Sprouts Farmers Market Inc (SFM) fair value: what the stock is really worth
As of Nov 6, 2026: fair value (intrinsic value) of Sprouts Farmers Market Inc stock $109, price $49.10, upside +122.8%, quality 71 out of 100. Rating: strongly undervalued. Calculated from audited financials with 24 of our 26 valuation models and 37 quality factors, updated daily.
69 individual criteria per stock, every one traceableSee the method →
Price vs Fair Value
White line = price, green steps = our fair value per fiscal year. As of Nov 9, 2026.
How to read this chart
60‑month range $21.76 – $179.53 · fair‑value band $74.50 – $142.23 · the $49.10 price screens below the $109.41 fair value. Green steps = our fair value per fiscal year (point-in-time, no hindsight). As of Nov 9, 2026.
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Sprouts Farmers Market, Inc., together with its subsidiaries, engages in the retailing of fresh, natural, and organic food products in the United States. The company offers healthy grocery stores; and lifestyle-friendly ingredients such as organic, plant-based, keto, paleo, non-GMO, and gluten-free.
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The company also offers perishable product categories, including produce, meat and meat alternatives, seafood, deli, bakery, floral, and dairy alternatives; and non-perishable product categories, such as grocery, vitamins and supplements, bulk items, frozen foods, beer and wine, and natural health and body care.
It sells its products under the Sprouts brand. The company was founded in 1943 and is headquartered in Phoenix, Arizona.
Stock analysis
Sprouts Farmers Market Inc (SFM) currently trades at $49.10, while our model-based Fair Value estimate is $109.41, implying the stock looks roughly 55% undervalued today.
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Valuation
Bull case: the DCF Models group reads highest at a median of $128.54 per share, and 21 of the 24 models we run sit above the $49.10 price.
Bear case: the Economic Profit group reads lowest at $64.06, and 3 of the 24 models stay below the price. Data coverage for this calculation is medium.
Scenario range: $74.50 (bear) to $142.23 (bull), the price of $49.10 sits below it. Bear and bull are the same models on cautious and optimistic assumptions, a range, not a price target.
Quality & growth
The Quality Score stands at 71/100 (solid quality), in the Consumer Defensive sector.
Healthy Growth: Revenue growth appears healthy and is supported by profitability and cash-flow quality.
Sprouts Farmers Market Inc reported revenue of $8.8B in FY2025 versus $6.1B in FY2021, a compound +9.6%/yr. Reported net income was $524M in FY2025, compounding +21.0%/yr from FY2021.
Key figures
Market cap $5.8B Mid · P/E ratio 9.7 · P/S ratio 0.64 · EPS (TTM) $5.04 · Net margin 5.6% · Return on equity 35.2% · Return on assets (EBIT) 12.8% (5-year average) · Operating margin 7.5%.
Competitive moat
Our AI-assisted moat analysis scores the competitive advantage at 62 out of 100 (low confidence).
What moves the price
The share trades about 45% below its 52-week high and 2% above its 52-week low, currently below its 200-day average.
For context, the median of 10 Consumer Defensive peers we cover trades at −19% fair-value upside, at 123%, SFM screens cheaper than that median.
Fair Value models
Bear$74.50Fair Value $109.41Bull$142.23
Price $49.10 · Upside +122.8%
Model ⓘEach model values the company its own way (discounted cash flow, earnings, assets, dividends). The fair value above starts from their evidence-weighted blend, not from a single model. In cyclical trough or peak years, after dilution or a stock split it is adjusted afterwards, so it can sit above or below the models. Based on fiscal year 2025 figures (about 10 months old). Earnings retained since then ($4.32 per share) are deliberately not added.Bear ⓘBear = the cautious scenario: the same model computed with conservative anchors (lower growth, margins and valuation multiples). Together with Bull it frames a plausible valuation range, not a price target.BaseBull ⓘBull = the optimistic scenario: the same model computed with favourable anchors (higher growth, margins and valuation multiples). Together with Bear it frames a plausible valuation range, not a price target. If a model's bull case is above four times its base value, the table shows that limit with a > sign (like the overall Bull above): beyond it no assumption holds.Coverage ⓘCoverage = how well-backed THIS model's estimate is for this stock (0–100): how complete and reliable its input data are, and how well the model fits the company. The final Fair Value is an evidence-weighted blend, so better-evidenced models count more. Green ≥70, amber 50–69, grey below 50.
In the last 6 months, 4 officers or directors sold shares worth $11.2M and none bought.
SaleJack SinclairChief Executive Officer, Director10× since Mar 13, 2026: 196,109 shares, avg. $77.83$15.3MNov 5, 2026
SaleDustin HamiltonChief Stores Officer4× since Mar 13, 2026: 1,845 shares, avg. $82.32$151,878Sep 8, 2026
SaleJoseph D O'LearyDirector2,597 shares at $82.57$214,434Aug 14, 2026
SaleNicholas KonatPresident & COO5× since Mar 13, 2026: 24,483 shares, avg. $84.60$2.1MJun 11, 2026
SaleBrandon F. LombardiChief Legal Officer5× since Mar 13, 2026: 18,324 shares, avg. $81.51$1.5MMay 1, 2026
SaleTimmi ZalatorisChief Human Resources Officer4× since Mar 13, 2026: 14,914 shares, avg. $82.97$1.2MMar 23, 2026
SaleStacy W. HilgendorfVP, Controller3× since Mar 13, 2026: 810 shares, avg. $83.03$67,252Mar 20, 2026
SaleDavid McGlincheyChief Development Officer4× since Mar 13, 2026: 5,952 shares, avg. $81.16$483,086Mar 20, 2026
SaleKim CoffinSVP, Chief Forager4× since Mar 13, 2026: 4,755 shares, avg. $81.23$386,236Mar 20, 2026
SaleJoseph L HurleyChief Supply Chain Officer4× since Mar 13, 2026: 4,908 shares, avg. $81.21$398,589Mar 20, 2026
Plus 6 more entries from the last 12 months.
Plus 7 other filings such as grants, option exercises or tax withholding. They are not market purchases or sales.
Sales are often planned (taxes, diversification, 10b5-1 plans). Purchases with their own money are seen as the stronger sign. For information only: not part of the quality score or Fair Value.
Growth Quality ⓘGrowth is valuable only when reinvestment earns attractive returns (Aswath Damodaran): sustainable growth depends on return on capital, reinvestment and efficiency. Basis: total company revenue over the periods shown on the cards (3Y/5Y/all years), not per share, so a merger can show up as a growth jump; per-share earnings growth is in the value-creation card.72/100
Revenue growth appears healthy and is supported by profitability and cash-flow quality.
Revenue growth 1 year
+14.1%
Revenue growth 3 years ⓘMeasures the company's TOTAL revenue from reported annual statements: compound average growth per year (CAGR) from the fiscal year 3, 5 or N years back to the most recent comparable fiscal year. Not per share: buybacks do not change this number, and a merger can appear as a growth jump. Per-share growth (which does include buybacks) is in the value-creation card.
+11.2%
Revenue growth 5 years ⓘMeasures the company's TOTAL revenue from reported annual statements: compound average growth per year (CAGR) from the fiscal year 3, 5 or N years back to the most recent comparable fiscal year. Not per share: buybacks do not change this number, and a merger can appear as a growth jump. Per-share growth (which does include buybacks) is in the value-creation card.
+6.4%
Start year 2020 (pandemic). Over 10 years: +9.4% a year
Revenue growth 15 years ⓘMeasures the company's TOTAL revenue from reported annual statements: compound average growth per year (CAGR) from the fiscal year 3, 5 or N years back to the most recent comparable fiscal year. Not per share: buybacks do not change this number, and a merger can appear as a growth jump. Per-share growth (which does include buybacks) is in the value-creation card.
+20.8%
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What shareholders gained per year (last 5 years) (mathematically smoothed) ⓘWhat the business itself delivers per year: earnings growth per share plus the dividend yield. This is what you get IF the market keeps valuing the stock the same way: it contains no assumption about the market changing its mind. Computed per share, so buybacks count and a merger does not pass as growth. For a company that pays no dividend it is pure earnings growth per share. Period: earnings growth per share as CAGR over the last 5 reported fiscal years (annual statements), plus the current dividend yield. The start value is the median of the three years around the start, so a single crisis year (a pandemic or a write-down) does not distort the rate. Smoothed = median of all growth paths between the years of the window (trend line on the logarithm of earnings per share): a single extreme year cannot distort the rate. The reported figure stays in the tooltip.
+16.9%
Earnings growth per share plus dividend.
Earnings per share, growth per year+16.9%
Dividend (yield on the price)0.0%
Pace: 5 vs 10 years ⓘTwo data points, not a trend model: earnings growth per share over the last 5 fiscal years against the last 10. Labelled "steady" when both rates are within 3 percentage points of each other, otherwise picking up or flattening. Shown only when ten years of history exist.20.3% vs 20.4%, steady
Profit margin 2020 to 2025 ⓘOperating margin then vs now, from reported annual statements. A falling margin after a boom year is the classic peak-earnings signal: the growth rate then leans on an inflated base.6% → 8%
2025 sits 112% above its own trend. The rate follows the median trend of the last 5 years, not that single year.
Pace: the 5-year rate starts in 2020 (pandemic)
Growth Forecast
Little optimism in the price
The price assumes less growth than the company has delivered so far and less than analysts expect.
What the price assumes ⓘThis turns our valuation around: instead of asking what the share is worth, it asks what growth the current price requires. It uses the cash the company keeps after all spending (free cash flow), the same discount rate as our models, five years of growth, then slowing evenly to 2 % a year by year ten. Compared with the analysts' sales forecasts extended to the same five years (at least three analysts, for context only, it does not enter the Fair Value): within 3 percentage points counts as "in line" (amber), below that little optimism (green), above that a lot of optimism (red).
−3.7%
The company could shrink this much every year for the next five years and today's price would still be justified.
What forecasts expect ⓘAnalysts publish sales forecasts for the next two fiscal years. For the years after that, growth slows evenly to 2 % a year by year ten (2 % is the long-run rate our models use). Projected years are marked as such.
+6.6%
Yearly sales growth analysts expect, extended to five years.
After inflation (USA: IMF forecast 2.4% a year to 2030, 3.1% from 2016 to 2025) that is about −6.0% a year for the price and +4.2% for the forecasts.
News mood ⓘNews mood, the average tone of recent news (99 articles), rated against how stocks are usually covered. 🚀 Hype = unusually upbeat · 🙂 Positive = above average · 😐 Neutral = typical · 🙁 Negative = below average · 😨 Very negative = unusually downbeat. It reflects the tone of coverage, not our valuation.Hype
Recent news coverage is unusually upbeat, far more positive than stocks are typically covered.
AI conclusion: The business shows moderate moat potential from its returns profile in the grocery sector, but intense competition challenges the sustainability of its advantages.
Main risk: Intensifying competition from discount grocers such as Aldi and Trader Joe's as well as Whole Foods might squeeze margins on fresh and natural products by pressuring prices.
Bull case: By expanding self-distribution and using loyalty data for personalization Sprouts could enhance its differentiated fresh offerings and counter rival pressure on value.
Bear case: If competition from discount chains persists and supplier dependence leads to disruptions Sprouts might suffer ongoing traffic losses and margin compression in its niche.
Sprouts keeps expanding with dozens of new stores and a focus on fresh natural products even as same-store visits fell sharply in the second quarter. Early data now point to stabilization in July and August after that drop. Our models see the shares as undervalued, yet will the traffic rebound prove lasting or will ongoing consumer caution extend the pressure on comparable sales?
Compare Sprouts Farmers Market Inc with another stock
Price, fair value, quality and upside side by side.
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Peer GroupⓘHow this stock ranks against its industry: the green marker is this stock, the band is the typical 25–75% peer range, and the tick is the median.Grocery Stores · 74 stocks
Beats the industry median on 12/14 measures
Overall it ranks above its industry peers.
Valuation
Quality Score71 · Top 25%
Fair Value upside+122.8% · Top 25%
Profitability
Return on equity (12 months)35.2% · Top 25%
Return on assets12.6% · Top 25%
Net margin (12 months)5.6% · Top 25%
Operating margin (12 months)7.5% · Top 25%
Growth and dividend
Revenue growth (quarter YoY)4.7% · Above median
Balance sheet
Debt / equity0.09× · Below median
Valuation Multiplesvs Grocery Stores median · lower = cheaper
P/E (12 months)9.7× · Cheapest 25%
P/B4.12× · Priciest 25%
P/S (12 months)0.64× · Pricier than median
Price / free cash flow (fiscal year)12.4× · Cheaper than median
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Is Sprouts Farmers Market Inc (SFM) overvalued or undervalued?
As of Nov 9, 2026, our model estimates a fair value of $109.41 versus a price of $49.10, about +123% upside (undervalued).
What is the fair value of SFM?
Our model-based fair value for Sprouts Farmers Market Inc is $109.41 (as of Nov 9, 2026), built from audited fundamentals. The current price: $49.10.
What is the quality score of SFM?
Sprouts Farmers Market Inc has a Quality Score of 71/100. It measures business quality (profitability, growth, cash flow, balance-sheet strength, investment discipline, share issuance). Market factors such as price momentum and volatility do not enter the number; they are shown separately in the detail view.
What is the price target for Sprouts Farmers Market Inc (SFM)?
Our model-based price target is the fair value of $109.41 (as of Nov 9, 2026) from 24 valuation models. Cautious scenario $74.50, optimistic scenario $142.23. It is a calculation from audited fundamentals, not an analyst target.
What is the Sprouts Farmers Market Inc stock forecast for 2026?
Our models put fair value at $109.41, about +123% upside versus a price of $49.10 (undervalued). Cautious scenario $74.50, optimistic scenario $142.23. The calculation is refreshed regularly with new filings.
What is the revenue of Sprouts Farmers Market Inc (SFM)?
Sprouts Farmers Market Inc reported trailing-twelve-month revenue of about $9.0B (latest available figure, as of Nov 9, 2026).
What growth is priced into Sprouts Farmers Market Inc (SFM)?
For today's price to be fair in a discounted-cash-flow model, Sprouts Farmers Market Inc would have to grow free cash flow by -3.7 % per year for five years (discount rate 8.9 %, then slowing evenly to 2 % perpetual growth by year ten). Over the last 5 years revenue grew +6.4 % per year. As of Nov 9, 2026.
What discount rate (WACC) does the fair value of SFM use?
Our models discount Sprouts Farmers Market Inc at 8.9 %: a base by market capitalisation (mid), damped by beta 0.67, country premium for USA. The same rate applies in all 26 models.
What is a reverse DCF?
A reverse DCF turns the usual calculation around. Instead of deriving a value from assumptions, it takes today's price as given and asks: what free-cash-flow growth would a company have to deliver for exactly this price to be fair? The result is not a forecast but the expectation already priced in. For Sprouts Farmers Market Inc that is -3.7 % per year for five years, then slowing evenly to 2 % by year ten, using the same discount rate (8.9 %) and the same formula as our fair value.
How much growth has Sprouts Farmers Market Inc (SFM) delivered so far?
Over the past 5 years revenue at Sprouts Farmers Market Inc grew +6.4 % a year. The price currently implies free-cash-flow growth of -3.7 % per year. Comparing the two shows how much confidence is in the price: if it demands more than has been delivered, the business has to accelerate for the maths to work.
How fast is the sector of Sprouts Farmers Market Inc (SFM) growing?
The median revenue growth in the sector is +3.6 % a year. That is the yardstick for the growth priced into Sprouts Farmers Market Inc (-3.7 % per year): it shows whether the expectation is within the usual range or beyond it.
What is the free cash flow yield of Sprouts Farmers Market Inc (SFM)?
The free-cash-flow yield on the price is 10.09 %: that much free cash flow Sprouts Farmers Market Inc produces per unit of market value. When it exceeds the discount rate of our models (8.9 %), the business already earns more than its cost of capital demands, and the price needs little additional growth.
What is the intrinsic value of Sprouts Farmers Market Inc (SFM)?
Intrinsic value and fair value mean the same thing: what the business is worth on its numbers, independent of the share price. For Sprouts Farmers Market Inc it is $109.41 per share (as of Nov 9, 2026), against a price of $49.10. It is the blended result of 24 valuation models in 7 families (DCF Models, Earnings-Based, Multiples, Asset-Based, Growth DCF, Economic Profit, Growth Earnings).
Is Sprouts Farmers Market Inc stock overvalued or undervalued in 2026?
As of Nov 9, 2026, SFM trades below its calculated fair value: price $49.10, fair value $109.41, a gap of about +123% (undervalued). The calculation is refreshed with each new quarterly report, so the verdict can change during the year.
Is fair value the same as the market price of SFM?
No. The price is what the market pays today ($49.10); the fair value is what the company's own numbers justify ($109.41). For Sprouts Farmers Market Inc the two are $60.31 per share apart. That gap is exactly why we show both numbers side by side.
How much is Sprouts Farmers Market Inc worth?
The market values Sprouts Farmers Market Inc at about $5.8B (market capitalisation, as of Nov 9, 2026). Per share that is $49.10; our models calculate a fair value of $109.41 per share.
What do the bullish and bearish scenarios say about SFM?
Our models span a range for Sprouts Farmers Market Inc: cautious scenario $74.50, base $109.41, optimistic $142.23 per share (as of Nov 9, 2026, price $49.10). The range comes from different growth and margin assumptions, not from analyst opinions.
What is the P/E ratio of SFM?
Sprouts Farmers Market Inc trades at a price-to-earnings ratio of 9.7 (as of Nov 9, 2026). A P/E on its own says little: it compares the price with ONE year of profit, while our fair value of $109.41 is built from several models across several years. Median P/E at fiscal year-end, 10 fiscal years (2016 to 2025), reported earnings, 4 of the years ex one-offs: 16.4. Other multiples: PEG 1.4, P/B 4.1, P/S 0.6, EV/EBITDA 6.7.
What is the PEG ratio of SFM?
The PEG ratio of Sprouts Farmers Market Inc is 1.39 (P/E divided by earnings growth, as of Nov 9, 2026). That is above 1, so the growth is already paid for in the price.
How solid is the balance sheet of Sprouts Farmers Market Inc (SFM)?
Balance-sheet figures for Sprouts Farmers Market Inc (as of Nov 9, 2026): return on equity 35.2%, debt of 0.09 per unit of equity. They feed the Quality Score of 71/100, which measures business quality independently of the share price.
How far is SFM from its 52-week high?
Sprouts Farmers Market Inc trades at $49.10, about 45% below its 52-week high of $90.02 and 2% above the low of $48.00 (as of Nov 6, 2026). Distance from the high says nothing about value: that is what the fair value of $109.41 is for.
Which stocks are comparable to Sprouts Farmers Market Inc?
From the same area (Consumer Defensive) we also value Loblaw Companies Limited, The Kroger Co, Woolworths Group, Koninklijke Ahold Delhaize N.V, among others. Each of them has its own fair-value calculation on this site using the same models, so the comparison is like for like.
Is Sprouts Farmers Market Inc stock attractive at the current price?
The data as of Nov 9, 2026: price $49.10, calculated fair value $109.41 (+123%), Quality Score 71/100, from 24 models. Whether that fits your horizon and risk tolerance is your call. We provide the calculation, not investment advice.
How is the fair value of SFM calculated?
We run Sprouts Farmers Market Inc through 24 models from 7 families: DCF Models, Earnings-Based, Multiples, Asset-Based, Growth DCF, Economic Profit, Growth Earnings. Every model gets the same audited fundamentals; the fair value of $109.41 builds on their evidence-weighted average, with the spread shown as a cautious and an optimistic scenario.
Is it still worth investing in stocks now?
The global stock market currently sits 13.3% above its aggregate fair value. Sprouts Farmers Market Inc currently trades 55% below its own fair value, and the market average says nothing about that. An expensive market is no reason to stay out and no reason to buy everything at once: keep a broad savings plan running, buy single stocks only with money you can do without, and hold part of your money liquid while the market is high. The full picture including sectors is on is it worth investing now.
What is the share price of Sprouts Farmers Market Inc (SFM)?
The closing price on Nov 6, 2026 was $49.10. Our model-based fair value is $109.41, about +123% upside (undervalued). We carry closing prices from our data provider, not a live tick.
What should I pay attention to with Sprouts Farmers Market Inc right now?
The price is below even our cautious bear case ($74.50). The market is more pessimistic than our downside scenario. Solid quality (71/100) at a price below fair value, the discount is the argument here, not the business quality. A fairly wide model range ($74.50 to $142.23) leaves room in how you read the outcome.
Where does the earnings growth of Sprouts Farmers Market Inc (SFM) come from?
Earnings per share at Sprouts Farmers Market Inc grew +19.3 % a year from 2014 to 2025. Broken into its drivers: revenue per share +14.3 %, EBIT margin +1.0 %, tax rate +2.2 %, residual (interest, one-offs) +1.1 %. The four rates multiply to the earnings growth rate, they do not add up. Start and end are three-year averages so a single exceptional year does not distort the result.
Key figures of Sprouts Farmers Market Inc
How large is the market capitalisation of Sprouts Farmers Market Inc (SFM)?
The market capitalisation of Sprouts Farmers Market Inc is $5.8B. The stock-market value of the whole company: share price times number of shares. It is what the market asks for the entire business today.
What is the P/S ratio of Sprouts Farmers Market Inc (SFM)?
The price-to-sales ratio of Sprouts Farmers Market Inc is 0.64 (last twelve months). Price to sales: market value relative to yearly revenue. Useful when profit is thin or distorted.
What are the earnings per share of Sprouts Farmers Market Inc (SFM)?
Earnings per share at Sprouts Farmers Market Inc are $5.04 (price ÷ EPS = P/E 9.7). Earnings per share over the last twelve months: total profit spread across every single share.
What is the net margin of Sprouts Farmers Market Inc (SFM)?
The net margin of Sprouts Farmers Market Inc is 5.6% (last twelve months). How much of every unit of revenue ends up as profit. 10% means 10 cents of profit per dollar of sales.
What is the return on equity of Sprouts Farmers Market Inc (SFM)?
The return on equity (ROE) of Sprouts Farmers Market Inc is 35.2% (last twelve months). Profit relative to shareholders' equity, how efficiently the company works with its owners' money.
What is the EBIT return on assets of Sprouts Farmers Market Inc (SFM)?
On an EBIT basis the return on assets of Sprouts Farmers Market Inc is 12.8% (avg 5y). Operating profit (EBIT) relative to everything the company owns, as a multi-year average. It describes the business model rather than one good or bad year.
What is the operating margin of Sprouts Farmers Market Inc (SFM)?
The operating margin of Sprouts Farmers Market Inc is 7.5% (last twelve months). Profit from the core business (before interest and taxes) relative to revenue.
How fast is revenue growing at Sprouts Farmers Market Inc (SFM)?
Revenue at Sprouts Farmers Market Inc is growing +4.7% versus a year earlier (3y avg +11.2%). How much revenue grew versus a year earlier (YoY). The 3-year average next to it puts the single year in context.
How fast are earnings growing at Sprouts Farmers Market Inc (SFM)?
Earnings per share at Sprouts Farmers Market Inc are growing +1.5% versus a year earlier. How much earnings per share grew versus a year earlier.
How much net debt does Sprouts Farmers Market Inc (SFM) carry?
The net debt of Sprouts Farmers Market Inc is $1.7B (fiscal year 2025, ≈ 3.6 yrs of FCF). Debt minus cash on hand. The note shows how many years of free cash flow could in theory pay it off.
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Some data
Nov 9, 2026