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Safety Insurance Group Inc (SAFT) fair value: what the stock is really worth

As of Sep 23, 2026: fair value of Safety Insurance Group Inc $80.01, price $104, upside -22.7%, quality 64 out of 100. Calculated from audited financials with 26 valuation models and 37 quality factors, updated daily.

  1. Fair value above price? No
  2. Good quality? Yes
  3. Add to watchlist

Financial Services · US · ISIN US78648T1007

SI Safety Insurance Group Inc logo Broad data Sep 23, 2026

Safety Insurance Group Inc

SAFT · US

Overvalued / MonitorQuality is not strong enough to offset the price risk.

!Fair value $80.01 · Overvalued (−23%)
!Quality 64/100
!Mixed Growth (revenue 5y +8.3 %/yr)
!Thin margins · 4.9% net margin (TTM)
✓Low debt · generates free cash flow
·3.54% dividend yield
!Trails peers (4/15)
!Narrow moat 37/100
!Insider activity 46/100
!Weak on valuation: 3 out of 100
!Weak on future: 22 out of 100
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What runs behind every stock

26 valuation models 8 families, DCF to NCAV 37 quality factors margins, balance sheet, cashflow, debt 6 AI factors moat, what no ratio measures 2,000+ data points verified, per stock, median

69 individual criteria per stock, every one traceable See the method →

Price vs Fair Value

$103.79 $57.54 Fair Value $80.01 Jun 2021 Sep 2026

White line = price, green steps = our fair value per fiscal year, dashed = 300-day average. As of Sep 23, 2026.

How to read this chart

60‑month range $57.54 – $103.79 · fair‑value band $60.01 – $100.01 · the $103.51 price screens above the $80.01 fair value. Green steps = our fair value per fiscal year (point-in-time, no hindsight). 1 fiscal year is left out: there the valuation rested on only a fraction of the usual models. Dashed = 300-day average. As of Sep 23, 2026.

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Company profile

Safety Insurance Group, Inc. provides private passenger and commercial automobile, and homeowner insurance in Massachusetts, the United States.

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Safety Insurance Group, Inc. provides private passenger and commercial automobile, and homeowner insurance in Massachusetts, the United States. The company offers private passenger automobile policies that provide coverage for bodily injury and property damage to others, no-fault personal injury coverage for the insured/insured's car occupants, and physical damage coverage for an insured's own vehicle for collision or other perils. It also provides commercial automobile policies that offer insurance for commercial vehicles used for business purposes, including private passenger-type vehicles, trucks, tractors and trailers, and insure individual vehicles, as well as commercial fleets; and homeowners policies, which provide coverage for homes, condominiums, and apartments for losses to a dwelling and its contents from various perils, and coverage for liability to others arising from ownership or occupancy. In addition, the company offers business owners policies that cover apartments and residential condominiums, restaurants, office condominiums, processing and services businesses, special trade contractors, and wholesalers. Further, it provides personal umbrella policies, which provide personal excess liability coverage over and above the limits of individual automobile, watercraft, and homeowner's insurance policies; dwelling fire insurance for non-owner occupied residences; and commercial umbrella, which offers an excess liability product to clients. Additionally, the company offers inland marine coverage for homeowners and business owner policies; and watercraft coverage for small and medium sized pleasure crafts. It distributes its products through independent agents. The company was formerly known as Safety Holdings Inc and changed its name to Safety Insurance Group, Inc. in April 2002. Safety Insurance Group, Inc. was founded in 1979 and is headquartered in Boston, Massachusetts.

Stock analysis

Safety Insurance Group Inc (SAFT) currently trades at $103.51, while our model-based Fair Value estimate is $80.01, implying the stock looks roughly 29.4% overvalued today.

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Valuation

Bull case: the Multiples group reads highest at a median of $85.08 per share, and 0 of the 4 models we run sit above the $103.51 price.

Bear case: the Asset-Based group reads lowest at $40.72, and 4 of the 4 models stay below the price. Evidence for this calculation is high.

Scenario range: $60.01 (bear) to $100.01 (bull), the price of $103.51 sits above it. Bear and bull are the same models on cautious and optimistic assumptions, a range, not a price target.

Quality & growth

The Quality Score stands at 64/100 (solid quality), in the Financial Services sector.

Mixed Growth: Revenue is growing, but margins or cash flow do not fully confirm the trend.

Safety Insurance Group Inc reported revenue of $1.3B in FY2025 versus $865M in FY2021, a compound +9.7%/yr. Reported net income was $99.3M in FY2025, compounding −6.7%/yr from FY2021.

Key figures

Market cap $1.5B · P/E ratio 24.5 · P/S ratio 1.94 · EPS (TTM) $4.23 · Dividend yield 3.5% · Net margin 7.9% · Return on equity 7.4% · Return on assets (EBIT) 4.2%.

Competitive moat

Our AI-assisted moat analysis scores the competitive advantage at 48 out of 100 (medium confidence).

What moves the price

The share trades at its 52-week high and 59% above its 52-week low, currently above its 200-day average.

For context, the median of 10 Financial Services peers we cover trades at −12% fair-value upside, at −23%, SAFT screens richer than that median.

Fair Value models

Bear $60.01 Fair Value $80.01 Bull $100.01
Model ⓘEach model values the company its own way (discounted cash flow, earnings, assets, dividends). The fair value above is their evidence-weighted blend, not the output of a single model. Based on fiscal year 2025 figures (about 9 months old). Earnings retained since then ($0.4170 per share) are deliberately not added. Bear ⓘBear = the cautious scenario: the same model computed with conservative anchors (lower growth, margins and valuation multiples). Together with Bull it frames a plausible valuation range, not a price target.BaseBull ⓘBull = the optimistic scenario: the same model computed with favourable anchors (higher growth, margins and valuation multiples). Together with Bear it frames a plausible valuation range, not a price target. Evidence ⓘEvidence = how well-backed THIS model's estimate is for this stock (0–100): how complete and reliable its input data are, and how well the model fits the company. The final Fair Value is an evidence-weighted blend, so better-evidenced models count more. Green ≥70, amber 50–69, grey below 50.
Highest evidence
Residual Income $51.71 $57.25 $80.27 76
P/E Multiple $65.91 $87.88 $109.84 63
P/B Multiple $63.81 $85.08 $106.35 55
All 4 models by family
Multiples
P/E Multiple $65.91 $87.88 $109.84 63
P/B Multiple $63.81 $85.08 $106.35 55
Asset-Based
NCAV (Graham) $30.38 $40.72 $60.77 54
Economic Profit
Residual Income $51.71 $57.25 $80.27 76

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Quality Score breakdown

Overall quality 64/100

Of which business quality 66 · Market factors (momentum, volatility) 87

Profitability 38
Margins and returns on capital today
Quality Growth 61
Are margins and returns improving?
Cashflow 81
Earnings quality: real cash, not paper profit
Fin. Strength 63
Balance sheet, leverage, solvency risk
Investment 82
Disciplined investing over empire-building
Low Volatility 73
Calm price path (market factor)
Momentum 93
Price trend over the last 3–12 months (market factor)
52W Momentum 94
Distance to the 52-week high (market factor)
Net Issuance 80
Share count: buybacks or dilution?

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Revenue & earnings trend

Growth Quality ⓘGrowth is valuable only when reinvestment earns attractive returns (Aswath Damodaran): sustainable growth depends on return on capital, reinvestment and efficiency. Basis: total company revenue over the periods shown on the cards (3Y/5Y/all years), not per share, so a merger can show up as a growth jump; per-share earnings growth is in the value-creation card. 69/100
Revenue is growing, but margins or cash flow do not fully confirm the trend.
Revenue growth 1 year
+13.0%
Revenue growth 3 years ⓘMeasures the company's TOTAL revenue from reported annual statements: compound average growth per year (CAGR) from the fiscal year 3, 5 or N years back to the most recent comparable fiscal year. Not per share: buybacks do not change this number, and a merger can appear as a growth jump. Per-share growth (which does include buybacks) is in the value-creation card.
+16.9%
Revenue growth 5 years ⓘMeasures the company's TOTAL revenue from reported annual statements: compound average growth per year (CAGR) from the fiscal year 3, 5 or N years back to the most recent comparable fiscal year. Not per share: buybacks do not change this number, and a merger can appear as a growth jump. Per-share growth (which does include buybacks) is in the value-creation card.
+8.3%
Start year 2020 (pandemic). Over 10 years: +4.6% a year
Revenue growth 27 years ⓘMeasures the company's TOTAL revenue from reported annual statements: compound average growth per year (CAGR) from the fiscal year 3, 5 or N years back to the most recent comparable fiscal year. Not per share: buybacks do not change this number, and a merger can appear as a growth jump. Per-share growth (which does include buybacks) is in the value-creation card.
+5.6%
What shareholders gained per year (last 5 years) (mathematically smoothed) ⓘWhat the business itself delivers per year: earnings growth per share plus the dividend yield. This is what you get IF the market keeps valuing the stock the same way: it contains no assumption about the market changing its mind. Computed per share, so buybacks count and a merger does not pass as growth. For a company that pays no dividend it is pure earnings growth per share. Period: earnings growth per share as CAGR over the last 5 reported fiscal years (annual statements), plus the current dividend yield. The start value is the median of the three years around the start, so a single crisis year (a pandemic or a write-down) does not distort the rate. Smoothed = median of all growth paths between the years of the window (trend line on the logarithm of earnings per share): a single extreme year cannot distort the rate. The reported figure stays in the tooltip.
−2.9%
Earnings growth per share plus dividend.
Earnings per share, growth per year−6.4%
Dividend (yield on the price)3.5%
Pace: 5 vs 10 years ⓘTwo data points, not a trend model: earnings growth per share over the last 5 fiscal years against the last 10. Labelled "steady" when both rates are within 3 percentage points of each other, otherwise picking up or flattening. Shown only when ten years of history exist.−5% vs 5%, slowing
Profit margin 2020 to 2025 ⓘOperating margin then vs now, from reported annual statements. A falling margin after a boom year is the classic peak-earnings signal: the growth rate then leans on an inflated base.21% → 10%
2025 sits 113% above its own trend. The rate follows the median trend of the last 5 years, not that single year.
Start year 2020 (pandemic)

Growth Forecast

Little optimism in the price
The price assumes less growth than the company has delivered so far.
What the price assumes ⓘThis turns our valuation around: instead of asking what the share is worth, it asks what growth the current price requires. It uses the cash the company keeps after all spending (free cash flow), the same discount rate as our models, five years of growth, then slowing evenly to 2 % a year by year ten. Compared with the analysts' sales forecasts extended to the same five years (at least three analysts, for context only, it does not enter the Fair Value): within 3 percentage points counts as "in line" (amber), below that little optimism (green), above that a lot of optimism (red).
−17.8%
Yearly growth needed for the next five years to justify today's price.
What forecasts expect
n/a
No analyst forecast available.
After inflation (USA: IMF forecast 2.4% a year to 2030, 3.1% from 2016 to 2025) that is about −19.7% a year for the price.

SAFT screens 29% overvalued. Compare with The Progressive Corporation →

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Peer GroupⓘHow this stock ranks against its industry: the green marker is this stock, the band is the typical 25–75% peer range, and the tick is the median.Insurance - Property & Casualty · 119 stocks

Beats the industry median on 4/15 measures
Overall it trails its industry peers.
Valuation
Quality Score 66 · Top 25%
Fair Value upside −23% · Below median
Profitability
Return on equity (TTM) 7% · Bottom 25%
Return on assets 2% · Below median
Net margin (TTM) 5% · Below median
Operating margin (TTM) −5% · Bottom 25%
Growth and dividend
Revenue growth 4% · Below median
Dividend yield (TTM) 3.5% · Above median
Balance sheet
Debt / equity 0.04× · Lowest 25%

Valuation Multiplesvs Insurance - Property & Casualty median · lower = cheaper

P/E (TTM) 24.5× · Priciest 25%
P/B 1.71× · Pricier than median
P/S (TTM) 1.20× · Pricier than median
P/FCF 7.9× · Pricier than median
EV/EBITDA 16.7× · Priciest 25%
PEG 0.95× · Cheaper than median

Strength profile in five axes (Snowflake)

VALUEFUTUREPASTHEALTHDIVIDEND
This stock
VALUEFUTUREPASTHEALTHDIVIDEND
Sector peers
VALUE (fair-value potential)3 · sector 20
FUTURE (revenue growth)22 · sector 32
PAST (return on equity)30 · sector 56
HEALTH (low debt)98 · sector 91
DIVIDEND (yield)71 · sector 50

Context: sector, industry, market

Values & ESG

Does this company touch areas you may want to avoid? The classification is inferred from sector and industry.

None of the checked exposures detected

Similar stocks

10 more Insurance - Property & Casualty stocks, each showing price versus our Fair Value estimate.

Stock Price Fair Value vs Fair Value
The Progressive Corporation PGR $206.94 $160.25 −23%
Chubb Limited CB $335.77 $234.73 −30%
The Travelers Companies, Inc TRV $362.01 $274.42 −24%
The Allstate Corporation ALL $229.50 $316.11 +38%
The People's Insurance Company 601319 ¥8.07 ¥9.25 +15%
PICC Property and Casualty Company 2328 HK$16.84 HK$18.92 +12%
Intact Financial Corporation IFC C$254.29 C$167.46 −34%
Fairfax Financial Holdings FFH C$2,260 C$3,226 +43%
Cincinnati Financial Corporation CINF $165.83 $146.70 −12%
W. R. Berkley Corporation WRB $68.17 $47.08 −31%

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Cite: Fair Value Calculator (2026). "Safety Insurance Group Inc Fair Value". https://www.fairvalue-calculator.com/stock/SAFT

Frequently asked questions

Is Safety Insurance Group Inc (SAFT) overvalued or undervalued?
As of Sep 23, 2026, our model estimates a fair value of $80.01 versus a price of $103.51, about −23% upside (overvalued).
What is the fair value of SAFT?
Our model-based fair value for Safety Insurance Group Inc is $80.01 (as of Sep 23, 2026), built from audited fundamentals. The current price: $103.51.
What is the quality score of SAFT?
Safety Insurance Group Inc has a Quality Score of 64/100. It measures business quality (profitability, growth, cash flow, balance-sheet strength, investment discipline, share issuance). Market factors such as price momentum and volatility do not enter the number; they are shown separately in the detail view.
What is the price target for Safety Insurance Group Inc (SAFT)?
Our model-based price target is the fair value of $80.01 (as of Sep 23, 2026) from 4 valuation models. Cautious scenario $60.01, optimistic scenario $100.01. It is a calculation from audited fundamentals, not an analyst target.
What is the Safety Insurance Group Inc stock forecast for 2026?
Our models put fair value at $80.01, about −23% upside versus a price of $103.51 (overvalued). Cautious scenario $60.01, optimistic scenario $100.01. The calculation is refreshed regularly with new filings.
What is the revenue of Safety Insurance Group Inc (SAFT)?
Safety Insurance Group Inc reported trailing-twelve-month revenue of about $1.3B (latest available figure, as of Sep 23, 2026).
Does Safety Insurance Group Inc pay a dividend?
Safety Insurance Group Inc currently shows a dividend yield of about 3.54% relative to its recent price (as of Sep 23, 2026).
What growth is priced into Safety Insurance Group Inc (SAFT)?
For today's price to be fair in a discounted-cash-flow model, Safety Insurance Group Inc would have to grow free cash flow by -17.8 % per year for five years (discount rate 9.8 %, then slowing evenly to 2 % perpetual growth by year ten). Over the last 5 years revenue grew +8.3 % per year. As of Sep 23, 2026.
What discount rate (WACC) does the fair value of SAFT use?
Our models discount Safety Insurance Group Inc at 9.8 %: a base by market capitalisation (small), damped by beta 0.23, country premium for USA. The same rate applies in all 26 models.
What is a reverse DCF?
A reverse DCF turns the usual calculation around. Instead of deriving a value from assumptions, it takes today's price as given and asks: what free-cash-flow growth would a company have to deliver for exactly this price to be fair? The result is not a forecast but the expectation already priced in. For Safety Insurance Group Inc that is -17.8 % per year a year over ten years, using the same discount rate (9.8 %) and the same formula as our fair value.
How much growth has Safety Insurance Group Inc (SAFT) delivered so far?
Over the past 5 years revenue at Safety Insurance Group Inc grew +8.3 % a year. The price currently implies -17.8 % per year free-cash-flow growth a year. Comparing the two shows how much confidence is in the price: if it demands more than has been delivered, the business has to accelerate for the maths to work.
How fast is the sector of Safety Insurance Group Inc (SAFT) growing?
The median revenue growth in the sector is +8.4 % a year. That is the yardstick for the growth priced into Safety Insurance Group Inc (-17.8 % per year a year): it shows whether the expectation is within the usual range or beyond it.
What is the free cash flow yield of Safety Insurance Group Inc (SAFT)?
The free-cash-flow yield on the price is 12.58 %: that much free cash flow Safety Insurance Group Inc produces per unit of market value. When it exceeds the discount rate of our models (9.8 %), the business already earns more than its cost of capital demands, and the price needs little additional growth.
What is the intrinsic value of Safety Insurance Group Inc (SAFT)?
Intrinsic value and fair value mean the same thing: what the business is worth on its numbers, independent of the share price. For Safety Insurance Group Inc it is $80.01 per share (as of Sep 23, 2026), against a price of $103.51. It is the blended result of 4 valuation models (cash flow, earnings, asset, dividend).
Is Safety Insurance Group Inc stock overvalued or undervalued in 2026?
As of Sep 23, 2026, SAFT trades above its calculated fair value: price $103.51, fair value $80.01, a gap of about −23% (overvalued). The calculation is refreshed with each new quarterly report, so the verdict can change during the year.
Is fair value the same as the market price of SAFT?
No. The price is what the market pays today ($103.51); the fair value is what the company's own numbers justify ($80.01). For Safety Insurance Group Inc the two are $23.50 per share apart. That gap is exactly why we show both numbers side by side.
How much is Safety Insurance Group Inc worth?
The market values Safety Insurance Group Inc at about $1.5B (market capitalisation, as of Sep 23, 2026). Per share that is $103.51; our models calculate a fair value of $80.01 per share.
What do the bullish and bearish scenarios say about SAFT?
Our models span a range for Safety Insurance Group Inc: cautious scenario $60.01, base $80.01, optimistic $100.01 per share (as of Sep 23, 2026, price $103.51). The range comes from different growth and margin assumptions, not from analyst opinions.
What is the P/E ratio of SAFT?
Safety Insurance Group Inc trades at a price-to-earnings ratio of 24.5 (as of Sep 23, 2026). A P/E on its own says little: it compares the price with ONE year of profit, while our fair value of $80.01 is built from several models across several years. Other multiples: PEG 1.0, P/B 1.7, P/S 1.2, EV/EBITDA 16.7.
What is the PEG ratio of SAFT?
The PEG ratio of Safety Insurance Group Inc is 0.95 (P/E divided by earnings growth, as of Sep 23, 2026). That is below 1, so growth is priced more cheaply than the earnings multiple alone suggests.
How solid is the balance sheet of Safety Insurance Group Inc (SAFT)?
Balance-sheet figures for Safety Insurance Group Inc (as of Sep 23, 2026): return on equity 7.4%, debt of 0.04 per unit of equity. They feed the Quality Score of 64/100, which measures business quality independently of the share price.
How far is SAFT from its 52-week high?
Safety Insurance Group Inc trades at $103.51, at its 52-week high of $103.79 and 59% above the low of $64.90 (as of Sep 23, 2026). Distance from the high says nothing about value: that is what the fair value of $80.01 is for.
Which stocks are comparable to Safety Insurance Group Inc?
From the same area (Financial Services) we also value The Progressive Corporation, Chubb Limited, The Travelers Companies, Inc, The Allstate Corporation, among others. Each of them has its own fair-value calculation on this site using the same models, so the comparison is like for like.
Is Safety Insurance Group Inc stock attractive at the current price?
The data as of Sep 23, 2026: price $103.51, calculated fair value $80.01 (−23%), Quality Score 64/100, from 4 models. Whether that fits your horizon and risk tolerance is your call. We provide the calculation, not investment advice.
How is the fair value of SAFT calculated?
We run Safety Insurance Group Inc through 4 models from four families: discounted cash flow, earnings models, asset and balance-sheet models, and dividend models. Every model gets the same audited fundamentals; the result is the weighted average of $80.01, with the spread shown as a cautious and an optimistic scenario.
Is it still worth investing in stocks now?
The global stock market currently sits 14.1 % above its aggregate fair value. Safety Insurance Group Inc itself currently trades above fair value. An expensive market is no reason to stay out and no reason to buy everything at once: keep a broad savings plan running, buy single stocks only with money you can do without, and hold part of your money liquid while the market is high. The full picture including sectors is on is it worth investing now.
What is the share price of Safety Insurance Group Inc (SAFT)?
The closing price on Sep 23, 2026 was $103.51. Our model-based fair value is $80.01, about −23% upside (overvalued). We carry closing prices from our data provider, not a live tick.
What should I pay attention to with Safety Insurance Group Inc right now?
The price sits above even our optimistic bull case ($100.01). The favourable scenario is already priced in. Solid but not exceptional quality (64/100) and above fair value, neither a clear bargain nor a standout compounder. For a financial, book-value and earnings-based methods matter more than a cash-flow DCF, which fits banks and insurers poorly.
Where does the earnings growth of Safety Insurance Group Inc (SAFT) come from?
Earnings per share at Safety Insurance Group Inc grew +0.5 % a year from 2014 to 2025. Broken into its drivers: revenue per share +3.7 %, EBIT margin −5.9 %, tax rate +1.2 %, residual (interest, one-offs) +1.7 %. The four rates multiply to the earnings growth rate, they do not add up. Start and end are three-year averages so a single exceptional year does not distort the result.

Key figures of Safety Insurance Group Inc

How large is the market capitalisation of Safety Insurance Group Inc (SAFT)?
The market capitalisation of Safety Insurance Group Inc is $1.5B. The stock-market value of the whole company: share price times number of shares. It is what the market asks for the entire business today.
What is the P/S ratio of Safety Insurance Group Inc (SAFT)?
The price-to-sales ratio of Safety Insurance Group Inc is 1.94 (P/E × margin). Price to sales: market value relative to yearly revenue. Useful when profit is thin or distorted.
What are the earnings per share of Safety Insurance Group Inc (SAFT)?
Earnings per share at Safety Insurance Group Inc are $4.23 (price ÷ EPS = P/E 24.5). Earnings per share over the last twelve months: total profit spread across every single share.
What is the dividend yield of Safety Insurance Group Inc (SAFT)?
The dividend yield of Safety Insurance Group Inc is 3.5% (payout 86.5%). Yearly dividend relative to the share price. 3% pays 3 per 100 invested. Below: how much of profit is used for it.
What is the net margin of Safety Insurance Group Inc (SAFT)?
The net margin of Safety Insurance Group Inc is 7.9% (fiscal year 2025). How much of every unit of revenue ends up as profit. 10% means 10 cents of profit per dollar of sales.
What is the return on equity of Safety Insurance Group Inc (SAFT)?
The return on equity (ROE) of Safety Insurance Group Inc is 7.4% (last twelve months). Profit relative to shareholders' equity, how efficiently the company works with its owners' money.
What is the EBIT return on assets of Safety Insurance Group Inc (SAFT)?
On an EBIT basis the return on assets of Safety Insurance Group Inc is 4.2% (avg 5y). Operating profit (EBIT) relative to everything the company owns, as a multi-year average. It describes the business model rather than one good or bad year.
What is the operating margin of Safety Insurance Group Inc (SAFT)?
The operating margin of Safety Insurance Group Inc is −5.5% (last twelve months). Profit from the core business (before interest and taxes) relative to revenue.
How fast is revenue growing at Safety Insurance Group Inc (SAFT)?
Revenue at Safety Insurance Group Inc is growing +4.4% versus a year earlier (3y avg +16.9%). How much revenue grew versus a year earlier (YoY). The 3-year average next to it puts the single year in context.
How fast are earnings growing at Safety Insurance Group Inc (SAFT)?
Earnings per share at Safety Insurance Group Inc are growing +153% versus a year earlier. How much earnings per share grew versus a year earlier.
How much net cash does Safety Insurance Group Inc (SAFT) hold?
Safety Insurance Group Inc holds more cash than debt, $12.0M net (fiscal year 2025). The company holds more cash than debt, a safety cushion.
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