Surefire Resources NL (SRN) fair value: what the stock is really worth
As of Sep 24, 2026: fair value of Surefire Resources NL A$0.02, price A$0.02, upside -23.5%, quality 18 out of 100. Calculated from audited financials with 26 valuation models and 37 quality factors, updated daily.
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Price vs Fair Value
White line = price, green steps = our fair value per fiscal year, dashed = 300-day average. As of Sep 23, 2026.
How to read this chart
60‑month range A$0.0180 – A$1.10 · fair‑value band A$0.0153 – A$0.0170 · the A$0.0200 price screens above the A$0.0153 fair value. Green steps = our fair value per fiscal year (point-in-time, no hindsight). Dashed = 300-day average. As of Sep 23, 2026.
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Surefire Resources NL, together with its subsidiaries, explores for and reviews mineral tenement holdings in Western Australia. The company explores for critical mineral, gold, titanium, aluminium, copper, lead, silver, vanadium, iron ore, nickel, and platinum group element deposits.
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Surefire Resources NL, together with its subsidiaries, explores for and reviews mineral tenement holdings in Western Australia. The company explores for critical mineral, gold, titanium, aluminium, copper, lead, silver, vanadium, iron ore, nickel, and platinum group element deposits. Its flagship project is the Victory Bore vanadium-titanium-iron project, which consists of the Victory Bore and Unaly Hill deposits located in the mid-west of Western Australia. The company was formerly known as Black Ridge Mining NL and changed its name to Surefire Resources NL in December 2016. The company was incorporated in 1998 and is based in South Perth, Australia.
Stock analysis
Surefire Resources NL (SRN) currently trades at A$0.0200, while our model-based Fair Value estimate is A$0.0153, implying the stock looks roughly 30.7% overvalued today.
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Valuation
How firm this estimate is: it rests on 1 models at a data quality of 95/100, which puts the evidence level at low.
Scenario range: A$0.0153 (bear) to A$0.0170 (bull), the price of A$0.0200 sits above it. Bear and bull are the same models on cautious and optimistic assumptions, a range, not a price target.
Quality & growth
The Quality Score stands at 18/100 (below-average quality), in the Basic Materials sector.
Mixed Growth: Revenue is growing, but margins or cash flow do not fully confirm the trend.
Surefire Resources NL reported revenue of A$439K in FY2025 versus A$267 in FY2021, a compound +536.9%/yr. Reported net income was −A$694K in FY2025.
Key figures
Market cap A$4.3M (≈ $3.1M) · EPS (TTM) A$−0.0200 · Return on equity −53.6% · Return on assets (EBIT) −44.9% · Operating margin −2,940% · Revenue growth (YoY) −90.4% · Free cash flow −A$2.2M · Net cash A$269K.
Competitive moat
Our AI-assisted moat analysis scores the competitive advantage at 33 out of 100 (low confidence).
What moves the price
The share trades about 73% below its 52-week high and 11% above its 52-week low, currently below its 200-day average.
For context, the median of 10 Basic Materials peers we cover trades at 10% fair-value upside, at −24%, SRN screens richer than that median.
Fair Value models
Bear A$0.0153Fair Value A$0.0153Bull A$0.0170
Model ⓘEach model values the company its own way (discounted cash flow, earnings, assets, dividends). The fair value above is their evidence-weighted blend, not the output of a single model.Bear ⓘBear = the cautious scenario: the same model computed with conservative anchors (lower growth, margins and valuation multiples). Together with Bull it frames a plausible valuation range, not a price target.BaseBull ⓘBull = the optimistic scenario: the same model computed with favourable anchors (higher growth, margins and valuation multiples). Together with Bear it frames a plausible valuation range, not a price target.Evidence ⓘEvidence = how well-backed THIS model's estimate is for this stock (0–100): how complete and reliable its input data are, and how well the model fits the company. The final Fair Value is an evidence-weighted blend, so better-evidenced models count more. Green ≥70, amber 50–69, grey below 50.
Growth Quality ⓘGrowth is valuable only when reinvestment earns attractive returns (Aswath Damodaran): sustainable growth depends on return on capital, reinvestment and efficiency. Basis: total company revenue over the periods shown on the cards (3Y/5Y/all years), not per share, so a merger can show up as a growth jump; per-share earnings growth is in the value-creation card.23/100
Revenue is growing, but margins or cash flow do not fully confirm the trend.
Revenue growth 1 year
−32.8%
Revenue growth 3 years ⓘMeasures the company's TOTAL revenue from reported annual statements: compound average growth per year (CAGR) from the fiscal year 3, 5 or N years back to the most recent comparable fiscal year. Not per share: buybacks do not change this number, and a merger can appear as a growth jump. Per-share growth (which does include buybacks) is in the value-creation card.
+758.6%
Revenue growth 5 years ⓘMeasures the company's TOTAL revenue from reported annual statements: compound average growth per year (CAGR) from the fiscal year 3, 5 or N years back to the most recent comparable fiscal year. Not per share: buybacks do not change this number, and a merger can appear as a growth jump. Per-share growth (which does include buybacks) is in the value-creation card.
+339.8%
Start year 2020 (pandemic)
Revenue growth 24 years ⓘMeasures the company's TOTAL revenue from reported annual statements: compound average growth per year (CAGR) from the fiscal year 3, 5 or N years back to the most recent comparable fiscal year. Not per share: buybacks do not change this number, and a merger can appear as a growth jump. Per-share growth (which does include buybacks) is in the value-creation card.
+2.6%
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Profit margin (trend) ⓘOperating margin then vs now, from reported annual statements. A falling margin after a boom year is the classic peak-earnings signal: the growth rate then leans on an inflated base.
−413,722.8% (2020) → −568.8% (2025)
What shareholders gained per year ⓘWe only publish this rate when it is defensible. Reason: fiscal 2025 is a loss year, no rate is defined from a loss
Price, fair value, quality and upside side by side.
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Peer GroupⓘHow this stock ranks against its industry: the green marker is this stock, the band is the typical 25–75% peer range, and the tick is the median.Other Industrial Metals & Mining · 457 stocks
Beats the industry median on 3/7 measures
A mixed picture versus its industry peers.
Valuation
Quality Score23 · Bottom 25%
Fair Value upside−24% · Above median
Profitability
Return on assets−12% · Below median
Net margin (TTM)−158% · Bottom 25%
Growth and dividend
Revenue growth−90% · Bottom 25%
Balance sheet
Debt / equity0.02× · Below median
Valuation Multiplesvs Other Industrial Metals & Mining median · lower = cheaper
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Is Surefire Resources NL (SRN) overvalued or undervalued?
As of Sep 23, 2026, our model estimates a fair value of A$0.0153 versus a price of A$0.0200, about −24% upside (overvalued).
What is the fair value of SRN?
Our model-based fair value for Surefire Resources NL is A$0.0153 (as of Sep 23, 2026), built from audited fundamentals. The current price: A$0.0200.
What is the quality score of SRN?
Surefire Resources NL has a Quality Score of 18/100. It measures business quality (profitability, growth, cash flow, balance-sheet strength, investment discipline, share issuance). Market factors such as price momentum and volatility do not enter the number; they are shown separately in the detail view.
What is the price target for Surefire Resources NL (SRN)?
Our model-based price target is the fair value of A$0.0153 (as of Sep 23, 2026) from 1 valuation models. Cautious scenario A$0.0153, optimistic scenario A$0.0170. It is a calculation from audited fundamentals, not an analyst target.
What is the Surefire Resources NL stock forecast for 2026?
Our models put fair value at A$0.0153, about −24% upside versus a price of A$0.0200 (overvalued). Cautious scenario A$0.0153, optimistic scenario A$0.0170. The calculation is refreshed regularly with new filings.
What is the intrinsic value of Surefire Resources NL (SRN)?
Intrinsic value and fair value mean the same thing: what the business is worth on its numbers, independent of the share price. For Surefire Resources NL it is A$0.0153 per share (as of Sep 23, 2026), against a price of A$0.0200. It is the blended result of 1 valuation models (cash flow, earnings, asset, dividend).
Is Surefire Resources NL stock overvalued or undervalued in 2026?
As of Sep 23, 2026, SRN trades above its calculated fair value: price A$0.0200, fair value A$0.0153, a gap of about −24% (overvalued). The calculation is refreshed with each new quarterly report, so the verdict can change during the year.
Is fair value the same as the market price of SRN?
No. The price is what the market pays today (A$0.0200); the fair value is what the company's own numbers justify (A$0.0153). For Surefire Resources NL the two are A$0.0047 per share apart. That gap is exactly why we show both numbers side by side.
How much is Surefire Resources NL worth?
The market values Surefire Resources NL at about A$4.3M (market capitalisation, as of Sep 23, 2026). Per share that is A$0.0200; our models calculate a fair value of A$0.0153 per share.
What do the bullish and bearish scenarios say about SRN?
Our models span a range for Surefire Resources NL: cautious scenario A$0.0153, base A$0.0153, optimistic A$0.0170 per share (as of Sep 23, 2026, price A$0.0200). The range comes from different growth and margin assumptions, not from analyst opinions.
How solid is the balance sheet of Surefire Resources NL (SRN)?
Balance-sheet figures for Surefire Resources NL (as of Sep 23, 2026): return on equity −53.6%, debt of 0.02 per unit of equity. They feed the Quality Score of 18/100, which measures business quality independently of the share price.
How far is SRN from its 52-week high?
Surefire Resources NL trades at A$0.0200, about 73% below its 52-week high of A$0.0750 and 11% above the low of A$0.0180 (as of Sep 24, 2026). Distance from the high says nothing about value: that is what the fair value of A$0.0153 is for.
Which stocks are comparable to Surefire Resources NL?
From the same area (Basic Materials) we also value Vale S.A, Saudi Arabian Mining Company, CMOC Group, China Tungsten And Hightech Materials Co, among others. Each of them has its own fair-value calculation on this site using the same models, so the comparison is like for like.
Is Surefire Resources NL stock attractive at the current price?
The data as of Sep 23, 2026: price A$0.0200, calculated fair value A$0.0153 (−24%), Quality Score 18/100, from 1 models. Whether that fits your horizon and risk tolerance is your call. We provide the calculation, not investment advice.
How is the fair value of SRN calculated?
We run Surefire Resources NL through 1 models from four families: discounted cash flow, earnings models, asset and balance-sheet models, and dividend models. Every model gets the same audited fundamentals; the result is the weighted average of A$0.0153, with the spread shown as a cautious and an optimistic scenario.
Is it still worth investing in stocks now?
The global stock market currently sits 13.0 % above its aggregate fair value. Surefire Resources NL itself currently trades above fair value. An expensive market is no reason to stay out and no reason to buy everything at once: keep a broad savings plan running, buy single stocks only with money you can do without, and hold part of your money liquid while the market is high. The full picture including sectors is on is it worth investing now.
What is the share price of Surefire Resources NL (SRN)?
The closing price on Sep 24, 2026 was A$0.0200. Our model-based fair value is A$0.0153, about −24% upside (overvalued). We carry closing prices from our data provider, not a live tick.
What should I pay attention to with Surefire Resources NL right now?
The price sits above even our optimistic bull case (A$0.0170). The favourable scenario is already priced in. Weak quality (18/100) and above fair value at the same time, the margin of safety is missing on both counts. The models converge in a tight band (A$0.0153 to A$0.0170), unusually little disagreement for a valuation. Evidence is limited here (fewer models, shorter history), so the fair value is a rougher estimate than usual.
Key figures of Surefire Resources NL
How large is the market capitalisation of Surefire Resources NL (SRN)?
The market capitalisation of Surefire Resources NL is A$4.3M (≈ $3.1M). The stock-market value of the whole company: share price times number of shares. It is what the market asks for the entire business today.
What are the earnings per share of Surefire Resources NL (SRN)?
Earnings per share at Surefire Resources NL are A$−0.0200. Earnings per share over the last twelve months: total profit spread across every single share.
What is the return on equity of Surefire Resources NL (SRN)?
The return on equity (ROE) of Surefire Resources NL is −53.6% (last twelve months). Profit relative to shareholders' equity, how efficiently the company works with its owners' money.
What is the EBIT return on assets of Surefire Resources NL (SRN)?
On an EBIT basis the return on assets of Surefire Resources NL is −44.9% (avg 5y). Operating profit (EBIT) relative to everything the company owns, as a multi-year average. It describes the business model rather than one good or bad year.
What is the operating margin of Surefire Resources NL (SRN)?
The operating margin of Surefire Resources NL is −2,940% (last twelve months). Profit from the core business (before interest and taxes) relative to revenue.
How fast is revenue growing at Surefire Resources NL (SRN)?
Revenue at Surefire Resources NL is growing −90.4% versus a year earlier (3y avg +759%). How much revenue grew versus a year earlier (YoY). The 3-year average next to it puts the single year in context.
How much free cash flow does Surefire Resources NL (SRN) generate?
The free cash flow of Surefire Resources NL is −A$2.2M (fiscal year 2025). The cash truly left after running and investing in the business, this is what pays dividends and buybacks.
How much net cash does Surefire Resources NL (SRN) hold?
Surefire Resources NL holds more cash than debt, A$269K net (fiscal year 2025). The company holds more cash than debt, a safety cushion.
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