Siam Cement PCL (SCVPY) fair value: what the stock is really worth
As of Sep 21, 2026: fair value of Siam Cement PCL $6.37, price $8.00, upside -20.3%, quality 52 out of 100. Calculated from audited financials with 26 valuation models and 37 quality factors, updated daily.
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Price vs Fair Value
White line = price, green steps = our fair value per fiscal year. As of Sep 24, 2026.
How to read this chart
60‑month range $3.63 – $11.94 · fair‑value band $5.35 – $8.47 · the $8.00 price screens above the $6.37 fair value. Green steps = our fair value per fiscal year (point-in-time, no hindsight). As of Sep 24, 2026.
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The Siam Cement Public Company Limited, together with its subsidiaries, operates in the cement and building materials, chemicals, and packaging businesses in Thailand and internationally. It operates through SCG Cement and Green Solutions; SCG Smart Living and SCG Distribution and Retail; SCG Decor; SCG Chemicals; SCGP; and Other segments.
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The Siam Cement Public Company Limited, together with its subsidiaries, operates in the cement and building materials, chemicals, and packaging businesses in Thailand and internationally. It operates through SCG Cement and Green Solutions; SCG Smart Living and SCG Distribution and Retail; SCG Decor; SCG Chemicals; SCGP; and Other segments. The SCG Cement and Green Solutions segment produces cement, concrete products, and refractory cement, manages natural resource utilization. The SCG Smart Living and SCG Distribution and Retail segment manufactures building materials, including roof, ceiling and wall, fiberglass insulation, wood substitute, landscape, lightweight concrete block, paint, including smart solutions for home and building, and energy management, etc. This segment also distributes and retails cement, building materials, and other home and living products, as well as provides international supply chain solutions; and invests in logistics business. The SCG Decor segment produces and distributes ceramic tiles, sanitary ware, and related products, services, and solutions. The SCG Chemicals segment manufactures and sells olefins, polyolefins, vinyl, other chemical products, as well as provides industrial services and solutions. The SCGP segment engages in the integrated packaging of fiber packaging, packaging paper, consumer and performance packaging, and medical supplies and labware; and recycling of packaging material. This segment is also involved in the fibrous business comprising foodservice packaging, and pulp and paper products. The Other segment engages in the clean energy, pertinent technologies, and investment in other businesses. The Siam Cement Public Company Limited was founded in 1913 and is headquartered in Bangkok, Thailand.
Stock analysis
Siam Cement PCL ADR (SCVPY) currently trades at $8.00, while our model-based Fair Value estimate is $6.37, implying the stock looks roughly 25.5% overvalued today.
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Valuation
How firm this estimate is: it rests on 22 models at a data quality of 84/100, which puts the evidence level at high.
Scenario range: $5.35 (bear) to $8.47 (bull), the price of $8.00 sits inside it. Bear and bull are the same models on cautious and optimistic assumptions, a range, not a price target.
Quality & growth
The Quality Score stands at 52/100 (solid quality), in the Industrials sector.
Weak Growth: Revenue growth is inconsistent: the periods point in different directions, so there is no trend to rely on.
Siam Cement PCL ADR reported revenue of 476B THB in FY2025 versus 530B THB in FY2021, a compound −2.6%/yr. Reported net income was 13.5B THB in FY2025, compounding −26.9%/yr from FY2021.
Key figures
Market cap $9.6B · P/E ratio 16.3 · P/S ratio 0.46 · EPS (TTM) $0.4900 · Dividend yield 2.1% · Net margin 2.8% · Return on equity 3.9% · Return on assets (EBIT) 2.7%.
Competitive moat
Our AI-assisted moat analysis scores the competitive advantage at 38 out of 100 (low confidence).
What moves the price
For context, the median of 10 Industrials peers we cover trades at 38% fair-value upside, at −20%, SCVPY screens richer than that median.
Fair Value models
Bear $5.35Fair Value $6.37Bull $8.47
Model ⓘEach model values the company its own way (discounted cash flow, earnings, assets, dividends). The fair value above is their evidence-weighted blend, not the output of a single model.Bear ⓘBear = the cautious scenario: the same model computed with conservative anchors (lower growth, margins and valuation multiples). Together with Bull it frames a plausible valuation range, not a price target.BaseBull ⓘBull = the optimistic scenario: the same model computed with favourable anchors (higher growth, margins and valuation multiples). Together with Bear it frames a plausible valuation range, not a price target.Evidence ⓘEvidence = how well-backed THIS model's estimate is for this stock (0–100): how complete and reliable its input data are, and how well the model fits the company. The final Fair Value is an evidence-weighted blend, so better-evidenced models count more. Green ≥70, amber 50–69, grey below 50.
Growth Quality ⓘGrowth is valuable only when reinvestment earns attractive returns (Aswath Damodaran): sustainable growth depends on return on capital, reinvestment and efficiency. Basis: total company revenue over the periods shown on the cards (3Y/5Y/all years), not per share, so a merger can show up as a growth jump; per-share earnings growth is in the value-creation card.40/100
Revenue growth is inconsistent: the periods point in different directions, so there is no trend to rely on.
Revenue growth 1 year
−6.8%
Revenue growth 3 years ⓘMeasures the company's TOTAL revenue from reported annual statements: compound average growth per year (CAGR) from the fiscal year 3, 5 or N years back to the most recent comparable fiscal year. Not per share: buybacks do not change this number, and a merger can appear as a growth jump. Per-share growth (which does include buybacks) is in the value-creation card.
−5.8%
Revenue growth 5 years ⓘMeasures the company's TOTAL revenue from reported annual statements: compound average growth per year (CAGR) from the fiscal year 3, 5 or N years back to the most recent comparable fiscal year. Not per share: buybacks do not change this number, and a merger can appear as a growth jump. Per-share growth (which does include buybacks) is in the value-creation card.
+3.6%
Start year 2020 (pandemic). Over 10 years: +0.8% a year
Revenue growth 23 years ⓘMeasures the company's TOTAL revenue from reported annual statements: compound average growth per year (CAGR) from the fiscal year 3, 5 or N years back to the most recent comparable fiscal year. Not per share: buybacks do not change this number, and a merger can appear as a growth jump. Per-share growth (which does include buybacks) is in the value-creation card.
+5.9%
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What shareholders gained per year (last 5 years), in THB ⓘWhat the business itself delivers per year: earnings growth per share plus the dividend yield. This is what you get IF the market keeps valuing the stock the same way: it contains no assumption about the market changing its mind. Computed per share, so buybacks count and a merger does not pass as growth. For a company that pays no dividend it is pure earnings growth per share. Period: earnings growth per share as CAGR over the last 5 reported fiscal years (annual statements), plus the current dividend yield. The start value is the median of the three years around the start, so a single crisis year (a pandemic or a write-down) does not distort the rate. Measured in THB: this currency has depreciated against the euro and dollar over the long run, so part of the nominal rate is currency erosion that never reaches a EUR/USD investor.
−14.9%
Earnings growth per share plus dividend.
Earnings per share, growth per year−16.9%
Dividend (yield on the price)2.1%
Pace: 5 vs 10 years ⓘTwo data points, not a trend model: earnings growth per share over the last 5 fiscal years against the last 10. Labelled "steady" when both rates are within 3 percentage points of each other, otherwise picking up or flattening. Shown only when ten years of history exist.−17% vs −11%, slowing
Profit margin 2020 to 2025 ⓘOperating margin then vs now, from reported annual statements. A falling margin after a boom year is the classic peak-earnings signal: the growth rate then leans on an inflated base.10% → 0%
Start year 2020 (pandemic)
Growth Forecast
A lot of optimism in the price
The price assumes more growth than the company has delivered so far and more than analysts expect.
What the price assumes ⓘThis turns our valuation around: instead of asking what the share is worth, it asks what growth the current price requires. It uses the cash the company keeps after all spending (free cash flow), the same discount rate as our models, five years of growth, then slowing evenly to 2 % a year by year ten. Compared with the analysts' sales forecasts extended to the same five years (at least three analysts, for context only, it does not enter the Fair Value): within 3 percentage points counts as "in line" (amber), below that little optimism (green), above that a lot of optimism (red).
+9.1%
Yearly growth needed for the next five years to justify today's price.
What forecasts expect ⓘAnalysts publish sales forecasts for the next two fiscal years. For the years after that, growth slows evenly to 2 % a year by year ten (2 % is the long-run rate our models use). Projected years are marked as such.
+5.4%
Yearly sales growth analysts expect, extended to five years.
After inflation (figures in THB, Thailand: IMF forecast 1.2% a year to 2030, 1.1% from 2016 to 2025) that is about +7.9% a year for the price and +4.2% for the forecasts.
News mood ⓘNews mood, the average tone of recent news (13 articles), rated against how stocks are usually covered. 🚀 Hype = unusually upbeat · 🙂 Positive = above average · 😐 Neutral = typical · 🙁 Negative = below average · 😨 Very negative = unusually downbeat. It reflects the tone of coverage, not our valuation.Positive
Recent news coverage is more positive than average.
Price, fair value, quality and upside side by side.
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Peer GroupⓘHow this stock ranks against its industry: the green marker is this stock, the band is the typical 25–75% peer range, and the tick is the median.Conglomerates · 378 stocks
Beats the industry median on 7/15 measures
A mixed picture versus its industry peers.
Valuation
Quality Score52 · Above median
Fair Value upside−26% · Below median
Profitability
Return on equity (TTM)4% · Below median
Return on assets0% · Below median
Net margin (TTM)4% · Above median
Operating margin (TTM)7% · Above median
Growth and dividend
Revenue growth−1% · Below median
Dividend yield (TTM)2.1% · Above median
Balance sheet
Debt / equity0.53× · Above median
Valuation Multiplesvs Conglomerates median · lower = cheaper
P/E (TTM)16.3× · Cheaper than median
P/B0.95× · Pricier than median
P/S (TTM)0.65× · Cheaper than median
P/FCF0.4× · Cheaper than median
EV/EBITDA13.7× · Pricier than median
PEG2.23× · Priciest 25%
Strength profile in five axes (Snowflake)
This stockSector peers
VALUE (fair-value potential)0· sector 33
FUTURE (revenue growth)0· sector 16
PAST (return on equity)15· sector 19
HEALTH (low debt)73· sector 89
DIVIDEND (yield)41· sector 40
VALUE 0: the price sits above our fair-value range.
For bloggers, editors and developers: paste this into your site or blog (a “Custom HTML” block in WordPress), it shows the current fair value and links back here. Free, plain HTML, and welcome. Full data streams (CSV/JSON) at /developers.
Is Siam Cement PCL (SCVPY) overvalued or undervalued?
As of Sep 24, 2026, our model estimates a fair value of $6.37 versus a price of $8.00, about −20% upside (overvalued).
What is the fair value of SCVPY?
Our model-based fair value for Siam Cement PCL ADR is $6.37 (as of Sep 24, 2026), built from audited fundamentals. The current price: $8.00.
What is the quality score of SCVPY?
Siam Cement PCL ADR has a Quality Score of 52/100. It measures business quality (profitability, growth, cash flow, balance-sheet strength, investment discipline, share issuance). Market factors such as price momentum and volatility do not enter the number; they are shown separately in the detail view.
What is the price target for Siam Cement PCL (SCVPY)?
Our model-based price target is the fair value of $6.37 (as of Sep 24, 2026) from 12 valuation models. Cautious scenario $5.35, optimistic scenario $8.47. It is a calculation from audited fundamentals, not an analyst target.
What is the Siam Cement PCL ADR stock forecast for 2026?
Our models put fair value at $6.37, about −20% upside versus a price of $8.00 (overvalued). Cautious scenario $5.35, optimistic scenario $8.47. The calculation is refreshed regularly with new filings.
What is the revenue of Siam Cement PCL (SCVPY)?
Siam Cement PCL ADR reported trailing-twelve-month revenue of about 496B THB (latest available figure, as of Sep 24, 2026).
Does Siam Cement PCL ADR pay a dividend?
Siam Cement PCL ADR currently shows a dividend yield of about 2.05% relative to its recent price (as of Sep 24, 2026).
What growth is priced into Siam Cement PCL (SCVPY)?
For today's price to be fair in a discounted-cash-flow model, Siam Cement PCL ADR would have to grow free cash flow by +9.1 % per year for five years (discount rate 8.8 %, then slowing evenly to 2 % perpetual growth by year ten). Over the last 5 years revenue grew +3.6 % per year. As of Sep 24, 2026.
What discount rate (WACC) does the fair value of SCVPY use?
Our models discount Siam Cement PCL ADR at 8.8 %: a base by market capitalisation (mid), damped by beta 0.62, country premium for USA. The same rate applies in all 26 models.
What is a reverse DCF?
A reverse DCF turns the usual calculation around. Instead of deriving a value from assumptions, it takes today's price as given and asks: what free-cash-flow growth would a company have to deliver for exactly this price to be fair? The result is not a forecast but the expectation already priced in. For Siam Cement PCL ADR that is +9.1 % per year a year over ten years, using the same discount rate (8.8 %) and the same formula as our fair value.
How much growth has Siam Cement PCL (SCVPY) delivered so far?
Over the past 5 years revenue at Siam Cement PCL ADR grew +3.6 % a year. The price currently implies +9.1 % per year free-cash-flow growth a year. Comparing the two shows how much confidence is in the price: if it demands more than has been delivered, the business has to accelerate for the maths to work.
How fast is the sector of Siam Cement PCL (SCVPY) growing?
The median revenue growth in the sector is +4.7 % a year. That is the yardstick for the growth priced into Siam Cement PCL ADR (+9.1 % per year a year): it shows whether the expectation is within the usual range or beyond it.
What is the free cash flow yield of Siam Cement PCL (SCVPY)?
The free-cash-flow yield on the price is 8.18 %: that much free cash flow Siam Cement PCL ADR produces per unit of market value. When it exceeds the discount rate of our models (8.8 %), the business already earns more than its cost of capital demands, and the price needs little additional growth.
What is the intrinsic value of Siam Cement PCL (SCVPY)?
Intrinsic value and fair value mean the same thing: what the business is worth on its numbers, independent of the share price. For Siam Cement PCL ADR it is $6.37 per share (as of Sep 24, 2026), against a price of $8.00. It is the blended result of 12 valuation models (cash flow, earnings, asset, dividend).
Is Siam Cement PCL ADR stock overvalued or undervalued in 2026?
As of Sep 24, 2026, SCVPY trades above its calculated fair value: price $8.00, fair value $6.37, a gap of about −20% (overvalued). The calculation is refreshed with each new quarterly report, so the verdict can change during the year.
Is fair value the same as the market price of SCVPY?
No. The price is what the market pays today ($8.00); the fair value is what the company's own numbers justify ($6.37). For Siam Cement PCL ADR the two are $1.63 per share apart. That gap is exactly why we show both numbers side by side.
How much is Siam Cement PCL ADR worth?
The market values Siam Cement PCL ADR at about $9.6B (market capitalisation, as of Sep 24, 2026). Per share that is $8.00; our models calculate a fair value of $6.37 per share.
What do the bullish and bearish scenarios say about SCVPY?
Our models span a range for Siam Cement PCL ADR: cautious scenario $5.35, base $6.37, optimistic $8.47 per share (as of Sep 24, 2026, price $8.00). The range comes from different growth and margin assumptions, not from analyst opinions.
What is the P/E ratio of SCVPY?
Siam Cement PCL ADR trades at a price-to-earnings ratio of 16.3 (as of Sep 24, 2026). A P/E on its own says little: it compares the price with ONE year of profit, while our fair value of $6.37 is built from several models across several years. Other multiples: PEG 2.2, P/B 1.0, P/S 0.6, EV/EBITDA 13.7.
What is the PEG ratio of SCVPY?
The PEG ratio of Siam Cement PCL ADR is 2.23 (P/E divided by earnings growth, as of Sep 24, 2026). That is above 1, so the growth is already paid for in the price.
How solid is the balance sheet of Siam Cement PCL (SCVPY)?
Balance-sheet figures for Siam Cement PCL ADR (as of Sep 24, 2026): return on equity 3.9%, debt of 0.53 per unit of equity. They feed the Quality Score of 52/100, which measures business quality independently of the share price.
Which stocks are comparable to Siam Cement PCL ADR?
From the same area (Industrials) we also value 3M Company, Honeywell International Inc, CITIC Limited, Poste Italiane S.p.A, among others. Each of them has its own fair-value calculation on this site using the same models, so the comparison is like for like.
Is Siam Cement PCL ADR stock attractive at the current price?
The data as of Sep 24, 2026: price $8.00, calculated fair value $6.37 (−20%), Quality Score 52/100, from 12 models. Whether that fits your horizon and risk tolerance is your call. We provide the calculation, not investment advice.
How is the fair value of SCVPY calculated?
We run Siam Cement PCL ADR through 12 models from four families: discounted cash flow, earnings models, asset and balance-sheet models, and dividend models. Every model gets the same audited fundamentals; the result is the weighted average of $6.37, with the spread shown as a cautious and an optimistic scenario.
Is it still worth investing in stocks now?
The global stock market currently sits 14.1 % above its aggregate fair value. Siam Cement PCL ADR itself currently trades above fair value. An expensive market is no reason to stay out and no reason to buy everything at once: keep a broad savings plan running, buy single stocks only with money you can do without, and hold part of your money liquid while the market is high. The full picture including sectors is on is it worth investing now.
What is the share price of Siam Cement PCL (SCVPY)?
The closing price on Sep 21, 2026 was $8.00. Our model-based fair value is $6.37, about −20% upside (overvalued). We carry closing prices from our data provider, not a live tick.
What should I pay attention to with Siam Cement PCL ADR right now?
Solid but not exceptional quality (52/100) and above fair value, neither a clear bargain nor a standout compounder. The price sits in the upper half of our model range, so the margin of safety is thin. The data supports the verdict: every model runs on fully documented inputs.
Where does the earnings growth of Siam Cement PCL (SCVPY) come from?
Earnings per share at Siam Cement PCL ADR grew −11.4 % a year from 2014 to 2025. Broken into its drivers: revenue per share +1.4 %, EBIT margin −10.8 %, tax rate −2.4 %, residual (interest, one-offs) +0.4 %. The four rates multiply to the earnings growth rate, they do not add up. Start and end are three-year averages so a single exceptional year does not distort the result.
Key figures of Siam Cement PCL ADR
How large is the market capitalisation of Siam Cement PCL (SCVPY)?
The market capitalisation of Siam Cement PCL ADR is $9.6B. The stock-market value of the whole company: share price times number of shares. It is what the market asks for the entire business today.
What is the P/S ratio of Siam Cement PCL (SCVPY)?
The price-to-sales ratio of Siam Cement PCL ADR is 0.46 (P/E × margin). Price to sales: market value relative to yearly revenue. Useful when profit is thin or distorted.
What are the earnings per share of Siam Cement PCL (SCVPY)?
Earnings per share at Siam Cement PCL ADR are $0.4900 (price ÷ EPS = P/E 16.3). Earnings per share over the last twelve months: total profit spread across every single share.
What is the dividend yield of Siam Cement PCL (SCVPY)?
The dividend yield of Siam Cement PCL ADR is 2.1% (payout 33.4%). Yearly dividend relative to the share price. 3% pays 3 per 100 invested. Below: how much of profit is used for it.
What is the net margin of Siam Cement PCL (SCVPY)?
The net margin of Siam Cement PCL ADR is 2.8% (fiscal year 2025). How much of every unit of revenue ends up as profit. 10% means 10 cents of profit per dollar of sales.
What is the return on equity of Siam Cement PCL (SCVPY)?
The return on equity (ROE) of Siam Cement PCL ADR is 3.9% (last twelve months). Profit relative to shareholders' equity, how efficiently the company works with its owners' money.
What is the EBIT return on assets of Siam Cement PCL (SCVPY)?
On an EBIT basis the return on assets of Siam Cement PCL ADR is 2.7% (avg 5y). Operating profit (EBIT) relative to everything the company owns, as a multi-year average. It describes the business model rather than one good or bad year.
What is the operating margin of Siam Cement PCL (SCVPY)?
The operating margin of Siam Cement PCL ADR is 7.0% (last twelve months). Profit from the core business (before interest and taxes) relative to revenue.
How fast is revenue growing at Siam Cement PCL (SCVPY)?
Revenue at Siam Cement PCL ADR is growing −0.9% versus a year earlier (3y avg −5.8%). How much revenue grew versus a year earlier (YoY). The 3-year average next to it puts the single year in context.
How fast are earnings growing at Siam Cement PCL (SCVPY)?
Earnings per share at Siam Cement PCL ADR are growing +466% versus a year earlier. How much earnings per share grew versus a year earlier.
How much net debt does Siam Cement PCL (SCVPY) carry?
The net debt of Siam Cement PCL ADR is 299B THB (fiscal year 2025, ≈ 11.4 yrs of FCF). Debt minus cash on hand. The note shows how many years of free cash flow could in theory pay it off.
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Broad data
Sep 24, 2026