Saferoads Holdings Ltd (SRH) fair value: what the stock is really worth
As of Oct 2, 2026: fair value of Saferoads Holdings Ltd A$0.30, price A$0.11, upside +185.7%, quality 63 out of 100. Calculated from audited financials with 26 valuation models and 37 quality factors, updated daily.
69 individual criteria per stock, every one traceableSee the method →
Price vs Fair Value
White line = price, green steps = our fair value per fiscal year, dashed = 300-day average. As of Oct 4, 2026.
How to read this chart
60‑month range A$0.0245 – A$0.1659 · fair‑value band A$0.2100 – A$0.3800 · the A$0.1050 price screens below the A$0.3000 fair value. Green steps = our fair value per fiscal year (point-in-time, no hindsight). Dashed = 300-day average. As of Oct 4, 2026.
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Saferoads Holdings Limited, together with its subsidiaries, provides road safety products and solutions in Australia, Europe, Asia, New Zealand, and the United States.
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Saferoads Holdings Limited, together with its subsidiaries, provides road safety products and solutions in Australia, Europe, Asia, New Zealand, and the United States. It offers flexible guideposts and signage products; rubber-based traffic calming products, including separation kerbing and wheel stops; variable messaging sign boards; permanent and temporary public solar lighting poles; and permanent and temporary crash cushions including bollards and safety barriers. The company serves state government departments, local councils, road and civil construction sectors. The company was founded in 1992 and is headquartered in Pakenham, Australia.
Stock analysis
Saferoads Holdings Ltd (SRH) currently trades at A$0.1050, while our model-based Fair Value estimate is A$0.3000, implying the stock looks roughly 65.0% undervalued today.
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Valuation
Bull case: the Growth Earnings group reads highest at a median of A$0.3400 per share, and 21 of the 24 models we run sit above the A$0.1050 price.
Bear case: the Dividend Discount group reads lowest at A$0.0500, and 3 of the 24 models stay below the price. Evidence for this calculation is low.
Scenario range: A$0.2100 (bear) to A$0.3800 (bull), the price of A$0.1050 sits below it. Bear and bull are the same models on cautious and optimistic assumptions, a range, not a price target.
Quality & growth
The Quality Score stands at 63/100 (solid quality), in the Industrials sector.
Weak Growth: Revenue growth is inconsistent: the periods point in different directions, so there is no trend to rely on.
Saferoads Holdings Ltd reported revenue of A$12.5M in FY2026 versus A$12.3M in FY2022, a compound +0.2%/yr. Reported net income was A$711K in FY2026, compounding +82.4%/yr from FY2022.
Key figures
Market cap A$4.6M (≈ $3.2M) · P/E ratio 5.3 · P/S ratio 0.30 · EPS (TTM) A$0.0200 · Dividend yield 9.5% · Net margin 5.7% · Return on equity 14.3% · Return on assets (EBIT) 1.8%.
Competitive moat
Our AI-assisted moat analysis scores the competitive advantage at 48 out of 100 (low confidence).
What moves the price
The share trades about 18% below its 52-week high and 31% above its 52-week low, currently above its 200-day average.
For context, the median of 10 Industrials peers we cover trades at −38% fair-value upside, at 186%, SRH screens cheaper than that median.
Fair Value models
Bear A$0.2100Fair Value A$0.3000Bull A$0.3800
Price A$0.1050 · Upside +185.7%
Model ⓘEach model values the company its own way (discounted cash flow, earnings, assets, dividends). The fair value above is their evidence-weighted blend, not the output of a single model. Based on fiscal year 2026 figures (about 3 months old). Earnings retained since then (A$0.0027 per share) are deliberately not added.Bear ⓘBear = the cautious scenario: the same model computed with conservative anchors (lower growth, margins and valuation multiples). Together with Bull it frames a plausible valuation range, not a price target.BaseBull ⓘBull = the optimistic scenario: the same model computed with favourable anchors (higher growth, margins and valuation multiples). Together with Bear it frames a plausible valuation range, not a price target. If a model's bull case is above four times its base value, the table shows that limit with a > sign (like the overall Bull above): beyond it no assumption holds.Evidence ⓘEvidence = how well-backed THIS model's estimate is for this stock (0–100): how complete and reliable its input data are, and how well the model fits the company. The final Fair Value is an evidence-weighted blend, so better-evidenced models count more. Green ≥70, amber 50–69, grey below 50.
Growth Quality ⓘGrowth is valuable only when reinvestment earns attractive returns (Aswath Damodaran): sustainable growth depends on return on capital, reinvestment and efficiency. Basis: total company revenue over the periods shown on the cards (3Y/5Y/all years), not per share, so a merger can show up as a growth jump; per-share earnings growth is in the value-creation card.40/100
Revenue growth is inconsistent: the periods point in different directions, so there is no trend to rely on.
Revenue growth 1 year
+109.6%
Revenue growth 3 years ⓘMeasures the company's TOTAL revenue from reported annual statements: compound average growth per year (CAGR) from the fiscal year 3, 5 or N years back to the most recent comparable fiscal year. Not per share: buybacks do not change this number, and a merger can appear as a growth jump. Per-share growth (which does include buybacks) is in the value-creation card.
−5.2%
Revenue growth 5 years ⓘMeasures the company's TOTAL revenue from reported annual statements: compound average growth per year (CAGR) from the fiscal year 3, 5 or N years back to the most recent comparable fiscal year. Not per share: buybacks do not change this number, and a merger can appear as a growth jump. Per-share growth (which does include buybacks) is in the value-creation card.
−1.2%
Start year 2021 (pandemic). Over 10 years: −2.4% a year
Revenue growth 22 years ⓘMeasures the company's TOTAL revenue from reported annual statements: compound average growth per year (CAGR) from the fiscal year 3, 5 or N years back to the most recent comparable fiscal year. Not per share: buybacks do not change this number, and a merger can appear as a growth jump. Per-share growth (which does include buybacks) is in the value-creation card.
−1.1%
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What shareholders gained per year (last 5 years) ⓘWhat the business itself delivers per year: earnings growth per share plus the dividend yield. This is what you get IF the market keeps valuing the stock the same way: it contains no assumption about the market changing its mind. Computed per share, so buybacks count and a merger does not pass as growth. For a company that pays no dividend it is pure earnings growth per share. Period: earnings growth per share as CAGR over the last 5 reported fiscal years (annual statements), plus the current dividend yield. The start value is the median of the three years around the start, so a single crisis year (a pandemic or a write-down) does not distort the rate.
+12.9%
Earnings growth per share plus dividend.
Earnings per share, growth per year+3.4%
Dividend (yield on the price)9.5%
Pace: 5 vs 10 years ⓘTwo data points, not a trend model: earnings growth per share over the last 5 fiscal years against the last 10. Labelled "steady" when both rates are within 3 percentage points of each other, otherwise picking up or flattening. Shown only when ten years of history exist.3.4% vs 17.5%, slowing
Profit margin 2021 to 2026 ⓘOperating margin then vs now, from reported annual statements. A falling margin after a boom year is the classic peak-earnings signal: the growth rate then leans on an inflated base.6% → 6%
Start year 2021 (pandemic)
⚠ Revenue per share shrinking 9.7%/yr over ~10Y (margin trend unclear) ⓘStructural-decline marker: revenue PER SHARE has fallen over the last decade (robust median trend, not a single year). Backtested across 2005 to 2017, such businesses trailed the market by about 2.5 percentage points per year. Display only: it does not change the fair value or the quality score.
Growth Forecast
A lot of optimism in the price
The price assumes more growth than the company has delivered so far.
What the price assumes ⓘThis turns our valuation around: instead of asking what the share is worth, it asks what growth the current price requires. It uses the cash the company keeps after all spending (free cash flow), the same discount rate as our models, five years of growth, then slowing evenly to 2 % a year by year ten. Compared with the analysts' sales forecasts extended to the same five years (at least three analysts, for context only, it does not enter the Fair Value): within 3 percentage points counts as "in line" (amber), below that little optimism (green), above that a lot of optimism (red).
+5.2%
Yearly growth needed for the next five years to justify today's price.
What forecasts expect
n/a
No analyst forecast available.
After inflation (Australia: IMF forecast 3.0% a year to 2030, 2.9% from 2016 to 2025) that is about +2.2% a year for the price.
Price, fair value, quality and upside side by side.
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Peer GroupⓘHow this stock ranks against its industry: the green marker is this stock, the band is the typical 25–75% peer range, and the tick is the median.Industrial Distribution · 110 stocks
Beats the industry median on 13/14 measures
Overall it ranks above its industry peers.
Valuation
Quality Score63 · Above median
Fair Value upside+185.7% · Top 25%
Profitability
Return on equity (TTM)14.3% · Above median
Return on assets5.1% · Above median
Net margin (TTM)5.7% · Above median
Operating margin (TTM)4.3% · Below median
Growth and dividend
Revenue growth116.8% · Top 25%
Dividend yield (TTM)9.5% · Top 25%
Balance sheet
Debt / equity0.01× · Below median
Valuation Multiplesvs Industrial Distribution median · lower = cheaper
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Is Saferoads Holdings Ltd (SRH) overvalued or undervalued?
As of Oct 4, 2026, our model estimates a fair value of A$0.3000 versus a price of A$0.1050, about +186% upside (undervalued).
What is the fair value of SRH?
Our model-based fair value for Saferoads Holdings Ltd is A$0.3000 (as of Oct 4, 2026), built from audited fundamentals. The current price: A$0.1050.
What is the quality score of SRH?
Saferoads Holdings Ltd has a Quality Score of 63/100. It measures business quality (profitability, growth, cash flow, balance-sheet strength, investment discipline, share issuance). Market factors such as price momentum and volatility do not enter the number; they are shown separately in the detail view.
What is the price target for Saferoads Holdings Ltd (SRH)?
Our model-based price target is the fair value of A$0.3000 (as of Oct 4, 2026) from 24 valuation models. Cautious scenario A$0.2100, optimistic scenario A$0.3800. It is a calculation from audited fundamentals, not an analyst target.
What is the Saferoads Holdings Ltd stock forecast for 2026?
Our models put fair value at A$0.3000, about +186% upside versus a price of A$0.1050 (undervalued). Cautious scenario A$0.2100, optimistic scenario A$0.3800. The calculation is refreshed regularly with new filings.
What is the revenue of Saferoads Holdings Ltd (SRH)?
Saferoads Holdings Ltd reported trailing-twelve-month revenue of about A$12.5M (latest available figure, as of Oct 4, 2026).
Does Saferoads Holdings Ltd pay a dividend?
Saferoads Holdings Ltd currently shows a dividend yield of about 9.52% relative to its recent price (as of Oct 4, 2026).
What growth is priced into Saferoads Holdings Ltd (SRH)?
For today's price to be fair in a discounted-cash-flow model, Saferoads Holdings Ltd would have to grow free cash flow by +5.2 % per year for five years (discount rate 9.5 %, then slowing evenly to 2 % perpetual growth by year ten). Over the last 5 years revenue grew -1.2 % per year. As of Oct 4, 2026.
What discount rate (WACC) does the fair value of SRH use?
Our models discount Saferoads Holdings Ltd at 9.5 %: a base by market capitalisation (nano), country premium for Australia. The same rate applies in all 26 models.
What is a reverse DCF?
A reverse DCF turns the usual calculation around. Instead of deriving a value from assumptions, it takes today's price as given and asks: what free-cash-flow growth would a company have to deliver for exactly this price to be fair? The result is not a forecast but the expectation already priced in. For Saferoads Holdings Ltd that is +5.2 % per year a year over ten years, using the same discount rate (9.5 %) and the same formula as our fair value.
How much growth has Saferoads Holdings Ltd (SRH) delivered so far?
Over the past 5 years revenue at Saferoads Holdings Ltd grew -1.2 % a year. The price currently implies +5.2 % per year free-cash-flow growth a year. Comparing the two shows how much confidence is in the price: if it demands more than has been delivered, the business has to accelerate for the maths to work.
How fast is the sector of Saferoads Holdings Ltd (SRH) growing?
The median revenue growth in the sector is +10.4 % a year. That is the yardstick for the growth priced into Saferoads Holdings Ltd (+5.2 % per year a year): it shows whether the expectation is within the usual range or beyond it.
What is the free cash flow yield of Saferoads Holdings Ltd (SRH)?
The free-cash-flow yield on the price is 6.57 %: that much free cash flow Saferoads Holdings Ltd produces per unit of market value. When it exceeds the discount rate of our models (9.5 %), the business already earns more than its cost of capital demands, and the price needs little additional growth.
What is the intrinsic value of Saferoads Holdings Ltd (SRH)?
Intrinsic value and fair value mean the same thing: what the business is worth on its numbers, independent of the share price. For Saferoads Holdings Ltd it is A$0.3000 per share (as of Oct 4, 2026), against a price of A$0.1050. It is the blended result of 24 valuation models (cash flow, earnings, asset, dividend).
Is Saferoads Holdings Ltd stock overvalued or undervalued in 2026?
As of Oct 4, 2026, SRH trades below its calculated fair value: price A$0.1050, fair value A$0.3000, a gap of about +186% (undervalued). The calculation is refreshed with each new quarterly report, so the verdict can change during the year.
Is fair value the same as the market price of SRH?
No. The price is what the market pays today (A$0.1050); the fair value is what the company's own numbers justify (A$0.3000). For Saferoads Holdings Ltd the two are A$0.1950 per share apart. That gap is exactly why we show both numbers side by side.
How much is Saferoads Holdings Ltd worth?
The market values Saferoads Holdings Ltd at about A$4.6M (market capitalisation, as of Oct 4, 2026). Per share that is A$0.1050; our models calculate a fair value of A$0.3000 per share.
What do the bullish and bearish scenarios say about SRH?
Our models span a range for Saferoads Holdings Ltd: cautious scenario A$0.2100, base A$0.3000, optimistic A$0.3800 per share (as of Oct 4, 2026, price A$0.1050). The range comes from different growth and margin assumptions, not from analyst opinions.
What is the P/E ratio of SRH?
Saferoads Holdings Ltd trades at a price-to-earnings ratio of 5.3 (as of Oct 4, 2026). A P/E on its own says little: it compares the price with ONE year of profit, while our fair value of A$0.3000 is built from several models across several years. Other multiples: P/B 0.6, P/S 0.3, EV/EBITDA 0.8.
How solid is the balance sheet of Saferoads Holdings Ltd (SRH)?
Balance-sheet figures for Saferoads Holdings Ltd (as of Oct 4, 2026): return on equity 14.3%, debt of 0.01 per unit of equity. They feed the Quality Score of 63/100, which measures business quality independently of the share price.
How far is SRH from its 52-week high?
Saferoads Holdings Ltd trades at A$0.1050, about 18% below its 52-week high of A$0.1280 and 31% above the low of A$0.0800 (as of Oct 2, 2026). Distance from the high says nothing about value: that is what the fair value of A$0.3000 is for.
Which stocks are comparable to Saferoads Holdings Ltd?
From the same area (Industrials) we also value W.W. Grainger, Inc, Fastenal Company, Ferguson Enterprises Inc, WESCO International, Inc, among others. Each of them has its own fair-value calculation on this site using the same models, so the comparison is like for like.
Is Saferoads Holdings Ltd stock attractive at the current price?
The data as of Oct 4, 2026: price A$0.1050, calculated fair value A$0.3000 (+186%), Quality Score 63/100, from 24 models. Whether that fits your horizon and risk tolerance is your call. We provide the calculation, not investment advice.
How is the fair value of SRH calculated?
We run Saferoads Holdings Ltd through 24 models from four families: discounted cash flow, earnings models, asset and balance-sheet models, and dividend models. Every model gets the same audited fundamentals; the result is the weighted average of A$0.3000, with the spread shown as a cautious and an optimistic scenario.
Is it still worth investing in stocks now?
The global stock market currently sits 15.0 % above its aggregate fair value. Saferoads Holdings Ltd currently trades 65 % below its own fair value, and the market average says nothing about that. An expensive market is no reason to stay out and no reason to buy everything at once: keep a broad savings plan running, buy single stocks only with money you can do without, and hold part of your money liquid while the market is high. The full picture including sectors is on is it worth investing now.
What is the share price of Saferoads Holdings Ltd (SRH)?
The closing price on Oct 2, 2026 was A$0.1050. Our model-based fair value is A$0.3000, about +186% upside (undervalued). We carry closing prices from our data provider, not a live tick.
What should I pay attention to with Saferoads Holdings Ltd right now?
The price is below even our cautious bear case (A$0.2100). The market is more pessimistic than our downside scenario. The large gap to fair value rests on thin data (low evidence): fewer applicable models and a shorter history. Read it with extra caution. Solid quality (63/100) at a price below fair value, the discount is the argument here, not the business quality. A fairly wide model range (A$0.2100 to A$0.3800) leaves room in how you read the outcome.
Key figures of Saferoads Holdings Ltd
How large is the market capitalisation of Saferoads Holdings Ltd (SRH)?
The market capitalisation of Saferoads Holdings Ltd is A$4.6M (≈ $3.2M). The stock-market value of the whole company: share price times number of shares. It is what the market asks for the entire business today.
What is the P/S ratio of Saferoads Holdings Ltd (SRH)?
The price-to-sales ratio of Saferoads Holdings Ltd is 0.30 (P/E × margin). Price to sales: market value relative to yearly revenue. Useful when profit is thin or distorted.
What are the earnings per share of Saferoads Holdings Ltd (SRH)?
Earnings per share at Saferoads Holdings Ltd are A$0.0200 (price ÷ EPS = P/E 5.3). Earnings per share over the last twelve months: total profit spread across every single share.
What is the dividend yield of Saferoads Holdings Ltd (SRH)?
The dividend yield of Saferoads Holdings Ltd is 9.5% (payout 50.0%). Yearly dividend relative to the share price. 3% pays 3 per 100 invested. Below: how much of profit is used for it.
What is the net margin of Saferoads Holdings Ltd (SRH)?
The net margin of Saferoads Holdings Ltd is 5.7% (fiscal year 2026). How much of every unit of revenue ends up as profit. 10% means 10 cents of profit per dollar of sales.
What is the return on equity of Saferoads Holdings Ltd (SRH)?
The return on equity (ROE) of Saferoads Holdings Ltd is 14.3% (last twelve months). Profit relative to shareholders' equity, how efficiently the company works with its owners' money.
What is the EBIT return on assets of Saferoads Holdings Ltd (SRH)?
On an EBIT basis the return on assets of Saferoads Holdings Ltd is 1.8% (avg 5y). Operating profit (EBIT) relative to everything the company owns, as a multi-year average. It describes the business model rather than one good or bad year.
What is the operating margin of Saferoads Holdings Ltd (SRH)?
The operating margin of Saferoads Holdings Ltd is 4.3% (last twelve months). Profit from the core business (before interest and taxes) relative to revenue.
How fast is revenue growing at Saferoads Holdings Ltd (SRH)?
Revenue at Saferoads Holdings Ltd is growing +117% versus a year earlier (3y avg −5.2%). How much revenue grew versus a year earlier (YoY). The 3-year average next to it puts the single year in context.
How fast are earnings growing at Saferoads Holdings Ltd (SRH)?
Earnings per share at Saferoads Holdings Ltd are growing −95.2% versus a year earlier. How much earnings per share grew versus a year earlier.
How much net cash does Saferoads Holdings Ltd (SRH) hold?
Saferoads Holdings Ltd holds more cash than debt, A$507K net (fiscal year 2026). The company holds more cash than debt, a safety cushion.
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