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ARS Pharmaceuticals, Inc (SPRY) fair value: what the stock is really worth

As of Oct 2, 2026: fair value of ARS Pharmaceuticals, Inc $0.72, price $4.07, upside -82.3%, quality 31 out of 100. Calculated from audited financials with 26 valuation models and 37 quality factors, updated daily.

  1. Fair value above price? No
  2. Good quality? No
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Healthcare · US · ISIN US82835W1080

AP ARS Pharmaceuticals, Inc logo Thin data Sep 24, 2026

ARS Pharmaceuticals, Inc

SPRY · US

Weakest SetupStrongly overvalued and low quality.

!Fair value $0.7200 · Strongly overvalued (−82.3%)
!Quality 31/100
!Mixed Growth (revenue 5y +36.4 %/yr)
!Loss-making · -200.0% net margin (TTM)
!Moderate debt · negative free cash flow
!Trails peers (1/9)
!Narrow moat 9/100
!Evidence only low, so the estimate is less certain
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What runs behind every stock

26 valuation models 8 families, DCF to NCAV 37 quality factors margins, balance sheet, cashflow, debt 6 AI factors moat, what no ratio measures 2,000+ data points verified, per stock, median

69 individual criteria per stock, every one traceable See the method →

Price vs Fair Value

$35.22 $2.90 Fair Value $0.7200 Jul 2021 Oct 2026

White line = price, green steps = our fair value per fiscal year, dashed = 300-day average. As of Sep 24, 2026.

How to read this chart

60‑month range $2.90 – $35.22 · fair‑value band $0.4800 – $0.9000 · the $4.07 price screens above the $0.7200 fair value. Dashed = 300-day average. As of Sep 24, 2026.

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Company profile

ARS Pharmaceuticals, Inc., a biopharmaceutical company, develops and commercializes treatments for severe allergic reactions in the United States and internationally. The company is involved in the development of neffy, a needle-free intranasal delivery of epinephrine for emergency treatment of Type I allergic reactions, including anaphylaxis.

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ARS Pharmaceuticals, Inc., a biopharmaceutical company, develops and commercializes treatments for severe allergic reactions in the United States and internationally. The company is involved in the development of neffy, a needle-free intranasal delivery of epinephrine for emergency treatment of Type I allergic reactions, including anaphylaxis. ARS Pharmaceuticals, Inc. was founded in 2015 and is headquartered in San Diego, California.

Stock analysis

ARS Pharmaceuticals, Inc (SPRY) currently trades at $4.07, while our model-based Fair Value estimate is $0.7200, 82.3% below the price, so the stock looks overvalued today.

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Valuation

How firm this estimate is: it rests on 1 models at a data quality of 95/100, which puts the evidence level at low.

Scenario range: $0.4800 (bear) to $0.9000 (bull), the price of $4.07 sits above it. Bear and bull are the same models on cautious and optimistic assumptions, a range, not a price target.

Quality & growth

The Quality Score stands at 31/100 (below-average quality), in the Healthcare sector.

Mixed Growth: Revenue is growing, but margins or cash flow do not fully confirm the trend.

ARS Pharmaceuticals, Inc reported revenue of $84.3M in FY2025 versus $5.5M in FY2021, a compound +97.8%/yr. Reported net income was −$171M in FY2025.

Key figures

Market cap $991M · P/S ratio 10.0 · EPS (TTM) $−2.00 · Net margin −200% · Return on equity −136% · Return on assets (EBIT) −25.8% · Operating margin −265% · Revenue (TTM) $99.0M.

Competitive moat

Our AI-assisted moat analysis scores the competitive advantage at 28 out of 100 (medium confidence).

What moves the price

The share trades about 69% below its 52-week high and at its 52-week low, currently below its 200-day average.

For context, the median of 10 Healthcare peers we cover trades at 10% fair-value upside, at −82%, SPRY screens richer than that median.

Fair Value models

Bear $0.4800 Fair Value $0.7200 Bull $0.9000
Model ⓘEach model values the company its own way (discounted cash flow, earnings, assets, dividends). The fair value above is their evidence-weighted blend, not the output of a single model. Bear ⓘBear = the cautious scenario: the same model computed with conservative anchors (lower growth, margins and valuation multiples). Together with Bull it frames a plausible valuation range, not a price target.BaseBull ⓘBull = the optimistic scenario: the same model computed with favourable anchors (higher growth, margins and valuation multiples). Together with Bear it frames a plausible valuation range, not a price target. If a model's bull case is above four times its base value, the table shows that limit with a > sign (like the overall Bull above): beyond it no assumption holds. Evidence ⓘEvidence = how well-backed THIS model's estimate is for this stock (0–100): how complete and reliable its input data are, and how well the model fits the company. The final Fair Value is an evidence-weighted blend, so better-evidenced models count more. Green ≥70, amber 50–69, grey below 50.
Highest evidence
NCAV (Graham) $0.5800 $0.7700 $1.15 54
All 1 models by family
Asset-Based
NCAV (Graham) $0.5800 $0.7700 $1.15 54

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Quality Score breakdown

Overall quality 31/100

Of which business quality 31 · Market factors (momentum, volatility) 11

Profitability 9
Margins and returns on capital today
Quality Growth 18
Are margins and returns improving?
Cashflow 11
Earnings quality: real cash, not paper profit
Fin. Strength 36
Balance sheet, leverage, solvency risk
Investment 91
Disciplined investing over empire-building
Low Volatility 38
Calm price path (market factor)
Momentum 0
Price trend over the last 3–12 months (market factor)
52W Momentum 0
Distance to the 52-week high (market factor)
Net Issuance 50
Share count: buybacks or dilution?

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Revenue & earnings trend

Growth Quality ⓘGrowth is valuable only when reinvestment earns attractive returns (Aswath Damodaran): sustainable growth depends on return on capital, reinvestment and efficiency. Basis: total company revenue over the periods shown on the cards (3Y/5Y/all years), not per share, so a merger can show up as a growth jump; per-share earnings growth is in the value-creation card. 30/100
Revenue is growing, but margins or cash flow do not fully confirm the trend.
Revenue growth 1 year
−5.5%
Revenue growth 3 years ⓘMeasures the company's TOTAL revenue from reported annual statements: compound average growth per year (CAGR) from the fiscal year 3, 5 or N years back to the most recent comparable fiscal year. Not per share: buybacks do not change this number, and a merger can appear as a growth jump. Per-share growth (which does include buybacks) is in the value-creation card.
+300.1%
Revenue growth 5 years ⓘMeasures the company's TOTAL revenue from reported annual statements: compound average growth per year (CAGR) from the fiscal year 3, 5 or N years back to the most recent comparable fiscal year. Not per share: buybacks do not change this number, and a merger can appear as a growth jump. Per-share growth (which does include buybacks) is in the value-creation card.
+36.4%
Start year 2020 (pandemic)
Profit margin (trend) ⓘOperating margin then vs now, from reported annual statements. A falling margin after a boom year is the classic peak-earnings signal: the growth rate then leans on an inflated base.
−2.6% (2020) → −212.9% (2025)
What shareholders gained per year ⓘWe only publish this rate when it is defensible. Reason: fiscal 2025 is a loss year, no rate is defined from a loss
not computed

SPRY screens overvalued: fair value 82% below the price. Compare with Vertex Pharmaceuticals Incorporated →

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Peer GroupⓘHow this stock ranks against its industry: the green marker is this stock, the band is the typical 25–75% peer range, and the tick is the median.Biotechnology · 625 stocks

Beats the industry median on 1/8 measures
Overall it trails its industry peers.
Valuation
Quality Score 31 · Bottom 25%
Fair Value upside −82.5% · Bottom 25%
Profitability
Return on assets −41.2% · Bottom 25%
Net margin (TTM) −200.0% · Bottom 25%
Growth and dividend
Revenue growth 184.5% · Top 25%
Balance sheet
Debt / equity 0.84× · Highest 25%

Valuation Multiplesvs Biotechnology median · lower = cheaper

P/B 8.67× · Priciest 25%
P/S (TTM) 10.01× · Pricier than median

Strength profile in five axes (Snowflake)

VALUEFUTUREPASTHEALTHDIVIDEND
This stock
VALUEFUTUREPASTHEALTHDIVIDEND
Sector peers
VALUE (fair-value potential)0 · sector 0
FUTURE (revenue growth)100 · sector 0
PAST (return on equity)0 · sector 0
HEALTH (low debt)58 · sector 97
DIVIDEND (yield)0 · sector 22

VALUE 0: the price sits above our fair-value range.

Context: sector, industry, market

Values & ESG

Does this company touch areas you may want to avoid? The classification is inferred from sector and industry.

None of the checked exposures detected

Similar stocks

10 more Biotechnology stocks, each showing price versus our Fair Value estimate.

Stock Price Fair Value vs Fair Value
Vertex Pharmaceuticals Incorporated VRTX $527.67 $580.44 +10%
Regeneron Pharmaceuticals, Inc REGN $752.25 $1,275 +69%
argenx SE ARGX $959.49 $918.60 −4%
CSL Limited CSL A$175.35 A$192.89 +10%
Samsung Biologics Co 207940 1,354,000 KRW 1,489,400 KRW +10%
BeOne Medicines AG ONC $360.85 $280.94 −22%
Alnylam Pharmaceuticals, Inc ALNY $255.96 $217.88 −15%
Royalty Pharma plc RPRX $58.21 $19.01 −67%
Celltrion, Inc 068270 177,400 KRW 74,519 KRW −58%
WuXi Biologics (Cayman) Inc 2269 HK$53.00 HK$58.30 +10%

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ARS Pharmaceuticals, Inc · Fair Value
$0.7200 −82%Fair Value
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Cite: Fair Value Calculator (2026). "ARS Pharmaceuticals, Inc Fair Value". https://www.fairvalue-calculator.com/stock/SPRY

Frequently asked questions

Is ARS Pharmaceuticals, Inc (SPRY) overvalued or undervalued?
As of Sep 24, 2026, our model estimates a fair value of $0.7200 versus a price of $4.07, about −82% upside (overvalued).
What is the fair value of SPRY?
Our model-based fair value for ARS Pharmaceuticals, Inc is $0.7200 (as of Sep 24, 2026), built from audited fundamentals. The current price: $4.07.
What is the quality score of SPRY?
ARS Pharmaceuticals, Inc has a Quality Score of 31/100. It measures business quality (profitability, growth, cash flow, balance-sheet strength, investment discipline, share issuance). Market factors such as price momentum and volatility do not enter the number; they are shown separately in the detail view.
What is the price target for ARS Pharmaceuticals, Inc (SPRY)?
Our model-based price target is the fair value of $0.7200 (as of Sep 24, 2026) from 1 valuation models. Cautious scenario $0.4800, optimistic scenario $0.9000. It is a calculation from audited fundamentals, not an analyst target.
What is the ARS Pharmaceuticals, Inc stock forecast for 2026?
Our models put fair value at $0.7200, about −82% upside versus a price of $4.07 (overvalued). Cautious scenario $0.4800, optimistic scenario $0.9000. The calculation is refreshed regularly with new filings.
What is the revenue of ARS Pharmaceuticals, Inc (SPRY)?
ARS Pharmaceuticals, Inc reported trailing-twelve-month revenue of about $99.0M (latest available figure, as of Sep 24, 2026).
What is the intrinsic value of ARS Pharmaceuticals, Inc (SPRY)?
Intrinsic value and fair value mean the same thing: what the business is worth on its numbers, independent of the share price. For ARS Pharmaceuticals, Inc it is $0.7200 per share (as of Sep 24, 2026), against a price of $4.07. It is the blended result of 1 valuation models (cash flow, earnings, asset, dividend).
Is ARS Pharmaceuticals, Inc stock overvalued or undervalued in 2026?
As of Sep 24, 2026, SPRY trades above its calculated fair value: price $4.07, fair value $0.7200, a gap of about −82% (overvalued). The calculation is refreshed with each new quarterly report, so the verdict can change during the year.
Is fair value the same as the market price of SPRY?
No. The price is what the market pays today ($4.07); the fair value is what the company's own numbers justify ($0.7200). For ARS Pharmaceuticals, Inc the two are $3.35 per share apart. That gap is exactly why we show both numbers side by side.
How much is ARS Pharmaceuticals, Inc worth?
The market values ARS Pharmaceuticals, Inc at about $991M (market capitalisation, as of Sep 24, 2026). Per share that is $4.07; our models calculate a fair value of $0.7200 per share.
What do the bullish and bearish scenarios say about SPRY?
Our models span a range for ARS Pharmaceuticals, Inc: cautious scenario $0.4800, base $0.7200, optimistic $0.9000 per share (as of Sep 24, 2026, price $4.07). The range comes from different growth and margin assumptions, not from analyst opinions.
How solid is the balance sheet of ARS Pharmaceuticals, Inc (SPRY)?
Balance-sheet figures for ARS Pharmaceuticals, Inc (as of Sep 24, 2026): return on equity −136.4%, debt of 0.84 per unit of equity. They feed the Quality Score of 31/100, which measures business quality independently of the share price.
How far is SPRY from its 52-week high?
ARS Pharmaceuticals, Inc trades at $4.07, about 69% below its 52-week high of $13.06 and at the low of $4.07 (as of Oct 2, 2026). Distance from the high says nothing about value: that is what the fair value of $0.7200 is for.
Which stocks are comparable to ARS Pharmaceuticals, Inc?
From the same area (Healthcare) we also value Vertex Pharmaceuticals Incorporated, Regeneron Pharmaceuticals, Inc, argenx SE, CSL Limited, among others. Each of them has its own fair-value calculation on this site using the same models, so the comparison is like for like.
Is ARS Pharmaceuticals, Inc stock attractive at the current price?
The data as of Sep 24, 2026: price $4.07, calculated fair value $0.7200 (−82%), Quality Score 31/100, from 1 models. Whether that fits your horizon and risk tolerance is your call. We provide the calculation, not investment advice.
How is the fair value of SPRY calculated?
We run ARS Pharmaceuticals, Inc through 1 models from four families: discounted cash flow, earnings models, asset and balance-sheet models, and dividend models. Every model gets the same audited fundamentals; the result is the weighted average of $0.7200, with the spread shown as a cautious and an optimistic scenario.
Is it still worth investing in stocks now?
The global stock market currently sits 14.5 % above its aggregate fair value. ARS Pharmaceuticals, Inc itself currently trades above fair value. An expensive market is no reason to stay out and no reason to buy everything at once: keep a broad savings plan running, buy single stocks only with money you can do without, and hold part of your money liquid while the market is high. The full picture including sectors is on is it worth investing now.
What is the share price of ARS Pharmaceuticals, Inc (SPRY)?
The closing price on Oct 2, 2026 was $4.07. Our model-based fair value is $0.7200, about −82% upside (overvalued). We carry closing prices from our data provider, not a live tick.
What should I pay attention to with ARS Pharmaceuticals, Inc right now?
The price sits above even our optimistic bull case ($0.9000). The favourable scenario is already priced in. Weak quality (31/100) and above fair value at the same time, the margin of safety is missing on both counts. The large gap to fair value rests on thin data (low evidence): fewer applicable models and a shorter history. Read it with extra caution. A fairly wide model range ($0.4800 to $0.9000) leaves room in how you read the outcome.

Key figures of ARS Pharmaceuticals, Inc

How large is the market capitalisation of ARS Pharmaceuticals, Inc (SPRY)?
The market capitalisation of ARS Pharmaceuticals, Inc is $991M. The stock-market value of the whole company: share price times number of shares. It is what the market asks for the entire business today.
What is the P/S ratio of ARS Pharmaceuticals, Inc (SPRY)?
The price-to-sales ratio of ARS Pharmaceuticals, Inc is 10.0 (last twelve months). Price to sales: market value relative to yearly revenue. Useful when profit is thin or distorted.
What are the earnings per share of ARS Pharmaceuticals, Inc (SPRY)?
Earnings per share at ARS Pharmaceuticals, Inc are $−2.00. Earnings per share over the last twelve months: total profit spread across every single share.
What is the net margin of ARS Pharmaceuticals, Inc (SPRY)?
The net margin of ARS Pharmaceuticals, Inc is −200% (last twelve months). How much of every unit of revenue ends up as profit. 10% means 10 cents of profit per dollar of sales.
What is the return on equity of ARS Pharmaceuticals, Inc (SPRY)?
The return on equity (ROE) of ARS Pharmaceuticals, Inc is −136% (last twelve months). Profit relative to shareholders' equity, how efficiently the company works with its owners' money.
What is the EBIT return on assets of ARS Pharmaceuticals, Inc (SPRY)?
On an EBIT basis the return on assets of ARS Pharmaceuticals, Inc is −25.8% (avg 5y). Operating profit (EBIT) relative to everything the company owns, as a multi-year average. It describes the business model rather than one good or bad year.
What is the operating margin of ARS Pharmaceuticals, Inc (SPRY)?
The operating margin of ARS Pharmaceuticals, Inc is −265% (last twelve months). Profit from the core business (before interest and taxes) relative to revenue.
How fast is revenue growing at ARS Pharmaceuticals, Inc (SPRY)?
Revenue at ARS Pharmaceuticals, Inc is growing +185% versus a year earlier (3y avg +300%). How much revenue grew versus a year earlier (YoY). The 3-year average next to it puts the single year in context.
How much free cash flow does ARS Pharmaceuticals, Inc (SPRY) generate?
The free cash flow of ARS Pharmaceuticals, Inc is −$171M (fiscal year 2025). The cash truly left after running and investing in the business, this is what pays dividends and buybacks.
How much net debt does ARS Pharmaceuticals, Inc (SPRY) carry?
The net debt of ARS Pharmaceuticals, Inc is $55.1M (fiscal year 2025). Debt minus cash on hand. The note shows how many years of free cash flow could in theory pay it off.
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