Sinopec Kantons Holdings Ltd (SPKOY) fair value: what the stock is really worth
As of Sep 25, 2026: fair value of Sinopec Kantons Holdings Ltd $5.24, price $18.68, upside -72.0%, quality 63 out of 100. Calculated from audited financials with 26 valuation models and 37 quality factors, updated daily.
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Price vs Fair Value
White line = price, green steps = our fair value per fiscal year, dashed = 300-day average. As of Sep 24, 2026.
How to read this chart
60‑month range $8.15 – $23.20 · fair‑value band $4.22 – $6.91 · the $18.68 price screens above the $5.24 fair value. Dashed = 300-day average. As of Sep 24, 2026.
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Sinopec Kantons Holdings Limited, an investment holding company, provides crude oil jetty services. It operates in two segments: Crude Oil Jetty and Storage Services, and Vessel Chartering and Logistics Services.
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Sinopec Kantons Holdings Limited, an investment holding company, provides crude oil jetty services. It operates in two segments: Crude Oil Jetty and Storage Services, and Vessel Chartering and Logistics Services. The company offers crude oil transportation, unloading, storage, and other jetty services for oil tankers in the People's Republic of China, Europe, and the Middle East; and vessel chartering services for liquefied natural gas transportation in the People's Republic of China, Australia, and the Papua New Guinea. It also engages in the trading of crude oil; and provision of oil supporting and ancillary services. The company was incorporated in 1998 and is based in Causeway Bay, Hong Kong. Sinopec Kantons Holdings Limited operates as a subsidiary of Sinopec Kantons International Limited.
Stock analysis
Sinopec Kantons Holdings Ltd ADR (SPKOY) currently trades at $18.68, while our model-based Fair Value estimate is $5.24, 72.0% below the price, so the stock looks overvalued today.
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Valuation
Bull case: the Growth Earnings group reads highest at a median of $22.72 per share, and 7 of the 24 models we run sit above the $18.68 price.
Bear case: the Earnings-Based group reads lowest at $2.67, and 17 of the 24 models stay below the price. Evidence for this calculation is high.
Scenario range: $4.22 (bear) to $6.91 (bull), the price of $18.68 sits above it. Bear and bull are the same models on cautious and optimistic assumptions, a range, not a price target.
Quality & growth
The Quality Score stands at 63/100 (solid quality), in the Energy sector.
Weak Growth: Revenue growth is weak: less than 2 % a year.
Sinopec Kantons Holdings Ltd ADR reported revenue of HK$658M in FY2025 versus HK$637M in FY2021, a compound +0.8%/yr. Reported net income was HK$1.0B in FY2025, compounding −0.6%/yr from FY2021.
Key figures
Market cap $1.2B · P/E ratio 8.9 · P/S ratio 13.8 · EPS (TTM) $2.11 · Dividend yield 6.6% · Net margin 156% · Return on equity 6.3% · Return on assets (EBIT) 0.5%.
Competitive moat
Our AI-assisted moat analysis scores the competitive advantage at 42 out of 100 (low confidence).
What moves the price
For context, the median of 10 Energy peers we cover trades at −21% fair-value upside, at −72%, SPKOY screens richer than that median.
Fair Value models
Bear $4.22Fair Value $5.24Bull $6.91
Model ⓘEach model values the company its own way (discounted cash flow, earnings, assets, dividends). The fair value above is their evidence-weighted blend, not the output of a single model. Based on fiscal year 2025 figures (about 9 months old). Earnings retained since then ($1.41 per share) are deliberately not added.Bear ⓘBear = the cautious scenario: the same model computed with conservative anchors (lower growth, margins and valuation multiples). Together with Bull it frames a plausible valuation range, not a price target.BaseBull ⓘBull = the optimistic scenario: the same model computed with favourable anchors (higher growth, margins and valuation multiples). Together with Bear it frames a plausible valuation range, not a price target. If a model's bull case is above four times its base value, the table shows that limit with a > sign (like the overall Bull above): beyond it no assumption holds.Evidence ⓘEvidence = how well-backed THIS model's estimate is for this stock (0–100): how complete and reliable its input data are, and how well the model fits the company. The final Fair Value is an evidence-weighted blend, so better-evidenced models count more. Green ≥70, amber 50–69, grey below 50.
Growth Quality ⓘGrowth is valuable only when reinvestment earns attractive returns (Aswath Damodaran): sustainable growth depends on return on capital, reinvestment and efficiency. Basis: total company revenue over the periods shown on the cards (3Y/5Y/all years), not per share, so a merger can show up as a growth jump; per-share earnings growth is in the value-creation card.40/100
Revenue growth is weak: less than 2 % a year.
Revenue growth 1 year
−1.4%
Revenue growth 3 years ⓘMeasures the company's TOTAL revenue from reported annual statements: compound average growth per year (CAGR) from the fiscal year 3, 5 or N years back to the most recent comparable fiscal year. Not per share: buybacks do not change this number, and a merger can appear as a growth jump. Per-share growth (which does include buybacks) is in the value-creation card.
+2.2%
Revenue growth 5 years ⓘMeasures the company's TOTAL revenue from reported annual statements: compound average growth per year (CAGR) from the fiscal year 3, 5 or N years back to the most recent comparable fiscal year. Not per share: buybacks do not change this number, and a merger can appear as a growth jump. Per-share growth (which does include buybacks) is in the value-creation card.
+1.8%
Start year 2020 (pandemic). Over 10 years: −10.7% a year
Revenue growth 26 years ⓘMeasures the company's TOTAL revenue from reported annual statements: compound average growth per year (CAGR) from the fiscal year 3, 5 or N years back to the most recent comparable fiscal year. Not per share: buybacks do not change this number, and a merger can appear as a growth jump. Per-share growth (which does include buybacks) is in the value-creation card.
−7.0%
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What shareholders gained per year (last 5 years) ⓘWhat the business itself delivers per year: earnings growth per share plus the dividend yield. This is what you get IF the market keeps valuing the stock the same way: it contains no assumption about the market changing its mind. Computed per share, so buybacks count and a merger does not pass as growth. For a company that pays no dividend it is pure earnings growth per share. Period: earnings growth per share as CAGR over the last 5 reported fiscal years (annual statements), plus the current dividend yield. The start value is the median of the three years around the start, so a single crisis year (a pandemic or a write-down) does not distort the rate.
+2.2%
Earnings growth per share plus dividend.
Earnings per share, growth per year−4.4%
Dividend (yield on the price)6.6%
Pace: 5 vs 10 years ⓘTwo data points, not a trend model: earnings growth per share over the last 5 fiscal years against the last 10. Labelled "steady" when both rates are within 3 percentage points of each other, otherwise picking up or flattening. Shown only when ten years of history exist.−4.4% vs 0.1%, slowing
Profit margin 2020 to 2025 ⓘOperating margin then vs now, from reported annual statements. A falling margin after a boom year is the classic peak-earnings signal: the growth rate then leans on an inflated base.54% → 30%
Start year 2020 (pandemic)
⚠ Revenue per share shrinking 29.2%/yr over ~10Y (margins intact) ⓘStructural-decline marker: revenue PER SHARE has fallen over the last decade (robust median trend, not a single year). Backtested across 2005 to 2017, such businesses trailed the market by about 2.5 percentage points per year. Display only: it does not change the fair value or the quality score.
Growth Forecast
A lot of optimism in the price
The price assumes more growth than the company has delivered so far.
What the price assumes ⓘThis turns our valuation around: instead of asking what the share is worth, it asks what growth the current price requires. It uses the cash the company keeps after all spending (free cash flow), the same discount rate as our models, five years of growth, then slowing evenly to 2 % a year by year ten. Compared with the analysts' sales forecasts extended to the same five years (at least three analysts, for context only, it does not enter the Fair Value): within 3 percentage points counts as "in line" (amber), below that little optimism (green), above that a lot of optimism (red).
+15.1%
Yearly growth needed for the next five years to justify today's price.
What forecasts expect
n/a
No analyst forecast available.
After inflation (figures in HKD, Hong Kong: IMF forecast 2.1% a year to 2030, 1.8% from 2016 to 2025) that is about +12.7% a year for the price.
Compare Sinopec Kantons Holdings Ltd ADR with another stock
Price, fair value, quality and upside side by side.
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Peer GroupⓘHow this stock ranks against its industry: the green marker is this stock, the band is the typical 25–75% peer range, and the tick is the median.Oil & Gas Midstream · 84 stocks
Beats the industry median on 5/13 measures
Overall it trails its industry peers.
Valuation
Quality Score63 · Top 25%
Fair Value upside−72.6% · Bottom 25%
Profitability
Return on equity (TTM)6.3% · Bottom 25%
Return on assets0.8% · Bottom 25%
Net margin (TTM)156.1% · Top 25%
Operating margin (TTM)22.8% · Below median
Growth and dividend
Revenue growth4.6% · Below median
Dividend yield (TTM)6.6% · Top 25%
Valuation Multiplesvs Oil & Gas Midstream median · lower = cheaper
P/E (TTM)8.9× · Cheaper than median
P/B0.55× · Cheapest 25%
P/S (TTM)13.83× · Priciest 25%
P/FCF44.7× · Priciest 25%
EV/EBITDA25.8× · Priciest 25%
Strength profile in five axes (Snowflake)
This stockSector peers
VALUE (fair-value potential)0· sector 21
FUTURE (revenue growth)23· sector 100
PAST (return on equity)25· sector 56
HEALTH (low debt)100· sector 56
DIVIDEND (yield)100· sector 85
VALUE 0: the price sits above our fair-value range.
For bloggers, editors and developers: paste this into your site or blog (a “Custom HTML” block in WordPress), it shows the current fair value and links back here. Free, plain HTML, and welcome. Full data streams (CSV/JSON) at /developers.
Is Sinopec Kantons Holdings Ltd (SPKOY) overvalued or undervalued?
As of Sep 24, 2026, our model estimates a fair value of $5.24 versus the last price from Sep 25, 2026 of $18.68, about −72% upside (overvalued).
What is the fair value of SPKOY?
Our model-based fair value for Sinopec Kantons Holdings Ltd ADR is $5.24 (as of Sep 24, 2026), built from audited fundamentals. Last price (from Sep 25, 2026): $18.68.
What is the quality score of SPKOY?
Sinopec Kantons Holdings Ltd ADR has a Quality Score of 63/100. It measures business quality (profitability, growth, cash flow, balance-sheet strength, investment discipline, share issuance). Market factors such as price momentum and volatility do not enter the number; they are shown separately in the detail view.
What is the price target for Sinopec Kantons Holdings Ltd (SPKOY)?
Our model-based price target is the fair value of $5.24 (as of Sep 24, 2026) from 24 valuation models. Cautious scenario $4.22, optimistic scenario $6.91. It is a calculation from audited fundamentals, not an analyst target.
What is the Sinopec Kantons Holdings Ltd ADR stock forecast for 2026?
Our models put fair value at $5.24, about −72% upside versus the last price from Sep 25, 2026 of $18.68 (overvalued). Cautious scenario $4.22, optimistic scenario $6.91. The calculation is refreshed regularly with new filings.
What is the revenue of Sinopec Kantons Holdings Ltd (SPKOY)?
Sinopec Kantons Holdings Ltd ADR reported trailing-twelve-month revenue of about HK$659M (latest available figure, as of Sep 24, 2026).
Does Sinopec Kantons Holdings Ltd ADR pay a dividend?
Sinopec Kantons Holdings Ltd ADR currently shows a dividend yield of about 6.55% relative to its recent price (as of Sep 24, 2026).
What growth is priced into Sinopec Kantons Holdings Ltd (SPKOY)?
For today's price to be fair in a discounted-cash-flow model, Sinopec Kantons Holdings Ltd ADR would have to grow free cash flow by +15.1 % per year for five years (discount rate 9.8 %, then slowing evenly to 2 % perpetual growth by year ten). Over the last 5 years revenue grew +1.8 % per year. As of Sep 24, 2026.
What discount rate (WACC) does the fair value of SPKOY use?
Our models discount Sinopec Kantons Holdings Ltd ADR at 9.8 %: a base by market capitalisation (small), damped by beta 0.34, country premium for USA. The same rate applies in all 26 models.
What is a reverse DCF?
A reverse DCF turns the usual calculation around. Instead of deriving a value from assumptions, it takes today's price as given and asks: what free-cash-flow growth would a company have to deliver for exactly this price to be fair? The result is not a forecast but the expectation already priced in. For Sinopec Kantons Holdings Ltd ADR that is +15.1 % per year a year over ten years, using the same discount rate (9.8 %) and the same formula as our fair value.
How much growth has Sinopec Kantons Holdings Ltd (SPKOY) delivered so far?
Over the past 5 years revenue at Sinopec Kantons Holdings Ltd ADR grew +1.8 % a year. The price currently implies +15.1 % per year free-cash-flow growth a year. Comparing the two shows how much confidence is in the price: if it demands more than has been delivered, the business has to accelerate for the maths to work.
How fast is the sector of Sinopec Kantons Holdings Ltd (SPKOY) growing?
The median revenue growth in the sector is +9.2 % a year. That is the yardstick for the growth priced into Sinopec Kantons Holdings Ltd ADR (+15.1 % per year a year): it shows whether the expectation is within the usual range or beyond it.
What is the free cash flow yield of Sinopec Kantons Holdings Ltd (SPKOY)?
The free-cash-flow yield on the price is 2.24 %: that much free cash flow Sinopec Kantons Holdings Ltd ADR produces per unit of market value. When it exceeds the discount rate of our models (9.8 %), the business already earns more than its cost of capital demands, and the price needs little additional growth.
What is the intrinsic value of Sinopec Kantons Holdings Ltd (SPKOY)?
Intrinsic value and fair value mean the same thing: what the business is worth on its numbers, independent of the share price. For Sinopec Kantons Holdings Ltd ADR it is $5.24 per share (as of Sep 24, 2026), against a price of $18.68. It is the blended result of 24 valuation models (cash flow, earnings, asset, dividend).
Is Sinopec Kantons Holdings Ltd ADR stock overvalued or undervalued in 2026?
As of Sep 24, 2026, SPKOY trades above its calculated fair value: price $18.68, fair value $5.24, a gap of about −72% (overvalued). The calculation is refreshed with each new quarterly report, so the verdict can change during the year.
Is fair value the same as the market price of SPKOY?
No. The price is what the market pays today ($18.68); the fair value is what the company's own numbers justify ($5.24). For Sinopec Kantons Holdings Ltd ADR the two are $13.44 per share apart. That gap is exactly why we show both numbers side by side.
How much is Sinopec Kantons Holdings Ltd ADR worth?
The market values Sinopec Kantons Holdings Ltd ADR at about $1.2B (market capitalisation, as of Sep 24, 2026). Per share that is $18.68; our models calculate a fair value of $5.24 per share.
What do the bullish and bearish scenarios say about SPKOY?
Our models span a range for Sinopec Kantons Holdings Ltd ADR: cautious scenario $4.22, base $5.24, optimistic $6.91 per share (as of Sep 24, 2026, price $18.68). The range comes from different growth and margin assumptions, not from analyst opinions.
What is the P/E ratio of SPKOY?
Sinopec Kantons Holdings Ltd ADR trades at a price-to-earnings ratio of 8.9 (as of Sep 24, 2026). A P/E on its own says little: it compares the price with ONE year of profit, while our fair value of $5.24 is built from several models across several years. Other multiples: P/B 0.6, P/S 13.8, EV/EBITDA 25.8.
How solid is the balance sheet of Sinopec Kantons Holdings Ltd (SPKOY)?
Balance-sheet figures for Sinopec Kantons Holdings Ltd ADR (as of Sep 24, 2026): return on equity 6.3%. They feed the Quality Score of 63/100, which measures business quality independently of the share price.
Which stocks are comparable to Sinopec Kantons Holdings Ltd ADR?
From the same area (Energy) we also value Enbridge Inc, The Williams Companies, Inc, Enterprise Products Partners L.P., Energy Transfer LP,, among others. Each of them has its own fair-value calculation on this site using the same models, so the comparison is like for like.
Is Sinopec Kantons Holdings Ltd ADR stock attractive at the current price?
The data as of Sep 24, 2026: price $18.68, calculated fair value $5.24 (−72%), Quality Score 63/100, from 24 models. Whether that fits your horizon and risk tolerance is your call. We provide the calculation, not investment advice.
How is the fair value of SPKOY calculated?
We run Sinopec Kantons Holdings Ltd ADR through 24 models from four families: discounted cash flow, earnings models, asset and balance-sheet models, and dividend models. Every model gets the same audited fundamentals; the result is the weighted average of $5.24, with the spread shown as a cautious and an optimistic scenario.
Is it still worth investing in stocks now?
The global stock market currently sits 14.5 % above its aggregate fair value. Sinopec Kantons Holdings Ltd ADR itself currently trades above fair value. An expensive market is no reason to stay out and no reason to buy everything at once: keep a broad savings plan running, buy single stocks only with money you can do without, and hold part of your money liquid while the market is high. The full picture including sectors is on is it worth investing now.
What is the share price of Sinopec Kantons Holdings Ltd (SPKOY)?
The latest price we hold is from Sep 25, 2026 and stands at $18.68. Our model-based fair value is $5.24, about −72% upside (overvalued). We carry closing prices from our data provider, not a live tick.
What should I pay attention to with Sinopec Kantons Holdings Ltd ADR right now?
The price sits above even our optimistic bull case ($6.91). The favourable scenario is already priced in. Solid but not exceptional quality (63/100) and above fair value, neither a clear bargain nor a standout compounder.
Where does the earnings growth of Sinopec Kantons Holdings Ltd (SPKOY) come from?
Earnings per share at Sinopec Kantons Holdings Ltd ADR grew +1.5 % a year from 2014 to 2025. Broken into its drivers: revenue per share −24.6 %, EBIT margin +13.7 %, tax rate +0.8 %, residual (interest, one-offs) +17.5 %. The four rates multiply to the earnings growth rate, they do not add up. Start and end are three-year averages so a single exceptional year does not distort the result.
Key figures of Sinopec Kantons Holdings Ltd ADR
How large is the market capitalisation of Sinopec Kantons Holdings Ltd (SPKOY)?
The market capitalisation of Sinopec Kantons Holdings Ltd ADR is $1.2B. The stock-market value of the whole company: share price times number of shares. It is what the market asks for the entire business today.
What is the P/S ratio of Sinopec Kantons Holdings Ltd (SPKOY)?
The price-to-sales ratio of Sinopec Kantons Holdings Ltd ADR is 13.8 (P/E × margin). Price to sales: market value relative to yearly revenue. Useful when profit is thin or distorted.
What are the earnings per share of Sinopec Kantons Holdings Ltd (SPKOY)?
Earnings per share at Sinopec Kantons Holdings Ltd ADR are $2.11 (price ÷ EPS = P/E 8.9). Earnings per share over the last twelve months: total profit spread across every single share.
What is the dividend yield of Sinopec Kantons Holdings Ltd (SPKOY)?
The dividend yield of Sinopec Kantons Holdings Ltd ADR is 6.6% (payout 58.0%). Yearly dividend relative to the share price. 3% pays 3 per 100 invested. Below: how much of profit is used for it.
What is the net margin of Sinopec Kantons Holdings Ltd (SPKOY)?
The net margin of Sinopec Kantons Holdings Ltd ADR is 156% (last twelve months). How much of every unit of revenue ends up as profit. 10% means 10 cents of profit per dollar of sales.
What is the return on equity of Sinopec Kantons Holdings Ltd (SPKOY)?
The return on equity (ROE) of Sinopec Kantons Holdings Ltd ADR is 6.3% (last twelve months). Profit relative to shareholders' equity, how efficiently the company works with its owners' money.
What is the EBIT return on assets of Sinopec Kantons Holdings Ltd (SPKOY)?
On an EBIT basis the return on assets of Sinopec Kantons Holdings Ltd ADR is 0.5% (avg 5y). Operating profit (EBIT) relative to everything the company owns, as a multi-year average. It describes the business model rather than one good or bad year.
What is the operating margin of Sinopec Kantons Holdings Ltd (SPKOY)?
The operating margin of Sinopec Kantons Holdings Ltd ADR is 22.8% (last twelve months). Profit from the core business (before interest and taxes) relative to revenue.
How fast is revenue growing at Sinopec Kantons Holdings Ltd (SPKOY)?
Revenue at Sinopec Kantons Holdings Ltd ADR is growing +4.6% versus a year earlier (3y avg +2.2%). How much revenue grew versus a year earlier (YoY). The 3-year average next to it puts the single year in context.
How fast are earnings growing at Sinopec Kantons Holdings Ltd (SPKOY)?
Earnings per share at Sinopec Kantons Holdings Ltd ADR are growing −5.5% versus a year earlier. How much earnings per share grew versus a year earlier.
How much net cash does Sinopec Kantons Holdings Ltd (SPKOY) hold?
Sinopec Kantons Holdings Ltd ADR holds more cash than debt, HK$389M net (fiscal year 2025). The company holds more cash than debt, a safety cushion.
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Broad data
Sep 24, 2026