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Afentra plc (STGAF) fair value: what the stock is really worth

We calculate from audited financials what Afentra plc is really worth. The fair value tells you whether the price is too high or too low, the quality score (0 to 100) how solid the business behind it is. 26 models, 37 quality factors, updated daily.

  1. Fair value above price? No
  2. Good quality? No
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Energy · US · ISIN GB00B4X3Q493

AP Afentra plc logo Thin data Sep 13, 2026

Afentra plc

STGAF · US

Weakest SetupStrongly overvalued and low quality.

!Fair value $0.5000 · Strongly overvalued (−54%)
!Quality 29/100
!Weak Growth (revenue YoY −35.3 %/yr)
!Loss-making · -2.8% net margin (TTM)
!Low debt · negative free cash flow
!Narrow moat 26/100
!Evidence only low, so the estimate is less certain
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What runs behind every stock

26 valuation models 8 families, DCF to NCAV 37 quality factors margins, balance sheet, cashflow, debt 6 AI factors moat, what no ratio measures 2,000+ data points verified, per stock, median

69 individual criteria per stock, every one traceable See the method →

Price vs Fair Value

$1.09 $0.0550 Fair Value $0.5000 Jun 2015 Sep 2026

White line = price, green steps = our fair value per fiscal year, dashed = 300-day average. As of Sep 13, 2026.

How to read this chart

60‑month range $0.0550 – $1.09 · fair‑value band $0.3800 – $0.5900 · the $1.08 price screens above the $0.5000 fair value. Dashed = 300-day average. As of Sep 13, 2026.

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Company profile

Afentra plc, together with its subsidiaries, operates as an upstream oil and gas company primarily in Africa. The company is involved in the appraisal, exploration, development, and production of oil and gas. It holds 34 % interest in an exploration project in the onshore Odewayne block onshore located in Somaliland.

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Afentra plc, together with its subsidiaries, operates as an upstream oil and gas company primarily in Africa. The company is involved in the appraisal, exploration, development, and production of oil and gas. It holds 34 % interest in an exploration project in the onshore Odewayne block onshore located in Somaliland. The company holds a 30 % non-operated interest in the producing Block 3/05 in Offshore Angola; a 21.33 % non-operated interest in the adjacent development Block 3/05A in the Lower Congo Basin; and a 40% non-operating interest in the exploration Block 23 in the Kwanza Basin. Further, it holds 45% non-operated interest in the prospective Block KON19 and KON15 located in the western part of the Onshore Kwanza Basin. Afentra plc was formerly known as Sterling Energy plc and changed its name to Afentra plc in May 2021. The company was incorporated in 1983 and is based in London, the United Kingdom.

Stock analysis

Afentra plc (STGAF) currently trades at $1.08, while our model-based Fair Value estimate is $0.5000, implying the stock looks roughly 116.0% overvalued today.

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Valuation

Bull case: the Multiples group reads highest at a median of $1.16 per share, and 2 of the 6 models we run sit above the $1.08 price.

Bear case: the Asset-Based group reads lowest at $0.2600, and 4 of the 6 models stay below the price. Evidence for this calculation is low.

Scenario range: $0.3800 (bear) to $0.5900 (bull), the price of $1.08 sits above it. Bear and bull are the same models on cautious and optimistic assumptions, a range, not a price target.

Quality & growth

The Quality Score stands at 29/100 (below-average quality), in the Energy sector.

Weak Growth: Revenue growth is weak, negative or inconsistent.

Afentra plc reported revenue of $117M in FY2025 versus $0 in FY2021. Reported net income was −$3.3M in FY2025.

Key figures

Market cap $243M · P/S ratio 1.82 · EPS (TTM) $−0.0100 · Net margin −2.8% · Return on equity −3.3% · Return on assets (EBIT) 4.6% · Operating margin 16.7% · Revenue (TTM) $114M.

Competitive moat

Our AI-assisted moat analysis scores the competitive advantage at 27 out of 100 (medium confidence).

What moves the price

The share trades about 1% below its 52-week high and 125% above its 52-week low, currently above its 200-day average.

For context, the median of 10 Energy peers we cover trades at 10% fair-value upside, at −54%, STGAF screens richer than that median.

Fair Value models

Bear $0.3800 Fair Value $0.5000 Bull $0.5900
Model ⓘEach model values the company its own way (discounted cash flow, earnings, assets, dividends). The fair value above is their evidence-weighted blend, not the output of a single model. Bear ⓘBear = the cautious scenario: the same model computed with conservative anchors (lower growth, margins and valuation multiples). Together with Bull it frames a plausible valuation range, not a price target.BaseBull ⓘBull = the optimistic scenario: the same model computed with favourable anchors (higher growth, margins and valuation multiples). Together with Bear it frames a plausible valuation range, not a price target. Evidence ⓘEvidence = how well-backed THIS model's estimate is for this stock (0–100): how complete and reliable its input data are, and how well the model fits the company. The final Fair Value is an evidence-weighted blend, so better-evidenced models count more. Green ≥70, amber 50–69, grey below 50.
Highest evidence
EPV $0.3900 $0.4400 $0.4800 74
ROIC Compounder $0.3900 $0.5200 $0.6200 69
EV/EBITDA $0.9200 $1.24 $1.56 67
All 6 models by family
Earnings-Based
EPV $0.3900 $0.4400 $0.4800 74
Multiples
EV/EBIT $0.8600 $1.16 $1.47 66
EV/EBITDA $0.9200 $1.24 $1.56 67
EV/Revenue $0.3600 $0.5300 $0.7100 53
Asset-Based
NCAV (Graham) $0.1900 $0.2600 $0.3800 54
Economic Profit
ROIC Compounder $0.3900 $0.5200 $0.6200 69

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Quality Score breakdown

Overall quality 29/100

Of which business quality 33 · Market factors (momentum, volatility) 67

Profitability 18
Margins and returns on capital today
Quality Growth 10
Are margins and returns improving?
Cashflow 25
Earnings quality: real cash, not paper profit
Fin. Strength 50
Balance sheet, leverage, solvency risk
Investment 0
Disciplined investing over empire-building
Low Volatility 50
Calm price path (market factor)
Momentum 65
Price trend over the last 3–12 months (market factor)
52W Momentum 90
Distance to the 52-week high (market factor)
Net Issuance 88
Share count: buybacks or dilution?

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Revenue & earnings trend

Growth Quality ⓘGrowth is valuable only when reinvestment earns attractive returns (Aswath Damodaran): sustainable growth depends on return on capital, reinvestment and efficiency. Basis: total company revenue over the periods shown on the cards (3Y/5Y/all years), not per share, so a merger can show up as a growth jump; per-share earnings growth is in the value-creation card. 0/100
Revenue growth is weak, negative or inconsistent.
Revenue growth 1 year
−35.3%
Revenue growth 31 years ⓘMeasures the company's TOTAL revenue from reported annual statements: compound average growth per year (CAGR) from the fiscal year 3, 5 or N years back to the most recent comparable fiscal year. Not per share: buybacks do not change this number, and a merger can appear as a growth jump. Per-share growth (which does include buybacks) is in the value-creation card.
+14.4%
Profit margin (trend) ⓘOperating margin then vs now, from reported annual statements. A falling margin after a boom year is the classic peak-earnings signal: the growth rate then leans on an inflated base.
−558.1% (2018) → 25.2% (2025)
What shareholders gained per year ⓘWe only publish this rate when it is defensible. Reason: fiscal 2025 is a loss year, no rate is defined from a loss
not computed

STGAF screens 116% overvalued. Compare with CNOOC Limited →

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Peer GroupⓘHow this stock ranks against its industry: the green marker is this stock, the band is the typical 25–75% peer range, and the tick is the median.Oil & Gas E&P · 302 stocks

Beats the industry median on 5/10 measures
A mixed picture versus its industry peers.
Valuation
Quality Score 29 · Bottom 25%
Fair Value upside +24% · Above median
Profitability
Return on assets 8% · Top 25%
Net margin (TTM) −3% · Below median
Operating margin (TTM) 17% · Below median
Growth and dividend
Revenue growth −41% · Bottom 25%
Balance sheet
Debt / equity 0.22× · Below median

Valuation Multiplesvs Oil & Gas E&P median · lower = cheaper

P/B 2.21× · Pricier than median
P/S (TTM) 1.82× · Cheaper than median
EV/EBITDA 4.3× · Cheaper than median

Context: sector, industry, market

Values & ESG

Does this company touch areas you may want to avoid? The classification is inferred from sector and industry.

Oil & gas

Similar stocks

10 more Oil & Gas E&P stocks, each showing price versus our Fair Value estimate.

Stock Price Fair Value vs Fair Value
CNOOC Limited 600938 ¥33.91 ¥37.30 +10%
ConocoPhillips explores for, COP $137.35 $90.15 −34%
Canadian Natural Resources Limited CNQ C$69.32 C$76.25 +10%
EOG Resources, Inc EOG $147.36 $165.02 +12%
Occidental Petroleum Corporation OXY $61.46 $30.06 −51%
Diamondback Energy, Inc FANG $204.97 $242.64 +18%
Devon Energy Corporation DVN $50.23 $55.25 +10%
Woodside Energy Group WDS A$32.86 A$21.75 −34%
EQT Corporation EQT $54.07 $59.48 +10%
Texas Pacific Land Corporation TPL $369.10 $318.08 −14%

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Afentra plc · Fair Value
$0.5000 −116%Fair Value
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Cite: Fair Value Calculator (2026). "Afentra plc Fair Value". https://www.fairvalue-calculator.com/stock/STGAF

Frequently asked questions

Is Afentra plc (STGAF) overvalued or undervalued?
As of Sep 13, 2026, our model estimates a fair value of $0.5000 versus a price of $1.08, about −54% upside (overvalued).
What is the fair value of STGAF?
Our model-based fair value for Afentra plc is $0.5000 (as of Sep 13, 2026), built from audited fundamentals. The current price: $1.08.
What is the quality score of STGAF?
Afentra plc has a Quality Score of 29/100. It measures business quality (profitability, growth, cash flow, balance-sheet strength, investment discipline, share issuance). Market factors such as price momentum and volatility do not enter the number; they are shown separately in the detail view.
What is the price target for Afentra plc (STGAF)?
Our model-based price target is the fair value of $0.5000 (as of Sep 13, 2026) from 6 valuation models. Cautious scenario $0.3800, optimistic scenario $0.5900. It is a calculation from audited fundamentals, not an analyst target.
What is the Afentra plc stock forecast for 2026?
Our models put fair value at $0.5000, about −54% upside versus a price of $1.08 (overvalued). Cautious scenario $0.3800, optimistic scenario $0.5900. The calculation is refreshed regularly with new filings.
What is the revenue of Afentra plc (STGAF)?
Afentra plc reported trailing-twelve-month revenue of about $114M (latest available figure, as of Sep 13, 2026).
What is the intrinsic value of Afentra plc (STGAF)?
Intrinsic value and fair value mean the same thing: what the business is worth on its numbers, independent of the share price. For Afentra plc it is $0.5000 per share (as of Sep 13, 2026), against a price of $1.08. It is the blended result of 6 valuation models (cash flow, earnings, asset, dividend).
Is Afentra plc stock overvalued or undervalued in 2026?
As of Sep 13, 2026, STGAF trades above its calculated fair value: price $1.08, fair value $0.5000, a gap of about −54% (overvalued). The calculation is refreshed with each new quarterly report, so the verdict can change during the year.
Is fair value the same as the market price of STGAF?
No. The price is what the market pays today ($1.08); the fair value is what the company's own numbers justify ($0.5000). For Afentra plc the two are $0.5800 per share apart. That gap is exactly why we show both numbers side by side.
How much is Afentra plc worth?
The market values Afentra plc at about $243M (market capitalisation, as of Sep 13, 2026). Per share that is $1.08; our models calculate a fair value of $0.5000 per share.
What do the bullish and bearish scenarios say about STGAF?
Our models span a range for Afentra plc: cautious scenario $0.3800, base $0.5000, optimistic $0.5900 per share (as of Sep 13, 2026, price $1.08). The range comes from different growth and margin assumptions, not from analyst opinions.
How solid is the balance sheet of Afentra plc (STGAF)?
Balance-sheet figures for Afentra plc (as of Sep 13, 2026): return on equity −3.3%, debt of 0.22 per unit of equity. They feed the Quality Score of 29/100, which measures business quality independently of the share price.
How far is STGAF from its 52-week high?
Afentra plc trades at $1.08, about 1% below its 52-week high of $1.09 and 125% above the low of $0.4800 (as of Sep 13, 2026). Distance from the high says nothing about value: that is what the fair value of $0.5000 is for.
Which stocks are comparable to Afentra plc?
From the same area (Energy) we also value CNOOC Limited, ConocoPhillips explores for,, Canadian Natural Resources Limited, EOG Resources, Inc, among others. Each of them has its own fair-value calculation on this site using the same models, so the comparison is like for like.
Is Afentra plc stock attractive at the current price?
The data as of Sep 13, 2026: price $1.08, calculated fair value $0.5000 (−54%), Quality Score 29/100, from 6 models. Whether that fits your horizon and risk tolerance is your call. We provide the calculation, not investment advice.
How is the fair value of STGAF calculated?
We run Afentra plc through 6 models from four families: discounted cash flow, earnings models, asset and balance-sheet models, and dividend models. Every model gets the same audited fundamentals; the result is the weighted average of $0.5000, with the spread shown as a cautious and an optimistic scenario.
Is it still worth investing in stocks now?
The global stock market currently sits 15.8 % above its aggregate fair value. Afentra plc itself currently trades above fair value. An expensive market is no reason to stay out and no reason to buy everything at once: keep a broad savings plan running, buy single stocks only with money you can do without, and hold part of your money liquid while the market is high. The full picture including sectors is on is it worth investing now.
What should I pay attention to with Afentra plc right now?
The price sits above even our optimistic bull case ($0.5900). The favourable scenario is already priced in. Weak quality (29/100) and above fair value at the same time, the margin of safety is missing on both counts. The large gap to fair value rests on thin data (low evidence): fewer applicable models and a shorter history. Read it with extra caution.

Key figures of Afentra plc

How large is the market capitalisation of Afentra plc (STGAF)?
The market capitalisation of Afentra plc is $243M. The stock-market value of the whole company: share price times number of shares. It is what the market asks for the entire business today.
What is the P/S ratio of Afentra plc (STGAF)?
The price-to-sales ratio of Afentra plc is 1.82 (last twelve months). Price to sales: market value relative to yearly revenue. Useful when profit is thin or distorted.
What are the earnings per share of Afentra plc (STGAF)?
Earnings per share at Afentra plc are $−0.0100. Earnings per share over the last twelve months: total profit spread across every single share.
What is the net margin of Afentra plc (STGAF)?
The net margin of Afentra plc is −2.8% (fiscal year 2025). How much of every unit of revenue ends up as profit. 10% means 10 cents of profit per dollar of sales.
What is the return on equity of Afentra plc (STGAF)?
The return on equity (ROE) of Afentra plc is −3.3% (last twelve months). Profit relative to shareholders' equity, how efficiently the company works with its owners' money.
What is the EBIT return on assets of Afentra plc (STGAF)?
On an EBIT basis the return on assets of Afentra plc is 4.6% (avg 5y). Operating profit (EBIT) relative to everything the company owns, as a multi-year average. It describes the business model rather than one good or bad year.
What is the operating margin of Afentra plc (STGAF)?
The operating margin of Afentra plc is 16.7% (last twelve months). Profit from the core business (before interest and taxes) relative to revenue.
How fast is revenue growing at Afentra plc (STGAF)?
Revenue at Afentra plc is growing −40.7% versus a year earlier. How much revenue grew versus a year earlier (YoY). The 3-year average next to it puts the single year in context.
How fast are earnings growing at Afentra plc (STGAF)?
Earnings per share at Afentra plc are growing −76.6% versus a year earlier. How much earnings per share grew versus a year earlier.
How much free cash flow does Afentra plc (STGAF) generate?
The free cash flow of Afentra plc is −$25.1M (fiscal year 2025). The cash truly left after running and investing in the business, this is what pays dividends and buybacks.
How much net debt does Afentra plc (STGAF) carry?
The net debt of Afentra plc is $21.9M (fiscal year 2025). Debt minus cash on hand. The note shows how many years of free cash flow could in theory pay it off.
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