Shufersal (SAE) fair value: what the stock is really worth
As of Sep 23, 2026: fair value of Shufersal ILS 45.47, price ILS 36.93, upside +23.1%, quality 62 out of 100. Calculated from audited financials with 26 valuation models and 37 quality factors, updated daily.
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Price vs Fair Value
White line = price, green steps = our fair value per fiscal year, dashed = 300-day average. As of Sep 24, 2026.
How to read this chart
60‑month range 14.69 ILA – 50.51 ILA · fair‑value band 33.98 ILA – 61.11 ILA · the 36.93 ILA price screens below the 45.47 ILA fair value. Green steps = our fair value per fiscal year (point-in-time, no hindsight). 1 fiscal year is left out: there the valuation rested on only a fraction of the usual models. Dashed = 300-day average. As of Sep 24, 2026.
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Shufersal Ltd. operates a chain of supermarkets under the Shufersal brand name in Israel.
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Shufersal Ltd. operates a chain of supermarkets under the Shufersal brand name in Israel. It provides various products, such as meat, poultry and fish products; fresh vegetables and fruits; organic products; toiletries, cosmetics and pharmaceuticals; leisure products; electrical and communication products; household appliances, and variety of non-food products. The company offers its products through online website under the brand Shufersal Online. It also provides credit cards and customer club services. Shufersal Ltd. was incorporated in 1957 and is based in Rishon LeZion, Israel.
Stock analysis
Shufersal (SAE) currently trades at 36.93 ILA, while our model-based Fair Value estimate is 45.47 ILA, implying the stock looks roughly 18.8% undervalued today.
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Valuation
Bull case: the DCF Models group reads highest at a median of 69.35 ILA per share, and 17 of the 24 models we run sit above the 36.93 ILA price.
Bear case: the Asset-Based group reads lowest at 10.31 ILA, and 7 of the 24 models stay below the price. Evidence for this calculation is high.
Scenario range: 33.98 ILA (bear) to 61.11 ILA (bull), the price of 36.93 ILA sits inside it. Bear and bull are the same models on cautious and optimistic assumptions, a range, not a price target.
Quality & growth
The Quality Score stands at 62/100 (solid quality), in the Consumer Defensive sector.
Weak Growth: Revenue is shrinking: the last year, the last three and the last five years are all negative.
Shufersal reported revenue of 14.5B ILS in FY2025 versus 14.8B ILS in FY2021, a compound −0.5%/yr. Reported net income was 711M ILS in FY2025, compounding +16.0%/yr from FY2021.
Key figures
Market cap 12.0B ILA · P/E ratio 13.5 · P/S ratio 0.66 · EPS (TTM) 2.74 ILA · Dividend yield 4.5% · Net margin 4.9% · Return on equity 19.2% · Return on assets (EBIT) 5.1%.
Competitive moat
Our AI-assisted moat analysis scores the competitive advantage at 50 out of 100 (low confidence).
What moves the price
The share trades about 27% below its 52-week high and 2% above its 52-week low, currently below its 200-day average.
For context, the median of 10 Consumer Defensive peers we cover trades at 6% fair-value upside, at 23%, SAE screens cheaper than that median.
Fair Value models
Bear 33.98 ILAFair Value 45.47 ILABull 61.11 ILA
Model ⓘEach model values the company its own way (discounted cash flow, earnings, assets, dividends). The fair value above is their evidence-weighted blend, not the output of a single model. Based on fiscal year 2025 figures (about 9 months old). Earnings retained since then (2.00 ILS per share) are deliberately not added.Bear ⓘBear = the cautious scenario: the same model computed with conservative anchors (lower growth, margins and valuation multiples). Together with Bull it frames a plausible valuation range, not a price target.BaseBull ⓘBull = the optimistic scenario: the same model computed with favourable anchors (higher growth, margins and valuation multiples). Together with Bear it frames a plausible valuation range, not a price target.Evidence ⓘEvidence = how well-backed THIS model's estimate is for this stock (0–100): how complete and reliable its input data are, and how well the model fits the company. The final Fair Value is an evidence-weighted blend, so better-evidenced models count more. Green ≥70, amber 50–69, grey below 50.
Growth Quality ⓘGrowth is valuable only when reinvestment earns attractive returns (Aswath Damodaran): sustainable growth depends on return on capital, reinvestment and efficiency. Basis: total company revenue over the periods shown on the cards (3Y/5Y/all years), not per share, so a merger can show up as a growth jump; per-share earnings growth is in the value-creation card.40/100
Revenue is shrinking: the last year, the last three and the last five years are all negative.
Revenue growth 1 year
−7.4%
Revenue growth 3 years ⓘMeasures the company's TOTAL revenue from reported annual statements: compound average growth per year (CAGR) from the fiscal year 3, 5 or N years back to the most recent comparable fiscal year. Not per share: buybacks do not change this number, and a merger can appear as a growth jump. Per-share growth (which does include buybacks) is in the value-creation card.
−0.4%
Revenue growth 5 years ⓘMeasures the company's TOTAL revenue from reported annual statements: compound average growth per year (CAGR) from the fiscal year 3, 5 or N years back to the most recent comparable fiscal year. Not per share: buybacks do not change this number, and a merger can appear as a growth jump. Per-share growth (which does include buybacks) is in the value-creation card.
−1.0%
Start year 2020 (pandemic). Over 10 years: +2.3% a year
Revenue growth 25 years ⓘMeasures the company's TOTAL revenue from reported annual statements: compound average growth per year (CAGR) from the fiscal year 3, 5 or N years back to the most recent comparable fiscal year. Not per share: buybacks do not change this number, and a merger can appear as a growth jump. Per-share growth (which does include buybacks) is in the value-creation card.
+3.7%
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What shareholders gained per year (last 5 years) (mathematically smoothed) ⓘWhat the business itself delivers per year: earnings growth per share plus the dividend yield. This is what you get IF the market keeps valuing the stock the same way: it contains no assumption about the market changing its mind. Computed per share, so buybacks count and a merger does not pass as growth. For a company that pays no dividend it is pure earnings growth per share. Period: earnings growth per share as CAGR over the last 5 reported fiscal years (annual statements), plus the current dividend yield. The start value is the median of the three years around the start, so a single crisis year (a pandemic or a write-down) does not distort the rate. Smoothed = median of all growth paths between the years of the window (trend line on the logarithm of earnings per share): a single extreme year cannot distort the rate. The reported figure stays in the tooltip.
+15.5%
Earnings growth per share plus dividend.
Earnings per share, growth per year+11.0%
Dividend (yield on the price)4.5%
Pace: 5 vs 10 years ⓘTwo data points, not a trend model: earnings growth per share over the last 5 fiscal years against the last 10. Labelled "steady" when both rates are within 3 percentage points of each other, otherwise picking up or flattening. Shown only when ten years of history exist.12% vs 11%, steady
Profit margin 2020 to 2025 ⓘOperating margin then vs now, from reported annual statements. A falling margin after a boom year is the classic peak-earnings signal: the growth rate then leans on an inflated base.7% → 7%
2025 sits 128% above its own trend. The rate follows the median trend of the last 5 years, not that single year.
Start year 2020 (pandemic)
Growth Forecast
Little optimism in the price
The price assumes less growth than the company has delivered so far.
What the price assumes ⓘThis turns our valuation around: instead of asking what the share is worth, it asks what growth the current price requires. It uses the cash the company keeps after all spending (free cash flow), the same discount rate as our models, five years of growth, then slowing evenly to 2 % a year by year ten. Compared with the analysts' sales forecasts extended to the same five years (at least three analysts, for context only, it does not enter the Fair Value): within 3 percentage points counts as "in line" (amber), below that little optimism (green), above that a lot of optimism (red).
−10.9%
Yearly growth needed for the next five years to justify today's price.
What forecasts expect
n/a
No analyst forecast available.
After inflation (Israel: IMF forecast 2.1% a year to 2030, 1.7% from 2016 to 2025) that is about −12.7% a year for the price.
Price, fair value, quality and upside side by side.
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Peer GroupⓘHow this stock ranks against its industry: the green marker is this stock, the band is the typical 25–75% peer range, and the tick is the median.Grocery Stores · 79 stocks
Beats the industry median on 12/14 measures
Overall it ranks above its industry peers.
Valuation
Quality Score62 · Above median
Fair Value upside+23% · Above median
Profitability
Return on equity (TTM)19% · Top 25%
Return on assets4% · Below median
Net margin (TTM)5% · Top 25%
Operating margin (TTM)7% · Top 25%
Growth and dividend
Revenue growth5% · Above median
Dividend yield (TTM)4.5% · Top 25%
Balance sheet
Debt / equity0.34× · Above median
Valuation Multiplesvs Grocery Stores median · lower = cheaper
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Cite: Fair Value Calculator (2026). "Shufersal Fair Value". https://www.fairvalue-calculator.com/stock/SAE
Frequently asked questions
Is Shufersal (SAE) overvalued or undervalued?
As of Sep 24, 2026, our model estimates a fair value of 45.47 ILA versus a price of 36.93 ILA, about +23% upside (undervalued).
What is the fair value of SAE?
Our model-based fair value for Shufersal is 45.47 ILA (as of Sep 24, 2026), built from audited fundamentals. The current price: 36.93 ILA.
What is the quality score of SAE?
Shufersal has a Quality Score of 62/100. It measures business quality (profitability, growth, cash flow, balance-sheet strength, investment discipline, share issuance). Market factors such as price momentum and volatility do not enter the number; they are shown separately in the detail view.
What is the price target for Shufersal (SAE)?
Our model-based price target is the fair value of 45.47 ILA (as of Sep 24, 2026) from 24 valuation models. Cautious scenario 33.98 ILA, optimistic scenario 61.11 ILA. It is a calculation from audited fundamentals, not an analyst target.
What is the Shufersal stock forecast for 2026?
Our models put fair value at 45.47 ILA, about +23% upside versus a price of 36.93 ILA (undervalued). Cautious scenario 33.98 ILA, optimistic scenario 61.11 ILA. The calculation is refreshed regularly with new filings.
What is the revenue of Shufersal (SAE)?
Shufersal reported trailing-twelve-month revenue of about 14.6B ILS (latest available figure, as of Sep 24, 2026).
Does Shufersal pay a dividend?
Shufersal currently shows a dividend yield of about 4.51% relative to its recent price (as of Sep 24, 2026).
What growth is priced into Shufersal (SAE)?
For today's price to be fair in a discounted-cash-flow model, Shufersal would have to grow free cash flow by -10.9 % per year for five years (discount rate 10.1 %, then slowing evenly to 2 % perpetual growth by year ten). Over the last 5 years revenue grew -1.0 % per year. As of Sep 24, 2026.
What discount rate (WACC) does the fair value of SAE use?
Our models discount Shufersal at 10.1 %: a base by market capitalisation (mid), damped by beta 0.10, country premium for Israel. The same rate applies in all 26 models.
What is a reverse DCF?
A reverse DCF turns the usual calculation around. Instead of deriving a value from assumptions, it takes today's price as given and asks: what free-cash-flow growth would a company have to deliver for exactly this price to be fair? The result is not a forecast but the expectation already priced in. For Shufersal that is -10.9 % per year a year over ten years, using the same discount rate (10.1 %) and the same formula as our fair value.
How much growth has Shufersal (SAE) delivered so far?
Over the past 5 years revenue at Shufersal grew -1.0 % a year. The price currently implies -10.9 % per year free-cash-flow growth a year. Comparing the two shows how much confidence is in the price: if it demands more than has been delivered, the business has to accelerate for the maths to work.
How fast is the sector of Shufersal (SAE) growing?
The median revenue growth in the sector is +2.8 % a year. That is the yardstick for the growth priced into Shufersal (-10.9 % per year a year): it shows whether the expectation is within the usual range or beyond it.
What is the free cash flow yield of Shufersal (SAE)?
The free-cash-flow yield on the price is 15.66 %: that much free cash flow Shufersal produces per unit of market value. When it exceeds the discount rate of our models (10.1 %), the business already earns more than its cost of capital demands, and the price needs little additional growth.
What is the intrinsic value of Shufersal (SAE)?
Intrinsic value and fair value mean the same thing: what the business is worth on its numbers, independent of the share price. For Shufersal it is 45.47 ILA per share (as of Sep 24, 2026), against a price of 36.93 ILA. It is the blended result of 24 valuation models (cash flow, earnings, asset, dividend).
Is Shufersal stock overvalued or undervalued in 2026?
As of Sep 24, 2026, SAE trades below its calculated fair value: price 36.93 ILA, fair value 45.47 ILA, a gap of about +23% (undervalued). The calculation is refreshed with each new quarterly report, so the verdict can change during the year.
Is fair value the same as the market price of SAE?
No. The price is what the market pays today (36.93 ILA); the fair value is what the company's own numbers justify (45.47 ILA). For Shufersal the two are 8.54 ILA per share apart. That gap is exactly why we show both numbers side by side.
How much is Shufersal worth?
The market values Shufersal at about 12.0B ILA (market capitalisation, as of Sep 24, 2026). Per share that is 36.93 ILA; our models calculate a fair value of 45.47 ILA per share.
What do the bullish and bearish scenarios say about SAE?
Our models span a range for Shufersal: cautious scenario 33.98 ILA, base 45.47 ILA, optimistic 61.11 ILA per share (as of Sep 24, 2026, price 36.93 ILA). The range comes from different growth and margin assumptions, not from analyst opinions.
What is the P/E ratio of SAE?
Shufersal trades at a price-to-earnings ratio of 13.5 (as of Sep 24, 2026). A P/E on its own says little: it compares the price with ONE year of profit, while our fair value of 45.47 ILA is built from several models across several years. Other multiples: P/B 1.0, P/S 0.3, EV/EBITDA 2.8.
How solid is the balance sheet of Shufersal (SAE)?
Balance-sheet figures for Shufersal (as of Sep 24, 2026): return on equity 19.2%, debt of 0.34 per unit of equity. They feed the Quality Score of 62/100, which measures business quality independently of the share price.
How far is SAE from its 52-week high?
Shufersal trades at 36.93 ILA, about 27% below its 52-week high of 50.51 ILA and 2% above the low of 36.33 ILA (as of Sep 23, 2026). Distance from the high says nothing about value: that is what the fair value of 45.47 ILA is for.
Which stocks are comparable to Shufersal?
From the same area (Consumer Defensive) we also value Loblaw Companies Limited, Koninklijke Ahold Delhaize N.V, The Kroger Co, Woolworths Group, among others. Each of them has its own fair-value calculation on this site using the same models, so the comparison is like for like.
Is Shufersal stock attractive at the current price?
The data as of Sep 24, 2026: price 36.93 ILA, calculated fair value 45.47 ILA (+23%), Quality Score 62/100, from 24 models. Whether that fits your horizon and risk tolerance is your call. We provide the calculation, not investment advice.
How is the fair value of SAE calculated?
We run Shufersal through 24 models from four families: discounted cash flow, earnings models, asset and balance-sheet models, and dividend models. Every model gets the same audited fundamentals; the result is the weighted average of 45.47 ILA, with the spread shown as a cautious and an optimistic scenario.
Is it still worth investing in stocks now?
The global stock market currently sits 14.1 % above its aggregate fair value. Shufersal currently trades 23 % below its own fair value, and the market average says nothing about that. An expensive market is no reason to stay out and no reason to buy everything at once: keep a broad savings plan running, buy single stocks only with money you can do without, and hold part of your money liquid while the market is high. The full picture including sectors is on is it worth investing now.
What is the share price of Shufersal (SAE)?
The closing price on Sep 23, 2026 was 36.93 ILA. Our model-based fair value is 45.47 ILA, about +23% upside (undervalued). We carry closing prices from our data provider, not a live tick.
What should I pay attention to with Shufersal right now?
Solid quality (62/100) at a price below fair value, the discount is the argument here, not the business quality. The price sits in the lower half of our model range, the side with the larger margin of safety. The data supports the verdict: every model runs on fully documented inputs.
Where does the earnings growth of Shufersal (SAE) come from?
Earnings per share at Shufersal grew +9.6 % a year from 2015 to 2025. Broken into its drivers: revenue per share +0.4 %, EBIT margin +7.8 %, tax rate −0.2 %, residual (interest, one-offs) +1.5 %. The four rates multiply to the earnings growth rate, they do not add up. Start and end are three-year averages so a single exceptional year does not distort the result.
Key figures of Shufersal
How large is the market capitalisation of Shufersal (SAE)?
The market capitalisation of Shufersal is 12.0B ILA. The stock-market value of the whole company: share price times number of shares. It is what the market asks for the entire business today.
What is the P/S ratio of Shufersal (SAE)?
The price-to-sales ratio of Shufersal is 0.66 (P/E × margin). Price to sales: market value relative to yearly revenue. Useful when profit is thin or distorted.
What are the earnings per share of Shufersal (SAE)?
Earnings per share at Shufersal are 2.74 ILA (price ÷ EPS = P/E 13.5). Earnings per share over the last twelve months: total profit spread across every single share.
What is the dividend yield of Shufersal (SAE)?
The dividend yield of Shufersal is 4.5% (payout 60.8%). Yearly dividend relative to the share price. 3% pays 3 per 100 invested. Below: how much of profit is used for it.
What is the net margin of Shufersal (SAE)?
The net margin of Shufersal is 4.9% (fiscal year 2025). How much of every unit of revenue ends up as profit. 10% means 10 cents of profit per dollar of sales.
What is the return on equity of Shufersal (SAE)?
The return on equity (ROE) of Shufersal is 19.2% (last twelve months). Profit relative to shareholders' equity, how efficiently the company works with its owners' money.
What is the EBIT return on assets of Shufersal (SAE)?
On an EBIT basis the return on assets of Shufersal is 5.1% (avg 5y). Operating profit (EBIT) relative to everything the company owns, as a multi-year average. It describes the business model rather than one good or bad year.
What is the operating margin of Shufersal (SAE)?
The operating margin of Shufersal is 7.1% (last twelve months). Profit from the core business (before interest and taxes) relative to revenue.
How fast is revenue growing at Shufersal (SAE)?
Revenue at Shufersal is growing +4.5% versus a year earlier (3y avg −0.4%). How much revenue grew versus a year earlier (YoY). The 3-year average next to it puts the single year in context.
How fast are earnings growing at Shufersal (SAE)?
Earnings per share at Shufersal are growing +12.1% versus a year earlier. How much earnings per share grew versus a year earlier.
How much net debt does Shufersal (SAE) carry?
The net debt of Shufersal is 4.6B ILA (fiscal year 2025, ≈ 3.0 yrs of FCF). Debt minus cash on hand. The note shows how many years of free cash flow could in theory pay it off.
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