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Südzucker AG (SZU) fair value: what the stock is really worth

As of Sep 28, 2026: fair value of Südzucker AG €12.18, price €12.54, upside -2.9%, quality 38 out of 100. Calculated from audited financials with 26 valuation models and 37 quality factors, updated daily.

Fair value above price? No
Good quality? No
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Consumer Defensive · DE · ISIN DE0007297004

Some data Sep 27, 2026

Südzucker AG

SZU · XETRA

Low PriorityFair Value upside is limited and quality is weak.

·Fair value €12.18 · Fairly valued (−2.9%)

!Quality 38/100

!Weak Growth (revenue 5y +4.6 %/yr)

!Loss-making · -4.0% net margin (TTM)

✓Moderate debt · generates free cash flow

!Trails peers (3/14)

!Narrow moat 18/100

!Evidence only medium, so the estimate is less certain

!Weak on valuation: 29 out of 100

26 models, one by oneBear €6.67 to bull €14.25 Growth analysisrevenue history, year by year Quality 38/100 in detail37 factors, each one shown Compared with its peersrank on every measure, side by side

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What runs behind every stock

26 valuation models 8 families, DCF to NCAV 37 quality factors margins, balance sheet, cashflow, debt 6 AI factors moat, what no ratio measures 2,000+ data points verified, per stock, median

69 individual criteria per stock, every one traceable See the method →

Price vs Fair Value

White line = price, green steps = our fair value per fiscal year, dashed = 300-day average. As of Sep 27, 2026.

How to read this chart

60‑month range €8.53 – €16.51 · fair‑value band €6.67 – €14.25 · the €12.54 price screens above the €12.18 fair value. Green steps = our fair value per fiscal year (point-in-time, no hindsight). Dashed = 300-day average. As of Sep 27, 2026.

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Company profile

Südzucker AG produces and sells sugar products in Germany and internationally. The company operates through five segments: Sugar, Special Products, CropEnergies, Starch, and Fruit.

Südzucker AG produces and sells sugar products in Germany and internationally. The company operates through five segments: Sugar, Special Products, CropEnergies, Starch, and Fruit. The Sugar segment produces and sells sugar, sugar specialty products, glucose syrup, and animal feed to food industry, retailers, and agriculture markets, as well as offers by-products of sugar. The Special Products segment produces functional ingredients, including dietary fibers, sugar substitutes, sugar, and vegetable texturates for food, animal feed, non-food, and pharmaceutical industries. This segment also offers frozen and chilled pizzas, frozen pasta, snacks, dressings, sauces, baguettes, breadsnacks, portion packed articles, and non-food products to hotels, caterers, food retailers, and restaurants. The CropEnergies segment produces fuel-grade ethanol, neutral alcohol, protein-based food and animal feed, and liquid CO2 to oil companies and traders, food and animal feed producers, beverage, cosmetics, and industrial and pharmaceutical companies. The Starch segment offers starches, saccharification products, ethanol, and byproducts, which include animal feed and fertilizers to food, paper, textiles, industrial chemicals, pharmaceuticals, cosmetics, petroleum, and animal feed industries. The Fruit segment produces fruit preparations for the dairy, ice cream, baked goods, and food service industries; and fruit juice concentrates, not-from- concentrate juices, fruit wines, natural aromas, and beverage bases for beverage industry. The company was founded in 1837 and is headquartered in Mannheim, Germany. Südzucker AG is a subsidiary of Süddeutsche Zuckerrübenverwertungs-Genossenschaft eG.

Stock analysis

Südzucker AG (SZU) currently trades at €12.54, while our model-based Fair Value estimate is €12.18, so the stock looks roughly fairly valued today (gap 3.0%).

Valuation

Bull case: the Multiples group reads highest at a median of €19.89 per share, and 2 of the 9 models we run sit above the €12.54 price.

Bear case: the Dividend Discount group reads lowest at €2.11, and 7 of the 9 models stay below the price. Evidence for this calculation is medium.

Scenario range: €6.67 (bear) to €14.25 (bull), the price of €12.54 sits inside it. Bear and bull are the same models on cautious and optimistic assumptions, a range, not a price target.

Quality & growth

The Quality Score stands at 38/100 (below-average quality), in the Consumer Defensive sector.

Weak Growth: Revenue growth is inconsistent: the periods point in different directions, so there is no trend to rely on.

Südzucker AG reported revenue of €8.4B in FY2026 versus €7.6B in FY2022, a compound +2.4%/yr. Reported net income was −€362M in FY2026.

Key figures

Market cap €2.6B · P/E ex one-offs 56.7 · P/S ratio 0.29 · EPS (TTM) €−1.75 · Dividend yield 1.7% · Net margin −4.3% · Return on equity −8.6% · Return on assets (EBIT) 4.1%.

Competitive moat

Our AI-assisted moat analysis scores the competitive advantage at 38 out of 100 (low confidence).

What moves the price

The share trades about 4% below its 52-week high and 40% above its 52-week low, currently above its 200-day average.

For context, the median of 10 Consumer Defensive peers we cover trades at 3% fair-value upside, at −3%, SZU screens richer than that median.

Fair Value models

Bear €6.67 Fair Value €12.18 Bull €14.25

Model ⓘEach model values the company its own way (discounted cash flow, earnings, assets, dividends). The fair value above is their evidence-weighted blend, not the output of a single model. Bear ⓘBear = the cautious scenario: the same model computed with conservative anchors (lower growth, margins and valuation multiples). Together with Bull it frames a plausible valuation range, not a price target.BaseBull ⓘBull = the optimistic scenario: the same model computed with favourable anchors (higher growth, margins and valuation multiples). Together with Bear it frames a plausible valuation range, not a price target. If a model's bull case is above four times its base value, the table shows that limit with a > sign (like the overall Bull above): beyond it no assumption holds. Evidence ⓘEvidence = how well-backed THIS model's estimate is for this stock (0–100): how complete and reliable its input data are, and how well the model fits the company. The final Fair Value is an evidence-weighted blend, so better-evidenced models count more. Green ≥70, amber 50–69, grey below 50.

Highest evidence

FCF DCF €4.42 €7.73 €14.25 74

Growth DCF €4.79 €8.02 €13.81 74

5Y EBITDA Exit €8.31 €15.58 €25.54 71

All 10 models by family

DCF Models

FCF DCF €4.42 €7.73 €14.25 74

5Y Revenue Exit n/a n/a €0.9700 67

5Y EBITDA Exit €8.31 €15.58 €25.54 71

10Y Revenue Exit €1.04 €2.01 €2.97 63

10Y EBITDA Exit €6.67 €12.18 €18.42 65

Dividend Discount

Gordon GGM €1.76 €2.11 €2.49 67

DDM Multi-Stage €1.76 €2.31 €2.97 65

Multiples

EV/EBITDA €13.46 €19.89 €26.32 66

Asset-Based

NCAV (Graham) €5.26 €7.05 €10.52 54

Growth DCF

Growth DCF €4.79 €8.02 €13.81 74

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Quality Score breakdown

Overall quality 38/100

Of which business quality 36 · Market factors (momentum, volatility) 72

Profitability 20

Margins and returns on capital today

Quality Growth 16

Are margins and returns improving?

Cashflow 16

Earnings quality: real cash, not paper profit

Fin. Strength 25

Balance sheet, leverage, solvency risk

Investment 94

Disciplined investing over empire-building

Low Volatility 83

Calm price path (market factor)

Momentum 61

Price trend over the last 3–12 months (market factor)

52W Momentum 80

Distance to the 52-week high (market factor)

Net Issuance 82

Share count: buybacks or dilution?

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Revenue & earnings trend

Growth Quality ⓘGrowth is valuable only when reinvestment earns attractive returns (Aswath Damodaran): sustainable growth depends on return on capital, reinvestment and efficiency. Basis: total company revenue over the periods shown on the cards (3Y/5Y/all years), not per share, so a merger can show up as a growth jump; per-share earnings growth is in the value-creation card. 34/100

Revenue growth is inconsistent: the periods point in different directions, so there is no trend to rely on.

Revenue growth 1 year

−13.8%

Revenue growth 3 years ⓘMeasures the company's TOTAL revenue from reported annual statements: compound average growth per year (CAGR) from the fiscal year 3, 5 or N years back to the most recent comparable fiscal year. Not per share: buybacks do not change this number, and a merger can appear as a growth jump. Per-share growth (which does include buybacks) is in the value-creation card.

−4.2%

Revenue growth 5 years ⓘMeasures the company's TOTAL revenue from reported annual statements: compound average growth per year (CAGR) from the fiscal year 3, 5 or N years back to the most recent comparable fiscal year. Not per share: buybacks do not change this number, and a merger can appear as a growth jump. Per-share growth (which does include buybacks) is in the value-creation card.

+4.6%

Start year 2021 (pandemic). Over 10 years: +2.7% a year

Revenue growth 18 years ⓘMeasures the company's TOTAL revenue from reported annual statements: compound average growth per year (CAGR) from the fiscal year 3, 5 or N years back to the most recent comparable fiscal year. Not per share: buybacks do not change this number, and a merger can appear as a growth jump. Per-share growth (which does include buybacks) is in the value-creation card.

+2.1%

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Profit margin (trend) ⓘOperating margin then vs now, from reported annual statements. A falling margin after a boom year is the classic peak-earnings signal: the growth rate then leans on an inflated base.

1.0% (2021) → 0.4% (2026)

What shareholders gained per year ⓘWe only publish this rate when it is defensible. Reason: fiscal 2026 is a loss year, no rate is defined from a loss

not computed

Growth Forecast

A lot of optimism in the price

The price assumes more growth than the company has delivered so far and more than analysts expect.

What the price assumes ⓘThis turns our valuation around: instead of asking what the share is worth, it asks what growth the current price requires. It uses the cash the company keeps after all spending (free cash flow), the same discount rate as our models, five years of growth, then slowing evenly to 2 % a year by year ten. Compared with the analysts' sales forecasts extended to the same five years (at least three analysts, for context only, it does not enter the Fair Value): within 3 percentage points counts as "in line" (amber), below that little optimism (green), above that a lot of optimism (red).

+56.6%

Yearly growth needed for the next five years to justify today's price.

What forecasts expect ⓘAnalysts publish sales forecasts for the next two fiscal years. For the years after that, growth slows evenly to 2 % a year by year ten (2 % is the long-run rate our models use). Projected years are marked as such.

+3.0%

Yearly sales growth analysts expect, extended to five years.

After inflation (euro area: IMF forecast 2.2% a year to 2030, 2.6% from 2016 to 2025) that is about +53.3% a year for the price and +0.8% for the forecasts.

Forecast 2027 (sales)+0.0%

Forecast 2028 (sales)+4.1%

Projected 2029 (sales)+3.9%

Projected 2030 (sales)+3.6%

Projected 2031 (sales)+3.3%

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Peer GroupⓘHow this stock ranks against its industry: the green marker is this stock, the band is the typical 25–75% peer range, and the tick is the median.Packaged Foods · 652 stocks

Beats the industry median on 3/13 measures

Overall it trails its industry peers.

Valuation

Quality Score 38 · Bottom 25%

Fair Value upside −2.9% · Below median

Profitability

Return on assets 1.3% · Below median

Net margin (TTM) −4.0% · Bottom 25%

Operating margin (TTM) 3.0% · Below median

Growth and dividend

Revenue growth −4.4% · Bottom 25%

Dividend yield (TTM) 1.7% · Below median

Balance sheet

Debt / equity 0.73× · Highest 25%

Valuation Multiplesvs Packaged Foods median · lower = cheaper

P/B 1.36× · Cheaper than median

P/S (TTM) 0.35× · Cheaper than median

P/FCF 145.5× · Priciest 25%

EV/EBITDA 7.9× · Cheaper than median

PEG 17.34× · Priciest 25%

Strength profile in five axes (Snowflake)

This stock

Sector peers

VALUE (fair-value potential)29 · sector 33

FUTURE (revenue growth)0 · sector 19

PAST (return on equity)0 · sector 30

HEALTH (low debt)63 · sector 96

DIVIDEND (yield)35 · sector 58

Context: sector, industry, market

Values & ESG

Does this company touch areas you may want to avoid? The classification is inferred from sector and industry.

None of the checked exposures detected

Similar stocks

10 more Packaged Foods stocks, each showing price versus our Fair Value estimate.

Stock	Price	Fair Value	vs Fair Value
Nestlé S.A NESN	CHF 77.17	CHF 59.51	−23%
Danone S.A BN	€59.56	€50.65	−15%
Foshan Haitian Flavouring and Food Company 603288	¥33.93	¥37.32	+10%
The Kraft Heinz Company KHC	$23.63	$29.20	+24%
Nestlé India Limited NESTLEIND	₹1,363	₹724.74	−47%
Inner Mongolia Yili Industrial Group 600887	¥26.90	¥41.84	+56%
Yihai Kerry Arawana Holdings 300999	¥24.55	¥9.98	−59%
General Mills, Inc GIS	$33.64	$34.59	+3%
Wilmar International Limited F34	3.68 SGD	5.14 SGD	+40%
Kerry Group KRZ	€85.55	€59.96	−30%

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Südzucker AG · Fair Value
€12.18 −3%Fair Value
Calculator →

<a href="https://www.fairvalue-calculator.com/stock/SZU" target="_blank" rel="nofollow noopener" style="display:inline-flex;align-items:center;gap:12px;box-sizing:border-box;font-family:system-ui,-apple-system,Segoe UI,Roboto,sans-serif;text-decoration:none;background:#0f1814;color:#eaf2ed;border:1px solid #2a3a30;border-radius:12px;padding:12px 16px;max-width:360px"><span style="line-height:1.35"><span style="font-size:12px;color:#9fb0a8">Südzucker AG · Fair Value</span><br><b style="font-size:20px">€12.18</b> <span style="color:#e0816f;font-weight:700;font-size:14px">−3%</span></span><span style="font-size:11px;color:var(--fvc-g-mitte);font-weight:700;margin-left:auto;text-align:right;line-height:1.3">Fair&nbsp;Value<br>Calculator&nbsp;→</span></a>

Cite: Fair Value Calculator (2026). "Südzucker AG Fair Value". https://www.fairvalue-calculator.com/stock/SZU

Frequently asked questions

Is Südzucker AG (SZU) overvalued or undervalued?

As of Sep 27, 2026, our model estimates a fair value of €12.18 versus a price of €12.54, about −3% upside (fairly valued).

What is the fair value of SZU?

Our model-based fair value for Südzucker AG is €12.18 (as of Sep 27, 2026), built from audited fundamentals. The current price: €12.54.

What is the quality score of SZU?

Südzucker AG has a Quality Score of 38/100. It measures business quality (profitability, growth, cash flow, balance-sheet strength, investment discipline, share issuance). Market factors such as price momentum and volatility do not enter the number; they are shown separately in the detail view.

What is the price target for Südzucker AG (SZU)?

Our model-based price target is the fair value of €12.18 (as of Sep 27, 2026) from 10 valuation models. Cautious scenario €6.67, optimistic scenario €14.25. It is a calculation from audited fundamentals, not an analyst target.

What is the Südzucker AG stock forecast for 2026?

Our models put fair value at €12.18, about −3% upside versus a price of €12.54 (fairly valued). Cautious scenario €6.67, optimistic scenario €14.25. The calculation is refreshed regularly with new filings.

What is the revenue of Südzucker AG (SZU)?

Südzucker AG reported trailing-twelve-month revenue of about €8.3B (latest available figure, as of Sep 27, 2026).

Does Südzucker AG pay a dividend?

Südzucker AG currently shows a dividend yield of about 1.73% relative to its recent price (as of Sep 27, 2026).

What growth is priced into Südzucker AG (SZU)?

For today's price to be fair in a discounted-cash-flow model, Südzucker AG would have to grow free cash flow by +56.6 % per year for five years (discount rate 9.5 %, then slowing evenly to 2 % perpetual growth by year ten). Over the last 5 years revenue grew +4.6 % per year. As of Sep 27, 2026.

What discount rate (WACC) does the fair value of SZU use?

Our models discount Südzucker AG at 9.5 %: a base by market capitalisation (mid), country premium for Germany. The same rate applies in all 26 models.

What is a reverse DCF?

A reverse DCF turns the usual calculation around. Instead of deriving a value from assumptions, it takes today's price as given and asks: what free-cash-flow growth would a company have to deliver for exactly this price to be fair? The result is not a forecast but the expectation already priced in. For Südzucker AG that is +56.6 % per year a year over ten years, using the same discount rate (9.5 %) and the same formula as our fair value.

How much growth has Südzucker AG (SZU) delivered so far?

Over the past 5 years revenue at Südzucker AG grew +4.6 % a year. The price currently implies +56.6 % per year free-cash-flow growth a year. Comparing the two shows how much confidence is in the price: if it demands more than has been delivered, the business has to accelerate for the maths to work.

How fast is the sector of Südzucker AG (SZU) growing?

The median revenue growth in the sector is +2.7 % a year. That is the yardstick for the growth priced into Südzucker AG (+56.6 % per year a year): it shows whether the expectation is within the usual range or beyond it.

What is the free cash flow yield of Südzucker AG (SZU)?

The free-cash-flow yield on the price is 0.78 %: that much free cash flow Südzucker AG produces per unit of market value. When it exceeds the discount rate of our models (9.5 %), the business already earns more than its cost of capital demands, and the price needs little additional growth.

What is the intrinsic value of Südzucker AG (SZU)?

Intrinsic value and fair value mean the same thing: what the business is worth on its numbers, independent of the share price. For Südzucker AG it is €12.18 per share (as of Sep 27, 2026), against a price of €12.54. It is the blended result of 10 valuation models (cash flow, earnings, asset, dividend).

Is Südzucker AG stock overvalued or undervalued in 2026?

As of Sep 27, 2026, SZU trades above its calculated fair value: price €12.54, fair value €12.18, a gap of about −3% (fairly valued). The calculation is refreshed with each new quarterly report, so the verdict can change during the year.

Is fair value the same as the market price of SZU?

No. The price is what the market pays today (€12.54); the fair value is what the company's own numbers justify (€12.18). For Südzucker AG the two are €0.3600 per share apart. That gap is exactly why we show both numbers side by side.

How much is Südzucker AG worth?

The market values Südzucker AG at about €2.6B (market capitalisation, as of Sep 27, 2026). Per share that is €12.54; our models calculate a fair value of €12.18 per share.

What do the bullish and bearish scenarios say about SZU?

Our models span a range for Südzucker AG: cautious scenario €6.67, base €12.18, optimistic €14.25 per share (as of Sep 27, 2026, price €12.54). The range comes from different growth and margin assumptions, not from analyst opinions.

What is the PEG ratio of SZU?

The PEG ratio of Südzucker AG is 17.34 (P/E divided by earnings growth, as of Sep 27, 2026). That is above 1, so the growth is already paid for in the price.

How solid is the balance sheet of Südzucker AG (SZU)?

Balance-sheet figures for Südzucker AG (as of Sep 27, 2026): return on equity −8.6%, debt of 0.73 per unit of equity. They feed the Quality Score of 38/100, which measures business quality independently of the share price.

How far is SZU from its 52-week high?

Südzucker AG trades at €12.54, about 4% below its 52-week high of €13.00 and 40% above the low of €8.97 (as of Sep 28, 2026). Distance from the high says nothing about value: that is what the fair value of €12.18 is for.

Which stocks are comparable to Südzucker AG?

From the same area (Consumer Defensive) we also value Nestlé S.A, Danone S.A, Foshan Haitian Flavouring and Food Company, The Kraft Heinz Company, among others. Each of them has its own fair-value calculation on this site using the same models, so the comparison is like for like.

Is Südzucker AG stock attractive at the current price?

The data as of Sep 27, 2026: price €12.54, calculated fair value €12.18 (−3%), Quality Score 38/100, from 10 models. Whether that fits your horizon and risk tolerance is your call. We provide the calculation, not investment advice.

How is the fair value of SZU calculated?

We run Südzucker AG through 10 models from four families: discounted cash flow, earnings models, asset and balance-sheet models, and dividend models. Every model gets the same audited fundamentals; the result is the weighted average of €12.18, with the spread shown as a cautious and an optimistic scenario.

Is it still worth investing in stocks now?

The global stock market currently sits 15.9 % above its aggregate fair value. Südzucker AG itself currently trades above fair value. An expensive market is no reason to stay out and no reason to buy everything at once: keep a broad savings plan running, buy single stocks only with money you can do without, and hold part of your money liquid while the market is high. The full picture including sectors is on is it worth investing now.

What is the share price of Südzucker AG (SZU)?

The closing price on Sep 28, 2026 was €12.54. Our model-based fair value is €12.18, about −3% upside (fairly valued). We carry closing prices from our data provider, not a live tick.

What should I pay attention to with Südzucker AG right now?

The price sits close to our fair value, market and models broadly agree here, little valuation tension. A fairly wide model range (€6.67 to €14.25) leaves room in how you read the outcome.

Key figures of Südzucker AG

How large is the market capitalisation of Südzucker AG (SZU)?

The market capitalisation of Südzucker AG is €2.6B. The stock-market value of the whole company: share price times number of shares. It is what the market asks for the entire business today.

What is the P/E ratio of Südzucker AG (SZU) excluding one-off items?

Excluding one-off items, the price-to-earnings ratio of Südzucker AG is 56.7 (fiscal year 2026, the reported result was a loss).

What is the P/S ratio of Südzucker AG (SZU)?

The price-to-sales ratio of Südzucker AG is 0.29 (last twelve months). Price to sales: market value relative to yearly revenue. Useful when profit is thin or distorted.

What are the earnings per share of Südzucker AG (SZU)?

Earnings per share at Südzucker AG are €−1.75. Earnings per share over the last twelve months: total profit spread across every single share.

What is the dividend yield of Südzucker AG (SZU)?

The dividend yield of Südzucker AG is 1.7%. Yearly dividend relative to the share price. 3% pays 3 per 100 invested. Below: how much of profit is used for it.

What is the net margin of Südzucker AG (SZU)?

The net margin of Südzucker AG is −4.3% (fiscal year 2026). How much of every unit of revenue ends up as profit. 10% means 10 cents of profit per dollar of sales.

What is the return on equity of Südzucker AG (SZU)?

The return on equity (ROE) of Südzucker AG is −8.6% (last twelve months). Profit relative to shareholders' equity, how efficiently the company works with its owners' money.

What is the EBIT return on assets of Südzucker AG (SZU)?

On an EBIT basis the return on assets of Südzucker AG is 4.1% (avg 5y). Operating profit (EBIT) relative to everything the company owns, as a multi-year average. It describes the business model rather than one good or bad year.

What is the operating margin of Südzucker AG (SZU)?

The operating margin of Südzucker AG is 3.0% (last twelve months). Profit from the core business (before interest and taxes) relative to revenue.

How fast is revenue growing at Südzucker AG (SZU)?

Revenue at Südzucker AG is growing −4.4% versus a year earlier (3y avg −4.2%). How much revenue grew versus a year earlier (YoY). The 3-year average next to it puts the single year in context.

How fast are earnings growing at Südzucker AG (SZU)?

Earnings per share at Südzucker AG are growing −71.9% versus a year earlier. How much earnings per share grew versus a year earlier.

How much net debt does Südzucker AG (SZU) carry?

The net debt of Südzucker AG is €2.5B (fiscal year 2026). Debt minus cash on hand. The note shows how many years of free cash flow could in theory pay it off.

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