Smiths Group (SMIN) Fair Value & Analysis
Industrials · GB · Market cap 7.6B GBX
Fair value as of: Jul 18, 2026
From 25 valuation models · updated 20 days ago
Fair value updated Jul 18, 2026, revised from £18.64 to £18.85 (+1.1%) since Jun 24, 2026. Share price +6.2% over the past month.
A solid business, but screening 26% overvalued on our models.
What matters now
- Solid but not exceptional quality (68/100) and above fair value, neither a clear bargain nor a standout compounder.
- A fairly wide model range (£12.53 to £25.86) leaves room in how you read the outcome.
Price vs Fair Value (5 years)
White line = price, green steps = our fair value per fiscal year, dashed = 300-day average. As of Jul 18, 2026.
How to read this chart
60‑month range £11.51 – £26.10 · fair‑value band £12.53 – £25.86 · the £25.61 price screens above the £18.85 fair value. Green steps = our fair value per fiscal year (point-in-time, no hindsight). Dashed = 300-day average. As of Jul 18, 2026.
Analysis
Smiths Group (SMIN) currently trades at £25.61, while our model-based Fair Value estimate is £18.85, implying the stock looks roughly 26.4% overvalued today. We read business quality at 68/100 (solid quality), in the Industrials sector. Bear case: priced above our estimate, the market already discounts strong expectations. Bull case: above-average quality can justify a premium, the entry price still matters most (evidence: high).
Over the trailing twelve months, Smiths Group generated revenue of £2.9B at a net margin of 8.7%. Revenue declined 1.0% year over year. It earns a return on equity of 12.5%. Net debt stands at £472M. Fundamentals as of Jul 18, 2026
Our scenario range runs from £12.53 (bear case) to £25.86 (bull case); at £25.61, the current price sits within that range. Bear and bull are the same models run on conservative and optimistic assumptions (margins, growth, valuation multiples), so a plausible valuation range, not a price target. For context, the median of 10 Industrials peers we cover trades at -48% fair-value upside, at -26%, SMIN screens cheaper than that median.
Fair Value models
Each model estimates fair value its own way; the Fair Value above is the evidence-weighted blend. Evidence (0–100) measures how completely this model’s inputs are available: well-fed models carry more weight in the blend. The spread across models is intentional, each one stresses a different value driver; dividend models, for instance, come out structurally low when payout is small.
All 25 models by family
Widest divergence: DCF Models (£17.12) versus Asset-Based (£4.60). Highest evidence: Growth DCF (80).
Key figures & financial health
More key figures
Figures from reported company fundamentals · as of Jul 18, 2026. TTM = trailing twelve months.
Quality Score breakdown
Of which business quality 65 · Market factors (momentum, volatility) 65
Non-valuation factor families (profitability, growth, cashflow, financial strength, momentum …), each academically grounded. Valuation itself sits in the Fair Value and is deliberately excluded here to avoid double-counting.
About the company
Smiths Group plc operates as an industrial technology company in Americas, Europe, the Asia Pacific, and internationally. The company operates through four segments: John Crane, Smiths Detection, Flex-Tek, and Smiths Interconnect.
Full company description
Smiths Group plc operates as an industrial technology company in Americas, Europe, the Asia Pacific, and internationally. The company operates through four segments: John Crane, Smiths Detection, Flex-Tek, and Smiths Interconnect. The John Crane business offers mechanical seals, seal support systems, power transmission couplings, and specialized filtration systems. The Flex-Tek business offers engineered components, flexible hosing, and rigid tubing that heat and move fluids and gases. The Smiths Detection business provides sensors and systems that detect and identify explosives, narcotics, weapons, chemical agents, biohazards, and contraband. The Smiths Interconnect business provides specialized electronic and radio frequency board-level and waveguide devices, connectors, cables, test sockets, and sub-systems used in secure connectivity applications. It serves general industrial, safety and security, energy, and aerospace markets. The company was formerly known as Smiths Industries and changed its name to Smiths Group plc in 2000. Smiths Group plc was founded in 1851 and is headquartered in London, the United Kingdom.
Company description, as reported by the company or data provider.
Revenue & earnings trend
FY2021 – FY2025 · reported fiscal years
Smiths Group reported revenue of £2.9B in FY2025 versus £2.4B in FY2021, a compound +4.9%/yr. Reported net income was £292M in FY2025, compounding +16.8%/yr from FY2021.
SMIN screens 26% overvalued. Compare with GE Vernova Inc →
Peer Group
Specialty Industrial Machinery · 807 stocks
How this stock ranks against its industry: the green marker is this stock, the band is the typical 25–75% peer range, and the tick is the median.
Valuation Multiples vs Specialty Industrial Machinery median · lower = cheaper
Snowflake
Five quick dimensions, each 0 to 100: VALUE (fair-value potential), FUTURE (revenue growth), PAST (return on equity), HEALTH (low debt), DIVIDEND (yield). Green = this stock, grey = typical sector peer.
VALUE 0: the price sits above our fair-value range.
Insider activity: 45/100
Values & ESG
Does this company touch areas you may want to avoid? The classification is inferred from sector and industry.
ESG scores are not available for this stock yet. Values and ESG data are contextual and can differ between providers.
Similar stocks
10 more Specialty Industrial Machinery stocks, each showing price versus our Fair Value estimate (as of Jul 18, 2026).
| Stock | Price | Fair Value | vs Fair Value |
|---|---|---|---|
| GE Vernova Inc 1GEV | €967.60 | €212.97 | -78% |
| 1SIE 1SIE | €284.30 | €122.46 | -57% |
| SMNS SMNS | C$31.76 | C$22.68 | -29% |
| Eaton Corporation ETN | $407.28 | $171.92 | -58% |
| Atlas Copco AB ATCOA | kr 195.15 | kr 112.59 | -42% |
| Sandvik AB SAND | kr 384.10 | kr 193.01 | -50% |
| Doosan Enerbility Co 034020 | 76,400 KRW | 7,938 KRW | -90% |
| Zhejiang Sanhua Intelligent Controls Co 002050 | ¥43.20 | ¥22.68 | -48% |
| Vestas Wind Systems A/S VWS | kr 178.10 | kr 124.54 | -30% |
| NARI Technology Co 600406 | ¥22.19 | ¥18.71 | -16% |
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How we calculate Fair Value
Each company is valued through a stack of independent intrinsic-value models (DCF variants, residual-income, multiples and more), blended into one family-balanced consensus and weighted by how much trustworthy data backs it. A separate quality layer scores the fundamentals. Every input is real reported data, nothing guessed.
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