Shionogi & Co Ltd (SGIOY) fair value: what the stock is really worth
As of Oct 22, 2026: fair value (intrinsic value) of Shionogi & Co Ltd stock $10.99, price $9.61, upside +14.4%, quality 63 out of 100. Rating: undervalued. Calculated from audited financials with 26 valuation models and 37 quality factors, updated daily.
69 individual criteria per stock, every one traceableSee the method →
Price vs Fair Value
White line = price, green steps = our fair value per fiscal year, dashed = 300-day average. As of Oct 23, 2026.
How to read this chart
60‑month range $5.89 – $11.48 · fair‑value band $8.27 – $13.72 · the $9.61 price screens below the $10.99 fair value. Green steps = our fair value per fiscal year (point-in-time, no hindsight). Dashed = 300-day average. As of Oct 23, 2026.
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Shionogi & Co., Ltd. engages in the research, development, manufacture, and distribution of pharmaceuticals, diagnostic reagents, and medical devices in Japan and internationally.
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It is also involved in consumer healthcare business; manufacturing, sale, analytical testing, and pharmaceutical engineering of medicinal drugs and investigational drugs; contracted monitoring of epidemiological components in sewage; promotion of implementation in social infrastructure; and business related to providing data and information; develops and sells foothold; and research and development of mucosal vaccines.
In addition, the company provides contract support services for experimental research; contract testing of agricultural production materials; solutions for education and healthcare, system development, human resource development, and training business; marketing support services; and IT services for medical and healthcare-related issues.
The company was formerly known as Shionogi Shoten Co., Ltd. and changed its name to Shionogi & Co., Ltd. in 1943. The company was founded in 1878 and is headquartered in Kita, Japan.
Stock analysis
Shionogi & Co Ltd (SGIOY) currently trades at $9.61, while our model-based Fair Value estimate is $10.99, implying the stock looks roughly 12.6% undervalued today.
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Valuation
Bull case: the Growth Earnings group reads highest at a median of $14.34 per share, and 17 of the 25 models we run sit above the $9.61 price.
Bear case: the Asset-Based group reads lowest at $1.57, and 8 of the 25 models stay below the price. Data coverage for this calculation is high.
Scenario range: $8.27 (bear) to $13.72 (bull), the price of $9.61 sits inside it. Bear and bull are the same models on cautious and optimistic assumptions, a range, not a price target.
Quality & growth
The Quality Score stands at 63/100 (solid quality), in the Healthcare sector.
Healthy Growth: Revenue growth appears healthy and is supported by profitability and cash-flow quality.
Shionogi & Co Ltd ADR reported revenue of ¥530B in FY2026 versus ¥335B in FY2022, a compound +12.1%/yr. Reported net income was ¥218B in FY2026, compounding +17.5%/yr from FY2022.
Key figures
Market cap $16.4B Large · P/E ratio 9.6 · P/S ratio 3.95 · EPS (TTM) $1.00 · Dividend yield 2.4% · Net margin 41.1% · Return on equity 16.8% · Return on assets (EBIT) 10.2%.
Competitive moat
Our AI-assisted moat analysis scores the competitive advantage at 63 out of 100 (medium confidence).
What moves the price
The share trades about 16% below its 52-week high and 24% above its 52-week low, currently above its 200-day average.
For context, the median of 10 Healthcare peers we cover trades at −23% fair-value upside, at 14%, SGIOY screens cheaper than that median.
Fair Value models
Bear$8.27Fair Value $10.99Bull$13.72
Price $9.61 · Upside +14.4%
Model ⓘEach model values the company its own way (discounted cash flow, earnings, assets, dividends). The fair value above starts from their evidence-weighted blend, not from a single model. In cyclical trough or peak years, after dilution or a stock split it is adjusted afterwards, so it can sit above or below the models. Based on fiscal year 2026 figures (about 7 months old). Earnings retained since then ($0.5644 per share) are deliberately not added.Bear ⓘBear = the cautious scenario: the same model computed with conservative anchors (lower growth, margins and valuation multiples). Together with Bull it frames a plausible valuation range, not a price target.BaseBull ⓘBull = the optimistic scenario: the same model computed with favourable anchors (higher growth, margins and valuation multiples). Together with Bear it frames a plausible valuation range, not a price target. If a model's bull case is above four times its base value, the table shows that limit with a > sign (like the overall Bull above): beyond it no assumption holds.Coverage ⓘCoverage = how well-backed THIS model's estimate is for this stock (0–100): how complete and reliable its input data are, and how well the model fits the company. The final Fair Value is an evidence-weighted blend, so better-evidenced models count more. Green ≥70, amber 50–69, grey below 50.
Growth Quality ⓘGrowth is valuable only when reinvestment earns attractive returns (Aswath Damodaran): sustainable growth depends on return on capital, reinvestment and efficiency. Basis: total company revenue over the periods shown on the cards (3Y/5Y/all years), not per share, so a merger can show up as a growth jump; per-share earnings growth is in the value-creation card.96/100
Revenue growth appears healthy and is supported by profitability and cash-flow quality.
Revenue growth 1 year
+20.9%
Revenue growth 3 years ⓘMeasures the company's TOTAL revenue from reported annual statements: compound average growth per year (CAGR) from the fiscal year 3, 5 or N years back to the most recent comparable fiscal year. Not per share: buybacks do not change this number, and a merger can appear as a growth jump. Per-share growth (which does include buybacks) is in the value-creation card.
+7.5%
Revenue growth 5 years ⓘMeasures the company's TOTAL revenue from reported annual statements: compound average growth per year (CAGR) from the fiscal year 3, 5 or N years back to the most recent comparable fiscal year. Not per share: buybacks do not change this number, and a merger can appear as a growth jump. Per-share growth (which does include buybacks) is in the value-creation card.
+12.3%
Start year 2021 (pandemic). Over 10 years: +5.5% a year
Revenue growth 28 years ⓘMeasures the company's TOTAL revenue from reported annual statements: compound average growth per year (CAGR) from the fiscal year 3, 5 or N years back to the most recent comparable fiscal year. Not per share: buybacks do not change this number, and a merger can appear as a growth jump. Per-share growth (which does include buybacks) is in the value-creation card.
+1.5%
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What shareholders gained per year (last 5 years), in JPY ⓘWhat the business itself delivers per year: earnings growth per share plus the dividend yield. This is what you get IF the market keeps valuing the stock the same way: it contains no assumption about the market changing its mind. Computed per share, so buybacks count and a merger does not pass as growth. For a company that pays no dividend it is pure earnings growth per share. Period: earnings growth per share as CAGR over the last 5 reported fiscal years (annual statements), plus the current dividend yield. The start value is the median of the three years around the start, so a single crisis year (a pandemic or a write-down) does not distort the rate. Measured in JPY: this currency has depreciated against the euro and dollar over the long run, so part of the nominal rate is currency erosion that never reaches a EUR/USD investor.
+17.6%
Earnings growth per share plus dividend.
Earnings per share, growth per year+15.2%
Dividend (yield on the price)2.4%
Pace: 5 vs 10 years ⓘTwo data points, not a trend model: earnings growth per share over the last 5 fiscal years against the last 10. Labelled "steady" when both rates are within 3 percentage points of each other, otherwise picking up or flattening. Shown only when ten years of history exist.15.2% vs 14.3%, steady
Profit margin 2021 to 2026 ⓘOperating margin then vs now, from reported annual statements. A falling margin after a boom year is the classic peak-earnings signal: the growth rate then leans on an inflated base.40% → 32%
Pace: the 5-year rate starts in 2021 (pandemic)
Growth Forecast
Little optimism in the price
The price assumes less growth than the company has delivered so far and less than analysts expect.
What the price assumes ⓘThis turns our valuation around: instead of asking what the share is worth, it asks what growth the current price requires. It uses the cash the company keeps after all spending (free cash flow), the same discount rate as our models, five years of growth, then slowing evenly to 2 % a year by year ten. Compared with the analysts' sales forecasts extended to the same five years (at least three analysts, for context only, it does not enter the Fair Value): within 3 percentage points counts as "in line" (amber), below that little optimism (green), above that a lot of optimism (red).
−3.9%
The company could shrink this much every year for the next five years and today's price would still be justified.
What forecasts expect ⓘAnalysts publish sales forecasts for the next two fiscal years. For the years after that, growth slows evenly to 2 % a year by year ten (2 % is the long-run rate our models use). Projected years are marked as such.
+9.5%
Yearly sales growth analysts expect, extended to five years.
After inflation (figures in JPY, Japan: IMF forecast 2.1% a year to 2030, 1.3% from 2016 to 2025) that is about −5.9% a year for the price and +7.2% for the forecasts.
News mood ⓘNews mood, the average tone of recent news (82 articles), rated against how stocks are usually covered. 🚀 Hype = unusually upbeat · 🙂 Positive = above average · 😐 Neutral = typical · 🙁 Negative = below average · 😨 Very negative = unusually downbeat. It reflects the tone of coverage, not our valuation.Positive
Recent news coverage is more positive than average.
AI conclusion: High margins and solid cash flow support specialty pharma positioning, yet scant evidence of brand scale or switching costs limits moat visibility while high absolute debt adds pressure.
Main risk: Stretching resources across infectious disease legacy plus new rare disease and ALS fronts risks delaying focused expansion and pressuring cash generation.
Shionogi is expanding its rare disease efforts by acquiring IntraBio and its approved therapy for Niemann-Pick disease type C plus ataxia-telangiectasia, following the earlier ALS drug addition. This shifts focus from its long-standing infectious disease base toward higher-value specialty areas. Our models currently see it as undervalued. Will the new capabilities drive sustainable expansion or stretch resources across too many therapeutic fronts?
Price, fair value, quality and upside side by side.
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Peer GroupⓘHow this stock ranks against its industry: the green marker is this stock, the band is the typical 25–75% peer range, and the tick is the median.Drug Manufacturers - Specialty & Generic · 575 stocks
Beats the industry median on 12/13 measures
Overall it ranks above its industry peers.
Valuation
Quality Score63 · Above median
Fair Value upside+13.5% · Above median
Profitability
Return on equity (12 months)16.8% · Top 25%
Return on assets8.4% · Top 25%
Net margin (12 months)46.8% · Top 25%
Operating margin (12 months)11.4% · Above median
Growth and dividend
Revenue growth (quarter YoY)63.7% · Top 25%
Dividend yield (12 months)2.4% · Above median
Valuation Multiplesvs Drug Manufacturers - Specialty & Generic median · lower = cheaper
For bloggers, editors and developers: paste this into your site or blog (a “Custom HTML” block in WordPress), it shows the current fair value and links back here. Free, plain HTML, and welcome. Full data streams (CSV/JSON) at /developers.
Cite: Fair Value Calculator (2026). "Shionogi & Co Ltd ADR Fair Value". https://www.fairvalue-calculator.com/stock/SGIOY
Frequently asked questions
Is Shionogi & Co Ltd (SGIOY) overvalued or undervalued?
As of Oct 23, 2026, our model estimates a fair value of $10.99 versus a price of $9.61, about +14% upside (undervalued).
What is the fair value of SGIOY?
Our model-based fair value for Shionogi & Co Ltd ADR is $10.99 (as of Oct 23, 2026), built from audited fundamentals. The current price: $9.61.
What is the quality score of SGIOY?
Shionogi & Co Ltd ADR has a Quality Score of 63/100. It measures business quality (profitability, growth, cash flow, balance-sheet strength, investment discipline, share issuance). Market factors such as price momentum and volatility do not enter the number; they are shown separately in the detail view.
What is the price target for Shionogi & Co Ltd (SGIOY)?
Our model-based price target is the fair value of $10.99 (as of Oct 23, 2026) from 25 valuation models. Cautious scenario $8.27, optimistic scenario $13.72. It is a calculation from audited fundamentals, not an analyst target.
What is the Shionogi & Co Ltd ADR stock forecast for 2026?
Our models put fair value at $10.99, about +14% upside versus a price of $9.61 (undervalued). Cautious scenario $8.27, optimistic scenario $13.72. The calculation is refreshed regularly with new filings.
What is the revenue of Shionogi & Co Ltd (SGIOY)?
Shionogi & Co Ltd ADR reported trailing-twelve-month revenue of about ¥563B (latest available figure, as of Oct 23, 2026).
Does Shionogi & Co Ltd ADR pay a dividend?
Shionogi & Co Ltd ADR currently shows a dividend yield of 2.36% relative to its recent price (as of Oct 23, 2026).
What growth is priced into Shionogi & Co Ltd (SGIOY)?
For today's price to be fair in a discounted-cash-flow model, Shionogi & Co Ltd ADR would have to grow free cash flow by -3.9 % per year for five years (discount rate 8.1 %, then slowing evenly to 2 % perpetual growth by year ten). Over the last 5 years revenue grew +12.3 % per year. As of Oct 23, 2026.
What discount rate (WACC) does the fair value of SGIOY use?
Our models discount Shionogi & Co Ltd ADR at 8.1 %: a base by market capitalisation (large), damped by beta 0.07, country premium for USA. The same rate applies in all 26 models.
What is a reverse DCF?
A reverse DCF turns the usual calculation around. Instead of deriving a value from assumptions, it takes today's price as given and asks: what free-cash-flow growth would a company have to deliver for exactly this price to be fair? The result is not a forecast but the expectation already priced in. For Shionogi & Co Ltd ADR that is -3.9 % per year a year over ten years, using the same discount rate (8.1 %) and the same formula as our fair value.
How much growth has Shionogi & Co Ltd (SGIOY) delivered so far?
Over the past 5 years revenue at Shionogi & Co Ltd ADR grew +12.3 % a year. The price currently implies -3.9 % per year free-cash-flow growth a year. Comparing the two shows how much confidence is in the price: if it demands more than has been delivered, the business has to accelerate for the maths to work.
How fast is the sector of Shionogi & Co Ltd (SGIOY) growing?
The median revenue growth in the sector is +5.6 % a year. That is the yardstick for the growth priced into Shionogi & Co Ltd ADR (-3.9 % per year a year): it shows whether the expectation is within the usual range or beyond it.
What is the free cash flow yield of Shionogi & Co Ltd (SGIOY)?
The free-cash-flow yield on the price is 8.23 %: that much free cash flow Shionogi & Co Ltd ADR produces per unit of market value. When it exceeds the discount rate of our models (8.1 %), the business already earns more than its cost of capital demands, and the price needs little additional growth.
What is the intrinsic value of Shionogi & Co Ltd (SGIOY)?
Intrinsic value and fair value mean the same thing: what the business is worth on its numbers, independent of the share price. For Shionogi & Co Ltd ADR it is $10.99 per share (as of Oct 23, 2026), against a price of $9.61. It is the blended result of 25 valuation models (cash flow, earnings, asset, dividend).
Is Shionogi & Co Ltd ADR stock overvalued or undervalued in 2026?
As of Oct 23, 2026, SGIOY trades below its calculated fair value: price $9.61, fair value $10.99, a gap of about +14% (undervalued). The calculation is refreshed with each new quarterly report, so the verdict can change during the year.
Is fair value the same as the market price of SGIOY?
No. The price is what the market pays today ($9.61); the fair value is what the company's own numbers justify ($10.99). For Shionogi & Co Ltd ADR the two are $1.38 per share apart. That gap is exactly why we show both numbers side by side.
How much is Shionogi & Co Ltd ADR worth?
The market values Shionogi & Co Ltd ADR at about $16.4B (market capitalisation, as of Oct 23, 2026). Per share that is $9.61; our models calculate a fair value of $10.99 per share.
What do the bullish and bearish scenarios say about SGIOY?
Our models span a range for Shionogi & Co Ltd ADR: cautious scenario $8.27, base $10.99, optimistic $13.72 per share (as of Oct 23, 2026, price $9.61). The range comes from different growth and margin assumptions, not from analyst opinions.
What is the P/E ratio of SGIOY?
Shionogi & Co Ltd ADR trades at a price-to-earnings ratio of 9.6 (as of Oct 23, 2026). A P/E on its own says little: it compares the price with ONE year of profit, while our fair value of $10.99 is built from several models across several years. Other multiples: P/B 1.5, P/S 4.6, EV/EBITDA 12.3.
How solid is the balance sheet of Shionogi & Co Ltd (SGIOY)?
Balance-sheet figures for Shionogi & Co Ltd ADR (as of Oct 23, 2026): return on equity 16.8%. They feed the Quality Score of 63/100, which measures business quality independently of the share price.
How far is SGIOY from its 52-week high?
Shionogi & Co Ltd ADR trades at $9.61, about 16% below its 52-week high of $11.48 and 24% above the low of $7.77 (as of Oct 22, 2026). Distance from the high says nothing about value: that is what the fair value of $10.99 is for.
Which stocks are comparable to Shionogi & Co Ltd ADR?
From the same area (Healthcare) we also value Merck KGaA, Takeda Pharmaceutical Company, Galderma Group, Teva Pharmaceutical Industries Limited, among others. Each of them has its own fair-value calculation on this site using the same models, so the comparison is like for like.
Is Shionogi & Co Ltd ADR stock attractive at the current price?
The data as of Oct 23, 2026: price $9.61, calculated fair value $10.99 (+14%), Quality Score 63/100, from 25 models. Whether that fits your horizon and risk tolerance is your call. We provide the calculation, not investment advice.
How is the fair value of SGIOY calculated?
We run Shionogi & Co Ltd ADR through 25 models from four families: discounted cash flow, earnings models, asset and balance-sheet models, and dividend models. Every model gets the same audited fundamentals; the result is the weighted average of $10.99, with the spread shown as a cautious and an optimistic scenario.
Is it still worth investing in stocks now?
The global stock market currently sits 13.2 % above its aggregate fair value. Shionogi & Co Ltd ADR currently trades 13 % below its own fair value, and the market average says nothing about that. An expensive market is no reason to stay out and no reason to buy everything at once: keep a broad savings plan running, buy single stocks only with money you can do without, and hold part of your money liquid while the market is high. The full picture including sectors is on is it worth investing now.
What is the share price of Shionogi & Co Ltd (SGIOY)?
The closing price on Oct 22, 2026 was $9.61. Our model-based fair value is $10.99, about +14% upside (undervalued). We carry closing prices from our data provider, not a live tick.
What should I pay attention to with Shionogi & Co Ltd ADR right now?
The price sits in the lower half of our model range, the side with the larger margin of safety. The data supports the verdict: every model runs on fully documented inputs.
Where does the earnings growth of Shionogi & Co Ltd (SGIOY) come from?
Earnings per share at Shionogi & Co Ltd ADR grew +14.1 % a year from 2015 to 2026. Broken into its drivers: revenue per share +6.5 %, EBIT margin +3.1 %, tax rate +3.0 %, residual (interest, one-offs) +0.8 %. The four rates multiply to the earnings growth rate, they do not add up. Start and end are three-year averages so a single exceptional year does not distort the result.
Key figures of Shionogi & Co Ltd ADR
How large is the market capitalisation of Shionogi & Co Ltd (SGIOY)?
The market capitalisation of Shionogi & Co Ltd ADR is $16.4B. The stock-market value of the whole company: share price times number of shares. It is what the market asks for the entire business today.
What is the P/S ratio of Shionogi & Co Ltd (SGIOY)?
The price-to-sales ratio of Shionogi & Co Ltd ADR is 3.95 (P/E × margin). Price to sales: market value relative to yearly revenue. Useful when profit is thin or distorted.
What are the earnings per share of Shionogi & Co Ltd (SGIOY)?
Earnings per share at Shionogi & Co Ltd ADR are $1.00 (price ÷ EPS = P/E 9.6). Earnings per share over the last twelve months: total profit spread across every single share.
What is the dividend yield of Shionogi & Co Ltd (SGIOY)?
The dividend yield of Shionogi & Co Ltd ADR is 2.4% (payout 22.7%). Yearly dividend relative to the share price. 3% pays 3 per 100 invested. Below: how much of profit is used for it.
What is the net margin of Shionogi & Co Ltd (SGIOY)?
The net margin of Shionogi & Co Ltd ADR is 41.1% (fiscal year 2026). How much of every unit of revenue ends up as profit. 10% means 10 cents of profit per dollar of sales.
What is the return on equity of Shionogi & Co Ltd (SGIOY)?
The return on equity (ROE) of Shionogi & Co Ltd ADR is 16.8% (last twelve months). Profit relative to shareholders' equity, how efficiently the company works with its owners' money.
What is the EBIT return on assets of Shionogi & Co Ltd (SGIOY)?
On an EBIT basis the return on assets of Shionogi & Co Ltd ADR is 10.2% (avg 5y). Operating profit (EBIT) relative to everything the company owns, as a multi-year average. It describes the business model rather than one good or bad year.
What is the operating margin of Shionogi & Co Ltd (SGIOY)?
The operating margin of Shionogi & Co Ltd ADR is 11.4% (last twelve months). Profit from the core business (before interest and taxes) relative to revenue.
How fast is revenue growing at Shionogi & Co Ltd (SGIOY)?
Revenue at Shionogi & Co Ltd ADR is growing +63.7% versus a year earlier (3y avg +7.5%). How much revenue grew versus a year earlier (YoY). The 3-year average next to it puts the single year in context.
How fast are earnings growing at Shionogi & Co Ltd (SGIOY)?
Earnings per share at Shionogi & Co Ltd ADR are growing +148% versus a year earlier. How much earnings per share grew versus a year earlier.
How much net cash does Shionogi & Co Ltd (SGIOY) hold?
Shionogi & Co Ltd ADR holds more cash than debt, ¥27.1B net (fiscal year 2026). The company holds more cash than debt, a safety cushion.
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Broad data
Oct 23, 2026