Constellation Brands Inc. (STZB34) fair value: what the stock is really worth
As of Oct 2, 2026: fair value of Constellation Brands Inc. BRL 43.21, price BRL 49.05, upside -11.9%, quality 67 out of 100. Calculated from audited financials with 26 valuation models and 37 quality factors, updated daily.
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Price vs Fair Value
White line = price, green steps = our fair value per fiscal year, dashed = 300-day average. As of Sep 29, 2026.
How to read this chart
60‑month range R$48.65 – R$353.55 · fair‑value band R$25.36 – R$61.00 · the R$49.05 price screens above the R$43.21 fair value. Dashed = 300-day average. As of Sep 29, 2026.
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Constellation Brands, Inc., together with its subsidiaries, produces, imports, markets, and sells beer, wine, and spirits in the United States, Canada, Mexico, New Zealand, and Italy.
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Constellation Brands, Inc., together with its subsidiaries, produces, imports, markets, and sells beer, wine, and spirits in the United States, Canada, Mexico, New Zealand, and Italy. It offers beer under the Corona Extra, Corona Familiar, Corona Sunbrew, Corona Light, Corona Non-Alcoholic, Corona Premier, Modelo Especial, Modelo Chelada, Modelo Negra, Modelo Spiked Aguas Frescas, Modelo Oro, Modelo Noche Especial, Victoria, Vicky Chamoy, and Pacifico brand names. The company also offers wine under the Sea Smoke, Schrader Cellars, Kim Crawford, Mount Veeder, Ruffino, My Favorite Neighbor, Robert Mondavi Winery, and The Prisoner Wine Company brand names; and spirits under the Casa Noble, High West, Mi CAMPO, and Nelson's Green Brier brand names. It provides its products to wholesale distributors, retailers, and state alcohol beverage control agencies. Constellation Brands, Inc. was founded in 1945 and is headquartered in Rochester, New York.
Stock analysis
Constellation Brands Inc. (STZB34) currently trades at R$49.05, while our model-based Fair Value estimate is R$43.21, 11.9% below the price, so the stock looks overvalued today.
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Valuation
Bull case: the Multiples group reads highest at a median of R$74.56 per share, and 11 of the 24 models we run sit above the R$49.05 price.
Bear case: the Asset-Based group reads lowest at R$14.08, and 13 of the 24 models stay below the price. Evidence for this calculation is medium.
Scenario range: R$25.36 (bear) to R$61.00 (bull), the price of R$49.05 sits inside it. Bear and bull are the same models on cautious and optimistic assumptions, a range, not a price target.
Quality & growth
The Quality Score stands at 67/100 (solid quality), in the Consumer Defensive sector.
Healthy Growth: Revenue growth appears healthy and is supported by profitability and cash-flow quality.
Constellation Brands Inc. reported revenue of $9.1B in FY2026 versus $8.8B in FY2022, a compound +0.9%/yr. Reported net income was $1.7B in FY2026.
Key figures
Market cap R$114B (≈ $21.8B) · P/E ratio 12.3 · P/S ratio 2.27 · EPS (TTM) R$13.60 · Dividend yield 2.5% · Net margin 18.5% · Return on equity 23.7% · Return on assets (EBIT) 9.9%.
Competitive moat
Our AI-assisted moat analysis scores the competitive advantage at 48 out of 100 (low confidence).
What moves the price
The share trades about 76% below its 52-week high and 1% above its 52-week low, currently below its 200-day average.
For context, the median of 10 Consumer Defensive peers we cover trades at −1% fair-value upside, at −12%, STZB34 screens richer than that median.
Fair Value models
Bear R$25.36Fair Value R$43.21Bull R$61.00
Model ⓘEach model values the company its own way (discounted cash flow, earnings, assets, dividends). The fair value above is their evidence-weighted blend, not the output of a single model. Based on fiscal year 2026 figures (about 7 months old). Earnings retained since then (R$5.63 per share) are deliberately not added.Bear ⓘBear = the cautious scenario: the same model computed with conservative anchors (lower growth, margins and valuation multiples). Together with Bull it frames a plausible valuation range, not a price target.BaseBull ⓘBull = the optimistic scenario: the same model computed with favourable anchors (higher growth, margins and valuation multiples). Together with Bear it frames a plausible valuation range, not a price target. If a model's bull case is above four times its base value, the table shows that limit with a > sign (like the overall Bull above): beyond it no assumption holds.Evidence ⓘEvidence = how well-backed THIS model's estimate is for this stock (0–100): how complete and reliable its input data are, and how well the model fits the company. The final Fair Value is an evidence-weighted blend, so better-evidenced models count more. Green ≥70, amber 50–69, grey below 50.
Growth Quality ⓘGrowth is valuable only when reinvestment earns attractive returns (Aswath Damodaran): sustainable growth depends on return on capital, reinvestment and efficiency. Basis: total company revenue over the periods shown on the cards (3Y/5Y/all years), not per share, so a merger can show up as a growth jump; per-share earnings growth is in the value-creation card.77/100
Revenue growth appears healthy and is supported by profitability and cash-flow quality.
Revenue growth 3 years ⓘMeasures the company's TOTAL revenue from reported annual statements: compound average growth per year (CAGR) from the fiscal year 3, 5 or N years back to the most recent comparable fiscal year. Not per share: buybacks do not change this number, and a merger can appear as a growth jump. Per-share growth (which does include buybacks) is in the value-creation card.
+5.0%
Revenue growth 5 years ⓘMeasures the company's TOTAL revenue from reported annual statements: compound average growth per year (CAGR) from the fiscal year 3, 5 or N years back to the most recent comparable fiscal year. Not per share: buybacks do not change this number, and a merger can appear as a growth jump. Per-share growth (which does include buybacks) is in the value-creation card.
+4.1%
Start year 2020 (pandemic)
Revenue growth 6 years ⓘMeasures the company's TOTAL revenue from reported annual statements: compound average growth per year (CAGR) from the fiscal year 3, 5 or N years back to the most recent comparable fiscal year. Not per share: buybacks do not change this number, and a merger can appear as a growth jump. Per-share growth (which does include buybacks) is in the value-creation card.
+3.9%
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What shareholders gained per year (last 5 years) ⓘWhat the business itself delivers per year: earnings growth per share plus the dividend yield. This is what you get IF the market keeps valuing the stock the same way: it contains no assumption about the market changing its mind. Computed per share, so buybacks count and a merger does not pass as growth. For a company that pays no dividend it is pure earnings growth per share. Period: earnings growth per share as CAGR over the last 5 reported fiscal years (annual statements), plus the current dividend yield. The start value is the median of the three years around the start, so a single crisis year (a pandemic or a write-down) does not distort the rate.
+1.3%
Earnings growth per share plus dividend.
Earnings per share, growth per year−1.2%
Dividend (yield on the price)2.5%
Profit margin 2021 to 2026 ⓘOperating margin then vs now, from reported annual statements. A falling margin after a boom year is the classic peak-earnings signal: the growth rate then leans on an inflated base.33% → 30%
News mood ⓘNews mood, the average tone of recent news (100 articles), rated against how stocks are usually covered. 🚀 Hype = unusually upbeat · 🙂 Positive = above average · 😐 Neutral = typical · 🙁 Negative = below average · 😨 Very negative = unusually downbeat. It reflects the tone of coverage, not our valuation.Neutral
Recent news coverage is roughly neutral, about typical for how stocks are covered.
Compare Constellation Brands Inc. with another stock
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Peer GroupⓘHow this stock ranks against its industry: the green marker is this stock, the band is the typical 25–75% peer range, and the tick is the median.Beverages - Brewers · 52 stocks
Beats the industry median on 7/11 measures
Overall it ranks above its industry peers.
Valuation
Quality Score67 · Above median
Fair Value upside+62.6% · Top 25%
Profitability
Return on equity (TTM)23.7% · Top 25%
Return on assets8.6% · Top 25%
Net margin (TTM)20.1% · Top 25%
Operating margin (TTM)35.9% · Top 25%
Growth and dividend
Revenue growth−3.3% · Below median
Dividend yield (TTM)2.5% · Below median
Balance sheet
Debt / equity1.20× · Highest 25%
Valuation Multiplesvs Beverages - Brewers median · lower = cheaper
For bloggers, editors and developers: paste this into your site or blog (a “Custom HTML” block in WordPress), it shows the current fair value and links back here. Free, plain HTML, and welcome. Full data streams (CSV/JSON) at /developers.
Cite: Fair Value Calculator (2026). "Constellation Brands Inc. Fair Value". https://www.fairvalue-calculator.com/stock/STZB34
Frequently asked questions
Is Constellation Brands Inc. (STZB34) overvalued or undervalued?
As of Sep 29, 2026, our model estimates a fair value of R$43.21 versus a price of R$49.05, about −12% upside (overvalued).
What is the fair value of STZB34?
Our model-based fair value for Constellation Brands Inc. is R$43.21 (as of Sep 29, 2026), built from audited fundamentals. The current price: R$49.05.
What is the quality score of STZB34?
Constellation Brands Inc. has a Quality Score of 67/100. It measures business quality (profitability, growth, cash flow, balance-sheet strength, investment discipline, share issuance). Market factors such as price momentum and volatility do not enter the number; they are shown separately in the detail view.
What is the price target for Constellation Brands Inc. (STZB34)?
Our model-based price target is the fair value of R$43.21 (as of Sep 29, 2026) from 24 valuation models. Cautious scenario R$25.36, optimistic scenario R$61.00. It is a calculation from audited fundamentals, not an analyst target.
What is the Constellation Brands Inc. stock forecast for 2026?
Our models put fair value at R$43.21, about −12% upside versus a price of R$49.05 (overvalued). Cautious scenario R$25.36, optimistic scenario R$61.00. The calculation is refreshed regularly with new filings.
What is the revenue of Constellation Brands Inc. (STZB34)?
Constellation Brands Inc. reported trailing-twelve-month revenue of about $9.1B (latest available figure, as of Sep 29, 2026).
Does Constellation Brands Inc. pay a dividend?
Constellation Brands Inc. currently shows a dividend yield of about 2.45% relative to its recent price (as of Sep 29, 2026).
What is the intrinsic value of Constellation Brands Inc. (STZB34)?
Intrinsic value and fair value mean the same thing: what the business is worth on its numbers, independent of the share price. For Constellation Brands Inc. it is R$43.21 per share (as of Sep 29, 2026), against a price of R$49.05. It is the blended result of 24 valuation models (cash flow, earnings, asset, dividend).
Is Constellation Brands Inc. stock overvalued or undervalued in 2026?
As of Sep 29, 2026, STZB34 trades above its calculated fair value: price R$49.05, fair value R$43.21, a gap of about −12% (overvalued). The calculation is refreshed with each new quarterly report, so the verdict can change during the year.
Is fair value the same as the market price of STZB34?
No. The price is what the market pays today (R$49.05); the fair value is what the company's own numbers justify (R$43.21). For Constellation Brands Inc. the two are R$5.84 per share apart. That gap is exactly why we show both numbers side by side.
How much is Constellation Brands Inc. worth?
The market values Constellation Brands Inc. at about R$114B (market capitalisation, as of Sep 29, 2026). Per share that is R$49.05; our models calculate a fair value of R$43.21 per share.
What do the bullish and bearish scenarios say about STZB34?
Our models span a range for Constellation Brands Inc.: cautious scenario R$25.36, base R$43.21, optimistic R$61.00 per share (as of Sep 29, 2026, price R$49.05). The range comes from different growth and margin assumptions, not from analyst opinions.
What is the P/E ratio of STZB34?
Constellation Brands Inc. trades at a price-to-earnings ratio of 12.3 (as of Sep 29, 2026). A P/E on its own says little: it compares the price with ONE year of profit, while our fair value of R$43.21 is built from several models across several years. Other multiples: PEG 2.4.
What is the PEG ratio of STZB34?
The PEG ratio of Constellation Brands Inc. is 2.44 (P/E divided by earnings growth, as of Sep 29, 2026). That is above 1, so the growth is already paid for in the price.
How solid is the balance sheet of Constellation Brands Inc. (STZB34)?
Balance-sheet figures for Constellation Brands Inc. (as of Sep 29, 2026): return on equity 23.7%, debt of 1.20 per unit of equity. They feed the Quality Score of 67/100, which measures business quality independently of the share price.
How far is STZB34 from its 52-week high?
Constellation Brands Inc. trades at R$49.05, about 76% below its 52-week high of R$207.20 and 1% above the low of R$48.65 (as of Oct 2, 2026). Distance from the high says nothing about value: that is what the fair value of R$43.21 is for.
Which stocks are comparable to Constellation Brands Inc.?
From the same area (Consumer Defensive) we also value Anheuser-Busch InBev SA, Heineken N.V, Fomento Económico Mexicano, S.A., Heineken Holding, among others. Each of them has its own fair-value calculation on this site using the same models, so the comparison is like for like.
Is Constellation Brands Inc. stock attractive at the current price?
The data as of Sep 29, 2026: price R$49.05, calculated fair value R$43.21 (−12%), Quality Score 67/100, from 24 models. Whether that fits your horizon and risk tolerance is your call. We provide the calculation, not investment advice.
How is the fair value of STZB34 calculated?
We run Constellation Brands Inc. through 24 models from four families: discounted cash flow, earnings models, asset and balance-sheet models, and dividend models. Every model gets the same audited fundamentals; the result is the weighted average of R$43.21, with the spread shown as a cautious and an optimistic scenario.
Is it still worth investing in stocks now?
The global stock market currently sits 14.5 % above its aggregate fair value. Constellation Brands Inc. itself currently trades above fair value. An expensive market is no reason to stay out and no reason to buy everything at once: keep a broad savings plan running, buy single stocks only with money you can do without, and hold part of your money liquid while the market is high. The full picture including sectors is on is it worth investing now.
What is the share price of Constellation Brands Inc. (STZB34)?
The closing price on Oct 2, 2026 was R$49.05. Our model-based fair value is R$43.21, about −12% upside (overvalued). We carry closing prices from our data provider, not a live tick.
What should I pay attention to with Constellation Brands Inc. right now?
A fairly wide model range (R$25.36 to R$61.00) leaves room in how you read the outcome. The price sits in the upper half of our model range, so the margin of safety is thin. Read the verdict with care: some models are missing inputs, so the estimate scatters more than usual.
Key figures of Constellation Brands Inc.
How large is the market capitalisation of Constellation Brands Inc. (STZB34)?
The market capitalisation of Constellation Brands Inc. is R$114B (≈ $21.8B). The stock-market value of the whole company: share price times number of shares. It is what the market asks for the entire business today.
What is the P/S ratio of Constellation Brands Inc. (STZB34)?
The price-to-sales ratio of Constellation Brands Inc. is 2.27 (P/E × margin). Price to sales: market value relative to yearly revenue. Useful when profit is thin or distorted.
What are the earnings per share of Constellation Brands Inc. (STZB34)?
Earnings per share at Constellation Brands Inc. are R$13.60 (price ÷ EPS = P/E 12.3). Earnings per share over the last twelve months: total profit spread across every single share.
What is the dividend yield of Constellation Brands Inc. (STZB34)?
The dividend yield of Constellation Brands Inc. is 2.5% (payout 8.8%). Yearly dividend relative to the share price. 3% pays 3 per 100 invested. Below: how much of profit is used for it.
What is the net margin of Constellation Brands Inc. (STZB34)?
The net margin of Constellation Brands Inc. is 18.5% (fiscal year 2026). How much of every unit of revenue ends up as profit. 10% means 10 cents of profit per dollar of sales.
What is the return on equity of Constellation Brands Inc. (STZB34)?
The return on equity (ROE) of Constellation Brands Inc. is 23.7% (last twelve months). Profit relative to shareholders' equity, how efficiently the company works with its owners' money.
What is the EBIT return on assets of Constellation Brands Inc. (STZB34)?
On an EBIT basis the return on assets of Constellation Brands Inc. is 9.9% (avg 5y). Operating profit (EBIT) relative to everything the company owns, as a multi-year average. It describes the business model rather than one good or bad year.
What is the operating margin of Constellation Brands Inc. (STZB34)?
The operating margin of Constellation Brands Inc. is 35.9% (last twelve months). Profit from the core business (before interest and taxes) relative to revenue.
How fast is revenue growing at Constellation Brands Inc. (STZB34)?
Revenue at Constellation Brands Inc. is growing −3.3% versus a year earlier (3y avg −1.1%). How much revenue grew versus a year earlier (YoY). The 3-year average next to it puts the single year in context.
How fast are earnings growing at Constellation Brands Inc. (STZB34)?
Earnings per share at Constellation Brands Inc. are growing +30.7% versus a year earlier. How much earnings per share grew versus a year earlier.
How much free cash flow does Constellation Brands Inc. (STZB34) generate?
The free cash flow of Constellation Brands Inc. is $1.8B (fiscal year 2026). The cash truly left after running and investing in the business, this is what pays dividends and buybacks.
How much net debt does Constellation Brands Inc. (STZB34) carry?
The net debt of Constellation Brands Inc. is $10.5B (fiscal year 2026, ≈ 5.8 yrs of FCF). Debt minus cash on hand. The note shows how many years of free cash flow could in theory pay it off.
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