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Data-driven stock valuation

Sumitomo Metal Mining Co Ltd ADR (SMMYY) fair value: what the stock is really worth

We calculate from audited financials what Sumitomo Metal Mining Co Ltd ADR is really worth. The fair value tells you whether the price is too high or too low, the quality score (0 to 100) how solid the business behind it is. 26 models, 37 quality factors, updated daily, free.

  1. Compare price with fair valuebelow fair value = cheap, above = expensive
  2. Check the quality50 and up solid, 75 and up strong
  3. Watch it or check another stockalert when fair value or trend changes

Basic Materials · US · Market cap $14.7B · ISIN US86563T1043

At a glance

SM Sumitomo Metal Mining Co Ltd ADR logo Sumitomo Metal Mining Co Ltd ADR SMMYY · US
Price$16.11
Fair Value$11.29
Upside−29.9%
Quality57/100

A solid business, but trading 43% above our fair value of $11.29.

As of Sep 8, 2026, the fair value of Sumitomo Metal Mining Co Ltd ADR is $11.29 per share against a price of $16.11, so the fair value sits 30% below the price. A model estimate from reported figures, not an analyst target.

!Expensive Growth (revenue 5y +14.8 %/yr)
✓Solidly profitable · 10.1% net margin
✓Low debt · generates free cash flow
·1.45% dividend yield
✓Ranks above peers (10/14)
!Narrow moat 42/100
!Evidence only medium, so the estimate is less certain
!Weak on dividend: 29 out of 100
Evidence: Medium Range $10.46 to $16.27

Fair value as of: Sep 8, 2026

From 24 valuation models · updated today

Fair value updated Sep 8, 2026, revised from $10.77 to $11.29 (+4.8%) since Sep 3, 2026. Share price +17.4% over the past month.

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What runs behind every stock

26 valuation models 8 families, DCF to NCAV 37 quality factors margins, balance sheet, cashflow, debt 6 AI factors moat, what no ratio measures 2,000+ data points verified, per stock, median

69 individual criteria per stock, every one traceable See the method →

What matters now

  • Solid but not exceptional quality (57/100) and above fair value, neither a clear bargain nor a standout compounder.
  • The price sits in the upper half of our model range, so the margin of safety is thin.
  • Read the verdict with care: some models are missing inputs, so the estimate scatters more than usual.

Price vs Fair Value (5 years)

$19.33 $3.79 Fair Value $11.29 Jun 2021 Sep 2026

White line = price, green steps = our fair value per fiscal year, dashed = 300-day average. As of Sep 8, 2026.

How to read this chart

60‑month range $3.79 – $19.33 · fair‑value band $10.46 – $16.27 · the $16.11 price screens above the $11.29 fair value. Green steps = our fair value per fiscal year (point-in-time, no hindsight). Dashed = 300-day average. As of Sep 8, 2026.

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Analysis

Sumitomo Metal Mining Co Ltd ADR (SMMYY) currently trades at $16.11, while our model-based Fair Value estimate is $11.29, implying the stock looks roughly 42.7% overvalued today. The Quality Score stands at 57/100 (solid quality), in the Basic Materials sector. Bull case: the Growth Earnings group reads highest at a median of $15.65 per share, and 3 of the 24 models we run sit above the $16.11 price. Bear case: the Economic Profit group reads lowest at $6.52, and 21 of the 24 models stay below the price. Evidence for this calculation is medium.

Over the trailing twelve months, Sumitomo Metal Mining Co Ltd ADR generated revenue of ¥1.7T at a net margin of 10.1%. Revenue grew 22.5% year over year. It earns a return on equity of 8.7%. Net debt stands at ¥549B. Fundamentals as of Sep 8, 2026

Scenario range: $10.46 (bear) to $16.27 (bull), the price of $16.11 sits inside it. Bear and bull are the same models on cautious and optimistic assumptions, a range, not a price target. The share trades about 17% below its 52-week high and 213% above its 52-week low, currently above its 200-day average. For context, the median of 10 Basic Materials peers we cover trades at −37% fair-value upside, at −30%, SMMYY screens cheaper than that median.

Fair Value models

Each model values the company its own way; the fair value above is the evidence-weighted blend. Evidence (0 to 100) shows how complete a model's inputs are. How we calculate →

Model Bear ⓘBear = the cautious scenario: the same model computed with conservative anchors (lower growth, margins and valuation multiples). Together with Bull it frames a plausible valuation range, not a price target.BaseBull ⓘBull = the optimistic scenario: the same model computed with favourable anchors (higher growth, margins and valuation multiples). Together with Bear it frames a plausible valuation range, not a price target. Evidence
Highest evidence
FCF DCF best evidence n/a $0.6039 $1.69 77
Owner Earnings $8.64 $14.33 $23.07 75
Growth DCF n/a $0.5397 $1.44 75
All 24 models by family
DCF Models
FCF DCF best evidence n/a $0.6039 $1.69 77
Owner Earnings $8.64 $14.33 $23.07 75
5Y Revenue Exit $5.27 $10.77 $17.97 70
5Y EBITDA Exit $5.33 $10.89 $17.48 73
5Y P/E Exit $6.54 $13.16 $20.22 69
10Y Revenue Exit $3.02 $7.58 $14.02 63
10Y EBITDA Exit $3.36 $7.67 $13.64 65
10Y P/E Exit $4.13 $9.25 $15.74 61
Earnings-Based
Graham-Dodd $6.83 $21.80 $29.06 64
Lynch FV $4.81 $6.88 $8.94 61
PEG = 1.0 $4.81 $6.88 $8.94 57
EPV $5.40 $6.52 $7.50 74
Multiples
P/E Multiple $12.80 $17.07 $21.34 63
P/S Multiple $11.16 $14.88 $18.60 58
P/B Multiple $12.80 $17.07 $21.34 55
EV/EBIT $10.09 $13.90 $17.72 66
EV/EBITDA $9.38 $12.96 $16.53 67
EV/Revenue $8.57 $12.82 $17.06 53
Asset-Based
NCAV (Graham) $5.60 $7.50 $11.19 54
Growth DCF
Growth DCF n/a $0.5397 $1.44 75
Rev-Margin DCF $5.27 $10.60 $16.71 71
Economic Profit
Residual Income $9.57 $10.45 $14.07 71
ROIC Compounder $5.40 $6.52 $7.50 72
Growth Earnings
Growth-Adj P/E $10.96 $15.65 $20.35 67

Widest divergence: Growth Earnings ($15.65) versus Growth DCF ($0.5397). Highest evidence: FCF DCF (77).

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Key figures & financial health

P/E ratio 16.0
P/S ratio 1.61 P/E × margin
EPS (TTM) $1.01 price ÷ EPS = P/E 16.0
Dividend yield 1.5% payout 23.1%
Net margin 10.1% FY2026
Return on equity 8.7% TTM
More key figures
Profitability
Return on assets (EBIT) 4.9% avg 5y
Operating margin 13.2% TTM
Growth
Revenue (TTM) ¥1.7T TTM
Revenue growth (YoY) +22.5% 3y avg +9.1%
EPS growth (YoY) +10.0%
Balance sheet & cash flow
Free cash flow ¥20.2B FY2026
Net debt ¥549B FY2026 · ≈ 27.2 yrs of FCF

Figures from reported company fundamentals · as of Sep 8, 2026. TTM = trailing twelve months.

Quality Score breakdown

Overall quality 57/100

Of which business quality 53 · Market factors (momentum, volatility) 63

Profitability 36
Margins and returns on capital today
Quality Growth 83
Are margins and returns improving?
Cashflow 14
Earnings quality: real cash, not paper profit
Fin. Strength 55
Balance sheet, leverage, solvency risk
Investment 65
Disciplined investing over empire-building
Low Volatility 20
Calm price path (market factor)
Momentum 77
Price trend over the last 3–12 months (market factor)
52W Momentum 89
Distance to the 52-week high (market factor)
Net Issuance 96
Buybacks instead of dilution

Non-valuation factor families (profitability, growth, cashflow, financial strength, momentum …), each academically grounded. Valuation itself sits in the Fair Value and is deliberately excluded here to avoid double-counting.

All values are scores from 0 to 100 (100 = best against fixed, research-based bands), not percentages. The three market factors (momentum, 52-week proximity, low volatility) are displayed but carry zero weight in the headline number: market sentiment is not a business property.

About the company

Sumitomo Metal Mining Co., Ltd., together with its subsidiaries, engages in the resource development, manufacture, and sale of non-ferrous metal products in Japan and internationally. It operates through Resource, Smelting, and Material segments.

Full company description

Sumitomo Metal Mining Co., Ltd., together with its subsidiaries, engages in the resource development, manufacture, and sale of non-ferrous metal products in Japan and internationally. It operates through Resource, Smelting, and Material segments. The company is involved in the development and operation of the Hishikari Mine and other mines; smelting and refining business, which provides metal products, such as copper, nickel and cobalt, silver, platinum, rhodium, ruthenium, palladium, slag sand, copper sulfate, selenium, gypsum, sulfuric acid, and green sand, as well as gold and precious metals, rolled copper foil, copper and brass strips, tin plated copper and brass strips, and iron contained pellets; and develops and produces battery materials. It also produces battery cathode material for vehicles; lithium tantalate and lithium niobate for communication devices; cesium tungsten oxide, other near infrared ray absorbing materials, and thick film pastes; copper-clad polyimide films and printed wiring boards; silicon-carbide semiconductor; and automobile exhaust gas purification catalysts, chemical catalysts, and hydrotreating catalysts. In addition, the company engages in the water and precious metals recycling; water treatment and environmental improvement operations; and environmental preservation; sterilization, disinfection, and polymer material modification services for medical devices, non-woven fabrics and hygienic materials, laboratory and clinical testing equipment, containers, food packaging materials, pharmaceutical, cosmetic, and herbal medicine materials. Further, it is involved in the coastal shipping, port transport, in-plant logistics, and land transportation. The company was formerly known as Seika Kogyo (Mining) Co., Ltd. and changed its name to Sumitomo Metal Mining Co., Ltd. in June 1952. Sumitomo Metal Mining Co., Ltd. was founded in 1590 and is headquartered in Tokyo, Japan.

Company description, as reported by the company or data provider.

Revenue & earnings trend

FY2022 – FY2026 · reported fiscal years

Sumitomo Metal Mining Co Ltd ADR reported revenue of ¥1.8T in FY2026 versus ¥1.3T in FY2022, a compound +10.0%/yr. Reported net income was ¥187B in FY2026, compounding −9.7%/yr from FY2022.

Growth Quality 62/100
The company is growing, but growth may require heavy reinvestment or weak cash conversion.
Latest Revenue (FY 2026)
$1.8T
Latest YoY
+15.9%
Avg. revenue growth/yr (3Y) ⓘMeasures the company's TOTAL revenue from reported annual statements: compound average growth per year (CAGR) from the fiscal year 3, 5 or N years back to the most recent comparable fiscal year. Not per share: buybacks do not change this number, and a merger can appear as a growth jump.
+9.1%
Avg. revenue growth/yr (5Y) ⓘMeasures the company's TOTAL revenue from reported annual statements: compound average growth per year (CAGR) from the fiscal year 3, 5 or N years back to the most recent comparable fiscal year. Not per share: buybacks do not change this number, and a merger can appear as a growth jump.
+14.8%
Avg. revenue growth/yr (26Y) ⓘMeasures the company's TOTAL revenue from reported annual statements: compound average growth per year (CAGR) from the fiscal year 3, 5 or N years back to the most recent comparable fiscal year. Not per share: buybacks do not change this number, and a merger can appear as a growth jump.
+6.5%
Value creation/yr (5Y, in JPY) ⓘEarnings growth per share (CAGR 5 years) plus dividend yield: value created per share and year. Measured in JPY: this currency has depreciated against the euro and dollar over the long run, so part of the nominal rate is currency erosion that never reaches a EUR/USD investor.
≈ +53.1%
Earnings growth per share plus dividend yield: the value created per share and year.
Earnings growth per share+51.6%
Dividend yield1.5%
Trend ⓘTwo data points, not a trend model: earnings growth per share over the last 5 fiscal years against the last 10. Labelled "steady" when both rates are within 3 percentage points of each other, otherwise picking up or flattening. Shown only when ten years of history exist.5Y 51.6% vs 10Y 24.9%, picking up
Operating margin (EBIT) ⓘOperating margin then vs now, from reported annual statements. A falling margin after a boom year is the classic peak-earnings signal: the growth rate then leans on an inflated base.11.3% (2021) → 11.0% (2026) · steady
Worst earnings drop123% (2017) (loss year, drop beyond 100%) · in USD
⚠ Final year 2026 sits 371% above trend (one-off), rate approximate
Revenue +10.0%/yr
FY22 ¥1.3T
FY23 ¥1.4T
FY24 ¥1.4T
FY25 ¥1.6T
FY26 ¥1.8T
Net income −9.7%/yr
FY22 ¥281B
FY23 ¥161B
FY24 ¥58.6B
FY25 ¥16.5B
FY26 ¥187B

SMMYY screens 43% overvalued. Compare with BHP Group →

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Cite: Fair Value Calculator (2026). "Sumitomo Metal Mining Co Ltd ADR Fair Value". https://www.fairvalue-calculator.com/stock/SMMYY

Peer Group

Other Industrial Metals & Mining · 472 stocks

How this stock ranks against its industry: the green marker is this stock, the band is the typical 25–75% peer range, and the tick is the median.

Valuation
Quality Score 57 · Top 25%
Fair Value upside −33% · Below median
Profitability
Return on equity (TTM) 9% · Top 25%
Return on assets 3% · Top 25%
Net margin (TTM) 10% · Top 25%
Operating margin (TTM) 13% · Above median
Growth and dividend
Revenue growth 23% · Above median
Dividend yield (TTM) 1.5% · Below median
Balance sheet
Debt / equity 0.18× · Above median

Valuation Multiples vs Other Industrial Metals & Mining median · lower = cheaper

P/E (TTM) 16.0× · Cheaper than median
P/FCF 0.7× · Cheapest 25%

What the price implies (reverse DCF)

The inverse question: what free-cash-flow growth must Sumitomo Metal Mining Co Ltd ADR deliver for ten years so that today's price is fair in our DCF model? Same formula, same discount rate as the fair value.

Implied FCF growth, 10 years+36.7 % per year
Achieved revenue growth, 5 years+14.8 % p.a.
Sector median revenue growth+3.2 %
FCF yield on price0.75 %
Discount rate (WACC) in the models9.9 %

The price demands an acceleration versus past growth: a high bar the company still has to clear. Ranking of the largest stocks →

Context: sector, industry, market

Strength profile in five axes (Snowflake)

Five quick dimensions, each 0 to 100: VALUE (fair-value potential), FUTURE (revenue growth), PAST (return on equity), HEALTH (low debt), DIVIDEND (yield). Green = this stock, grey = typical sector peer.

VALUEFUTUREPASTHEALTHDIVIDEND
This stock
VALUEFUTUREPASTHEALTHDIVIDEND
Sector peers
VALUE0 · sector 0
FUTURE100 · sector 41
PAST35 · sector 0
HEALTH91 · sector 96
DIVIDEND29 · sector 37

VALUE 0: the price sits above our fair-value range.

Values & ESG

Does this company touch areas you may want to avoid? The classification is inferred from sector and industry.

None of the checked exposures detected

Similar stocks

10 more Other Industrial Metals & Mining stocks, each showing price versus our Fair Value estimate (as of Sep 8, 2026).

Stock Price Fair Value vs Fair Value
BHP Group BHP A$66.84 A$42.16 −37%
Vale S.A VALE $15.27 $8.95 −41%
Saudi Arabian Mining Company 1211 65.50 SAR 33.87 SAR −48%
CMOC Group 603993 ¥18.42 ¥16.15 −12%
Teck Resources Limited TECK $69.34 $32.02 −54%
Hindustan Zinc Limited HINDZINC ₹573.00 ₹508.34 −11%
China Tungsten And Hightech Materials Co 000657 ¥66.76 ¥9.55 −86%
China Northern Rare Earth (Group) High-Tech Co 600111 ¥41.02 ¥10.59 −74%
Western Mining Co 601168 ¥37.85 ¥25.99 −31%
Boliden AB BOL kr 527.80 kr 461.48 −13%

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Frequently asked questions

Is Sumitomo Metal Mining Co Ltd ADR (SMMYY) overvalued or undervalued?
As of Sep 8, 2026, our model estimates a fair value of $11.29 versus a price of $16.11, about −30% upside (overvalued).
What is the fair value of SMMYY?
Our model-based fair value for Sumitomo Metal Mining Co Ltd ADR is $11.29 (as of Sep 8, 2026), built from audited fundamentals. The current price: $16.11.
What is the quality score of SMMYY?
Sumitomo Metal Mining Co Ltd ADR has a Quality Score of 57/100. It measures business quality (profitability, growth, cash flow, balance-sheet strength, investment discipline, share issuance). Market factors such as price momentum and volatility do not enter the number; they are shown separately in the detail view.
What is the price target for Sumitomo Metal Mining Co Ltd ADR (SMMYY)?
Our model-based price target is the fair value of $11.29 (as of Sep 8, 2026) from 24 valuation models. Cautious scenario $10.46, optimistic scenario $16.27. It is a calculation from audited fundamentals, not an analyst target.
What is the Sumitomo Metal Mining Co Ltd ADR stock forecast for 2026?
Our models put fair value at $11.29, about −30% upside versus a price of $16.11 (overvalued). Cautious scenario $10.46, optimistic scenario $16.27. The calculation is refreshed regularly with new filings.
What is the revenue of Sumitomo Metal Mining Co Ltd ADR (SMMYY)?
Sumitomo Metal Mining Co Ltd ADR reported trailing-twelve-month revenue of about ¥1.7T (latest available figure, as of Sep 8, 2026).
What is the net profit margin of SMMYY?
The net profit margin of Sumitomo Metal Mining Co Ltd ADR is about 10.1%, meaning it keeps roughly 10.1% of revenue as net income. Based on the latest reported figures.
Does Sumitomo Metal Mining Co Ltd ADR pay a dividend?
Sumitomo Metal Mining Co Ltd ADR currently shows a dividend yield of about 1.45% relative to its recent price (as of Sep 8, 2026).
What growth is priced into Sumitomo Metal Mining Co Ltd ADR (SMMYY)?
For today's price to be fair in a discounted-cash-flow model, Sumitomo Metal Mining Co Ltd ADR would have to grow free cash flow by +36.7 % per year for ten years (discount rate 9.9 %, then 2 % perpetual growth). Over the last 5 years revenue grew +14.8 % per year. As of Sep 8, 2026.
What discount rate (WACC) does the fair value of SMMYY use?
Our models discount Sumitomo Metal Mining Co Ltd ADR at 9.9 %: a base by market capitalisation (large), damped by beta 1.28, country premium for USA. The same rate applies in all 26 models.
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