Sumitomo Mitsui Financial Group Inc (SMFG) fair value: what the stock is really worth
As of Nov 5, 2026: fair value (intrinsic value) of Sumitomo Mitsui Financial Group Inc stock $11.64, price $23.48, that is 50.4% below the price, quality 60 out of 100. Rating: strongly overvalued. Calculated from audited financials with 6 of our 26 valuation models and 37 quality factors, updated daily.
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Price vs Fair Value
White line = price, green steps = our fair value per fiscal year. As of Nov 6, 2026.
How to read this chart
60‑month range $4.69 – $27.11 · fair‑value band $8.73 – $14.54 · the $23.48 price screens above the $11.64 fair value. Green steps = our fair value per fiscal year (point-in-time, no hindsight). 1 fiscal year is left out: there the valuation rested on only a fraction of the usual models. As of Nov 6, 2026.
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Sumitomo Mitsui Financial Group, Inc., together with its subsidiaries, provides banking, leasing, securities, consumer finance, and other services in Japan, the Americas, Europe, the Middle East, Asia, and Oceania.
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It operates through four segments: Wholesale Business Unit, Retail Business Unit, Global Business Unit, and Global Markets Business Unit.
The Wholesale Business Unit segment offers bilateral loans, syndicated loans, commitment lines, structured finance, project finance, and nonrecourse loans; deposits and investment trusts; risk hedging services, including forward exchange contracts and derivatives; stand-by credit, and performance bond and credit guarantee services; remittance, cash management, trade finance, and supply chain finance services; merger and acquisition, and other advisory services; digital services; and equipment, operating and leveraged leasing services.
The Retail Business Unit segment provides wealth management services, such as time deposits and foreign currency deposits, investment trusts, equities, bonds, insurance products, and trust services; credit card, installment, and transaction services; and consumer finance and housing loans.
The Global Business Unit segment offers loans, deposits, clearing, trade finance, project finance, loan syndication, derivatives, and global cash management services; equity and fixed income sales and trading, and underwriting services; and construction machinery, transportation equipment, industrial machinery, medical equipment, and other leasing services.
The Global Markets Business Unit segment provides asset liability management and portfolio management, foreign currency funding, and sales and trading services. The company offers system development, data processing, management consulting, economic research, and asset management services.
Sumitomo Mitsui Financial Group, Inc. was incorporated in 2002 and is headquartered in Tokyo, Japan.
Stock analysis
Sumitomo Mitsui Financial Group Inc (SMFG) currently trades at $23.48, while our model-based Fair Value estimate is $11.64, 50% below the price, so the stock looks overvalued today.
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Valuation
Bull case: the Economic Profit group reads highest at a median of $17.11 per share, and 0 of the 6 models we run sit above the $23.48 price.
Bear case: the Multiples group reads lowest at $5.35, and 6 of the 6 models stay below the price. Data coverage for this calculation is medium.
Scenario range: $8.73 (bear) to $14.54 (bull), the price of $23.48 sits above it. Bear and bull are the same models on cautious and optimistic assumptions, a range, not a price target.
Quality & growth
The Quality Score stands at 60/100 (solid quality), in the Financial Services sector.
Healthy Growth: Revenue growth appears healthy and is supported by profitability and cash-flow quality.
Sumitomo Mitsui Financial Group Inc reported revenue of ¥10.8T in FY2026 versus ¥3.8T in FY2022, a compound +29.9%/yr. Reported net income was ¥1.7T in FY2026, compounding +24.1%/yr from FY2022.
Key figures
Market cap $150B Large · P/E ratio 13.6 · P/S ratio 2.10 · EPS (TTM) $1.73 · Dividend yield 2.1% · Net margin 15.5% · Return on equity 8.6% · Return on assets (EBIT) 0.5%.
Competitive moat
Our AI-assisted moat analysis scores the competitive advantage at 65 out of 100 (low confidence).
What moves the price
The share trades about 13% below its 52-week high and 50% above its 52-week low, currently above its 200-day average.
For context, the median of 10 Financial Services peers we cover trades at −15% fair-value upside, at −50%, SMFG screens richer than that median.
Fair Value models
Bear$8.73Fair Value $11.64Bull$14.54
Price $23.48 · Downside -50.4%
Model ⓘEach model values the company its own way (discounted cash flow, earnings, assets, dividends). The fair value above starts from their evidence-weighted blend, not from a single model. In cyclical trough or peak years, after dilution or a stock split it is adjusted afterwards, so it can sit above or below the models. Based on fiscal year 2026 figures (about 7 months old). Earnings retained since then ($0.7431 per share) are deliberately not added.Bear ⓘBear = the cautious scenario: the same model computed with conservative anchors (lower growth, margins and valuation multiples). Together with Bull it frames a plausible valuation range, not a price target.BaseBull ⓘBull = the optimistic scenario: the same model computed with favourable anchors (higher growth, margins and valuation multiples). Together with Bear it frames a plausible valuation range, not a price target. If a model's bull case is above four times its base value, the table shows that limit with a > sign (like the overall Bull above): beyond it no assumption holds.Coverage ⓘCoverage = how well-backed THIS model's estimate is for this stock (0–100): how complete and reliable its input data are, and how well the model fits the company. The final Fair Value is an evidence-weighted blend, so better-evidenced models count more. Green ≥70, amber 50–69, grey below 50.
Best data coverage
Residual Income$14.75$17.11$23.5876
DDM Multi-Stage$5.80$10.56$13.7266
Gordon GGM$5.80$13.27$23.7965
All 6 models by family
Dividend Discount
Gordon GGM$5.80$13.27$23.7965
DDM Multi-Stage$5.80$10.56$13.7266
Multiples
P/E Multiple$16.52$22.03$27.5463
P/B Multiple$4.01$5.35$6.6855
Asset-Based
NCAV (Graham)$7.42$9.94$14.8454
Economic Profit
Residual Income$14.75$17.11$23.5876
The fair value above starts from this blend and is adjusted for dilution from new shares.
Growth Quality ⓘGrowth is valuable only when reinvestment earns attractive returns (Aswath Damodaran): sustainable growth depends on return on capital, reinvestment and efficiency. Basis: total company revenue over the periods shown on the cards (3Y/5Y/all years), not per share, so a merger can show up as a growth jump; per-share earnings growth is in the value-creation card.95/100
Revenue growth appears healthy and is supported by profitability and cash-flow quality.
Revenue growth 1 year
+12.1%
Revenue growth 3 years ⓘMeasures the company's TOTAL revenue from reported annual statements: compound average growth per year (CAGR) from the fiscal year 3, 5 or N years back to the most recent comparable fiscal year. Not per share: buybacks do not change this number, and a merger can appear as a growth jump. Per-share growth (which does include buybacks) is in the value-creation card.
+23.2%
Revenue growth 5 years ⓘMeasures the company's TOTAL revenue from reported annual statements: compound average growth per year (CAGR) from the fiscal year 3, 5 or N years back to the most recent comparable fiscal year. Not per share: buybacks do not change this number, and a merger can appear as a growth jump. Per-share growth (which does include buybacks) is in the value-creation card.
+24.8%
Start year 2021 (pandemic). Over 10 years: +10.0% a year
Revenue growth 26 years ⓘMeasures the company's TOTAL revenue from reported annual statements: compound average growth per year (CAGR) from the fiscal year 3, 5 or N years back to the most recent comparable fiscal year. Not per share: buybacks do not change this number, and a merger can appear as a growth jump. Per-share growth (which does include buybacks) is in the value-creation card.
+8.1%
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What shareholders gained per year (last 5 years), in JPY ⓘWhat the business itself delivers per year: earnings growth per share plus the dividend yield. This is what you get IF the market keeps valuing the stock the same way: it contains no assumption about the market changing its mind. Computed per share, so buybacks count and a merger does not pass as growth. For a company that pays no dividend it is pure earnings growth per share. Period: earnings growth per share as CAGR over the last 5 reported fiscal years (annual statements), plus the current dividend yield. The start value is the median of the three years around the start, so a single crisis year (a pandemic or a write-down) does not distort the rate. Basis: adjusted. Measured in JPY: this currency has depreciated against the euro and dollar over the long run, so part of the nominal rate is currency erosion that never reaches a EUR/USD investor.
+15.0%
Earnings growth per share plus dividend.
Earnings per share, growth per year+12.9%
Dividend (yield on the price)2.1%
Pace: 5 vs 10 years ⓘTwo data points, not a trend model: earnings growth per share over the last 5 fiscal years against the last 10. Labelled "steady" when both rates are within 3 percentage points of each other, otherwise picking up or flattening. Shown only when ten years of history exist.9.0% vs 5.2%, picking up
Profit margin 2021 to 2026 ⓘOperating margin then vs now, from reported annual statements. A falling margin after a boom year is the classic peak-earnings signal: the growth rate then leans on an inflated base.19% → 22%
Pace: the 5-year rate starts in 2021 (pandemic)
Growth Forecast
Little optimism in the price
What the price assumes ⓘThis turns our valuation around: instead of asking what the share is worth, it asks what growth the current price requires. It uses the cash the company keeps after all spending (free cash flow), the same discount rate as our models, five years of growth, then slowing evenly to 2 % a year by year ten. Compared with the analysts' sales forecasts extended to the same five years (at least three analysts, for context only, it does not enter the Fair Value): within 3 percentage points counts as "in line" (amber), below that little optimism (green), above that a lot of optimism (red).
less than -40 %
The company could shrink this much every year for the next five years and today's price would still be justified.
What forecasts expect ⓘAnalysts publish sales forecasts for the next two fiscal years. For the years after that, growth slows evenly to 2 % a year by year ten (2 % is the long-run rate our models use). Projected years are marked as such.
−6.4%
Yearly sales growth analysts expect, extended to five years.
After inflation (figures in JPY, Japan: IMF forecast 2.1% a year to 2030, 1.3% from 2016 to 2025) that is about −8.3% a year for the forecasts.
AI conclusion: Domestic scale in Japanese banking forms the main strength with a moderate moat, while limited differentiation and cross-shareholding governance norms stand out as the key weakness.
Main risk: Visa and Mastercard's stablecoin offerings for enterprise cross-border payments could reduce demand for SMFG's traditional remittance services and squeeze fee margins.
Bull case: SMFG could leverage its stablecoin pilots and AI investments to offer competitive digital payment solutions and expand into new financial infrastructure services.
Bear case: If card networks and fintech players dominate digital payments, SMFG's fee income from international transfers and retail services might decline significantly over time.
SMFG has just launched SMBC Wealth, a new integrated brand linking its bank, securities and trust units to serve high-net-worth clients with nearly four times as many bond products and 3.7 times more funds. The group targets a 20 percent rise in relevant assets by 2029 through this push into wealth management. Our models currently see the shares as overvalued. Will the expanded fee-generating capability outweigh slower traditional lending growth or will the core business limit the upside?
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Price, fair value, quality and upside side by side.
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Peer GroupⓘHow this stock ranks against its industry: the green marker is this stock, the band is the typical 25–75% peer range, and the tick is the median.Banks - Diversified · 46 stocks
Beats the industry median on 4/14 measures
Overall it trails its industry peers.
Valuation
Quality Score60 · Above median
Fair Value upside−50.4% · Bottom 25%
Profitability
Return on equity (12 months)8.6% · Bottom 25%
Return on assets0.5% · Bottom 25%
Net margin (12 months)27.8% · Below median
Operating margin (12 months)40.9% · Below median
Growth and dividend
Revenue growth (quarter YoY)24.8% · Top 25%
Dividend yield (12 months)2.1% · Bottom 25%
Balance sheet
Debt / equity1.61× · Above median
Valuation Multiplesvs Banks - Diversified median · lower = cheaper
For bloggers, editors and developers: paste this into your site or blog (a “Custom HTML” block in WordPress), it shows the current fair value and links back here. Free, plain HTML, and welcome. Full data streams (CSV/JSON) at /developers.
Cite: Fair Value Calculator (2026). "Sumitomo Mitsui Financial Group Inc Fair Value". https://www.fairvalue-calculator.com/stock/SMFG
Frequently asked questions
Is Sumitomo Mitsui Financial Group Inc (SMFG) overvalued or undervalued?
As of Nov 6, 2026, our model estimates a fair value of $11.64 versus a price of $23.48, about 50% lower (overvalued).
What is the fair value of SMFG?
Our model-based fair value for Sumitomo Mitsui Financial Group Inc is $11.64 (as of Nov 6, 2026), built from audited fundamentals. The current price: $23.48.
What is the quality score of SMFG?
Sumitomo Mitsui Financial Group Inc has a Quality Score of 60/100. It measures business quality (profitability, growth, cash flow, balance-sheet strength, investment discipline, share issuance). Market factors such as price momentum and volatility do not enter the number; they are shown separately in the detail view.
What is the price target for Sumitomo Mitsui Financial Group Inc (SMFG)?
Our model-based price target is the fair value of $11.64 (as of Nov 6, 2026) from 6 valuation models. Cautious scenario $8.73, optimistic scenario $14.54. It is a calculation from audited fundamentals, not an analyst target.
What is the Sumitomo Mitsui Financial Group Inc stock forecast for 2026?
Our models put fair value at $11.64, about 50% lower versus a price of $23.48 (overvalued). Cautious scenario $8.73, optimistic scenario $14.54. The calculation is refreshed regularly with new filings.
What is the revenue of Sumitomo Mitsui Financial Group Inc (SMFG)?
Sumitomo Mitsui Financial Group Inc reported trailing-twelve-month revenue of about ¥4.7T (latest available figure, as of Nov 6, 2026).
Does Sumitomo Mitsui Financial Group Inc pay a dividend?
Sumitomo Mitsui Financial Group Inc currently shows a dividend yield of 2.12% relative to its recent price (as of Nov 6, 2026).
What growth is priced into Sumitomo Mitsui Financial Group Inc (SMFG)?
For today's price to be fair in a discounted-cash-flow model, Sumitomo Mitsui Financial Group Inc would have to grow free cash flow by less than minus 40 % per year for five years (discount rate 8.1 %, then slowing evenly to 2 % perpetual growth by year ten). Over the last 5 years revenue grew +24.8 % per year. As of Nov 6, 2026.
What discount rate (WACC) does the fair value of SMFG use?
Our models discount Sumitomo Mitsui Financial Group Inc at 8.1 %: a base by market capitalisation (large), damped by beta 0.40, country premium for USA. The same rate applies in all 26 models.
What is a reverse DCF?
A reverse DCF turns the usual calculation around. Instead of deriving a value from assumptions, it takes today's price as given and asks: what free-cash-flow growth would a company have to deliver for exactly this price to be fair? The result is not a forecast but the expectation already priced in. For Sumitomo Mitsui Financial Group Inc that is less than minus 40 % per year a year over ten years, using the same discount rate (8.1 %) and the same formula as our fair value.
How much growth has Sumitomo Mitsui Financial Group Inc (SMFG) delivered so far?
Over the past 5 years revenue at Sumitomo Mitsui Financial Group Inc grew +24.8 % a year. The price currently implies less than minus 40 % per year free-cash-flow growth a year. Comparing the two shows how much confidence is in the price: if it demands more than has been delivered, the business has to accelerate for the maths to work.
How fast is the sector of Sumitomo Mitsui Financial Group Inc (SMFG) growing?
The median revenue growth in the sector is +9.4 % a year. That is the yardstick for the growth priced into Sumitomo Mitsui Financial Group Inc (less than minus 40 % per year a year): it shows whether the expectation is within the usual range or beyond it.
What is the free cash flow yield of Sumitomo Mitsui Financial Group Inc (SMFG)?
The free-cash-flow yield on the price is 30.84 %: that much free cash flow Sumitomo Mitsui Financial Group Inc produces per unit of market value. When it exceeds the discount rate of our models (8.1 %), the business already earns more than its cost of capital demands, and the price needs little additional growth.
What is the intrinsic value of Sumitomo Mitsui Financial Group Inc (SMFG)?
Intrinsic value and fair value mean the same thing: what the business is worth on its numbers, independent of the share price. For Sumitomo Mitsui Financial Group Inc it is $11.64 per share (as of Nov 6, 2026), against a price of $23.48. It is the blended result of 6 valuation models (cash flow, earnings, asset, dividend).
Is Sumitomo Mitsui Financial Group Inc stock overvalued or undervalued in 2026?
As of Nov 6, 2026, SMFG trades above its calculated fair value: price $23.48, fair value $11.64, a gap of about −50% (overvalued). The calculation is refreshed with each new quarterly report, so the verdict can change during the year.
Is fair value the same as the market price of SMFG?
No. The price is what the market pays today ($23.48); the fair value is what the company's own numbers justify ($11.64). For Sumitomo Mitsui Financial Group Inc the two are $11.84 per share apart. That gap is exactly why we show both numbers side by side.
How much is Sumitomo Mitsui Financial Group Inc worth?
The market values Sumitomo Mitsui Financial Group Inc at about $150B (market capitalisation, as of Nov 6, 2026). Per share that is $23.48; our models calculate a fair value of $11.64 per share.
What do the bullish and bearish scenarios say about SMFG?
Our models span a range for Sumitomo Mitsui Financial Group Inc: cautious scenario $8.73, base $11.64, optimistic $14.54 per share (as of Nov 6, 2026, price $23.48). The range comes from different growth and margin assumptions, not from analyst opinions.
What is the P/E ratio of SMFG?
Sumitomo Mitsui Financial Group Inc trades at a price-to-earnings ratio of 13.6 (as of Nov 6, 2026). A P/E on its own says little: it compares the price with ONE year of profit, while our fair value of $11.64 is built from several models across several years. Excluding one-off items of fiscal year 2026 it is 15.0 (reported for FY2026: 14.2). Median P/E at fiscal year-end, 10 fiscal years (2017 to 2026), reported earnings, 8 of the years ex one-offs: 5.3. Other multiples: PEG 2.2, P/B 1.5, P/S 5.0.
What is the PEG ratio of SMFG?
The PEG ratio of Sumitomo Mitsui Financial Group Inc is 2.23 (P/E divided by earnings growth, as of Nov 6, 2026). That is above 1, so the growth is already paid for in the price.
How solid is the balance sheet of Sumitomo Mitsui Financial Group Inc (SMFG)?
Balance-sheet figures for Sumitomo Mitsui Financial Group Inc (as of Nov 6, 2026): return on equity 8.6%, debt of 1.61 per unit of equity. They feed the Quality Score of 60/100, which measures business quality independently of the share price.
How far is SMFG from its 52-week high?
Sumitomo Mitsui Financial Group Inc trades at $23.48, about 13% below its 52-week high of $27.11 and 50% above the low of $15.63 (as of Nov 5, 2026). Distance from the high says nothing about value: that is what the fair value of $11.64 is for.
Which stocks are comparable to Sumitomo Mitsui Financial Group Inc?
From the same area (Financial Services) we also value JPMorgan Chase & Co, China Construction Bank Corporation, Industrial and Commercial Bank of China Limited, Agricultural Bank of China Limited, among others. Each of them has its own fair-value calculation on this site using the same models, so the comparison is like for like.
Is Sumitomo Mitsui Financial Group Inc stock attractive at the current price?
The data as of Nov 6, 2026: price $23.48, calculated fair value $11.64 (−50%), Quality Score 60/100, from 6 models. Whether that fits your horizon and risk tolerance is your call. We provide the calculation, not investment advice.
How is the fair value of SMFG calculated?
We run Sumitomo Mitsui Financial Group Inc through 6 models from four families: discounted cash flow, earnings models, asset and balance-sheet models, and dividend models. Every model gets the same audited fundamentals; the result is the weighted average of $11.64, with the spread shown as a cautious and an optimistic scenario.
Is it still worth investing in stocks now?
The global stock market currently sits 15.5% above its aggregate fair value. Sumitomo Mitsui Financial Group Inc itself currently trades above fair value. An expensive market is no reason to stay out and no reason to buy everything at once: keep a broad savings plan running, buy single stocks only with money you can do without, and hold part of your money liquid while the market is high. The full picture including sectors is on is it worth investing now.
What is the share price of Sumitomo Mitsui Financial Group Inc (SMFG)?
The closing price on Nov 5, 2026 was $23.48. Our model-based fair value is $11.64, about 50% lower (overvalued). We carry closing prices from our data provider, not a live tick.
What should I pay attention to with Sumitomo Mitsui Financial Group Inc right now?
The price sits above even our optimistic bull case ($14.54). The favourable scenario is already priced in. Solid but not exceptional quality (60/100) and above fair value, neither a clear bargain nor a standout compounder. For a financial, book-value and earnings-based methods matter more than a cash-flow DCF, which fits banks and insurers poorly.
Where does the earnings growth of Sumitomo Mitsui Financial Group Inc (SMFG) come from?
Earnings per share at Sumitomo Mitsui Financial Group Inc grew +5.5 % a year from 2015 to 2026. Broken into its drivers: revenue per share +8.9 %, EBIT margin −7.4 %, tax rate −0.2 %, residual (interest, one-offs) +4.8 %. The four rates multiply to the earnings growth rate, they do not add up. Start and end are three-year averages so a single exceptional year does not distort the result.
Key figures of Sumitomo Mitsui Financial Group Inc
How large is the market capitalisation of Sumitomo Mitsui Financial Group Inc (SMFG)?
The market capitalisation of Sumitomo Mitsui Financial Group Inc is $150B. The stock-market value of the whole company: share price times number of shares. It is what the market asks for the entire business today.
What is the P/S ratio of Sumitomo Mitsui Financial Group Inc (SMFG)?
The price-to-sales ratio of Sumitomo Mitsui Financial Group Inc is 2.10 (P/E × margin). Price to sales: market value relative to yearly revenue. Useful when profit is thin or distorted.
What are the earnings per share of Sumitomo Mitsui Financial Group Inc (SMFG)?
Earnings per share at Sumitomo Mitsui Financial Group Inc are $1.73 (price ÷ EPS = P/E 13.6). Earnings per share over the last twelve months: total profit spread across every single share.
What is the dividend yield of Sumitomo Mitsui Financial Group Inc (SMFG)?
The dividend yield of Sumitomo Mitsui Financial Group Inc is 2.1% (payout 31.1%, on adjusted earnings, reported 29.3%). Yearly dividend relative to the share price. 3% pays 3 per 100 invested. Below: how much of profit is used for it.
What is the net margin of Sumitomo Mitsui Financial Group Inc (SMFG)?
The net margin of Sumitomo Mitsui Financial Group Inc is 15.5% (fiscal year 2026). How much of every unit of revenue ends up as profit. 10% means 10 cents of profit per dollar of sales.
What is the return on equity of Sumitomo Mitsui Financial Group Inc (SMFG)?
The return on equity (ROE) of Sumitomo Mitsui Financial Group Inc is 8.6% (last twelve months). Profit relative to shareholders' equity, how efficiently the company works with its owners' money.
What is the EBIT return on assets of Sumitomo Mitsui Financial Group Inc (SMFG)?
On an EBIT basis the return on assets of Sumitomo Mitsui Financial Group Inc is 0.5% (avg 5y). Operating profit (EBIT) relative to everything the company owns, as a multi-year average. It describes the business model rather than one good or bad year.
What is the operating margin of Sumitomo Mitsui Financial Group Inc (SMFG)?
The operating margin of Sumitomo Mitsui Financial Group Inc is 40.9% (last twelve months). Profit from the core business (before interest and taxes) relative to revenue.
How fast is revenue growing at Sumitomo Mitsui Financial Group Inc (SMFG)?
Revenue at Sumitomo Mitsui Financial Group Inc is growing +24.8% versus a year earlier (3y avg +23.2%). How much revenue grew versus a year earlier (YoY). The 3-year average next to it puts the single year in context.
How fast are earnings growing at Sumitomo Mitsui Financial Group Inc (SMFG)?
Earnings per share at Sumitomo Mitsui Financial Group Inc are growing +35.0% versus a year earlier. How much earnings per share grew versus a year earlier.
How much net cash does Sumitomo Mitsui Financial Group Inc (SMFG) hold?
Sumitomo Mitsui Financial Group Inc holds more cash than debt, ¥15.4T net (fiscal year 2026). The company holds more cash than debt, a safety cushion.
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Nov 6, 2026