Seibu Holdings Inc (SEIBF) fair value: what the stock is really worth
As of Nov 2, 2026: fair value (intrinsic value) of Seibu Holdings Inc stock $14.53, price $17.90, that is 18.8% below the price, quality 31 out of 100. Rating: overvalued. Calculated from audited financials with 7 of our 26 valuation models and 37 quality factors, updated daily.
69 individual criteria per stock, every one traceableSee the method →
Price vs Fair Value
White line = price, green steps = our fair value per fiscal year. As of Nov 9, 2026.
How to read this chart
60‑month range $2.56 – $32.75 · fair‑value band $11.75 – $18.52 · the $17.90 price screens above the $14.53 fair value. Green steps = our fair value per fiscal year (point-in-time, no hindsight). 2 fiscal years are left out: there the valuation rested on only a fraction of the usual models. As of Nov 9, 2026.
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Seibu Holdings Inc. engages in the urban transportation, hotel and leisure, real estate, construction, and baseball team management businesses in Japan and internationally.
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It operates through Urban Transportation and Railway Business, Hotel and Leisure Business, Real Estate Business, and Others segments.
The company offers railway, bus, and taxi transportation services; and operates hotels, hot springs and spas, golf club and courses, ski resorts, tennis courts, bowling alleys, skating rinks, fitness clubs, and other leisure facilities.
It also develops and sells detached houses, condominiums, and custom-built houses, and resort properties; leases office and residential facilities; and develops and operates stores in train stations, shopping malls, and other commercial facilities.
In addition, the company maintains a professional baseball team under the Saitama Seibu Lions name; hosts concerts and other non-baseball events through Belluna Dome; and operates and manages amusement parks, aquariums, movie theaters, and pools.
Further, it offers fire insurance, automobile insurance, travel insurance, and life insurance products; home and urban development services; pet care products; and builds cemeteries.
Additionally, the company operates cram school for elementary school students; drive-in facilities; rest areas; toll roads; car and bicycle parking lots. Seibu Holdings Inc. was incorporated in 2006 and is headquartered in Toshima, Japan.
Stock analysis
Seibu Holdings Inc (SEIBF) currently trades at $17.90, while our model-based Fair Value estimate is $14.53, 19% below the price, so the stock looks overvalued today.
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Valuation
Bull case: the Multiples group reads highest at a median of $39.67 per share, and 2 of the 7 models we run sit above the $17.90 price.
Bear case: the Dividend Discount group reads lowest at $4.39, and 5 of the 7 models stay below the price. Data coverage for this calculation is medium.
Scenario range: $11.75 (bear) to $18.52 (bull), the price of $17.90 sits inside it. Bear and bull are the same models on cautious and optimistic assumptions, a range, not a price target.
Quality & growth
The Quality Score stands at 31/100 (below-average quality), in the Industrials sector.
Expensive Growth: The company is growing, but growth may require heavy reinvestment or weak cash conversion.
Seibu Holdings Inc reported revenue of ¥517B in FY2026 versus ¥397B in FY2022, a compound +6.8%/yr. Reported net income was ¥39.1B in FY2026, compounding +38.5%/yr from FY2022. FY2022 was a trough year, so the rate overstates the trend.
Key figures
Market cap $4.6B Mid · P/E ratio 16.7 · P/S ratio 1.27 · EPS (TTM) $1.07 · Dividend yield 1.5% · Net margin 7.6% · Return on equity 7.5% · Return on assets (EBIT) 4.4% (5-year average).
Competitive moat
Our AI-assisted moat analysis scores the competitive advantage at 42 out of 100 (low confidence).
What moves the price
The share trades about 45% below its 52-week high and 81% above its 52-week low, currently below its 200-day average.
For context, the median of 10 Industrials peers we cover trades at 8% fair-value upside, at −19%, SEIBF screens richer than that median.
Fair Value models
Bear$11.75Fair Value $14.53Bull$18.52
Price $17.90 · Downside -18.8%
Model ⓘEach model values the company its own way (discounted cash flow, earnings, assets, dividends). The fair value above starts from their evidence-weighted blend, not from a single model. In cyclical trough or peak years, after dilution or a stock split it is adjusted afterwards, so it can sit above or below the models. Based on fiscal year 2026 figures (about 7 months old). Earnings retained since then ($0.4916 per share) are deliberately not added.Bear ⓘBear = the cautious scenario: the same model computed with conservative anchors (lower growth, margins and valuation multiples). Together with Bull it frames a plausible valuation range, not a price target.BaseBull ⓘBull = the optimistic scenario: the same model computed with favourable anchors (higher growth, margins and valuation multiples). Together with Bear it frames a plausible valuation range, not a price target. If a model's bull case is above four times its base value, the table shows that limit with a > sign (like the overall Bull above): beyond it no assumption holds.Coverage ⓘCoverage = how well-backed THIS model's estimate is for this stock (0–100): how complete and reliable its input data are, and how well the model fits the company. The final Fair Value is an evidence-weighted blend, so better-evidenced models count more. Green ≥70, amber 50–69, grey below 50.
Growth Quality ⓘGrowth is valuable only when reinvestment earns attractive returns (Aswath Damodaran): sustainable growth depends on return on capital, reinvestment and efficiency. Basis: total company revenue over the periods shown on the cards (3Y/5Y/all years), not per share, so a merger can show up as a growth jump; per-share earnings growth is in the value-creation card.34/100
The company is growing, but growth may require heavy reinvestment or weak cash conversion.
Revenue growth 1 year
−42.7%
Revenue growth 3 years ⓘMeasures the company's TOTAL revenue from reported annual statements: compound average growth per year (CAGR) from the fiscal year 3, 5 or N years back to the most recent comparable fiscal year. Not per share: buybacks do not change this number, and a merger can appear as a growth jump. Per-share growth (which does include buybacks) is in the value-creation card.
+6.4%
Revenue growth 5 years ⓘMeasures the company's TOTAL revenue from reported annual statements: compound average growth per year (CAGR) from the fiscal year 3, 5 or N years back to the most recent comparable fiscal year. Not per share: buybacks do not change this number, and a merger can appear as a growth jump. Per-share growth (which does include buybacks) is in the value-creation card.
+8.9%
Start year 2021 (pandemic). Over 10 years: +0.2% a year
Revenue growth 18 years ⓘMeasures the company's TOTAL revenue from reported annual statements: compound average growth per year (CAGR) from the fiscal year 3, 5 or N years back to the most recent comparable fiscal year. Not per share: buybacks do not change this number, and a merger can appear as a growth jump. Per-share growth (which does include buybacks) is in the value-creation card.
−1.4%
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What shareholders gained per year (last 5 years), in JPY ⓘWhat the business itself delivers per year: earnings growth per share plus the dividend yield. This is what you get IF the market keeps valuing the stock the same way: it contains no assumption about the market changing its mind. Computed per share, so buybacks count and a merger does not pass as growth. For a company that pays no dividend it is pure earnings growth per share. Period: earnings growth per share as CAGR over the last 5 reported fiscal years (annual statements), plus the current dividend yield. The start value is the median of the three years around the start, so a single crisis year (a pandemic or a write-down) does not distort the rate. Measured in JPY: this currency has depreciated against the euro and dollar over the long run, so part of the nominal rate is currency erosion that never reaches a EUR/USD investor.
≈ +45.0%
Earnings growth per share plus dividend.
Earnings per share, growth per year≈ +43.5%
Dividend (yield on the price)1.5%
Pace: 5 vs 10 years ⓘTwo data points, not a trend model: earnings growth per share over the last 5 fiscal years against the last 10. Labelled "steady" when both rates are within 3 percentage points of each other, otherwise picking up or flattening. Shown only when ten years of history exist.base effect: 43.5% / 0.3%
Profit margin 2021 to 2026 ⓘOperating margin then vs now, from reported annual statements. A falling margin after a boom year is the classic peak-earnings signal: the growth rate then leans on an inflated base.−15% → 9%
⚠ Base effect: the rate starts in the earnings trough around 2021 (starting value 25.3 per share, median 147 in 2016 to 2019). It measures the recovery from the trough, not lasting growth.
News mood ⓘNews mood, the average tone of recent news (3 articles), rated against how stocks are usually covered. 🚀 Hype = unusually upbeat · 🙂 Positive = above average · 😐 Neutral = typical · 🙁 Negative = below average · 😨 Very negative = unusually downbeat. It reflects the tone of coverage, not our valuation.Hype
Recent news coverage is unusually upbeat, far more positive than stocks are typically covered.
AI conclusion: Prime urban and resort real estate distinguishes the railways, hotels and leisure conglomerate, yet weak cash conversion and elevated debt relative to equity point to limited moat durability.
Main risk: Elevated debt relative to equity combined with weak cash conversion risks constraining refinancing options for the capital-intensive real estate, railway and leisure operations.
Seibu owns prime urban and resort real estate that sets it apart from peers in its conglomerate structure of railways, hotels and leisure. A Capital Allocation Review Committee formed in July is now examining priorities to maximize net asset value, following an investor presentation that highlights both the potential and the challenges of the integrated model. Will the review unlock asset value through greater discipline or reinforce the current operational mix?
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Peer GroupⓘHow this stock ranks against its industry: the green marker is this stock, the band is the typical 25–75% peer range, and the tick is the median.Conglomerates · 304 stocks
Beats the industry median on 4/13 measures
Overall it trails its industry peers.
Valuation
Quality Score31 · Bottom 25%
Fair Value upside−18.8% · Below median
Profitability
Return on equity (12 months)7.5% · Above median
Return on assets2.3% · Below median
Net margin (12 months)7.9% · Above median
Operating margin (12 months)16.9% · Top 25%
Growth and dividend
Revenue growth (quarter YoY)16.7% · Above median
Dividend yield (12 months)1.5% · Below median
Balance sheet
Debt / equity0.91× · Highest 25%
Valuation Multiplesvs Conglomerates median · lower = cheaper
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Is Seibu Holdings Inc (SEIBF) overvalued or undervalued?
As of Nov 9, 2026, our model estimates a fair value of $14.53 versus the last price from Nov 2, 2026 of $17.90, about 19% lower (overvalued).
What is the fair value of SEIBF?
Our model-based fair value for Seibu Holdings Inc is $14.53 (as of Nov 9, 2026), built from audited fundamentals. Last price (from Nov 2, 2026): $17.90.
What is the quality score of SEIBF?
Seibu Holdings Inc has a Quality Score of 31/100. It measures business quality (profitability, growth, cash flow, balance-sheet strength, investment discipline, share issuance). Market factors such as price momentum and volatility do not enter the number; they are shown separately in the detail view.
What is the price target for Seibu Holdings Inc (SEIBF)?
Our model-based price target is the fair value of $14.53 (as of Nov 9, 2026) from 7 valuation models. Cautious scenario $11.75, optimistic scenario $18.52. It is a calculation from audited fundamentals, not an analyst target.
What is the Seibu Holdings Inc stock forecast for 2026?
Our models put fair value at $14.53, about 19% lower versus the last price from Nov 2, 2026 of $17.90 (overvalued). Cautious scenario $11.75, optimistic scenario $18.52. The calculation is refreshed regularly with new filings.
What is the revenue of Seibu Holdings Inc (SEIBF)?
Seibu Holdings Inc reported trailing-twelve-month revenue of about ¥535B (latest available figure, as of Nov 9, 2026).
Does Seibu Holdings Inc pay a dividend?
Seibu Holdings Inc currently shows a dividend yield of 1.48% relative to its recent price (as of Nov 9, 2026).
How much is the dividend of Seibu Holdings Inc (SEIBF) and when is the ex-dividend date?
Seibu Holdings Inc pays a dividend of $0.265 per share a year, a dividend yield of 1.5%. The next ex-dividend date is Mar 30, 2027. A dividend has been paid every year since at least 2022. The payout ratio is 27.3% of earnings. Our assessment: Watch coverage. The dividend isn’t fully covered by free cash flow or earnings, part of it is funded from reserves or debt. Fine for now, but worth watching: if it stays uncovered, the dividend could be cut.
What is the intrinsic value of Seibu Holdings Inc (SEIBF)?
Intrinsic value and fair value mean the same thing: what the business is worth on its numbers, independent of the share price. For Seibu Holdings Inc it is $14.53 per share (as of Nov 9, 2026), against a price of $17.90. It is the blended result of 7 valuation models in 5 families (Earnings-Based, Dividend Discount, Multiples, Asset-Based, Economic Profit).
Is Seibu Holdings Inc stock overvalued or undervalued in 2026?
As of Nov 9, 2026, SEIBF trades above its calculated fair value: price $17.90, fair value $14.53, a gap of about −19% (overvalued). The calculation is refreshed with each new quarterly report, so the verdict can change during the year.
Is fair value the same as the market price of SEIBF?
No. The price is what the market pays today ($17.90); the fair value is what the company's own numbers justify ($14.53). For Seibu Holdings Inc the two are $3.37 per share apart. That gap is exactly why we show both numbers side by side.
How much is Seibu Holdings Inc worth?
The market values Seibu Holdings Inc at about $4.6B (market capitalisation, as of Nov 9, 2026). Per share that is $17.90; our models calculate a fair value of $14.53 per share.
What do the bullish and bearish scenarios say about SEIBF?
Our models span a range for Seibu Holdings Inc: cautious scenario $11.75, base $14.53, optimistic $18.52 per share (as of Nov 9, 2026, price $17.90). The range comes from different growth and margin assumptions, not from analyst opinions.
What is the P/E ratio of SEIBF?
Seibu Holdings Inc trades at a price-to-earnings ratio of 16.7 (as of Nov 9, 2026). A P/E on its own says little: it compares the price with ONE year of profit, while our fair value of $14.53 is built from several models across several years. Other multiples: P/B 1.3, P/S 1.3, EV/EBITDA 10.6.
How solid is the balance sheet of Seibu Holdings Inc (SEIBF)?
Balance-sheet figures for Seibu Holdings Inc (as of Nov 9, 2026): return on equity 7.5%, debt of 0.91 per unit of equity. They feed the Quality Score of 31/100, which measures business quality independently of the share price.
How far is SEIBF from its 52-week high?
Seibu Holdings Inc trades at $17.90, about 45% below its 52-week high of $32.75 and 81% above the low of $9.90 (as of Nov 6, 2026). Distance from the high says nothing about value: that is what the fair value of $14.53 is for.
Which stocks are comparable to Seibu Holdings Inc?
From the same area (Industrials) we also value 3M Company, Honeywell International Inc, Swire Pacific Limited, SGH Limited, among others. Each of them has its own fair-value calculation on this site using the same models, so the comparison is like for like.
Is Seibu Holdings Inc stock attractive at the current price?
The data as of Nov 9, 2026: price $17.90, calculated fair value $14.53 (−19%), Quality Score 31/100, from 7 models. Whether that fits your horizon and risk tolerance is your call. We provide the calculation, not investment advice.
How is the fair value of SEIBF calculated?
We run Seibu Holdings Inc through 7 models from 5 families: Earnings-Based, Dividend Discount, Multiples, Asset-Based, Economic Profit. Every model gets the same audited fundamentals; the fair value of $14.53 builds on their evidence-weighted average, with the spread shown as a cautious and an optimistic scenario.
Is it still worth investing in stocks now?
The global stock market currently sits 13.3% above its aggregate fair value. Seibu Holdings Inc itself currently trades above fair value. An expensive market is no reason to stay out and no reason to buy everything at once: keep a broad savings plan running, buy single stocks only with money you can do without, and hold part of your money liquid while the market is high. The full picture including sectors is on is it worth investing now.
What is the share price of Seibu Holdings Inc (SEIBF)?
The latest price we hold is from Nov 2, 2026 and stands at $17.90. Our model-based fair value is $14.53, about 19% lower (overvalued). We carry closing prices from our data provider, not a live tick.
What should I pay attention to with Seibu Holdings Inc right now?
Weak quality (31/100) and above fair value at the same time, the margin of safety is missing on both counts. The price sits in the upper half of our model range, so the margin of safety is thin. Read the verdict with care: some models are missing inputs, so the estimate scatters more than usual.
Where does the earnings growth of Seibu Holdings Inc (SEIBF) come from?
Earnings per share at Seibu Holdings Inc grew +11.9 % a year from 2015 to 2026. Broken into its drivers: revenue per share +4.6 %, EBIT margin +6.2 %, tax rate −1.5 %, residual (interest, one-offs) +2.3 %. The four rates multiply to the earnings growth rate, they do not add up. Start and end are three-year averages so a single exceptional year does not distort the result.
Key figures of Seibu Holdings Inc
How large is the market capitalisation of Seibu Holdings Inc (SEIBF)?
The market capitalisation of Seibu Holdings Inc is $4.6B. The stock-market value of the whole company: share price times number of shares. It is what the market asks for the entire business today.
What is the P/S ratio of Seibu Holdings Inc (SEIBF)?
The price-to-sales ratio of Seibu Holdings Inc is 1.27 (P/E × margin). Price to sales: market value relative to yearly revenue. Useful when profit is thin or distorted.
What are the earnings per share of Seibu Holdings Inc (SEIBF)?
Earnings per share at Seibu Holdings Inc are $1.07 (price ÷ EPS = P/E 16.7). Earnings per share over the last twelve months: total profit spread across every single share.
What is the dividend yield of Seibu Holdings Inc (SEIBF)?
The dividend yield of Seibu Holdings Inc is 1.5% (payout 24.8%). Yearly dividend relative to the share price. 3% pays 3 per 100 invested. Below: how much of profit is used for it.
What is the net margin of Seibu Holdings Inc (SEIBF)?
The net margin of Seibu Holdings Inc is 7.6% (fiscal year 2026). How much of every unit of revenue ends up as profit. 10% means 10 cents of profit per dollar of sales.
What is the return on equity of Seibu Holdings Inc (SEIBF)?
The return on equity (ROE) of Seibu Holdings Inc is 7.5% (last twelve months). Profit relative to shareholders' equity, how efficiently the company works with its owners' money.
What is the EBIT return on assets of Seibu Holdings Inc (SEIBF)?
On an EBIT basis the return on assets of Seibu Holdings Inc is 4.4% (avg 5y). Operating profit (EBIT) relative to everything the company owns, as a multi-year average. It describes the business model rather than one good or bad year.
What is the operating margin of Seibu Holdings Inc (SEIBF)?
The operating margin of Seibu Holdings Inc is 16.9% (last twelve months). Profit from the core business (before interest and taxes) relative to revenue.
How fast is revenue growing at Seibu Holdings Inc (SEIBF)?
Revenue at Seibu Holdings Inc is growing +16.7% versus a year earlier (3y avg +6.4%). How much revenue grew versus a year earlier (YoY). The 3-year average next to it puts the single year in context.
How fast are earnings growing at Seibu Holdings Inc (SEIBF)?
Earnings per share at Seibu Holdings Inc are growing +28.3% versus a year earlier. How much earnings per share grew versus a year earlier.
How much free cash flow does Seibu Holdings Inc (SEIBF) generate?
The free cash flow of Seibu Holdings Inc is −¥154B (fiscal year 2026). The cash truly left after running and investing in the business, this is what pays dividends and buybacks.
How much net debt does Seibu Holdings Inc (SEIBF) carry?
The net debt of Seibu Holdings Inc is ¥589B (fiscal year 2026). Debt minus cash on hand. The note shows how many years of free cash flow could in theory pay it off.
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Nov 9, 2026