Seibu Holdings Inc (SEIBF) fair value: what the stock is really worth
As of Sep 18, 2026: fair value of Seibu Holdings Inc $14.50, price $17.90, upside -19.0%, quality 30 out of 100. Calculated from audited financials with 26 valuation models and 37 quality factors, updated daily.
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Price vs Fair Value
White line = price, green steps = our fair value per fiscal year, dashed = 300-day average. As of Sep 24, 2026.
How to read this chart
60‑month range $2.58 – $33.00 · fair‑value band $11.63 – $18.49 · the $17.90 price screens above the $14.50 fair value. Green steps = our fair value per fiscal year (point-in-time, no hindsight). 2 fiscal years are left out: there the valuation rested on only a fraction of the usual models. Dashed = 300-day average. As of Sep 24, 2026.
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Seibu Holdings Inc. engages in the urban transportation, hotel and leisure, real estate, construction, and baseball team management businesses in Japan and internationally. It operates through Urban Transportation and Railway Business, Hotel and Leisure Business, Real Estate Business, and Others segments.
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Seibu Holdings Inc. engages in the urban transportation, hotel and leisure, real estate, construction, and baseball team management businesses in Japan and internationally. It operates through Urban Transportation and Railway Business, Hotel and Leisure Business, Real Estate Business, and Others segments. The company offers railway, bus, and taxi transportation services; and operates hotels, hot springs and spas, golf club and courses, ski resorts, tennis courts, bowling alleys, skating rinks, fitness clubs, and other leisure facilities. It also develops and sells detached houses, condominiums, and custom-built houses, and resort properties; leases office and residential facilities; and develops and operates stores in train stations, shopping malls, and other commercial facilities. In addition, the company maintains a professional baseball team under the Saitama Seibu Lions name; hosts concerts and other non-baseball events through Belluna Dome; and operates and manages amusement parks, aquariums, movie theaters, and pools. Further, it offers fire insurance, automobile insurance, travel insurance, and life insurance products; home and urban development services; pet care products; and builds cemeteries. Additionally, the company operates cram school for elementary school students; drive-in facilities; rest areas; toll roads; car and bicycle parking lots. Seibu Holdings Inc. was incorporated in 2006 and is headquartered in Toshima, Japan.
Stock analysis
Seibu Holdings Inc (SEIBF) currently trades at $17.90, while our model-based Fair Value estimate is $14.50, implying the stock looks roughly 23.4% overvalued today.
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Valuation
How firm this estimate is: it rests on 15 models at a data quality of 96/100, which puts the evidence level at high.
Scenario range: $11.63 (bear) to $18.49 (bull), the price of $17.90 sits inside it. Bear and bull are the same models on cautious and optimistic assumptions, a range, not a price target.
Quality & growth
The Quality Score stands at 30/100 (below-average quality), in the Industrials sector.
Expensive Growth: The company is growing, but growth may require heavy reinvestment or weak cash conversion.
Seibu Holdings Inc reported revenue of ¥517B in FY2026 versus ¥397B in FY2022, a compound +6.8%/yr. Reported net income was ¥39.1B in FY2026, compounding +38.5%/yr from FY2022. FY2022 was a trough year, so the rate overstates the trend.
Key figures
Market cap $4.6B · P/E ratio 19.2 · P/S ratio 1.46 · EPS (TTM) $0.9300 · Dividend yield 1.5% · Net margin 7.6% · Return on equity 6.9% · Return on assets (EBIT) 4.4%.
Competitive moat
Our AI-assisted moat analysis scores the competitive advantage at 38 out of 100 (low confidence).
What moves the price
The share trades about 46% below its 52-week high and 84% above its 52-week low, currently below its 200-day average.
For context, the median of 10 Industrials peers we cover trades at 38% fair-value upside, at −19%, SEIBF screens richer than that median.
Fair Value models
Bear $11.63Fair Value $14.50Bull $18.49
Model ⓘEach model values the company its own way (discounted cash flow, earnings, assets, dividends). The fair value above is their evidence-weighted blend, not the output of a single model.Bear ⓘBear = the cautious scenario: the same model computed with conservative anchors (lower growth, margins and valuation multiples). Together with Bull it frames a plausible valuation range, not a price target.BaseBull ⓘBull = the optimistic scenario: the same model computed with favourable anchors (higher growth, margins and valuation multiples). Together with Bear it frames a plausible valuation range, not a price target.Evidence ⓘEvidence = how well-backed THIS model's estimate is for this stock (0–100): how complete and reliable its input data are, and how well the model fits the company. The final Fair Value is an evidence-weighted blend, so better-evidenced models count more. Green ≥70, amber 50–69, grey below 50.
Growth Quality ⓘGrowth is valuable only when reinvestment earns attractive returns (Aswath Damodaran): sustainable growth depends on return on capital, reinvestment and efficiency. Basis: total company revenue over the periods shown on the cards (3Y/5Y/all years), not per share, so a merger can show up as a growth jump; per-share earnings growth is in the value-creation card.34/100
The company is growing, but growth may require heavy reinvestment or weak cash conversion.
Revenue growth 1 year
−42.7%
Revenue growth 3 years ⓘMeasures the company's TOTAL revenue from reported annual statements: compound average growth per year (CAGR) from the fiscal year 3, 5 or N years back to the most recent comparable fiscal year. Not per share: buybacks do not change this number, and a merger can appear as a growth jump. Per-share growth (which does include buybacks) is in the value-creation card.
+6.4%
Revenue growth 5 years ⓘMeasures the company's TOTAL revenue from reported annual statements: compound average growth per year (CAGR) from the fiscal year 3, 5 or N years back to the most recent comparable fiscal year. Not per share: buybacks do not change this number, and a merger can appear as a growth jump. Per-share growth (which does include buybacks) is in the value-creation card.
+8.9%
Start year 2021 (pandemic). Over 10 years: +0.2% a year
Revenue growth 18 years ⓘMeasures the company's TOTAL revenue from reported annual statements: compound average growth per year (CAGR) from the fiscal year 3, 5 or N years back to the most recent comparable fiscal year. Not per share: buybacks do not change this number, and a merger can appear as a growth jump. Per-share growth (which does include buybacks) is in the value-creation card.
−1.4%
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What shareholders gained per year (last 5 years), in JPY ⓘWhat the business itself delivers per year: earnings growth per share plus the dividend yield. This is what you get IF the market keeps valuing the stock the same way: it contains no assumption about the market changing its mind. Computed per share, so buybacks count and a merger does not pass as growth. For a company that pays no dividend it is pure earnings growth per share. Period: earnings growth per share as CAGR over the last 5 reported fiscal years (annual statements), plus the current dividend yield. The start value is the median of the three years around the start, so a single crisis year (a pandemic or a write-down) does not distort the rate. Measured in JPY: this currency has depreciated against the euro and dollar over the long run, so part of the nominal rate is currency erosion that never reaches a EUR/USD investor.
+44.6%
Earnings growth per share plus dividend.
Earnings per share, growth per year+43.1%
Dividend (yield on the price)1.5%
Pace: 5 vs 10 years ⓘTwo data points, not a trend model: earnings growth per share over the last 5 fiscal years against the last 10. Labelled "steady" when both rates are within 3 percentage points of each other, otherwise picking up or flattening. Shown only when ten years of history exist.43% vs 0%, picking up
Profit margin 2021 to 2026 ⓘOperating margin then vs now, from reported annual statements. A falling margin after a boom year is the classic peak-earnings signal: the growth rate then leans on an inflated base.−15% → 9%
Price, fair value, quality and upside side by side.
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Peer GroupⓘHow this stock ranks against its industry: the green marker is this stock, the band is the typical 25–75% peer range, and the tick is the median.Conglomerates · 378 stocks
Beats the industry median on 2/13 measures
Overall it trails its industry peers.
Valuation
Quality Score30 · Bottom 25%
Fair Value upside−19% · Below median
Profitability
Return on equity (TTM)7% · Above median
Return on assets2% · Below median
Net margin (TTM)8% · Above median
Operating margin (TTM)1% · Below median
Growth and dividend
Revenue growth−76% · Bottom 25%
Dividend yield (TTM)1.5% · Below median
Balance sheet
Debt / equity0.91× · Highest 25%
Valuation Multiplesvs Conglomerates median · lower = cheaper
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Is Seibu Holdings Inc (SEIBF) overvalued or undervalued?
As of Sep 24, 2026, our model estimates a fair value of $14.50 versus a price of $17.90, about −19% upside (overvalued).
What is the fair value of SEIBF?
Our model-based fair value for Seibu Holdings Inc is $14.50 (as of Sep 24, 2026), built from audited fundamentals. The current price: $17.90.
What is the quality score of SEIBF?
Seibu Holdings Inc has a Quality Score of 30/100. It measures business quality (profitability, growth, cash flow, balance-sheet strength, investment discipline, share issuance). Market factors such as price momentum and volatility do not enter the number; they are shown separately in the detail view.
What is the price target for Seibu Holdings Inc (SEIBF)?
Our model-based price target is the fair value of $14.50 (as of Sep 24, 2026) from 5 valuation models. Cautious scenario $11.63, optimistic scenario $18.49. It is a calculation from audited fundamentals, not an analyst target.
What is the Seibu Holdings Inc stock forecast for 2026?
Our models put fair value at $14.50, about −19% upside versus a price of $17.90 (overvalued). Cautious scenario $11.63, optimistic scenario $18.49. The calculation is refreshed regularly with new filings.
What is the revenue of Seibu Holdings Inc (SEIBF)?
Seibu Holdings Inc reported trailing-twelve-month revenue of about ¥513B (latest available figure, as of Sep 24, 2026).
Does Seibu Holdings Inc pay a dividend?
Seibu Holdings Inc currently shows a dividend yield of about 1.49% relative to its recent price (as of Sep 24, 2026).
What is the intrinsic value of Seibu Holdings Inc (SEIBF)?
Intrinsic value and fair value mean the same thing: what the business is worth on its numbers, independent of the share price. For Seibu Holdings Inc it is $14.50 per share (as of Sep 24, 2026), against a price of $17.90. It is the blended result of 5 valuation models (cash flow, earnings, asset, dividend).
Is Seibu Holdings Inc stock overvalued or undervalued in 2026?
As of Sep 24, 2026, SEIBF trades above its calculated fair value: price $17.90, fair value $14.50, a gap of about −19% (overvalued). The calculation is refreshed with each new quarterly report, so the verdict can change during the year.
Is fair value the same as the market price of SEIBF?
No. The price is what the market pays today ($17.90); the fair value is what the company's own numbers justify ($14.50). For Seibu Holdings Inc the two are $3.40 per share apart. That gap is exactly why we show both numbers side by side.
How much is Seibu Holdings Inc worth?
The market values Seibu Holdings Inc at about $4.6B (market capitalisation, as of Sep 24, 2026). Per share that is $17.90; our models calculate a fair value of $14.50 per share.
What do the bullish and bearish scenarios say about SEIBF?
Our models span a range for Seibu Holdings Inc: cautious scenario $11.63, base $14.50, optimistic $18.49 per share (as of Sep 24, 2026, price $17.90). The range comes from different growth and margin assumptions, not from analyst opinions.
What is the P/E ratio of SEIBF?
Seibu Holdings Inc trades at a price-to-earnings ratio of 19.2 (as of Sep 24, 2026). A P/E on its own says little: it compares the price with ONE year of profit, while our fair value of $14.50 is built from several models across several years. Other multiples: P/B 1.3, P/S 1.4, EV/EBITDA 11.5.
How solid is the balance sheet of Seibu Holdings Inc (SEIBF)?
Balance-sheet figures for Seibu Holdings Inc (as of Sep 24, 2026): return on equity 6.9%, debt of 0.91 per unit of equity. They feed the Quality Score of 30/100, which measures business quality independently of the share price.
How far is SEIBF from its 52-week high?
Seibu Holdings Inc trades at $17.90, about 46% below its 52-week high of $33.00 and 84% above the low of $9.72 (as of Sep 18, 2026). Distance from the high says nothing about value: that is what the fair value of $14.50 is for.
Which stocks are comparable to Seibu Holdings Inc?
From the same area (Industrials) we also value 3M Company, Honeywell International Inc, CITIC Limited, Poste Italiane S.p.A, among others. Each of them has its own fair-value calculation on this site using the same models, so the comparison is like for like.
Is Seibu Holdings Inc stock attractive at the current price?
The data as of Sep 24, 2026: price $17.90, calculated fair value $14.50 (−19%), Quality Score 30/100, from 5 models. Whether that fits your horizon and risk tolerance is your call. We provide the calculation, not investment advice.
How is the fair value of SEIBF calculated?
We run Seibu Holdings Inc through 5 models from four families: discounted cash flow, earnings models, asset and balance-sheet models, and dividend models. Every model gets the same audited fundamentals; the result is the weighted average of $14.50, with the spread shown as a cautious and an optimistic scenario.
Is it still worth investing in stocks now?
The global stock market currently sits 14.1 % above its aggregate fair value. Seibu Holdings Inc itself currently trades above fair value. An expensive market is no reason to stay out and no reason to buy everything at once: keep a broad savings plan running, buy single stocks only with money you can do without, and hold part of your money liquid while the market is high. The full picture including sectors is on is it worth investing now.
What is the share price of Seibu Holdings Inc (SEIBF)?
The closing price on Sep 18, 2026 was $17.90. Our model-based fair value is $14.50, about −19% upside (overvalued). We carry closing prices from our data provider, not a live tick.
What should I pay attention to with Seibu Holdings Inc right now?
Weak quality (30/100) and above fair value at the same time, the margin of safety is missing on both counts. The price sits in the upper half of our model range, so the margin of safety is thin. The data supports the verdict: every model runs on fully documented inputs.
Where does the earnings growth of Seibu Holdings Inc (SEIBF) come from?
Earnings per share at Seibu Holdings Inc grew +11.9 % a year from 2015 to 2026. Broken into its drivers: revenue per share +4.6 %, EBIT margin +6.2 %, tax rate −1.5 %, residual (interest, one-offs) +2.3 %. The four rates multiply to the earnings growth rate, they do not add up. Start and end are three-year averages so a single exceptional year does not distort the result.
Key figures of Seibu Holdings Inc
How large is the market capitalisation of Seibu Holdings Inc (SEIBF)?
The market capitalisation of Seibu Holdings Inc is $4.6B. The stock-market value of the whole company: share price times number of shares. It is what the market asks for the entire business today.
What is the P/S ratio of Seibu Holdings Inc (SEIBF)?
The price-to-sales ratio of Seibu Holdings Inc is 1.46 (P/E × margin). Price to sales: market value relative to yearly revenue. Useful when profit is thin or distorted.
What are the earnings per share of Seibu Holdings Inc (SEIBF)?
Earnings per share at Seibu Holdings Inc are $0.9300 (price ÷ EPS = P/E 19.2). Earnings per share over the last twelve months: total profit spread across every single share.
What is the dividend yield of Seibu Holdings Inc (SEIBF)?
The dividend yield of Seibu Holdings Inc is 1.5% (payout 28.7%). Yearly dividend relative to the share price. 3% pays 3 per 100 invested. Below: how much of profit is used for it.
What is the net margin of Seibu Holdings Inc (SEIBF)?
The net margin of Seibu Holdings Inc is 7.6% (fiscal year 2026). How much of every unit of revenue ends up as profit. 10% means 10 cents of profit per dollar of sales.
What is the return on equity of Seibu Holdings Inc (SEIBF)?
The return on equity (ROE) of Seibu Holdings Inc is 6.9% (last twelve months). Profit relative to shareholders' equity, how efficiently the company works with its owners' money.
What is the EBIT return on assets of Seibu Holdings Inc (SEIBF)?
On an EBIT basis the return on assets of Seibu Holdings Inc is 4.4% (avg 5y). Operating profit (EBIT) relative to everything the company owns, as a multi-year average. It describes the business model rather than one good or bad year.
What is the operating margin of Seibu Holdings Inc (SEIBF)?
The operating margin of Seibu Holdings Inc is 0.5% (last twelve months). Profit from the core business (before interest and taxes) relative to revenue.
How fast is revenue growing at Seibu Holdings Inc (SEIBF)?
Revenue at Seibu Holdings Inc is growing −76.0% versus a year earlier (3y avg +6.4%). How much revenue grew versus a year earlier (YoY). The 3-year average next to it puts the single year in context.
How fast are earnings growing at Seibu Holdings Inc (SEIBF)?
Earnings per share at Seibu Holdings Inc are growing −95.7% versus a year earlier. How much earnings per share grew versus a year earlier.
How much free cash flow does Seibu Holdings Inc (SEIBF) generate?
The free cash flow of Seibu Holdings Inc is −¥154B (fiscal year 2026). The cash truly left after running and investing in the business, this is what pays dividends and buybacks.
How much net debt does Seibu Holdings Inc (SEIBF) carry?
The net debt of Seibu Holdings Inc is ¥589B (fiscal year 2026). Debt minus cash on hand. The note shows how many years of free cash flow could in theory pay it off.
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Broad data
Sep 24, 2026