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Smith-Midland Corp (SMID) fair value: what the stock is really worth

As of Sep 24, 2026: fair value of Smith-Midland Corp $21.62, price $24.02, upside -10.0%, quality 62 out of 100. Calculated from audited financials with 26 valuation models and 37 quality factors, updated daily.

  1. Fair value above price? No
  2. Good quality? Yes
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Basic Materials · US · ISIN US8321561032

SM Smith-Midland Corp logo Broad data Sep 23, 2026

Smith-Midland Corp

SMID · US

Overvalued / MonitorQuality is not strong enough to offset the price risk.

!Fair value $21.62 · Overvalued (−10%)
!Quality 62/100
!Mixed Growth (revenue 5y +16.3 %/yr)
!Thin margins · 8.6% net margin (TTM)
✓Low debt · generates free cash flow
!Mixed vs. peers (8/14)
!Moderate moat 57/100
!Weak on valuation: 20 out of 100

What runs behind every stock

69 individual criteria per stock, every one traceable See the method →

Price vs Fair Value

$50.03 $13.16 Fair Value $21.62 Jun 2021 Sep 2026

White line = price, green steps = our fair value per fiscal year, dashed = 300-day average. As of Sep 23, 2026.

How to read this chart

60‑month range $13.16 – $50.03 · fair‑value band $15.69 – $32.41 · the $24.02 price screens above the $21.62 fair value. Green steps = our fair value per fiscal year (point-in-time, no hindsight). 1 fiscal year is left out: there the valuation rested on only a fraction of the usual models. Dashed = 300-day average. As of Sep 23, 2026.

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Company profile

Smith-Midland Corporation invents, develops, manufactures, markets, leases, licenses, sells, and installs various precast concrete products and systems.

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Smith-Midland Corporation invents, develops, manufactures, markets, leases, licenses, sells, and installs various precast concrete products and systems. The company offers SlenderWall lightweight construction panel, a lightweight exterior cladding used for the exterior walls of buildings; Sierra Wall that provides sound and sight barrier for use alongside highways around residential, industrial, and commercial properties; J-J Hooks highway safety barriers, which are used on roadways to separate lanes of traffic in construction work zone or traffic control purposes; and Easi-Set precast building and Easi-Span expandable precast buildings for use in housing communications operations, traffic control systems, and mechanical and electrical stations. It also provides Easi-Set utility vaults used to house equipment, such as cable, telephone, or traffic signal equipment, and for underground storage, as well as manufactures custom-built utility vaults for special needs; SoftSound soundwall panels that absorbs highway noise; Beach Prisms erosion control modules for seawalls and jetties; and H2Out secondary drainage and street level leak detection product for panelized exterior cladding. The company licenses its proprietary products in the United States, Canada, New Zealand, Australia, Belgium, Mexico, and Trinidad. It markets its products through in-house sales force and independent sales representatives; contractors performing public and private construction contracts, such as construction of commercial buildings, public and private roads and highways, airports, and municipal utilities; and federal, state, and local transportation authorities. The company serves construction, highway, utilities, and farming industries. Smith-Midland Corporation was founded in 1960 and is based in Midland, Virginia.

Stock analysis

Smith-Midland Corp (SMID) currently trades at $24.02, while our model-based Fair Value estimate is $21.62, implying the stock looks roughly 11.1% fairly valued today.

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Valuation

Bull case: the Growth Earnings group reads highest at a median of $32.90 per share, and 14 of the 24 models we run sit above the $24.02 price.

Bear case: the Asset-Based group reads lowest at $6.86, and 10 of the 24 models stay below the price. Evidence for this calculation is high.

Scenario range: $15.69 (bear) to $32.41 (bull), the price of $24.02 sits inside it. Bear and bull are the same models on cautious and optimistic assumptions, a range, not a price target.

Quality & growth

The Quality Score stands at 62/100 (solid quality), in the Basic Materials sector.

Mixed Growth: Revenue is growing, but margins or cash flow do not fully confirm the trend.

Smith-Midland Corp reported revenue of $93.4M in FY2025 versus $50.6M in FY2021, a compound +16.6%/yr. Reported net income was $12.5M in FY2025, compounding +13.4%/yr from FY2021.

Key figures

Market cap $127M · P/E ratio 16.5 · P/S ratio 2.20 · EPS (TTM) $1.46 · Net margin 13.4% · Return on equity 14.5% · Return on assets (EBIT) 9.8% · Operating margin 8.5%.

Competitive moat

Our AI-assisted moat analysis scores the competitive advantage at 54 out of 100 (medium confidence).

What moves the price

The share trades about 40% below its 52-week high and at its 52-week low, currently below its 200-day average.

For context, the median of 10 Basic Materials peers we cover trades at −47% fair-value upside, at −10%, SMID screens cheaper than that median.

Fair Value models

Bear $15.69 Fair Value $21.62 Bull $32.41
Model ⓘEach model values the company its own way (discounted cash flow, earnings, assets, dividends). The fair value above is their evidence-weighted blend, not the output of a single model. Based on fiscal year 2025 figures (about 9 months old). Earnings retained since then ($1.07 per share) are deliberately not added. Bear ⓘBear = the cautious scenario: the same model computed with conservative anchors (lower growth, margins and valuation multiples). Together with Bull it frames a plausible valuation range, not a price target.BaseBull ⓘBull = the optimistic scenario: the same model computed with favourable anchors (higher growth, margins and valuation multiples). Together with Bear it frames a plausible valuation range, not a price target. Evidence ⓘEvidence = how well-backed THIS model's estimate is for this stock (0–100): how complete and reliable its input data are, and how well the model fits the company. The final Fair Value is an evidence-weighted blend, so better-evidenced models count more. Green ≥70, amber 50–69, grey below 50.
Highest evidence
FCF DCF $9.87 $13.65 $18.62 81
Growth DCF $9.82 $13.27 $17.56 79
Owner Earnings $11.64 $16.24 $22.26 77
All 24 models by family
DCF Models
FCF DCF $9.87 $13.65 $18.62 81
Owner Earnings $11.64 $16.24 $22.26 77
5Y Revenue Exit $15.17 $25.05 $38.03 72
5Y EBITDA Exit $19.40 $33.20 $49.83 74
5Y P/E Exit $20.39 $35.12 $51.13 70
10Y Revenue Exit $12.25 $19.85 $30.66 66
10Y EBITDA Exit $15.01 $24.77 $38.58 67
10Y P/E Exit $15.56 $25.93 $39.46 63
Earnings-Based
Graham-Dodd $16.03 $58.14 $78.41 64
Lynch FV $13.80 $19.71 $25.62 61
PEG = 1.0 $13.80 $19.71 $25.62 57
EPV $18.32 $20.34 $21.97 74
Multiples
P/E Multiple $30.06 $40.08 $50.10 63
P/S Multiple $19.82 $26.42 $33.03 58
P/B Multiple $23.03 $30.71 $38.39 55
EV/EBIT $35.16 $46.37 $57.59 66
EV/EBITDA $29.63 $39.00 $48.37 67
EV/Revenue $20.02 $27.95 $35.88 54
Asset-Based
NCAV (Graham) $5.12 $6.86 $10.24 54
Growth DCF
Growth DCF $9.82 $13.27 $17.56 79
Rev-Margin DCF $15.17 $24.85 $36.40 72
Economic Profit
Residual Income $12.09 $16.17 $53.27 58
ROIC Compounder $19.44 $23.01 $26.89 72
Growth Earnings
Growth-Adj P/E $23.03 $32.90 $42.77 67

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Quality Score breakdown

Overall quality 62/100

Of which business quality 63 · Market factors (momentum, volatility) 10

Profitability 71
Margins and returns on capital today
Quality Growth 68
Are margins and returns improving?
Cashflow 34
Earnings quality: real cash, not paper profit
Fin. Strength 87
Balance sheet, leverage, solvency risk
Investment 26
Disciplined investing over empire-building
Low Volatility 12
Calm price path (market factor)
Momentum 16
Price trend over the last 3–12 months (market factor)
52W Momentum 0
Distance to the 52-week high (market factor)
Net Issuance 81
Share count: buybacks or dilution?

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Revenue & earnings trend

Growth Quality ⓘGrowth is valuable only when reinvestment earns attractive returns (Aswath Damodaran): sustainable growth depends on return on capital, reinvestment and efficiency. Basis: total company revenue over the periods shown on the cards (3Y/5Y/all years), not per share, so a merger can show up as a growth jump; per-share earnings growth is in the value-creation card. 80/100
Revenue is growing, but margins or cash flow do not fully confirm the trend.
Revenue growth 1 year
+19.0%
Revenue growth 3 years ⓘMeasures the company's TOTAL revenue from reported annual statements: compound average growth per year (CAGR) from the fiscal year 3, 5 or N years back to the most recent comparable fiscal year. Not per share: buybacks do not change this number, and a merger can appear as a growth jump. Per-share growth (which does include buybacks) is in the value-creation card.
+23.1%
Revenue growth 5 years ⓘMeasures the company's TOTAL revenue from reported annual statements: compound average growth per year (CAGR) from the fiscal year 3, 5 or N years back to the most recent comparable fiscal year. Not per share: buybacks do not change this number, and a merger can appear as a growth jump. Per-share growth (which does include buybacks) is in the value-creation card.
+16.3%
Start year 2020 (pandemic). Over 10 years: +12.3% a year
Revenue growth 31 years ⓘMeasures the company's TOTAL revenue from reported annual statements: compound average growth per year (CAGR) from the fiscal year 3, 5 or N years back to the most recent comparable fiscal year. Not per share: buybacks do not change this number, and a merger can appear as a growth jump. Per-share growth (which does include buybacks) is in the value-creation card.
+6.8%
What shareholders gained per year (last 5 years) (mathematically smoothed) ⓘWhat the business itself delivers per year: earnings growth per share plus the dividend yield. This is what you get IF the market keeps valuing the stock the same way: it contains no assumption about the market changing its mind. Computed per share, so buybacks count and a merger does not pass as growth. For a company that pays no dividend it is pure earnings growth per share. Period: earnings growth per share as CAGR over the last 5 reported fiscal years (annual statements), plus the current dividend yield. The start value is the median of the three years around the start, so a single crisis year (a pandemic or a write-down) does not distort the rate. Smoothed = median of all growth paths between the years of the window (trend line on the logarithm of earnings per share): a single extreme year cannot distort the rate. The reported figure stays in the tooltip.
+29.5%
Earnings growth per share plus dividend.
Earnings per share, growth per year+29.5%
Dividend (yield on the price)0.0%
Pace: 5 vs 10 years ⓘTwo data points, not a trend model: earnings growth per share over the last 5 fiscal years against the last 10. Labelled "steady" when both rates are within 3 percentage points of each other, otherwise picking up or flattening. Shown only when ten years of history exist.36% vs 20%, picking up
Profit margin 2020 to 2025 ⓘOperating margin then vs now, from reported annual statements. A falling margin after a boom year is the classic peak-earnings signal: the growth rate then leans on an inflated base.9% → 18%
2025 sits 1,448% above its own trend. The rate follows the median trend of the last 5 years, not that single year.
Start year 2020 (pandemic)

Growth Forecast

A lot of optimism in the price
The price assumes more growth than the company has delivered so far.
What the price assumes ⓘThis turns our valuation around: instead of asking what the share is worth, it asks what growth the current price requires. It uses the cash the company keeps after all spending (free cash flow), the same discount rate as our models, five years of growth, then slowing evenly to 2 % a year by year ten. Compared with the analysts' sales forecasts extended to the same five years (at least three analysts, for context only, it does not enter the Fair Value): within 3 percentage points counts as "in line" (amber), below that little optimism (green), above that a lot of optimism (red).
+25.5%
Yearly growth needed for the next five years to justify today's price.
What forecasts expect
n/a
No analyst forecast available.
After inflation (USA: IMF forecast 2.4% a year to 2030, 3.1% from 2016 to 2025) that is about +22.5% a year for the price.

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Peer GroupⓘHow this stock ranks against its industry: the green marker is this stock, the band is the typical 25–75% peer range, and the tick is the median.Building Materials · 258 stocks

Beats the industry median on 8/14 measures
A mixed picture versus its industry peers.
Valuation
Quality Score 62 · Top 25%
Fair Value upside −10% · Below median
Profitability
Return on equity (TTM) 15% · Top 25%
Return on assets 8% · Top 25%
Net margin (TTM) 9% · Above median
Operating margin (TTM) 9% · Above median
Growth and dividend
Revenue growth −11% · Bottom 25%
Balance sheet
Debt / equity 0.07× · Below median

Valuation Multiplesvs Building Materials median · lower = cheaper

P/E (TTM) 16.5× · Cheaper than median
P/B 2.35× · Priciest 25%
P/S (TTM) 1.42× · Pricier than median
P/FCF 25.7× · Priciest 25%
EV/EBITDA 8.3× · Pricier than median
PEG 1.20× · Cheaper than median

Strength profile in five axes (Snowflake)

VALUEFUTUREPASTHEALTHDIVIDEND
This stock
VALUEFUTUREPASTHEALTHDIVIDEND
Sector peers
VALUE (fair-value potential)20 · sector 26
FUTURE (revenue growth)0 · sector 2
PAST (return on equity)58 · sector 15
HEALTH (low debt)97 · sector 92
DIVIDEND (yield)0 · sector 46

Context: sector, industry, market

Values & ESG

Does this company touch areas you may want to avoid? The classification is inferred from sector and industry.

None of the checked exposures detected

Similar stocks

10 more Building Materials stocks, each showing price versus our Fair Value estimate.

Stock Price Fair Value vs Fair Value
CRH plc CRH $88.04 $74.79 −15%
Holcim AG HOLN CHF 66.32 CHF 33.05 −50%
Vulcan Materials Company VMC $247.87 $131.48 −47%
UltraTech Cement Limited ULTRACEMCO ₹11,155 ₹4,719 −58%
Martin Marietta Materials, Inc MLM $499.34 $245.83 −51%
China Jushi Co 600176 ¥45.62 ¥29.50 −35%
Amrize AG AMRZ $39.00 $34.66 −11%
Grasim Industries Limited GRASIM ₹3,189 ₹1,245 −61%
CEMEX, S.A. CX $10.24 $25.27 +147%
James Hardie Industries plc JHX A$38.17 A$7.93 −79%

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Frequently asked questions

Is Smith-Midland Corp (SMID) overvalued or undervalued?
As of Sep 23, 2026, our model estimates a fair value of $21.62 versus a price of $24.02, about −10% upside (fairly valued).
What is the fair value of SMID?
Our model-based fair value for Smith-Midland Corp is $21.62 (as of Sep 23, 2026), built from audited fundamentals. The current price: $24.02.
What is the quality score of SMID?
Smith-Midland Corp has a Quality Score of 62/100. It measures business quality (profitability, growth, cash flow, balance-sheet strength, investment discipline, share issuance). Market factors such as price momentum and volatility do not enter the number; they are shown separately in the detail view.
What is the price target for Smith-Midland Corp (SMID)?
Our model-based price target is the fair value of $21.62 (as of Sep 23, 2026) from 24 valuation models. Cautious scenario $15.69, optimistic scenario $32.41. It is a calculation from audited fundamentals, not an analyst target.
What is the Smith-Midland Corp stock forecast for 2026?
Our models put fair value at $21.62, about −10% upside versus a price of $24.02 (fairly valued). Cautious scenario $15.69, optimistic scenario $32.41. The calculation is refreshed regularly with new filings.
What is the revenue of Smith-Midland Corp (SMID)?
Smith-Midland Corp reported trailing-twelve-month revenue of about $89.5M (latest available figure, as of Sep 23, 2026).
What growth is priced into Smith-Midland Corp (SMID)?
For today's price to be fair in a discounted-cash-flow model, Smith-Midland Corp would have to grow free cash flow by +25.5 % per year for five years (discount rate 15.1 %, then slowing evenly to 2 % perpetual growth by year ten). Over the last 5 years revenue grew +16.3 % per year. As of Sep 23, 2026.
What discount rate (WACC) does the fair value of SMID use?
Our models discount Smith-Midland Corp at 15.1 %: a base by market capitalisation (micro), damped by beta 1.74, country premium for USA. The same rate applies in all 26 models.
What is a reverse DCF?
A reverse DCF turns the usual calculation around. Instead of deriving a value from assumptions, it takes today's price as given and asks: what free-cash-flow growth would a company have to deliver for exactly this price to be fair? The result is not a forecast but the expectation already priced in. For Smith-Midland Corp that is +25.5 % per year a year over ten years, using the same discount rate (15.1 %) and the same formula as our fair value.
How much growth has Smith-Midland Corp (SMID) delivered so far?
Over the past 5 years revenue at Smith-Midland Corp grew +16.3 % a year. The price currently implies +25.5 % per year free-cash-flow growth a year. Comparing the two shows how much confidence is in the price: if it demands more than has been delivered, the business has to accelerate for the maths to work.
How fast is the sector of Smith-Midland Corp (SMID) growing?
The median revenue growth in the sector is +3.3 % a year. That is the yardstick for the growth priced into Smith-Midland Corp (+25.5 % per year a year): it shows whether the expectation is within the usual range or beyond it.
What is the free cash flow yield of Smith-Midland Corp (SMID)?
The free-cash-flow yield on the price is 3.89 %: that much free cash flow Smith-Midland Corp produces per unit of market value. When it exceeds the discount rate of our models (15.1 %), the business already earns more than its cost of capital demands, and the price needs little additional growth.
What is the intrinsic value of Smith-Midland Corp (SMID)?
Intrinsic value and fair value mean the same thing: what the business is worth on its numbers, independent of the share price. For Smith-Midland Corp it is $21.62 per share (as of Sep 23, 2026), against a price of $24.02. It is the blended result of 24 valuation models (cash flow, earnings, asset, dividend).
Is Smith-Midland Corp stock overvalued or undervalued in 2026?
As of Sep 23, 2026, SMID trades above its calculated fair value: price $24.02, fair value $21.62, a gap of about −10% (fairly valued). The calculation is refreshed with each new quarterly report, so the verdict can change during the year.
Is fair value the same as the market price of SMID?
No. The price is what the market pays today ($24.02); the fair value is what the company's own numbers justify ($21.62). For Smith-Midland Corp the two are $2.40 per share apart. That gap is exactly why we show both numbers side by side.
How much is Smith-Midland Corp worth?
The market values Smith-Midland Corp at about $127M (market capitalisation, as of Sep 23, 2026). Per share that is $24.02; our models calculate a fair value of $21.62 per share.
What do the bullish and bearish scenarios say about SMID?
Our models span a range for Smith-Midland Corp: cautious scenario $15.69, base $21.62, optimistic $32.41 per share (as of Sep 23, 2026, price $24.02). The range comes from different growth and margin assumptions, not from analyst opinions.
What is the P/E ratio of SMID?
Smith-Midland Corp trades at a price-to-earnings ratio of 16.5 (as of Sep 23, 2026). A P/E on its own says little: it compares the price with ONE year of profit, while our fair value of $21.62 is built from several models across several years. Other multiples: PEG 1.2, P/B 2.4, P/S 1.4, EV/EBITDA 8.3.
What is the PEG ratio of SMID?
The PEG ratio of Smith-Midland Corp is 1.20 (P/E divided by earnings growth, as of Sep 23, 2026). That is above 1, so the growth is already paid for in the price.
How solid is the balance sheet of Smith-Midland Corp (SMID)?
Balance-sheet figures for Smith-Midland Corp (as of Sep 23, 2026): return on equity 14.5%, debt of 0.07 per unit of equity. They feed the Quality Score of 62/100, which measures business quality independently of the share price.
How far is SMID from its 52-week high?
Smith-Midland Corp trades at $24.02, about 40% below its 52-week high of $40.05 and at the low of $24.02 (as of Sep 24, 2026). Distance from the high says nothing about value: that is what the fair value of $21.62 is for.
Which stocks are comparable to Smith-Midland Corp?
From the same area (Basic Materials) we also value CRH plc, Holcim AG, Vulcan Materials Company, UltraTech Cement Limited, among others. Each of them has its own fair-value calculation on this site using the same models, so the comparison is like for like.
Is Smith-Midland Corp stock attractive at the current price?
The data as of Sep 23, 2026: price $24.02, calculated fair value $21.62 (−10%), Quality Score 62/100, from 24 models. Whether that fits your horizon and risk tolerance is your call. We provide the calculation, not investment advice.
How is the fair value of SMID calculated?
We run Smith-Midland Corp through 24 models from four families: discounted cash flow, earnings models, asset and balance-sheet models, and dividend models. Every model gets the same audited fundamentals; the result is the weighted average of $21.62, with the spread shown as a cautious and an optimistic scenario.
Is it still worth investing in stocks now?
The global stock market currently sits 14.0 % above its aggregate fair value. Smith-Midland Corp itself currently trades above fair value. An expensive market is no reason to stay out and no reason to buy everything at once: keep a broad savings plan running, buy single stocks only with money you can do without, and hold part of your money liquid while the market is high. The full picture including sectors is on is it worth investing now.
What is the share price of Smith-Midland Corp (SMID)?
The closing price on Sep 24, 2026 was $24.02. Our model-based fair value is $21.62, about −10% upside (fairly valued). We carry closing prices from our data provider, not a live tick.
What should I pay attention to with Smith-Midland Corp right now?
The price sits close to our fair value, market and models broadly agree here, little valuation tension. A fairly wide model range ($15.69 to $32.41) leaves room in how you read the outcome.
Where does the earnings growth of Smith-Midland Corp (SMID) come from?
Earnings per share at Smith-Midland Corp grew +15.5 % a year from 2015 to 2025. Broken into its drivers: revenue per share +9.2 %, EBIT margin +4.0 %, tax rate +1.5 %, residual (interest, one-offs) +0.3 %. The four rates multiply to the earnings growth rate, they do not add up. Start and end are three-year averages so a single exceptional year does not distort the result.

Key figures of Smith-Midland Corp

How large is the market capitalisation of Smith-Midland Corp (SMID)?
The market capitalisation of Smith-Midland Corp is $127M. The stock-market value of the whole company: share price times number of shares. It is what the market asks for the entire business today.
What is the P/S ratio of Smith-Midland Corp (SMID)?
The price-to-sales ratio of Smith-Midland Corp is 2.20 (P/E × margin). Price to sales: market value relative to yearly revenue. Useful when profit is thin or distorted.
What are the earnings per share of Smith-Midland Corp (SMID)?
Earnings per share at Smith-Midland Corp are $1.46 (price ÷ EPS = P/E 16.5). Earnings per share over the last twelve months: total profit spread across every single share.
What is the net margin of Smith-Midland Corp (SMID)?
The net margin of Smith-Midland Corp is 13.4% (fiscal year 2025). How much of every unit of revenue ends up as profit. 10% means 10 cents of profit per dollar of sales.
What is the return on equity of Smith-Midland Corp (SMID)?
The return on equity (ROE) of Smith-Midland Corp is 14.5% (last twelve months). Profit relative to shareholders' equity, how efficiently the company works with its owners' money.
What is the EBIT return on assets of Smith-Midland Corp (SMID)?
On an EBIT basis the return on assets of Smith-Midland Corp is 9.8% (avg 5y). Operating profit (EBIT) relative to everything the company owns, as a multi-year average. It describes the business model rather than one good or bad year.
What is the operating margin of Smith-Midland Corp (SMID)?
The operating margin of Smith-Midland Corp is 8.5% (last twelve months). Profit from the core business (before interest and taxes) relative to revenue.
How fast is revenue growing at Smith-Midland Corp (SMID)?
Revenue at Smith-Midland Corp is growing −10.8% versus a year earlier (3y avg +23.1%). How much revenue grew versus a year earlier (YoY). The 3-year average next to it puts the single year in context.
How fast are earnings growing at Smith-Midland Corp (SMID)?
Earnings per share at Smith-Midland Corp are growing −66.9% versus a year earlier. How much earnings per share grew versus a year earlier.
How much net cash does Smith-Midland Corp (SMID) hold?
Smith-Midland Corp holds more cash than debt, $7.3M net (fiscal year 2025). The company holds more cash than debt, a safety cushion.
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