Suruga Bank Ltd (SUGBY) fair value: what the stock is really worth
As of Oct 15, 2026: fair value (intrinsic value) of Suruga Bank Ltd stock $122, price $186, upside -34.7%, quality 66 out of 100. Rating: overvalued. Calculated from audited financials with 26 valuation models and 37 quality factors, updated daily.
69 individual criteria per stock, every one traceableSee the method →
Price vs Fair Value
White line = price, green steps = our fair value per fiscal year, dashed = 300-day average. As of Oct 3, 2026.
How to read this chart
60‑month range $22.62 – $197.17 · fair‑value band $108.96 – $149.18 · the $186.00 price screens above the $121.52 fair value. Green steps = our fair value per fiscal year (point-in-time, no hindsight). 1 fiscal year is left out: there the valuation rested on only a fraction of the usual models. Dashed = 300-day average. As of Oct 3, 2026.
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Suruga Bank Ltd. provides various banking and financial products and services to individuals and corporate customers in Japan.
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The company offers deposit products, such as time, non-interest bearing, savings, foreign currency, and other deposits, as well as current and general accounts; property, card, housing, second house, startup, and business up term loans, as well as loans by purpose; credit and debit cards; overdrafts; and other financing products.
It also provides investment trust, public bond, pension contribution, insurance, inheritance/trust, lottery, foreign currency, pay-easy, web direct, safe deposit box, external linkage, remittance service, fund management, e-combination, payment, nursing care/medical care/dispensing compensation receivable factoring, mortgage, and internet and telephone banking services.
In addition, the company offers money lending, guarantee, printing, leasing, and agency services, as well as advisory and consulting services. Suruga Bank Ltd. company was incorporated in 1895 and is headquartered in Numazu, Japan.
Stock analysis
Suruga Bank Ltd (SUGBY) currently trades at $186.00, while our model-based Fair Value estimate is $121.52, 34.7% below the price, so the stock looks overvalued today.
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Valuation
Bull case: the Multiples group reads highest at a median of $167.59 per share, and 0 of the 6 models we run sit above the $186.00 price.
Bear case: the Dividend Discount group reads lowest at $30.23, and 6 of the 6 models stay below the price. Data coverage for this calculation is medium.
Scenario range: $108.96 (bear) to $149.18 (bull), the price of $186.00 sits above it. Bear and bull are the same models on cautious and optimistic assumptions, a range, not a price target.
Quality & growth
The Quality Score stands at 66/100 (solid quality), in the Financial Services sector.
Weak Growth: Revenue growth is weak: less than 2 % a year.
Suruga Bank Ltd ADR reported revenue of ¥90.5B in FY2026 versus ¥73.9B in FY2022, a compound +5.2%/yr. Reported net income was ¥36.8B in FY2026, compounding +46.7%/yr from FY2022.
Key figures
Market cap $1.3B Small · P/E ratio 10.8 · P/S ratio 4.41 · EPS (TTM) $7.39 · Dividend yield 2.5% · Net margin 40.7% · Return on equity 13.7% · Return on assets (EBIT) 0.5%.
Competitive moat
Our AI-assisted moat analysis scores the competitive advantage at 69 out of 100 (low confidence).
What moves the price
The share trades about 6% below its 52-week high and 132% above its 52-week low, currently above its 200-day average.
For context, the median of 10 Financial Services peers we cover trades at −31% fair-value upside, at −35%, SUGBY screens richer than that median.
Fair Value models
Bear$108.96Fair Value $121.52Bull$149.18
Price $186.00 · Upside -34.7%
Model ⓘEach model values the company its own way (discounted cash flow, earnings, assets, dividends). The fair value above starts from their evidence-weighted blend, not from a single model. In cyclical trough or peak years, after dilution or a stock split it is adjusted afterwards, so it can sit above or below the models. Based on fiscal year 2026 figures (about 7 months old). Earnings retained since then ($4.15 per share) are deliberately not added.Bear ⓘBear = the cautious scenario: the same model computed with conservative anchors (lower growth, margins and valuation multiples). Together with Bull it frames a plausible valuation range, not a price target.BaseBull ⓘBull = the optimistic scenario: the same model computed with favourable anchors (higher growth, margins and valuation multiples). Together with Bear it frames a plausible valuation range, not a price target. If a model's bull case is above four times its base value, the table shows that limit with a > sign (like the overall Bull above): beyond it no assumption holds.Coverage ⓘCoverage = how well-backed THIS model's estimate is for this stock (0–100): how complete and reliable its input data are, and how well the model fits the company. The final Fair Value is an evidence-weighted blend, so better-evidenced models count more. Green ≥70, amber 50–69, grey below 50.
Growth Quality ⓘGrowth is valuable only when reinvestment earns attractive returns (Aswath Damodaran): sustainable growth depends on return on capital, reinvestment and efficiency. Basis: total company revenue over the periods shown on the cards (3Y/5Y/all years), not per share, so a merger can show up as a growth jump; per-share earnings growth is in the value-creation card.40/100
Revenue growth is weak: less than 2 % a year.
Revenue growth 1 year
+30.7%
Revenue growth 3 years ⓘMeasures the company's TOTAL revenue from reported annual statements: compound average growth per year (CAGR) from the fiscal year 3, 5 or N years back to the most recent comparable fiscal year. Not per share: buybacks do not change this number, and a merger can appear as a growth jump. Per-share growth (which does include buybacks) is in the value-creation card.
+17.5%
Revenue growth 5 years ⓘMeasures the company's TOTAL revenue from reported annual statements: compound average growth per year (CAGR) from the fiscal year 3, 5 or N years back to the most recent comparable fiscal year. Not per share: buybacks do not change this number, and a merger can appear as a growth jump. Per-share growth (which does include buybacks) is in the value-creation card.
+1.6%
Start year 2021 (pandemic). Over 10 years: −2.7% a year
Revenue growth 18 years ⓘMeasures the company's TOTAL revenue from reported annual statements: compound average growth per year (CAGR) from the fiscal year 3, 5 or N years back to the most recent comparable fiscal year. Not per share: buybacks do not change this number, and a merger can appear as a growth jump. Per-share growth (which does include buybacks) is in the value-creation card.
+0.1%
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What shareholders gained per year (last 5 years), in JPY (mathematically smoothed) ⓘWhat the business itself delivers per year: earnings growth per share plus the dividend yield. This is what you get IF the market keeps valuing the stock the same way: it contains no assumption about the market changing its mind. Computed per share, so buybacks count and a merger does not pass as growth. For a company that pays no dividend it is pure earnings growth per share. Period: earnings growth per share as CAGR over the last 5 reported fiscal years (annual statements), plus the current dividend yield. The start value is the median of the three years around the start, so a single crisis year (a pandemic or a write-down) does not distort the rate. Smoothed = median of all growth paths between the years of the window (trend line on the logarithm of earnings per share): a single extreme year cannot distort the rate. The reported figure stays in the tooltip. Measured in JPY: this currency has depreciated against the euro and dollar over the long run, so part of the nominal rate is currency erosion that never reaches a EUR/USD investor.
+48.1%
Earnings growth per share plus dividend.
Earnings per share, growth per year+45.6%
Dividend (yield on the price)2.5%
Pace: 5 vs 10 years ⓘTwo data points, not a trend model: earnings growth per share over the last 5 fiscal years against the last 10. Labelled "steady" when both rates are within 3 percentage points of each other, otherwise picking up or flattening. Shown only when ten years of history exist.18.5% vs 3.3%, picking up
Profit margin 2021 to 2026 ⓘOperating margin then vs now, from reported annual statements. A falling margin after a boom year is the classic peak-earnings signal: the growth rate then leans on an inflated base.21% → 41%
2026 sits 187% above its own trend. The rate follows the median trend of the last 5 years, not that single year.
Pace: the 5-year rate starts in 2021 (pandemic)
⚠ Revenue per share shrinking 2.1%/yr over ~10Y (margins eroding too) ⓘStructural-decline marker: revenue PER SHARE has fallen over the last decade (robust median trend, not a single year). Backtested across 2005 to 2017, such businesses trailed the market by about 2.5 percentage points per year. Display only: it does not change the fair value or the quality score.
Growth Forecast
Little optimism in the price
The price assumes less growth than the company has delivered so far and less than analysts expect.
What the price assumes ⓘThis turns our valuation around: instead of asking what the share is worth, it asks what growth the current price requires. It uses the cash the company keeps after all spending (free cash flow), the same discount rate as our models, five years of growth, then slowing evenly to 2 % a year by year ten. Compared with the analysts' sales forecasts extended to the same five years (at least three analysts, for context only, it does not enter the Fair Value): within 3 percentage points counts as "in line" (amber), below that little optimism (green), above that a lot of optimism (red).
−2.7%
The company could shrink this much every year for the next five years and today's price would still be justified.
What forecasts expect ⓘAnalysts publish sales forecasts for the next two fiscal years. For the years after that, growth slows evenly to 2 % a year by year ten (2 % is the long-run rate our models use). Projected years are marked as such.
+8.7%
Yearly sales growth analysts expect, extended to five years.
After inflation (figures in JPY, Japan: IMF forecast 2.1% a year to 2030, 1.3% from 2016 to 2025) that is about −4.7% a year for the price and +6.5% for the forecasts.
Price, fair value, quality and upside side by side.
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Peer GroupⓘHow this stock ranks against its industry: the green marker is this stock, the band is the typical 25–75% peer range, and the tick is the median.Banks - Regional · 1049 stocks
Beats the industry median on 10/13 measures
Overall it ranks above its industry peers.
Valuation
Quality Score66 · Top 25%
Fair Value upside−34.7% · Bottom 25%
Profitability
Return on equity (12 months)13.7% · Top 25%
Return on assets1.0% · Above median
Net margin (12 months)44.9% · Top 25%
Operating margin (12 months)59.8% · Top 25%
Growth and dividend
Revenue growth (quarter YoY)39.9% · Top 25%
Dividend yield (12 months)2.5% · Below median
Balance sheet
Debt / equity0.00× · Lowest 25%
Valuation Multiplesvs Banks - Regional median · lower = cheaper
P/E (12 months)10.8× · Cheaper than median
P/B0.65× · Cheapest 25%
P/S (12 months)2.19× · Cheapest 25%
Price / free cash flow32.9× · Priciest 25%
Strength profile in five axes (Snowflake)
This stockSector peers
VALUE (fair-value potential)0· sector 12
FUTURE (revenue growth)100· sector 49
PAST (return on equity)55· sector 41
HEALTH (low debt)100· sector 85
DIVIDEND (yield)50· sector 52
VALUE 0: the price sits above our fair-value range.
For bloggers, editors and developers: paste this into your site or blog (a “Custom HTML” block in WordPress), it shows the current fair value and links back here. Free, plain HTML, and welcome. Full data streams (CSV/JSON) at /developers.
Cite: Fair Value Calculator (2026). "Suruga Bank Ltd ADR Fair Value". https://www.fairvalue-calculator.com/stock/SUGBY
Frequently asked questions
Is Suruga Bank Ltd (SUGBY) overvalued or undervalued?
As of Oct 3, 2026, our model estimates a fair value of $121.52 versus the last price from Oct 15, 2026 of $186.00, about −35% upside (overvalued).
What is the fair value of SUGBY?
Our model-based fair value for Suruga Bank Ltd ADR is $121.52 (as of Oct 3, 2026), built from audited fundamentals. Last price (from Oct 15, 2026): $186.00.
What is the quality score of SUGBY?
Suruga Bank Ltd ADR has a Quality Score of 66/100. It measures business quality (profitability, growth, cash flow, balance-sheet strength, investment discipline, share issuance). Market factors such as price momentum and volatility do not enter the number; they are shown separately in the detail view.
What is the price target for Suruga Bank Ltd (SUGBY)?
Our model-based price target is the fair value of $121.52 (as of Oct 3, 2026) from 6 valuation models. Cautious scenario $108.96, optimistic scenario $149.18. It is a calculation from audited fundamentals, not an analyst target.
What is the Suruga Bank Ltd ADR stock forecast for 2026?
Our models put fair value at $121.52, about −35% upside versus the last price from Oct 15, 2026 of $186.00 (overvalued). Cautious scenario $108.96, optimistic scenario $149.18. The calculation is refreshed regularly with new filings.
What is the revenue of Suruga Bank Ltd (SUGBY)?
Suruga Bank Ltd ADR reported trailing-twelve-month revenue of about ¥96.6B (latest available figure, as of Oct 3, 2026).
Does Suruga Bank Ltd ADR pay a dividend?
Suruga Bank Ltd ADR currently shows a dividend yield of 2.50% relative to its recent price (as of Oct 3, 2026).
What growth is priced into Suruga Bank Ltd (SUGBY)?
For today's price to be fair in a discounted-cash-flow model, Suruga Bank Ltd ADR would have to grow free cash flow by -2.7 % per year for five years (discount rate 10.0 %, then slowing evenly to 2 % perpetual growth by year ten). Over the last 5 years revenue grew +1.6 % per year. As of Oct 3, 2026.
What discount rate (WACC) does the fair value of SUGBY use?
Our models discount Suruga Bank Ltd ADR at 10.0 %: a base by market capitalisation (small), damped by beta 0.56, country premium for USA. The same rate applies in all 26 models.
What is a reverse DCF?
A reverse DCF turns the usual calculation around. Instead of deriving a value from assumptions, it takes today's price as given and asks: what free-cash-flow growth would a company have to deliver for exactly this price to be fair? The result is not a forecast but the expectation already priced in. For Suruga Bank Ltd ADR that is -2.7 % per year a year over ten years, using the same discount rate (10.0 %) and the same formula as our fair value.
How much growth has Suruga Bank Ltd (SUGBY) delivered so far?
Over the past 5 years revenue at Suruga Bank Ltd ADR grew +1.6 % a year. The price currently implies -2.7 % per year free-cash-flow growth a year. Comparing the two shows how much confidence is in the price: if it demands more than has been delivered, the business has to accelerate for the maths to work.
How fast is the sector of Suruga Bank Ltd (SUGBY) growing?
The median revenue growth in the sector is +9.2 % a year. That is the yardstick for the growth priced into Suruga Bank Ltd ADR (-2.7 % per year a year): it shows whether the expectation is within the usual range or beyond it.
What is the free cash flow yield of Suruga Bank Ltd (SUGBY)?
The free-cash-flow yield on the price is 1.29 %: that much free cash flow Suruga Bank Ltd ADR produces per unit of market value. When it exceeds the discount rate of our models (10.0 %), the business already earns more than its cost of capital demands, and the price needs little additional growth.
What is the intrinsic value of Suruga Bank Ltd (SUGBY)?
Intrinsic value and fair value mean the same thing: what the business is worth on its numbers, independent of the share price. For Suruga Bank Ltd ADR it is $121.52 per share (as of Oct 3, 2026), against a price of $186.00. It is the blended result of 6 valuation models (cash flow, earnings, asset, dividend).
Is Suruga Bank Ltd ADR stock overvalued or undervalued in 2026?
As of Oct 3, 2026, SUGBY trades above its calculated fair value: price $186.00, fair value $121.52, a gap of about −35% (overvalued). The calculation is refreshed with each new quarterly report, so the verdict can change during the year.
Is fair value the same as the market price of SUGBY?
No. The price is what the market pays today ($186.00); the fair value is what the company's own numbers justify ($121.52). For Suruga Bank Ltd ADR the two are $64.48 per share apart. That gap is exactly why we show both numbers side by side.
How much is Suruga Bank Ltd ADR worth?
The market values Suruga Bank Ltd ADR at about $1.3B (market capitalisation, as of Oct 3, 2026). Per share that is $186.00; our models calculate a fair value of $121.52 per share.
What do the bullish and bearish scenarios say about SUGBY?
Our models span a range for Suruga Bank Ltd ADR: cautious scenario $108.96, base $121.52, optimistic $149.18 per share (as of Oct 3, 2026, price $186.00). The range comes from different growth and margin assumptions, not from analyst opinions.
What is the P/E ratio of SUGBY?
Suruga Bank Ltd ADR trades at a price-to-earnings ratio of 10.8 (as of Oct 3, 2026). A P/E on its own says little: it compares the price with ONE year of profit, while our fair value of $121.52 is built from several models across several years. Other multiples: P/B 0.7, P/S 2.2.
How solid is the balance sheet of Suruga Bank Ltd (SUGBY)?
Balance-sheet figures for Suruga Bank Ltd ADR (as of Oct 3, 2026): return on equity 13.7%, debt of 0.00 per unit of equity. They feed the Quality Score of 66/100, which measures business quality independently of the share price.
How far is SUGBY from its 52-week high?
Suruga Bank Ltd ADR trades at $186.00, about 6% below its 52-week high of $197.17 and 132% above the low of $80.02 (as of Oct 15, 2026). Distance from the high says nothing about value: that is what the fair value of $121.52 is for.
Which stocks are comparable to Suruga Bank Ltd ADR?
From the same area (Financial Services) we also value DBS Group, China Merchants Bank Co, UniCredit S.p.A, Intesa Sanpaolo S.p.A, among others. Each of them has its own fair-value calculation on this site using the same models, so the comparison is like for like.
Is Suruga Bank Ltd ADR stock attractive at the current price?
The data as of Oct 3, 2026: price $186.00, calculated fair value $121.52 (−35%), Quality Score 66/100, from 6 models. Whether that fits your horizon and risk tolerance is your call. We provide the calculation, not investment advice.
How is the fair value of SUGBY calculated?
We run Suruga Bank Ltd ADR through 6 models from four families: discounted cash flow, earnings models, asset and balance-sheet models, and dividend models. Every model gets the same audited fundamentals; the result is the weighted average of $121.52, with the spread shown as a cautious and an optimistic scenario.
Is it still worth investing in stocks now?
The global stock market currently sits 13.2 % above its aggregate fair value. Suruga Bank Ltd ADR itself currently trades above fair value. An expensive market is no reason to stay out and no reason to buy everything at once: keep a broad savings plan running, buy single stocks only with money you can do without, and hold part of your money liquid while the market is high. The full picture including sectors is on is it worth investing now.
What is the share price of Suruga Bank Ltd (SUGBY)?
The latest price we hold is from Oct 15, 2026 and stands at $186.00. Our model-based fair value is $121.52, about −35% upside (overvalued). We carry closing prices from our data provider, not a live tick.
What should I pay attention to with Suruga Bank Ltd ADR right now?
The price sits above even our optimistic bull case ($149.18). The favourable scenario is already priced in. Solid but not exceptional quality (66/100) and above fair value, neither a clear bargain nor a standout compounder. For a financial, book-value and earnings-based methods matter more than a cash-flow DCF, which fits banks and insurers poorly.
Where does the earnings growth of Suruga Bank Ltd (SUGBY) come from?
Earnings per share at Suruga Bank Ltd ADR grew −2.3 % a year from 2015 to 2026. Broken into its drivers: revenue per share −2.6 %, EBIT margin −3.7 %, tax rate +3.2 %, residual (interest, one-offs) +1.0 %. The four rates multiply to the earnings growth rate, they do not add up. Start and end are three-year averages so a single exceptional year does not distort the result.
Key figures of Suruga Bank Ltd ADR
How large is the market capitalisation of Suruga Bank Ltd (SUGBY)?
The market capitalisation of Suruga Bank Ltd ADR is $1.3B. The stock-market value of the whole company: share price times number of shares. It is what the market asks for the entire business today.
What is the P/S ratio of Suruga Bank Ltd (SUGBY)?
The price-to-sales ratio of Suruga Bank Ltd ADR is 4.41 (P/E × margin). Price to sales: market value relative to yearly revenue. Useful when profit is thin or distorted.
What are the earnings per share of Suruga Bank Ltd (SUGBY)?
Earnings per share at Suruga Bank Ltd ADR are $7.39 (price ÷ EPS = P/E 10.8). Earnings per share over the last twelve months: total profit spread across every single share.
What is the dividend yield of Suruga Bank Ltd (SUGBY)?
The dividend yield of Suruga Bank Ltd ADR is 2.5% (payout 62.9%). Yearly dividend relative to the share price. 3% pays 3 per 100 invested. Below: how much of profit is used for it.
What is the net margin of Suruga Bank Ltd (SUGBY)?
The net margin of Suruga Bank Ltd ADR is 40.7% (fiscal year 2026). How much of every unit of revenue ends up as profit. 10% means 10 cents of profit per dollar of sales.
What is the return on equity of Suruga Bank Ltd (SUGBY)?
The return on equity (ROE) of Suruga Bank Ltd ADR is 13.7% (last twelve months). Profit relative to shareholders' equity, how efficiently the company works with its owners' money.
What is the EBIT return on assets of Suruga Bank Ltd (SUGBY)?
On an EBIT basis the return on assets of Suruga Bank Ltd ADR is 0.5% (avg 5y). Operating profit (EBIT) relative to everything the company owns, as a multi-year average. It describes the business model rather than one good or bad year.
What is the operating margin of Suruga Bank Ltd (SUGBY)?
The operating margin of Suruga Bank Ltd ADR is 59.8% (last twelve months). Profit from the core business (before interest and taxes) relative to revenue.
How fast is revenue growing at Suruga Bank Ltd (SUGBY)?
Revenue at Suruga Bank Ltd ADR is growing +39.9% versus a year earlier (3y avg +17.5%). How much revenue grew versus a year earlier (YoY). The 3-year average next to it puts the single year in context.
How fast are earnings growing at Suruga Bank Ltd (SUGBY)?
Earnings per share at Suruga Bank Ltd ADR are growing +177% versus a year earlier. How much earnings per share grew versus a year earlier.
How much net cash does Suruga Bank Ltd (SUGBY) hold?
Suruga Bank Ltd ADR holds more cash than debt, ¥436B net (fiscal year 2026). The company holds more cash than debt, a safety cushion.
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Some data
Oct 3, 2026