Star Holdings (STHO) Fair Value & Analysis
Real Estate · US · Market cap $107M
Star Holdings
STHO · US
Fair value as of: Jul 27, 2026
From 4 valuation models · updated 14 days ago
Share price +8.2% over the past month.
Below-average quality, and screening another 31% overvalued on our models.
What matters now
- Weak quality (42/100) and above fair value at the same time, the margin of safety is missing on both counts.
- The model range is unusually wide ($1.34 to $12.90). The outcome hinges heavily on assumptions, so read the point estimate with caution.
- The large gap to fair value rests on thin data (low evidence): fewer applicable models and a shorter history. Read it with extra caution.
- As a real-estate business, asset- and dividend-based methods carry more weight here than a standard DCF.
Price vs Fair Value (3 years)
White line = price, green steps = our fair value per fiscal year, dashed = 300-day average. As of Jul 27, 2026.
How to read this chart
40‑month range $6.08 – $20.79 · fair‑value band $1.34 – $12.90 · the $9.64 price screens above the $6.68 fair value. Green steps = our fair value per fiscal year (point-in-time, no hindsight). Dashed = 300-day average. As of Jul 27, 2026.
Analysis
Star Holdings (STHO) currently trades at $9.64, while our model-based Fair Value estimate is $6.68, implying the stock looks roughly 30.7% overvalued today. The Quality Score stands at 42/100 (below-average quality), in the Real Estate sector. Bear case: priced above our estimate, the market already discounts strong expectations. Bull case: above-average quality can justify a premium, the entry price still matters most (evidence: low).
Over the trailing twelve months, Star Holdings generated revenue of $124M at a net margin of -53.8%. Revenue grew 43.2% year over year. It earns a return on equity of -26.8%. Net debt stands at $220M. Fundamentals as of Jul 27, 2026
Our scenario range runs from $1.34 (bear case) to $12.90 (bull case); at $9.64, the current price sits within that range. Bear and bull are the same models run on conservative and optimistic assumptions (margins, growth, valuation multiples), so a plausible valuation range, not a price target. The share trades near its 52-week high and 38% above its 52-week low, currently above its 200-day average. For context, the median of 10 Real Estate peers we cover trades at -2% fair-value upside, at -31%, STHO screens richer than that median.
Fair Value models
Each model estimates fair value its own way; the Fair Value above is the evidence-weighted blend. Evidence (0–100) measures how completely this model’s inputs are available: well-fed models carry more weight in the blend. The spread across models is intentional, each one stresses a different value driver; dividend models, for instance, come out structurally low when payout is small.
All 4 models by family
Widest divergence: Multiples ($26.84) versus Asset-Based ($13.96). Highest evidence: EV/EBITDA (54).
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Key figures & financial health
More key figures
Figures from reported company fundamentals · as of Jul 27, 2026. TTM = trailing twelve months.
Quality Score breakdown
Of which business quality 40 · Market factors (momentum, volatility) 68
Non-valuation factor families (profitability, growth, cashflow, financial strength, momentum …), each academically grounded. Valuation itself sits in the Fair Value and is deliberately excluded here to avoid double-counting.
About the company
Star Holdings engages in the non-ground lease real estate assets business in the United States. The company portfolio comprises Asbury Park Waterfront and Magnolia Green residential development projects. It also engages in the asset management activities; sale of existing loans; and operation of land and development properties.
Full company description
Star Holdings engages in the non-ground lease real estate assets business in the United States. The company portfolio comprises Asbury Park Waterfront and Magnolia Green residential development projects. It also engages in the asset management activities; sale of existing loans; and operation of land and development properties. Star Holdings was incorporated in 2022 and is based in New York, New York.
Company description, as reported by the company or data provider.
Revenue & earnings trend
FY2021 – FY2025 · reported fiscal years
Star Holdings reported revenue of $110M in FY2025 versus $222M in FY2021, a compound −16.1%/yr. Reported net income was −$64.2M in FY2025.
STHO screens 31% overvalued. Compare with Vingroup Joint Stock Company →
Peer Group
Real Estate Services · 520 stocks
How this stock ranks against its industry: the green marker is this stock, the band is the typical 25–75% peer range, and the tick is the median.
Valuation Multiples vs Real Estate Services median · lower = cheaper
Snowflake
Five quick dimensions, each 0 to 100: VALUE (fair-value potential), FUTURE (revenue growth), PAST (return on equity), HEALTH (low debt), DIVIDEND (yield). Green = this stock, grey = typical sector peer.
VALUE 0: the price sits above our fair-value range.
Values & ESG
Does this company touch areas you may want to avoid? The classification is inferred from sector and industry.
ESG scores are not available for this stock yet. Values and ESG data are contextual and can differ between providers.
Similar stocks
10 more Real Estate Services stocks, each showing price versus our Fair Value estimate (as of Jul 27, 2026).
| Stock | Price | Fair Value | vs Fair Value |
|---|---|---|---|
| Vingroup Joint Stock Company VIC | 223,000 VND | 25,731 VND | -88% |
| KE Holdings 2423 | HK$44.76 | HK$18.03 | -60% |
| Swire Properties Limited 1972 | HK$23.90 | HK$18.75 | -22% |
| Plaza S.A MALLPLAZA | 3,725 CLP | 5,571 CLP | +50% |
| SAGAA SAGAA | kr 170.00 | kr 75.55 | -56% |
| Cencosud Shopping S.A CENCOMALLS | 2,324 CLP | 2,976 CLP | +28% |
| PT Sarana Menara Nusantara Tbk. owns and TOWR | 372.00 IDR | 1,208 IDR | +225% |
| PT Metropolitan Kentjana Tbk MKPI | 20,975 IDR | 19,160 IDR | -9% |
| PT Bangun Kosambi Sukses Tbk, CBDK | 3,530 IDR | 3,464 IDR | -2% |
| IRSA Inversiones y Representaciones Sociedad Anónima, IRSA | 2,495 ARS | 3,998 ARS | +60% |
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Frequently asked questions
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How we calculate Fair Value
Each company is valued through a stack of independent intrinsic-value models (DCF variants, residual-income, multiples and more), blended into one family-balanced consensus and weighted by how much trustworthy data backs it. A separate quality layer scores the fundamentals. Every input is real reported data, nothing guessed.
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