Synlait Milk Limited (SMLKF) Fair Value & Analysis

Consumer Defensive · US · Market cap $586M

Below-average quality, and screening another 86% overvalued on our models.

What matters now

• The price sits above even our optimistic bull case ($0.2380). The favourable scenario is already priced in.
• Weak quality (44/100) and above fair value at the same time, the margin of safety is missing on both counts.
• The model range is unusually wide ($0.0425 to $0.2380). The outcome hinges heavily on assumptions, so read the point estimate with caution.

Price vs Fair Value (5 years)

White line = price, green steps = our fair value per fiscal year, dashed = 300-day average. As of Jul 18, 2026.

How to read this chart

57‑month range $0.9710 – $8.09 · fair‑value band $0.0425 – $0.2380 · the $0.9710 price screens above the $0.1360 fair value. Dashed = 300-day average. As of Jul 18, 2026.

Full chart & analysis →

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Analysis

Synlait Milk Limited (SMLKF) currently trades at $0.9710, while our model-based Fair Value estimate is $0.1360, implying the stock looks roughly 86.0% overvalued today. The Quality Score stands at 44/100 (below-average quality), in the Consumer Defensive sector. Bear case: priced above our estimate, the market already discounts strong expectations. Bull case: above-average quality can justify a premium, the entry price still matters most (evidence: medium).

Over the trailing twelve months, Synlait Milk Limited generated revenue of $1.8B at a net margin of -6.9%. Revenue declined 0.2% year over year. It earns a return on equity of -17.4%. Net debt stands at $180M. Fundamentals as of Jul 18, 2026

Our scenario range runs from $0.0425 (bear case) to $0.2380 (bull case); at $0.9710, the current price sits above that range. Bear and bull are the same models run on conservative and optimistic assumptions (margins, growth, valuation multiples), so a plausible valuation range, not a price target. The share trades near its 52-week high, currently above its 200-day average. For context, the median of 10 Consumer Defensive peers we cover trades at -3% fair-value upside, at -86%, SMLKF screens richer than that median.

Fair Value models

Each model estimates fair value its own way; the Fair Value above is the evidence-weighted blend. Evidence (0–100) measures how completely this model’s inputs are available: well-fed models carry more weight in the blend. The spread across models is intentional, each one stresses a different value driver; dividend models, for instance, come out structurally low when payout is small.

Widest divergence: Growth DCF ($0.8800) versus Asset-Based ($0.1300). Highest evidence: Growth DCF (80).

Key figures & financial health

Quality Score breakdown

About the company

Synlait Milk Limited, together with its subsidiaries, manufactures, processes, and sells dairy and non-dairy products in China, rest of Asia, the Middle East, Africa, New Zealand, Australia, and internationally. It operates through Synlait and Dairyworks segments.

Full company description

Synlait Milk Limited, together with its subsidiaries, manufactures, processes, and sells dairy and non-dairy products in China, rest of Asia, the Middle East, Africa, New Zealand, Australia, and internationally. It operates through Synlait and Dairyworks segments. The company offers milk powder, milk powder-related products, fresh milk, ultra heat treatment milk and cream, cheese, and butter; skim milk powders; nutritional products for early life and adults comprising consumer-ready powders, base powders, ready-to-drink milk beverages, ingredients, and finished consumer-ready products; drinking yoghurts; specialized ingredients, such as lactoferrin; and anhydrous milk fat for foodservice applications. It sells its products under the Dairyworks, Rolling Meadow, Alpine, Pams, and Value brands. The company serves bakeries, cafés, and beverage chains; and manufacturers. It exports its products. Synlait Milk Limited was founded in 2000 and is headquartered in Rakaia, New Zealand.

Company description, as reported by the company or data provider.

Revenue & earnings trend

FY2021 – FY2025 · reported fiscal years

Synlait Milk Limited reported revenue of $1.8B in FY2025 versus $1.4B in FY2021, a compound +7.5%/yr. Reported net income was −$23.4M in FY2025.

SMLKF screens 86% overvalued. Compare with Nestlé India Limited →

Peer Group

Packaged Foods · 653 stocks

How this stock ranks against its industry: the green marker is this stock, the band is the typical 25–75% peer range, and the tick is the median.

Valuation Multiples vs Packaged Foods median · lower = cheaper

Snowflake

Five quick dimensions, each 0 to 100: VALUE (fair-value potential), FUTURE (revenue growth), PAST (return on equity), HEALTH (low debt), DIVIDEND (yield). Green = this stock, grey = typical sector peer.

VALUE 0: the price sits above our fair-value range.

Values & ESG

Does this company touch areas you may want to avoid? The classification is inferred from sector and industry.

ESG scores are not available for this stock yet. Values and ESG data are contextual and can differ between providers.

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Frequently asked questions

How we calculate Fair Value

Each company is valued through a stack of independent intrinsic-value models (DCF variants, residual-income, multiples and more), blended into one family-balanced consensus and weighted by how much trustworthy data backs it. A separate quality layer scores the fundamentals. Every input is real reported data, nothing guessed.