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Summerset Group (SMGRF) fair value: what the stock is really worth
As of Sep 29, 2026: fair value of Summerset Group $10.32, price $4.29, upside +140.6%, quality 40 out of 100. Calculated from audited financials with 26 valuation models and 37 quality factors, updated daily.
- Fair value above price? Yes
- Good quality? No
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Some data
Sep 24, 2026
Some data
Sep 24, 2026
Summerset Group
SMGRF · USCheap, value-trap riskThe stock looks deeply undervalued, but low quality raises value-trap risk.
✓Fair value $10.32 · Strongly undervalued (+140.6%)
!Quality 40/100
!Mixed Growth (revenue 5y +15.9 %/yr)
✓Highly profitable · 72.0% net margin (TTM)
✓Moderate debt · generates free cash flow
✓5.7% dividend yield · Well covered
!Moderate moat 48/100
!Evidence only medium, so the estimate is less certain
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What runs behind every stock
26
valuation models
8 families, DCF to NCAV
37
quality factors
margins, balance sheet, cashflow, debt
6
AI factors
moat, what no ratio measures
2,000+
data points
verified, per stock, median
69 individual criteria per stock, every one traceable See the method →
Price vs Fair Value
White line = price, green steps = our fair value per fiscal year, dashed = 300-day average. As of Sep 24, 2026.
How to read this chart
60‑month range $4.29 – $9.24 · fair‑value band $6.29 – $12.90 · the $4.29 price screens below the $10.32 fair value. Dashed = 300-day average. As of Sep 24, 2026.
Company profile
Summerset Group Holdings Limited, together with its subsidiaries, develops, owns, and operates integrated retirement villages in New Zealand and Australia. It offers living options and care services to residents. The company was founded in 1997 and is headquartered in Wellington, New Zealand.
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Summerset Group Holdings Limited, together with its subsidiaries, develops, owns, and operates integrated retirement villages in New Zealand and Australia. It offers living options and care services to residents. The company was founded in 1997 and is headquartered in Wellington, New Zealand. Summerset Group Holdings Limited operates as a subsidiary of New Zealand Central Securities Depository Limited.
Stock analysis
Summerset Group (SMGRF) currently trades at $4.29, while our model-based Fair Value estimate is $10.32, implying the stock looks roughly 58.4% undervalued today.
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Valuation
Bull case: the Growth Earnings group reads highest at a median of $15.05 per share, and 12 of the 16 models we run sit above the $4.29 price.
Bear case: the DCF Models group reads lowest at $3.25, and 4 of the 16 models stay below the price. Evidence for this calculation is medium.
Scenario range: $6.29 (bear) to $12.90 (bull), the price of $4.29 sits below it. Bear and bull are the same models on cautious and optimistic assumptions, a range, not a price target.
Quality & growth
The Quality Score stands at 40/100 (below-average quality), in the Healthcare sector.
Mixed Growth: Revenue is growing, but margins or cash flow do not fully confirm the trend.
Summerset Group reported revenue of 361M NZD in FY2025 versus 202M NZD in FY2021, a compound +15.6%/yr. Reported net income was 260M NZD in FY2025, compounding −16.9%/yr from FY2021.
Key figures
Market cap $1.1B · P/E ratio 6.9 · P/S ratio 4.98 · EPS (TTM) $0.6200 · Dividend yield 5.7% · Net margin 72.0% · Return on equity 8.3% · Return on assets (EBIT) 0.2%.
Competitive moat
Our AI-assisted moat analysis scores the competitive advantage at 51 out of 100 (low confidence).
What moves the price
The share trades about 54% below its 52-week high and at its 52-week low, currently below its 200-day average.
For context, the median of 10 Healthcare peers we cover trades at 6% fair-value upside, at 141%, SMGRF screens cheaper than that median.
Fair Value models
Bear $6.29
Fair Value $10.32
Bull $12.90
Model ⓘEach model values the company its own way (discounted cash flow, earnings, assets, dividends). The fair value above is their evidence-weighted blend, not the output of a single model. Based on fiscal year 2025 figures (about 9 months old). Earnings retained since then ($0.2836 per share) are deliberately not added.
Bear ⓘBear = the cautious scenario: the same model computed with conservative anchors (lower growth, margins and valuation multiples). Together with Bull it frames a plausible valuation range, not a price target.BaseBull ⓘBull = the optimistic scenario: the same model computed with favourable anchors (higher growth, margins and valuation multiples). Together with Bear it frames a plausible valuation range, not a price target. If a model's bull case is above four times its base value, the table shows that limit with a > sign (like the overall Bull above): beyond it no assumption holds.
Evidence ⓘEvidence = how well-backed THIS model's estimate is for this stock (0–100): how complete and reliable its input data are, and how well the model fits the company. The final Fair Value is an evidence-weighted blend, so better-evidenced models count more. Green ≥70, amber 50–69, grey below 50.
Highest evidence
Residual Income
$6.01
$6.26
$6.88
76
Growth DCF
$4.88
$12.78
$23.92
74
FCF DCF
$5.25
$11.84
$27.28
73
All 18 models by family
DCF Models
FCF DCF
$5.25
$11.84
$27.28
73
Owner Earnings
n/a
n/a
$2.94
73
5Y Revenue Exit
n/a
n/a
$0.7600
69
5Y EBITDA Exit
n/a
$0.2200
>$0.8800
72
5Y P/E Exit
$4.94
$13.44
$23.81
67
10Y Revenue Exit
$1.11
$2.99
$5.26
63
10Y EBITDA Exit
$1.22
$3.25
$5.90
64
10Y P/E Exit
$4.92
$12.56
$24.58
59
Earnings-Based
Graham-Dodd
$4.09
$24.95
$34.81
63
Lynch FV
$7.14
$10.20
$13.26
61
PEG = 1.0
$7.14
$10.20
$13.26
57
Multiples
P/E Multiple
$9.93
$13.24
$16.55
63
P/S Multiple
$2.20
$2.93
$3.66
58
P/B Multiple
$7.67
$10.23
$12.79
55
Asset-Based
NCAV (Graham)
$3.86
$5.17
$7.71
54
Growth DCF
Growth DCF
$4.88
$12.78
$23.92
74
Economic Profit
Residual Income
$6.01
$6.26
$6.88
76
Growth Earnings
Growth-Adj P/E
$10.54
$15.05
$19.57
67
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Set up alert →Quality Score breakdown
Overall quality
40/100
Of which business quality 41 · Market factors (momentum, volatility) 27
Profitability
35
Margins and returns on capital today
Quality Growth
39
Are margins and returns improving?
Cashflow
69
Earnings quality: real cash, not paper profit
Fin. Strength
23
Balance sheet, leverage, solvency risk
Investment
14
Disciplined investing over empire-building
Low Volatility
75
Calm price path (market factor)
Momentum
11
Price trend over the last 3–12 months (market factor)
52W Momentum
0
Distance to the 52-week high (market factor)
Net Issuance
61
Share count: buybacks or dilution?
Revenue & earnings trend
Growth Quality ⓘGrowth is valuable only when reinvestment earns attractive returns (Aswath Damodaran): sustainable growth depends on return on capital, reinvestment and efficiency. Basis: total company revenue over the periods shown on the cards (3Y/5Y/all years), not per share, so a merger can show up as a growth jump; per-share earnings growth is in the value-creation card.
81/100
Revenue is growing, but margins or cash flow do not fully confirm the trend.
Revenue growth 1 year
+13.3%
Revenue growth 3 years ⓘMeasures the company's TOTAL revenue from reported annual statements: compound average growth per year (CAGR) from the fiscal year 3, 5 or N years back to the most recent comparable fiscal year. Not per share: buybacks do not change this number, and a merger can appear as a growth jump. Per-share growth (which does include buybacks) is in the value-creation card.
+15.0%
Revenue growth 5 years ⓘMeasures the company's TOTAL revenue from reported annual statements: compound average growth per year (CAGR) from the fiscal year 3, 5 or N years back to the most recent comparable fiscal year. Not per share: buybacks do not change this number, and a merger can appear as a growth jump. Per-share growth (which does include buybacks) is in the value-creation card.
+15.9%
Start year 2020 (pandemic). Over 10 years: +18.1% a year
Revenue growth 11 years ⓘMeasures the company's TOTAL revenue from reported annual statements: compound average growth per year (CAGR) from the fiscal year 3, 5 or N years back to the most recent comparable fiscal year. Not per share: buybacks do not change this number, and a merger can appear as a growth jump. Per-share growth (which does include buybacks) is in the value-creation card.
+18.9%
’14
’15
’16
’17
’19
’20
’21
’22
’23
’24
’25
What shareholders gained per year (last 5 years) ⓘWhat the business itself delivers per year: earnings growth per share plus the dividend yield. This is what you get IF the market keeps valuing the stock the same way: it contains no assumption about the market changing its mind. Computed per share, so buybacks count and a merger does not pass as growth. For a company that pays no dividend it is pure earnings growth per share. Period: earnings growth per share as CAGR over the last 5 reported fiscal years (annual statements), plus the current dividend yield. The start value is the median of the three years around the start, so a single crisis year (a pandemic or a write-down) does not distort the rate.
+6.8%
Earnings growth per share plus dividend.
Earnings per share, growth per year+1.1%
Dividend (yield on the price)5.7%
Profit margin 2020 to 2025 ⓘOperating margin then vs now, from reported annual statements. A falling margin after a boom year is the classic peak-earnings signal: the growth rate then leans on an inflated base.10% → 2%
Growth Forecast
Little optimism in the price
The price assumes less growth than the company has delivered so far and less than analysts expect.
What the price assumes ⓘThis turns our valuation around: instead of asking what the share is worth, it asks what growth the current price requires. It uses the cash the company keeps after all spending (free cash flow), the same discount rate as our models, five years of growth, then slowing evenly to 2 % a year by year ten. Compared with the analysts' sales forecasts extended to the same five years (at least three analysts, for context only, it does not enter the Fair Value): within 3 percentage points counts as "in line" (amber), below that little optimism (green), above that a lot of optimism (red).
+1.6%
Yearly growth needed for the next five years to justify today's price.
What forecasts expect ⓘAnalysts publish sales forecasts for the next two fiscal years. For the years after that, growth slows evenly to 2 % a year by year ten (2 % is the long-run rate our models use). Projected years are marked as such.
+15.7%
Yearly sales growth analysts expect, extended to five years.
After inflation (figures in NZD, New Zealand: IMF forecast 2.3% a year to 2030, 3.0% from 2016 to 2025) that is about −0.7% a year for the price and +13.1% for the forecasts.
Forecast 2026 (sales)+40.4%
Forecast 2027 (sales)+12.1%
Projected 2028 (sales)+10.8%
Projected 2029 (sales)+9.6%
Projected 2030 (sales)+8.3%
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Compare Summerset Group with another stock
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Peer GroupⓘHow this stock ranks against its industry: the green marker is this stock, the band is the typical 25–75% peer range, and the tick is the median.Medical Care Facilities · 241 stocks
Beats the industry median on 8/13 measures
Overall it ranks above its industry peers.
Valuation Multiplesvs Medical Care Facilities median · lower = cheaper
Context: sector, industry, market
- Is the Health Care sector expensive or cheap?
- P/E, EV/EBITDA and margins by industry (reference tables)
- Undervalued stocks: US Stocks
- Valuation of the USA market
Values & ESG
Does this company touch areas you may want to avoid? The classification is inferred from sector and industry.
None of the checked exposures detected
Similar stocks
10 more Medical Care Facilities stocks, each showing price versus our Fair Value estimate.
| Stock | Price | Fair Value | vs Fair Value |
|---|---|---|---|
| HCA Healthcare, Inc HCA | $431.63 | $597.97 | +39% |
| Fresenius SE FRE | €43.64 | €34.49 | −21% |
| Dr. Sulaiman Al Habib Medical Services Group 4013 | 225.00 SAR | 109.45 SAR | −51% |
| Tenet Healthcare Corporation THC | $257.93 | $274.35 | +6% |
| IHH Healthcare Berhad, an investment holding company, 5225 | 8.03 MYR | 4.87 MYR | −39% |
| Apollo Hospitals Enterprise Limited APOLLOHOSP | ₹8,889 | ₹2,908 | −67% |
| Encompass Health Corporation EHC | $123.47 | $94.47 | −23% |
| Fresenius Medical Care AG FMS | $22.27 | $45.84 | +106% |
| DaVita Inc DVA | $178.07 | $215.81 | +21% |
| Aier Eye Hospital Group 300015 | ¥7.91 | ¥10.86 | +37% |
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Frequently asked questions
Is Summerset Group (SMGRF) overvalued or undervalued?
As of Sep 24, 2026, our model estimates a fair value of $10.32 versus a price of $4.29, about +141% upside (undervalued).
What is the fair value of SMGRF?
Our model-based fair value for Summerset Group is $10.32 (as of Sep 24, 2026), built from audited fundamentals. The current price: $4.29.
What is the quality score of SMGRF?
Summerset Group has a Quality Score of 40/100. It measures business quality (profitability, growth, cash flow, balance-sheet strength, investment discipline, share issuance). Market factors such as price momentum and volatility do not enter the number; they are shown separately in the detail view.
What is the price target for Summerset Group (SMGRF)?
Our model-based price target is the fair value of $10.32 (as of Sep 24, 2026) from 18 valuation models. Cautious scenario $6.29, optimistic scenario $12.90. It is a calculation from audited fundamentals, not an analyst target.
What is the Summerset Group stock forecast for 2026?
Our models put fair value at $10.32, about +141% upside versus a price of $4.29 (undervalued). Cautious scenario $6.29, optimistic scenario $12.90. The calculation is refreshed regularly with new filings.
What is the revenue of Summerset Group (SMGRF)?
Summerset Group reported trailing-twelve-month revenue of about 361M NZD (latest available figure, as of Sep 24, 2026).
Does Summerset Group pay a dividend?
Summerset Group currently shows a dividend yield of about 5.71% relative to its recent price (as of Sep 24, 2026).
What growth is priced into Summerset Group (SMGRF)?
For today's price to be fair in a discounted-cash-flow model, Summerset Group would have to grow free cash flow by +1.6 % per year for five years (discount rate 9.8 %, then slowing evenly to 2 % perpetual growth by year ten). Over the last 5 years revenue grew +15.9 % per year. As of Sep 24, 2026.
What discount rate (WACC) does the fair value of SMGRF use?
Our models discount Summerset Group at 9.8 %: a base by market capitalisation (small), damped by beta 0.30, country premium for USA. The same rate applies in all 26 models.
What is a reverse DCF?
A reverse DCF turns the usual calculation around. Instead of deriving a value from assumptions, it takes today's price as given and asks: what free-cash-flow growth would a company have to deliver for exactly this price to be fair? The result is not a forecast but the expectation already priced in. For Summerset Group that is +1.6 % per year a year over ten years, using the same discount rate (9.8 %) and the same formula as our fair value.
How much growth has Summerset Group (SMGRF) delivered so far?
Over the past 5 years revenue at Summerset Group grew +15.9 % a year. The price currently implies +1.6 % per year free-cash-flow growth a year. Comparing the two shows how much confidence is in the price: if it demands more than has been delivered, the business has to accelerate for the maths to work.
How fast is the sector of Summerset Group (SMGRF) growing?
The median revenue growth in the sector is +5.1 % a year. That is the yardstick for the growth priced into Summerset Group (+1.6 % per year a year): it shows whether the expectation is within the usual range or beyond it.
What is the free cash flow yield of Summerset Group (SMGRF)?
The free-cash-flow yield on the price is 17.72 %: that much free cash flow Summerset Group produces per unit of market value. When it exceeds the discount rate of our models (9.8 %), the business already earns more than its cost of capital demands, and the price needs little additional growth.
What is the intrinsic value of Summerset Group (SMGRF)?
Intrinsic value and fair value mean the same thing: what the business is worth on its numbers, independent of the share price. For Summerset Group it is $10.32 per share (as of Sep 24, 2026), against a price of $4.29. It is the blended result of 18 valuation models (cash flow, earnings, asset, dividend).
Is Summerset Group stock overvalued or undervalued in 2026?
As of Sep 24, 2026, SMGRF trades below its calculated fair value: price $4.29, fair value $10.32, a gap of about +141% (undervalued). The calculation is refreshed with each new quarterly report, so the verdict can change during the year.
Is fair value the same as the market price of SMGRF?
No. The price is what the market pays today ($4.29); the fair value is what the company's own numbers justify ($10.32). For Summerset Group the two are $6.03 per share apart. That gap is exactly why we show both numbers side by side.
How much is Summerset Group worth?
The market values Summerset Group at about $1.1B (market capitalisation, as of Sep 24, 2026). Per share that is $4.29; our models calculate a fair value of $10.32 per share.
What do the bullish and bearish scenarios say about SMGRF?
Our models span a range for Summerset Group: cautious scenario $6.29, base $10.32, optimistic $12.90 per share (as of Sep 24, 2026, price $4.29). The range comes from different growth and margin assumptions, not from analyst opinions.
What is the P/E ratio of SMGRF?
Summerset Group trades at a price-to-earnings ratio of 6.9 (as of Sep 24, 2026). A P/E on its own says little: it compares the price with ONE year of profit, while our fair value of $10.32 is built from several models across several years. Other multiples: P/B 0.3, P/S 3.2.
How solid is the balance sheet of Summerset Group (SMGRF)?
Balance-sheet figures for Summerset Group (as of Sep 24, 2026): return on equity 8.3%, debt of 0.59 per unit of equity. They feed the Quality Score of 40/100, which measures business quality independently of the share price.
How far is SMGRF from its 52-week high?
Summerset Group trades at $4.29, about 54% below its 52-week high of $9.24 and at the low of $4.29 (as of Sep 29, 2026). Distance from the high says nothing about value: that is what the fair value of $10.32 is for.
Which stocks are comparable to Summerset Group?
From the same area (Healthcare) we also value HCA Healthcare, Inc, Fresenius SE, Dr. Sulaiman Al Habib Medical Services Group, Tenet Healthcare Corporation, among others. Each of them has its own fair-value calculation on this site using the same models, so the comparison is like for like.
Is Summerset Group stock attractive at the current price?
The data as of Sep 24, 2026: price $4.29, calculated fair value $10.32 (+141%), Quality Score 40/100, from 18 models. Whether that fits your horizon and risk tolerance is your call. We provide the calculation, not investment advice.
How is the fair value of SMGRF calculated?
We run Summerset Group through 18 models from four families: discounted cash flow, earnings models, asset and balance-sheet models, and dividend models. Every model gets the same audited fundamentals; the result is the weighted average of $10.32, with the spread shown as a cautious and an optimistic scenario.
Is it still worth investing in stocks now?
The global stock market currently sits 14.5 % above its aggregate fair value. Summerset Group currently trades 58 % below its own fair value, and the market average says nothing about that. An expensive market is no reason to stay out and no reason to buy everything at once: keep a broad savings plan running, buy single stocks only with money you can do without, and hold part of your money liquid while the market is high. The full picture including sectors is on is it worth investing now.
What is the share price of Summerset Group (SMGRF)?
The closing price on Sep 29, 2026 was $4.29. Our model-based fair value is $10.32, about +141% upside (undervalued). We carry closing prices from our data provider, not a live tick.
What should I pay attention to with Summerset Group right now?
The large discount to fair value meets weak quality (40/100). That raises the risk this is a value trap rather than a bargain. The price is below even our cautious bear case ($6.29). The market is more pessimistic than our downside scenario. A fairly wide model range ($6.29 to $12.90) leaves room in how you read the outcome.
Key figures of Summerset Group
How large is the market capitalisation of Summerset Group (SMGRF)?
The market capitalisation of Summerset Group is $1.1B. The stock-market value of the whole company: share price times number of shares. It is what the market asks for the entire business today.
What is the P/S ratio of Summerset Group (SMGRF)?
The price-to-sales ratio of Summerset Group is 4.98 (P/E × margin). Price to sales: market value relative to yearly revenue. Useful when profit is thin or distorted.
What are the earnings per share of Summerset Group (SMGRF)?
Earnings per share at Summerset Group are $0.6200 (price ÷ EPS = P/E 6.9). Earnings per share over the last twelve months: total profit spread across every single share.
What is the dividend yield of Summerset Group (SMGRF)?
The dividend yield of Summerset Group is 5.7% (payout 39.5%). Yearly dividend relative to the share price. 3% pays 3 per 100 invested. Below: how much of profit is used for it.
What is the net margin of Summerset Group (SMGRF)?
The net margin of Summerset Group is 72.0% (fiscal year 2025). How much of every unit of revenue ends up as profit. 10% means 10 cents of profit per dollar of sales.
What is the return on equity of Summerset Group (SMGRF)?
The return on equity (ROE) of Summerset Group is 8.3% (last twelve months). Profit relative to shareholders' equity, how efficiently the company works with its owners' money.
What is the EBIT return on assets of Summerset Group (SMGRF)?
On an EBIT basis the return on assets of Summerset Group is 0.2% (avg 5y). Operating profit (EBIT) relative to everything the company owns, as a multi-year average. It describes the business model rather than one good or bad year.
What is the operating margin of Summerset Group (SMGRF)?
The operating margin of Summerset Group is 2.7% (last twelve months). Profit from the core business (before interest and taxes) relative to revenue.
How fast is revenue growing at Summerset Group (SMGRF)?
Revenue at Summerset Group is growing +12.4% versus a year earlier (3y avg +15.0%). How much revenue grew versus a year earlier (YoY). The 3-year average next to it puts the single year in context.
How fast are earnings growing at Summerset Group (SMGRF)?
Earnings per share at Summerset Group are growing −44.0% versus a year earlier. How much earnings per share grew versus a year earlier.
How much net debt does Summerset Group (SMGRF) carry?
The net debt of Summerset Group is 2.0B NZD (fiscal year 2025, ≈ 6.0 yrs of FCF). Debt minus cash on hand. The note shows how many years of free cash flow could in theory pay it off.
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