Safety Insurance Group (SAFT) Fair Value & Analysis
Financial Services · US · Market cap $1.0B
Safety Insurance Group
SAFT · US
Fair value as of: Jul 27, 2026
From 4 valuation models · updated 14 days ago
Share price +33.8% over the past month.
A solid business, but screening 15% overvalued on our models.
What matters now
- Solid but not exceptional quality (64/100) and above fair value, neither a clear bargain nor a standout compounder.
- For a financial, book-value and earnings-based methods matter more than a cash-flow DCF, which fits banks and insurers poorly.
Price vs Fair Value (5 years)
White line = price, green steps = our fair value per fiscal year, dashed = 300-day average. As of Jul 27, 2026.
How to read this chart
60‑month range $57.54 – $103.50 · fair‑value band $65.91 – $109.84 · the $103.50 price screens above the $87.88 fair value. Green steps = our fair value per fiscal year (point-in-time, no hindsight). Dashed = 300-day average. As of Jul 27, 2026.
Analysis
Safety Insurance Group (SAFT) currently trades at $103.50, while our model-based Fair Value estimate is $87.88, implying the stock looks roughly 15.1% overvalued today. The Quality Score stands at 64/100 (solid quality), in the Financial Services sector. Bear case: priced above our estimate, the market already discounts strong expectations. Bull case: above-average quality can justify a premium, the entry price still matters most (evidence: high).
Over the trailing twelve months, Safety Insurance Group generated revenue of $1.3B at a net margin of 4.9%. Revenue grew 4.4% year over year. It earns a return on equity of 7.4%. The balance sheet holds a net cash position of $12.0M. Fundamentals as of Jul 27, 2026
Our scenario range runs from $65.91 (bear case) to $109.84 (bull case); at $103.50, the current price sits within that range. Bear and bull are the same models run on conservative and optimistic assumptions (margins, growth, valuation multiples), so a plausible valuation range, not a price target. The share trades near its 52-week high and 60% above its 52-week low, currently above its 200-day average. For context, the median of 10 Financial Services peers we cover trades at 8% fair-value upside, at -15%, SAFT screens richer than that median.
Fair Value models
Each model estimates fair value its own way; the Fair Value above is the evidence-weighted blend. Evidence (0–100) measures how completely this model’s inputs are available: well-fed models carry more weight in the blend. The spread across models is intentional, each one stresses a different value driver; dividend models, for instance, come out structurally low when payout is small.
All 4 models by family
Widest divergence: Multiples ($85.08) versus Asset-Based ($40.72). Highest evidence: Residual Income (76).
Key figures & financial health
More key figures
Figures from reported company fundamentals · as of Jul 27, 2026. TTM = trailing twelve months.
Quality Score breakdown
Of which business quality 66 · Market factors (momentum, volatility) 82
Non-valuation factor families (profitability, growth, cashflow, financial strength, momentum …), each academically grounded. Valuation itself sits in the Fair Value and is deliberately excluded here to avoid double-counting.
About the company
Safety Insurance Group, Inc. provides private passenger and commercial automobile, and homeowner insurance in Massachusetts, the United States.
Full company description
Safety Insurance Group, Inc. provides private passenger and commercial automobile, and homeowner insurance in Massachusetts, the United States. The company offers private passenger automobile policies that provide coverage for bodily injury and property damage to others, no-fault personal injury coverage for the insured/insured's car occupants, and physical damage coverage for an insured's own vehicle for collision or other perils. It also provides commercial automobile policies that offer insurance for commercial vehicles used for business purposes, including private passenger-type vehicles, trucks, tractors and trailers, and insure individual vehicles, as well as commercial fleets; and homeowners policies, which provide coverage for homes, condominiums, and apartments for losses to a dwelling and its contents from various perils, and coverage for liability to others arising from ownership or occupancy. In addition, the company offers business owners policies that cover apartments and residential condominiums, restaurants, office condominiums, processing and services businesses, special trade contractors, and wholesalers. Further, it provides personal umbrella policies, which provide personal excess liability coverage over and above the limits of individual automobile, watercraft, and homeowner's insurance policies; dwelling fire insurance for non-owner occupied residences; and commercial umbrella, which offers an excess liability product to clients. Additionally, the company offers inland marine coverage for homeowners and business owner policies; and watercraft coverage for small and medium sized pleasure crafts. It distributes its products through independent agents. The company was formerly known as Safety Holdings Inc and changed its name to Safety Insurance Group, Inc. in April 2002. Safety Insurance Group, Inc. was founded in 1979 and is headquartered in Boston, Massachusetts.
Company description, as reported by the company or data provider.
Revenue & earnings trend
FY2021 – FY2025 · reported fiscal years
Safety Insurance Group reported revenue of $1.3B in FY2025 versus $865M in FY2021, a compound +9.7%/yr. Reported net income was $99.3M in FY2025, compounding −6.7%/yr from FY2021.
SAFT screens 15% overvalued. Compare with The Progressive Corporation →
Earlier news
External third-party headlines (Yahoo Finance, Reuters and others), not an editorial selection.
- Halper Sadeh LLC is Investigating Whether SAFT, NEUP, RMAX, NRIM are Obtaining Fair Deals for their Shareholders
- The M&A Class Action Firm Encourages $hareholders To Contact Monteverde Concerning The Merger—NRIM, NEUP, SAFT, and RMAX
- Halper Sadeh LLC is Investigating Whether FBRX and SAFT are Obtaining Fair Deals for their Shareholders
- AM Best Places Credit Ratings of Safety Insurance Group, Inc. and Its Key Subsidiaries Under Review With Developing Implications
Peer Group
Insurance - Property & Casualty · 120 stocks
How this stock ranks against its industry: the green marker is this stock, the band is the typical 25–75% peer range, and the tick is the median.
Valuation Multiples vs Insurance - Property & Casualty median · lower = cheaper
Snowflake
Five quick dimensions, each 0 to 100: VALUE (fair-value potential), FUTURE (revenue growth), PAST (return on equity), HEALTH (low debt), DIVIDEND (yield). Green = this stock, grey = typical sector peer.
Insider activity: 46/100
Values & ESG
Does this company touch areas you may want to avoid? The classification is inferred from sector and industry.
ESG scores are not available for this stock yet. Values and ESG data are contextual and can differ between providers.
Similar stocks
10 more Insurance - Property & Casualty stocks, each showing price versus our Fair Value estimate (as of Jul 27, 2026).
| Stock | Price | Fair Value | vs Fair Value |
|---|---|---|---|
| The Progressive Corporation PGR | $234.48 | $252.50 | +8% |
| Chubb Limited CB | $337.44 | $345.56 | +2% |
| The Travelers Companies, Inc TRV | $368.98 | $384.42 | +4% |
| The Allstate Corporation ALL | $251.61 | $503.22 | +100% |
| The People's Insurance Company 601319 | ¥7.06 | ¥13.71 | +94% |
| Intact Financial Corporation IFC | C$294.02 | C$247.44 | -16% |
| Fairfax Financial Holdings FFH | C$2,327 | C$3,252 | +40% |
| QBE Insurance Group QBE | A$25.47 | A$19.42 | -24% |
| Samsung Fire & Marine Insurance Co 000810 | 648,000 KRW | 658,771 KRW | +2% |
| Powszechny Zaklad Ubezpieczen SA PZU | 69.80 PLN | 100.85 PLN | +44% |
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How we calculate Fair Value
Each company is valued through a stack of independent intrinsic-value models (DCF variants, residual-income, multiples and more), blended into one family-balanced consensus and weighted by how much trustworthy data backs it. A separate quality layer scores the fundamentals. Every input is real reported data, nothing guessed.
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