?
The free-cash-flow yield on the price is 2.10 %: that much free cash flow Alfa Holdings S.A produces per unit of market value. When it exceeds the discount rate of our models (14.2 %), the business already earns more than its cost of capital demands, and the price needs little additional growth.
What is the intrinsic value of Alfa Holdings S.A (RPAD3)?
Intrinsic value and fair value mean the same thing: what the business is worth on its numbers, independent of the share price. For Alfa Holdings S.A it is R$8.46 per share (as of Sep 24, 2026), against a price of R$7.50. It is the blended result of 12 valuation models (cash flow, earnings, asset, dividend).
Is Alfa Holdings S.A stock overvalued or undervalued in 2026?
As of Sep 24, 2026, RPAD3 trades below its calculated fair value: price R$7.50, fair value R$8.46, a gap of about +13% (undervalued). The calculation is refreshed with each new quarterly report, so the verdict can change during the year.
Is fair value the same as the market price of RPAD3?
No. The price is what the market pays today (R$7.50); the fair value is what the company's own numbers justify (R$8.46). For Alfa Holdings S.A the two are R$0.9600 per share apart. That gap is exactly why we show both numbers side by side.
How much is Alfa Holdings S.A worth?
The market values Alfa Holdings S.A at about R$635M (market capitalisation, as of Sep 24, 2026). Per share that is R$7.50; our models calculate a fair value of R$8.46 per share.
What is the P/E ratio of RPAD3?
Alfa Holdings S.A trades at a price-to-earnings ratio of 4.5 (as of Sep 24, 2026). A P/E on its own says little: it compares the price with ONE year of profit, while our fair value of R$8.46 is built from several models across several years. Other multiples: P/B 0.1, P/S 15.9, EV/EBITDA 1.4.
How solid is the balance sheet of Alfa Holdings S.A (RPAD3)?
Balance-sheet figures for Alfa Holdings S.A (as of Sep 24, 2026): return on equity 8.7%. They feed the Quality Score of 68/100, which measures business quality independently of the share price.
How far is RPAD3 from its 52-week high?
Alfa Holdings S.A trades at R$7.50, at its 52-week high of R$7.50 and 52% above the low of R$4.92 (as of Sep 21, 2026). Distance from the high says nothing about value: that is what the fair value of R$8.46 is for.
Which stocks are comparable to Alfa Holdings S.A?
From the same area (Industrials) we also value 3M Company, Honeywell International Inc, CITIC Limited, Poste Italiane S.p.A, among others. Each of them has its own fair-value calculation on this site using the same models, so the comparison is like for like.
Is Alfa Holdings S.A stock attractive at the current price?
The data as of Sep 24, 2026: price R$7.50, calculated fair value R$8.46 (+13%), Quality Score 68/100, from 12 models. Whether that fits your horizon and risk tolerance is your call. We provide the calculation, not investment advice.
How is the fair value of RPAD3 calculated?
We run Alfa Holdings S.A through 12 models from four families: discounted cash flow, earnings models, asset and balance-sheet models, and dividend models. Every model gets the same audited fundamentals; the result is the weighted average of R$8.46, with the spread shown as a cautious and an optimistic scenario.
Is it still worth investing in stocks now?
The global stock market currently sits 14.1 % above its aggregate fair value. Alfa Holdings S.A currently trades 13 % below its own fair value, and the market average says nothing about that. An expensive market is no reason to stay out and no reason to buy everything at once: keep a broad savings plan running, buy single stocks only with money you can do without, and hold part of your money liquid while the market is high. The full picture including sectors is on is it worth investing now.
What is the share price of Alfa Holdings S.A (RPAD3)?
The closing price on Sep 21, 2026 was R$7.50. Our model-based fair value is R$8.46, about +13% upside (undervalued). We carry closing prices from our data provider, not a live tick.
What should I pay attention to with Alfa Holdings S.A right now?
The price is below even our cautious bear case (R$8.46). The market is more pessimistic than our downside scenario. The data supports the verdict: every model runs on fully documented inputs.
Key figures of Alfa Holdings S.A
How large is the market capitalisation of Alfa Holdings S.A (RPAD3)?
The market capitalisation of Alfa Holdings S.A is R$635M (≈ $123M). The stock-market value of the whole company: share price times number of shares. It is what the market asks for the entire business today.
What is the P/S ratio of Alfa Holdings S.A (RPAD3)?
The price-to-sales ratio of Alfa Holdings S.A is 5.21 (P/E × margin). Price to sales: market value relative to yearly revenue. Useful when profit is thin or distorted.
What are the earnings per share of Alfa Holdings S.A (RPAD3)?
Earnings per share at Alfa Holdings S.A are R$1.43 (price ÷ EPS = P/E 4.5). Earnings per share over the last twelve months: total profit spread across every single share.
What is the dividend yield of Alfa Holdings S.A (RPAD3)?
The dividend yield of Alfa Holdings S.A is 1.6% (payout 8.4%). Yearly dividend relative to the share price. 3% pays 3 per 100 invested. Below: how much of profit is used for it.
What is the net margin of Alfa Holdings S.A (RPAD3)?
The net margin of Alfa Holdings S.A is 115% (fiscal year 2025). How much of every unit of revenue ends up as profit. 10% means 10 cents of profit per dollar of sales.
What is the return on equity of Alfa Holdings S.A (RPAD3)?
The return on equity (ROE) of Alfa Holdings S.A is 8.7% (last twelve months). Profit relative to shareholders' equity, how efficiently the company works with its owners' money.
What is the EBIT return on assets of Alfa Holdings S.A (RPAD3)?
On an EBIT basis the return on assets of Alfa Holdings S.A is 0.9% (avg 5y). Operating profit (EBIT) relative to everything the company owns, as a multi-year average. It describes the business model rather than one good or bad year.
How fast is revenue growing at Alfa Holdings S.A (RPAD3)?
Revenue at Alfa Holdings S.A is growing +470% versus a year earlier (3y avg +110%). How much revenue grew versus a year earlier (YoY). The 3-year average next to it puts the single year in context.
How fast are earnings growing at Alfa Holdings S.A (RPAD3)?
Earnings per share at Alfa Holdings S.A are growing +561% versus a year earlier. How much earnings per share grew versus a year earlier.
How much net cash does Alfa Holdings S.A (RPAD3) hold?
Alfa Holdings S.A holds more cash than debt, R$207K net (fiscal year 2025). The company holds more cash than debt, a safety cushion.
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