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Supernus Pharmaceuticals Inc (SUPN) fair value: what the stock is really worth

As of Sep 23, 2026: fair value of Supernus Pharmaceuticals Inc $14.98, price $43.39, upside -65.5%, quality 56 out of 100. Calculated from audited financials with 26 valuation models and 37 quality factors, updated daily.

  1. Fair value above price? No
  2. Good quality? Yes
  3. Add to watchlist

Healthcare · US · ISIN US8684591089

SP Supernus Pharmaceuticals Inc logo Some data Sep 23, 2026

Supernus Pharmaceuticals Inc

SUPN · US

Stretched ValuationStrong overvaluation with only moderate quality.

!Fair value $14.98 · Strongly overvalued (−65%)
!Quality 56/100
!Mixed Growth (revenue 5y +6.7 %/yr)
!Loss-making · -3.7% net margin (TTM)
✓Low debt · generates free cash flow
!Trails peers (2/13)
!Narrow moat 19/100
!Insider activity 40/100
!Evidence only medium, so the estimate is less certain
!The models disagree: range $8.82 to $31.08
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What runs behind every stock

26 valuation models 8 families, DCF to NCAV 37 quality factors margins, balance sheet, cashflow, debt 6 AI factors moat, what no ratio measures 2,000+ data points verified, per stock, median

69 individual criteria per stock, every one traceable See the method →

Price vs Fair Value

$57.00 $22.72 Fair Value $14.98 Jun 2021 Sep 2026

White line = price, green steps = our fair value per fiscal year, dashed = 300-day average. As of Sep 23, 2026.

How to read this chart

60‑month range $22.72 – $57.00 · fair‑value band $8.82 – $31.08 · the $43.39 price screens above the $14.98 fair value. Green steps = our fair value per fiscal year (point-in-time, no hindsight). Dashed = 300-day average. As of Sep 23, 2026.

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Company profile

Supernus Pharmaceuticals, Inc., a biopharmaceutical company, engages in the development and commercialization of products for the treatment of central nervous system (CNS) diseases in the United States.

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Supernus Pharmaceuticals, Inc., a biopharmaceutical company, engages in the development and commercialization of products for the treatment of central nervous system (CNS) diseases in the United States. It offers Qelbree, a non-stimulant indicated for the treatment of attention-deficit hyperactivity disorder (ADHD); GOCOVRI for the treatment of dyskinesia and levodopa/carbidopa in patients with Parkinson's Disease (PD); Oxtellar XR, an extended-release oxcarbazepine product indicated for the monotherapy treatment of partial onset epilepsy seizures; and APOKYN for the acute and intermittent treatment of hypomobility or off episodes in patients with advanced PD. It also provides Trokendi XR, an extended release topiramate product indicated for the treatment of epilepsy, as well as for the prophylaxis of migraine headache; XADAGO for the treatment of levodopa/carbidopa in patients with PD experiencing off episodes; and MYOBLOC, a Type B toxin product indicated for the treatment of cervical dystonia and chronic sialorrhea. In addition, the company develops ONAPGO, which received FDA approval, for the treatment of motor fluctuations in adults with advanced PD; SPN-817, a first-in-class selective acetylcholinesterase inhibitor, which is in Phase 2 clinical trial, for the treatment of epilepsy, partial seizures, Dravet syndrome, and Lennox-Gaustaut syndrome; SPN-820, a small molecule in Phase 2 clinical trial for treating resistant depression; and SPN-443, a stimulant in Phase 1 trial for the treatment of ADHD/CNS. It markets and sells its products through pharmaceutical wholesalers, specialty pharmacies, and distributors. It has a development agreement with Navitor Inc. for the conduct of Phase 2 clinical program of SPN-820. Supernus Pharmaceuticals, Inc. was incorporated in 2005 and is based in Rockville, Maryland.

Stock analysis

Supernus Pharmaceuticals Inc (SUPN) currently trades at $43.39, while our model-based Fair Value estimate is $14.98, implying the stock looks roughly 189.7% overvalued today.

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Valuation

Bull case: the DCF Models group reads highest at a median of $15.08 per share, and 0 of the 11 models we run sit above the $43.39 price.

Bear case: the Multiples group reads lowest at $5.98, and 11 of the 11 models stay below the price. Evidence for this calculation is medium.

Scenario range: $8.82 (bear) to $31.08 (bull), the price of $43.39 sits above it. Bear and bull are the same models on cautious and optimistic assumptions, a range, not a price target.

Quality & growth

The Quality Score stands at 56/100 (solid quality), in the Healthcare sector.

Mixed Growth: Revenue is growing, but margins or cash flow do not fully confirm the trend.

Supernus Pharmaceuticals Inc reported revenue of $719M in FY2025 versus $580M in FY2021, a compound +5.5%/yr. Reported net income was −$38.6M in FY2025.

Key figures

Market cap $2.8B · P/S ratio 3.64 · EPS (TTM) $−0.5100 · Net margin −5.4% · Return on equity −2.8% · Return on assets (EBIT) 2.2% · Operating margin −3.6% · Revenue (TTM) $777M.

Competitive moat

Our AI-assisted moat analysis scores the competitive advantage at 48 out of 100 (low confidence).

What moves the price

The share trades about 24% below its 52-week high and 5% above its 52-week low, currently below its 200-day average.

For context, the median of 10 Healthcare peers we cover trades at −8% fair-value upside, at −65%, SUPN screens richer than that median.

Fair Value models

Bear $8.82 Fair Value $14.98 Bull $31.08
Model ⓘEach model values the company its own way (discounted cash flow, earnings, assets, dividends). The fair value above is their evidence-weighted blend, not the output of a single model. Bear ⓘBear = the cautious scenario: the same model computed with conservative anchors (lower growth, margins and valuation multiples). Together with Bull it frames a plausible valuation range, not a price target.BaseBull ⓘBull = the optimistic scenario: the same model computed with favourable anchors (higher growth, margins and valuation multiples). Together with Bear it frames a plausible valuation range, not a price target. Evidence ⓘEvidence = how well-backed THIS model's estimate is for this stock (0–100): how complete and reliable its input data are, and how well the model fits the company. The final Fair Value is an evidence-weighted blend, so better-evidenced models count more. Green ≥70, amber 50–69, grey below 50.
Highest evidence
Growth DCF $7.52 $18.21 $35.44 71
FCF DCF $8.28 $15.08 $36.29 70
5Y EBITDA Exit $6.38 $14.28 $29.75 67
All 11 models by family
DCF Models
FCF DCF $8.28 $15.08 $36.29 70
Owner Earnings $8.51 $24.11 $55.66 66
5Y Revenue Exit $4.99 $11.45 $24.96 64
5Y EBITDA Exit $6.38 $14.28 $29.75 67
10Y Revenue Exit $5.81 $17.07 $23.99 63
10Y EBITDA Exit $7.12 $20.01 $42.14 60
Multiples
EV/EBITDA $5.30 $8.50 $11.71 66
EV/Revenue $2.89 $5.98 $9.07 51
Asset-Based
NCAV (Graham) $9.15 $12.26 $18.29 54
Growth DCF
Growth DCF $7.52 $18.21 $35.44 71
Rev-Margin DCF $5.94 $13.73 $30.05 64

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Quality Score breakdown

Overall quality 56/100

Of which business quality 58 · Market factors (momentum, volatility) 41

Profitability 25
Margins and returns on capital today
Quality Growth 33
Are margins and returns improving?
Cashflow 57
Earnings quality: real cash, not paper profit
Fin. Strength 73
Balance sheet, leverage, solvency risk
Investment 90
Disciplined investing over empire-building
Low Volatility 75
Calm price path (market factor)
Momentum 32
Price trend over the last 3–12 months (market factor)
52W Momentum 19
Distance to the 52-week high (market factor)
Net Issuance 86
Share count: buybacks or dilution?

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Revenue & earnings trend

Growth Quality ⓘGrowth is valuable only when reinvestment earns attractive returns (Aswath Damodaran): sustainable growth depends on return on capital, reinvestment and efficiency. Basis: total company revenue over the periods shown on the cards (3Y/5Y/all years), not per share, so a merger can show up as a growth jump; per-share earnings growth is in the value-creation card. 37/100
Revenue is growing, but margins or cash flow do not fully confirm the trend.
Revenue growth 1 year
+8.6%
Revenue growth 3 years ⓘMeasures the company's TOTAL revenue from reported annual statements: compound average growth per year (CAGR) from the fiscal year 3, 5 or N years back to the most recent comparable fiscal year. Not per share: buybacks do not change this number, and a merger can appear as a growth jump. Per-share growth (which does include buybacks) is in the value-creation card.
+2.5%
Revenue growth 5 years ⓘMeasures the company's TOTAL revenue from reported annual statements: compound average growth per year (CAGR) from the fiscal year 3, 5 or N years back to the most recent comparable fiscal year. Not per share: buybacks do not change this number, and a merger can appear as a growth jump. Per-share growth (which does include buybacks) is in the value-creation card.
+6.7%
Start year 2020 (pandemic). Over 10 years: +17.4% a year
Revenue growth 18 years ⓘMeasures the company's TOTAL revenue from reported annual statements: compound average growth per year (CAGR) from the fiscal year 3, 5 or N years back to the most recent comparable fiscal year. Not per share: buybacks do not change this number, and a merger can appear as a growth jump. Per-share growth (which does include buybacks) is in the value-creation card.
+33.0%
Profit margin (trend) ⓘOperating margin then vs now, from reported annual statements. A falling margin after a boom year is the classic peak-earnings signal: the growth rate then leans on an inflated base.
33.4% (2020) → −5.1% (2025)
What shareholders gained per year ⓘWe only publish this rate when it is defensible. Reason: fiscal 2025 is a loss year, no rate is defined from a loss
not computed

Growth Forecast

A lot of optimism in the price
The price assumes more growth than the company has delivered so far and more than analysts expect.
What the price assumes ⓘThis turns our valuation around: instead of asking what the share is worth, it asks what growth the current price requires. It uses the cash the company keeps after all spending (free cash flow), the same discount rate as our models, five years of growth, then slowing evenly to 2 % a year by year ten. Compared with the analysts' sales forecasts extended to the same five years (at least three analysts, for context only, it does not enter the Fair Value): within 3 percentage points counts as "in line" (amber), below that little optimism (green), above that a lot of optimism (red).
+28.1%
Yearly growth needed for the next five years to justify today's price.
What forecasts expect ⓘAnalysts publish sales forecasts for the next two fiscal years. For the years after that, growth slows evenly to 2 % a year by year ten (2 % is the long-run rate our models use). Projected years are marked as such.
+16.1%
Yearly sales growth analysts expect, extended to five years.
After inflation (USA: IMF forecast 2.4% a year to 2030, 3.1% from 2016 to 2025) that is about +25.1% a year for the price and +13.4% for the forecasts.
Forecast 2026 (sales)+20.6%
Forecast 2027 (sales)+18.0%
Projected 2028 (sales)+16.0%
Projected 2029 (sales)+14.0%
Projected 2030 (sales)+12.0%

SUPN screens 190% overvalued. Compare with Merck KGaA →

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Peer GroupⓘHow this stock ranks against its industry: the green marker is this stock, the band is the typical 25–75% peer range, and the tick is the median.Drug Manufacturers - Specialty & Generic · 611 stocks

Beats the industry median on 2/12 measures
Overall it trails its industry peers.
Valuation
Quality Score 56 · Above median
Fair Value upside −66% · Bottom 25%
Profitability
Return on assets 1% · Below median
Net margin (TTM) −4% · Below median
Operating margin (TTM) −4% · Bottom 25%
Growth and dividend
Revenue growth 39% · Top 25%
Balance sheet
Debt / equity 0.36× · Highest 25%

Valuation Multiplesvs Drug Manufacturers - Specialty & Generic median · lower = cheaper

P/B 2.66× · Pricier than median
P/S (TTM) 3.64× · Pricier than median
P/FCF 61.5× · Priciest 25%
EV/EBITDA 25.1× · Priciest 25%
PEG 1.47× · Pricier than median

Strength profile in five axes (Snowflake)

VALUEFUTUREPASTHEALTHDIVIDEND
This stock
VALUEFUTUREPASTHEALTHDIVIDEND
Sector peers
VALUE (fair-value potential)0 · sector 12
FUTURE (revenue growth)100 · sector 20
PAST (return on equity)0 · sector 25
HEALTH (low debt)82 · sector 96
DIVIDEND (yield)0 · sector 30

VALUE 0: the price sits above our fair-value range.

Context: sector, industry, market

Values & ESG

Does this company touch areas you may want to avoid? The classification is inferred from sector and industry.

None of the checked exposures detected

Similar stocks

10 more Drug Manufacturers - Specialty & Generic stocks, each showing price versus our Fair Value estimate.

Stock Price Fair Value vs Fair Value
Merck KGaA MRK €133.15 €108.70 −18%
Takeda Pharmaceutical Company TAK $18.95 $11.29 −40%
Jiangsu Hengrui Pharmaceuticals Co 600276 ¥45.72 ¥50.29 +10%
Sun Pharmaceutical Industries Limited SUNPHARMA ₹1,846 ₹1,979 +7%
Galderma Group GALD CHF 163.80 CHF 109.88 −33%
Haleon plc HLN $9.25 $8.50 −8%
Teva Pharmaceutical Industries Limited TEVA $39.52 $20.75 −47%
Sandoz Group SDZ CHF 70.76 CHF 40.16 −43%
Zoetis Inc ZTS $72.86 $108.48 +49%
Hansoh Pharmaceutical Group 3692 HK$35.34 HK$38.87 +10%

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$14.98 −190%Fair Value
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Cite: Fair Value Calculator (2026). "Supernus Pharmaceuticals Inc Fair Value". https://www.fairvalue-calculator.com/stock/SUPN

Frequently asked questions

Is Supernus Pharmaceuticals Inc (SUPN) overvalued or undervalued?
As of Sep 23, 2026, our model estimates a fair value of $14.98 versus a price of $43.39, about −65% upside (overvalued).
What is the fair value of SUPN?
Our model-based fair value for Supernus Pharmaceuticals Inc is $14.98 (as of Sep 23, 2026), built from audited fundamentals. The current price: $43.39.
What is the quality score of SUPN?
Supernus Pharmaceuticals Inc has a Quality Score of 56/100. It measures business quality (profitability, growth, cash flow, balance-sheet strength, investment discipline, share issuance). Market factors such as price momentum and volatility do not enter the number; they are shown separately in the detail view.
What is the price target for Supernus Pharmaceuticals Inc (SUPN)?
Our model-based price target is the fair value of $14.98 (as of Sep 23, 2026) from 11 valuation models. Cautious scenario $8.82, optimistic scenario $31.08. It is a calculation from audited fundamentals, not an analyst target.
What is the Supernus Pharmaceuticals Inc stock forecast for 2026?
Our models put fair value at $14.98, about −65% upside versus a price of $43.39 (overvalued). Cautious scenario $8.82, optimistic scenario $31.08. The calculation is refreshed regularly with new filings.
What is the revenue of Supernus Pharmaceuticals Inc (SUPN)?
Supernus Pharmaceuticals Inc reported trailing-twelve-month revenue of about $777M (latest available figure, as of Sep 23, 2026).
What growth is priced into Supernus Pharmaceuticals Inc (SUPN)?
For today's price to be fair in a discounted-cash-flow model, Supernus Pharmaceuticals Inc would have to grow free cash flow by +28.1 % per year for five years (discount rate 8.6 %, then slowing evenly to 2 % perpetual growth by year ten). Over the last 5 years revenue grew +6.7 % per year. As of Sep 23, 2026.
What discount rate (WACC) does the fair value of SUPN use?
Our models discount Supernus Pharmaceuticals Inc at 8.6 %: a base by market capitalisation (mid), damped by beta 0.54, country premium for USA. The same rate applies in all 26 models.
What is a reverse DCF?
A reverse DCF turns the usual calculation around. Instead of deriving a value from assumptions, it takes today's price as given and asks: what free-cash-flow growth would a company have to deliver for exactly this price to be fair? The result is not a forecast but the expectation already priced in. For Supernus Pharmaceuticals Inc that is +28.1 % per year a year over ten years, using the same discount rate (8.6 %) and the same formula as our fair value.
How much growth has Supernus Pharmaceuticals Inc (SUPN) delivered so far?
Over the past 5 years revenue at Supernus Pharmaceuticals Inc grew +6.7 % a year. The price currently implies +28.1 % per year free-cash-flow growth a year. Comparing the two shows how much confidence is in the price: if it demands more than has been delivered, the business has to accelerate for the maths to work.
How fast is the sector of Supernus Pharmaceuticals Inc (SUPN) growing?
The median revenue growth in the sector is +4.2 % a year. That is the yardstick for the growth priced into Supernus Pharmaceuticals Inc (+28.1 % per year a year): it shows whether the expectation is within the usual range or beyond it.
What is the free cash flow yield of Supernus Pharmaceuticals Inc (SUPN)?
The free-cash-flow yield on the price is 1.88 %: that much free cash flow Supernus Pharmaceuticals Inc produces per unit of market value. When it exceeds the discount rate of our models (8.6 %), the business already earns more than its cost of capital demands, and the price needs little additional growth.
What is the intrinsic value of Supernus Pharmaceuticals Inc (SUPN)?
Intrinsic value and fair value mean the same thing: what the business is worth on its numbers, independent of the share price. For Supernus Pharmaceuticals Inc it is $14.98 per share (as of Sep 23, 2026), against a price of $43.39. It is the blended result of 11 valuation models (cash flow, earnings, asset, dividend).
Is Supernus Pharmaceuticals Inc stock overvalued or undervalued in 2026?
As of Sep 23, 2026, SUPN trades above its calculated fair value: price $43.39, fair value $14.98, a gap of about −65% (overvalued). The calculation is refreshed with each new quarterly report, so the verdict can change during the year.
Is fair value the same as the market price of SUPN?
No. The price is what the market pays today ($43.39); the fair value is what the company's own numbers justify ($14.98). For Supernus Pharmaceuticals Inc the two are $28.41 per share apart. That gap is exactly why we show both numbers side by side.
How much is Supernus Pharmaceuticals Inc worth?
The market values Supernus Pharmaceuticals Inc at about $2.8B (market capitalisation, as of Sep 23, 2026). Per share that is $43.39; our models calculate a fair value of $14.98 per share.
What do the bullish and bearish scenarios say about SUPN?
Our models span a range for Supernus Pharmaceuticals Inc: cautious scenario $8.82, base $14.98, optimistic $31.08 per share (as of Sep 23, 2026, price $43.39). The range comes from different growth and margin assumptions, not from analyst opinions.
What is the PEG ratio of SUPN?
The PEG ratio of Supernus Pharmaceuticals Inc is 1.47 (P/E divided by earnings growth, as of Sep 23, 2026). That is above 1, so the growth is already paid for in the price.
How solid is the balance sheet of Supernus Pharmaceuticals Inc (SUPN)?
Balance-sheet figures for Supernus Pharmaceuticals Inc (as of Sep 23, 2026): return on equity −2.8%, debt of 0.36 per unit of equity. They feed the Quality Score of 56/100, which measures business quality independently of the share price.
How far is SUPN from its 52-week high?
Supernus Pharmaceuticals Inc trades at $43.39, about 24% below its 52-week high of $57.00 and 5% above the low of $41.28 (as of Sep 23, 2026). Distance from the high says nothing about value: that is what the fair value of $14.98 is for.
Which stocks are comparable to Supernus Pharmaceuticals Inc?
From the same area (Healthcare) we also value Merck KGaA, Takeda Pharmaceutical Company, Jiangsu Hengrui Pharmaceuticals Co, Sun Pharmaceutical Industries Limited, among others. Each of them has its own fair-value calculation on this site using the same models, so the comparison is like for like.
Is Supernus Pharmaceuticals Inc stock attractive at the current price?
The data as of Sep 23, 2026: price $43.39, calculated fair value $14.98 (−65%), Quality Score 56/100, from 11 models. Whether that fits your horizon and risk tolerance is your call. We provide the calculation, not investment advice.
How is the fair value of SUPN calculated?
We run Supernus Pharmaceuticals Inc through 11 models from four families: discounted cash flow, earnings models, asset and balance-sheet models, and dividend models. Every model gets the same audited fundamentals; the result is the weighted average of $14.98, with the spread shown as a cautious and an optimistic scenario.
Is it still worth investing in stocks now?
The global stock market currently sits 14.1 % above its aggregate fair value. Supernus Pharmaceuticals Inc itself currently trades above fair value. An expensive market is no reason to stay out and no reason to buy everything at once: keep a broad savings plan running, buy single stocks only with money you can do without, and hold part of your money liquid while the market is high. The full picture including sectors is on is it worth investing now.
What is the share price of Supernus Pharmaceuticals Inc (SUPN)?
The closing price on Sep 23, 2026 was $43.39. Our model-based fair value is $14.98, about −65% upside (overvalued). We carry closing prices from our data provider, not a live tick.
What should I pay attention to with Supernus Pharmaceuticals Inc right now?
The price sits above even our optimistic bull case ($31.08). The favourable scenario is already priced in. The model range is unusually wide ($8.82 to $31.08). The outcome hinges heavily on assumptions, so read the point estimate with caution. Solid but not exceptional quality (56/100) and above fair value, neither a clear bargain nor a standout compounder.

Key figures of Supernus Pharmaceuticals Inc

How large is the market capitalisation of Supernus Pharmaceuticals Inc (SUPN)?
The market capitalisation of Supernus Pharmaceuticals Inc is $2.8B. The stock-market value of the whole company: share price times number of shares. It is what the market asks for the entire business today.
What is the P/S ratio of Supernus Pharmaceuticals Inc (SUPN)?
The price-to-sales ratio of Supernus Pharmaceuticals Inc is 3.64 (last twelve months). Price to sales: market value relative to yearly revenue. Useful when profit is thin or distorted.
What are the earnings per share of Supernus Pharmaceuticals Inc (SUPN)?
Earnings per share at Supernus Pharmaceuticals Inc are $−0.5100. Earnings per share over the last twelve months: total profit spread across every single share.
What is the net margin of Supernus Pharmaceuticals Inc (SUPN)?
The net margin of Supernus Pharmaceuticals Inc is −5.4% (fiscal year 2025). How much of every unit of revenue ends up as profit. 10% means 10 cents of profit per dollar of sales.
What is the return on equity of Supernus Pharmaceuticals Inc (SUPN)?
The return on equity (ROE) of Supernus Pharmaceuticals Inc is −2.8% (last twelve months). Profit relative to shareholders' equity, how efficiently the company works with its owners' money.
What is the EBIT return on assets of Supernus Pharmaceuticals Inc (SUPN)?
On an EBIT basis the return on assets of Supernus Pharmaceuticals Inc is 2.2% (avg 5y). Operating profit (EBIT) relative to everything the company owns, as a multi-year average. It describes the business model rather than one good or bad year.
What is the operating margin of Supernus Pharmaceuticals Inc (SUPN)?
The operating margin of Supernus Pharmaceuticals Inc is −3.6% (last twelve months). Profit from the core business (before interest and taxes) relative to revenue.
How fast is revenue growing at Supernus Pharmaceuticals Inc (SUPN)?
Revenue at Supernus Pharmaceuticals Inc is growing +38.6% versus a year earlier (3y avg +2.5%). How much revenue grew versus a year earlier (YoY). The 3-year average next to it puts the single year in context.
How fast are earnings growing at Supernus Pharmaceuticals Inc (SUPN)?
Earnings per share at Supernus Pharmaceuticals Inc are growing +11.1% versus a year earlier. How much earnings per share grew versus a year earlier.
How much net cash does Supernus Pharmaceuticals Inc (SUPN) hold?
Supernus Pharmaceuticals Inc holds more cash than debt, $87.5M net (fiscal year 2025). The company holds more cash than debt, a safety cushion.
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