Supernus Pharmaceuticals, Inc (SUPN) Fair Value & Analysis

Healthcare · US · Market cap $2.8B

A solid business, but screening 70% overvalued on our models.

What matters now

• The price sits above even our optimistic bull case ($17.54). The favourable scenario is already priced in.
• Solid but not exceptional quality (56/100) and above fair value, neither a clear bargain nor a standout compounder.

Price vs Fair Value (5 years)

White line = price, green steps = our fair value per fiscal year, dashed = 300-day average. As of Jul 11, 2026.

How to read this chart

60‑month range $22.72 – $57.00 · fair‑value band $11.13 – $17.54 · the $47.64 price screens above the $14.33 fair value. Green steps = our fair value per fiscal year (point-in-time, no hindsight). Dashed = 300-day average. As of Jul 11, 2026.

Full chart & analysis →

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Analysis

Supernus Pharmaceuticals, Inc (SUPN) currently trades at $47.64, while our model-based Fair Value estimate is $14.33, implying the stock looks roughly 69.9% overvalued today. The Quality Score stands at 56/100 (solid quality), in the Healthcare sector. Bear case: priced above our estimate, the market already discounts strong expectations. Bull case: above-average quality can justify a premium, the entry price still matters most (evidence: medium).

Over the trailing twelve months, Supernus Pharmaceuticals, Inc generated revenue of $777M at a net margin of -3.7%. Revenue grew 38.6% year over year. It earns a return on equity of -2.8%. The balance sheet holds a net cash position of $87.5M. Fundamentals as of Jul 11, 2026

Our scenario range runs from $11.13 (bear case) to $17.54 (bull case); at $47.64, the current price sits above that range. Bear and bull are the same models run on conservative and optimistic assumptions (margins, growth, valuation multiples), so a plausible valuation range, not a price target. The share trades about 20% below its 52-week high and 55% above its 52-week low, currently below its 200-day average. For context, the median of 10 Healthcare peers we cover trades at -49% fair-value upside, at -70%, SUPN screens richer than that median.

Fair Value models

Each model estimates fair value its own way; the Fair Value above is the evidence-weighted blend. Evidence (0–100) measures how completely this model’s inputs are available: well-fed models carry more weight in the blend. The spread across models is intentional, each one stresses a different value driver; dividend models, for instance, come out structurally low when payout is small.

Widest divergence: DCF Models ($15.08) versus Multiples ($5.98). Highest evidence: Growth DCF (80).

Key figures & financial health

Quality Score breakdown

About the company

Supernus Pharmaceuticals, Inc., a biopharmaceutical company, engages in the development and commercialization of products for the treatment of central nervous system (CNS) diseases in the United States.

Full company description

Supernus Pharmaceuticals, Inc., a biopharmaceutical company, engages in the development and commercialization of products for the treatment of central nervous system (CNS) diseases in the United States. It offers Qelbree, a non-stimulant indicated for the treatment of attention-deficit hyperactivity disorder (ADHD); GOCOVRI for the treatment of dyskinesia and levodopa/carbidopa in patients with Parkinson's Disease (PD); Oxtellar XR, an extended-release oxcarbazepine product indicated for the monotherapy treatment of partial onset epilepsy seizures; and APOKYN for the acute and intermittent treatment of hypomobility or off episodes in patients with advanced PD. It also provides Trokendi XR, an extended release topiramate product indicated for the treatment of epilepsy, as well as for the prophylaxis of migraine headache; XADAGO for the treatment of levodopa/carbidopa in patients with PD experiencing off episodes; and MYOBLOC, a Type B toxin product indicated for the treatment of cervical dystonia and chronic sialorrhea. In addition, the company develops ONAPGO, which received FDA approval, for the treatment of motor fluctuations in adults with advanced PD; SPN-817, a first-in-class selective acetylcholinesterase inhibitor, which is in Phase 2 clinical trial, for the treatment of epilepsy, partial seizures, Dravet syndrome, and Lennox-Gaustaut syndrome; SPN-820, a small molecule in Phase 2 clinical trial for treating resistant depression; and SPN-443, a stimulant in Phase 1 trial for the treatment of ADHD/CNS. It markets and sells its products through pharmaceutical wholesalers, specialty pharmacies, and distributors. It has a development agreement with Navitor Inc. for the conduct of Phase 2 clinical program of SPN-820. Supernus Pharmaceuticals, Inc. was incorporated in 2005 and is based in Rockville, Maryland.

Company description, as reported by the company or data provider.

Revenue & earnings trend

FY2021 – FY2025 · reported fiscal years

Supernus Pharmaceuticals, Inc reported revenue of $719M in FY2025 versus $580M in FY2021, a compound +5.5%/yr. Reported net income was −$38.6M in FY2025.

SUPN screens 70% overvalued. Compare with Jiangsu Hengrui Pharmaceuticals Co →

Peer Group

Drug Manufacturers - Specialty & Generic · 626 stocks

How this stock ranks against its industry: the green marker is this stock, the band is the typical 25–75% peer range, and the tick is the median.

Valuation Multiples vs Drug Manufacturers - Specialty & Generic median · lower = cheaper

Snowflake

Five quick dimensions, each 0 to 100: VALUE (fair-value potential), FUTURE (revenue growth), PAST (return on equity), HEALTH (low debt), DIVIDEND (yield). Green = this stock, grey = typical sector peer.

VALUE 0: the price sits above our fair-value range.

Insider activity: 40/100

Values & ESG

Does this company touch areas you may want to avoid? The classification is inferred from sector and industry.

ESG scores are not available for this stock yet. Values and ESG data are contextual and can differ between providers.

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Frequently asked questions

How we calculate Fair Value

Each company is valued through a stack of independent intrinsic-value models (DCF variants, residual-income, multiples and more), blended into one family-balanced consensus and weighted by how much trustworthy data backs it. A separate quality layer scores the fundamentals. Every input is real reported data, nothing guessed.