ShaMaran Petroleum Ltd (SNM-SDB) fair value: what the stock is really worth
As of Oct 28, 2026: fair value (intrinsic value) of ShaMaran Petroleum Ltd stock SEK 2.80, price SEK 1.75, upside +60.0%, quality 69 out of 100. Rating: strongly undervalued. Calculated from audited financials with 26 valuation models and 37 quality factors, updated daily.
Fair value 30%+ above price?Yes
Quality 50+?Yes
In an uptrend?Unknown
Keep an eye on it?Free in your watchlist: 5 stocks without an account, 10 with oneYes, for free
ShaMaran Petroleum Ltd., together with its subsidiaries, engages in oil and gas exploration and production. It has working interest in the Atrush Block in the Kurdistan region of Iraq, as well as holds working interest in the Sarsang Block in the Kurdistan region of Iraq.
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The company was incorporated in 1991 and is headquartered in Hamilton, Bermuda.
Stock analysis
ShaMaran Petroleum Ltd (SNM-SDB) currently trades at kr 1.75, while our model-based Fair Value estimate is kr 2.80, implying the stock looks roughly 37.5% undervalued today.
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Valuation
Bull case: the DCF Models group reads highest at a median of kr 3.23 per share, and 11 of the 20 models we run sit above the kr 1.75 price.
Bear case: the Asset-Based group reads lowest at kr 0.5800, and 9 of the 20 models stay below the price. Data coverage for this calculation is low.
Scenario range: kr 1.96 (bear) to kr 3.63 (bull), the price of kr 1.75 sits below it. Bear and bull are the same models on cautious and optimistic assumptions, a range, not a price target.
Quality & growth
The Quality Score stands at 69/100 (solid quality), in the Energy sector.
Weak Growth: Revenue growth is inconsistent: the periods point in different directions, so there is no trend to rely on.
ShaMaran Petroleum Ltd reported revenue of $155M in FY2025 versus $177M in FY2022, a compound −4.3%/yr. Reported net income was $26.8M in FY2025, compounding −38.4%/yr from FY2022.
Key figures
Market cap 5.0B SEK (≈ $510M) Small · P/S ratio 34.2 · Net margin 36.1% · Return on equity 20.1% · Return on assets (EBIT) 9.3% · Operating margin 61.1% · Revenue (TTM) $139M · Revenue growth (YoY) −49.8%.
Competitive moat
Our AI-assisted moat analysis scores the competitive advantage at 74 out of 100 (low confidence).
What moves the price
For context, the median of 10 Energy peers we cover trades at 10% fair-value upside, at 60%, SNM-SDB screens cheaper than that median.
Fair Value models
Bearkr 1.96Fair Value kr 2.80Bullkr 3.63
Price kr 1.75 · Upside +60.0%
Model ⓘEach model values the company its own way (discounted cash flow, earnings, assets, dividends). The fair value above starts from their evidence-weighted blend, not from a single model. In cyclical trough or peak years, after dilution or a stock split it is adjusted afterwards, so it can sit above or below the models.Bear ⓘBear = the cautious scenario: the same model computed with conservative anchors (lower growth, margins and valuation multiples). Together with Bull it frames a plausible valuation range, not a price target.BaseBull ⓘBull = the optimistic scenario: the same model computed with favourable anchors (higher growth, margins and valuation multiples). Together with Bear it frames a plausible valuation range, not a price target. If a model's bull case is above four times its base value, the table shows that limit with a > sign (like the overall Bull above): beyond it no assumption holds.Coverage ⓘCoverage = how well-backed THIS model's estimate is for this stock (0–100): how complete and reliable its input data are, and how well the model fits the company. The final Fair Value is an evidence-weighted blend, so better-evidenced models count more. Green ≥70, amber 50–69, grey below 50.
Growth Quality ⓘGrowth is valuable only when reinvestment earns attractive returns (Aswath Damodaran): sustainable growth depends on return on capital, reinvestment and efficiency. Basis: total company revenue over the periods shown on the cards (3Y/5Y/all years), not per share, so a merger can show up as a growth jump; per-share earnings growth is in the value-creation card.40/100
Revenue growth is inconsistent: the periods point in different directions, so there is no trend to rely on.
Revenue growth 1 year
+41.6%
Revenue growth 3 years ⓘMeasures the company's TOTAL revenue from reported annual statements: compound average growth per year (CAGR) from the fiscal year 3, 5 or N years back to the most recent comparable fiscal year. Not per share: buybacks do not change this number, and a merger can appear as a growth jump. Per-share growth (which does include buybacks) is in the value-creation card.
−4.3%
’22
’23
’24
’25
What shareholders gained per year (last 3 years) ⓘWhat the business itself delivers per year: earnings growth per share plus the dividend yield. This is what you get IF the market keeps valuing the stock the same way: it contains no assumption about the market changing its mind. Computed per share, so buybacks count and a merger does not pass as growth. For a company that pays no dividend it is pure earnings growth per share. Period: earnings growth per share as CAGR over the last 3 reported fiscal years (annual statements), plus the current dividend yield. The start value is the median of the three years around the start, so a single crisis year (a pandemic or a write-down) does not distort the rate. Basis: EBIT basis.
+0.7%
Earnings growth per share plus dividend.
Earnings per share, growth per year+0.7%
Dividend (yield on the price)0.0%
Profit margin 2022 to 2025 ⓘOperating margin then vs now, from reported annual statements. A falling margin after a boom year is the classic peak-earnings signal: the growth rate then leans on an inflated base.51% → 32%
Growth Forecast
A lot of optimism in the price
The price assumes more growth than the company has delivered so far.
What the price assumes ⓘThis turns our valuation around: instead of asking what the share is worth, it asks what growth the current price requires. It uses the cash the company keeps after all spending (free cash flow), the same discount rate as our models, five years of growth, then slowing evenly to 2 % a year by year ten. Compared with the analysts' sales forecasts extended to the same five years (at least three analysts, for context only, it does not enter the Fair Value): within 3 percentage points counts as "in line" (amber), below that little optimism (green), above that a lot of optimism (red).
−0.7%
The company could shrink this much every year for the next five years and today's price would still be justified.
What forecasts expect
n/a
No analyst forecast available.
After inflation (figures in USD, USA: IMF forecast 2.4% a year to 2030, 3.1% from 2016 to 2025) that is about −3.0% a year for the price.
Price, fair value, quality and upside side by side.
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Peer GroupⓘHow this stock ranks against its industry: the green marker is this stock, the band is the typical 25–75% peer range, and the tick is the median.Oil & Gas E&P · 263 stocks
Beats the industry median on 7/12 measures
A mixed picture versus its industry peers.
Valuation
Quality Score69 · Top 25%
Fair Value upside+60.0% · Top 25%
Profitability
Return on equity (12 months)20.1% · Top 25%
Return on assets5.9% · Above median
Net margin (12 months)36.1% · Top 25%
Operating margin (12 months)61.1% · Top 25%
Growth and dividend
Revenue growth (quarter YoY)−49.8% · Bottom 25%
Balance sheet
Debt / equity0.53× · Above median
Valuation Multiplesvs Oil & Gas E&P median · lower = cheaper
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Is ShaMaran Petroleum Ltd (SNM-SDB) overvalued or undervalued?
As of Oct 25, 2026, our model estimates a fair value of kr 2.80 versus a price of kr 1.75, about +60% upside (undervalued).
What is the fair value of SNM-SDB?
Our model-based fair value for ShaMaran Petroleum Ltd is kr 2.80 (as of Oct 25, 2026), built from audited fundamentals. The current price: kr 1.75.
What is the quality score of SNM-SDB?
ShaMaran Petroleum Ltd has a Quality Score of 69/100. It measures business quality (profitability, growth, cash flow, balance-sheet strength, investment discipline, share issuance). Market factors such as price momentum and volatility do not enter the number; they are shown separately in the detail view.
What is the price target for ShaMaran Petroleum Ltd (SNM-SDB)?
Our model-based price target is the fair value of kr 2.80 (as of Oct 25, 2026) from 20 valuation models. Cautious scenario kr 1.96, optimistic scenario kr 3.63. It is a calculation from audited fundamentals, not an analyst target.
What is the ShaMaran Petroleum Ltd stock forecast for 2026?
Our models put fair value at kr 2.80, about +60% upside versus a price of kr 1.75 (undervalued). Cautious scenario kr 1.96, optimistic scenario kr 3.63. The calculation is refreshed regularly with new filings.
What is the revenue of ShaMaran Petroleum Ltd (SNM-SDB)?
ShaMaran Petroleum Ltd reported trailing-twelve-month revenue of about $139M (latest available figure, as of Oct 25, 2026).
What growth is priced into ShaMaran Petroleum Ltd (SNM-SDB)?
For today's price to be fair in a discounted-cash-flow model, ShaMaran Petroleum Ltd would have to grow free cash flow by -0.7 % per year for five years (discount rate 10.7 %, then slowing evenly to 2 % perpetual growth by year ten). Over the last 3 years revenue grew -4.3 % per year. As of Oct 25, 2026.
What discount rate (WACC) does the fair value of SNM-SDB use?
Our models discount ShaMaran Petroleum Ltd at 10.7 %: a base by market capitalisation (small), damped by beta 0.89, country premium for Sweden. The same rate applies in all 26 models.
What is a reverse DCF?
A reverse DCF turns the usual calculation around. Instead of deriving a value from assumptions, it takes today's price as given and asks: what free-cash-flow growth would a company have to deliver for exactly this price to be fair? The result is not a forecast but the expectation already priced in. For ShaMaran Petroleum Ltd that is -0.7 % per year a year over ten years, using the same discount rate (10.7 %) and the same formula as our fair value.
How much growth has ShaMaran Petroleum Ltd (SNM-SDB) delivered so far?
Over the past 3 years revenue at ShaMaran Petroleum Ltd grew -4.3 % a year. The price currently implies -0.7 % per year free-cash-flow growth a year. Comparing the two shows how much confidence is in the price: if it demands more than has been delivered, the business has to accelerate for the maths to work.
How fast is the sector of ShaMaran Petroleum Ltd (SNM-SDB) growing?
The median revenue growth in the sector is +13.0 % a year. That is the yardstick for the growth priced into ShaMaran Petroleum Ltd (-0.7 % per year a year): it shows whether the expectation is within the usual range or beyond it.
What is the free cash flow yield of ShaMaran Petroleum Ltd (SNM-SDB)?
The free-cash-flow yield on the price is 11.88 %: that much free cash flow ShaMaran Petroleum Ltd produces per unit of market value. When it exceeds the discount rate of our models (10.7 %), the business already earns more than its cost of capital demands, and the price needs little additional growth.
What is the intrinsic value of ShaMaran Petroleum Ltd (SNM-SDB)?
Intrinsic value and fair value mean the same thing: what the business is worth on its numbers, independent of the share price. For ShaMaran Petroleum Ltd it is kr 2.80 per share (as of Oct 25, 2026), against a price of kr 1.75. It is the blended result of 20 valuation models (cash flow, earnings, asset, dividend).
Is ShaMaran Petroleum Ltd stock overvalued or undervalued in 2026?
As of Oct 25, 2026, SNM-SDB trades below its calculated fair value: price kr 1.75, fair value kr 2.80, a gap of about +60% (undervalued). The calculation is refreshed with each new quarterly report, so the verdict can change during the year.
Is fair value the same as the market price of SNM-SDB?
No. The price is what the market pays today (kr 1.75); the fair value is what the company's own numbers justify (kr 2.80). For ShaMaran Petroleum Ltd the two are kr 1.05 per share apart. That gap is exactly why we show both numbers side by side.
How much is ShaMaran Petroleum Ltd worth?
The market values ShaMaran Petroleum Ltd at about 5.0B SEK (market capitalisation, as of Oct 25, 2026). Per share that is kr 1.75; our models calculate a fair value of kr 2.80 per share.
What do the bullish and bearish scenarios say about SNM-SDB?
Our models span a range for ShaMaran Petroleum Ltd: cautious scenario kr 1.96, base kr 2.80, optimistic kr 3.63 per share (as of Oct 25, 2026, price kr 1.75). The range comes from different growth and margin assumptions, not from analyst opinions.
How solid is the balance sheet of ShaMaran Petroleum Ltd (SNM-SDB)?
Balance-sheet figures for ShaMaran Petroleum Ltd (as of Oct 25, 2026): return on equity 20.1%, debt of 0.53 per unit of equity. They feed the Quality Score of 69/100, which measures business quality independently of the share price.
Which stocks are comparable to ShaMaran Petroleum Ltd?
From the same area (Energy) we also value ConocoPhillips explores for,, CNOOC Limited, Canadian Natural Resources Limited, EOG Resources, Inc, among others. Each of them has its own fair-value calculation on this site using the same models, so the comparison is like for like.
Is ShaMaran Petroleum Ltd stock attractive at the current price?
The data as of Oct 25, 2026: price kr 1.75, calculated fair value kr 2.80 (+60%), Quality Score 69/100, from 20 models. Whether that fits your horizon and risk tolerance is your call. We provide the calculation, not investment advice.
How is the fair value of SNM-SDB calculated?
We run ShaMaran Petroleum Ltd through 20 models from four families: discounted cash flow, earnings models, asset and balance-sheet models, and dividend models. Every model gets the same audited fundamentals; the result is the weighted average of kr 2.80, with the spread shown as a cautious and an optimistic scenario.
Is it still worth investing in stocks now?
The global stock market currently sits 13.4 % above its aggregate fair value. ShaMaran Petroleum Ltd currently trades 38 % below its own fair value, and the market average says nothing about that. An expensive market is no reason to stay out and no reason to buy everything at once: keep a broad savings plan running, buy single stocks only with money you can do without, and hold part of your money liquid while the market is high. The full picture including sectors is on is it worth investing now.
What is the share price of ShaMaran Petroleum Ltd (SNM-SDB)?
The closing price on Oct 28, 2026 was kr 1.75. Our model-based fair value is kr 2.80, about +60% upside (undervalued). We carry closing prices from our data provider, not a live tick.
What should I pay attention to with ShaMaran Petroleum Ltd right now?
The price is below even our cautious bear case (kr 1.96). The market is more pessimistic than our downside scenario. The large gap to fair value rests on thin data (low evidence): fewer applicable models and a shorter history. Read it with extra caution. Solid quality (69/100) at a price below fair value, the discount is the argument here, not the business quality. A fairly wide model range (kr 1.96 to kr 3.63) leaves room in how you read the outcome.
Key figures of ShaMaran Petroleum Ltd
How large is the market capitalisation of ShaMaran Petroleum Ltd (SNM-SDB)?
The market capitalisation of ShaMaran Petroleum Ltd is 5.0B SEK (≈ $510M). The stock-market value of the whole company: share price times number of shares. It is what the market asks for the entire business today.
What is the P/S ratio of ShaMaran Petroleum Ltd (SNM-SDB)?
The price-to-sales ratio of ShaMaran Petroleum Ltd is 34.2 (last twelve months). Price to sales: market value relative to yearly revenue. Useful when profit is thin or distorted.
What is the net margin of ShaMaran Petroleum Ltd (SNM-SDB)?
The net margin of ShaMaran Petroleum Ltd is 36.1% (last twelve months). How much of every unit of revenue ends up as profit. 10% means 10 cents of profit per dollar of sales.
What is the return on equity of ShaMaran Petroleum Ltd (SNM-SDB)?
The return on equity (ROE) of ShaMaran Petroleum Ltd is 20.1% (last twelve months). Profit relative to shareholders' equity, how efficiently the company works with its owners' money.
What is the EBIT return on assets of ShaMaran Petroleum Ltd (SNM-SDB)?
On an EBIT basis the return on assets of ShaMaran Petroleum Ltd is 9.3% (avg 4y). Operating profit (EBIT) relative to everything the company owns, as a multi-year average. It describes the business model rather than one good or bad year.
What is the operating margin of ShaMaran Petroleum Ltd (SNM-SDB)?
The operating margin of ShaMaran Petroleum Ltd is 61.1% (last twelve months). Profit from the core business (before interest and taxes) relative to revenue.
How fast is revenue growing at ShaMaran Petroleum Ltd (SNM-SDB)?
Revenue at ShaMaran Petroleum Ltd is growing −49.8% versus a year earlier (3y avg −4.3%). How much revenue grew versus a year earlier (YoY). The 3-year average next to it puts the single year in context.
How fast are earnings growing at ShaMaran Petroleum Ltd (SNM-SDB)?
Earnings per share at ShaMaran Petroleum Ltd are growing +200% versus a year earlier. How much earnings per share grew versus a year earlier.
How much net debt does ShaMaran Petroleum Ltd (SNM-SDB) carry?
The net debt of ShaMaran Petroleum Ltd is $104M (fiscal year 2025, ≈ 1.7 yrs of FCF). Debt minus cash on hand. The note shows how many years of free cash flow could in theory pay it off.
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Thin data
Oct 25, 2026