Shinkin Central Bank (SKCBY) fair value: what the stock is really worth
As of Sep 18, 2026: fair value of Shinkin Central Bank $1.56, price $7.06, upside -78.0%, quality 50 out of 100. Calculated from audited financials with 26 valuation models and 37 quality factors, updated daily.
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Price vs Fair Value
White line = price, green steps = our fair value per fiscal year, dashed = 300-day average. As of Sep 23, 2026.
How to read this chart
49‑month range $7.06 – $9.81 · fair‑value band $1.17 – $1.95 · the $7.06 price screens above the $1.56 fair value. Green steps = our fair value per fiscal year (point-in-time, no hindsight). Dashed = 300-day average. As of Sep 23, 2026.
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Shinkin Central Bank operates as a central bank for Shinkin banks in Japan. The company provides various products and services, such as deposits, debentures, lending, market fund management, trading operations, clearing, and trust services.
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Shinkin Central Bank operates as a central bank for Shinkin banks in Japan. The company provides various products and services, such as deposits, debentures, lending, market fund management, trading operations, clearing, and trust services. It also involved in the brokerage and dealing; business support operations; consumer credit guarantees services; asset management; investment and merger and acquisition advisory operations; and contracted data processing services. Shinkin Central Bank was incorporated in 1950 and is headquartered in Tokyo, Japan.
Stock analysis
Shinkin Central Bank (SKCBY) currently trades at $7.06, while our model-based Fair Value estimate is $1.56, implying the stock looks roughly 353.7% overvalued today.
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Valuation
How firm this estimate is: it rests on 24 models at a data quality of 95/100, which puts the evidence level at medium.
Scenario range: $1.17 (bear) to $1.95 (bull), the price of $7.06 sits above it. Bear and bull are the same models on cautious and optimistic assumptions, a range, not a price target.
Quality & growth
The Quality Score stands at 50/100 (solid quality), in the Financial Services sector.
Mixed Growth: Revenue is growing, but margins or cash flow do not fully confirm the trend.
Shinkin Central Bank reported revenue of ¥465B in FY2025 versus ¥245B in FY2021, a compound +17.4%/yr. Reported net income was ¥42.4B in FY2025, compounding +7.6%/yr from FY2021.
Key figures
Market cap $15.4B · P/E ratio 54.3 · P/S ratio 4.96 · EPS (TTM) $0.1300 · Net margin 9.1% · Return on equity 2.8% · Return on assets (EBIT) 0.1% · Operating margin 23.5%.
Competitive moat
Our AI-assisted moat analysis scores the competitive advantage at 35 out of 100 (low confidence).
What moves the price
The share trades at its 52-week high and at its 52-week low, currently above its 200-day average.
For context, the median of 10 Financial Services peers we cover trades at −38% fair-value upside, at −78%, SKCBY screens richer than that median.
Fair Value models
Bear $1.17Fair Value $1.56Bull $1.95
Model ⓘEach model values the company its own way (discounted cash flow, earnings, assets, dividends). The fair value above is their evidence-weighted blend, not the output of a single model. Based on fiscal year 2025 figures (about 12 months old). Earnings retained since then ($0.1300 per share) are deliberately not added.Bear ⓘBear = the cautious scenario: the same model computed with conservative anchors (lower growth, margins and valuation multiples). Together with Bull it frames a plausible valuation range, not a price target.BaseBull ⓘBull = the optimistic scenario: the same model computed with favourable anchors (higher growth, margins and valuation multiples). Together with Bear it frames a plausible valuation range, not a price target.Evidence ⓘEvidence = how well-backed THIS model's estimate is for this stock (0–100): how complete and reliable its input data are, and how well the model fits the company. The final Fair Value is an evidence-weighted blend, so better-evidenced models count more. Green ≥70, amber 50–69, grey below 50.
Growth Quality ⓘGrowth is valuable only when reinvestment earns attractive returns (Aswath Damodaran): sustainable growth depends on return on capital, reinvestment and efficiency. Basis: total company revenue over the periods shown on the cards (3Y/5Y/all years), not per share, so a merger can show up as a growth jump; per-share earnings growth is in the value-creation card.86/100
Revenue is growing, but margins or cash flow do not fully confirm the trend.
Revenue growth 1 year
+12.9%
Revenue growth 3 years ⓘMeasures the company's TOTAL revenue from reported annual statements: compound average growth per year (CAGR) from the fiscal year 3, 5 or N years back to the most recent comparable fiscal year. Not per share: buybacks do not change this number, and a merger can appear as a growth jump. Per-share growth (which does include buybacks) is in the value-creation card.
+26.4%
Revenue growth 5 years ⓘMeasures the company's TOTAL revenue from reported annual statements: compound average growth per year (CAGR) from the fiscal year 3, 5 or N years back to the most recent comparable fiscal year. Not per share: buybacks do not change this number, and a merger can appear as a growth jump. Per-share growth (which does include buybacks) is in the value-creation card.
+10.2%
Start year 2020 (pandemic). Over 10 years: +4.6% a year
Revenue growth 17 years ⓘMeasures the company's TOTAL revenue from reported annual statements: compound average growth per year (CAGR) from the fiscal year 3, 5 or N years back to the most recent comparable fiscal year. Not per share: buybacks do not change this number, and a merger can appear as a growth jump. Per-share growth (which does include buybacks) is in the value-creation card.
+0.4%
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What shareholders gained per year (last 5 years), in JPY ⓘWhat the business itself delivers per year: earnings growth per share plus the dividend yield. This is what you get IF the market keeps valuing the stock the same way: it contains no assumption about the market changing its mind. Computed per share, so buybacks count and a merger does not pass as growth. For a company that pays no dividend it is pure earnings growth per share. Period: earnings growth per share as CAGR over the last 5 reported fiscal years (annual statements), plus the current dividend yield. The start value is the median of the three years around the start, so a single crisis year (a pandemic or a write-down) does not distort the rate. Measured in JPY: this currency has depreciated against the euro and dollar over the long run, so part of the nominal rate is currency erosion that never reaches a EUR/USD investor.
−4.1%
Earnings growth per share plus dividend.
Earnings per share, growth per year−4.1%
Dividend (yield on the price)0.0%
Pace: 5 vs 10 years ⓘTwo data points, not a trend model: earnings growth per share over the last 5 fiscal years against the last 10. Labelled "steady" when both rates are within 3 percentage points of each other, otherwise picking up or flattening. Shown only when ten years of history exist.−4% vs −5%, steady
Profit margin 2020 to 2025 ⓘOperating margin then vs now, from reported annual statements. A falling margin after a boom year is the classic peak-earnings signal: the growth rate then leans on an inflated base.20% → 13%
Start year 2020 (pandemic)
⚠ Revenue per share shrinking 1.6%/yr over ~10Y (margins eroding too) ⓘStructural-decline marker: revenue PER SHARE has fallen over the last decade (robust median trend, not a single year). Backtested across 2005 to 2017, such businesses trailed the market by about 2.5 percentage points per year. Display only: it does not change the fair value or the quality score.
Price, fair value, quality and upside side by side.
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Peer GroupⓘHow this stock ranks against its industry: the green marker is this stock, the band is the typical 25–75% peer range, and the tick is the median.Banks - Regional · 1074 stocks
Beats the industry median on 3/11 measures
Overall it trails its industry peers.
Valuation
Quality Score59 · Top 25%
Fair Value upside−78% · Bottom 25%
Profitability
Return on equity (TTM)3% · Bottom 25%
Return on assets0% · Bottom 25%
Net margin (TTM)21% · Below median
Operating margin (TTM)24% · Bottom 25%
Growth and dividend
Revenue growth13% · Above median
Valuation Multiplesvs Banks - Regional median · lower = cheaper
P/E (TTM)54.3× · Priciest 25%
P/B1.63× · Priciest 25%
P/S (TTM)12.19× · Priciest 25%
P/FCF0.0× · Cheapest 25%
Strength profile in five axes (Snowflake)
This stockSector peers
VALUE (fair-value potential)0· sector 12
FUTURE (revenue growth)63· sector 45
PAST (return on equity)11· sector 41
HEALTH (low debt)0· sector 85
DIVIDEND (yield)0· sector 53
VALUE 0: the price sits above our fair-value range.
For bloggers, editors and developers: paste this into your site or blog (a “Custom HTML” block in WordPress), it shows the current fair value and links back here. Free, plain HTML, and welcome. Full data streams (CSV/JSON) at /developers.
Cite: Fair Value Calculator (2026). "Shinkin Central Bank Fair Value". https://www.fairvalue-calculator.com/stock/SKCBY
Frequently asked questions
Is Shinkin Central Bank (SKCBY) overvalued or undervalued?
As of Sep 23, 2026, our model estimates a fair value of $1.56 versus a price of $7.06, about −78% upside (overvalued).
What is the fair value of SKCBY?
Our model-based fair value for Shinkin Central Bank is $1.56 (as of Sep 23, 2026), built from audited fundamentals. The current price: $7.06.
What is the quality score of SKCBY?
Shinkin Central Bank has a Quality Score of 50/100. It measures business quality (profitability, growth, cash flow, balance-sheet strength, investment discipline, share issuance). Market factors such as price momentum and volatility do not enter the number; they are shown separately in the detail view.
What is the price target for Shinkin Central Bank (SKCBY)?
Our model-based price target is the fair value of $1.56 (as of Sep 23, 2026) from 4 valuation models. Cautious scenario $1.17, optimistic scenario $1.95. It is a calculation from audited fundamentals, not an analyst target.
What is the Shinkin Central Bank stock forecast for 2026?
Our models put fair value at $1.56, about −78% upside versus a price of $7.06 (overvalued). Cautious scenario $1.17, optimistic scenario $1.95. The calculation is refreshed regularly with new filings.
What is the revenue of Shinkin Central Bank (SKCBY)?
Shinkin Central Bank reported trailing-twelve-month revenue of about ¥200B (latest available figure, as of Sep 23, 2026).
What is the intrinsic value of Shinkin Central Bank (SKCBY)?
Intrinsic value and fair value mean the same thing: what the business is worth on its numbers, independent of the share price. For Shinkin Central Bank it is $1.56 per share (as of Sep 23, 2026), against a price of $7.06. It is the blended result of 4 valuation models (cash flow, earnings, asset, dividend).
Is Shinkin Central Bank stock overvalued or undervalued in 2026?
As of Sep 23, 2026, SKCBY trades above its calculated fair value: price $7.06, fair value $1.56, a gap of about −78% (overvalued). The calculation is refreshed with each new quarterly report, so the verdict can change during the year.
Is fair value the same as the market price of SKCBY?
No. The price is what the market pays today ($7.06); the fair value is what the company's own numbers justify ($1.56). For Shinkin Central Bank the two are $5.50 per share apart. That gap is exactly why we show both numbers side by side.
How much is Shinkin Central Bank worth?
The market values Shinkin Central Bank at about $15.4B (market capitalisation, as of Sep 23, 2026). Per share that is $7.06; our models calculate a fair value of $1.56 per share.
What do the bullish and bearish scenarios say about SKCBY?
Our models span a range for Shinkin Central Bank: cautious scenario $1.17, base $1.56, optimistic $1.95 per share (as of Sep 23, 2026, price $7.06). The range comes from different growth and margin assumptions, not from analyst opinions.
What is the P/E ratio of SKCBY?
Shinkin Central Bank trades at a price-to-earnings ratio of 54.3 (as of Sep 23, 2026). A P/E on its own says little: it compares the price with ONE year of profit, while our fair value of $1.56 is built from several models across several years. Other multiples: P/B 1.6, P/S 12.2.
How solid is the balance sheet of Shinkin Central Bank (SKCBY)?
Balance-sheet figures for Shinkin Central Bank (as of Sep 23, 2026): return on equity 2.8%. They feed the Quality Score of 50/100, which measures business quality independently of the share price.
How far is SKCBY from its 52-week high?
Shinkin Central Bank trades at $7.06, at its 52-week high of $7.06 and at the low of $7.06 (as of Sep 18, 2026). Distance from the high says nothing about value: that is what the fair value of $1.56 is for.
Which stocks are comparable to Shinkin Central Bank?
From the same area (Financial Services) we also value DBS Group, China Merchants Bank Co, Intesa Sanpaolo S.p.A, HDFC Bank Limited, among others. Each of them has its own fair-value calculation on this site using the same models, so the comparison is like for like.
Is Shinkin Central Bank stock attractive at the current price?
The data as of Sep 23, 2026: price $7.06, calculated fair value $1.56 (−78%), Quality Score 50/100, from 4 models. Whether that fits your horizon and risk tolerance is your call. We provide the calculation, not investment advice.
How is the fair value of SKCBY calculated?
We run Shinkin Central Bank through 4 models from four families: discounted cash flow, earnings models, asset and balance-sheet models, and dividend models. Every model gets the same audited fundamentals; the result is the weighted average of $1.56, with the spread shown as a cautious and an optimistic scenario.
Is it still worth investing in stocks now?
The global stock market currently sits 14.1 % above its aggregate fair value. Shinkin Central Bank itself currently trades above fair value. An expensive market is no reason to stay out and no reason to buy everything at once: keep a broad savings plan running, buy single stocks only with money you can do without, and hold part of your money liquid while the market is high. The full picture including sectors is on is it worth investing now.
What is the share price of Shinkin Central Bank (SKCBY)?
The closing price on Sep 18, 2026 was $7.06. Our model-based fair value is $1.56, about −78% upside (overvalued). We carry closing prices from our data provider, not a live tick.
What should I pay attention to with Shinkin Central Bank right now?
The price sits above even our optimistic bull case ($1.95). The favourable scenario is already priced in. Solid but not exceptional quality (50/100) and above fair value, neither a clear bargain nor a standout compounder. For a financial, book-value and earnings-based methods matter more than a cash-flow DCF, which fits banks and insurers poorly.
Where does the earnings growth of Shinkin Central Bank (SKCBY) come from?
Earnings per share at Shinkin Central Bank grew −7.8 % a year from 2014 to 2025. Broken into its drivers: revenue per share −0.5 %, EBIT margin −7.5 %, tax rate +0.1 %, residual (interest, one-offs) +0.0 %. The four rates multiply to the earnings growth rate, they do not add up. Start and end are three-year averages so a single exceptional year does not distort the result.
Key figures of Shinkin Central Bank
How large is the market capitalisation of Shinkin Central Bank (SKCBY)?
The market capitalisation of Shinkin Central Bank is $15.4B. The stock-market value of the whole company: share price times number of shares. It is what the market asks for the entire business today.
What is the P/S ratio of Shinkin Central Bank (SKCBY)?
The price-to-sales ratio of Shinkin Central Bank is 4.96 (P/E × margin). Price to sales: market value relative to yearly revenue. Useful when profit is thin or distorted.
What are the earnings per share of Shinkin Central Bank (SKCBY)?
Earnings per share at Shinkin Central Bank are $0.1300 (price ÷ EPS = P/E 54.3). Earnings per share over the last twelve months: total profit spread across every single share.
What is the net margin of Shinkin Central Bank (SKCBY)?
The net margin of Shinkin Central Bank is 9.1% (fiscal year 2025). How much of every unit of revenue ends up as profit. 10% means 10 cents of profit per dollar of sales.
What is the return on equity of Shinkin Central Bank (SKCBY)?
The return on equity (ROE) of Shinkin Central Bank is 2.8% (last twelve months). Profit relative to shareholders' equity, how efficiently the company works with its owners' money.
What is the EBIT return on assets of Shinkin Central Bank (SKCBY)?
On an EBIT basis the return on assets of Shinkin Central Bank is 0.1% (avg 5y). Operating profit (EBIT) relative to everything the company owns, as a multi-year average. It describes the business model rather than one good or bad year.
What is the operating margin of Shinkin Central Bank (SKCBY)?
The operating margin of Shinkin Central Bank is 23.5% (last twelve months). Profit from the core business (before interest and taxes) relative to revenue.
How fast is revenue growing at Shinkin Central Bank (SKCBY)?
Revenue at Shinkin Central Bank is growing +12.5% versus a year earlier (3y avg +26.4%). How much revenue grew versus a year earlier (YoY). The 3-year average next to it puts the single year in context.
How fast are earnings growing at Shinkin Central Bank (SKCBY)?
Earnings per share at Shinkin Central Bank are growing −7.7% versus a year earlier. How much earnings per share grew versus a year earlier.
How much free cash flow does Shinkin Central Bank (SKCBY) generate?
The free cash flow of Shinkin Central Bank is ¥2.2T (fiscal year 2025). The cash truly left after running and investing in the business, this is what pays dividends and buybacks.
How much net cash does Shinkin Central Bank (SKCBY) hold?
Shinkin Central Bank holds more cash than debt, ¥10.7T net (fiscal year 2025). The company holds more cash than debt, a safety cushion.
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Sep 23, 2026