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Severn Trent PLC (SVTRF) fair value: what the stock is really worth
As of Oct 2, 2026: fair value of Severn Trent PLC $15.49, price $41.43, upside -62.6%, quality 34 out of 100. Calculated from audited financials with 26 valuation models and 37 quality factors, updated daily.
- Fair value above price? No
- Good quality? No
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Broad data
Oct 3, 2026
Broad data
Oct 3, 2026
Severn Trent PLC
SVTRF · USWeakest SetupStrongly overvalued and low quality.
!Fair value $15.49 · Strongly overvalued (−62.6%)
!Quality 34/100
!Expensive Growth (revenue 5y +9.2 %/yr)
✓Solidly profitable · 13.1% net margin (TTM)
!High debt · negative free cash flow
!3.0% dividend yield · Watch coverage
✓Wide moat 67/100
What runs behind every stock
26
valuation models
8 families, DCF to NCAV
37
quality factors
margins, balance sheet, cashflow, debt
6
AI factors
moat, what no ratio measures
2,000+
data points
verified, per stock, median
69 individual criteria per stock, every one traceable See the method →
Price vs Fair Value
White line = price, green steps = our fair value per fiscal year, dashed = 300-day average. As of Oct 3, 2026.
How to read this chart
60‑month range $16.00 – $42.48 · fair‑value band $15.49 – $31.19 · the $41.43 price screens above the $15.49 fair value. Dashed = 300-day average. As of Oct 3, 2026.
Company profile
Severn Trent PLC provides water and wastewater services in the United Kingdom. It operates in two segments, Regulated Water and Wastewater, and Business Services. The company offers water and wastewater services to approximately 4.7 million households and businesses.
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Severn Trent PLC provides water and wastewater services in the United Kingdom. It operates in two segments, Regulated Water and Wastewater, and Business Services. The company offers water and wastewater services to approximately 4.7 million households and businesses. It also generates renewable energy from anaerobic digestion, hydropower, wind turbines, and solar technologies; and provides property development services, as well as engages in the sale of surplus land. It offers services to municipal and industrial clients, including the Ministry of Defence and the Coal Authority for the design, building, and operation of water and wastewater treatment facilities and networks. Severn Trent PLC was founded in 1974 and is headquartered in Coventry, the United Kingdom.
Stock analysis
Severn Trent PLC (SVTRF) currently trades at $41.43, while our model-based Fair Value estimate is $15.49, 62.6% below the price, so the stock looks overvalued today.
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Valuation
Bull case: the Multiples group reads highest at a median of $24.06 per share, and 0 of the 12 models we run sit above the $41.43 price.
Bear case: the Asset-Based group reads lowest at $5.43, and 12 of the 12 models stay below the price. Evidence for this calculation is high.
Scenario range: $15.49 (bear) to $31.19 (bull), the price of $41.43 sits above it. Bear and bull are the same models on cautious and optimistic assumptions, a range, not a price target.
Quality & growth
The Quality Score stands at 34/100 (below-average quality), in the Utilities sector.
Expensive Growth: The company is growing, but growth may require heavy reinvestment or weak cash conversion.
Severn Trent PLC reported revenue of £2.8B in FY2026 versus £1.9B in FY2022, a compound +9.9%/yr. Reported net income was £372M in FY2026.
Key figures
Market cap $12.5B · P/E ratio 25.6 · P/S ratio 3.35 · EPS (TTM) $1.62 · Dividend yield 3.0% · Net margin 13.1% · Return on equity 20.5% · Return on assets (EBIT) 4.4%.
Competitive moat
Our AI-assisted moat analysis scores the competitive advantage at 51 out of 100 (medium confidence).
What moves the price
The share trades about 2% below its 52-week high and 19% above its 52-week low, currently above its 200-day average.
For context, the median of 10 Utilities peers we cover trades at −41% fair-value upside, at −63%, SVTRF screens richer than that median.
Fair Value models
Bear $15.49
Fair Value $15.49
Bull $31.19
Model ⓘEach model values the company its own way (discounted cash flow, earnings, assets, dividends). The fair value above is their evidence-weighted blend, not the output of a single model. Based on fiscal year 2026 figures (about 6 months old). Earnings retained since then ($0.1835 per share) are deliberately not added.
Bear ⓘBear = the cautious scenario: the same model computed with conservative anchors (lower growth, margins and valuation multiples). Together with Bull it frames a plausible valuation range, not a price target.BaseBull ⓘBull = the optimistic scenario: the same model computed with favourable anchors (higher growth, margins and valuation multiples). Together with Bear it frames a plausible valuation range, not a price target. If a model's bull case is above four times its base value, the table shows that limit with a > sign (like the overall Bull above): beyond it no assumption holds.
Evidence ⓘEvidence = how well-backed THIS model's estimate is for this stock (0–100): how complete and reliable its input data are, and how well the model fits the company. The final Fair Value is an evidence-weighted blend, so better-evidenced models count more. Green ≥70, amber 50–69, grey below 50.
Highest evidence
Residual Income
$10.02
$12.18
$17.54
75
EPV
n/a
n/a
$4.19
68
ROIC Compounder
n/a
n/a
$4.19
68
All 15 models by family
Earnings-Based
Graham-Dodd
$11.10
$25.92
$33.32
65
PEG = 1.0
$4.42
$6.32
$8.21
57
EPV
n/a
n/a
$4.19
68
Dividend Discount
Gordon GGM
$14.99
$25.57
$38.36
67
DDM Multi-Stage
$14.99
$22.15
$30.07
66
Multiples
P/E Multiple
$22.03
$29.38
$36.72
63
P/S Multiple
$20.81
$27.75
$34.68
58
P/B Multiple
$10.93
$14.58
$18.22
55
EV/EBIT
$7.38
$23.05
$38.72
60
EV/EBITDA
$8.14
$24.06
$39.99
62
EV/Revenue
n/a
n/a
$0.8400
50
Asset-Based
NCAV (Graham)
$4.05
$5.43
$8.10
54
Economic Profit
Residual Income
$10.02
$12.18
$17.54
75
ROIC Compounder
n/a
n/a
$4.19
68
Growth Earnings
Growth-Adj P/E
$16.84
$24.05
$31.27
67
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Set up alert →Quality Score breakdown
Overall quality
34/100
Of which business quality 33 · Market factors (momentum, volatility) 74
Profitability
36
Margins and returns on capital today
Quality Growth
48
Are margins and returns improving?
Cashflow
50
Earnings quality: real cash, not paper profit
Fin. Strength
4
Balance sheet, leverage, solvency risk
Investment
11
Disciplined investing over empire-building
Low Volatility
48
Calm price path (market factor)
Momentum
78
Price trend over the last 3–12 months (market factor)
52W Momentum
98
Distance to the 52-week high (market factor)
Net Issuance
47
Share count: buybacks or dilution?
Revenue & earnings trend
Growth Quality ⓘGrowth is valuable only when reinvestment earns attractive returns (Aswath Damodaran): sustainable growth depends on return on capital, reinvestment and efficiency. Basis: total company revenue over the periods shown on the cards (3Y/5Y/all years), not per share, so a merger can show up as a growth jump; per-share earnings growth is in the value-creation card.
51/100
The company is growing, but growth may require heavy reinvestment or weak cash conversion.
Revenue growth 1 year
+17.0%
Revenue growth 3 years ⓘMeasures the company's TOTAL revenue from reported annual statements: compound average growth per year (CAGR) from the fiscal year 3, 5 or N years back to the most recent comparable fiscal year. Not per share: buybacks do not change this number, and a merger can appear as a growth jump. Per-share growth (which does include buybacks) is in the value-creation card.
+9.4%
Revenue growth 5 years ⓘMeasures the company's TOTAL revenue from reported annual statements: compound average growth per year (CAGR) from the fiscal year 3, 5 or N years back to the most recent comparable fiscal year. Not per share: buybacks do not change this number, and a merger can appear as a growth jump. Per-share growth (which does include buybacks) is in the value-creation card.
+9.2%
Start year 2021 (pandemic). Over 10 years: +4.7% a year
Revenue growth 40 years ⓘMeasures the company's TOTAL revenue from reported annual statements: compound average growth per year (CAGR) from the fiscal year 3, 5 or N years back to the most recent comparable fiscal year. Not per share: buybacks do not change this number, and a merger can appear as a growth jump. Per-share growth (which does include buybacks) is in the value-creation card.
+5.2%
’15
’16
’17
’18
’19
’20
’21
’22
’23
’24
’25
’26
What shareholders gained per year (last 5 years) (mathematically smoothed) ⓘWhat the business itself delivers per year: earnings growth per share plus the dividend yield. This is what you get IF the market keeps valuing the stock the same way: it contains no assumption about the market changing its mind. Computed per share, so buybacks count and a merger does not pass as growth. For a company that pays no dividend it is pure earnings growth per share. Period: earnings growth per share as CAGR over the last 5 reported fiscal years (annual statements), plus the current dividend yield. The start value is the median of the three years around the start, so a single crisis year (a pandemic or a write-down) does not distort the rate. Smoothed = median of all growth paths between the years of the window (trend line on the logarithm of earnings per share): a single extreme year cannot distort the rate. The reported figure stays in the tooltip.
+16.5%
Earnings growth per share plus dividend.
Earnings per share, growth per year+13.5%
Dividend (yield on the price)3.0%
Pace: 5 vs 10 years ⓘTwo data points, not a trend model: earnings growth per share over the last 5 fiscal years against the last 10. Labelled "steady" when both rates are within 3 percentage points of each other, otherwise picking up or flattening. Shown only when ten years of history exist.9.7% vs −1.2%, picking up
Profit margin 2021 to 2026 ⓘOperating margin then vs now, from reported annual statements. A falling margin after a boom year is the classic peak-earnings signal: the growth rate then leans on an inflated base.29% → 34%
2026 sits 135% above its own trend. The rate follows the median trend of the last 5 years, not that single year.
Start year 2021 (pandemic)
Compare Severn Trent PLC with another stock
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Context: sector, industry, market
- P/E, EV/EBITDA and margins by industry (reference tables)
- Undervalued stocks: US Stocks
- Valuation of the USA market
Values & ESG
Does this company touch areas you may want to avoid? The classification is inferred from sector and industry.
None of the checked exposures detected
Similar stocks
10 more Utilities - Regulated Water stocks, each showing price versus our Fair Value estimate.
| Stock | Price | Fair Value | vs Fair Value |
|---|---|---|---|
| American Water Works Company AWK | $127.86 | $64.66 | −49% |
| Essential Utilities, Inc WTRG | $39.23 | $23.30 | −41% |
| Guangdong Investment Limited 0270 | HK$8.71 | HK$12.82 | +47% |
| Grandblue Environment Co 600323 | ¥29.48 | ¥57.09 | +94% |
| American States Water Company AWR | $81.35 | $38.24 | −53% |
| Chengdu Xingrong Environment Co 000598 | ¥7.01 | ¥9.09 | +30% |
| Beijing Capital Eco-Environment Protection Group 600008 | ¥2.71 | ¥3.43 | +27% |
| Chongqing Water Group 601158 | ¥4.00 | ¥1.76 | −56% |
| California Water Service Group CWT | $45.84 | $25.01 | −45% |
| H2O America, through its subsidiaries, HTO | $61.63 | $29.34 | −52% |
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Frequently asked questions
Is Severn Trent PLC (SVTRF) overvalued or undervalued?
As of Oct 3, 2026, our model estimates a fair value of $15.49 versus a price of $41.43, about −63% upside (overvalued).
What is the fair value of SVTRF?
Our model-based fair value for Severn Trent PLC is $15.49 (as of Oct 3, 2026), built from audited fundamentals. The current price: $41.43.
What is the quality score of SVTRF?
Severn Trent PLC has a Quality Score of 34/100. It measures business quality (profitability, growth, cash flow, balance-sheet strength, investment discipline, share issuance). Market factors such as price momentum and volatility do not enter the number; they are shown separately in the detail view.
What is the price target for Severn Trent PLC (SVTRF)?
Our model-based price target is the fair value of $15.49 (as of Oct 3, 2026) from 15 valuation models. Cautious scenario $15.49, optimistic scenario $31.19. It is a calculation from audited fundamentals, not an analyst target.
What is the Severn Trent PLC stock forecast for 2026?
Our models put fair value at $15.49, about −63% upside versus a price of $41.43 (overvalued). Cautious scenario $15.49, optimistic scenario $31.19. The calculation is refreshed regularly with new filings.
What is the revenue of Severn Trent PLC (SVTRF)?
Severn Trent PLC reported trailing-twelve-month revenue of about £2.8B (latest available figure, as of Oct 3, 2026).
Does Severn Trent PLC pay a dividend?
Severn Trent PLC currently shows a dividend yield of about 3.04% relative to its recent price (as of Oct 3, 2026).
What is the intrinsic value of Severn Trent PLC (SVTRF)?
Intrinsic value and fair value mean the same thing: what the business is worth on its numbers, independent of the share price. For Severn Trent PLC it is $15.49 per share (as of Oct 3, 2026), against a price of $41.43. It is the blended result of 15 valuation models (cash flow, earnings, asset, dividend).
Is Severn Trent PLC stock overvalued or undervalued in 2026?
As of Oct 3, 2026, SVTRF trades above its calculated fair value: price $41.43, fair value $15.49, a gap of about −63% (overvalued). The calculation is refreshed with each new quarterly report, so the verdict can change during the year.
Is fair value the same as the market price of SVTRF?
No. The price is what the market pays today ($41.43); the fair value is what the company's own numbers justify ($15.49). For Severn Trent PLC the two are $25.94 per share apart. That gap is exactly why we show both numbers side by side.
How much is Severn Trent PLC worth?
The market values Severn Trent PLC at about $12.5B (market capitalisation, as of Oct 3, 2026). Per share that is $41.43; our models calculate a fair value of $15.49 per share.
What do the bullish and bearish scenarios say about SVTRF?
Our models span a range for Severn Trent PLC: cautious scenario $15.49, base $15.49, optimistic $31.19 per share (as of Oct 3, 2026, price $41.43). The range comes from different growth and margin assumptions, not from analyst opinions.
How far is SVTRF from its 52-week high?
Severn Trent PLC trades at $41.43, about 2% below its 52-week high of $42.48 and 19% above the low of $34.91 (as of Oct 2, 2026). Distance from the high says nothing about value: that is what the fair value of $15.49 is for.
Which stocks are comparable to Severn Trent PLC?
From the same area (Utilities) we also value American Water Works Company, Essential Utilities, Inc, Guangdong Investment Limited, Grandblue Environment Co, among others. Each of them has its own fair-value calculation on this site using the same models, so the comparison is like for like.
Is Severn Trent PLC stock attractive at the current price?
The data as of Oct 3, 2026: price $41.43, calculated fair value $15.49 (−63%), Quality Score 34/100, from 15 models. Whether that fits your horizon and risk tolerance is your call. We provide the calculation, not investment advice.
How is the fair value of SVTRF calculated?
We run Severn Trent PLC through 15 models from four families: discounted cash flow, earnings models, asset and balance-sheet models, and dividend models. Every model gets the same audited fundamentals; the result is the weighted average of $15.49, with the spread shown as a cautious and an optimistic scenario.
Is it still worth investing in stocks now?
The global stock market currently sits 14.5 % above its aggregate fair value. Severn Trent PLC itself currently trades above fair value. An expensive market is no reason to stay out and no reason to buy everything at once: keep a broad savings plan running, buy single stocks only with money you can do without, and hold part of your money liquid while the market is high. The full picture including sectors is on is it worth investing now.
What is the share price of Severn Trent PLC (SVTRF)?
The closing price on Oct 2, 2026 was $41.43. Our model-based fair value is $15.49, about −63% upside (overvalued). We carry closing prices from our data provider, not a live tick.
What should I pay attention to with Severn Trent PLC right now?
The price sits above even our optimistic bull case ($31.19). The favourable scenario is already priced in. Weak quality (34/100) and above fair value at the same time, the margin of safety is missing on both counts. A fairly wide model range ($15.49 to $31.19) leaves room in how you read the outcome.
Where does the earnings growth of Severn Trent PLC (SVTRF) come from?
Earnings per share at Severn Trent PLC grew −3.0 % a year from 2015 to 2026. Broken into its drivers: revenue per share +1.5 %, EBIT margin −1.1 %, tax rate −3.4 %, residual (interest, one-offs) +0.0 %. The four rates multiply to the earnings growth rate, they do not add up. Start and end are three-year averages so a single exceptional year does not distort the result.
Key figures of Severn Trent PLC
How large is the market capitalisation of Severn Trent PLC (SVTRF)?
The market capitalisation of Severn Trent PLC is $12.5B. The stock-market value of the whole company: share price times number of shares. It is what the market asks for the entire business today.
What is the P/E ratio of Severn Trent PLC (SVTRF)?
The price-to-earnings ratio of Severn Trent PLC is 25.6. Price to earnings: how many years of current profit you pay for the stock. A P/E of 10 means ten years of profit.
What is the P/S ratio of Severn Trent PLC (SVTRF)?
The price-to-sales ratio of Severn Trent PLC is 3.35 (P/E × margin). Price to sales: market value relative to yearly revenue. Useful when profit is thin or distorted.
What are the earnings per share of Severn Trent PLC (SVTRF)?
Earnings per share at Severn Trent PLC are $1.62 (price ÷ EPS = P/E 25.6). Earnings per share over the last twelve months: total profit spread across every single share.
What is the dividend yield of Severn Trent PLC (SVTRF)?
The dividend yield of Severn Trent PLC is 3.0% (payout 77.8%). Yearly dividend relative to the share price. 3% pays 3 per 100 invested. Below: how much of profit is used for it.
What is the net margin of Severn Trent PLC (SVTRF)?
The net margin of Severn Trent PLC is 13.1% (fiscal year 2026). How much of every unit of revenue ends up as profit. 10% means 10 cents of profit per dollar of sales.
What is the return on equity of Severn Trent PLC (SVTRF)?
The return on equity (ROE) of Severn Trent PLC is 20.5% (last twelve months). Profit relative to shareholders' equity, how efficiently the company works with its owners' money.
What is the EBIT return on assets of Severn Trent PLC (SVTRF)?
On an EBIT basis the return on assets of Severn Trent PLC is 4.4% (avg 5y). Operating profit (EBIT) relative to everything the company owns, as a multi-year average. It describes the business model rather than one good or bad year.
What is the operating margin of Severn Trent PLC (SVTRF)?
The operating margin of Severn Trent PLC is 28.8% (last twelve months). Profit from the core business (before interest and taxes) relative to revenue.
How fast is revenue growing at Severn Trent PLC (SVTRF)?
Revenue at Severn Trent PLC is growing +15.3% versus a year earlier (3y avg +9.4%). How much revenue grew versus a year earlier (YoY). The 3-year average next to it puts the single year in context.
How fast are earnings growing at Severn Trent PLC (SVTRF)?
Earnings per share at Severn Trent PLC are growing +62.9% versus a year earlier. How much earnings per share grew versus a year earlier.
How much free cash flow does Severn Trent PLC (SVTRF) generate?
The free cash flow of Severn Trent PLC is −£974M (fiscal year 2026). The cash truly left after running and investing in the business, this is what pays dividends and buybacks.
How much net debt does Severn Trent PLC (SVTRF) carry?
The net debt of Severn Trent PLC is £11.0B (fiscal year 2026). Debt minus cash on hand. The note shows how many years of free cash flow could in theory pay it off.
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