Sumitomo Metal Mining Co Ltd (SMMYY) fair value: what the stock is really worth
As of Oct 22, 2026: fair value (intrinsic value) of Sumitomo Metal Mining Co Ltd stock $10.03, price $12.64, upside -20.6%, quality 59 out of 100. Rating: overvalued. Calculated from audited financials with 26 valuation models and 37 quality factors, updated daily.
69 individual criteria per stock, every one traceableSee the method →
Price vs Fair Value
White line = price, green steps = our fair value per fiscal year, dashed = 300-day average. As of Oct 22, 2026.
How to read this chart
60‑month range $3.79 – $19.33 · fair‑value band $5.59 – $16.60 · the $12.64 price screens above the $10.03 fair value. Green steps = our fair value per fiscal year (point-in-time, no hindsight). Dashed = 300-day average. As of Oct 22, 2026.
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Sumitomo Metal Mining Co., Ltd., together with its subsidiaries, engages in the resource development, manufacture, and sale of non-ferrous metal products in Japan and internationally. It operates through Resource, Smelting, and Material segments.
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The company is involved in the development and operation of the Hishikari Mine and other mines; smelting and refining business, which provides metal products, such as copper, nickel and cobalt, silver, platinum, rhodium, ruthenium, palladium, slag sand, copper sulfate, selenium, gypsum, sulfuric acid, and green sand, as well as gold and precious metals, rolled copper foil, copper and brass strips, tin plated copper and brass strips, and iron contained pellets; and develops and produces battery materials.
It also produces battery cathode material for vehicles; lithium tantalate and lithium niobate for communication devices; cesium tungsten oxide, other near infrared ray absorbing materials, and thick film pastes; copper-clad polyimide films and printed wiring boards; silicon-carbide semiconductor; and automobile exhaust gas purification catalysts, chemical catalysts, and hydrotreating catalysts.
In addition, the company engages in the water and precious metals recycling; water treatment and environmental improvement operations; and environmental preservation; sterilization, disinfection, and polymer material modification services for medical devices, non-woven fabrics and hygienic materials, laboratory and clinical testing equipment, containers, food packaging materials, pharmaceutical, cosmetic, and herbal medicine materials.
Further, it is involved in the coastal shipping, port transport, in-plant logistics, and land transportation. The company was formerly known as Seika Kogyo (Mining) Co., Ltd. and changed its name to Sumitomo Metal Mining Co., Ltd. in June 1952.
Sumitomo Metal Mining Co., Ltd. was founded in 1590 and is headquartered in Tokyo, Japan.
Stock analysis
Sumitomo Metal Mining Co Ltd (SMMYY) currently trades at $12.64, while our model-based Fair Value estimate is $10.03, 20.6% below the price, so the stock looks overvalued today.
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Valuation
Bull case: the Growth Earnings group reads highest at a median of $17.29 per share, and 7 of the 26 models we run sit above the $12.64 price.
Bear case: the Growth DCF group reads lowest at $1.74, and 19 of the 26 models stay below the price. Data coverage for this calculation is high.
Scenario range: $5.59 (bear) to $16.60 (bull), the price of $12.64 sits inside it. Bear and bull are the same models on cautious and optimistic assumptions, a range, not a price target.
Quality & growth
The Quality Score stands at 59/100 (solid quality), in the Basic Materials sector.
Expensive Growth: The company is growing, but growth may require heavy reinvestment or weak cash conversion.
Sumitomo Metal Mining Co Ltd ADR reported revenue of ¥1.8T in FY2026 versus ¥1.3T in FY2022, a compound +10.0%/yr. Reported net income was ¥187B in FY2026, compounding −9.7%/yr from FY2022.
Key figures
Market cap $13.6B Large · P/E ratio 8.9 · P/S ratio 0.90 · EPS (TTM) $1.42 · Dividend yield 2.7% · Net margin 10.1% · Return on equity 11.7% · Return on assets (EBIT) 4.9%.
Competitive moat
Our AI-assisted moat analysis scores the competitive advantage at 49 out of 100 (low confidence).
What moves the price
The share trades about 35% below its 52-week high and 80% above its 52-week low, currently below its 200-day average.
For context, the median of 10 Basic Materials peers we cover trades at 10% fair-value upside, at −21%, SMMYY screens richer than that median.
Fair Value models
Bear$5.59Fair Value $10.03Bull$16.60
Price $12.64 · Upside -20.6%
Model ⓘEach model values the company its own way (discounted cash flow, earnings, assets, dividends). The fair value above starts from their evidence-weighted blend, not from a single model. In cyclical trough or peak years, after dilution or a stock split it is adjusted afterwards, so it can sit above or below the models. Based on fiscal year 2026 figures (about 7 months old). Earnings retained since then ($0.8014 per share) are deliberately not added.Bear ⓘBear = the cautious scenario: the same model computed with conservative anchors (lower growth, margins and valuation multiples). Together with Bull it frames a plausible valuation range, not a price target.BaseBull ⓘBull = the optimistic scenario: the same model computed with favourable anchors (higher growth, margins and valuation multiples). Together with Bear it frames a plausible valuation range, not a price target. If a model's bull case is above four times its base value, the table shows that limit with a > sign (like the overall Bull above): beyond it no assumption holds.Coverage ⓘCoverage = how well-backed THIS model's estimate is for this stock (0–100): how complete and reliable its input data are, and how well the model fits the company. The final Fair Value is an evidence-weighted blend, so better-evidenced models count more. Green ≥70, amber 50–69, grey below 50.
Growth Quality ⓘGrowth is valuable only when reinvestment earns attractive returns (Aswath Damodaran): sustainable growth depends on return on capital, reinvestment and efficiency. Basis: total company revenue over the periods shown on the cards (3Y/5Y/all years), not per share, so a merger can show up as a growth jump; per-share earnings growth is in the value-creation card.62/100
The company is growing, but growth may require heavy reinvestment or weak cash conversion.
Revenue growth 1 year
+15.9%
Revenue growth 3 years ⓘMeasures the company's TOTAL revenue from reported annual statements: compound average growth per year (CAGR) from the fiscal year 3, 5 or N years back to the most recent comparable fiscal year. Not per share: buybacks do not change this number, and a merger can appear as a growth jump. Per-share growth (which does include buybacks) is in the value-creation card.
+9.1%
Revenue growth 5 years ⓘMeasures the company's TOTAL revenue from reported annual statements: compound average growth per year (CAGR) from the fiscal year 3, 5 or N years back to the most recent comparable fiscal year. Not per share: buybacks do not change this number, and a merger can appear as a growth jump. Per-share growth (which does include buybacks) is in the value-creation card.
+14.8%
Start year 2021 (pandemic). Over 10 years: +8.0% a year
Revenue growth 26 years ⓘMeasures the company's TOTAL revenue from reported annual statements: compound average growth per year (CAGR) from the fiscal year 3, 5 or N years back to the most recent comparable fiscal year. Not per share: buybacks do not change this number, and a merger can appear as a growth jump. Per-share growth (which does include buybacks) is in the value-creation card.
+6.5%
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What shareholders gained per year (last 5 years), in JPY (mathematically smoothed) ⓘWhat the business itself delivers per year: earnings growth per share plus the dividend yield. This is what you get IF the market keeps valuing the stock the same way: it contains no assumption about the market changing its mind. Computed per share, so buybacks count and a merger does not pass as growth. For a company that pays no dividend it is pure earnings growth per share. Period: earnings growth per share as CAGR over the last 5 reported fiscal years (annual statements), plus the current dividend yield. The start value is the median of the three years around the start, so a single crisis year (a pandemic or a write-down) does not distort the rate. Smoothed = median of all growth paths between the years of the window (trend line on the logarithm of earnings per share): a single extreme year cannot distort the rate. The reported figure stays in the tooltip. Measured in JPY: this currency has depreciated against the euro and dollar over the long run, so part of the nominal rate is currency erosion that never reaches a EUR/USD investor.
+33.0%
Earnings growth per share plus dividend.
Earnings per share, growth per year+30.3%
Dividend (yield on the price)2.7%
Pace: 5 vs 10 years ⓘTwo data points, not a trend model: earnings growth per share over the last 5 fiscal years against the last 10. Labelled "steady" when both rates are within 3 percentage points of each other, otherwise picking up or flattening. Shown only when ten years of history exist.51.8% vs 25.0%, picking up
Profit margin 2021 to 2026 ⓘOperating margin then vs now, from reported annual statements. A falling margin after a boom year is the classic peak-earnings signal: the growth rate then leans on an inflated base.11% → 11%
2026 sits 375% above its own trend. The rate follows the median trend of the last 5 years, not that single year.
Pace: the 5-year rate starts in 2021 (pandemic)
Growth Forecast
A lot of optimism in the price
The price assumes more growth than the company has delivered so far and more than analysts expect.
What the price assumes ⓘThis turns our valuation around: instead of asking what the share is worth, it asks what growth the current price requires. It uses the cash the company keeps after all spending (free cash flow), the same discount rate as our models, five years of growth, then slowing evenly to 2 % a year by year ten. Compared with the analysts' sales forecasts extended to the same five years (at least three analysts, for context only, it does not enter the Fair Value): within 3 percentage points counts as "in line" (amber), below that little optimism (green), above that a lot of optimism (red).
+48.0%
Yearly growth needed for the next five years to justify today's price.
What forecasts expect ⓘAnalysts publish sales forecasts for the next two fiscal years. For the years after that, growth slows evenly to 2 % a year by year ten (2 % is the long-run rate our models use). Projected years are marked as such.
+3.3%
Yearly sales growth analysts expect, extended to five years.
After inflation (figures in JPY, Japan: IMF forecast 2.1% a year to 2030, 1.3% from 2016 to 2025) that is about +44.9% a year for the price and +1.2% for the forecasts.
News mood ⓘNews mood, the average tone of recent news (75 articles), rated against how stocks are usually covered. 🚀 Hype = unusually upbeat · 🙂 Positive = above average · 😐 Neutral = typical · 🙁 Negative = below average · 😨 Very negative = unusually downbeat. It reflects the tone of coverage, not our valuation.Neutral
Recent news coverage is roughly neutral, about typical for how stocks are covered.
AI conclusion: The business gains from its advance into higher-value silicon carbide substrates alongside core operations, yet remains limited by weak pricing power and ongoing exposure to metal price swings in its mining activities.
Main risk: Central exposure to metal price swings in mining and refining would directly hit revenues and margins across the commodity-heavy business model.
Sumitomo Metal Mining has developed the world's first 12-inch bonded silicon carbide substrate for power semiconductors and begun sample shipments to manufacturers. This builds on its materials business alongside core mining and refining. With exposure to metal price swings still central, does the push into higher-value substrates create more upside than the commodity side limits?
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Peer GroupⓘHow this stock ranks against its industry: the green marker is this stock, the band is the typical 25–75% peer range, and the tick is the median.Other Industrial Metals & Mining · 377 stocks
Beats the industry median on 12/14 measures
Overall it ranks above its industry peers.
Valuation
Quality Score59 · Top 25%
Fair Value upside−20.6% · Above median
Profitability
Return on equity (12 months)11.7% · Top 25%
Return on assets5.2% · Top 25%
Net margin (12 months)12.5% · Above median
Operating margin (12 months)16.4% · Above median
Growth and dividend
Revenue growth (quarter YoY)42.3% · Above median
Dividend yield (12 months)2.7% · Above median
Balance sheet
Debt / equity0.15× · Above median
Valuation Multiplesvs Other Industrial Metals & Mining median · lower = cheaper
For bloggers, editors and developers: paste this into your site or blog (a “Custom HTML” block in WordPress), it shows the current fair value and links back here. Free, plain HTML, and welcome. Full data streams (CSV/JSON) at /developers.
Cite: Fair Value Calculator (2026). "Sumitomo Metal Mining Co Ltd ADR Fair Value". https://www.fairvalue-calculator.com/stock/SMMYY
Frequently asked questions
Is Sumitomo Metal Mining Co Ltd (SMMYY) overvalued or undervalued?
As of Oct 22, 2026, our model estimates a fair value of $10.03 versus a price of $12.64, about −21% upside (overvalued).
What is the fair value of SMMYY?
Our model-based fair value for Sumitomo Metal Mining Co Ltd ADR is $10.03 (as of Oct 22, 2026), built from audited fundamentals. The current price: $12.64.
What is the quality score of SMMYY?
Sumitomo Metal Mining Co Ltd ADR has a Quality Score of 59/100. It measures business quality (profitability, growth, cash flow, balance-sheet strength, investment discipline, share issuance). Market factors such as price momentum and volatility do not enter the number; they are shown separately in the detail view.
What is the price target for Sumitomo Metal Mining Co Ltd (SMMYY)?
Our model-based price target is the fair value of $10.03 (as of Oct 22, 2026) from 26 valuation models. Cautious scenario $5.59, optimistic scenario $16.60. It is a calculation from audited fundamentals, not an analyst target.
What is the Sumitomo Metal Mining Co Ltd ADR stock forecast for 2026?
Our models put fair value at $10.03, about −21% upside versus a price of $12.64 (overvalued). Cautious scenario $5.59, optimistic scenario $16.60. The calculation is refreshed regularly with new filings.
What is the revenue of Sumitomo Metal Mining Co Ltd (SMMYY)?
Sumitomo Metal Mining Co Ltd ADR reported trailing-twelve-month revenue of about ¥1.9T (latest available figure, as of Oct 22, 2026).
Does Sumitomo Metal Mining Co Ltd ADR pay a dividend?
Sumitomo Metal Mining Co Ltd ADR currently shows a dividend yield of 2.68% relative to its recent price (as of Oct 22, 2026).
What growth is priced into Sumitomo Metal Mining Co Ltd (SMMYY)?
For today's price to be fair in a discounted-cash-flow model, Sumitomo Metal Mining Co Ltd ADR would have to grow free cash flow by +48.0 % per year for five years (discount rate 10.0 %, then slowing evenly to 2 % perpetual growth by year ten). Over the last 5 years revenue grew +14.8 % per year. As of Oct 22, 2026.
What discount rate (WACC) does the fair value of SMMYY use?
Our models discount Sumitomo Metal Mining Co Ltd ADR at 10.0 %: a base by market capitalisation (large), damped by beta 1.34, country premium for USA. The same rate applies in all 26 models.
What is a reverse DCF?
A reverse DCF turns the usual calculation around. Instead of deriving a value from assumptions, it takes today's price as given and asks: what free-cash-flow growth would a company have to deliver for exactly this price to be fair? The result is not a forecast but the expectation already priced in. For Sumitomo Metal Mining Co Ltd ADR that is +48.0 % per year a year over ten years, using the same discount rate (10.0 %) and the same formula as our fair value.
How much growth has Sumitomo Metal Mining Co Ltd (SMMYY) delivered so far?
Over the past 5 years revenue at Sumitomo Metal Mining Co Ltd ADR grew +14.8 % a year. The price currently implies +48.0 % per year free-cash-flow growth a year. Comparing the two shows how much confidence is in the price: if it demands more than has been delivered, the business has to accelerate for the maths to work.
How fast is the sector of Sumitomo Metal Mining Co Ltd (SMMYY) growing?
The median revenue growth in the sector is +9.5 % a year. That is the yardstick for the growth priced into Sumitomo Metal Mining Co Ltd ADR (+48.0 % per year a year): it shows whether the expectation is within the usual range or beyond it.
What is the free cash flow yield of Sumitomo Metal Mining Co Ltd (SMMYY)?
The free-cash-flow yield on the price is 0.95 %: that much free cash flow Sumitomo Metal Mining Co Ltd ADR produces per unit of market value. When it exceeds the discount rate of our models (10.0 %), the business already earns more than its cost of capital demands, and the price needs little additional growth.
What is the intrinsic value of Sumitomo Metal Mining Co Ltd (SMMYY)?
Intrinsic value and fair value mean the same thing: what the business is worth on its numbers, independent of the share price. For Sumitomo Metal Mining Co Ltd ADR it is $10.03 per share (as of Oct 22, 2026), against a price of $12.64. It is the blended result of 26 valuation models (cash flow, earnings, asset, dividend).
Is Sumitomo Metal Mining Co Ltd ADR stock overvalued or undervalued in 2026?
As of Oct 22, 2026, SMMYY trades above its calculated fair value: price $12.64, fair value $10.03, a gap of about −21% (overvalued). The calculation is refreshed with each new quarterly report, so the verdict can change during the year.
Is fair value the same as the market price of SMMYY?
No. The price is what the market pays today ($12.64); the fair value is what the company's own numbers justify ($10.03). For Sumitomo Metal Mining Co Ltd ADR the two are $2.61 per share apart. That gap is exactly why we show both numbers side by side.
How much is Sumitomo Metal Mining Co Ltd ADR worth?
The market values Sumitomo Metal Mining Co Ltd ADR at about $13.6B (market capitalisation, as of Oct 22, 2026). Per share that is $12.64; our models calculate a fair value of $10.03 per share.
What do the bullish and bearish scenarios say about SMMYY?
Our models span a range for Sumitomo Metal Mining Co Ltd ADR: cautious scenario $5.59, base $10.03, optimistic $16.60 per share (as of Oct 22, 2026, price $12.64). The range comes from different growth and margin assumptions, not from analyst opinions.
What is the P/E ratio of SMMYY?
Sumitomo Metal Mining Co Ltd ADR trades at a price-to-earnings ratio of 8.9 (as of Oct 22, 2026). A P/E on its own says little: it compares the price with ONE year of profit, while our fair value of $10.03 is built from several models across several years. Other multiples: P/B 1.0, P/S 1.1, EV/EBITDA 7.3.
How solid is the balance sheet of Sumitomo Metal Mining Co Ltd (SMMYY)?
Balance-sheet figures for Sumitomo Metal Mining Co Ltd ADR (as of Oct 22, 2026): return on equity 11.7%, debt of 0.15 per unit of equity. They feed the Quality Score of 59/100, which measures business quality independently of the share price.
How far is SMMYY from its 52-week high?
Sumitomo Metal Mining Co Ltd ADR trades at $12.64, about 35% below its 52-week high of $19.33 and 80% above the low of $7.04 (as of Oct 22, 2026). Distance from the high says nothing about value: that is what the fair value of $10.03 is for.
Which stocks are comparable to Sumitomo Metal Mining Co Ltd ADR?
From the same area (Basic Materials) we also value Saudi Arabian Mining Company, CMOC Group, Hindustan Zinc Limited, China Tungsten And Hightech Materials Co, among others. Each of them has its own fair-value calculation on this site using the same models, so the comparison is like for like.
Is Sumitomo Metal Mining Co Ltd ADR stock attractive at the current price?
The data as of Oct 22, 2026: price $12.64, calculated fair value $10.03 (−21%), Quality Score 59/100, from 26 models. Whether that fits your horizon and risk tolerance is your call. We provide the calculation, not investment advice.
How is the fair value of SMMYY calculated?
We run Sumitomo Metal Mining Co Ltd ADR through 26 models from four families: discounted cash flow, earnings models, asset and balance-sheet models, and dividend models. Every model gets the same audited fundamentals; the result is the weighted average of $10.03, with the spread shown as a cautious and an optimistic scenario.
Is it still worth investing in stocks now?
The global stock market currently sits 13.2 % above its aggregate fair value. Sumitomo Metal Mining Co Ltd ADR itself currently trades above fair value. An expensive market is no reason to stay out and no reason to buy everything at once: keep a broad savings plan running, buy single stocks only with money you can do without, and hold part of your money liquid while the market is high. The full picture including sectors is on is it worth investing now.
What is the share price of Sumitomo Metal Mining Co Ltd (SMMYY)?
The closing price on Oct 22, 2026 was $12.64. Our model-based fair value is $10.03, about −21% upside (overvalued). We carry closing prices from our data provider, not a live tick.
What should I pay attention to with Sumitomo Metal Mining Co Ltd ADR right now?
The model range is unusually wide ($5.59 to $16.60). The outcome hinges heavily on assumptions, so read the point estimate with caution. Solid but not exceptional quality (59/100) and above fair value, neither a clear bargain nor a standout compounder.
Key figures of Sumitomo Metal Mining Co Ltd ADR
How large is the market capitalisation of Sumitomo Metal Mining Co Ltd (SMMYY)?
The market capitalisation of Sumitomo Metal Mining Co Ltd ADR is $13.6B. The stock-market value of the whole company: share price times number of shares. It is what the market asks for the entire business today.
What is the P/S ratio of Sumitomo Metal Mining Co Ltd (SMMYY)?
The price-to-sales ratio of Sumitomo Metal Mining Co Ltd ADR is 0.90 (P/E × margin). Price to sales: market value relative to yearly revenue. Useful when profit is thin or distorted.
What are the earnings per share of Sumitomo Metal Mining Co Ltd (SMMYY)?
Earnings per share at Sumitomo Metal Mining Co Ltd ADR are $1.42 (price ÷ EPS = P/E 8.9). Earnings per share over the last twelve months: total profit spread across every single share.
What is the dividend yield of Sumitomo Metal Mining Co Ltd (SMMYY)?
The dividend yield of Sumitomo Metal Mining Co Ltd ADR is 2.7% (payout 23.9%). Yearly dividend relative to the share price. 3% pays 3 per 100 invested. Below: how much of profit is used for it.
What is the net margin of Sumitomo Metal Mining Co Ltd (SMMYY)?
The net margin of Sumitomo Metal Mining Co Ltd ADR is 10.1% (fiscal year 2026). How much of every unit of revenue ends up as profit. 10% means 10 cents of profit per dollar of sales.
What is the return on equity of Sumitomo Metal Mining Co Ltd (SMMYY)?
The return on equity (ROE) of Sumitomo Metal Mining Co Ltd ADR is 11.7% (last twelve months). Profit relative to shareholders' equity, how efficiently the company works with its owners' money.
What is the EBIT return on assets of Sumitomo Metal Mining Co Ltd (SMMYY)?
On an EBIT basis the return on assets of Sumitomo Metal Mining Co Ltd ADR is 4.9% (avg 5y). Operating profit (EBIT) relative to everything the company owns, as a multi-year average. It describes the business model rather than one good or bad year.
What is the operating margin of Sumitomo Metal Mining Co Ltd (SMMYY)?
The operating margin of Sumitomo Metal Mining Co Ltd ADR is 16.4% (last twelve months). Profit from the core business (before interest and taxes) relative to revenue.
How fast is revenue growing at Sumitomo Metal Mining Co Ltd (SMMYY)?
Revenue at Sumitomo Metal Mining Co Ltd ADR is growing +42.3% versus a year earlier (3y avg +9.1%). How much revenue grew versus a year earlier (YoY). The 3-year average next to it puts the single year in context.
How fast are earnings growing at Sumitomo Metal Mining Co Ltd (SMMYY)?
Earnings per share at Sumitomo Metal Mining Co Ltd ADR are growing +226% versus a year earlier. How much earnings per share grew versus a year earlier.
How much net debt does Sumitomo Metal Mining Co Ltd (SMMYY) carry?
The net debt of Sumitomo Metal Mining Co Ltd ADR is ¥566B (fiscal year 2026, ≈ 28.0 yrs of FCF). Debt minus cash on hand. The note shows how many years of free cash flow could in theory pay it off.
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Broad data
Oct 22, 2026